menéndez, re & kind flood risk maps & salinity front facultad de ingenierÍa universidad de...

Menéndez, Re & Kind

Flood risk maps & salinity front

FACULTAD DE INGENIERÍAUNIVERSIDAD DE BUENOS AIRES

REGIONAL AIACC WORKSHOPBuenos Aires, Argentina

August, 2004

BUILDING FLOOD RISK MAPS,ASSESING SALINITY FRONT

DISPLACEMENT

Angel Menéndez, Mariano Re, Martín Kind INA (Laboratorio de Hidráulica)

UBA (Facultad de Ingeniería)




PRESENTATION

• Floods in the future

• Model for salinity front

THE END

• Model for flood maps

• Salinity front in the future




FORCINGS

Tributaries

Tide

Winds




MODEL RPP-2D

MontevideoPunta del

Este

Colonia

Martín

García

Buenos Aires

La Plata

Mar del Plata

Monte Hermoso

San Clemente

40° 30' S61° 30' W 51° 30' W

32° 24' S

(Re & Menéndez 2003)




BOTTOM TOPOGRAPHY




HYDRODYNAMIC MODELRPP-2D

• Spatial domain = 1018 x 953 km• Spatial step = 2,5 km • Grid : 408 x 382• Temporal step = 60 s (720 steps/cycle)• Bound. Cond. South : Astronomical tidal

wave• Bound. Cond. Tributaries : Discharge• Wind : Field distribution

MontevideoPunta del

Este

Colonia

Martín

García

Buenos Aires

La Plata

Mar del Plata

Monte Hermoso

San Clemente

40° 30' S61° 30' W 51° 30' W

32° 24' S




PURELY ASTRONOMICAL TIDE

Oyarvide Station

-1.40

-1.20

-1.00

-0.80

-0.60

-0.40

-0.20

0.00

0.20

0.40

0.60

0.80

1.00

1.20

1.40

120 168 216 264 312 360 408 456 504 552 600 648 696 744 792

Tiempo (hrs)

Nivel (m)

Modelo Tabla

-25.00

-20.00

-15.00

-10.00

-7.50

-5.00

-2.50

0.00

SEGMENTACION DEL RÍO DE LA PLATA

República Oriental del Uruguay

RepúblicaArgentina

Río Uruguay

Paraná delas Palmas

6350000.006400000.006450000.006500000.006550000.006600000.006650000.00

6000000.00

6050000.00

6100000.00

6150000.00

6200000.00

6250000.00




CURRENT VELOCITIES

Records by Hidrovía S.A.

-0.80

-0.60

-0.40

-0.20

0.00

0.20

0.40

0.60

0.80

1.00

25-Jul-96 28-Jul-96 31-Jul-96 03-Ago-96 06-Ago-96 09-Ago-96 12-Ago-96

Velocidad N-S (m/s)

Observada Simulada

-1.00

-0.80

-0.60

-0.40

-0.20

0.00

0.20

0.40

0.60

0.80

1.00

25-Jul-96 28-Jul-96 31-Jul-96 03-Ago-96 06-Ago-96 09-Ago-96 12-Ago-96

Velocidad W-E (m/s)

-25.00

-20.00

-15.00

-10.00

-7.50

-5.00

-2.50

0.00

SEGMENTACION DEL RÍO DE LA PLATA

República Oriental del Uruguay

RepúblicaArgentina

Río Uruguay

Paraná delas Palmas

6350000.006400000.006450000.006500000.006550000.006600000.006650000.00

6000000.00

6050000.00

6100000.00

6150000.00

6200000.00

6250000.00




STORM SURGE

Oyarvide station, astronomical tide filtered out(November, 1989)




STORM SURGEBuenos Aires station, including astronomical tide

(May, 2000)




COMPARISON OF MEAN WATER LEVEL

Buenos Aires, decade 1990 (present)

0.00

0.20

0.40

0.60

0.80

1.00

1.20

VERANO OTOÑO INVIERNO PRIMAVERA NMEDIO

nivel (m)

Observación Simulación




MEAN WATER LEVEL

Buenos Aires

1990 1991

1993 1994




COMPARISON WITH TOPEX DATA

Mean Summer conditions




COMPARISON WITH TOPEX DATA

Mean Winter conditions




WATER LEVEL FREQUENCY DISTRIBUTION CURVE

Buenos Aires, decade 1990 (present)

0.00

0.01

0.02

0.03

0.04

0.05

0.06

0.07

0.08

0.09

0.10

-2.00 -1.50 -1.00 -0.50 0.00 0.50 1.00 1.50 2.00 2.50 3.00 3.50

Nivel (m)

Frecuencia de Niveles (%)

Observación Simulación




FREQUENCY DISTRIBUTION

Buenos Aires

1990 1991

1993 1994




RECURRENCE OF EXTREME WATER LEVELS

Buenos Aires

2.00

2.20

2.40

2.60

2.80

3.00

3.20

3.40

3.60

3.80

4.00

1 10 100

Recurrencia (años)

Nivel (m IGM)

Total Presente




FLOOD RISK MAPS




FLOOD RISK MAPS(Re, Menéndez &

Ludueña 2004)




FUTURE SCENARIOS OF SEA LEVEL RISE




PREDICTION OF MEAN WATER LEVEL

Buenos Aires

1.06

0.780.71

1.02

0.89

1.17

0.880.94

1.15

1.03

1.39

1.111.08

1.41

1.24

0.11 0.10

0.23

0.14 0.14

0.33 0.330.36

0.390.36

0.00

0.20

0.40

0.60

0.80

1.00

1.20

1.40

1.60

verano otoño invierno primavera nmedio

nivel (m)

1997 2037 2077 dif 2037-1997 dif 2077-1997




MEAN WATER LEVEL INCREASE

2030





2070





Summer 2070





Fall 2070





Winter 2070





Spring 2070




PREDICTION OF WATER LEVEL FREQUENCY DISTRIBUTION

Buenos Aires

-0.10

-0.05

0.00

0.05

0.10

0.15

0.20

-3.00 -2.00 -1.00 0.00 1.00 2.00 3.00 4.00 5.00

1997 2037 2077 dif 2037 - 1997 dif 2077 - 1997




RECURRENCE OF EXTREME WATER LEVELS Buenos Aires

0.00

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

3.00

3.50

4.00

4.50

5.00

1 10 100

Recurrencia (años)

Nivel pico (m MOP)

1990s 2030s 2070s




RISK MAPS2030




RISK MAPS2070




RISK MAPS




SALINITY DISTRIBUTION

(Guerrero et al. 1997)




DOMAIN MODEL RPP-3D

(Kind & Menéndez 2004)




HYDRODYNAMIC MODELRPP-3D

• Spatial domain = 575 x 487.5 km• Spatial step = 2,5 km • Grid : 230 x 195 x 8• Temporal step = 4 s (2D) and 320 s (3D)• Bound. Cond. Ocean : Tidal wave from

RPP-2D• Bound. Cond. Tributaries : Discharge• Wind : Field distribution




WIND FIELD

Mean conditions

Summer Winter




COMPARISON RPP-3D vs. RPP-2D




MODEL RPP-3D

Comparison measurement-simulation (Winter)

Surface Bottom




MODEL RPP-3D

Comparison measurement-simulation (Summer)

Surface Bottom




MODEL RPP-3D

Longitudinal cut

Comparison measurement-simulation (Winter)




MODEL RPP-3D

Longitudinal cut

Comparison measurement-simulation (Summer)




SCENARIO WITH 1 m INCREASE(maximum proyection for 2100)

(Winter)

Surface Bottom




COMPARISON

Bottom, present Bottom, +1m

(Winter)




SCENARIO WITH 1 m INCREASE

Difference with present (Winter)

Surface Bottom





Difference with present (Summer)

Surface Bottom




SCENARIO WITH 4 m INCREASE(stabilization year 3000)

(Winter)

Surface Bottom





Difference with present (Winter)

Surface Bottom




Thank you...

menéndez, re & kind flood risk maps & salinity front facultad de ingenierÍa universidad de...

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