meta analysis economy eco jan/15 · gdp and private consumption (1) unemployment rate and inflation...

GDP and private consumption (1) Unemployment rate and inflation (2)

Source: SECO. Source: SECO, FSO.

Economic forecasts Swiss economy (3)

2015 2016 2015 2016 2015 2016 2015 2016 2015 2016 2015 2016 2015 2016

2.1 2.4 1.9 2.1 2.1 2.6 1.6 - 0.5 1.1 1.9 - 1.7 2.1

↘ ↗ → ↘ ↗ → ↘ ↘ ↗ ↗

1.9 1.9 2.1 1.7 1.6 1.7 1.0 - 1.4 1.5 1.8 - 1.6 1.7

→ ↗ ↗ ↘ ↘ → ↘ ↘ ↗ ↗

2.4 2.2 1.7 1.3 - - 1.0 - 1.2 1.3 0.7 - 1.4 1.6

→ ↘ → → ↗ ↘ ↗ ↗

3.0 4.0 2.0 4.3 3.5 5.4 2.0 - -0.3 0.5 4.7 - 2.5 3.6

→ ↘ ↘ ↘ ↗ → ↘ ↘ ↗ ↗

1.0 1.0 -0.6 1.6 2.6 4.2 1.0 - 1.6 0.7 -1.3 - 0.7 1.9

→ ↗ ↗ ↗ ↗ → ↘ → ↘ ↗

4.1 4.8 5.0 4.8 3.5 6.2 5.0 - -0.1 0.5 4.5 - 3.7 4.1

↘ ↗ ↘ ↘ ↘ → ↘ ↘ ↗ ↗

4.4 4.8 3.3 4.8 3.7 7.0 3.0 - 0.0 0.5 4.7 - 3.2 4.3

↘ ↘ ↘ ↘ ↘ → ↘ ↘ ↗ ↗

3.0 2.8 3.1 3.1 3.1 2.9 3.2 - 3.6 3.5 3.1 - 3.2 3.1

↘ ↘ → ↘ ↘ ↗ ↗ ↗ → →

0.2 0.4 -0.1 0.5 -0.3 0.0 0.0 - -0.6 0.9 0.3 - -0.1 0.5

↘ ↘ ↘ ↘ ↘ ↘ ↘ ↘ ↘ ↗

SECO: 18.12.2014 (16.10.2014), KOF: 17.12.2014 (29.10.2014), Créa: 18.11.2014 (8.5.2014), CS: 10.12.2014 (9.9.2014), UBS: 15.1.2015 (28.11.2014), BAKBASEL: 9.9.2014 (3.6.2014).

Arrows: ↗ (previous forecast was adjusted upwards), ↘ (previous forecast was adjusted downwards), → (previous forecast kept). The first forecast of the year will not be listed with an arrow.

The arrows with the arithmetic means (columns on the right) show the changes of the means to the previous meta analysis economy.

For all sources, please consult the last two pages «Sources and Glossary» and «Impressum».

Meta analysis economy

Exports

Imports

Equipment investments

GDP, real

Private consumption

Investments in construction

Changes to previous year as a %. Consecutively, the date of the current forcast will be listed directly, the date of the previous forecast in parentheses:

ECOJan/15

BAK

following days will show, if and how other forecasting institutes will react on SNB's decision.

- In December 2014, the KOF Economic Barometer fell 0,2 points. It now shows a reading of 98,7 points, following revised 98,9

points in November 2014.

- The UBS consumption indicator fell slightly in November 2014 from 1,32 to 1,29 points. Fewer new car registrations are weighing

- Swiss National Bank: The SNB is discontinuing the minimum exchange rate of CHF 1.20 per euro. At the same time, it is lowering

the interest rate on sight deposit account balances that exceed a given exemption threshold by 0.5 percentage points, to −0.75%.

- After this decision, the UBS lowered its growth prevision for 2015 to 0,5% (before 1,8%) and for 2016 to 1,1% (before 1,7%). The

on consumption.

Arithmetic meansKOF

- The procure.ch Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) rose by 1,9 points in December 2014 and closed at 54,0 points. This means

that the PMI has closed every month in 2014 within the growth zone that starts at 50,0 points. The outlook for 2015 is therefore

Créa

cautiously optimistic.

more than in the previous month. The unemployment rate raised from 3,2% in November 2014 to 3,4% in December 2014.

CSSECO

- According to SECO, end December 2014 147'369 unemployed were registered at regional employment agencies. This is 10'369

UBS

Unemployment rate

Public consumption

Consumer prices

On 19 december 2014, the guide for Swiss residential and commercial properties

«Immobilien-Almanach Schweiz»

markets for the year 2015 was published.

Order: [email protected]

Costs: CHF 150 / copy

Information: http://www.fpre.ch/en/produkte_almanach.asp

-4%

-3%

-2%

-1%

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

private consumption (change p.a.) GDP (real, change p.a.)

-2%

-1%

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

consumer prices (change p.a.)

unemployment rate

unemployment rate, seasonally adjusted

Fahrländer Partner AG Raumentwicklung Eichstrasse 23 8045 Zürich +41 44 466 70 00 [email protected] www.fpre.ch

http://www.fpre.ch/

http://www.fpre.ch/

UBS CS KOF BAK SECO Créa Ø UBS KOF SECO Créa CS BAK Ø

Evolution of GDP (real) and unemployment rate (4)

- The potential growth lies between 1,6% and 1,8%, according to

calculations by Fahrländer Partner .

Note: In June 2012, the population census 2012 replaced the one of 2000 as database.

The unemployment rate has been revised retroactively until 2010 by SECO.

KOF economic barometer (5)

Private consumption, consumer sentiment and UBS consumption indicator (6)

Barometer falls slightly by 0,2 points in December.

consumption.

Source: WMR UBS, SECO.

ahead of the GDP growth rate of the previous year and thus enables

- The UBS consumption indicator fell slightly in November 2014 from

1,32 to 1,29 points. Fewer new car registrations are weighing on

in the next or in the next two quarters.

- In December 2014, the KOF Economic Barometer stands at 98,7 – the

same level as was recorded in November 2014. However, due to an

upward revision of the initial reading for November to 98,9, the KOF

Source: KOF, SECO.

1.7 2.1

1.1

2016

Source: figure 1, page 1, Fahrländer Partner (growth potential).

2.4

an initial estimate to be made of how the Swiss economy will perform

2015

2.1

Swiss economy. It comprises 219 variables which are combined

2.1 - 2.61.9

ECOOverview economic indicators

-

Jan/15

GDP, real

GDP forecast Swiss economy

1.90.5 2.11.6

- The KOF Economic Barometer is a composite leading indicator for the

based on statistically determined weights. It is one to two quarters

-3%

-2%

-1%

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

GDP real growth potential unemployment rate

-50

-30

-10

10

30

50

-1.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

private consumption (in %)UBS consumption indicatorconsumer confidence (right scale)consumer confidence, new index (right scale)

-6%

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

GDP (real, change p. a., r. s) KOF Economic Barometer

(7)


KOF: GDP forecasts (8)

Créa: GDP forecast (9)

Source: SECO.

Forecast adjustment

KOF: unemployment rate forecasts

SECO: GDP forecast SECO: unemployment rate forecast

ECOJan/15

Source: KOF.

Créa: unemployment rate forecast

Source: Créa.

-4%

-3%

-2%

-1%

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

-4%

-3%

-2%

-1%

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

-4%

-3%

-2%

-1%

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

18.12.2014

16.10.2014

17.06.2014

18.03.2014

19.12.2013

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

17.12.2014

29.10.2014

13.06.2014

28.03.2014

17.12.2013

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

18.11.2014

08.05.2014

31.10.2013

20.06.2013

i Consulting SA Route d'Oron 79 1010 Lausanne +41 (0)21 721 20 70 [email protected] www.iconsultingsa.ch

CS UBS Créa BAK SECO KOF Ø UBS KOF Créa SECO CS BAK Ø

BAK CS UBS KOF SECO Créa Ø KOF UBS SECO Créa CS BAK Ø

Changes in consumption (10)

UBS consumption indicator (11)

- The UBS consumption indicator shows - ca. three months in advance

to the official numbers - the evolution of the private consumption in

Switzerland.

Consumer confidence index (12)

Employment stability

New index (EU-compatible)

Expected economic development

- Note: Since the second quarter 2007, the new EU-compatible index is

displayed.

Changes turnover in retail business and new registrations of cars (13)

Turnover in retail business

Source: FSO.

Private consumption (in %)

Change p.a.

- 2.2

Source: WMR UBS, SECO.

1.4

-

Change p.a.

-1.5%

-5

0.7%

3rd quarter 2014

UBS consumption indicator

Level of the index

Source: SECO.

October 2014 Level of the index

3rd quarter 2014

1.6

-

ECO

-

1.3

-11

November 2014

1.29

Consumer confidence

-14

1.5

2015

Private consumption 1.7

2016

1.3 1.61.2

1.8

1.0 1.7

1.9

Jan/15

1.71.6

Change p.a. 3rd quarter 2014

New registrations of cars

Detail indicators consumption

1.0

1.3%

1.4

Source: table 3, page 1.

-

1.9

2.4

1.7

Public consumption

0.7

2.1

-57

-

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

New registrations of cars Turnover in retail business

-3%

-2%

-1%

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Private consumption Public consumption

-150

-100

-50

0

50

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Consumer confidenceEmployment stabilityNew index (EU-compatible)Expected economic development

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

private consumption (in %) UBS consumption indicator

UBS KOF CS SECO Créa BAK Ø UBS SECO KOF Créa CS BAK Ø

BAK KOF SECO CS UBS Créa Ø UBS SECO KOF Créa CS BAK Ø

Changes in investments (14)

Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) (15)

Production

Business backlog

- The Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) is based on a monthly survey

of Credit Suisse and procure.ch. The PMI shows an immediate picture

of business development in industry.

Changes in credit volume, inland (16)

Mortgage claims

Changes order inflow and balance of capital goods (17)

Total order inflow

Investment order inflow

Total business backlog

Investment business backlog

2.5%

Note: In the first quarter 2012, the statistics PAUL were replaced by the statistics INDPAU.

1.9%

-1.3%

Detail indicators investments

Equipment investments

2015

3.5 4.7

Jan/15

ECO

2016

-0.3 3.6 - 3.0 - 4.0 5.44.32.0

Source: Credit Suisse, procure.ch.

54.9

0.7%

October 2014

Change p.a.

Volume in billion CHF Change p.a.

Claims on clients 162.3

3.7%891.8

0.7

2.0

Source: FSO.

3.5%

Source: SNB.

3rd quarter 2014

Level of the index

PMI 54.0

Investments in construction 2.61.61.0 1.0 1.0-1.3 -0.6 1.6 -

December 2014

1.94.2 - 0.7

Source: figure 3, page 1.

0.52.5

56.3

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Mortgage claims Claims on clients

-16%

-12%

-8%

-4%

0%

4%

8%

12%

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

investments in construction equipment investments

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

70

75

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

PMI Production Business backlog

-30.0%

-20.0%

-10.0%

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Investment business backlog Investment order inflow

Total business backlog Total order inflow

UBS Créa SECO BAK KOF CS Ø UBS SECO KOF Créa CS BAK Ø

UBS CS KOF Créa SECO BAK Ø UBS SECO KOF Créa CS BAK Ø

Changes in foreign trade: exports and imports (18)

Changes order inflow and turnover (19)

Total order inflow

Total turnover

Changes in exports to Germany, France, Italy, USA: contribution to growth in export volume (20)

Germany

France

Italy

USA

Real exchange rate indices, export-weighted (21)

GBP

USD

JPY (100)

- The real external value of the Swiss Franc compared to the currencies of

the most important trade partners of Switzerland is measured by the

real export-weighted exchange rate index. It is often used as an indicator

for the assessment of the price competitiveness of an economy.

A fall in the exchange rate index means a depreciation of the Swiss

Franc.

Source: SNB.

Imports of goods 0.0 4.4

Exports of goods

ECODetail indicators foreign trade

3.5 4.13.7

2016

-0.1

3.0

5.0

4.83.3

0.5 4.84.1

3.7 7.00.5 -

- -

Jan/15

2015

4.0%

3.7%


6.25.0 4.8

Change p.a.

3rd quarter 2014 Change p.a.

0.7%

-1.0%

Note: In the first quarter 2012, the statistics PAUL were replaced by the statistics INDPAU.

Source: Swiss Customs Administration.

EUR

10.6%

-7.1%

0.99

0.86

15.01.2015 Exchange rate

1.28

0.87

4.8 4.3

4.5

4.7 3.2

9.8%

3rd quarter 2014

Total exports

Source: FSO.

-

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Total order inflow Total turnover

-9%

-6%

-3%

0%

3%

6%

9%

12%

15%

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Exports Imports

-20%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Germany France Italy USA Total exports

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

150

160

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Euro Zone UK USA Japan Total

UBS CS KOF Créa BAK SECO Ø BAK CS UBS KOF Créa SECO Ø

Unemployment rate (22)



Changes in unemployment rate (23)

as a %

TOTAL 3.2 -0.3 -1

Secondary sector 5.4 0.2 4

Engineering 1'828 2.8 -0.2 -8

Chemistry, petroleum refining 1'445 3.5 0.0 -2

Third sector 4.0 0.0 -1

Banking and insurance sector 6'701 2.5 -0.2 -6



Source: SECO.

Change job vacancies (24)

TOTAL

Second sector

Mechanical engineering

Third sector

Banking and insurance sector

Cantonal unemployment rates as a % (25.a) Short-time work (25.b)

Source: SECO.


Changes to

40'093

3rd quater 2014

December 2014same month previous year

%-pointsUnempl. rate

Registered unemployed

96'118

9%

-

Source: FSO.

2016

Detail indicators job market

Unemployment rate 3.2

Jan/15

2.93.0 3.1 2.83.53.1 -

2015

Change p.a.

Number

16%

Index of job vacancies

-1%

-3%

3.13.2

-2%

3.13.1

147'369

ECO

3.6

-1%

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

growth of employment unemployment rate

-40%

-20%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

unemployment rate unemployment rate 20-24 unemployment rate 60+

-80%

-60%

-40%

-20%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

TOTAL Second sector

Third sector Mechanical engineering

Banking and insurance sector

0

1'000

2'000

3'000

4'000

5'000

6'000

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Canceled working hours (in 1'000)

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

OW A

I

NW

UR

SZ

GR

AR

LU

ZG

GL

SG

TG

BE

SO BL

AG

CH

FR

SH

ZH

BS

JU TI

VD

GE

NE

VS

December 2014

UBS Créa KOF CS SECO BAK Ø Créa SECO KOF UBS CS BAK Ø

Rate of price increase (26)

Forecast December 2014

Libor

Forecast September 2014

Libor

- The Swiss National Bank has once again adjusted its conditional inflation

forecast downwards in December 2014 compared to September 2014.

For 2014, the SNB has revised its inflation forecast downwards by 0,1

percentage points to 0,0%. For 2015, forecast inflation will even turn

negative, at –0,1%. Only in 2016 is inflation expected to rise slightly, to 0,3%.

Changes in producer and import prices (27)

Interests and monetary aggregates (28)

3 month Libor

Confederation bonds (10 years)

Saving growth

Yields on Confederation bonds (29)

2015 2016 2015 2016

0.0% 0.0% 0.4% 0.5%

0.0% 0.0% 0.5% 0.5%

- - 0.4% 0.5%

- Normal band: long-term expectations of growth (ca. 1.5% - 2%) plus

long-term expectations of price increase (ca. 1.5% - 2%).

Jan/15

0.5

0.0%

ECO

Source: FSO.

- -0.1

-0.7%

-0.6% -2.1%

Créa

0.1%

-0.1% Consumer prices -0.1%

- 0.4

-1.4% Production prices

Import prices

Interest rate 3-month-Libor

2016

Source: figure 3, page 1, SNB.

0.2%

0.20.0

2015

-0.1%

Rate of price increase 0.9

December 2014

0.4%

October 2014

0.2%

Yields on Confederat. bonds (10 years)

Seco

Expected interest rate

Source: FSO.

Source: SNB, Fahrländer Partner (normal band).

KOF

2015

0.5%

0.00%

-0.1%

Inflation forecast SNB

change to previous month change p.a.

0.3%

0.00%

November 2014

-0.1

2014 2016

0.50.3 0.0

Detail indicators price increase and interests

-0.6 -0.3

-1.0%

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

0 2.5 5 7.5 10 12.5 15 17.5 20 22.5 25 27.5 30

01.12.2014 four weeks ago one year ago

duration in years

0

200

400

600

800

1000

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

3 month Libor Confederation bonds (10 years)

Saving growth Monetary aggregates M2 (in bn., r.s.)

-12%

-10%

-8%

-6%

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Consumer prices Production prices Import prices

normal band

-1.0%

-0.5%

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

3.5%

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

inflation interest rate development 3 month libor

upper limit price stability (SNB)

Economic forecasts global economy (30)

2015 2016 2015 2016 2015 2016 2015 2016 2015 2016 2015 2016 2015 2016 2015 2016 2015 2016

- - 1.5 2.5 - - - - 0.0 0.3 - - - - 4.4 4.3 - -

↘ ↘ ↗

1.1 1.8 1.1 1.8 2.0 - 1.2 1.6 1.2 1.7 1.5 - 5.1 4.8 5.1 5.1 6.5 -

↘ ↘ ↘ ↘ ↘ ↘ → ↗ →

2.7 2.5 2.7 2.5 2.1 - 1.6 1.9 1.8 2.1 2.1 - 5.7 5.5 5.6 5.4 6.5 -

↗ → ↗ ↘ ↘ → ↘ ↘ ↘

1.0 1.0 0.8 1.0 1.6 - 1.6 1.4 1.8 1.6 0.4 - 3.8 3.8 3.5 3.5 3.8 -

↘ ↘ ↘ → ↘ → → ↘ →

3.1 3.2 3.1 3.0 3.1 - 2.0 2.3 1.4 2.0 2.1 - 5.8 5.4 5.6 5.3 5.7 -

↘ ↘ ↗ ↗ ↘ → ↘ ↘ ↘

1.5 2.0 - - - - 1.0 1.6 - - - - 10.0 9.5 - - - -

↘ ↘ ↘

1.1 1.7 1.1 1.7 1.4 - 0.8 1.5 0.6 1.0 1.1 - 11.3 10.8 11.1 10.8 11.6 -

↘ ↘ ↘ ↘ ↘ ↘ ↘ ↘ ↗

- - 2.3 1.7 - - - - - - - - - - 7.0 6.8 - -

↘ ↘

Changes to the previous year as a %. Consecutively, the date of the current forecast will be listed directly, the date of the previous forecast in parentheses:

European Commission (EU KOM): 22.10.2014 (3.5.2014), OECD: 25.11.2014 (6.6.2014), DIW: 17.6.2014 (13.3.2014).

Arrows: ↗ (previous forecast was adjusted upwards), ↘ (previous forecast was adjusted downwards), → (previous forecast kept).

The first forecast of the year will not be listed with an arrow.

International GDP (31) International unemployment rates (32)

International expectations inflation (33)

Source: OECD.

International indicatorsECO

Unemployment rateGDP, real

EU COMDIW OECD

Germany

Great Britain

USA

EU COM

Jan/15

OECDEU COM

Rate of price increase

DIW DIW

OECD countries

EU-27

Switzerland

Eurozone

Japan

OECD

-8%

-6%

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

USA Euro Zone Germany Switzerland

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016


-1%

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016


PI Partner AG Staldenbachstrasse 13 8808 Pfäffikon SZ

+41 (0)44 260 10 70 [email protected] www.pi-partner.ch

http://www.pi-partner.ch/

The Gini coefficient is used to describe disparities of distribution. Often it is used to show the disparities of the income distrubution.

If the income is distributed exactly equally, which means every person earns the average income of the collectivity, the Gini coefficient

is 0. The Gini coefficient takes its highest value (<1) in case of a maximal uneven distrubution (one person earns the income of the

whole collectivity).

Communal Gini coefficients

(34)

Source: Swiss Federal Tax Administration, sotomo, compliation: FPRE.

In a commune with a low Gini coefficient, the demand of goods (e.g. apartments) depends mainly on the lifestyle and the attitude of the

households because the available income is distributed nearly equally.

Gini coefficient by type of commune

(35)


Maximum

3rd quartile

Median

1st quartile

Minimum

1 Centre

2 Suburban commune

3 High-income commune

4 Periurban communes

Tourist areas

Industrial-tertiary commune

7 Rural communes of outwart commuters

8 Agro-mixed communes

9 Agrarian communes

Special topic: Gini Coefficient (1)Jan/15

ECO

-

0.10

0.20

0.30

0.40

0.50

0.60

0.70

0.80

0.90

1.00

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

Gin

i C

oeff

icie

nt

Type of commune

Correlation Gini coefficient - average income (in CHF): cantons

(36)


Correlation Gini coefficient - average income (in Euro): EU countries

(37)

Source: Eurostat, compliation: FPRE.

Special topic: Gini Coefficient (2)ECOJan/15

ZH

BE

LU

UR

SZ

OW

NW

GL

ZG

FR SO BS

BL

SH AR

AI

SG GR

AG TG

TI

VD

VS NE

GE

JU

0

20'000

40'000

60'000

80'000

100'000

120'000

140'000

160'000

0.35 0.4 0.45 0.5 0.55 0.6 0.65 0.7

Gini Coefficient

ave

rag

e in

co

me

(in

CH

F)

EU

Euroraum

BE

BU

CZ

DK

ES

FR

IT

LX

NL

AU

PL

POR SLO

FIN

SWE

UK

IS

NOR

CH

DE

0

5'000

10'000

15'000

20'000

25'000

30'000

35'000

40'000

45'000

50'000

0.2 0.25 0.3 0.35 0.4

Gini Coefficient

avera

ge incom

e (

in E

uro

)

Nb. of fig. Note Indicator Source

1 Real change as a % compared to previous year SECO 4th quarter 2013

2 Level as a % Unemployment rate SECO

Changes compared to previous year. Consumer prices FSO

3 Forecasts SECO

KOF

Créa

Credit Suisse

UBS

BAKBASEL

4 Real change as a % compared to previous year SECO

(at previous year prices). Forecasts figure 3

5 KOF Economic Barometer KOF

GDP SECO 4th quarter 2013

6 Private consumption SECO 4th quarter 2013

UBS consumption indicator UBS

Consumer confidence SECO 4th quarter 2014


(at previous year prices).

8 Real change as a % compared to previous year KOF


9 Real change as a % compared to previous year Créa




11 UBS consumption indicator UBS

Private consumption SECO 4th quarter 2013

12 Consumer confidence SECO

13 Quarterly date, changes as a % compared to previous year. New registrations of cars ASTRA

Sales in retail business, adjusted, real. Retail trade turnover FSO 3rd quarter 2014



15 Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) procure.ch, CS

16 Outstanding credit (gross receivable), SNB

Change as a % compared to previous year (nominal values).

17 Real change as a % compared to previous year FSO

(at prices of previous year), except construction business.



19 Real change as a % compared to previous year FSO

(at prices of previous year), except construction business.

20 Shares of exports to Germany, France, Italy and the USA Swiss Customs 3rd quarter 2014

to the relative growth of export volume in percentage points. Administration

Relative changes in growth of total exports as a % compared to

the previous year (nominal values).

21 SNB

22 Unemployment rate as a percentage. Employment growth Unemployment rate SECO

(full-time equivalent) in the second and third sector as Employment growth SECO

percentaged change compared to the previous year. Forecasts

23 Changes compared to previous year. SECO

24 Changes compared to previous year. FSO JOBSTAT 3rd quater 2014

25.a Unemployment rate SECO December 2014

25.b Short-time Work SECO

26 Consumer price index (changes as a % compared to previous year).Inflation FSO

3-month-Libor as a % 3-month-Libor SNB

Forecasts figure 3

27 Changes compared to previous year. FSO November 2014

28 Taux d'intérêts SNB December 2014

Masse monétaire SNB November 2014

Dépots d'épargne SNB October 2014

29 SNB December 2014

marge normale Fahrländer Partner 2012

30 Changes compared to previous year. Forecasts EU Commission

OECD

DIW

31 Real change as a % compared to previous year OECD


32-33 OECD

34-36 ESTV, sotomo, 2014

Compl.: FPRE

37 Eurostat 2014

Compl.: FPRE

2014

2014

25.11.2014

December 2014

Changes compared to previous year.

November 2014

December 2013

10.12.2014

2014

18.12.2014

December 2014

18.11.2014

25.11.2014

17.06.2014

figure 3

4th quarter 2014

December 2014

October 2014

2014

December 2014

December 2014

November 2014

22.10.2014

3rd quarter 2014

3rd quarter 2014

3rd quarter 2014

18.11.2014

November 2014

17.12.2014

ECOSources und Glossary

18.12.2014

Jan/15

17.12.2014

November 2014

2014

December 2014

25.11.2014

October 2014

Data as of

15.01.2015

09.09.2014

Disclaimer Fahrländer Partner Raumentwicklung elaborates the meta analysis economy with highest care. Despite this,

it is not possible to guarantee the accuracy, correctness, timeliness and completeness of all the information.

Also check original sources.

Impressum The meta analysis economy is compiled based on the newest available data.

Authors: Jaron Schlesinger and Carmen Kneubühler.

http://www.fpre.ch/en/produkte_meta.asp

Sponsoring The meta analysis economy is a free service offered by Fahrländer Partner Raumentwicklung.

We offer you the possibility to appear as a sponser in this publication. Please contact us.

Fahrländer Partner AG

Raumentwicklung

Eichstrasse 23

8045 Zürich

+41 44 466 70 00

[email protected]

www.fpre.ch

ECOImpressum

Jan/15

http://www.fpre.ch/de/produkte_meta.asp

mailto:[email protected]

http://www.fahrlaenderpartner.ch/

meta analysis economy eco jan/15 · gdp and private consumption (1) unemployment rate and inflation...

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