methodology for estimating energy costs, retail costs and ... · methodology for estimating energy...
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© Frontier Economics Pty Ltd, Melbourne.
Draft methodology workshopMethodology for estimating energy costs, retail costs and retail margin
2 November 2006
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Scope of work – two linked consultancies
Frontier have been retained by IPART for two related consultancies:
Energy costs – Frontier is to provide advice on the cost range that should be allowed for energy costs.Retail costs and retail margin – Frontier is to provide advice on the amount that should be allowed for retail costs and retail margin.
Appropriate allowances for these three elements are linked. In particular:
the appropriate allowance for retail margin depends on the riskiness of the purchasing.the appropriate allowance for retail margin depends on the the costs included in the allowance for retail costs.
Important that there is a consistent approach to ensure appropriate relationship
between energy costs and margin. Also to ensure no double counting.
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A consistent approach
ENERGY COSTS
RETAIL COSTS
RETAIL MARGINRELATED COSTS
(1) LRMC of generation
(2) Risk management
METHODS
(1) Bottom-up
(2) Benchmarking
METHODS
(1) Bottom-up
(2) Benchmarking
(3) Expected returnsRESULTS
RESULTS
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© Frontier Economics Pty Ltd, Melbourne.
ENERGY COSTS
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Key Terms of Reference related to energy costs
General principle
“… in order to promote retail competition and investment, regulated retail tariffs which are below the cost of supply should be moved to full cost reflectivity.”
Matters to consider:
“an allowance for electricity purchase costs based on an assessment of the long-run marginal cost of electricity generation from a portfolio of new entrant generation to supply the load profile of customers remaining on regulated retail tariffs.”
“recognition that ETEF will cease operation within the determination period”
“recognition of hedging, risk management and transaction costs faced by retailers in theabsence of the ETEF”
“recognition of the forecasting risks faced by retailers in the absence of the ETEF”
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Interpretation of ToR - energy costs
The ToR refers to two aspects of energy costs to be considered:
Long run marginal costs (LRMC)Costs associated with managing roll-off of ETEF
These concepts are compatible when a proper account of risks and the costs of
managing these risks is taken – for example, risk of plant outages, demand and
price spikes.
Therefore, look at costs of efficient generation mix, adjusted for the prudent
costs of managing the real life risk of purchasing electricity in the NEM on
behalf of regulated customers.
ToR identify that these cost concepts are to reflect the differences in the load
profile of each standard retailer.
Energy costs are to include an allowance for green and NEM fees.
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Energy modelling frameworkDemandNetwork
Existing plantNew plant costs
Regulatory policies
New plant buildContract levels
Industry structureStrategic players &
bid options
Price distributionsPlant dispatch
Customer loadContract bookForward curve
Plant build Pool pricesPlant output
Efficient frontier’soptimal portfolio
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Energy modelling framework
As ETEF is phased out, retailers will be increasingly exposed to energy
purchase risk.
Frontier’s modelling framework will take this risk into account when estimating
energy costs:
WHIRLYGIG determines efficient mix of investment
SPARK determines price distributions
STRIKE determines efficient mixes of hedging products to meet load profile
Outcome for each load profile:
a frontier representing the efficient mixes of hedging products to meet the load profile
the costs and risks of each mix of hedging products
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LRMC approach –WHIRLYGIG
WHIRLYGIG will be used to estimate LRMC of meeting stand alone regulated
load of each retailer.
WHIRLYGIG used in this study as a long-term electricity investment model:
provides optimal (least-cost) mix of investments and operation patterns to meet demand for electricity:
• optimal size, type, location, timing and operation of supply and demand options
optimises total costs (fixed + variable) using mixed integer programming techniques
includes a number of constraints, including:• greenhouse targets (technology specific, cap & trade)• limits on availability of certain supply and demand options• project lead times• system reserve requirements• lumpy investments
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SPARK – overview
In order to determine the costs of hedging products over the determination period,
it is necessary to form a view as to spot prices.
SPARK is a short-term electricity market simulation model:
incorporates key physical and economic characteristics of the power system
incorporates price setting rules
SPARK outcomes:
optimal (least-cost) dispatch of plant to meet demand
a set of sustainable generator bids for every market condition (using game theory)
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Game theory example (1)
$10
$100
$15
Price ($/MWh)
Quantity (MW)
Player A
Demand = 290 MW
200 MW 100 MW
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Game theory example (2)
$10
$100
$15
Price ($/MWh)
Quantity (MW)
Player A Player B
Demand = 290 MW
Player B
Bid 100MW Bid 90MW
Bid 100MW $500 , $500 $9000 , $8100 Player A
Bid 90MW $8100 , $9000 $8100 , $8100
100 MW 100 MW 100 MW Quantity (MW)
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Game theory example (contracts)
$10
$100
$15
Price ($/MWh)
Quantity (MW)
Player A Player B
Demand = 290 MW
Player B
Bid 100MW Bid 90MW
Bid 100MW $500 , $500 $1350 , $8100Player A
Bid 90MW $450 , $9000 $450 , $8100
90 MW swap contract @ $15/MWh
100 MW 100 MW 100 MW
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Operation of SPARK
SPARK is formulated in fundamentally the same way that WHIRLYGIG is
formulated.
SPARK is run for each level of demand:
generators are divided into two categories – strategic or non-strategic
strategic generators are assigned a range of bidding choices
for each combination of bidding choices, SPARK computes prices and operating profits
SPARK searches for those outcomes that are Nash equilibria
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Accounting for risk - STRIKE
We will estimate the impact of energy purchase risk on energy cost by adopting
a market-based approach:
Consideration of the portfolio of retail ‘assets’:• Characteristic of customer load (need data on current and forecast load,
including volatility)• Available hedging instruments (need data on form, quantity and price of
available contracts over review period)• Characteristics of spot prices (need data on spot price levels by half hour over
review period)
Determine optimal suite of purchasing instruments having regard to risks of different ‘portfolios’ of energy purchasing instruments
Approach will give a range of purchasing outcomes – to reflect different levels of risk
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Energy purchase risk – portfolio optimisation
= inefficient mixes
risk
cost
increased risk
increased cost
efficient frontier
C1
C2
R2R1
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STRIKE – outcomes
STRIKE determines an efficient frontier for each business for the load profile:
no greater reward can be achieved for less risk
no lower risk can be achieved for greater reward
The efficient frontier is dependent on:
the forward curve
spot expectations
load expectations
existing book
time period of analysis
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Recommended energy costs
For each standard retailer, Frontier will estimate a range for each of:
LRMC of new entrant generation
market-price of managing risk
Recommended range of energy costs will reflect the results of both these
estimates.
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© Frontier Economics Pty Ltd, Melbourne.
RETAIL COSTS and RETAIL MARGIN
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Key Terms of Reference related to retail costs and margins
ToR refers to the retail costs and retail margin of a mass market new entrant
(MMNE).
What is a MMNE?
The ToR indicates that a MMNE is of sufficient size to achieve economies of scale.
The ToR does not define the form of a MMNE. Broad options are: • Option 1: A stand alone retailer serving mass market customers only (perhaps
just in NSW)• Option 2: A large retailer that operates elsewhere in the NEM but does not have
significant load in NSW
Guided by what would happen in the practice – Option 2. • Option 1 would probably not achieve economies of scale
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Retail costs – two approaches
Two approaches to estimate retail costs of a MMNE:
Bottom-up estimate – principally based on information provided by retailers
Benchmarking – against retail costs in other regulatory decisions
Recommended range for retail costs will consider results from both approaches.
Two principal components of MMNE retail costs:
Customer acquisition costs – these are costs that a MMNE would face in acquiring small retail customers
Retail operating costs – these are costs a MMNE would face in supplying small retail customers in NSW
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Retail costs – bottom-up approach
Total allowance for retail costs built up from individual components of retail
costs.
Bottom-up approach based on requested information:
details on customer acquisition costs
details on retail operating costs
details on customer numbers
details on how costs are allocated to small retail customers
Responses used:
to estimate retail costs by standard retail area
to estimate the extent of economies of scale
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Testing reasonableness of bottom-up results
Reasonableness of results from bottom-up approach tested:
cost estimates compared over time
breakdown of cost components, and allocation method, compared across retailers
cost estimates compared against third-party estimates of retail costs
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Retail costs – benchmarking
Retail costs informed by benchmarking against other regulatory decisions.
Benchmarking against other regulatory decisions must consider:
economies of scale of regulated retailers
treatment of customer acquisition costs
It is important that like is compared with like:
consider the costs included in the retail cost allowance from other decisions
greater weight given to regulatory decisions dealing with retailers that are most comparable to a MMNE in NSW
make sure that all costs are counted, but only counted once
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Retail margin – three approaches
Three approaches will be used to estimate the retail margin for a MMNE:
bottom-up approach – build retail margin from its individual components
benchmarking – against retail margins in other regulatory decisions
expected returns approach – estimate retail margin that provides appropriate cash flows to electricity retailers
Recommended retail costs will consider results from each of these three
approaches.
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Retail margin – bottom-up approach
Bottom-up approach estimates contribution to total margin from each risk.
Contribution of each risk to total margin can be calculated:
by benchmarking against outcomes in other jurisdictions/industries
by considering costs that retailers face, as requested from retailers
Approach must be consistent with energy costs and retail costs, so that there is
no double-counting.
Bottom-up approach has been proposed by Integral.
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Retail margin – benchmarking
Retail margin informed by benchmarking against other regulatory decisions.
Benchmarking against other regulatory decisions must consider:
risks to which regulated retailers are exposed – in particular, the extent to which retailers are exposed to energy purchase risk
Again, important to compare like-with-like:
consider risks included in retail margin in other decisions
greater weight given to regulatory decisions dealing with retailers that are most comparable to a MMNE in NSW
make sure that all costs and risks are counted, but only counted once
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Expected returns approach – overview
Expected returns approach tests the reasonableness of retail margins against
market data from comparable businesses. The return must simply provide
reasonable compensation for the systematic risk that is borne.
The approach is as follows:
for an assumed retail margin and energy acquisition/hedging strategy, estimate:• possible cash flows to the MMNE• the risk associated with those cash flows
these imply a range of indicators for the MMNE, including:• market risk• discount rate• value of business
each of these can be benchmarked against comparables to test reasonableness of retail margin
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Expected returns approach – overview
RETAIL COSTS
ENERGY COSTS
OTHER COSTS
VOLUMES
VARIABILITY / RISK OF CASH FLOWS
CASH FLOWS
MARKET RISK
Benchmark against comparables to test margin
DISCOUNT RATE
VALUE OF BUSINESS
ASSUMED RETAIL MARGIN
and
Benchmark against comparables to test margin
Benchmark against comparables to test margin
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Expected returns approach – risks
A key advantage of expected returns approach is that it can reflect risks in a
systematic way. The objective is to ensure that an appropriate return is
provided for the risk involved.
Outputs from STRIKE are used as inputs into expected returns approach:
identify representative energy purchasing strategies from output of STRIKE
STRIKE provides an estimate of energy costs and risks for each of these representative strategies
these energy costs and risks used as an input to estimate an appropriate retail margin associated with each representative strategy
Result is a link between allowed energy cost and allowed retail margin. There is
a matching of return with risk.
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STRIKE output
Energy costs
Risks
Efficient frontier
Each representative strategy reflects a particular mix of hedging products
There is a distribution of energy costs for each representative strategy
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Estimating cash flows and risk
Corporate finance and regulatory practice is that returns are required to
compensate systematic (or market-related) risk.
Net cash flows to a MMNE are determined by several inputs, some of which
depend on the state of the economy and therefore have a systematic
component:
retail margin (which is independent of the state of the economy)retail costs (which is largely independent of the state of the economy)energy costs, as determined by STRIKE (which depend on the state of the economy)other costs (which may depend on the state of the economy) volume (which depends on the state of the economy)
There is a link between net cash flows to a MMNE and the state of the
economy. This link is the systematic risk of the MMNE, which requires a fair
return.
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Benchmarking
Calculating the link between net cash flows to a MMNE and the state of the
economy enables a series of benchmarking exercises to be conducted:
the level of systematic risk implied by a particular retail margin can be benchmarked against other entities.the return required for that systematic risk can be benchmarked against other entities and regulatory determinationsthe expected cash flows and required return implied by a particular retail margin imply a valuation of the business. This enables a whole range of ratios to be benchmarked, including:
• enterprise value per customer – i.e. implied value of each customer• enterprise value to earnings
The idea is to ensure that the risk, return, and business value that result from a
particular retail margin are commensurate with industry benchmarks,
comparable firms, and commercial common sense.
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Recommended retail margin
The recommended retail margin will be informed by the results of the three
approaches:
where the results converge, estimated retail margin can be recommended with greater confidence
where the results do not converge, the explanations for divergence will be investigated – where the explanations suggest one of the approaches is more appropriate to MMNE, the results of this approach will be given more weight
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Disclaimer
None of Frontier Economics Pty Ltd (including the directors and employees) make any representation or warranty as to the accuracy or completeness of this report. Nor shall they have any liability (whether arising from negligence or otherwise) for any representations (express or implied) or information contained in, or for any omissions from, the report or any written or oral communications transmitted in the course of the project.
The Frontier Economics Network
Frontier Economics Limited in Australia is a member of the Frontier Economics network, which consists of separate companies based in Australia (Melbourne & Sydney) and Europe (London & Cologne). The companies are independently owned, and legal commitments entered into by any one company do not impose any obligations on other companies in the network. All views expressed in this document are the views of Frontier Economics Pty Ltd.
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