met brief for mon mar 03 02 mar 2014 rennie selkirk with lynn harvey and lenny pfister current...
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Met brief for Mon Mar 0302 Mar 2014
Rennie Selkirk with Lynn Harvey and Lenny PfisterCURRENT SITUATION (8 AM Sun):
TS Faxai: near 9N 150E; slightly better organized; slow moving to NAirfield – past 12 hours: NE winds to 21; G29; min CIG 014, short periods
with no CIG
FLIGHT OUTLOOK:
Not good: issues of both ceiling and crosswindOnly slightly better outlook if TS stays in placeWorth a look again later today (1 PM) to see how storm is both deepening and
movingConfidence in models is still low, though improving
wind cloud cover (base) precip
Takeoff 1:45 AM~16 UT NE20G29
BKN015BKN025 VCSH
midflight 10 AM – 3 PM
UA zone may be impacted by deep convection in storm rainbands particularly at beginning of flight
Landing 6 PM~08 UT
N20G28 (18XW)
Best 10XW if TS stays put
- At best, short periods of no CIG - Marginal improvement if TS tracks farther east than expected
VCSH Slight chance of TS
JTWC Storm Track7 AM Sunday
Closest approach 257 nm at 4 PM Monday
Current IR: 2232 UT 01 Mar
TS Faixa slowly moving slightly W of N
GFS surface fcststakeoff / landing
Mon 4 AM Mon 10 PM
UA zone may be impacted by deep convection in storm
rainbands
N.B.: not correct flight track
NAVGEM surface fcststakeoff / landing
Mon 4 AM Mon 10 PM
UA zone may be impacted by deep convection in storm
rainbandsparticularly at beginning of flight
N.B.: not correct flight track
Sounding: observed, forecast
Some uncertainty in convective instability and depth of wet layer in
fcst sounding
Sat PM obs
7 PM Mon
WRF 15-km model
Icing probably not a factor
GFS 500 RH at 10 PM tomorrow(worst case scenario)
Last 3 JTWC forecasts agree, but because of weak steering winds as of 0Z, mar 2, confidence in track is still low.
GFS forecast Guam winds (assumes TC moves with GFS; GFS is a bit slower and further west (closer to Guam) than model consensus, but is not too far off.
Time Wdir Wspd Xwind Flight 14030118 46.2 23.0 7.8 TO today 14030200 47.9 23.4 7.314030206 43.1 22.4 8.714030212 37.2 23.6 11.4 Landing today14030218 24.9 26.6 15.8 TO tomorrow14030300 21.7 24.6 17.1814030306 355.1 28.17 26.614030312 344.1 25.63 25.4 Landing tomorrow14030318 320.1 27.6 26.6 TO Tuesday (TAILWIND)14030400 319.7 23.3 22.4 (TAILWIND)14030406 320.4 20.1 19.4 (TAILWIND)14030412 330.0 16.9 16.8 Landing Tuesday (TAILWIND)14030418 333.0 15.8 15.8 TO Wednesday (TAILWIND Comp .79 knots)14030400 353.5 12.9 12.3
Wind conditions improve from this point. Thinking is that
Tailwind is nonzero when wdir is less than 336.
Longer Range Forecast, ceilings
•This depends on whether storm moves as progged by JTWC, confidence still low.•Tuesday flight – TO, isolated showers, chances of bkn at 1500 about 40%•Tuesday flight – Landing, similar to TO.•Wednesday flight – TO, isolated showers, chances of bkn at 1500 about 30%•Wednesday flight – landing, isolated showers, chances of bkn at 1500 about 30%.•Thursday and on. Still moisture at the low levels, so cannot discount the possibility of low ceilings. Ceilings below 1000 are unlikely after Monday.