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MERCURY SCIENCE SYNTHESIS Jacob Fleck US Geological Survey DTMC quick recap Sept 13, 2016

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Page 1: MERCURY SCIENCE SYNTHESIS - sacriver.org · Many mgmt. and policy discussions end in ‘science isn’t there yet’ so decisions can be elusive We are not at the stage to recommend

MERCURY SCIENCE SYNTHESISJacob Fleck

US Geological Survey

DTMC quick recapSept 13, 2016

Page 2: MERCURY SCIENCE SYNTHESIS - sacriver.org · Many mgmt. and policy discussions end in ‘science isn’t there yet’ so decisions can be elusive We are not at the stage to recommend

What is the 2003 ‘Strategy?’ A few key studies identified a real and present threat posed

by mercury contamination in the SFBD watershed Appeared to be in direct opposition to planned restoration of

the Bay-Delta ecosystem

Domagalski et al., 2004

Slotten et al., 2002GOAL: “to provide a unifying framework for the integrated investigations needed to build a scientific foundation for ecosystem restoration, environmental planning, and the assessment and eventual reduction of mercury-related risks in the Bay-Delta ecosystem”

Page 3: MERCURY SCIENCE SYNTHESIS - sacriver.org · Many mgmt. and policy discussions end in ‘science isn’t there yet’ so decisions can be elusive We are not at the stage to recommend

Revisitation of the Strategy

Purpose: To expand upon the 2003 Strategy’s framework through a shared understanding among scientists and managers regarding the latest scientific knowledge and its relation to management decisions

Page 4: MERCURY SCIENCE SYNTHESIS - sacriver.org · Many mgmt. and policy discussions end in ‘science isn’t there yet’ so decisions can be elusive We are not at the stage to recommend

Planning Team

Jacob Fleck, Josh Ackerman, Collin Eagles-Smith, Lisamarie Windham-Myers, Roger Fujii US Geological Survey

Yumiko Henneberry, Darcy AustinDelta Stewardship Council - Delta Science Program

Shakoora Azimi-GaylonDelta Conservancy

Funding provided by CDFW, DSP and USGS

Page 5: MERCURY SCIENCE SYNTHESIS - sacriver.org · Many mgmt. and policy discussions end in ‘science isn’t there yet’ so decisions can be elusive We are not at the stage to recommend

Independent Science PanelDavid KrabbenhoftUS Geological Survey

Cynthia Gilmour Smithsonian Environmental Research Center

Karen Kidd University of New Brunswick

Page 6: MERCURY SCIENCE SYNTHESIS - sacriver.org · Many mgmt. and policy discussions end in ‘science isn’t there yet’ so decisions can be elusive We are not at the stage to recommend

Workshops: Community input

Page 7: MERCURY SCIENCE SYNTHESIS - sacriver.org · Many mgmt. and policy discussions end in ‘science isn’t there yet’ so decisions can be elusive We are not at the stage to recommend

Workshops summary

3 technical in January; 1 synthesis in June Approximately 100 participants for each

technical workshop; ~80 for synthesis Between 30 and 40 people responded to

each of the tech. workshop surveys Those who contributed additional

notes/comments were very helpful for our assessment

Workshop conversations were very fruitful

Page 8: MERCURY SCIENCE SYNTHESIS - sacriver.org · Many mgmt. and policy discussions end in ‘science isn’t there yet’ so decisions can be elusive We are not at the stage to recommend

Why are we doing it? The 2003 strategy called for regular meetings for

integration and communication Lots of data collected and many publications since

2003 Many mgmt. and policy discussions end in ‘science

isn’t there yet’ so decisions can be elusive We are not at the stage to recommend or

implement management strategies

Need for synthesis of the data and recent literature to help inform management and policy decisions especially in such a complex system!

Page 9: MERCURY SCIENCE SYNTHESIS - sacriver.org · Many mgmt. and policy discussions end in ‘science isn’t there yet’ so decisions can be elusive We are not at the stage to recommend

Where we are…

January, 2016 Technical workshops

June 2,2016SynthesisWorkshop

November 15-17,2016 – Bay-Delta Science ConferenceSpecial session

January 15 –Synthesis paper planned submission date

Fall 2015Proposal submitted

Summer/Fall 2016compile, synthesizeand analyze data, lit reviews

Spring 2016synthesize workshopinfo and feedback

Page 10: MERCURY SCIENCE SYNTHESIS - sacriver.org · Many mgmt. and policy discussions end in ‘science isn’t there yet’ so decisions can be elusive We are not at the stage to recommend

1. The San Francisco Bay-Delta: A unique ecosystem

Watershed Contains six L3 ecoregions

Precipitation varies by an order of magnitude

>14,000 foot elevation range

Large-scale water management

Unique climate

Hg wet deposition mirrors precipitation High in Sierra Nevada

Low in the valley

Oregon Climate Service, 1995

Page 11: MERCURY SCIENCE SYNTHESIS - sacriver.org · Many mgmt. and policy discussions end in ‘science isn’t there yet’ so decisions can be elusive We are not at the stage to recommend

1A. Unique ecosystem: Mining legacy

Alpers et al., 2005

Page 12: MERCURY SCIENCE SYNTHESIS - sacriver.org · Many mgmt. and policy discussions end in ‘science isn’t there yet’ so decisions can be elusive We are not at the stage to recommend

1B. Unique ecosystem: Atmospheric Hg

Weiss-Penzias et al., 2016; Science of the Total EnvironmentDomagalski et al., 2016; Science of the Total Environment

GEM = gaseous elemental mercury

Page 13: MERCURY SCIENCE SYNTHESIS - sacriver.org · Many mgmt. and policy discussions end in ‘science isn’t there yet’ so decisions can be elusive We are not at the stage to recommend

1C. Unique ecosystem: habitats - physiochemical gradients vary in time

Open Bay Mud flat

Tidal marsh

Lake River

ReservoirEstuary

Lagoon

Water management, tidal forcings & climate impact the connectivity of these environments and how they affect Hg cycling R. Stewart

Page 14: MERCURY SCIENCE SYNTHESIS - sacriver.org · Many mgmt. and policy discussions end in ‘science isn’t there yet’ so decisions can be elusive We are not at the stage to recommend

2. Spatial patterns across the watershed

Site means range over 2 orders of magnitude with variable distribution across the watershed

Data from Eagles-Smith et al., 2016, STOTEN

Map is preliminary and subject to revision

Page 15: MERCURY SCIENCE SYNTHESIS - sacriver.org · Many mgmt. and policy discussions end in ‘science isn’t there yet’ so decisions can be elusive We are not at the stage to recommend

2A. Spatial patterns in the upper watershed

Alpers et al. 2016 Science of the Total Environment

Page 16: MERCURY SCIENCE SYNTHESIS - sacriver.org · Many mgmt. and policy discussions end in ‘science isn’t there yet’ so decisions can be elusive We are not at the stage to recommend

Silverside Hg Trend Across Delta(UC Davis 1998-2000)

Lower central Delta

High Hg periphery

“donut”

Slotten et al., 2002

2B. Spatial patterns in the Delta

Page 17: MERCURY SCIENCE SYNTHESIS - sacriver.org · Many mgmt. and policy discussions end in ‘science isn’t there yet’ so decisions can be elusive We are not at the stage to recommend

Greenfield et al., 2013; ETC

San Francisco BaySilverside SpatialTrend (2008-2010)

SFEI Regional MonitoringProgram (RMP)andUC Davis

r2 = 0.81

p < 0.04

D. Slotten

T

Page 18: MERCURY SCIENCE SYNTHESIS - sacriver.org · Many mgmt. and policy discussions end in ‘science isn’t there yet’ so decisions can be elusive We are not at the stage to recommend

3. Temporal (short-term and long-term) trends

Domagalski et al., 2016

Sacramento River at Freeport

Greenfield et al. 2013

San

Fra

ncis

co B

ay p

rey

fish

THg

ng/LBack-transformed THg concentration

Page 19: MERCURY SCIENCE SYNTHESIS - sacriver.org · Many mgmt. and policy discussions end in ‘science isn’t there yet’ so decisions can be elusive We are not at the stage to recommend

4. Linkages between matrices

Page 20: MERCURY SCIENCE SYNTHESIS - sacriver.org · Many mgmt. and policy discussions end in ‘science isn’t there yet’ so decisions can be elusive We are not at the stage to recommend

4A. Watershed-scale relationships

Data from Fleck et al., 2016Maps are preliminary and subject to revision

Page 21: MERCURY SCIENCE SYNTHESIS - sacriver.org · Many mgmt. and policy discussions end in ‘science isn’t there yet’ so decisions can be elusive We are not at the stage to recommend

Sed THg: R2=0.12, p=0.04, n=37

Sed MeHg: R2=0.04, p=0.26, N=30

4A. Watershed-scale relationships

Data from Fleck et al., 2016Preliminary and subject to revision

Data point keyGreen = SF Bay watershedRed = All of CaliforniaBlue = Western North America

Regressions are for SF Bay data

1 10 100 1,000 10,000 100,000

Page 22: MERCURY SCIENCE SYNTHESIS - sacriver.org · Many mgmt. and policy discussions end in ‘science isn’t there yet’ so decisions can be elusive We are not at the stage to recommend

4B. Regional and habitat-specific relationships

Habitats within each region6 types, no region contains all 6

Data from M. Marvin-DiPasqualePreliminary and subject to revision

Page 23: MERCURY SCIENCE SYNTHESIS - sacriver.org · Many mgmt. and policy discussions end in ‘science isn’t there yet’ so decisions can be elusive We are not at the stage to recommend

4B. Regional and habitat-specific relationships

Habitats within each Region

LSM=Least Squares MeanMPP=Methylmercury Production Potential

Data from M. Marvin-DiPasqualePreliminary and subject to revision

Page 24: MERCURY SCIENCE SYNTHESIS - sacriver.org · Many mgmt. and policy discussions end in ‘science isn’t there yet’ so decisions can be elusive We are not at the stage to recommend

Exposure is dependent on use and transport within and among (sub)habitats

R. Stewart

5. Processes affecting relationships

Fish feeding in pelagic zones are higher in Hg than those feeding in benthic zones

Karimi et al., 2016

Page 25: MERCURY SCIENCE SYNTHESIS - sacriver.org · Many mgmt. and policy discussions end in ‘science isn’t there yet’ so decisions can be elusive We are not at the stage to recommend

Donovan et al., 2016

6. Recent advances

Yolo Bypass Model

Achete et al., 2015

DiGiorgio/Harris

Page 26: MERCURY SCIENCE SYNTHESIS - sacriver.org · Many mgmt. and policy discussions end in ‘science isn’t there yet’ so decisions can be elusive We are not at the stage to recommend

What are the next steps for the Revisitation effort? Science synthesis/review paper in preparation

Planned submission: January 2017

Bay-Delta Science Conference Special oral session November 17, 2016

ISP paper Position paper – ISP’s take on Hg strategy in CA Companion to Synthesis

Page 27: MERCURY SCIENCE SYNTHESIS - sacriver.org · Many mgmt. and policy discussions end in ‘science isn’t there yet’ so decisions can be elusive We are not at the stage to recommend

Where we need to go after the Revisitation

The next step is to develop potential management strategies, implement pilot projects in the field, and test them scientifically

Management workshops?

Page 28: MERCURY SCIENCE SYNTHESIS - sacriver.org · Many mgmt. and policy discussions end in ‘science isn’t there yet’ so decisions can be elusive We are not at the stage to recommend

Session Title: Assembling the Puzzle Pieces: Synthesis of Mercury Science in the San-Francisco Bay Delta and Beyond

Yumiko Henneberry, Delta Stewardship Council and Roger Fujii, USGS CaWSC, Emeritus

Bridging the Divide: Communicating Science Synthesis to Meet Decision Makers’ Needs; Cliff Dahm, Delta Stewardship Council

Building a Scientific Foundation to Manage the Mercury Threat in the San Francisco Estuary; Jacob Fleck, U.S. Geological Survey

The Delta Doughnut: A Persistent Pattern for Methylmercury Metrics; Lisamarie Windham-Myers, U.S. Geological Survey

Using Recent Science to Advise the Delta Methylmercury TMDL; Janis Cooke, CVRWQCB

Discussion/Q&A; Led by David P. Krabbenhoft, U.S. Geological Survey, 'Revisitation' Independent Science Panel chair

Bay-Delta Science ConferenceNov. 17, 2016

Preliminary and subject to revision

Page 29: MERCURY SCIENCE SYNTHESIS - sacriver.org · Many mgmt. and policy discussions end in ‘science isn’t there yet’ so decisions can be elusive We are not at the stage to recommend

References citedAchete, F., M. van der Wegen, D. Roelvink, and B. Jaffe. 2015. A 2-D process-based model for suspended sediment dynamics: A first step towards ecological modeling. Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 2837–2857

Alpers, C.N., Hunerlach, M.P., May, J.T., and Hothem, R.L., 2005a, Mercury contamination from historical gold mining in California, U.S. Geological Survey Fact Sheet 2005-3014, 6 p. http://water.usgs.gov/pubs/fs/2005/3014/

Alpers, C.N., Yee, J.L., Ackerman, J.T., Orlando, J.L., Slotton, D.G., Marvin-Di, P.M., 2016. Prediction of fish and sediment mercury in streams using landscape variables and historical mining. Sci. Total Environ. (in press).

Domagalski, J., Majewski, M.S., Alpers, C.N., Eckley, C.S., Eagles-Smith, C.A., Schenk, L., et al., 2016. Comparison of mercury mass loading in streams to atmospheric deposition in watersheds of western North America: evidence for non-atmospheric mercury sources. Sci. Total Environ. 568, 638–650.

Donovan, P.M., Blum, J.D., Singer, M.B., Marvin-Di Pasquale, M., Tsui, M.T.K., 2016. Methylmercury degradation and exposure pathways in streams and wetlands impacted by historical mining. Sci. Total Environ. 568, 1192–1203.

Eagles-Smith, C.A., Ackerman, J.T., Willacker, J.J., Tate, M.T., Lutz, M.A., Fleck, J.A., et al., 2016a. Spatial and temporal patterns of mercury concentrations in freshwater fish across the western United States and Canada. Sci. Total Environ. 568, 1171–1184.

Fleck, J.A., Marvin-DiPasquale, M., Eagles-Smith, C.A., Ackerman, J.T., Lutz,M.A., Tate,M., et al., 2016. Mercury and methylmercury in aquatic sediment across western NorthAmerica. Sci. Total Environ. 568:727–738.

Greenfield, B. AR. Melwani, RM. Allen, DG. Slotton, SM. Ayers, KH. Harrold, K Ridolfi , A Jahn, JL Grenier, MB. Sandheinrich. 2013. Seasonal and annual trends in forage fish mercury concentrations, San Francisco Bay. Science of the Total Environment 444:591–601

Jonsson S, Skyllberg U, Nilsson MB, Westlund PO, Shchukarev A (2012) Mercury methylation rates for geochemically relevant HgII species in sediments. Environ Sci Technol 2012:11653–11659

Slotten, D., SM. Ayers, TH. Suchanek, RD. Weyand, AM. Liston, C Asher, DC. Nelson, and B Johnson. 2002 The Effects of Wetland Restoration on the Production and Bioaccumulation of Methylmercury in the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta, California. Assessment of Ecological and Human Health Impacts of Mercury in the San Francisco Bay-Delta Wateshed, A CALFED Bay-Delta Program Project. October 1999 – March 2003. DRAFT FINAL REPORT – presented at January Workshop, re-presented with permission in June.

Weiss-Penzias, P.S., Gay, D.A., Brigham, M.E., Parsons, M.T., Gustin, M.S., Ter Schure, A.,2016. Trends in mercury wet deposition and mercury air concentrations across the U.S. and Canada. Sci. Total Environ. 568, 546–556.