56 Megatrend Fact Sheets

(briefing document for long-term planning and innovation sessions)

2014 edition

@fdemeyer

frederic@i4fi.com

fredericdemeyer.com

Instituteforfutureinsights

fdemeyer

• This document has been acquired for the internal use of the acquiring company. It can be spread and shown internally in the company. It can be shown but not distributed to people external to the acquiring company.

Terms of use

• The trends discussed in this document are not predictions, but developments that are currently deploying and of which the full extend and long-term impact are relatively unknown.

• The categorization in ‘themes’ is not a scientific exercise. Some of the trends discussed under a specific theme could have been included in other themes.

• The ‘Major industries impacted’ and ‘Impact certitude’ sections are based on judgment from i4fi. They are meant as ‘eye-opener’ and do not result from any scientific process.

Before you use this document

What you will find in the fact sheets

‘Key facts’ about the

megatrend1-2 key graphics or

charts relating to

the megatrend

• Major industries impacted • 5-10-15

years impact certitude

‘Sources and further

reading’ leads you to +300

valuable reports,

articles and infographs, saving you

hours of research

‘Back to menu’ button

for easy navigation

Major changes vs previous release

14 new trends covered, 3 left out

98% new charts and graphics New section:

• major industries impacted • 5-10-15

years impact certitude

Extended ‘Sources and

further reading’

notes. +98% date after

2010

Using the fact sheets in innovation workshops

Step 1: discuss megatrends

Step 2: Whiteboard selection & discussion of trends with highest impact

Step 3: Idea generation on how to prepare for threats or benefit from opportunities, discussion an selection of best idea

Works best with:• 2 teams of 5-6 people per theme;• people from different background and seniority level;• send fact sheets prior to workshop.

Institutions-organizations

• Asian Development Bank• Conference Board• Eurostat• The Heritage Foundation• London Management

School• MIT• NASA• OECD• Schwab Foundation• UNEP-GRID• UNFPO• United Nations• Vlerick Management School• World Bank• World Economic Forum• World Futurist Society• World Health Organization• World Resources Forum• World Resource Institute• World Wildlife Fund (WWF)

List of major sourcesBlogs:

• Alaklett• Brandon Gaille• Business Insider• Crowdsourcing.org• I4fi• Inhabitat• Mashable• Nextnature• Quartz• Renewable Energy• Social Media Today• Techcrunch• Trendhunter• Urban Mining• Venturebeat

Consultancies:

• Accenture• AT Kearney• Board of Innovation• Boston Consultancy

Group• Eurominotor• E&Y• Forrester• Gallup• IDC• JWT Intelligence• KPMG• McKinsey • McKinsey Global

Institute• Nielsen• PEW Research• PWC

News and media:

• BBC• Business Week• CIO Magazine• The Economist• Energy Bulletin• Entrepreneur

Magazine• The Fast Company• Forbes Magazine• The Guardian• Huffington Post• Inc. Magazine• Information Week• MSNBC• PR Newswire• Scientific American• Thomson Reuters• Wall Street Journal• Washington Post• Wired

Corporations:

• Alcatel-Lucent• Cisco• Credit Suisse• Ericsson

• Intel• Microsoft• Saatchi• SAP• Symantec

(go to presentation mode to navigate from and to this slide)

• Demographic trends– Growing world population– Ageing population– Migration patterns– Urbanization– Gap rich-poor– Generation Y– Generation Z– War for talent

• Environment and sustainability– Climate change– Scarce resources– Peak oil– Water shortage– Food stress– Clean energy– Smart cities– Bio materials– Cradle-to-cradle– Micro sustainable

innovations– Eco activism

• Geopolitical trends– Power shift– Globalization 3.0– Rising middle class– Energy dependence– The Market State

• Consumer & societal trends– Mass customization– Ethical buying– ‘Buy local’– Social & Group buying– Personalization– Sharing economy– Radical transparency– Massive Open Online

Courses (MOOCs)

– Personal Health– Digital divide

• Technology trends– Big Data/ data science– Internet of Things (IoT)– Augmented Reality– Consumerization of IT (BYOD)– Technology ‘as a Service’– Home 3D printing– Business 3D printing– Bioprinting– Enhanced Humans– Wearable Technologies

• Business trends– Life Cycle Assessment– Disintermediation– Crowdsourcing & funding– Open innovation– Gamification– Corporate Social Responsibility

(CSR)– Cause Marketing– Social Business Innovation– Social entrepreneurs– Intrapreneurship– Businesses get social– Virtualization of the

corporation

56 megatrends

Demographic trends

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M- Food

U- Water

P- Health Care

M- Pharma

M- FMCG

Main sectors impacted

5 years

10 years

>10 years

100%

Impact certitude

Growing world population

Most of the population growth will occur in developing regions, which are projected to increase from 5.9 billion in 2013 to 8.2 billion in 2050. During the same period, the population of developed regions will remain largely unchanged at around 1.3 billion people. Growth is expected to be most rapid in the 49 least developed countries, which are projected to double in size from around 900 million inhabitants in 2013 to 1.8 billion in 2050.

Key facts:

Impact:

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F = FinanceM = ManufacturingR = RetailU = UtilitiesT = TransportP = Public Sector

= opportunity = threat

= both

M- Pharma

P- Health Care

P- Government

F- Insurance

T- Public Transport

Main sectors impacted

Ageing population

• By 2030 one in every 8 inhabitant of the earth will be 65 or older;• In developing countries the portion of 65+ inhabitants will increase from 6% now to 15% in 2050, in the developed world the portion will grow from 16% now to 26% in 2050;• This will put (further) strain on public finances and health provision, and will modify consumption patterns.

Key facts:

Impact:

5 years

10 years

>10 years

100%

Impact certitude

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F = FinanceM = ManufacturingR = RetailU = UtilitiesT = TransportP = Public Sector

= opportunity = threat

= both

P- Defence

P- Government

P- Education

R- Retail

M- Construction

Main sectors impacted

Key facts:

• While past and current migration patterns are mainly influenced by economic and political causes, in the next decades this might change:

o Ecological immigration (for instance because of increased drought, which will drive populations inland or further North/South);

o Diaspora returning home (which already happens for India and a number of East European countries);

o Western youngsters migrating to emerging countries for better career opportunities.The green circles represent places where more people are coming in, and the

orange circles show countries where more people are leaving.

Migration patterns

Impact:

5 years

10 years

>10 years

100%

Impact certitude

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F = FinanceM = ManufacturingR = RetailU = UtilitiesT = TransportP = Public Sector

= opportunity = threat

= both

M- Construction

T- Public Transport

R- Retail

P- Health Care

M- Technology

Main sectors impacted

Key facts:

• 50.5% of humans now live in cities. By 2050 this will have grown to 82% in Northern America, 70% in Europe and 65% in Asia and Africa;• The number of megacities (>10 million inhabitants) will grow from 21 to 29 in 2025, when they will account for 10% of urban population;• Africa’s urban population will become the second largest in the world, next to Asia.

Urbanization

Impact:

5 years

10 years

>10 years

100%

Impact certitude

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F = FinanceM = ManufacturingR = RetailU = UtilitiesT = TransportP = Public Sector

= opportunity = threat

= both

P- Health Care

P- Government

M- FMCG

M- Food

P- Education

Main sectors impacted

5 years

10 years

>10 years

100%

Impact certitude

Key facts:

• Of total world income, 42 per cent goes to those who make up the richest 10 per cent of the world’s population, while just 1 per cent goes to those who make up the poorest 10 per cent.• Among developed economies, the USA has one of the highest income inequality levels, with its Gini coefficient reaching 47.4% in 2011, compared to only 34.4% in Germany.

Gap rich-poor

Impact:

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F = FinanceM = ManufacturingR = RetailU = UtilitiesT = TransportP = Public Sector

= opportunity = threat

= both

• This document is a sample of the 56 Megatrend Fact Sheet document of i4fi. To acquire the full document please go to: http://www.fredericdemeyer.com/2014/01/56-megatrends-fact-sheets-2014.html

How to get the full document

any additional questions: frederic@i4fi.commegatrend blog: www.fredericdemeyer.com

additional services: www.i4fi.com