methodological lessons joint evaluation of conflict prevention and peace-building in drc, 2002-2010...

Methodological Lessons

Joint Evaluation of Conflict Prevention and Peace-Building in

DRC, 2002-2010

Day 2, Presentation in Oslo‘What Have We learnt From the Application Phase?’

17 February 2011

The General Feedback On the Draft Working Guidance

1. Feedback received from the Congo evaluation team, but also from recent work with USAID-OTI, Ausaid, and training given by Channel on evaluation of CPPB.

2. The Guidance is useful introduction, especially for practitioners with limited experience of evaluation. Particularly useful are the overview of key steps and the development of the evaluation questions.

3. Intrigued by Theories of Change and importance of conflict analysis. Find Theories of Change better for project level.

4. However the Guidance does not tackle the “how to” questions: conflict analysis (which, when, how), testing theories of change, baselines.

Channel Research 2

The Evaluative Framework Used for the Congo Evaluation

Effects on the Conflict

1. Evaluation Questions & Criteria


2. Sample of Projects2. Sample of Projects

3. Conflict Analysis3. Conflict Analysis

4. Research Hypotheses and

Themes


ThemesOutcomes Outcomes








Themes



Good to have simple questions but tricky to analyse by “results”.








Themes



Issue N° 1:No Theories of ChangeConfused Strategies

Channel Research 6

Reasons for the Weakening of Theories of Change & Strategies as Reference

1. Seizing Opportunities

• Implementation requires a response to constraints and opportunities as they arise. •These cannot be planned for in advance so plans and objectives are not a good evaluation point of reference

1. Seizing Opportunities

• Implementation requires a response to constraints and opportunities as they arise. •These cannot be planned for in advance so plans and objectives are not a good evaluation point of reference

2. Compartmentalisation

• Too many levels and too many instruments to carry out an analysis•Severe lack of documentation, issues of disclosure, many “indirect” effects.

2. Compartmentalisation

• Too many levels and too many instruments to carry out an analysis•Severe lack of documentation, issues of disclosure, many “indirect” effects.

3. Problems of Reconstruction

• Theories of Change conceived as an elicitive tool in planning• Retrospective interpretation opens up real chances of contested findings, with no clear data sets

3. Problems of Reconstruction

• Theories of Change conceived as an elicitive tool in planning• Retrospective interpretation opens up real chances of contested findings, with no clear data sets

4. End State?

• Problems in defining terms such as peace and conflict. •Usually depends on the identification of an end-state. •This may not be explicit or shared by all stakeholders or those within a single programme

4. End State?

• Problems in defining terms such as peace and conflict. •Usually depends on the identification of an end-state. •This may not be explicit or shared by all stakeholders or those within a single programme








Themes



Issue N° 2:No Conflict Analyses Used, and No Conflict Sensitivity Analysis

Our understanding of peace depends on where we are








Themes



Issue N° 3:Finding the right balance in the sample is not easy

An excessive number of projects.A database selected before the evaluation and a great difficulty in accessing information for these projects.

Consequence:Time spent to obtain information: 80% (to avoid focus on + transparent)Sample may not represent the full range of interventionsStrategic dimensions were lost. Case study approach weakened.

The Question of Sampling

Are We on the Right Track?

Channel Research

Channel Research 12

Evaluation Communities Must Become More Closely Engaged

- -

Desk Bound Donors only

-Theories of

ChangeResults

reporting

0Simple Eval Questions

Good consultation

+

Many field visits

Regular reporting

++

Drivers based

Public workshops

Key factor A

Key factor B

Negative / Positive Change

A Strong Steering Committee willing to arbitrate between approaches and to track the evaluation team in country(ies)

A highly structured approach with detailed phasing and willingness to communicate

Internal & Static Conflict Analysis

Resource Conscious Steering Committee

- - ++

1

5Engagement

Public Uptake

Channel Research 13

Specific Recommendation for the Final Guidance: Recommend Care in 3 Key Stages and Outline Unique Nature of Conflict Interventions

Optimal scenario

Drawing Conclusions

Sequencing

Conflict AnalysisConflict Analysis

Case StudiesCase Studies

Outcome to FactorsOutcome to Factors

Channel Research 14

Specific Recommendation for the Final Guidance: Recommend Care in 3 Key Stages and Outline Unique Nature of Conflict Interventions

ToR Preparation Collection Analysis

Optimal scenario

Drawing Conclusions

Sequencing

Conflict AnalysisConflict Analysis

Case StudiesCase Studies

Outcome to FactorsOutcome to Factors

Conflict analysis must precede sampling

Conflict analysis must precede sampling

methodological lessons joint evaluation of conflict prevention and peace-building in drc, 2002-2010...

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