Meteorology 485Meteorology 485

Long Range ForecastingLong Range Forecasting

Friday, January 23, 2004Friday, January 23, 2004

Long Range GuidanceLong Range Guidance

Numerical ModelsNumerical Models IRI – International Research Institute for Climate IRI – International Research Institute for Climate

PredictionPrediction Columbia University (Palisades Campus)Columbia University (Palisades Campus) Atmospheric General Circulation Model (AGCM) with Atmospheric General Circulation Model (AGCM) with

forced SSTforced SST Four different AGCM are run with either one or two Four different AGCM are run with either one or two

different SST’sdifferent SST’s Each AGCM is run 10 times out to 9 monthsEach AGCM is run 10 times out to 9 months Components: CCM3.2 , ECHAM3.6, NCEP-MRF9, NSIPPComponents: CCM3.2 , ECHAM3.6, NCEP-MRF9, NSIPP SST: Each ocean basin initialized separately (PSST, SST: Each ocean basin initialized separately (PSST,

ASST)ASST)See: See:

http://iri.columbia.edu/forecast/climate/fcst_dscrp.html/http://iri.columbia.edu/forecast/climate/fcst_dscrp.html/

ModelsModels IRI Outlook for Feb-Mar-Apr, 2004IRI Outlook for Feb-Mar-Apr, 2004

Long Range GuidanceLong Range Guidance

Numerical ModelsNumerical Models Scripps – Scripps Institute of Oceanography : Scripps – Scripps Institute of Oceanography :

Experimental Climate Prediction CenterExperimental Climate Prediction Center Associated with the University of California at San Associated with the University of California at San

Diego (La Jolla)Diego (La Jolla) Hybrid Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Spectral Model Hybrid Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Spectral Model

in collaboration with Max Planck Institute for in collaboration with Max Planck Institute for MeteoMeteo

Ocean GCM is HOPE2, better resolution of Ocean GCM is HOPE2, better resolution of thermocline.thermocline.

See: http://ecpc.ucsd.edu/projects/GSM_HOME.htmlSee: http://ecpc.ucsd.edu/projects/GSM_HOME.html

ModelsModels Scripps Outlook for Feb-Mar-AprScripps Outlook for Feb-Mar-Apr

Long Range GuidanceLong Range Guidance

NASA – NASAS Seasonal to Interannual Prediction ProjectNASA – NASAS Seasonal to Interannual Prediction Project Greenbelt, MDGreenbelt, MD Fully coupled global ocean-atmosphere-land modelFully coupled global ocean-atmosphere-land model Ocean Model – Poseidon V4 (0.3deg x 0.6deg) with 27 layers Ocean Model – Poseidon V4 (0.3deg x 0.6deg) with 27 layers

and IC from optimal Iand IC from optimal I Atmosphere Model – NSIPPv1 (2degx2.5deg) with 34 layersAtmosphere Model – NSIPPv1 (2degx2.5deg) with 34 layers Land Model – Mosaic LSMLand Model – Mosaic LSM 19 member Ensemble for 12 month forecasts19 member Ensemble for 12 month forecasts

- Six members perturb ocean only- Six members perturb ocean only- Six members perturb atmosphere only- Six members perturb atmosphere only- Six members perturb oceans with a single perturbed atmos- Six members perturb oceans with a single perturbed atmos- One member uses initial atmosphere from CDAS reanalysis- One member uses initial atmosphere from CDAS reanalysis

http://janus.gsfc.nasa.gov/~pegion/nsipp/http://janus.gsfc.nasa.gov/~pegion/nsipp/

ModelsModels

NSIPPNSIPP

Long Range GuidanceLong Range Guidance

CMBCMB Climate Modeling Branch (section within Climate Modeling Branch (section within

NCEP/EMC) in Washington, DCNCEP/EMC) in Washington, DC Atmospheric General Circulation Model coupled Atmospheric General Circulation Model coupled

with NCEP’s SST forecasts using their ENSO with NCEP’s SST forecasts using their ENSO Forecast System.Forecast System.

20 member ensemble with differing initial 20 member ensemble with differing initial conditions to predict up to 6 monthsconditions to predict up to 6 months

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/cmb/http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/cmb/atm_forecast/atm_forecast/

ModelsModels

CMBCMB

Coming SoonComing Soon

Statistical Long Range Forecast Statistical Long Range Forecast ModelsModels Government and InstitutesGovernment and Institutes

International Forecast CentersInternational Forecast Centers UKMET, ECMWF, CMC, Brazil, South UKMET, ECMWF, CMC, Brazil, South

Africa, Australia, Japan and KoreaAfrica, Australia, Japan and Korea