Melting of glaciers: During the last 27 years the Quelccaya glacier in Peru retracted. At its place a lake of melted water appeared

Lonnie Thompson, Ohio State University

Temperate regions: From 1990 to 2005 the Morteratsch glacier in the Bernina area

(Switzerland) retracted several ten meters.

Macroecology and global change

Kilimanjaro

The pole caps

During three years the north polar ice shields shrinked by about 30%.

http://www.grida.no/climate/ipcc_tar/wg1/index.htm

http://www.ipcc.ch/SPM2feb07.pdf

Predicted changes in winter precipitation up to 2100

Predicted changes in summer precipitation up to 2100

The worst case scenario (steady rise in CO2 emissions

Measured temperatures, precipitation and snow cover (northern hemisphere) since

1850.

Global Average Sea Level Change 1990 to 2100

Primary causes of endangerment for 98 US plant species

Agriculture5%

Grazing11%

Military1%

Logging7%

Development21%

Roads4%

Oil, Gas, Mining8%

Off-road vehicles6%

Collecting10%

Fire control4%

Trampling8%

Natural causes1%

Water control8%

Exotics6%

What is global change?

Major global environmental global changes

Climate changeClimate change is manifest through the increase of atmospheric CO2 and other greenhouse gases

Stratospheric ozone lossO3 protect us from the harmful effects of ultraviolet rays. It is destroyed by chlorofluorocarbons

Air pollutionAir pollution, once thought to be of only local importance (SMOG) has now become a global problem

Ocean pollutionPollution more and more reduce the ability of the world’s oceans to sustain life and to provide food

Major global environmental global changes

Fresh water issuesA rising number of countries has problems to provide it’s people with fresh water

Soil degradationOver the past 50 years, about 11% of the earth’s vegetated land surface has experienced moderate top extreme soil degradation

Biodiversity lossAlthough estimates are very imprecise it seems clear that we are actually undergoing a phase of mass extinction.

Global changes

Biogeological cycles- elevated CO2 and other

greenhouse gases- nutrient loading- water consumption

Biodiversity- richness- evenness- composition- interactions

Life history traitsEvolutionary traits

Human activities

Economicbenefits

Culturalbenefits

Ecosystem processes

Species invasion

Land use- type- intensity

A simplified model of the role of biodiversity in global change

Modified from Chapin et al. (2000)

Potential change in area occupied by 10 North American forest types. Mean values of five climatic scenarios that gave similar results

(modified. From Iverson and Prasad 2001).

-750 -500 -250 0 250 500 750

Area in 1000 km2

Aspen - birchMaple - beech - birch

Elm - ash - cottonwood

Oak - gum - cypressOak - hickory

Oak - pine

Loblolly - shortical pine

Longleaf - slash pine

Spruce fireWhite - red - jack pine

ParkRanked geogr.

position

Current species number

Species lost

Species gained

Gained - lost

Acadia 3 43 3 8 5Big Bend 8 48 10 22 12Glacier 1 52 2 45 43GSM 7 48 8 29 21Shenandoah 4 33 3 11 8Yellowstone 2 53 0 49 49Yosemite 5 64 6 25 19Zion 6 53 1 41 40

R2 = 0.27

R2 = 0.58

00.10.20.30.40.50.60.70.80.9

1

0 2 4 6 8 10

Rank geographic position [north to south]

Rel

. spe

cies

turn

over

Gaines

Losses

Data from Burns et al. (2003)

Relative effects of major drivers on changes in biodiversity. Land use was given the value of 1.

Major drivers on changes in biodiversity

0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1

Land use

Climate

N deposition

Biotic exchange

CO2

Effect of five important drivers on future biodiversity change for 12 terrestrial and freshwater ecosystems or biomes.

Arctic

00.2

0.40.6

0.81

Land

use

Clim

ate N

Exc

hang

e

CO

2

Apine

0

0.20.4

0.60.8

1

Land

use

Clim

ate N

Exc

hang

e

CO

2

Savanna

00.2

0.40.6

0.81

Land

use

Clim

ate N

Exc

hang

e

CO

2

Lakes

0

0.20.4

0.60.8

1

Land

use

Clim

ate N

Exc

hang

e

CO

2Northern temperate forests

00.2

0.40.6

0.81

Land

use

Clim

ate N

Exc

hang

e

CO

2

Southern temperate forests

0

0.20.4

0.60.8

1

Land

use

Clim

ate N

Exc

hang

e

CO

2

Boreal

00.2

0.40.6

0.81

Land

use

Clim

ate N

Exc

hang

e

CO

2

Grassland

0

0.20.4

0.60.8

1

Land

use

Clim

ate N

Exc

hang

e

CO

2

Mediteranean

00.2

0.40.6

0.81

Land

use

Clim

ate N

Exc

hang

e

CO

2

Desert

0

0.20.4

0.60.8

1

Land

use

Clim

ate N

Exc

hang

e

CO

2

Tropical forests

00.2

0.40.6

0.81

Land

use

Clim

ate N

Exc

hang

e

CO

2

Streams

0

0.20.4

0.60.8

1

Land

use

Clim

ate N

Exc

hang

e

CO

2

Relative amounts of change under the assumption that major drivers act independent

Relative amounts of change under the assumption that major drivers act synergistic

http://www.deh.gov.au/biodiversity/science/bdac/greenhouse/index.html

Ecosystem/taxa Expected impacts Reference

Vertebrates Range reductions are suggested for the majority of species although a few might increase their range. For example in south-east Australia, of 42 species studied, 15 may have no suitable bioclimate if there is a 3oC rise in temperature. For some species (such as Mountain Pygmy Possum Burramys parvus, and some frogs) their bioclimate may disappear completely if mean temperatures rise 1o. Higher CO2 will tend to reduce foliage quality below critical levels.

Brereton et al. 1995, Dexter et al. 1995, Chapman & Milne 1998, Pouliquen- Young & Newman 2000, Hilbert et al. 2001b, Kanowski 2001

Invertebrates The bioclimates of 92% of butterfly species are predicted to decrease, with 83% declining by at least 50% if mean temperatures increase by 2.1 to 3.9°C. Large changes in range are projected. About 10% of species studied are vulnerable due to particular life history characteristics. Foliage quality could be affected, as for vertebrates.

Beaumont & Hughes 2002, Johns & Hughes 2002

Climate Change Impacts on Biodiversity in Australia

http://www.geo.ucl.ac.be/accelerates/

CE: crisis ecoregions; BH: biodiversity hotspots; EBA: endemic rd areas; CPD: centers of plant diversity; MC: megadiversity countries; G200: global 200 ecoregions; HBWA: high

biodiversity wilderness areas; FF: frontier forests; LW: last of the wild

Global biodiversity conservation priorities

From Brooks T. M. et al. (2006)

Crisis ecoregion

Biodiverity hotspots

Endemic bird areas

Centres of plant

diversity

Megadiversity countries

Global 200 ecoregions

High biodiversity wilderness

areas

Frontier forests

Last of the wild

Crisis ecoregion - 33 14 10 44 36 2 1 4Biodiverity hotspots 61 - 33 21 46 78 0 5 6Endemic bird areas 43 50 - 24 68 70 7 11 11Centres of plant diversity

34 40 28 - 48 66 18 14 21

Megadiversity countries

38 21 19 12 - 53 18 11 24

Global 200 ecoregions

28 33 19 15 48 - 16 16 28

High biodiversity wilderness areas

6 0 15 19 79 72 - 41 53

Frontier forests 4 8 11 13 39 64 35 - 73Last of the wild 5 4 4 7 34 43 17 28 -Percent land area 30 16 10 9 35 37 8 9 24

Spatial overlap (percents) between nine priority approaches

From Brooks T. M. et al. (2006)

Today’s reading

Climate change: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Climate_change

Climate change and biodiversity: http://www.jncc.gov.uk/pdf/MJHGlobalclimatechange_14.08.03.pdf

IPCC: http://www.ipcc.ch/index.htm