megapoli sr11-24 vf.pdf

MEGAPOLI Scientific Report 11-24

Third Year MEGAPOLI Dissemination Report Megacities: Emissions, urban, regional and Global

Atmospheric POLlution and climate effects, and Integrated tools for assessment and mitigation

MEGAPOLI Deliverable 9.4.3

A. Baklanov, A. Mahura (Eds.)

2011

FP7 EC MEGAPOLI Project

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Colophon Serial title: MEGAPOLI Project Scientific Report 11-24 Title: Third Year MEGAPOLI Dissemination Report Subtitle: MEGAPOLI Deliverable 9.4.3 Editor(s): A. Baklanov, A. Mahura Main Author(s): MEGAPOLI WP and Team Leaders Contributing Author(s): Alexander Baklanov (DMI), Mark Lawrence (MPIC), Spyros Pandis (FORTH), Alexander Mahura (DMI), Sandro Finardi (ARIANET), Nicolas Moussiopoulos (AUTH), John Douros (AUTH), George Tsegas (AUTH), Matthias Beekmann (CNRS-LISA), Jean Sciare (CNRS-LSCE), Paolo Laj (CNRS-LAMP), Laurent Gomes (CNRS-GAME), Jean-Luc Jaffrezo (CNRS-LGGE), Jaakko Kukkonen (FMI), Jukka-Pekka Jalkanen (FMI), Filippo Giorgi (ICTP), Sue Grimmond (KCL), Igor Esau (NERSC), Andreas Stohl (NILU), Urs Baltensperger (PSI), Denier Van der Gon (TNO), Peter Builtjes (TNO), Dick Van den Hout (TNO), Bill Collins (MetO), Heinke Schluenzen (UHam), Markku Kulmala (UHel), Ranjeet Sokhi (UH-CAIR), Rainer Friedrich (USTUTT), Jochen Theloke (USTUTT), Melinda Uzbasich (USTUTT), Liisa Jalkanen (WMO), Tomas Halenka (CUNI), Alfred Wiedensohler (IfT), Stefano Galmarini (JRC), John Pyle (UCam), Maria Russo (UCam) Responsible institution(s): MEGAPOLI Project Office Danish Meteorological Institute (DMI), Lyngbyvej 100, DK-2100 Copenhagen, Denmark Contact e-mail: [email protected] Language: English Keywords: - Url: http://megapoli.dmi.dk/publ/MEGAPOLI_sr11-24.pdf Digital ISBN: - MEGAPOLI: MEGAPOLI-50-REP-2011-10 Website: www.megapoli.info Copyright: FP7 EC MEGAPOLI Project


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MEGAPOLI Project Teams

Beneficiary Number *

Beneficiary name Beneficiary short name

Country

1 (coord.) Danish Meteorological Institute DMI Denmark

2 (co-coord.) Foundation for Research and Technology, Hellas, University of Patras

FORTH Greece

3 (co-coord.) Max Planck Institute for Chemistry MPIC Germany

4 ARIANET Consulting (SME) ARIANET Italy

5 Aristotle University Thessaloniki AUTH Greece

6 Centre National de Recherche Scientifique (incl. LISA, LAMP, LSCE, GAME, LGGE)

CNRS France

7 Finnish Meteorological Institute FMI Finland

8 Joint Research Center, Ispra JRC Italy

9 International Centre for Theoretical Physics ICTP Italy

10 King's College London KCL UK

11 Nansen Environmental and Remote Sensing Center

NERSC Norway

12 Norwegian Institute for Air Research NILU Norway

13 Paul Scherrer Institute PSI Switzerland

14 TNO-Built Environment and Geosciences TNO The Netherlands

15 UK MetOffice MetO UK

16 University of Hamburg UHam Germany

17 University of Helsinki UHel Finland

18 University of Hertfordshire – Centre for Atmospheric and Instrumentation Research

UH-CAIR UK

19 University of Stuttgart USTUTT Germany

20 World Meteorological Organization WMO Switzerland (International)

21 Charles University, Prague CUNI Czech Republic

22 Institute of Tropospheric Research IfT Germany

23 Centre for Atmospheric Science, University of Cambridge

UCam UK


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Content: MEGAPOLI Project Teams .................................................................................................................3 1. Project Summary..............................................................................................................................5 2. Project Objectives, Milestones and Deliverables for the 3rd year ....................................................9 2.1 Planned Deliverables......................................................................................................................9 2.2 Published MEGAPOLI Project Reports/ Deliverables ................................................................10 3. Work progress and achievements during the period......................................................................12 3.1. WP1: Emissions ..........................................................................................................................12 3.2. WP2: Megacity environments: features, processes and effects ..................................................22 3.3. WP3: Megacity plume case study...............................................................................................29 3.4. WP4: Megacity Air Quality ........................................................................................................39 3.5. WP5: Regional and global atmospheric composition.................................................................48 3.6. WP6: Regional and global climate effects..................................................................................64 3.7. WP7: Integrated tools and implementation.................................................................................72 3.8. WP8: Mitigation, policy options and impact assessment ...........................................................88 4. List of the MEGAPOLI project meetings, dates and venues.........................................................95 Previous MEGAPOLI Reports...........................................................................................................99


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1. Project Summary The FP7 EC MEGAPOLI (Megacities: Emissions, urban, regional and Global Atmospheric POLlution and climate effects, and Integrated tools for assessment and mitigation; http://megapoli.info) project brings together leading European research groups, state-of-the-art scientific tools and key players from non-European countries to investigate the interactions among megacities, air quality and climate. MEGAPOLI bridges the spatial and temporal scales that connect local emissions, air quality and weather with global atmospheric chemistry and climate. The main achieved MEGAPOLI objectives are the following:

to assess impacts of megacities and large air-pollution “hot-spots” on local, regional, and global air quality and climate;

to quantify feedbacks between megacity emissions, air quality, local and regional climate, and global climate change;

to develop and implement improved, integrated tools to assess the impacts of air pollution from megacities on regional and global air quality and climate and to evaluate the effectiveness of mitigation option.

In order to achieve these objectives, the main steps taken in the project were the following:

• Develop and evaluate integrated methods to improve megacity emission data; • Investigate physical and chemical processes starting from the megacity street level,

continuing to the city, regional and global scales; • Assess regional and global air quality impacts of megacity plumes; • Determine the main mechanisms of regional meteorology/climate forcing due to megacity

plumes; • Assess global megacity pollutant forcing on climate; • Examine feedback mechanisms including effects of climate change on megacity air quality; • Develop integrated tools for prediction of megacity air quality; • Evaluate these integrated tools and use them in case studies; • Develop a methodology to estimate the impacts of different scenarios of megacity

development on human health and climate change; • Propose and assess mitigation options to reduce the impacts of megacity emissions.

MEGAPOLI followed a pyramid strategy of undertaking detailed measurements in one European major city, Paris, performing detailed analysis for up to 12 megacities with existing air quality datasets and investigate the effects of all megacities on climate. The results have been disseminated to authorities, policy community, researchers and the other stakeholders in the corresponding megacities. MEGAPOLI included both basic and applied research, and bridged the spatial and temporal scales that connect local emissions, air quality and weather conditions with global atmospheric chemistry and climate. In order to fulfil the objectives the following scientific questions have been addressed:

Q1: What is the change of exposure of the overall population to the major air pollutants as people move into megacities? What are the health impacts of this exposure? (Objective 1) Q2: How do megacities affect air quality on regional and global scales? What is the range of influence for major air pollutants (ozone, particulate matter, etc.)? (Objective 1)


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Q3: What are the major physical and chemical transformations of air pollutants as they are moving away from megacities? What happens to the organic particulate matter, volatile organic compounds, etc? (Objective 1) Q4: How accurate are the current emission inventories for megacities in Europe and around the world? What are the major gaps? (Objective 1) Q5: How large is the current impact of megacities on regional and global climate? (Objective 2) Q6: How will the growth of megacities affect future climate at global and regional scales? (Objective 2) Q7: What is the impact of large-scale dynamic processes on air pollution from megacities? (Objective 2) Q8: What are the key feedbacks between air quality, local climate and global climate change relevant to megacities? For example, how will climate change affect air quality in megacities? (Objective 2) Q9: How should megacities (emissions, processing inside megacities, meteorology) be parameterised in regional and global models? (Objective 3) Q10: What type of modelling tools should be used for the simulation of multi-scale megacity air quality - climate interactions? (Objective 3) Q11: Which policy options are available to influence the emissions of air pollutants and greenhouse gases in megacities and how can these options be assessed? (Objective 3)

In order to answer the above questions and achieve the main objectives the following tasks were performed:

T1: Develop and evaluate integrated methodologies to improve emission data from megacities on regional through global scales; (Objective 1) T2: Investigate physical and chemical processes starting from the street level in a megacity, continuing to the megacity scale, and then to the regional and global scales; (Objective 1) T3: Assess regional and global impacts of megacity plumes, including: atmospheric transport (local pollution build-up and its regional/global transport) and chemical transformation of gas and aerosol pollutants emitted in megacities; (Objective 1) T4: Quantify impacts of polluted air-masses on larger scale atmospheric dynamics (physics and chemistry, hydrological processes, long-range/hemispheric transport, etc.); (Objective 2) T5: Determine the main mechanisms of regional meteorology/climate forcing due to megacity plumes; (Objective 2) T6: Assess global megacity aerosol/pollutant forcing and its effects on global climate; (Objective 2) T7: Examine feedback mechanisms including effects of climate change on megacity environment and emissions; (Objective 2) T8: Develop improved integrated tools for prediction of air pollution in megacities; (Objective 3) T9: Evaluate these integrated modelling tools and use them in case studies for selected megacities; (Objective 3) T10: Develop and apply a methodology to estimate the impacts of different scenarios of megacity development on human health and climate change; (Objective 3) T11: Propose and assess mitigation options to reduce the impacts of megacity emissions: provide support for European Commission’s new air pollution and climate change strategy and policies. (Objective 3)

The third year of work performed since the beginning of the MEGAPOLI project was focused on:

• Paris campaign database, analysis, and modelling; • Elaboration of future emission scenarios and mitigation strategies for megacities; • Multi-scale model developments, improvements, evaluation and integration;


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• Characterization of megacity impact on air quality and climate on the urban, regional and global scales;

• Implementation of integrated models for megacities in focus; • Synthesis of results and recommendations on key science questions and use of models

according to complexity; • Impact assessment of mitigation and policy options and assessment of policy strategies.

The main scientific results achieved during the project in the forms of answers on the main scientific questions and practical recommendations to the EC Air Policy Review are described in the MEGAPOLI Final Report (submitted to EC through the ECAS web-portal) and in the Brochure with Answers on the MEGAPOLI Scientific Questions (to be published in 1st quarter of 2012; see references and web-links below).

Figure 1: Work Packages (WPs) structure and integration.

The final results and their potential impacts of MEGAPOLI are the following. The project contributes to the strategic goal of promoting sustainable management of the environment and its resources. It is realised by advancing our knowledge on the interactions between air quality, climate and human activities related to large urban centres and hotspots. Megacities, constitute major sources of anthropogenic air pollution, and hence, affect the lives of hundreds of millions of people in the world directly by the quality of air that they breathe and through complex interactions resulting in climate change. Research within the project leads to improved modelling and assessment tools. In particular, MEGAPOLI formulated a European


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methodology for integrated air quality and climate assessment over multiple scales (from urban to global). MEGAPOLI placed, in particular, the emphasis on the interactions between air quality and climate change impacts resulting from megacities on regional to global scales and potential mitigation options. It will further lead to an integrated methodology and corresponding tools to assess these impacts both in Europe and elsewhere. MEGAPOLI leads to significant scientific innovations including:

(i) Integration of the interactions and processes affecting air quality and climate change on regional to global scales coupled with the capability of estimating the human, ecosystem and economic impacts of air pollution resulting from megacities;

(ii) Development of an integrated European methodology and tools to assess the impacts within and from megacities on the scales from city to global;

(iii) Integration of ground-based, aircraft and satellite technologies with state-of-the-art modelling tools;

(iv) Integrated approaches for addressing the feedbacks and interlinkages between climate change and regional air quality related to megacities;

(v) Integration of knowledge and practical implementation of improved tools according to level of complexity to a range of megacities and hotspots;

(vi) Improved current and future emission estimates for natural and anthropogenic sources of air pollutants;

(vii) Development of an integrated assessment methodology for supporting EU and global policy frameworks. This has been achieved through the assessment of mitigation options and the quantification of impacts from polluted air-masses on larger scale atmospheric dynamics;

(viii) Examination of the important feedbacks among air quality, climate and climate change; (ix) A robust, global information dissemination gateway on air quality, climate change and

mitigation and policy options for European stakeholders strengthening the European Research Area (ERA).

MEGAPOLI significantly extends the current state-of-the-art in the assessment capabilities within Europe by developing and implementing reliable integrated tools on multiple scales and for multiple pollutants. These are and will be applied to assess directly the impact of the largest urban centres and hotspots in Europe and globally by employing highly advanced as well as simpler tools. The project brings together current off-line approaches as well as new on-line methods enabling feedbacks to be quantified on multiple scales and enabling mitigation options to be examined more effectively. The official public website of the MEGAPOLI project is http://megapoli.info. It shows structurally general information on the project, partners and collaborators involved, key megacities in focus studied; description of workpackages, working plans, and contacts. The sections “News and Publications” and “Project Results” were frequently updated with information about recent relevant news, MEGAPOLI newsletters (published every 3 months), meetings, presentations, publications, and others.


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2. Project Objectives, Milestones and Deliverables for the 3rd year

The third year activities in MEGAPOLI included all three main MEGAPOLI objectives: to assess impacts of megacities and large air-pollution “hot-spots” on local, regional, and

global air quality and climate; to quantify feedbacks between megacity emissions, air quality, local and regional climate,

and global climate change; to develop and implement improved, integrated tools to assess the impacts of air pollution

from megacities on regional and global air quality and climate and to evaluate the effectiveness of mitigation options.

However, the main focus of the third year studies was placed on the following tasks: Elaboration of the future emission scenarios, as well as mitigation strategies for megacities, Paris measurement campaign data analysis and modelling of secondary aerosol formation

and validation studies, Multi-scale model developments, improvements, evaluation and integration, Characterization of megacity impact on air quality and climate on the urban, regional and

global scales, Implementation of integrated models for megacities in focus Synthesis of results and recommendations on key science questions and use of models

according to complexity Impact assessment of mitigation and policy options and assessment of policy strategies.

2.1 Planned Deliverables The following Deliverables (D) were planned for the last 18 months reporting period:

D1.1 - Base year global gridded emission inventory (1st version) D1.3 - European and mega city baseline scenarios for 2020, 2030 and 2050 D1.5 - Global emission inventory (final version) D1.6 - European heat flux inventory D2.4.2 - Urbanized turbulence-resolving model and evaluation against WP3 Paris plume data D2.5 - Improved urban parameterizations based on prognostic equations, utilizing LES results D2.6 - Evaluation of sub-grid models with interactions between turbulence and urban chemistry; recommendations for emission inventories improvement D2.7 - Improved parameterization of dispersion due to sub-grid heterogeneities in emission for different scale models (LES, mesoscale, regional and global) D3.1 - Database of chemical composition, size distribution and optical parameters of urban and suburban PM and its temporal variability (hourly to seasonal) D3.2 - Source appointment of major urban aerosol components (OC, BC, inorganic ions), including primary and secondary PM sources D3.3 - Effective emission factors for OC and BC for urban type emissions D3.4 - Database of the impact of megacity emissions on regional scale PM levels D3.5 - Evaluation of links between secondary VOCs and secondary organic aerosols of anthropogenic and biogenic origin D3.6 - Evaluation of state of the art CTMs using new experimental data sets D3.7 - Implementation of improved parameterizations of BC, OC emissions and secondary PM formation in CTMs


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D4.4 - Evaluation of methodologies for exposure analysis in urban areas and application to selected megacities D4.5 - Exposure maps for selected megacities D4.6 - Evaluation of source apportionment methods D5.3 - Evaluation and improvement of regional model simulations of megacity plumes D5.4 - Prediction of megacity impact on regional and global atmospheric composition D5.5 - Influence of regional scale emissions on megacity air quality D5.6 - Influence of North American megacities on European atmospheric composition D5.7 - Estimate of megacity impacts in a future climate D6.3 - Comparison of measured and modelled radiative effects D6.4 - Comparison of coupled and uncoupled models D6.5 - Meteorological fields for present and future climate conditions D6.6 - Regional and global climate changes due to megacities using coupled and uncoupled models D7.2 - Evaluation of integrated tools D7.3 - Implementation of integrated models for megacities D7.4 - Synthesis of results and recommendations on key science questions and use of models according to complexity D8.1 - Short, medium and long term abatement and mitigation strategies for megacities D8.2 - Impact assessment of mitigation and policy options D8.3 - Assessment of policy strategies D9.4.3. – 3rd Annual MEGAPOLI Dissemination Report D9.5 - Periodic report – 2nd MEGAPOLI Periodic Reporting to EC (covering period 1 Apr 2010 – 30 Sep 2011) D9.6 - Final MEGAPOLI report

2.2 Published MEGAPOLI Project Reports/ Deliverables

During the 3rd year the achieved project results have been reported in a series of scientific reports on MEGAPOLI Deliverables (see the list and web-links at the end of this report), five Newsletters (Sep 2010, Dec 2010, Mar 2011, Jun 2011, Sep 2011; http://megapoli.dmi.dk/nlet/newlet_main.html), presented at multiple conferences/workshops/etc. as oral and poster presentations, and in more than 60 journal publications (see more details at http://megapoli.info; and in Chapter 3 of this report at the end of each WPs1-8 sub-sections). Overall project results and conclusions are described in the Final MEGAPOLI Report (submitted to EC through the ECAS web-portal) and in the Brochure with Answers on the MEGAPOLI Scientific Questions (to be published in 1st quarter of 2012; see references and web-links below).

During the duration of the project two official MEGAPOLI web-sites have been maintained by the MEGAPOLI Project Office: the 1st web-site with an open access to public (http://megapoli.info or http://megapoli.dmi.dk) and the 2nd internal web-site (http://megapoliforum.dmi.dk) with a restricted access by the MEGAPOLI Partners/Teams. The public web-site shows structurally general information – such as the Project Info (including Project summary, Concept and objectives, State-of-the-art, Science and technology methodology, Expected impacts, References, and Abbreviations); Partners and Collaborators (including relevant projects); Megacities in Focus; WorkPackages Description (for WPs1-8); Working Plans (including list of Deliverables, Milestones, and Gantt chart).



Every quarter the MEGAPOLI NewsLetters (http://megapoli.dmi.dk/nlet/newlet_main.html) were prepared based on contributions from partners/ collaborators/ end-users and newsletters also represent a continuous dissemination from the project and these are informative of what has been achieved by the project. Newsletters were distributed by e-mail to almost 500 individuals/persons and more than 10 networks. A volume of the MEGAPOLI Newsletters (collection of 12 issues; 250 copies) had been published (Mahura A., Baklanov A. (Eds) (2011): MEGAPOLI NewsLetters, Volume, 200p.; ISBN: 978-87-92731-27-2; http://megapoli.dmi.dk/nlet/MEGAPOLI_NewsLetters_Volume.pdf) and distributed among participants of the Final MEGAPOLI Symposium as well as members of the project teams. Annual dissemination reports, focused on MEGAPOLI achievements, specifis tasks and WP results obtained during each year of the project, were summarized and published as well: 1) First annual report for dissemination (Del 9.4.1) – Baklanov A., Mahura A. (Eds) (2009): First Year MEGAPOLI Dissemination Report. Deliverable 9.4.1, MEGAPOLI Scientific Report 09-03, 57p, MEGAPOLI-03-REP-2009-12, ISBN: 978-87-992924-3-1 - is publicly available at http://megapoli.dmi.dk/publ/MEGAPOLI_sr09-03.pdf. 2) Second annual report for dissemination (Del 9.4.2) - Baklanov A., Mahura A. (Eds) (2010): Second Year MEGAPOLI Dissemination Report. Deliverable 9.4.2, MEGAPOLI Scientific Report 10-21, 89p, MEGAPOLI-24-REP-2010-12, ISBN: 978-87-92731-02-9 - is publicly available at http://megapoli.dmi.dk/publ/MEGAPOLI_sr10-21.pdf. 3) Third annual report for dissemination (Del 9.4.3) - Baklanov A., Mahura A. (Eds) (2011): Third Year MEGAPOLI Dissemination Report. Deliverable 9.4.3, MEGAPOLI Scientific Report 11-24, 98 p, MEGAPOLI-50-REP-2011-10 - is publicly available at http://megapoli.dmi.dk/publ/MEGAPOLI_sr11-24.pdf



3. Work progress and achievements during the period

3.1. WP1: Emissions Coordinated by Hugo Denier van der Gon (TNO) MEGAPOLI Partners involved: DMI, MPIC, ARIANET, FMI, KCL, TNO, USTUTT

Summary of progress toward objectives The first objective O1.1 (Compile regional and global emission inventories for all relevant/desired pollutants and GHGs) has been achieved through the compilation of regional (European) scale inventories. A consistent base year 2005 anthropogenic emission inventory (prototype) for Europe has been compiled and made available to the partners (D1.2). Natural regional and global fire emissions have been generated and a sea salt aerosol model has been evaluated and can be used to predict SS aerosol emissions. The second part of this objective; global emission inventory (D1.1) has also been completed and the before existing issues have been tackled. The global emission inventory has been made available to the modellers in MEGAPOLI. The second objective O1.2 (Deliver (high resolution) state-of-the-art gridded emission maps for present and projection years and nest more detailed Megacity inventories in the regional or global emission maps) has been achieved. The compiled regional scale emissions for the base year 2005 have been gridded on 1/8 x 1/16 degree resolution. The WP partners have actively contacted authorities in the 1st level megacities (Paris, London, Rhine-Ruhr area, Po Valley) responsible for local MegaCity (MC) emission data. A good cooperation was established and data were obtained from all four level 1 MCs. The local MC emissions were compared with default estimates, gridded and used to update and modify D1.2 into the final European scale MP emission map (see also partner contributions) (the result is described in the D1.6 (Final gridded European inventory) deliverable report. The third objective O1.3 (Development of a baseline scenario for 2020, 2030 and 2050 for Europe and the relevant megacities e.g. Paris, London, Rhine-Ruhr, Po Valley,) has been achieved. For all the relevant pollutants, scenarios have been generated consistent and starting from the base year 2005. The scenarios are based on consistent energy model runs. Resulting emissions are calculated for 41 European countries on the main source sector level. Emissions have been delivered to the modellers in the form of scaling factors per country and per sector with respect to 2005. With regard to the megacities, only for London there are scenarios made for 2050 and for the Po Valley projections are available for 2020 from GAINS. For the other regions, scenarios were developed using downscaling of available emissions to the megacity areas from the European scenarios. The fourth objective O1.4 (Validate and improve EI’s in cooperation with other WPs through comparison of measured-modelled concentrations, source strength analysis and use of source apportionment results) has been achieved through a strong cooperation with local bottom-up emission inventory compilers in the megacities. As a result, the European emission grid (D1.2) was improved to generate D1.6 and the global emission grid (D1.1) was improved to generate D1.5 with a more accurate representation of the global MCs and a consistent domain for the European MCs in both D1.5 and D1.6.

Summary details for each relevant WP deliverables and tasks Deliverable 1.1 - Base year global gridded emission inventory (1st version)



Report on this deliverable describes the global gridded emission inventory for the base year, which has been derived from the IPCC AR5 inventory. An analysis of per capita emissions is made, which shows large differences between the different megacities. H.A.C. Denier van der Gon, J. Kuenen, T. Butler (2010): A Base Year (2005) MEGAPOLI Global Gridded Emission Inventory (1st Version). Deliverable D1.1, MEGAPOLI Scientific Report 10-13, MEGAPOLI-16-REP-2010-06, 20p, ISBN: 978-87-993898-5-8

http://megapoli.dmi.dk/publ/MEGAPOLI_sr10-13.pdf

Deliverable 1.3 - European and mega city baseline scenarios for 2020, 2030 and 2050 Report on this deliverable contains a European baseline emission scenario for the pollutants CH4, N2O, CO2, CO, NMVOC, PM10, PM2.5, NH3, SO2, NOx for the reference years 2005, 2020, 2030, and 2050. The scenario has been generated on based on consistent energy model runs with the TIMES PanEU27 model. Emission factors from different sources have been applied to these activities. The results included emissions for 41 European countries on main sector level. The emissions for future years have been delivered to the modellers in terms of country and sector specific scaling factors in relation to the base year 2005. For the megacities (MCs), a survey has shown that little information is available for scenarios. Emission scenarios for future years have therefore been generated by downscaling available emissions to metropolitan areas.

Theloke J., M.Blesl, D. Bruchhof, T.Kampffmeyer, U. Kugler, M. Uzbasich, K. Schenk, H. Denier van der Gon, S. Finardi, P. Radice, R. S. Sokhi, K. Ravindra, S. Beevers, S. Grimmond, I. Coll, R. Frie-drich, D. van den Hout (2010): European and megacity baseline scenarios for 2020, 2030 and 2050. Deliverable D1.3, MEGAPOLI Scientific Report 10-23, MEGAPOLI-26-REP-2010-12, 57p, ISBN: 978-87-92731-04-3


Deliverable 1.5 - Global emission inventory (final version) is ready and available from the MEGAPOLI public website. The global inventory is based on the year 2000 historical emsisions from Lamarque et al. (2010), which are modified for the year 2005 according to the RCP-8.5 scenario (Riahi et al. 2007). The use of emission data from the CMPI5 project, supporting the IPCC 5th assessment report, allows the additional possibility of making use of several ready-made future emission scenarios spanning the 21st century. Butler T., H.A.C. Denier van der Gon, J. Kuenen (2011): The Base Year (2005) Global Gridded Emission Inventory used in the EU FP7 Project MEGAPOLI (Final Version). Deliverable D1.5, MEGAPOLI Scientific Report 11-02, MEGAPOLI-28-REP-2011-01, 27p, 978-87-92731-06-7


Deliverable 1.6 - European emission inventory (final version) Report on this deliverable includes, compared with D1.2, the final version of high-resolution emission inventories for the 4 selected megacities. A summary of the results including comparison of top-down and bottom-up emission estimates for megacities is available from the deliverable report. Kuenen J., H. Denier van der Gon, A. Visschedijk, H. van der Brugh, S. Finardi, P. Radice, A. d’Allura, S. Beevers, J. Theloke, M. Uz-basich, C. Honoré, O. Perrussel (2010): A Base Year (2005) MEGAPOLI European Gridded Emission Inventory (Final Version). Deliverable D1.6, MEGAPOLI Scientific Report 10-17, MEGAPOLI-20-REP-2010-10, 37p, ISBN: 978-87-993898-8-9


Tasks 1.1-1.2 and 1.5-1.7 have continued and were finalised during the 3rd year. Task 1.1: Global anthropogenic and natural emission inventories (lead: TNO, MPIC, FMI)

The global anthropogenic emission database has been completed (TNO, MPIC) and natural emissions have been prepared (FMI). For the global emission inventory, it was decided to use



the global gridded emission dataset for 2000 by Lamarque et al. (2010) which was developed in support of the IPCC 5th Assessment Report, updated to 2005 using the RCP 8.5 scenario for 2005 (Riahi et al., 2007). The database includes emissions for all main air pollutants which are relevant for tropospheric ozone and aerosol modelling. The emission database has been processed to meet the needs of the MEGAPOLI project. Within the global emission inventory, 36 MegaCities (MCs) around the world have been identified using a mask at 0.5 degree longitude by 0.5 degree latitude. The mega city emissions were compared based on emission per capita using city population data. It was found that there are large differences in per capita emissions between the different megacities, and also the share of emissions per source sector varies widely between the megacities (see D1.5 for details).

Task 1.2: Regional Pan-European anthropogenic emission inventory (lead: TNO, USTUTT)

A first version (D1.2) of the Pan-European anthropogenic emission inventory has been made available during the first half of the project. During the second reporting period, the final version (D1.6) has been made available. The work for the final version has focussed on including local emission inventories at high resolution (mostly 1x1 km) in the European baseline emission inventories. To this end, the local inventories have been completed (for missing sources and/or pollutants) and then compared to top-down emission estimates for the megacities which revealed large differences (described under Task 1.6). In the integration of the local emission inventories in the European inventory, national total emissions have been kept equal to the officially reported emissions under the Conventions for Climate Change and Air Pollution (UNFCCC and CLRTAP, respectively), i.e. the difference in emissions has been corrected by an updated distribution of emissions over the whole country.

Task 1.5: European heat flux inventory (lead: KCL, TNO)

Two anthropogenic heat flux models have been developed. One for the megacity of London (Iamarino et al. 2011) and one for all urban areas globally (Allen et al. 2011). The Large scale Urban Consumption of energY model (LUCY) simulates all components of anthropogenic heat flux (QF) from the global to individual city scale at 0.25 x 0.25 arc-minute resolution. This includes a database of different working patterns and public holidays, vehicle use and energy consumption in each country. The databases can be edited to include specific diurnal and seasonal vehicle and energy consumption patterns, local holidays and flows of people within a city. From LUCY, the global mean urban QF has a diurnal range of 0.7 to 3.6 W m-2, and is greater on weekdays than weekends. The heat release from building is the largest contributor (89 to 96%), to heat emissions globally. Differences between months are greatest in the middle of the day (up to 1 W m-2 at 1pm). December to February, the coldest months in the Northern Hemisphere, have the highest heat emissions. July and August are at the higher end. The least QF is emitted in May. The highest individual grid cell heat fluxes in urban areas were located in New York (577), Paris (261.5), Tokyo (178), San Francisco (173.6), Vancouver (119) and London (106.7).

Task 1.6: Validation, evaluation and improvement of EI’s (all WP partners are involved)

The most prominent insight gained from the compilation of bottom-up MC inventories and integrating them into a European emission database is the large discrepancy between spatial distribution of uncertain pollutants like NMVOC and PM. Localization of point sources and fuel use by source sector was cross-checked to improve the allocation of emissions. Furthermore a method to keep the national total reported emission in tact was developed and has been applied to make the final Del. 1.6. The work under task 1.6 thus, directly fed into D1.6 and to some extend into D1.5.

Task 1.7: Processing of emission inventories for model sensitivity and scenario (lead: TNO, MPIC)

For the European scenario modeling, emissions were provided to the MEGAPOLI modelers in



the form of a gridded database. For the scenario modeling, scaling factors have been derived from Task 1.3 per country and per source sector. This ensured consistency between the current and future scenarios, and also made it easy for the modelers to use the scenarios. The scaling factors are derived and discussed in D1.3. For the global modeling, a survey of available scenarios was made. It was decided to use the projections and scenarios developed in the framework of the IPCC 5th Assessment Report. These so-called representative concentration pathways (RCPs) are consistent with the base year emission inventory (D1.5). The same mask has been used to identify the megacity emissions in the RCP datasets, which facilitated the modeling of the impact of megacities on future air quality and climate.

Significant results: Methodologies and scientific achievements related to WP including partners’ contributions

ARIANET contributed to evaluation of megacity emissions. The availability of emission inventories for year 2005 over the Po Valley region has been verified through direct contact with Regional Environmental Agencies and Regional Authorities technical departments in charge for inventories development and distribution. The following Po Valley regions have a common project for development of emission inventories at municipal level (NUTS3 level) with a bottom-up methodology called INEMAR (http://www.arpalombardia.it/inemar/eng_inemarhome.htm): Lombardia, Piemonte, Emilia-Romagna, Veneto, Trentino-Alto Adige, and Friuli-Venezia Giulia. At the beginning of summer 2009 regional emission inventories were actually available only for the following regions: Lombardia, Piemonte, Trentino-Alto Adige, and Friuli-Venezia Giulia. For the Po Valley area not covered by the available regional inventories, WP Leaders agreed to use the Italian national emission inventory (ISPRA2005) released by the Institute for Environmental Protection and Research (http://www.isprambiente.it). The national inventory has been developed with top-down methodology and is characterized by lower space resolution, with data organised at Province level (NUTS2). The main difference between regional and national inventories is the method employed to calculate traffic emissions: COPERT III for the national inventory, and COPERT IV for the regional. The mentioned inventories have been gathered from local authorities who confirmed their willingness to collaborate with MEGAPOLI project and made data available. Regional inventories characteristics have been intercompared with national inventories and with MEGAPOLI European inventory for the area provided by TNO. Total emissions of the different chemical species showed limited differences over the whole Po Valley basin and over the Italian administrative regions, while large differences are detected focusing the comparison over highly urbanised city areas like e.g. Milan Province. The largest differences are shown by CO, SO2 and NMVOC, while other species, like NH3, NOx and PM10 show more comparable total emission values, but large differences in contributions from diverse macro-sectors. The mentioned sources of data have been integrated to produce gridded emissions at the same resolution of the European regional emissions (1/8 x 1/16 degree). Emissions have been gridded even at a higher resolution (0.0360 x 0.0511 degree, roughly equivalent to 4 x 4 km) resolution over the Po Valley regions to support air quality modelling over the whole Alpine region. Gridded emissions over the Po Valley have been released and made available to modellers within the MEGAPOLI consortium. The intensity and space distribution of gridded emissions of European and Po valley inventories have been compared. A generally lower concentration of emissions around the major sources (cities and road network) can be noticed for PM10 emission of the Po Valley inventory. This feature can be attributed to the influence of the different macro-sectors, in particular wood-burning and agriculture contribution. Emissions are more spread out around Milan conurbation, and less intense in its core with respect to the European inventory. Opposite condition is observed for Turin metropolitan area, where the local inventory provides higher emissions concentrated over the



most urbanised region. High resolution gridded emissions have been employed by ARIANET as input data for the model simulations performed within MEGAPOLI WP5 to analyse the air quality impact of megacities on the surrounding region and to verify the reciprocal influence of regional air pollution over the Po Valley area. Existing emission scenarios at national and sub-national scale in Italy have been analysed to support the compilation of Po Valley baseline emission scenarios for years 2020, 2030 and 2050 (Theloke et al., 2010). USTUTT provided to TNO regional emission data for North-Rhine Westphalia (Rhine-Ruhr area) combined with and integrated in a complete German emission map at high resolution, for all relevant sectors (SNAP level 1) and pollutants. The following data are available: • Gridded emission data in a spatial resolution of 1 x 1 min for the sectors: agriculture,

industry, transport, and small combustion plants and their mapping to SNAP level1; • Pollutants: NOx, NMVOC, PM10, PM2.5, NH3, SO2, CO, CH4 for the sectors: industry,

transport, and small combustion plants; • Pollutants: N2O, NH3, CH4 for the sector: agriculture. USTUTT also performed the comparison between the top-down estimates and the local bottom-up emissions from the Rhine-Ruhr area which revealed large discrepancies between the two inventories. USTUTT has compiled a baseline scenario for the years 2020 and 2030 and additional a rough estimate for 2050 for the European scale. Existing information about baseline scenarios for the Mega Cities (Paris, London, Rhine-Ruhr, and Po Valley) has been evaluated in detail. For Mexico City no official projection for the future exists. Therefore, “reasonable” sensitivity studies and studying their effects have been done. Contacts to local partners in Mexico City have been established by FORTH. TNO has put a lot of effort in integrating the local emission inventories (bottom-up) with the European emission inventory (top-down) in order to construct a European-wide consistent emission inventory which contains at high resolution the local emission inventories, which keeps to the official national total emissions. The main difficulties were: • Making the local inventories consistent with regard to the European inventory: add estimates

for missing pollutants and add emission estimates for missing sectors. • Since large differences were found between local inventories and using a top-down

approach (cut-out from the European emission inventory), a lot of effort was put in the understanding of these differences. Especially in the “real” megacities (London and Paris), it was found that the emissions in the top-down approach were often a factor 2-3 larger than in the local bottom-up inventories. Apart from specific local knowledge which is not included in a European-wide inventory, also the attribution of emissions by population (used to distribute some sources over the countries) is found to result in too high emissions attributed to the cities.

• Matching the grids of the local megacity inventories and the European-wide emission inventory, because different resolutions and different projections are used in each of the inventories.

The final result is a European-wide emission inventory with nested in it the local inventories of the 4 identified megacities (London, Paris, Rhine-Ruhr and Po Valley). The emissions in the non-megacity parts of the 4 corresponding countries are adjusted in such a way that the national totals remain identical to officially reported emissions by the countries themselves. Furthermore, together with MPIC, a global emission inventory has been selected for using within the MEGAPOLI project. Since EDGAR v4 became available too late during the project, it was decided to use the IPCC AR5 scenario data for the global emission inventory. Using a megacity mask, emissions from various megacities around the world have been analysed and it was shown that per capita emissions vary greatly between the different megacities.



Together with WP1 partner MPIC, a global emission inventory has been selected for using within the MEGAPOLI project. Since EDGAR v4 became available too late during the project, it was decided to use the IPCC AR5 scenario data for the global emission inventory. Using a megacity mask, emissions from various megacities around the world have been analysed and it was shown that per capita emissions vary greatly between the different megacities. A selected set of projected emission data has been made available to the model WPs. KCL has taken two different approaches to developing the anthropogenic heat flux inventory: The anthropogenic heat emissions generated by human activities in London are analysed in detail for 2005–2008 and considered in context of long-term past and future trends (1970–2025). Emissions from buildings, road traffic and human metabolism are finely resolved in space (30 min) and time (200 m × 200 m). Software to compute and visualize the results is provided. The annual mean anthropogenic heat flux for Greater London is 10.9 W m-2 for 2005–2008, with peaks of 210 W m-2 in the Central Activity Zone (CAZ) associated with extensive service industry activities. Towards the outskirts of the city, emissions from the domestic sector and road traffic dominate. Anthropogenic heat is mostly emitted as sensible heat, with a latent heat fraction of 7.3% and a heat-to-wastewater fraction of 12%; the implications related to the use of evaporative cooling towers are briefly addressed. Projections indicate a further increase of heat emissions within the CAZ in the next two decades related to further intensification of activities within this area. Details are provided in Iamarino et al. (2011). The Large scale Urban Consumption of energY model (LUCY) simulates all components of anthropogenic heat flux (QF) from the global to individual city scale at 2.5 x2.5 arc-minute resolution. This includes a database of different working patterns and public holidays, vehicle use and energy consumption in each country. The databases can be edited to include specific diurnal and seasonal vehicle and energy consumption patterns, local holidays and flows of people within a city. The results show that QF varied widely through the year, through the day, between countries and urban areas. An assessment of the heat emissions estimated revealed that they are reasonably close to those produced by a global model and a number of small-scale city models, so results from LUCY can be used with a degree of confidence. From LUCY, the global mean urban QF has a diurnal range of 0.7 to 3.6 W m-2, and is greater on weekdays than weekends. The heat release from building is the largest contributor (89 to 96%), to heat emissions globally. Differences between months are greatest in the middle of the day (up to 1 W m-2 at 1pm). December to February, the coldest months in the Northern Hemisphere, have the highest heat emissions. July and August are at the higher end. The least QF is emitted in May. The highest individual grid cell heat fluxes in urban areas were located in New York (577), Paris (261.5), Tokyo (178), San Francisco (173.6), Vancouver (119) and London (106.7). Details are provided in Allen et al. (2010). FMI contribution to Task 1.1: Fire Assimilation System, v.1.1 is operational with improved spatial and temporal aggregation of multi-source fire information by FMI. Global inventories of fire emissions have been generated for the time period of 24 Feb 2000 – 31 Dec 2008 using 0.25 x 0.25 degree grid resolution. European fire emissions have been generated with finer, 0.1 x 0.1 degree resolution. The major European fire episodes in 2006 were examined using both chemically speciated size-resolved aerosol measurements and dispersion model computations (Saarnio et al., 2010). Sea salt emission model of the FMI has been improved and evaluated against experimental data. The sea salt emission model and its evaluation in combination with the dispersion model SILAM against experimental data were documented in details. Birch pollen emission and dispersion modeling has been refined, using data in the Baltic countries and their environment (Veriankaite et al., 2010). Contribution to Task 1.4: SILAM model has been refined in terms of chemical composition module (CB-4 mechanism has been implemented). Although not connected to any specific task of MEGAPOLI, a new method of estimating the emissions of marine transport sector was



introduced. The new ship emission model will be applied to Istanbul region to study the air quality effects of marine traffic to Bosporus strait area, in collaboration with DMI, KNMI, TNO and the Istanbul Technical University. MPI processed the global base year (2005) emission dataset as well as the projected RCP data. Also, MPIC has developed a megacities mask for WP1, which has been disseminated and used in other WPs (see, e.g. WP6, Deliverable 6.2). In collaboration with Cambridge University and TNO, a comparison was made between applying a 1x1 degree megacity mask compared to a high-resolution (0.5 x 0.5 degree) mask. The latter gave a more accurate representation and the results were made available to the global modellers within MEGAPOLI. The results are described in more detail in D1.5. DMI participated in methodological aspects of megacities emission database building and coordination of this work with groups responsible for specific megacities emission data downscaling (e.g. for Istanbul, Moscow, Po Valley, Paris, etc.).

Socio-economic relevance and policy implications Contacts have been maintained with Po Valley area Regional Environmental Protection Agencies, whom expressed their interest for emission data exchange with neighbouring countries and for the MEGAPOLI European inventory. The Po Valley inventory has been provided to Emilia-Romagna Region Environmental Protection Agency (ARPA) to be used within FP7 MACC project. The European scale inventory has been used to update the national scale air quality forecast system QualeAria (http://aria-net.eu/QualeAria) mantained by ARIANET. A meeting with Airparif (the emission and air quality authority in Paris) has been organised where the MEGAPOLI project has been presented and a first comparison between bottom-up (Airparif) and top-down (MEGAPOLI) inventories has been made. Through the established collaboration an access to local (Ile de France) spatial planning institutes necessary for scenario development may result. In general there is great interest at local emission authorities to better understand the discrepancies between local, national and European emission estimates. The differences found between local, national and European emission estimates highlighted the need of periodic intercomparison, harmonisation and integration of emission inventories produced at different levels: member states national top-down inventories, sub-national regions and local bottom-up inventories. The integration performed within MEGAPOLI should be updated periodically, on a regular basis. This activity would be desirable to better quantify the different cities and regions contribution to European emissions and of great importance to improve air quality modelling performances. MEGAPOLI WP1 showed that emission inventories are not consistent across scales. Many are not surprised by this statement but it is now quantified, more extreme than expected and supported by the facts. For important health relevant pollutants like PM the discrepancy between down-scaled and bottom-up inventories for major cities can be up to a factor of 3-4. This has important consequences for assessing the urban increment in pollution, related exposure calculations, policy advice on sources to be most prominently mitigated and expected impacts of emission reductions. It is expected that this work will be used as an example in policy supporting bodies like FAIRMODE (especially WG3 urban scale emissions) and a possible new CITYDELTA initiative.

Discussion and conclusion WP1 has performed all its tasks in the projects, including the finalisation of the deliverables. The WP delivered its outputs for the other WPs in the MEGAPOLI project, although significant



differences were found between top-down and bottom-up estimates of emissions, when zooming in to the megacity level. In summary the conclusions of WP1 concerning European air pollutant emissions at regional and urban scales are: • Regional scale emission inventories distributed according to the state-of-the-art proxy maps

may deviate significantly from bottom-up inventories made at the megacity level. This is especially the case for more uncertain pollutants like NMVOC and PM.

• Major discrepancies are observed for residential combustion and industry sectors. In general the megacity inventories have more detailed information on the actual fuel use and fuel split used by its inhabitants whereas the regional and/or national data follow more average splits assigning all inhabitants of a particular country a similar fuel split.

• Some sources are not or only partly represented in the bottom-up inventories because they appear of less importance for city policies.

• The regional scale inventory is consistent with national total emission reporting, therefore, if corrected MC emissions are incorporated into the final regional emission map, the “missing” emission should be allocated to the remaining national domain to keep consistent national totals.

• The smaller the geographic domain of the MC compared to the country, the larger the discrepancy. Hence, difference between local MC vs. regional emission estimate is most prominent for London / Paris -> Rhine-Ruhr -> Po Valley.

• The best solution for the redistribution of emissions differs per megacity. • The local inventories have been merged with the European inventory and the final product

has been successfully used by the regional modellers in MEGAPOLI. A novel product of WP1 is the anthropogenic heat flux inventory which is available at the city level (London) and European and global scale. It is expected that such a product can be especially useful when a further integration of climate and air quality issues will ask for consistent data sets of all relevant parameters. If in the future a coupling between heat flux and air emissions inventories is made, scenarios could be developed that optimize air pollution reduction as well as heat flux. WP1 defined and identified the global MC emissions in available global gridded emission data for the base year 2005 as well as for the four alternative RCP (“Representative Concentration pathway”) emissions scenarios. . This WP1 product was successfully used in the MP model WPs to study and quantify the impact of the megacities of the world on air quality e.g. global tropospheric ozone, and the extent to which megacities are influenced by transported air pollution. It was shown that the different downscaling methodologies used to produce the gridded emissions datasets from the larger aggregated regions used in the generation of the RCPs scenarios differed between the RCPs. This artefact may influence the analysis of MC impact when comparing the results of the various future projections because the assumptions made when downscaling the emissions scenarios onto the grids can have a large influence on these results. Future work should concentrate on the creation of spatially explicit scenarios of urban development for use in global chemical transport models. Despite these shortcomings interesting patterns in the per capita emissions from MCs across continents were observed suggesting a large potential to improve local air quality by reducing emission from residential combustion (heating, cooking) especially in Africa and Asia.

List of WP reports, publications, presentations Allen L, F Lindberg, CSB Grimmond (2010) Global to city scale model for anthropogenic heat flux,

International Journal of Climatology doi: 10.1002/joc.2210 Allen L., S Beevers, F Lindberg, Mario Iamarino, N Kitiwiroon, CSB Grimmond (2010): Global to City

Scale Urban Anthropogenic Heat Flux: Model and Variability. Deliverable 1.4, MEGAPOLI Scientific Report 10-01, MEGAPOLI-04-REP-2010-03, 87p, ISBN: 978-87-992924-4-8; http://megapoli.dmi.dk/publ/MEGAPOLI_sr09-03.pdf



Butler T., H.A.C. Denier van der Gon, J. Kuenen (2011): The Base Year (2005) Global Gridded Emission Inventory used in the EU FP7 Project MEGAPOLI (Final Version). Deliverable D1.5, MEGAPOLI Scientific Report 11-02, MEGAPOLI-28-REP-2011-01, 27p, 978-87-92731-06-7. http://megapoli.dmi.dk/publ/MEGAPOLI_sr11-02.pdf

Butler, Tim, Hugo Denier van der Gon , Maria Russo , Zadie Stock,and Mark Lawrence,Emission Scenarios for Global Megacity Impact Studies, European Geosciences Union, General Assembly 2011 Vienna | Austria | 03 – 08 April 2011

Denier van der Gon H., Kuenen J., Visschedijk A., Finardi S., Radice P., D’Allura A., Beevers S., Theloke J., Uzbasic M., Honoré C. and Perrussel O. (2010) Discrepancies between top-down and bottom–up emission inventories of Megacities- The causes and relevance for modeling concentrations and exposure. Proc. of the 31st NATO/SPS ITM on Air Pollution Modelling and its Application, 27 Sept - 01 Oct, 2010, Torino, Italy.

Denier van der Gon H.A.C., A.J.H. Visschedijk, H. van der Brugh, R. Droge, J. Kuenen (2009): A base year (2005) MEGAPOLI European gridded emission inventory (1st version). Deliverable 1.2, MEGAPOLI Scientific Report 09-02, MEGAPOLI-02-REP-2009-10, 17p.

Denier van der Gon H.A.C., J. Kuenen, T. Butler (2010): A Base Year (2005) MEGAPOLI Global Gridded Emission Inventory (1st Version). Deliverable D1.1, MEGAPOLI Scientific Report 10-13, MEGAPOLI-16-REP-2010-06, 20p, ISBN: 978-87-993898-5-8

Denier van der Gon HAC, S, Beevers, Al. D’Allura, S. Finardi, C. Honore´, J. Kuenen, O. Perrussel, P. Radice, J. Theloke, M. Uzbasich, and A. Visschedijk Discrepancies Between Top-Down and Bottom-Up Emission Inventories of Megacities: The Causes and Relevance for Modeling Concentrations and Exposure In: D.G. Steyn and S.T. Castelli (eds.), NATO Science for Peace and Security Series C: Environmental Security, Vol. 4, Springer, ISBN 978-94-007-1358-1 772 p., 2011

Denier van der Gon, H., A. Visschedijk, R. Droge, H. vd Brugh, M. Schaap, 2009b European Emissions of PM2.5 and its precursors International Workshop Measurements and Modelling of PM2.5 in Europe, Bilthoven, The Netherlands 23-24 April 2009.

Denier van der Gon, HAC – MEGAPOLI global, European and city-scale emission inventories : key findings and lessons learned (WP 1 overview)(Final Symposium of the EU FP7 project MEGAPOLI Megacities: Emissions, urban, regional and Global Atmospheric POLlution and climate effects, and Integrated tools for assessment and mitigation, 26-28 September 2011, CNRS Headquarters, Paris

Denier van der Gon, HAC and the MEGAPOLI EMISSIONS Team, Comparison and analysis of European, national and local bottom-up emission inventories for European Megacities, European Geosciences Union, General Assembly 2011 Vienna | Austria | 03 – 08 April 2011

Denier van der Gon, HAC, AJH Visschedijk, H. van der Brugh, R. Dröge, J. Kuenen (2009): A base year (2005) MEGAPOLI European gridded emission inventory (1st version). Deliverable 1.2, MEGAPOLI Scientific Report 09-02, 17p, MEGAPOLI-02-REP-2009-10, ISBN: 978-87-992924-2-4; http://megapoli.dmi.dk/publ/MEGAPOLI_sr09-02.pdf

Iamarino M., Beevers S., C.S.B. Grimmond (2011) High Resolution (Space, Time) Anthropogenic Heat Emissions: London 1970-2025 International Journal of Climatology DOI: 10.1002/joc.2390

Jalkanen J.-P., Brink A., Kalli J., Pettersson H., Kukkonen J. and Stipa T., 2009. A modelling system for the exhaust emissions of marine traffic and its application in the Baltic Sea area. Atmos. Chem. Phys., 9, 9209-9223.

Kuenen J., H. Denier van der Gon, A. Visschedijk, H. van der Brugh, S. Finardi, P. Radice, A. d’Allura, S. Beevers, J. Theloke, M. Uz-basich, C. Honoré, O. Perrussel (2010): A Base Year (2005) MEGAPOLI European Gridded Emission Inventory (Final Version). Deliverable D1.6, MEGAPOLI Scientific Report 10-17, MEGAPOLI-20-REP-2010-10, 37p, ISBN: 978-87-993898-8-9 http://megapoli.dmi.dk/publ/MEGAPOLI_sr10-17.pdf

Petetin H., M. Beekmann, V. Michoud, A. Colomb, A. Schwarzenboeck, H. Denier van der Gon, C. Honore, A. Wiedensohler, Evaluating NOy and BC emissions inventories for the Paris region from MEGAPOLI aircraft measurements, European Geosciences Union, General Assembly 2011 Vienna | Austria | 03 – 08 April 2011

Prank, M., Sofiev, M., Denier van der Gon, H. A. C., Kaasik, M., Ruuskanen, T. M., and Kukkonen, J.: A refinement of the emission data for Kola Peninsula based on inverse dispersion modelling, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 10, 10849-10865, 2010, doi:10.5194/acp-10-10849-2010

Saarnio, Karri; Minna Aurela; Hilkka Timonen; Sanna Saarikoski; Kimmo Teinilä; Timo Mäkelä; Mikhail Sofiev; Jarkko Koskinen; Pasi P Aalto; Markku Kulmala; Jaakko Kukkonen and Risto Hillamo, 2010.



Fine particles in fresh smoke plumes from boreal forest-fires, Science of the Total Environment, 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2010.03.010, in press.

Sofiev, M., R. Vankevich, M. Lotjonen, M. Prank, V. Petukhov, T. Ermakova, J. Koskinen and J. Kukkonen, 2009. An operational system for the assimilation of satellite information on wild-land fires for the needs of air quality modelling and forecasting, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 9, 6833–6847.

Theloke J., M.Blesl, D. Bruchhof, T.Kampffmeyer, U. Kugler, M. Uzbasich, K. Schenk, H. Denier van der Gon, S. Finardi, P. Radice, R. S. Sokhi, K. Ravindra, S. Beevers, S. Grimmond, I. Coll, R. Frie-drich, D. van den Hout (2010): European and megacity baseline scenarios for 2020, 2030 and 2050. Deliverable D1.3, MEGAPOLI Scientific Report 10-23, MEGAPOLI-26-REP-2010-12, 57p, ISBN: 978-87-92731-04-3; http://megapoli.dmi.dk/publ/MEGAPOLI_sr10-23.pdf

Veriankaitė L., P. Siljamo, M. Sofiev, I. Šaulienė and J. Kukkonen, 2010. Modelling analysis of source regions of long-range transported birch pollen that influences allergenic seasons in Lithuania, Aerobiologia, International Journal of Aerobiology, Vol. 26, Number 1, 47–62.



3.2. WP2: Megacity environments: features, processes and effects Coordinated by S. Grimmond (KCL) and I. Esau (NERSC) MEGAPOLI Partners involved: DMI, AUTH, FMI, JRC, KCL, NERSC, NILU, UHam, UHel

Summary of progress toward objectives Following objective O2.1 (To develop morphology/land-use/land-cover classifications and databases for megacities to be used in meteorological, air quality and population exposure modelling) - a prototype of an urban morphological database has been developed (Sievinen et al., 2009) and made available for the project participants. The database relies on digital maps and satellite observations including optical images, SAR interferometry, and digital maps. A fine resolution model was compiled regarding urban morphological features that cover a rectangular area of 6 x 3 km2 in central Paris. The model contains selected thematic layer types on water, parks, trees, streets, buildings, average height of blocks, digital elevation model of the terrain, coherence and the urban heat fluxes. Following objective O2.2 (To develop sub-grid parameterisations of urban layer processes for megacity, regional and global scale models) - the work proceeds with different approaches to include urban canopy effects, dispersion, and large-scale turbulence self-organization and stability effects on air flow. Urban canopy effects are aggregated in simple parameters, primarily urban roughness. Aggregation and transport of dispersion is studied with CFD, LES, and Enviro-HIRLAM models. Different approaches are tried to account for the small-scale, unresolved fluxes.

Summary details for each relevant WP deliverables and tasks

Deliverable 2.4.2 - Urbanized turbulence-resolving model and evaluation against WP3 Paris plume data. Turbulence-resolving simulations have been conducted for the central Paris area using high-resolution urban surface morphology database (D2.1) with the resolution as fine as 20 m. These results are the most detailed urban simulations for any large city in the world obtained to date. The simulations revealed the modification of the urban boundary layer caused by the realistic array of the surface roughness elements. The simulations have been used to improve the urban parametrization (D2.5).

Esau I. (2011): Improved Urban Parameterizations Based on Prognostic Equations, Utilizing LES Results. Deliverable D2.4.2. MEGAPOLI Scientific Report 11-15, MEGAPOLI-41-REP-2011-09, 49p, ISBN: 978-87-92731-19-7 http://megapoli.dmi.dk/publ/MEGAPOLI_sr11-15.pdf

Deliverable 2.5 - Improved urban parameterizations based on prognostic equations, utilizing LES results Turbulence-resolving simulations (D2.4) provide the variability of the meteorological quantities in the urban boundary layer that corresponds to the typical synoptic situation and specific surface morphology of the central Paris area. Thus, a statistical method to aggregate the consist set of both the surface and the meteorological parameters was developed. This approach allows not only testing the ad hoc assumptions and tuning of the parameters but also provides guidance to the optimal parametrization depending on the most influential surface morphology parameters.



Esau I., Baklanov A., Zilitinkevich S. (2011): Improved Urban Parameterizations Based on Prog-nostic Equations, Utilizing LES Results. Deliverable D2.5 MEGAPOLI Scientific Report 11-14, MEGAPOLI-40-REP-2011-09, 61p, ISBN: 978-87-92731-18-0 http://megapoli.dmi.dk/publ/MEGAPOLI_sr11-14.pdf

Deliverable 2.6 - Evaluation of sub-grid models with interactions between turbulence and urban chemistry; recommendations for emission inventories improvement The results summarize the necessity of producing not only detailed emission inventories but also to develop methodologies that would allow state of the art models to use the detailed information. A contrast is often noticed between the details in emission spatial and temporal distribution and the necessity of models to reduce that information to a value representing the emission in the numerical grid cell. Galmarini S., Vinuesa J.F., Cassiani M., Denby B., Martilli A., (2011): Evaluation of Sub-Grid Models with Interactions between Turbulence and Urban Chemistry. Recommendations for Emission Inventories Improvement. Deliverable D2.6, MEGAPOLI Scientific Report 11-01, MEGAPOLI-27-REP-2011-01, 41p, ISBN: 978-87-92731-05-0 http://megapoli.dmi.dk/publ/MEGAPOLI_sr11-01.pdf

Deliverable 2.7 - Improved parameterization of dispersion due to sub-grid heterogeneities in

emission for different scale models (LES, mesoscale, regional and global) The two models developed in this context are viable techniques that could be applied to real case studies also. The comparison with LES models shows that the simplified parametrizations developed are able to reproduce the same results obtained with sophisticated turbulence-resolving techniques. One of the two methodologies (Cassiani et al.; 2010) is completely new in the field of air quality and the first examples of this kind.

Galmarini S., J.F. Vinuesa, M. Cassiani (2011): Improved Parameterization of Dispersion due to Sub-grid Heterogeneities in Emission for Different Scale Models. Deliverable D2.7, MEGAPOLI Scientific Report 11-19, MEGAPOLI-45-REP-2011-09, 16p, ISBN: 978-87-92731-23-4 http://megapoli.dmi.dk/publ/MEGAPOLI_sr11-01.pdf

Tasks 2.3-2.5 have continued and were finalised during the 3rd year.

Task 2.3: Urban energy balance (lead: KCL, UHam) Comparison of urban energy balance models off-line has been conducted with two datasets. Just underAbout 30 different models are participateding. Initial results fromanalysis has been conducted for the first data set and a paper submitted Phase 1 have been published (Grimmond et al. 201009, JAMC submitted). Results from Phase 2, the main data set for the analyses, have been published in Grimmond et al. (2011). In addition a number of invited talks have been given in a number of countries (e.g. Japan, China, USA, etc). For the second data set a conference presentation and preprint have been prepared (Grimmond et al. 2009, ICUC7, & 2 invited talks). This work has resulted in the development of a model classification scheme (Grimmond et al. 2010, 2011009, JAMC submitted). This is now being used as a basis for evaluating the model performance (Grimmond et al. 2010, 201109, JAMC, ICUC7). The comparative study of the combined effects of urban features and air pollution (aerosols) from megacities on meteorology and environment at different scales using online coupled Enviro-HIRLAM model with 2-way feedbacks on the example of Paris was completed in DMI. UHam team evaluated effect of anthropogenic heat emissions on urban heat island. Anthropogenic heat emissions were calculated for the Hamburg Metropolitan area (Germany), employing a resolution of 250 m and distinguishing heat emissions of, e.g. residential, commercial, industrial and traffic origin. For each category an individual time function was used that considers the annual, weekly and daily



cycle. The anthropogenic heat emissions are considered in an urban heat island study performed with the non-hydrostatic mesoscale model METRAS for a low wind clear summer day. The results show that due to anthropogenic heat the urban area is 0.5 K warmer, locally up to more than 1 K warmer. The impact of anthropogenic heat on the temperature is most pronounced at night-time (Grawe et al., 2011). It should be noted that effects of urban anthropogenic heat emissions interact with the meteorological structure outside the city boundaries – urban area impacts are clearly of multi-scale structure and not confined to the city boundaries.

Task 2.4: Urban atmospheric boundary layer (UABL) (lead: NERSC, AUTH) Turbulence-resolving simulations have been conducted for the central Paris area using high-resolution urban surface morphology database (D2.1) with the resolution as fine as 20 m. These results are the most detailed urban simulations for any large city in the world obtained to date. The simulations revealed the modification of the urban boundary layer caused by the realistic array of the surface roughness elements. The simulations have been used to improve the urban parametrization (D2.5). Using the surface morphology database from Task 2.1, turbulence-resolving simulations with the urbanized code PALM were conducted on a set of meshes with resolution from 1 m to 50 m. The primary experiment was run on the 50 m mesh for the entire central Paris area (12 km by 10 km). It was demonstrated that the buildings (urban canopy) considerably modify the vertical mixing properties in the turbulent flow even in the case of the large elevation differences of the unlaying terrain. It was found, and it is now confirmed with 4 independent LES codes, that the turbulence is organized in the sheared flow with the maximum organization found for easterlies. The mere self-organization (and therefore wind direction) may change the mixing in the planetary boundary layer (PBL) by factor of 2 with increasing effect over more rough surfaces. The climatologic impact of the PBL is discussed in Zilitinkevich and Esau (2009). The obtained LES data were used to constrain the urban parameterizations in large scale meteorological models. The empirical relationship on the dependence between the mean building height and the parameters of the surface layer parameterization were confirmed. The maps of the aggregated parameters for the Paris were computed. The improvement of urbanization of the LES codes was continued. A more flexible and accurate method (the Breugem–Boersma immersed boundary stress method) is also under implementation.

Task 2.5: Megacity dispersion features (lead: JRC, AUTH, NILU)

JRC team contributed to identification of the relevance of SGS emission variability including (i) estimation of the impact of SGS emission variability on air concentration; (ii) development of two approaches to model the process (one second order closure model and one full stochastic filed model; (iii) evaluation (excellent) of performance of the two models when compared with LES. NERSC is solving the problem of data assimilation on turbulence scales. This is the problem of the turbulent fields’ recovery using the mean (observed) values of the meteorological parameters. The assimilation nudging routine is ready. Results of the relevant MUST wind tunnel experiment for dispersion of air pollution from fixed releases in idealized urban roughness set ups are analyzed by DMI and AUTH. AUTH’s RANS CFD code for urban dispersion problems, MIMO, were run for two small areas of 500 x 500 m in the city of Athens (the shore of Piraeus and Patision and Fokionos Negri streets in downtown Athens), within the frame of the joint project with the Toyhashi University in Japan, MEMICO, as MEsocale – MIcroscale - COupling.


FMI contributed the morphology database for central Paris. NERSC contributed with urbanization of PALM and LESNIC LES models. This database has been used to run turbulence-resolving LES experiments and to obtain the urban boundary layer



properties on 10 m to 50 m resolution. The LES data have been aggregated on coarser, meteorological mesh of 1 km resolution to map the parameters for UBL closures specific for the Paris area. NERSC demonstrated feasibility of the data assimilation in the LES models over partially unresolved urban canopy. To further quantify the effect of resolution, a set of LES runs with resolutions from 1 m to 100 m have been computed. UHel and FMI formulated the total turbulence energy theory as the foundation for the improved roughness and urban effects parameterizations. AUTH completed studies with CFD code for segments of Athens. KCL organized intercomparison study for the urban canopy schemes. DMI realised the new development nesting in the micro- to meso-scale model Enviro-HIRLAM+M2UE.

Discussion and conclusion The morphology database has been released. It makes possible to go from idealized case studies to the realistic simulations for the top megacity in the project – Paris. The main focus is now on feasibility studies, aggregation methods and calibration of the proposed parameterizations and approaches to deal with (i) urban canopy, (ii) urban effects and (iii) micro-climate impact of the urban boundary layer modification. The completed intercomparison of the urban schemes will provide frameworks to judge the development. The simpler (delta) and more complicated (pdf) approaches to the dispersion problem are to be tried and validated against LES.

List of WP reports, publications, presentations Publications: Baklanov A., B. Grisogono, R. Bornstein, L. Mahrt, S. Zilitinkevich, P. Taylor, S.E. Larsen, M.W. Rotach,

H. J. S. Fernando, 2010: The Nature, Theory, and Modeling of Atmospheric Planetary Boundary Layers. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 92(2011), 123–128. doi: 10.1175/2010BAMS2797.1

Baklanov A, J Ching, CSB Grimmond, A Martilli, (2009), Summaries of Discussions, Recommendations and Requirements. Meteorological and Air Quality Models for Urban Areas, (eds) Baklanov A, S Grimmond, A Mahura, M Athanassiadou. Springer-Verlag, ISBN: 978-3-642-00297-7, 151-162

Baklanov A., P. Mestayer, A. Clappier, S. Zilitinkevich, S. Joffre, A. Mahura, N.W. Nielsen, (2008), Towards improving the simulation of meteorological fields in urban areas through updated/advanced surface fluxes description, Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, vol. 8, pp. 523-543

Baklanov A. A. and R. B. Nuterman (2009): Multi-scale atmospheric environment modelling for urban areas. Adv. Sci. Res., 3, 53-57.

Baklanov, A., S. Grimmond, A. Mahura, M. Athanassiadou, 2009: Meteorological and Air Quality Models for Urban Areas. Springer, 2009, 140 p.

Cassiani, M., J. F. Vinuesa, S. Galmarini, and B. Denby, (2009), Stochastic fields method for sub-grid scale emission heterogeneity in mesoscale atmospheric dispersion models, Atmos. Chem. Phys. Discuss., 9, 15215-15245

Esau, I. (2009): Numerical experiments with assimilation of the mean and unresolved meteorological conditions into large-eddy simulation model, submitted to Advances in Meteorology

Esau, I. (2009): Large-eddy simulations of geophysical turbulent flows with applications to planetary boundary layer research, arXiv:0907.0103v1

Esau, I., (2009): Large-eddy simulation experiments with nudging to observed mean meteorological profiles, MEGAPOLI Newsletters, n3, p.9, MEGAPOLI-NL03-09-06.

Esau, I., (2009): The question of scale: Large Eddy Simulation in urban research, MEGAPOLI Newsletters, n3, p.7, MEGAPOLI-NL03-09-06.

Gavrilova Yu., A. Mahura, S. Smyshlayev, A. Baklanov (2009): Thermal and Dynamical Urban Effects of Saint-Petersburg Metropolitan Area – Winter Case Study. Abstracts of the International Conference on Computational Information Technologies for Environmental Sciences: CITES-2009, 11-15 Jul 2009, Krasnoyarsk, Russia, pp. 63-64.



Gavrilova Yu., A. Mahura, S. Smyshlayev, A. Baklanov (2009): Thermal and Dynamical Urban Effects of Saint-Petersburg Metropolitan Area. MEGAPOLI Newsletters, n4, p.5, MEGAPOLI-NL04-09-09.

Grawe D., Bungert U., Schlünzen K.H. (2011): Modelling the urban heat island of Hamburg considering anthropogenic heat release. 11th EMS Annual Meeting, EMS2011-689, 12.-16. September 2011, Berlin, Germany.

Grimmond CSB, M Best, J Barlow and AJ Arnfield J-J Baik, Baklanov A, S Belcher, M Bruse, I Calmet, F Chen, P Clark, A Dandou, E Erell, K Fortuniak, R Hamdi, M Kanda, T Kawai, H Kondo, S Krayenhoff, SH Lee, S-B Limor, A Martilli, V Masson, S Miao, G Mills, R Moriwaki, K Oleson, A Porson, U Sievers, M Tombrou, J Voogt, T Williamson, (2009), Urban surface energy balance models: model characteristics and methodology for a comparison study. Meteorological and Air Quality Models for Urban Areas, (eds) Baklanov A, CSB Grimmond, A Mahura, M Athanassiadou. Springer-Verlag, ISBN: 978-3-642-00297-7, 97-123.

Grimmond CSB, M Blackett, M Best, J Barlow, JJ Baik, S Belcher, SI Bohnenstengel, I Calmet, F Chen, A Dandou, K Fortuniak, ML Gouvea, R Hamdi, M Hendry, T Kawai, Y Kawamoto, H Kondo, ES Krayenhoff, SH Lee, T Loridan, A Martilli, V Masson, S Miao, K Oleson, G Pigeon, A Porson, YH Ryu, F Salamanca, GJ Steeneveld, M Tombrou, J Voogt, D Young, N Zhang (2010) The International Urban Energy Balance Models Comparison Project: First results from Phase 1 Journal of Applied Meteorology & Climatology, 49, 1268-92, doi: 10.1175/2010JAMC2354.1

Grimmond CSB, M Blackett, MJ Best, J-J Baik, SE Belcher, J Beringer, SI Bohnenstengel, I Calmet, F Chen, A Coutts, A Dandou, K Fortuniak, ML Gouvea, R Hamdi, M Hendry, M Kanda, T Kawai, Y Kawamoto, H Kondo, ES Krayenhoff, S-H Lee, T Loridan, A Martilli, V Masson S Miao, K Oleson, R Ooka, G Pigeon, A Porson, Y-H Ryu, F Salamanca, G-J Steeneveld, M Tombrou, JA Voogt, D Young, N Zhang Initial Results from Phase 2 of the International Urban Energy Balance Comparison Project, International Journal of Climatology 31, 244-272 doi: 10.1002/joc.2227

Hidalgo, J., V. Masson, A. Baklanov, G. Pigeon, and L. Gimeno. Advances in Urban Climate Modeling. Trends and Directions in Climate Research: Ann. N.Y. Acad. Sci. 1146: 354-374 (2008). doi: 10.1196/annals.1446.015

Mahura A., C. Petersen, A. Baklanov, B. Amstrup, U. S. Korsholm, K. Sattler, (2008), Verification of longterm DMI-HIRLAM NWP model runs using urbanisation and builing effect parameterization modules, HIRLAM Newsletter, vol. no.53, no. 11pp,

Mahura A., Leroyer S., Baklanov A., Mestayer P., Korsholm U.S., Calmet I., (2009): Temporal and Spatial Variability of Fluxes in Urbanized Areas, pp-219-232; In “Urban Climate and Bioclimate”, (Eds. Klysik K., Wibig J., Fortuniak K.), ISBN: 978-83-7525-243-9.

Mahura A., Petersen C., Baklanov A., Amstrup B., (2009): Evaluation of Building Effect Parameterization Module for Urbanized Numerical Weather Prediction Modelling, pp-371-380; In “Urban Climate and Bioclimate”, (Eds. Klysik K., Wibig J., Fortuniak K.), ISBN: 978-83-7525-243-9.

Mahura A., Baklanov A., Petersen C., N. W. Nielsen, B. Amstrup (2009): Verification and Case Studies for Urban effects in HIRLAM Numerical Weather Prediction, pp. 143-150. In “Urbanization of Meteorological and Air Quality Models”, (Eds. Baklanov A., S. Grimmond, A. Mahura, M. Athanassiadou), ISBN: 978-3-642-00297-7.

Mahura A., Baklanov A., Hoe S., J.H. Sorensen, C. Petersen (2009): Changes in Meteorological and Atmospheric Transport and Deposition Patterns due to Influence of Metropolitan Areas. Ukrainian Hydrometeorological Journal, Vol. 4, pp. 187-194.

Mahura A., S. Leroyer, P. Mestayer, A. Baklanov, C. Petersen (2009): Urbanization in Atmospheric Modelling with High Spatial and Temporal Resolution. Abstracts of the International Conference on Computational Information Technologies for Environmental Sciences: CITES-2009, 11-15 Jul 2009, Krasnoyarsk, Russia, pp. 64-65.

Nuterman R.B., Starchenko A.V., Baklanov A.A., (2007), Development and analysis of microscale meteorological model for airflow investigation in urban canopy. J. of Computational Technologies, Vol. 13, Special issue 3, P. 37-43.

Nuterman R., Starchenko A., Baklanov A., (2010), Numerical model of urban aerodynamics and pollution dispersion. Accepted for publication in Int. J. of Environment and Pollution, 8 p.

Nuterman, A.A. Baklanov, A.V. Starchenko, (2009). Application of Microscale model for development of urban canopy parametrization scheme for mesoscale models. Ukrainian Hydro-meteorological Journal, No.4, P. 6 (In Press).

Nuterman R. (2008) Modelling of turbulent flows and pollution transport in urban canopy. PhD thesis, 156 p.



Zilitinkevich, S.S., I. Mammarella, A.A. Baklanov, S.M. Joffre (2008): The Effect of Stratification on the Aerodynamic Roughness Length and Displacement Height. Boundary-Layer Meteor, 129: 179-190. DOI:10.1007/s10546-008-9307-9.

Zilitinkevich, S.S., T. Elperin, N. Kleeorin, I. Rogachevskii and I. Esau, (2009): An energetically balanced turbulence closure for stably and very stably stratified flows Symposium on Multiphase Flow in Atmospheric Boundary Layer: Wind Erosion, Dust Storms, Sand Saltation, Snow Drift, Lanzhou, China, October 16-18

Zilitinkevich, S.S., and Esau, I., (2009): Planetary boundary layer feedbacks in climate system and triggering global warming in the night, in winter and at high latitudes, submitted in Geography, Environment and Sustainability

Presentations: Blackett M, ML Gouvea, T Loridan, S Grimmond, (2009), Modelling Urban Surface-Atmosphere

Interactions Sustainable Urban Planning in London Meeting of the Bridge researchers and London experts, Community of Practice (CoP), London, August 24, 2009 (poster)

Esau, I., (2009): Large-eddy simulation experiments with nudging to observed mean meteorological profiles, EGU General Assembly, 19-24 April, Vienna, Geophysical Research Abstracts,11, EGU2009-1501

Esau, I., (2009): Physical mechanism and quantitative assessment of the planetary boundary layer feedback in the climate system, The IARU International Scientific Congress on Climate Change, March 10-12, Copenhagen, DK

Grimmond CSB (2009) Urban surface-atmosphere exchanges: results from modelling and measurements, Institute of Industrial Science, The U Tokyo, Japan, 17 July 2009 (invited)

Grimmond CSB Comparison of modelling solar radiation & energy balances fluxes in urban areas. Solar Energy at Urban Scale, Urban Systems Engineering Department, Compiègne University of Technology, Compiègne, France, 25-26 May 2010

Grimmond CSB How well can we Model Surface - Atmosphere Exchanges in Urban Areas? June 1 2010, University of Tsukuba, Japan

Grimmond CSB How well can we Model Surface- Atmosphere Exchanges in Urban Areas? University of Birmingham, UK, April 19, 2010

Grimmond CSB Surface- Atmosphere Exchanges in Urban Areas: How well can we model these? Bi-Annual GAC (Gothenburg atmospheric science centre) Conference, Gothenberg, Sweden, 19-20 May 2010, (Keynote)

Grimmond CSB The role of urban climatology in urban policy: Can urban models inform policy & become more useful to decision-makers? The Comparative Genetics of Cities, London, 21-23 May 2010

Grimmond CSB Urban Meteorology: Scoping the problem, defining the needs (A Workshop). National Academies’ Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate (BASC), July 27-28, Woods Hole, Massachusetts, USA (keynote)

Grimmond CSB Using urban climate models for better adaptation plans: Strengths & areas for improvements. International Workshop on Urban Climate Prediction for Better Adaptation Plan, June 2-3, 2010, University of Tsukuba, Japan

Grimmond CSB, (2009) Urban surface atmosphere exchanges: Measurements and modelling, National Institute of Advanced Industrial Science and Technology (AIST), Tsukuba, Japan, 21 July 2009 (invited)

Grimmond CSB, M Blackett, M Best, JJ Baik, S Belcher, SI Bohnenstengel, I Calmet, F Chen, A Dandou, K Fortuniak, M Gouvea, R Hamdi, M Hendry, H Kondo, S Krayenhoff, SH Lee, T Loridan, A Martilli, V Masson, S Miao, K Oleson, G Pigeon, A Porson, F Salamanca, GJ Steeneveld, M Tombrou, J Voogt, N Zhang (2009), The International Urban Energy Balance Comparison Project: Initial Results from Phase 2, ICUC7 Yokohama, Japan, June 29- July 3, 2009 (A11-6, preprint)

Grimmond CSB, T Loridan The importance of vegetation on urban surface-atmosphere exchanges: Evidence from measurements and modeling, 3rd iLEAPS Science Conference, Garmisch-Partenkirchen, Germany, 18-23 September 2011

Grimmond CSB, T Loridan, M Best The importance of vegetation on urban surface-atmosphere exchanges: Evidence from measurements and modeling,International Workshop on Urban Weather and Climate: Observation and Modeling, 12-15 July, 2011, Beijing, China. (keynote)

Grimmond S, Blackett M, M Best, and the IUEBC team, (2009), First results from the International Urban Energy Balance Model Comparison: Model Complexity, EGU Vienna, Austria 19-24 April 2009 (poster)



Grimmond S, M Blackett, M Best, with Baik J, Bohnenstengel S, Calmet I, Chemel C, Chen F, Dandou A, Fortuniak K, Gouvea M, Hamdi R, Kondo H, Krayenhoff S, Lee S, Loridan T, Martilli A, Masson V, Miao S, Oleson K, Pigeon G, Porson A, Salamanca F, Shashua-Bar L, Steeveveld G, Sugar L, Trombou M, Voogt J, Zhang N, (2009), Model Complexity: First results from the international urban surface energy balance model comparison study AMS 89th Annual Meeting/ Eighth Symposium on the Urban Environment, 11–15 January 2009, Phoenix, USA

Grimmond S, M Blackett, M Best, with Baik J, Bohnenstengel S, Calmet I, Chemel C, Chen F, Dandou A, Fortuniak K, Gouvea M, Hamdi R, Kondo H, Krayenhoff S, Lee S, Loridan T, Martilli A, Masson V, Miao S, Oleson K, Pigeon G, Porson A, Salamanca F, Shashua-Bar L, Steeveveld G, Sugar L, Trombou M, Voogt J, Zhang N, (2009), An international urban surface energy balance model comparison study: first results, AMS 89th Annual Meeting/ Eighth Symposium on the Urban Environment, 11–15 January 2009, Phoenix, USA

Lawrence M, A Baklanov, S. Pandis , and the MEGAPOLI team, (2009), Megacity Pollution Effects from Urban to Global Scales: Overview of the new EC 7FP Project “MEGAPOLI, EGU Vienna, Austria 19-24 April 2009. (invited)

Sievinen P., Praks J., Hallikainen M., Koskinen J., Hellsten A., Kukkonen J. (2009), Urban morphology retrieval by means of remote sensing for the modelling of atmospheric dispersion and micro-meteorology, proceedings of the 2009 IEEE International Geoscience & Remote Sensing Symposium (IGARSS 2009), Cape Town, South Africa, July 12th - 17th.

Zilitinkevich, S., Esau, I., (2008): Atmospheric planetary boundary layer feedback in climate system and triggering of climate change at high latitudes, 8th EMS Annual Meeting and 7th European Conference on Applied Climatology (ECAC), 29 September – 03 October, Amsterdam, The Netherlands

Zilitinkevich, S.S., and I. Esau, (2009): Atmospheric planetary boundary layer feedback in climate system and triggering of climate change at high latitudes EGU General Assembly, 19-24 April, Vienna, Geophysical Research Abstracts,11, EGU2009-1496

Zilitinkevich, S.S., T. Elperin, N. Kleeorin, I. Rogachevskii, I. Esau, T. Mauritsen, M. W. Miles, (2008): Turbulence energetics in stably stratified geophysical flows: strong and weak mixing regimes, preprint available from arXiv



3.3. WP3: Megacity plume case study Coordinated by M. Beekmann (CNRS) and U. Baltensperger (PSI) MEGAPOLI Partners involved: FORTH, CNRS, PSI, UHel, IfT

Summary of progress toward objectives WP3 objectives are organised around four objectives and tasks: • O3.1: To characterize atmospheric aerosol and relevant precursors at two urban and

suburban sites in Greater Paris area; • O3.2: To provide a source apportionment of PM (separately for ultrafine particles, PM1, and

the coarse mode); • O3.3: To examine the evolution of aerosols and gas-aerosol interactions in the urban outflow

of Paris; • O3.4: To provide additional data for the evaluation of Chemical Transport Models. In order to fulfil these tasks, two intensive measurement campaigns were performed in the Ile de France region during a one-month summer and a one-month winter period (July 1 – 31, 2009 and January 15 to February 15, 2010, respectively). The campaigns aimed at better quantifying primary and secondary organic aerosol sources on the example of a big European Megacity (the Paris region), according to the WP3 objectives O3.1-O3.4. The planning, set-up and execution of the campaigns was described in the progress report for the first period. Briefly the summer campaign design included 3 primary and 7 secondary fixed ground measurement sites, an aircraft and 5 mobile platforms. Figure 3.1 shows the location of the primary and secondary ground based sites, mobile platforms and aircraft. During the winter campaign, three vans participated and performed again extensive measurements within the Paris pollution plume and in upwind conditions, sampling continental pollution advected to the region. This set-up was much bigger than initially planned and funded by the Commission, due to a large number of additional volunteering contributions by the MEGAPOLI partners and other research groups, and due to additional national funding from France and other countries. In total, more than 25 research laboratories participated (Table 3.1). The campaigns have been clearly a success, with measurement coverage above 90%. The MEGAPOLI project is very thankful and acknowledges the Laboratoire d’Hygiène de Paris (LHVP), SIRTA/IPSL, Golf de la Poudrérie à Livry-Gargan for hosting campaign sites.Without this help, the campaign would not have been possible. During the reporting period, intensive work was continued along several axes: • Campaign data have been processed and quality checked by PI’s. This was a huge work,

because data for nearly a hundred instruments that had been deployed in the field had to be treated.

• Campaign data have been analysed with respect to the projects scientific objectives, in particular to quantifying (organic) aerosol sources, and the formation of secondary (organic) aerosol from gaseous precursors.

• Campaign data have been gathered in a temporary local project data base at LISA (http://megapoli.lisa.univ-paris12.fr/ ). During the last six months this data base has then been integrated into a user friendly and long-term available data base run by the French Ether topical center (http://ether.ipsl.jussieu.fr ). After the end of the project (September 30, 2011), downloading data is possible for project members and non-members after signing a data protocol. The Ether data base will be opened during November 2011.

• Campaign data have been also used for detailed model evaluation. Chemistry-transport models have been used for budget and process studies related to the campaigns.



• Scientific results have been reported in seven Deliverables (see below). • Two campaign exploitation workshops have been organised in addition to the annual project

meetings in Paris in June 2010, hosted by LISA-CNRS, and in Villigen, Switzeland, hosted by PSI. More than 30 participants participated in each of the workshops.

• Scientific results have been disseminated at high level scientific conferences. Several peer reviewed publications have already been published, however, a great number of papers is still under preparation. A special issue for the MEGAPOLI Paris campaign has been set up in the Journal Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics.

Figure 3.1: The campaign design included 3 primary (in black) and 3 secondary (in blue) fixed ground measurement sites, an aircraft and 5 mobile platforms. Primary sites are devoted to aerosols and gas

phase chemistry, secondary sites to active and passive remote sensing. A specific lidar network was set-up during the winter campaign at a central Paris site and at 4 cardinal points (red stars).

Table 3.2: European laboratories that participated in the 2009 and 2010 Paris campaigns.

FP7 funded research laboratories: • GAME-CNRM (Météo-France/CNRS), France, • Institut für Troposphärenforschung, Leipzig, Germany, • LaMP (CNRS / Université Blaise Pascal), France, • LGGE (Université Joseph Fourier / CNRS), France, • LISA/IPSL (CNRS / Universités Paris-Est et Paris 7), France, • LSCE/IPSL (CEA / CNRS / UVSQ), France, • Paul Scherer Institute, Villingen, Switzerland, • SAFIRE (CNRS / Météo-France / CNES), France, • Université de Patras, Grece, • Université d’Helsinki, Finnland.

Additional research laboratories (or non-funded groups of funded laboratories):

ANDRA (ASL lidar network, winter), AIRPARIF, France, CEREA (Ecole des Ponts et Chaussés / EDF), France, Département Chimie & Environnement (Ecole des Mines de Douai), France, Finnish Meteorological Institute, Finland (ceilometer measurements), INERIS, France, INRA (ECG) (ASL lidar network, winter), LATMOS/IPSL (CNRS / UVSQ / UPMC), France, LCME (Université de Savoie), France, LCP-IRA (CNRS / Université de Provence), France, LEOSPHERE (ASL, lidar network, winter), Orsay, France

PARI

SIRTA

LHVP

20km

Forest

Forest Créteil

Jussieu

Livry-Gargan

Tour Eiffel, balloon



LMD/ IPSL (CNRS / ENS / Ecole Polytechnique / UPMC), France, LPMAA/IPSL, France Max-Planck Institut für Chemie à Mayance, Germany, Aerosol group and MAX-

DOAS group, Paul Scherer Institute, Villingen, Switzerland, (mobile measurements), SIRTA/ IPSL (CNRS, Ecole Polytechnique), University Essen-Duisburg, Germany (summer only). University College of Cork, Ireland (winter only)

Summary details for each relevant WP deliverables and tasks Deliverable 3.1 - Database of chemical composition, size distribution and optical parameters of

urban and suburban PM and its temporal variability (hourly to seasonal) The Deliverable gives an overview over the measurements performed at fixed ground based sites during the Megapoli Paris summer and winter campaigns. It describes the data implementation into the local MEGAPOLI Paris project campaign data base hosted at LISA. Beekmann M., Baltensperger U., and the MEGAPOLI campaign team (2010): Database of Chemical Composition, Size Distribution and Optical Parameters of Urban and Suburban PM and its Temporal Variability (Hourly to Seasonal). Deliverable D3.1, MEGAPOLI Scientific Report 10-15, MEGAPOLI-18-REP-2010-10, 21p, ISBN: 978-87-993898-6-5 http://megapoli.dmi.dk/publ/MEGAPOLI_sr10-15.pdf

Deliverable 3.2 - Source appointment of major urban aerosol components (OC, BC, inorganic

ions), including primary and secondary PM sources This Deliverable uses source apportionment techniques including Positive Matrix Formulation analysis of AMS measurements to derive major sources of urban aerosol observed during the summer and winter campaign. Sources for inorganic aerosol are derived from that of their gaseous precursors (SO2, NOx, NH3). Baltensperger U., Beekmann M., and the MEGAPOLI campaign team (2011): Source Apportion-ment of Major Urban Aerosol Components Including Primary and Secondary PM Sources. Deliverable D3.2, MEGAPOLI Scientific Report 11-05, MEGAPOLI-31-REP-2011-05, 20p, ISBN: 978-87-92731-09-8 http://megapoli.dmi.dk/publ/MEGAPOLI_sr11-05.pdf

Deliverable 3.3 - Effective emission factors for OC and BC for urban type This Deliverable describes an original method how airborne BC and NOy measurements are used to derive emission adjustment factors for BC and NOx emissions in the Paris agglomeration. Both the initial TNO and the MEGAPOLI TNO emission inventory integrating information from the AirParif local emission inventory are used. Petetin H., M. Beekmann, V. Michoud, A. Borbon, J.-F. Doussin, A. Colomb, A. Schwarzenboeck, H. Denier van der Gon, C. Honore, A. Wiedensohler, U. Baltensperger, and the MEGAPOLI Campaign Team (2011): Effective Emission Factors for OC and BC for Urban Type Emissions. Deliverable D3.3, MEGAPOLI Scientific Report 11-08, MEGAPOLI-34-REP-2011-06, 30p, ISBN: 978-87-92731-12-8 http://megapoli.dmi.dk/publ/MEGAPOLI_sr11-08.pdf

Deliverable 3.4 - Database of the impact of megacity emissions on regional scale PM levels The Deliverable gives an overview over the measurements performed on aircraft and by mobile vans during the MEGAPOLI Paris summer and winter campaigns. It describes their implementation into the local MEGAPOLI Paris campaign data base hosted at LISA. Beekmann M., Baltensperger U., and the MEGAPOLI campaign team (2010): Database of the Impact of Megacity Emissions on Regional Scale PM Levels. Deliverable D3.4, MEGAPOLI



Scientific Report 10-16, MEGAPOLI-19-REP-2010-10, 29p, ISBN: 978-87-993898-7-2 http://megapoli.dmi.dk/publ/MEGAPOLI_sr10-16.pdf

Deliverable 3.5 - Evaluation of links between secondary VOCs and secondary organic aerosols of anthropogenic and biogenic origin

This deliverable describes analysis relating different organic aerosol components (obtained from AMS measurements) to a large range of VOC measurements. VOC’s can be used as tracers for primary emissions of anthropogenic and biogenic origin, and for secondary pollutant build-up. This analysis is performed for an urban and a sub-urban site (LHVP in Paris 13 arrondissement, SIRTA / Palaiseau near the south-western edge of the agglomeration) and aircraft measurements in and around the Paris pollution plume. Borbon A., E. Freney, N. Marchand, M. Beekmann, E. Abidi, W. Ait-Helal, A. Colomb, J. Cozic, N. Locoge, S. Sauvage, K. Sellegri, B. Temine-Roussel, J. Sciare, V. Gros, J.L. Jaffrezo, U. Baltensperger, and the MEGAPOLI campaign team (2011): Evaluation of Links between Secondary VOC’s and Secondary Organic Aerosols of Anthropogenic and Biogenic Origin. Deliverable D3.5, MEGAPOLI Scientific Report 11-16, MEGAPOLI-42-REP-2011-09, 42p, ISBN: 978-87-92731-20-3


Deliverable 3.6 - Evaluation of state of the art CTMs using new experimental data sets Detailed observations obtained during the summer 2009 and winter 2010 MEGAPOLI campaign in and around the Paris agglomeration are used for the evaluation of two state-of-the-art chemical transport models (CHIMERE and PMCAMx). Aerosol and gas phase measurements obtained at three sub(urban) ground based sites and from research flights in the pollution plume during the MEGAPOLI campaigns are compared against the model predicted concentrations for the same periods. M. Beekmann, C. Fountoukis, Q.J. Zhang, S. N. Pandis, MEGAPOLI campaign team (2011): Evaluation of state-of-the-art CTMs using new experimental datasets. Deliverable D3.6, MEGAPOLI Sci. Report 11-17, MEGAPOLI-43-REP-2011-09, 27p, ISBN: 978-87-92731-21-0. http://megapoli.dmi.dk/publ/MEGAPOLI_sr11-17.pdf

Deliverable 3.7 - Implementation of improved parameterizations of BC, OC emissions and

secondary PM formation in CTMs The implementations of improved parameterizations of BC, OC emissions and secondary PM formation into three CTMs (CHIMERE, PMCAMx, and LOTOS-EUROS) are presented in this report. The effects of these implementations on model-predicted concentration fields are assessed and compared to observations for the summer 2009 and winter 2010 MEGAPOLI campaigns in and around the Paris agglomeration. Beekmann M., C. Fountoukis, R. Timmermans, Q.J. Zhang, S.N. Pandis, H.Denier van der Gon , A. Segers, C. Honoré, O. Perrussel, P. Builtjes , M. Schaap and the MEGAPOLI Campaign Team (2011): Implementation of improved parameterizations of BC, OC emissions and secondary PM formation in CTMs. Deliverable D3.7, MEGAPOLI Scientific Report 11-18, MEGAPOLI-44-REP-2011-09, 27p, ISBN: 978-87-92731-22-7. http://megapoli.dmi.dk/publ/MEGAPOLI_sr11-18.pdf

The WP3 objectives were organised along four tasks which were all successfully fulfilled. Task 3.1: Characterization of the atmospheric aerosol and relevant precursors (lead: CNRS-LSCE, contributions from PSI, IfT, FORTH, UHel, CNRS-LISA + LaMP, NERSC)

Aerosol and gaseous species measurements gathered during the summer and winter campaigns have allowed an extensive characterisation of urban aerosol and gaseous precursors. During



winter time, aerosol load was much larger than during summer time. As mentioned before the geographical coverage and detail of aerosol and gaseous precursor measurements were much beyond of what has initially been proposed in the MEGAPOLI DoW, due to many additional contributions from volunteering groups.

Task 3.2: Source apportionment of PM (lead: PSI, contributions from FORTH, CNRS, IfT, UHel) Data gathered during the summer 2009 and winter 2010 campaigns served as input for source apportionment studies. Results obtained during the summer campaign show a large secondary fraction among the organic aerosol. During winter, this part is smaller, but still significant. In addition to traffic, woodburning and cooking activities were identified as significant organic aerosol primary sources. The cooking source was identified for the first time in the Paris agglomeration (at two of the three intensive sites). The major part of secondary organic and inorganic aerosol appears to be advected from outside the agglomeration.

Task 3.3: Examination of the evolution of aerosols and gas-aerosol interactions in the urban outflow of Paris (lead CNRS-LAMP, contributions from CNRS-GAME, LGGE, and LISA, and PSI, FORTH, CNRS-LSCE, IfT, UHel for flight planning and exploitation)

Measurements made onboard the ATR-42 show significant production of secondary organic aerosol particles within the pollution plume, manifested in an increase of SOA concentrations, normalised to black carbon and primary VOC’s as a primary pollution tracer, with distance from the agglomeration. The correlation with anthropogenic VOC’s is stronger than that with biogenic ones. Combining these results with those from the urban and sub-urban sites suggests that (1) background aerosol advected to the agglomeration is mainly of biogenic origin, (2) SOA formation due to anthropogenic VOC emissions is still limited within the urban agglomeration, but becomes important within the pollution plume.

Task 3.4: Set-up of an integrated data base and use for model evaluation (lead: CNRS-LISA, contributions from UHel, FORTH, CNRS-LISA+LSCE+GAME+LGGE, PSI, IfT, NERSC)

Campaign data have been first gathered in a local data base at LISA (http://megapoli.lisa.univ-paris12.fr/ ) which has then been integrated into long-term available data base operated by the French Ether topical center (http://ether.ipsl.jussieu.fr ). Downloading data is possible for project members and for the outside community after September 30 after signing a data protocol. The Ether data base will be opened during November 2011. Improved parameterizations of BC, OC emissions and secondary PM formation have been implemented into three CTMs. The effect of these implementations on model-predicted concentration fields are assessed and compared to detailed observations obtained during the summer 2009 and winter 2010 MEGAPOLI campaign in and around the Paris agglomeration.


A first surprising result was the large regional control of fine aerosol (PM1 and M2.5). Secondary aerosol levels which constituted the major fraction of fine aerosol showed similar levels at the urban site and at two sites located on the edge of the agglomeration. For one site on the north east edge of the agglomeration, aerosol levels were higher when advected from outside the agglomeration from the north-east sector, than when arriving from south-west and having passed over the agglomeration. Source apportionnement of organic aerosol revealed a large secondary fraction among the organic aerosol during the summer campaign, and a still significant fraction during the winter campaign. For primary organic aerosol, woodburning and cooking activities were identified as



significant sources in addition to traffic. The surprising cooking source was identified for the first time in the Paris agglomeration (at two of the three intensive sites). Correlation analysis between secondary organic aerosol and VOC’s of anthropogenic and biogenic origin at urban and sub-urban sites and on aircraft in the plume suggests that (1) secondary organic aerosol (SOA) advected to the agglomeration is mainly of biogenic origin, (2) SOA formation due to fresh anthropogenic VOC emissions is still limited within the urban agglomeration, but becomes significant within the pollution plume. Significant new particle formation events were observed in the Paris area during the whole summer month of the campaign. These events were assisted by the relatively low particulate matter concentration levels and resulting low surface area during most of July 2009. A fast chemistry experiment conducted at one of the sub-urban sites showed a significant HOx radical source due to heterogeneous HONO formation during the summer month. Improved parameterizations of BC, OC emissions and secondary PM formation have been implemented into several CTMs. The effects of these implementations on model-predicted concentration fields were assessed and compared to detailed observations obtained during the summer 2009 and winter 2010 MEGAPOLI campaign in and around the Paris agglomeration. Model simulations showed an overall satisfying agreement with observations.

Socio-economic relevance and policy implications The campaign fostered a large public awareness of urban pollution problems and scientific needs and activities to tackle them. Large national and regional, but also international televisions, radios, and newspapers provided reports on the campaign (see some details in MEGAPOLI NewsLetters and public web-site). Source apportionment studies showing unexpectedly large sources of organic aerosol from wood burning (in winter) and cooking activities (in summer and winter) call for further studies characterising these contributions in urban areas. While traffic appears not to be the major source of primary organic aerosol, its contribution to particulate matter as a whole is major due to traffic EC emissions, traffic NOx emissions acting as a precursor for nitrate, and through resuspension. The surprising result of a major regional control of fine aerosol (PM1 or PM2.5) in the Paris agglomeration calls for European coordination of pollutant abatement strategies to reduce PM levels in this agglomeration.

Discussion and conclusion Two very intensive MEGAPOLI measurement campaigns were performed in Paris, Ile-de-France region, as an example of a big European megacity, during one month in summer 2009 and one month in winter 2010. The campaign showed an unexpectedly strong regional control on PM levels in the agglomeration. Wood burning (during winter) and cooking activities (during summer and winter) were strong contributors to primary organic aerosol, in addition to traffic. During summer, secondary organic aerosol, mostly of biogenic origin, was the major fraction of organic aerosols. Aircraft measurements within the plume (up to 200 km downwind of the agglomeration) showed significant additionnal secondary aerosol build-up due to anthropogenic emissions. MEGAPOLI campaign data are available from the French Ether database. These data have been used for evaluation of novel aerosol schemes implemented into air quality models.

List of WP reports, publications, presentations Brands, M., M. Kamphus, T. Böttger, J. Schneider, F. Drewnick, A. Roth, J. Curtius, C. Voigt, A. Borbon,

M. Beekmann, A. Bourdon, T. Perrin, and S. Borrmann: Characterization of a newly developed aircraft-based laser ablation aerosol mass spectrometer (ALABAMA) and first field deployment in urban pollution plumes over Paris during MEGAPOLI 2009, Aerosol Sci. Technol., 45, 46-64, 2011.



Healy Robert M., Jean Sciare, Laurent Poulain, Katharina Kamili, Maik Merkel, Thomas Müller, Alfred Wiedensohler, Sabine Eckhardt, Andreas Stohl, Roland Sarda-Estève, Eoin McGillicuddy, Ian P. O’Connor, John R. Sodeau, John C. Wenger, Sources and mixing state of size-resolved elemental carbon particles in a European megacity: Paris, submitted to Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Discussions 2011 (will be accepted in ACPD at time of delivery of the report).

Royer, P., Chazette, P., S artelet, K., Zhang, Q. J., Beekmann, M., and Raut, J.-C.: Lidar-derived PM10 and comparison with regional modeling in the frame of the MEGAPOLI Paris summer campaign, Atmos. Chem. Phys. Discuss., 11, 11861-11909, doi:10.5194/acpd-11-11861-2011, 2011 (accepted for ACP).

Sciare, J. O. d’Argouges, R. Sarda-Estève, C.Gaimoz, V. Gros, Q.Zhang, M. Beekmann, O. Sanchez (2010) Regional and continental contribution to PM2.5 in Paris (France) during springtime, Atmos. Chem. Phys. Discuss., 10, 16861–16900.

Sciare, J., O. d’Argouges, R. Sarda-Estève, C. Gaimoz, C. Dolgorouki, N. Bonnaire, O. Favez, B. Bonsang and V. Gros, Large contribution of water insoluble secondary organic aerosols in the region of Paris (France) during wintertime, J. Geophys. Res., 10.1029/2011JD015756, 2011.

Conference contributions : Abidi, E. N. Marchand, A. Monod, J. Cozic and J.-L. Jaffrezo. Wintertime and summertime source

apportionment of primary fine particles, using chemical organic compounds as tracers, in a European megacity: Paris. European Aerosol Conference (EAC), Manchester, September 2011.

Abidi, E., N. Marchand, A. Monod, L. Poulain, J. Cozic and J.-L. Jaffrezo. Wintertime and summertime source apportionment of primary fine particles, using chemical organic compounds as tracers, in a European megacity: Paris. 10th International Conference on Carbonaceous Particles in the Atmosphere (ICCPA), Vienne, Austria, June, 26-29, 2011.

Ait-Helal, W. , A. Borbon, A. Colomb, V. Michoud, C. Afif, I. Fronval, T. Leonardis, S. Sauvage, N. Locoge and the LISA, Primary and secondary gaseous organic carbon in Paris plume during the MEGAPOLI summer experiment, Proceeding of the European Geosciences Union General Assembly 2010, (May 2-7), XY140.

Beekmann M., U. Baltensperger, A. Borbon, J. Sciare, V. Gros, A. Baklanov, M. Lawrence, S. Pandis, and the MEGAPOLI Paris-campaign team (2009): The MEGAPOLI Paris campaign for urban aerosol characterisation, EGU General Assembly, Vienna, April 2009.

Beekmann M, U. Baltensperger, A. Borbon, J. Sciare, V. Gros, A. Baklanov, M. Lawrence, S. Pandis, and the MEGAPOLI Paris-campaign team (2009): The MEGAPOLI Paris campaign for urban aerosol characterisation, first results, EMS General Assembly, Toulouse, September 2009.

Beekmann M., U. Baltensperger, A. Borbon, J. Sciare, V. Gros, A. Baklanov, M. Lawrence, S. Pandis, and the MEGAPOLI Paris-campaign team (2010): The MEGAPOLI Paris campaign : Overview of first results for urban aerosol characterisation (invited), EGU General Assembly, Vienna, May 2010.

Bressi, M., J. Sciare, V. Ghersi, N. Mihalopoulos, S. Moukhtar, A. Rosso, N. Bonnaire, J. Nicolas, J-E. Petit, A. Feron, M. Artufel, H. Cachier, A comprehensive study of fine aerosols (PM2.5) in the region of Paris (France): chemical characterization, major sources, and geographical origins. Oral communication, European Aerosol Conference, September 2011, Manchester, UK

Brands, M., M. Kamphus, J. Schneider, C. Voigt, F. Drewnick and S. Borrmann, Development of an Aircraft-based Laser Ablation Aerosol Mass Spectrometer (ALABAMA), Eurpoean Aerosol Conference, Karlsruhe, Germany, 2009.

Brands, M., J. Schneider, F. Drewnick, C.Voigt, M. Kamphus, L. Gomes, T. Bourianne,S. Borrmann, Development and Field Deployment of an Aircraft-based LAser ABlation Aerosol MAss Spectrometer (ALABAMA), AAAR 28th Annual Conference, Minneapolis, USA, 2009.

Crippa, M., P.F. DeCarlo, C. Mohr, R. Chirico, M.F. Heringa, R. Richter, C. Di Marco, E.Nemitz, A.S.H. Prevot, U. Baltensperger, Investigation of the chemical composition, sources and aging of aerosol particles in Paris using mobile and stationary data, International Aerosol Conference, 2010, Helsinki, Finland.

Crippa M., P. F. DeCarlo, C. Mohr, R. Chirico, M.F. Heringa, J. Slowik, L. Poulain, F. Freutel, F. Drewnick, J. Schneider, C.F. Di Marco, E. Nemitz, R. Zimmermann, M. Elsasser, A.S.H. Prévôt, U. Baltensperger, Wintertime organics source apportionment in the Paris region, AAAR 30th Annual Conference, Orlando, USA, October 2011.



Dologorouky, C., V. Gros, R. Sarda-Esteve, V. Sinha and J. Williams, OH reactivity measurements in Paris during the winter campaign of the MEGAPOLI project (January-February 2010), poster, European Geophysical Union Conference, Vienne, May 2010.

Dologorouky, C., V. Gros, R. Sarda-Esteve, B. Bonsang, V. Sinha and J. Williams, The effect of the ambient nitrogen monoxide (NO) on the quantification of the total OH reactivity levels in Paris (MEGAPOLI winter campaign 2010), poster, European Geophysical Union Conference, Vienne, April 2011.

Dologorouky, C. , V. Gros, R. Sarda-Esteve, B. Bonsang, V. Sinha and J. Williams, Développement de la mesure de la réactivité atmosphérique avec les radicaux hydroxyles et premiers résultats de la campagne d’hiver du projet MEGAPOLI (Janvier – Février 2010), oral communication (in French), oral communication (in French), journée scientifique du SIRTA, May 2011

Drewnick, Frank, von der Weiden, Sarah-Lena, Freutel, Friederike, Klimach, Thomas, Dzepina, Katja, Roth, Anja, Gallavardin, Stéphane, Friederike Freutel and the MEGAPOLI Team, Particle emissions of a Megacity (Paris, France): Results from the MEGAPOLI 2009 summer campaign, Geophysical Research Abstracts, Vol. 13, EGU2011-3177-1, 2011, EGU General Assembly 2011.

Freutel, F. , T. Klimach, J. Schneider, F. Drewnick, and S. Borrmann, Cluster analysis of single particle data acquired with a Light Scattering Probe AMS during the MEGAPOLI campaigns in Paris, France, European Aerosol Conference, Manchester, UK, September 2011.

Gros V., N. Marchand, M. Lopez, C. Gaimoz, N. Bonnaire, B. Bonsang, B.Termine, A. Colomb, A. Borbon , Atmospheric VOCs variability and sources in Paris: results from the AEROCOV campaign (May-June 2007) and preliminary results from the MEGAPOLI campaing (July 2009), invited oral communication, Workshop “Multiphase reactivity of atmospheric VOCs and its impact on climate, Health and materials”, Paris, Oct 6-8, 2009.

Gros, V., C. Gaimoz, S.Sauvage, N. Locoge, F. Herrmann, J. Williams, N. Marchand, B. Temime Roussel, O.Perrussel, M.Lopez, N. Bonnaire, B. Bonsang, VOCs source apportionment in Paris : how VOCs measurements can help to evaluate emission inventory data, invited oral communication, Workshop on Ozone – a regional and global pollutant Wengen, Suisse Septembre 2010.

Gros, V. , A. Borbon, A. Colomb, N. Marchand, N. Locoge, C. Gaimoz, M. Lopez, Vincent Michoud, Warda Ait-Helal, Ehgere Abidi, N. Bonnaire, B. Bonsang, B. Termine, T. Leonardis, Campagnes MEGAPOLI (Juillet 2009 et Janvier/Février 2010): résultats préliminaires de la variabilité des espèces gazeuses (O3, CO, NOx et COV) à Paris centre et au SIRTA, oral communication (in French), journée scientifique du SIRTA, March 2010.

Healy, Robert M. , Stig Hellebust, Arnaud Allanic, Ian P. O’Connor, Eoin McGillicuddy, John R. Sodeau and John C. Wenger, "Applications of Single Particle Mass Spectrometry in Urban Environments", Oral Presentation at the 10th Annual "Urban Air Quality and Traffic" Workshop, Kinsale, Ireland, 19-21 September 2011

Healy Robert M., Jean Sciare, Laurent Poulain, Katharina Kamili, Maik Merkel, Thomas Müller, Alfred Wiedensohler, Sabine Eckhardt, Andreas Stohl, Roland Sarda-Estève, Eoin McGillicuddy, Ian P. O’Connor, John R. Sodeau, John C. Wenger"Sources and mixing state of size-resolved elemental carbon particles in a European megacity: Paris", Oral Presentation at the 30th Annual "American Association for Aerosol Research (AAAR)" Conference, Orlando, Florida, 3-7 October 2011.

Jurányi, Z., M. Gysel, T. Tritscher, E. Weingartner, U. Baltensperger, Deriving the hygroscopic mixing state from cloud condensation nuclei measurements during the MEGAPOLI campaign in Paris, International Aerosol Conference, 2010, Helsinki, Finland.

Kamilli, Katharina, Laurent Poulain, Andreas Nowak, Andreas Held, Wolfram Birmili, Alfred Wiedensohler, Hygroscopic properties of the urban aerosol in Paris in relation to its chemical compositions, EAC-2011, Manchester, UK

Laborde, M., M. Gysel, E. Weingartner, U. Baltensperger, Measure of black carbon microphysical properties in Paris, International Aerosol Conference, 2010, Helsinki, Finland.

Michoud, V., W. Ait-Helal, A. Colomb, A. Borbon, C. Afif, K. Miet, S. Perrier, J. Bechara, R. Durand-Jolibois, H. Mac Leod, S. Chevaillier, V. Gros, N. Amarouche, J-F. Doussin, Caractéristiques des composés azotés (NOy, NOx, PAN, HONO) et d’autres gaz traces (O3, CO) dans le panache parisien durant les campagnes MEGAPOLI, Journées Scientifiques du SIRTA, Palaiseau, France, Mars, 2010.

Michoud, V., A. Colomb, A. Borbon, W. Ait-Helal, C. Afif, V. Gros, J-F. Doussin, Charactéristics of reactive nitrogen compouds (NOy, PAN, HONO, NOx) and other relevant trace gases (O3, CO) in Paris plume during MEGAPOLI summer campaign, European Geosciences Union, Vienne, Autriche, Mai, 2010.



Michoud, V., A. Colomb, A. Borbon, W. Ait-Helal, N. Locoge, K. Miet, A. Kukui, C. Afif, J-F. Doussin, M. Beekmann, A photochemical study with a focus on O3/NOy/HOx observations during MEGAPOLI summer campaign in the Greater Paris Area, European Geosciences Union, Vienne, Autriche, Avril, 2011.

Michoud, V., A. Colomb, J-F. Doussin, Pollution atmosphérique urbaine: campagne de terrain MEGAPOLI en région parisienne, Journées Scientifiques de l’Environnement, Créteil, France, Février, 2011

Michoud, - V., A. Colomb, A. Borbon, W. Ait-Helal, N. Locoge, K. Miet, A. Kukui, C. Afif, J.F. Doussin, M. Beekmann, Etude photochimique pendant la campagne été de MEGAPOLI au SIRTA, Journée Scientifique du SIRTA, Palaiseau, Ecole Polytechnique, France, Mai, 2011.

Miet K., Michoud V., Borbon A., Colomb A., Amarouche N., Grand N., Zhang Q., Petetin H., Doussin J.-F., Beekmann M., Airborne study of photo-oxidant chemistry in Paris plume during MEGAPOLI summer campaign, European Geosciences Union, Vienne, Autriche, Avril, 2011.

Petetin Hervé, Beekmann Matthias, Michoud Vincent, Doussin Jean-François, Colomb Aurélie, Schwarzenboeck Alfons, Van der Gon Hugo, Honoré Cécile, and Wiedensohler Alfred, Evaluating NOY and BC emission inventories for the Paris region from MEGAPOLI aircraft measurements, Proceeding of the European Geosciences Union General Assembly 2011, (April 3-8), XY103.

Poulain, L. K. Kamilli, M. Merkel, A. Held, J. Sciare, R. Sarda-Esteve, E. Larmanou, A. Wiedensohler, Particle characterization using two on-line instruments (PILS and AMS) during MEGAPOLI intensive campaigns in Paris, International Aerosol Conference, 2010, Helsinki, Finland.

Prevot, A. S. H., Crippa, M., Pandis, S., Beekmann, M., Baltensperger, U., Megapoli Team : Organic aerosols and their sources in Paris during the MEGAPOLI campaigns, European Geosciences Union (EGU) General Assembly, Vienna, Austria, April 4-8, 2011.

Royer, P., Chazette, P., Raut, J.-C. : Vertical profiles of PM10 concentrations derived from mobile lidar measurements in the framework of the MEGAPOLI experiment, Reviewed and revised papers presented at the 25th International Laser Radar Conference (ILRC), St Petersburg, 5-9 July, 2010.

Royer, P., Chazette, P., Sartelet, K., Beekmannn, M., Zhang, Q., and Raut, J.-C.: Lidar-derived PM10 concentrations and comparison with regional modeling in the frame of MEGAPOLI, European Geosciences Union (EGU) General Assembly, Vienna, Austria, 4-8 April, 2011.

Royer, P., Chazette, P., Raut, J.-C.: Vertical profiles of PM10 concentrations derived from mobile lidar measurements in the framework of the Megapoli experiment, IGAC, Halifax, July, 2010.

Sciare, J., R. Sarda-Esteve, & J. Nicolas, Hourly-resolved mass closure of fine aerosols (PM2.5) in Paris (France) during summertime: First results of the EU-FP7-MEGAPOLI program, Geophysical Research Abstracts, Vol. 12, EGU2010-7069, EGU General Assembly, Vienna, Austria, May 2010.

Sciare, J., R. Sarda-Esteve, L. Poulain, K. Kamilli, M. Merkel, A. Held, J. Nicolas, A. Wiedensohler, Time-resolved characterization of organic aerosols in Paris (France) during summertime: First results from the EU-FP7- MEGAPOLI project, IAC, Helsinki, Finland, September 2010.

Sciare J., N. Bonnaire, G. Mocnik, J. Nicolas, J.E. Petit, M. Bressi, R. Sarda-Estève, Real-time measurements of levoglucosan in fine aerosols (PM2.5) in the region of Paris (France), AGU conference, San Francisco, December 2011.

Sciare, J., R. Sarda-Estève, and J. Nicolas, Hourly-resolved mass closure of fine aerosols (PM2.5) in Paris (France): First results of the EU-FP7-MEGAPOLI project, EGU conference, Vienna, Austria, April 2010

Poulain, L., K. Kamilli, M. Merkel, A. Held, J. Sciare, R. Sarda-Estave, E. Larmanou, A. Wiedensohler, Particle characterization using two on-line instruments (PILS and AMS) during MEGAPOLI intensive campaigns in Paris, IAC, Helsinki, Finland, September 2010.

Schneider, Johannes, Brands, Marco, Klimach, Thomas, Drewnick, Frank, Roth, Anja, Freutel, Friederike, von der Weiden, Sarah-Lena, Gallavardin, Stephane, and Borrmann, Stephan, Aircraft- and ground-based single particle aerosol analyses of the Paris urban plume during MEGAPOLI 2009, International Aerosol Conference, Helsinki, Finland, 2010.

Schneider, Johannes, Zorn, Sören, Diesch, Jovana, Fachinger, Johannes, Reitz, Paul, Schmale, Julia, Beekmann, Matthias and Borrmann, Stephan, Investigation of megacity emissions using combined mobile and stationary measurements during the MEGAPOLI field campaigns in Paris – impact on ambient air quality and transformation processes, International Aerosol Conference, Helsinki, Finland, 2010.

Tritscher, T., M. Crippa, Z. Jurányi, M. Laborde, M. Gysel, A.S.H. Prevot, E. Weingartner, U. Baltensperger, Volatility and hygroscopicity of ambient aerosols during MEGAPOLI Paris campaign, AAAR 30th Annual Conference, Orlando, USA, October 2011.



Visser, S., M. Furger, A. Richard, U. Flechsig, K. Appel, A.S.H. Prevot, U. Baltensperger, Elemental composition of PM10, PM2.5 and PM1.0 aerosols in Paris, European Aerosol Conference, Manchester, UK, September 2011.

Von der Weiden, Sarah-Lena; Drewnick, Frank; Zorn, Sören; Diesch, Jovana; Dzepina, Katja; Beekmann, Matthias; Borrmann, Stephan: Urban pollution measurements in the Paris region using a mobile laboratory within the MEGAPOLI project, International Aerosol Conference, Helsinki, Finland, 2010.



3.4. WP4: Megacity Air Quality Coordinated by N. Moussiopoulos (AUTH) MEGAPOLI Partners involved: DMI, FORTH, AUTH, CNRS, FMI, NILU, UHel, UH-CAIR, ARIANET

Summary of progress toward objectives The objectives of WP4 focus on the improvement of our understanding and ability to simulate multiscale transport and transformation processes of air pollutants in megacities. Major research needs on this include a detailed and more reliable air quality assessment, improved source apportionment and exposure pattern analysis in megacities, as well as quantifying potential links between urban air quality, meteorology and climate change. More specifically, the objectives of WP4 can be stated as follows: • O4.1: To apply urban scale models with advanced physical and chemical parameterisations

in order to more efficiently describe and assess air quality in megacities • O4.2: To evaluate the performance of the new parameterisations in selected applications • O4.3: To describe and quantify the two-way interaction between megacity air quality and

meteorology • O4.4: To assess source contribution in the selected urban areas and suggest

recommendations for other cities • Q4.5: To use source apportionment exercise findings in order to identify exposure patterns. Several model improvement and applications have been carried out during the second year of the project, comprising the bulk of the work foreseen in WP4. Physical and chemical parameterisations have been implemented and applied in modelling cases covering several megacities. The deliverables that have been prepared include key findings regarding zooming approaches describing multiscale physical and chemical processes, as well as the investigation of meteorological patterns favouring development of urban air pollution episodes. The work done in this WP has produced results by the application of meteorological, air quality and exposure models in the core MEGAPOLI city of Paris, large conurbations in the Eastern United States, as well as in the European continent, including London, Po Valley and the Rhine Ruhr region. The results of the evaluation of the aforementioned approaches have revealed numerous clues on the relative importance of various parameterisations when examining megacity air quality. Source apportionment methodologies have also been reviewed and applied in the case of Paris, aiming to develop a methodology to combine receptor-based analysis and dispersion modelling for establishing a consistent attribution of the analysed factors to specific source categories. Finally, exposure modelling as well as methodologies for the assessment of the uncertainties specific to such exposure calculations have been combined with a sub-grid variability approach to assess impacts on European wide and city-scale exposure estimates.


Deliverable 4.4 - Evaluation of methodologies for exposure analysis in urban areas and

application to selected megacities The methodology implemented in this deliverable enables the improvement of estimates of the

population weighted concentrations, which are used in long term health impact studies. The potential of the method is that low resolution models can be used for fast multiple scenario or sensitivity calculations, even as retaining their ability to calculate population exposure. The



results of the small scale exposure modeling studies are very much in line with the large scale correction factor analyses, although the small scale studies are based on one specific city area (Helsinki metropolitan Area) and one specific pollutant (PM2.5) as well as in other cities and for other pollutants, the exact values for correction factors will differ from this case study. However, a method has been demonstrated for estimating these resolution effects in smaller scales, which can be readily utilized in any city and for every pollutant, up to the finest resolutions where emission data, population data and model calculations are available. It has also been shown that temporal resolution used in exposure calculations can have a major effect on the relative contributions of traffic, home and work locations to the total exposure. Especially the exposures in traffic and at work will typically be underestimated while the exposures at home will be overestimated.

Karppinen A., Kangas L., Riikonen K., Kukkonen J., Soares J., Denby B., Cassiani M., Finardi S., Radice P., (2010): Evaluation of Methodologies for Exposure Analysis in Urban Areas and Application to Selected Megacities. Deliverable D4.4, MEGAPOLI Scientific Report 10-18, MEGAPOLI-21-REP-2010-11, 29p, ISBN: 978-87-993898-9-6

http://megapoli.dmi.dk/publ/MEGAPOLI_sr10-18.pdf Deliverable 4.5 - Exposure maps for selected megacities

The methodology described and implemented here illustrates a simple assessment of human exposure for the Greater London and for the Po Valley region. The present study results are compared with the results from Deliverable 4.4. The results obtained by the Deliverable 4.5 provide an order of magnitude of the values for population averaged concentrations, since these two studies were conducted for different years. The population averaged concentrations obtained from the high resolution exposure study for the Greater London is 24.5 µg/m3 for PM10 and 42.4 µg/m3 for NO2. When comparing with the regional scale resolution assessment, the difference in population weighted concentration estimates (and exposures) are 1.5-2 times higher in the high resolution study. This difference can be explained by the different reference years for each study and that the Greater London is represented as a single grid cell in the regional scale resolution study. For the Po Valley region case, the values obtained by these two different modeling studies for PM10 are much closer to each other: according to the higher resolution exposure study the population averaged concentrations for PM10 are 27.1 µg/m3 while the values regional scale study range between 16.5-19.3 µg/m3 in the regional modeling based study. The results for Po Valley are much more comparable since the years studied are much closer - the emissions will be more similar - and the gridding for Po Valley study for the regional scale calculations is much more representative for the whole area than in the Greater London case study.

Soares J., A. Karppinen, B. Denby, S. Finardi, J. Kukkonen, M. Cassiani, P. Radice, M.Williams (2010): Exposure Maps for Selected Megacities. Deliverable D4.5, MEGAPOLI Scientific Re-port 10-19, MEGAPOLI-22-REP-2010-11, 26p, ISBN: 978-87-92731-00-5

http://megapoli.dmi.dk/publ/MEGAPOLI_sr10-19.pdf Deliverable 4.6 - Evaluation of source apportionment methods

Several modelling methodologies have been reviewed and tested in the apportionment of ambient pollutants, including receptor-based models, methods based on advanced chemical dispersion modelling, as well as innovative combinations of both. The first part of the survey involved the application of the PMCAMx-2008 model in simulations of mass concentration and chemical composition of particulate matter (PM) during the periods of May 2008 and February-March 2009 (Karydis et al, 2010). The model revealed that much of the traditionally thought as primary OA (POA) emissions is actually evaporating to produce low-volatility organic vapours which are the source (through photochemical aging) of a substantial amount of oxygenated OA. PMCAMx results were used further to explore the predicted contributions of various sources to total organic aerosol concentrations in Paris, London, Athens, Po Valley and Ruhr area. The



predicted source contributions to OA in Paris showed a strong diurnal variation of fresh POA with increases during the rush hours and relatively flat profiles for the other OA components. During the winter period a more distinct diurnal variation was predicted in most of the cities following the diurnal variation of emission rates mainly due to combustion. The second part of the investigation has focused on exploring and improving upon existing receptor modelling methodologies. As established practice, Chemical Mass Balance (CMB) models are applied when emission sources are known and detailed information on source profiles is available, whereas in case the sources are unknown or information on source profiles is limited, the Principal Component Analysis (PCA), Positive Matrix Factorisation (PMF) or Nonnegative Matrix Factorisation (NMF) methods are usually preferred. The developed method aims to supplement the factor analysis of measurements by combining receptor modelling with results of dispersion simulations. The approach was tested using a zero-out method for traffic emissions in the Paris metropolitan area where the relative contributions of the two principal factors was accurately determined. A key benefit of the use of this approach is that it can be applied with a limited computational cost as the runs required for a successful interpretation need only cover limited time periods.

Moussiopoulos N., Douros J., Tsegas G. (Eds) (2010): Evaluation of Source Apportionment Meth-ods. Deliverable D4.6, MEGAPOLI Scientific Report 10-22, MEGAPOLI-25-REP-2010-12, 54p, ISBN: 978-87-92731-03-6

http://megapoli.dmi.dk/publ/MEGAPOLI_sr10-22.pdf Tasks 4.4-4.5 have continued and were finalised during the 3rd year.

The 2nd part of the project contained the main workload for WP4 and 3 more deliverables (D4.4, 4.5 and 4.6) were delivered. Tasks 4.1-4.5 were finalised with all model results becoming available and analysed in order to provide input to the rest of the WPs. Following the plan set on the first part of the project, FORTH used the developed tools for applications in the European domain focusing on Paris, but also on the rest of the target megacities. The detailed three dimensional chemical transport model PMCAMx-2008 was applied for the first time in 5 Megacities in Europe, in order to simulate the mass concentration and chemical composition of particulate matter (PM) during the periods of May 2008 and February/March 2009. The modelling results can be used further to explore the predicted contributions of various sources to total organic aerosol concentrations at specific cities. FORTH will also be able to provide the output of the model to any MEGAPOLI group for detailed exposure calculations. CNRS-LISA performed meso-to-urban scale chemical transport simulations for the Paris area using the CIMERE while UH-CAIR contributed to combined estimations of the urban concentration increment with the use of WRF/CMAQ mesoscale model and the simpler OSCAR model. FMI have conducted various exposure model refinement and evaluation studies, based on the methodology that was the outcome of the first project year. The aim was to apply the methodologies in Po Valley region (Italy) and London (United Kingdom), in collaboration with the National Agency for New Technologies, Energy and Sustainable Economic Development - Italy (ENEA), ARIANET and the University of Hertfordshire, respectively. FMI have also evaluated population exposure distributions using an urban scale probabilistic exposure model (Hänninen et al., 2009), and analysed population exposure to primary fine particles from vehicular traffic and domestic wood combustion (Tainio et al., 2009b). NILU contributed with the application of the sub-grid variability method, developed during the 1st year, in the exposure assessment tasks in WP4. AUTH, as WP leader, is working to ensure cooperation between the research teams in the project in order to achieve the final WP4 goals, including the compilation of all WP4 reports. In this part of the project, AUTH concluded the survey of advanced source-apportionment methods by finalising an extensive review of existing methodologies, developing and testing new approaches that combine receptor modelling, chemical dispersion models and trajectory-particle modelling.



Task 4.4: Source apportionment – identification and quantification of relevant pathways (lead: AUTH)

Several modelling methodologies have been reviewed and tested in the apportionment of ambient pollutants, including receptor-based models, methods based on advanced chemical dispersion modelling, as well as innovative combinations of both. FORTH has applied the PMCAMx-2008 model in simulations of mass concentration and chemical composition of particulate matter (PM) during the periods of May 2008 and February-March 2009 (Karydis et al, 2010). During this study, modelling results were used to explore the predicted contributions of various sources to total organic aerosol concentrations in Paris, London, Athens, Po Valley and Ruhr area (Figure 4.1).

Figure 4.1: Predicted average ground-level fractional contribution of a) anthropogenic SOA, b)

biogenic SOA, c) oxidized POA, and, d) fresh primary POA to PM1 total OA during May 2008. Different scales are used.

The predicted source contributions to OA in Paris showed a strong diurnal variation of fresh POA with increases during the rush hours and relatively flat profiles for the other OA components (Figure 4.2). During the winter period a more distinct diurnal variation was predicted in most of the cities following the diurnal variation of emission rates mainly due to combustion.



Figure 4.2: Average diurnal profile of PM1 OA components in 5 European Megacities during May 2008. Different scales are used.

The second part of the investigation has focused on exploring and improving upon existing receptor modelling methodologies. A thorough review of source apportionment methods using a synthetic case over an urban area has been partially performed, building the model set-up to test some of the most used source apportionment methods, namely Principal Component Analysis (PCA), Positive Matrix Factorization (PMF), Chemical Mass Balance (CMB) and UNMIX. The recent availability of high resolution emission data for Paris enabled the application of those methods for a realistic case. The developed method aims to supplement the factor analysis of measurements by combining receptor modelling with results of dispersion simulations. The approach was tested using a zero-out method for traffic emissions in the Paris metropolitan area (Figure 4.3), whereby the relative contributions of the two principal factors was accurately determined (Figure 4.4).

Figure 4.3: Difference map for O3 concentrations in the Paris metropolitan area, calculated with

baseline and the zeroed out traffic emissions. A key benefit of the use of this approach is that it can be applied with a limited computational cost as the runs required for a successful interpretation need only cover limited time periods.



Figure 4.4: NMF factor loadings obtained from concentration time-series calculated for the Aubervillers station using the full-emissions (left) and zero-traffic (right).

Task 4.5: Exposure estimates (lead: FMI)

During the reporting period, FMI have conducted various exposure model refinement and evaluation studies. The Institute of Health and Welfare (IHW) in Finland and the FMI team have developed methods for evaluating the exposures, especially using intake fractions, on an urban (Loh et al., 2009) and on an European scale (Tainio et al., 2009a). Several journal articles have been published in this area, most recently Tainio et al. (2010). The aim was to apply the methodologies in Po Valley region (Italy) and London (United Kingdom), in collaboration with the National Agency for New Technologies, Energy and Sustainable Economic Development - Italy (ENEA), ARIANET and the University of Hertfordshire, respectively. A sample exposure map obtained in the course of this work is shown in Figure 4.5. FMI have also evaluated population exposure distributions using an urban scale probabilistic exposure model (Hänninen et al., 2009), and analysed population exposure to primary fine particles from vehicular traffic and domestic wood combustion (Tainio et al., 2009b). There has also been an analysis of the influence of the model spatial resolution on the computed exposure values. NILU has been developing a sub-grid variability method for the exposure assessments in WP4

Figure 4.5: Left: PM2.5 yearly average concentrations (μg/m3) for the Greater London (provided by CERC),

year 2001. Right: Annual PM2.5 exposure scaled to 1km2 grid cell (μg s/m3) for the Po Valley region, 2005.




A revised version of the PMCAMx model (called PMCAMx-2008), a detailed three dimensional CTM developed by FORTH, was applied for the first time in the European domain to simulate the mass concentration and chemical composition of particulate matter (PM) during the periods of May 2008 and February/March 2009. The model shows that much of the traditionally thought as primary organic aerosol (OA) emissions is actually evaporating to produce low-volatility organic vapors which are the source (through photochemical aging) of a substantial amount of oxygenated OA that is distributed not only in urban and suburban areas but rural regions as well. The modelling results will be used to further explore the predicted contributions of various sources to total organic aerosol concentrations at specific cities Meteorological simulations for the Paris area were performed by AUTH using the MEMO model under different model configurations. Sensitivity tests against several data assimilation schemes were investigated in order to optimise the model performance in respect to the driving boundary conditions. Statistical assessment of the simulation has been performed using statistical indicators (Index of Agreement, Correlation Coefficient), providing encouraging results. Application of a metamodelling methodology, developed for the implementation of an efficient two-way coupling between a mesoscale and a microscale CFD model, are currently in progress. It is expected that the improved accuracy of the flows calculated by the coupled system will enhance the resolving power of chemical dispersion models in the studied extended urban area of Paris. DMI realised the new development nesting in the micro- to meso-scale on-line coupled model Enviro-HIRLAM+M2UE considering two-way feedbacks between urban aerosols and meteorological processes (including the indirect aerosol effects). AUTH has also been aiming at a more accurate description of the feedbacks involved in the direct aerosol effect, through an on-line coupled system that was developed consisting of the mesoscale Eulerian meteorological model MEMO and the chemical transport model MARS-aero. The system was used for calculating the direct aerosol effect on mesoscale meteorological and dispersion fields over the urban area of Paris, France. The performance of the new formulation was evaluated by observing the response of the primary meteorological variables governing the transport and dispersion of pollutants, as well as trends in particulate matter concentrations, revealing that the radiative forcing due to the direct effect has a substantial impact on meteorological variables and the development of a lower inversion layer. Exposure model refinement and evaluation studies were conducted by FMI together with the Institute of Health and Welfare (IHW) in Finland (Loh et al, 2009) as well as on an European scale (Tainio et al, 2009a). The current state-of-art in assessing human exposure to air pollution, was reviewed by evaluating exposure models based on mathematical modelling and analysing the limitations and uncertainties specific to exposure modelling. As an illustration of the uncertainties and methodologies which can be used to assess the uncertainties we also present analyses and case studies on the effect of spatial and temporal resolutions on the exposure modelling. NILU has developed a method for the exposure assessments which is able to account for sub-grid variability of concentrations and their spatial correlation with population distribution. This enables improved estimates of the population weighted concentrations, which are used in long term health impact studies. The potential of the method is that large grid sizes, i.e. low resolution models, can be used for fast multiple scenario or sensitivity calculations whilst retaining their ability to calculate population exposure. The only requirement in regard to input data to the parameterisation is that emission data must be available at a suitably high resolution. Since the parameterisation includes the emission population covariance any changes in



emission, or population, distributions in future scenarios will be implicitly included in the parameterisation. An exposure modelling approach, combining ambient air concentrations of pollutants and population activity data concentrations, was used to calculate human personal exposure to different atmospheric pollutants for two different case studies: Greater London (United Kingdom) and Po Valley region (Italy).

Socio-economic relevance and policy implications WP4 places a particular emphasis on the interactions between air quality and meteorology at the megacity scale which in turn has impacts on regional to global scales and potential mitigation options. These impacts are especially pronounced in major urban centres, rendering improved knowledge on multi-scale transport processes, an important aspect of this WP. This work is progressing towards an integration of results obtained by the application of fine-scale air quality models in selected cities (e.g. Paris) and novel, more accurate estimations of population exposure. Detailed concentration fields are of great relevance both to humans but also to the ecosystem and will result (in other WPs) in the quantification the impacts, resulting among others to significant economic damage. Improved knowledge on physicochemical processes and assessment methodologies will support, through incorporation in an integrated framework, the wider European policy in its objective to decouple economic growth from environmental degradation and to help promote sustainable production.

Discussion and conclusion The WP4 research work had been successfully completed. The main modelling tools have been used in megacity test cases at various levels, while at the same time undergoing extensive validation. The results obtained are being compiled and analysed in order to provide the final scientific conclusions relevant to the scientific questions that have been posed by the Project.

List of WP reports, publications, presentations Baklanov A. and R. Nuterman, (2009): Multi-scale atmospheric environment modelling for urban areas.

Advances in Science and Research, 3, 53-57. Denby, B. R., M. Cassiani, J. Horálek, P. de Smet and F. de Leeuw (2010): Sub-grid variability in regional

scale air quality models and its impact on exposure assessment. To be submitted to Atmospheric Environment.

Farina, S. C., Adams, P. J. and Pandis, S. N. (2010): Modeling global secondary organic aerosol formation and processing with the volatility basis set: Implications for anthropogenic secondary organic aerosol. Journal of Geophysical Research, 115, D09202, doi:10.1029/2009JD013046.

Fragkou, E., Douros, I. and Moussiopoulos, N. (2010): The use of models for source apportionment and for assessing the contribution of natural sources in response to the Air Quality Directive. In the Proceedings of the 13th International Conference on Harmonisation within Atmospheric Dispersion Modelling for Regulatory Purposes, (A. Albergel et al., eds), 985-989.

Gaydos T. M., Pinder R., Koo B., Fahey K. M., Yarwood G. and Pandis S. N., (2007) Development and application of a three-dimensional aerosol chemical transport model, PMCAMx, Atmos. Environ., 12, 2594-2611.

Halmer, G, I. Douros, G. Tsegas, and N. Moussiopoulos, (2010): Using a coupled meteorological and chemical transport modelling scheme to evaluate the impact of the aerosol direct effect on pollutant concentration fields in Paris, Proceedings of the 31th NATO/SPS International Technical Meeting on Air Pollution Modelling and its Application (ITM2010) (D.G. Steyn and S.T. Rao, eds), Turin, Italy, September 27 - October 1, 2010, 1.4, CD-ROM edition.

Hänninen Ο., Kauhaniemi, M., Karppinen, A., Kukkonen, J., Kousa, A., Jantunen, M., (2009): Inter-comparison of predicted population exposure distributions during four selected episodes in Helsinki and evaluation against measured data. International Journal of Environment and Pollution. 40, 248-266.



Hildebrandt, L., Donahue, N. M. and Pandis, S. N. (2009): High formation of secondary organic aerosolfrom the photo-oxidation of toluene. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 9, 2973-2986.

Karydis V.A., A.P. Tsimpidi, C. Fountoukis, A. Nenes, M. Zavala, W. Lei, L.T. Molina, and S.N. Pandis, (2010): Simulating the fine and coarse inorganic particulate matter concentrations in a polluted Megacity, Atmos. Environ., 44, 608-620.

Koraj D. and Pandis S. N., (2009): Evaluation of the particulate matter performance of a three-dimensional chemical transport model at different horizontal grid resolutions, in preparation.

Korsholm U. (2009): Integrated modeling of aerosol indirect effects - develoment and application of a chemical weather model. PhD thesis University of Copenhagen, Niels Bohr Institute and DMI, Research Department; http://www.dmi.dk/dmi/sr09-01.pdf

Korsholm, U. S., Baklanov, A., Gross, A., Mahura, A., Sass, B. H., Kaas, E., (2008). Online coupled chemical weather forecasting based on HIRLAM– overview and prospective of Enviro-HIRLAM. HIRLAM Newsletter, 54 (www.HIRLAM.org).

Korsholm U., Mahura A., Baklanov A., Gross A., Petersen C., Beekmann M., (2009): Aerosol-meteorology feedbacks on short time-scale in a convective case. Atmos. Environ. (submitted)

Lane T. E., N. M. Donahue, and S. N. Pandis, (2008): Simulating secondary organic aerosol formation using the volatility basis-set approach in a chemical transport model, Atmos. Environ., 42, 7439-7451.

Loh, M. M., Soares J., Karppinen A., Kukkonen K., (2009): Intake fraction distributions for benzene from vehicles in the Helsinki metropolitan area. Atmos. Environ., 43, 301–310.

Murphy B. N. and Pandis S. N., (2009): Simulating the formation of semivolatile primary and secondary aerosol in a regional chemical transport model, Environ. Sci. Tech., 43, 4722-4728.

Sievinen, P., J. Praks, M. Hallikainen, J. Koskinen, A. Hellsten, and J. Kukkonen (2009): ‘Urban morphology retrieval by means of remote sensing for the modelling of atmospheric dispersion and micro-meteorology’, Digest IEEE International Symposium on Geoscience and Remote Sensing (IGARSS’09), Cape Town, South Africa, 4 pp.

Shrivastava M. K., Lane T. E., Robinson N. M., Pandis S. N. and Robinson A. L., (2008): Effects of gas-particle partitioning and aging of primary emissions on urban and regional organic aerosol concentrations, J. Geophys. Res., 113, D18301.

Tainio M., Sofiev M. and Kukkonen J., (2009a): Evaluation of the European population intake fractions for European and Finnish anthropogenic primary fine particulate matter emissions. Atmos. Environ. 43, 3052-3059.

Tainio M., Sofiev M. and Kukkonen J., (2009b): A simple concept for GIS-based estimation of population exposure to primary fine particles from vehicular traffic and domestic wood combustion. Boreal Environment Research. 14, 850-860

Tainio M., Tuomisto J.T., Pekkanen J, Karvosenoja N., Kupiainen K., Porvari P., Sofiev M., Karppinen A., Kangas L., Kukkonen J., (2010): Uncertainty in health risks due to anthropogenic primary fine particulate matter from different source types in Finland. Atmos. Environ., in press.

Tsegas, G., Barmpas, Ph., Douros, I., Moussiopoulos, N. (2008): A metamodelling implementation of a two way coupled mesoscale-microscale flow model for urban area simulations. In: Ðuričić, V. (ed.) Proceedings of the 12th International Conference on Harmonisation within Atmospheric Dispersion Modelling for Regulatory Purposes, Cavtat, Croatia, 6-9 October, pp. 181-186

Tsegas, G., Barmpas Ph.,Douros I., and Moussiopoulos N., (2009): ‘Implementation of efficient two-way mesoscale-microscale coupling using interpolating metamodels’. In: Steyn, D.G. and Rao, S.T. (eds.) Air Pollution Modeling and its Application XX, Springer Science, 33-37

Tsimpidi A. P., Karydis V. A., Zavala M., Molina L., Ulbrich I., Jimenez J. L. and Pandis S.N., (2009): Evaluation of the volatility basis-set approach for the simulation of organic aerosol formation in the Mexico City metropolitan area, Atmos. Chem. Phys. Discus., 9, 13693-13737.

Tsimpidi, A. P., Karydis, V. A., Zavala, M., Lei, W., Molina, L., Ulbrich, I. M., Jimenez, J. L. and Pandis, S.N. (2010): Evaluation of the volatility basis-set approach for the simulation of organic aerosol formation in the Mexico City metropolitan area. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 10, 525-546.

Wagstrom K. M., Pandis S. N., Yarwood G. , Wilson G. M. and Morris R. E., (2008): Development and application of a computationally efficient particulate matter apportionment algorithm in a three-dimensional Chemical Transport Model, Atmos. Environ., 42, 5650-5659



3.5. WP5: Regional and global atmospheric composition Coordinated by J. Kukkonen (FMI) and A. Stohl (NILU) MEGAPOLI Partners involved: DMI, FORTH, MPIC, ARIANET, CNRS, FMI, NILU, TNO, MetO, UHam, UHel, UH-CAIR, UCam

Summary of progress toward objectives The main overall objective of WP5 is to quantify the effects of megacities on air quality of the region that surrounds and includes the megacities, and on the downwind atmospheric composition on regional to global scales. This has been achieved by combining regional and global Chemical Transport Models (CTMs) with ground-based and airborne measurements, including improved satellite observations. In particular, an intensive use of the observations from the Paris field campaign (WP3) and co-ordinated model analysis have resulted in the new insights of the city pollution levels and budget. There has been substantial progress in developing and evaluating the satellite-based methods for the measurement of tropospheric gases and aerosols. The MPIC team has developed, e.g., a retrieval algorithm for tropospheric NO2 vertical column densities for GOME-2 on METOP, adapted and refined the satellite retrieval algorithms, validated tropospheric trace gas products, and correlated NO2 observations with wind data (e.g., Chen et al., 2009; Hayn et al., 2009). The FMI and UHel teams have compared CALIOP level 2 aerosol subtypes to aerosol types derived from AERONET inversion data (Mielonen et al., 2009). An extensive review article on operational chemical weather forecasting models on regional and continental scales, in collaboration with COST Action ES0602 and MEGAPOLI, coordinated by FMI (Kukkonen et al., 2011) is under revision in Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics. The Fire Assimilation System (Sofiev et al., 2009ab) is updated into v.1.2 with new diurnal variation of the fire intensity. The retrospective analysis of the satellite observations has been completed by FMI back to 2000. Figure 5.1 presents the emission from fires in Russia during summer 2010.

Moscow, 6.8.2010Predicted (+16hrs): 1.5 mg PM10 / m3

Observed:1.3 mg PM10 / m3

Figure 5.1: The PM 10 emission and concentrations from forest fires in Russia. Emission: sum over

July-August, concentrations: at 12:00 on 6 Aug 2010 (unit: µg/m3). Image taken from the Fire Assimilation System of FMI.

A major effort of the WP5 was the multi-model ensemble created for the evaluation of the regional chemistry transport models participating in MEGAPOLI. This effort has provided the



solid ground for the bulk of the deliverables and has laid the ground for scientific papers, which are now being prepared. An example of the ensemble presentation is shown in Figure 5.2

Figure 5.2: Near surface concentrations of NO2, [μg m-3], 5 May 2009, 15:00

Figure 5.3. Near surface concentrations of O3, [μg m-3], 5 May 2009, 15:00

UHam has investigated the necessity for different nesting approaches employing their model system M-SYS (sub-models METRAS, MITRAS, MECTM, MICTM). Schlünzen et al. (2011) show that for obstacle resolving models a dynamical nesting might not be needed but a combination of quasi-steady-state solutions might be sufficient, if the interest is in pollution with the street canyon. However, time dependent and problem specific lateral boundary values need to be provided. UHAM also employed M-SYS with different resolutions to a high-ozone phase in the Ruhr area. Their studies, performed with emission data of the resolution of 7 km show that 12 km resolution results have more smooth ozone distributions than the 4 km ones. This is mainly a result of the more detailed consideration of influences of orography (mountainous area - Mittelgebirge) on the flow field. Also, the maximum values are in average somewhat higher for the higher resolution. Satellite observations allow top-down estimates of emissions to be made for nitrogen oxides (NOx=NO+NO2). However, this generally requires - poorly quantified - a-priori information on the NOx lifetime. At MPI, a method was developed which allows the simultaneous determination of megacity NOx emissions and lifetimes from satellite measurements by analyzing the downwind patterns of NO2 separately for different wind conditions (Beirle et al., 2011). Daytime lifetimes are found to be ~4 hours at low and mid-latitudes, but ~8 hours in wintertime for Moscow. The derived NOx emissions are generally in good agreement with existing emission inventories, but are higher by a factor of 3 for the Saudi-Arabian capital Riyadh (Fig. 5.4).



(a) (b) (c) Figure 5.4. Wind dependency of NO2 column densities around Riyadh, (a) Mean NO2 tropospheric columns

(cloud free, calm) in the Middle East from OMI measurements during 2005-2009; (b) Mean NO2 column densities around Riyadh (white cross) for different wind conditions, i.e. calm (center panel) and 8 main wind direction sectors (surrounding panels; arrows indicate the mean of the respective ECMWF winds); and (c) Downwind evolution of NO2. Light colors: Zonally integrated NO2 column densities for westerly (blue) and easterly (red) winds as function of the distance to Riyadh City Center. Dark colors: Fitted downwind plume. The numbers indicate the mean wind velocities from ECMWF (w) and the resulting lifetimes. (Beirle et al.,

2011)


Deliverable 5.3 - Evaluation and improvement of regional model simulations of megacity plumes

The deliverable includes results from MEGAPOLI regional ensemble simulations, results from an extensive model review exercise, simulations using the LOTOS-EUROS model for Paris, and long-term simulations using the Enviro-HIRLAM model for the Paris metropolitan area. The MEGAPOLI regional ensemble simulations covered the intense campaign in Paris in 2009, as well as the ensemble simulations over the baseline year 2005. Five regional models have submitted their data for the campaign period of 2009 (CHIMERE, FARM, LOTOS-EUROS, SILAM, and WRF-CMAQ). Computations for 2005 were performed and supplied for the comparison and ensemble analyses by four models (CHIMERE, FARM, SILAM and LOTOS-EUROS). In addition to the general similarity of the patterns computed with the above-mentioned models, the inter-comparison showed the systematic differences between the model predictions, which were of the same order of magnitude than the differences between the individual models and the observations. The reasons for the particular behaviour of each model are time-, region-, and model- specific and have to be analysed separately for each episode. A series of ensemble based estimates have been generated based on the individual datasets: simple ones, such as arithmetic average and median, as well as observation based adaptive estimates using the Airbase observations. Sofiev M., M. Prank, J. Kukkonen (Eds) (2011): Evaluation and Improvement of Regional Model Simulations for Megacity Plumes. Deliverable D5.3, MEGAPOLI Scientific Report 11-04, MEGAPOLI-30-REP-2011-03, 88p, ISBN: 978-87-92731-08-1


Deliverable 5.4 - Prediction of megacity impact on regional and global atmospheric composition In this deliverable a wide spectrum of studies investigating the megacities plumes dispersion characteristics and their impact are reported following the work done under tasks 5.4.1, 5.4.2 and 5.4.3 by several institutions. At the global scale several aspect have been investigated including: (i) the impact of the plumes on global atmospheric composition, (ii) the ability of the plumes to reach and deposit in sensitive remote regions of the Earth and (iii) concentration maps resulting from the megacities plumes have been combined with a population map, to generate simple measures of the impact on population. A publication of this study is currently being prepared for submission to a peer-reviewed journal. The regional studies, evaluated the import-export budget of Paris, the Po Valley and other large European cities to the surrounding regions.



More in detail three contributions presented in the report include: (i) A detailed computations of Paris downtown area inflow/outflow budget, ii) an evaluation of the effect of artificial redistribution of emissions between the urban and rural areas in Europe and (iii) the evaluation of the effect of emission reduction scenarios in the Po Valley.

Cassiani M., Stohl S., Eckhardt S., Sovief M., Prank M., Butler T., Lawrence M., Collins W.J., Folberth G.A., Rumbold S., Pyle J.A., Russo M.R., Stock Z., Siour G., Coll I., D’Allura A., Finardi S., Radice P., Silibello C. (2011): Prediction of Megacities Impact on Regional and Global Atmospheric Composition. Deliverable D5.4, MEGAPOLI Scientific Report 11-11, MEGAPOLI-37-REP-2011-06, 55p, ISBN: 978-87-92731-15-9 http://megapoli.dmi.dk/publ/MEGAPOLI_sr11-11.pdf

Deliverable 5.5 - Influence of regional scale emissions on megacity air quality This deliverable provides complementary information on regional- and global-scale anthropogenic and non-anthropogenic emissions, which affect the urban air quality due to regional- and large-scale atmospheric dispersion. The sources of importance for non-anthropogenic pollution could be: biogenic organic compounds, biomass burning smoke, wind-blown dust, and sea salt. Depending on the regions and specific episodes, one or more of these sources can be dominant. Several inventories exist for each of these sources but extreme temporal variability of these sources limit the value of these inventories. Therefore, the work concentrated on actual modelling of these emission fluxes and resulting concentrations of the released pollutants. This report provides examples of the systematic impact of the above sources throughout the world, as well as concentrates on specific episodes, such as 2010 wild-land fires in Russia. The example of anthropogenic regional sources affecting the “megacity” is made on the basis of Po Valley. Sofiev M., M. Prank and A. Baklanov (Eds) (2011): Influence of Regional Scale Emissions on Megacity Air Quality. Deliverable D5.5, MEGAPOLI Scientific Report 11-12, MEGAPOLI-38-REP-2011-06, 28p, ISBN: 978-87-92731-16-6 http://megapoli.dmi.dk/publ/MEGAPOLI_sr11-12.pdf

Deliverable 5.6 - Influence of North American megacities on European atmospheric composition is

ready and available from the MEGAPOLI public website. The deliverable reports the work done within task 5.5.2 by NILU. In this deliverable the results of the study of a large data set of carbon monoxide (CO) and Ozone (O3) measurements was combined with extensive FLEXPART simulations to examine the influence of Asian and North American emissions, with a special focus on the east coast megalopolis of Bosnywash (Boston, New York, Washington), on the chemical composition of the atmosphere over Europe. For O3 and CO it is verified that European samples are associated with the highest measured values, except during wintertime for O3. The samples associated with the Bosnywash megacity region contain higher measured O3 than samples associated with the North American region overall during summer in Mace Head, while the same is true in the winter at Zugspitze and in the MOZAIC dataset. A publication of these results is in preparation for a peer-reviewed journal. Eckhardt S., M. Cassiani, A. Stohl (2011): Influence of North American Megacities on European Atmospheric Composition. Deliverable D5.6, MEGAPOLI Scientific Report 11-10, MEGA-POLI-36-REP-2011-06, 28p, ISBN: 978-87-92731-14-2 http://megapoli.dmi.dk/publ/MEGAPOLI_sr11-10.pdf

Deliverable 5.7 - Estimate of megacity impacts in a future climate

In this report the impact of megacities on air quality measured by their impact on surface ozone and PM10 concentrations in a future climate have been assessed following the work done within task 5.6 by the MetOffice. The study is conducted with the Met Office Hadley Centre’s global Earth System Model HadGEM2.



Folberth G.A., S. Rumbold, W.J. Collins, T. Butler (2011): Estimate of Megacity Impacts in a Future Climate. Deliverable D5.7, MEGAPOLI Scientific Report 11-09, MEGAPOLI-35-REP-2011-06, 21p, ISBN: 978-87-92731-13-5 http://megapoli.dmi.dk/publ/MEGAPOLI_sr11-09.pdf

The WP4 all Tasks, except finalized earliear Task 5.1, were continued during the reporting period.

In particular, Task 5.4.1 continued during the second and third year FMI carried on a detailed computations of Paris downtown area inflow/outflow budget using the SILAM modelling system, Laboratoire Interuniversitaire des Systèmes (LISA) evaluated the effect of artificial redistribution of emissions between the urban and rural areas in Europe, and ARIANET evaluated the effect of the emission reduction scenarios in the Po Valley. The tasks 5.4.2 and 5.4.3, 5.5.2 and 5.6 regarding the current and future global scale effects of megacities started in the second year and continued during the third year. Tasks 5.4.2. and 5.4.3 were carried out for the full set of megacities selected for the MEGAPOLI project for the baseline year (2005). Within task 5.4.3 various characteristic of the megacity pollution plumes have been investigated at the Norwegian Institute for air research (NILU) using FLEXPART model and concentration and population map have been combined to generate simple measures of the impact on population (results are ported in deliverable 5.4 and a paper is under preparation). Within task 5.4.2, The Max Planck Institute for Chemistry (MPIC), the University of Cambridge (UCam) and the UK MetOffice performed an extensive study of global atmospheric chemical composition. Most of the work consisted of global scale simulations with atmospheric chemistry and transport models using full chemistry, coupled either online or offline with meteorological models (MATCH-MPIC, the UK MetOffice Unified Model version 7.3 and the HadGEM2 model). Within task 5.5.2 carried out by NILU, 13 years (1996-2009) of O3 and 7 years of CO measurements from the MOZAIC program and data from the mountain station Zugspitze and the coastal station Mace Head were analyzed. The source regions influencing the measurements were determined using backward calculations with the FLEXPART model and based on an assignment criterion the influence on the measurement of the megacity of Boston-New York-Washington was determined. In task 5.6 carried out by MetOffice the impact of megacities on air quality measured by their impact on surface ozone and PM10 concentrations in a future climate was investigated using the MetOffice Model HadGEM2. Two simulations have been conducted each spanning over 11 model years. The emission inventories for all global WP5 studies are based on the so-called “Representative Concentration Pathways” (RCPs). In the studies the RCP8.5 scenario for the 2050s has been used. In addition to the previous reporting for Task 5.1, the MPIC team has developed an aerosols correction scheme. This is of special importance for highly polluted regions, because aerosols can both increase (mainly scattering aerosols) or decrease (absorbing aerosols) the sensitivity of the satellite instrument towards tropospheric trace gases

Task 5.1: Application of satellite data to characterize the regional-to-global scale impact of megacities (lead: MPIC)

In October 2006 the first of a series of three GOME-2 instruments was launched on a board the METOP satellite. Based on the retrieval algorithms for GOME-1 and SCIAMACHY the MPIC team developed a spectral retrieval method for the analysis of the atmospheric NO2 absorption in the GOME-2 spectra. The one-year mean map of tropospheric NO2 shows the high sensitivity and consistency of the GOME-2 analysis. A new, improved method for the estimation of the stratospheric part of the total NO2 column was developed, making use of the alternating SCIAMACHY nadir/limb viewing geometries (Beirle et al., 2010). The retrieval of tropospheric information from satellite observations is challenging, mainly because of the strong influence of aerosols and clouds. In addition, also the (relative) vertical



concentration profile of the measured trace species has a large impact on the resulting tropospheric column density. A sophisticated cloud correction scheme (e.g. Chen et al., 2009) was developed by the MPIC team. This correction is based on simultaneously retrieved cloud information (effective cloud fraction and cloud top height) in combination with radiative transfer modelling. Validation of tropospheric trace gas results from satellite observations is a complex task, because well suited ground-based observations are still sparse. Moreover, a large variability (in time and space) of tropospheric trace gas concentrations complicates the validation activities. The tropospheric trace gas product (from SCIAMACHY) of MPIC was successfully validated over strongly polluted areas (Shanghai, China; Chen et al., 2009). During the MEGAPOLI campaign in Paris (Jul 2009), the mobile MAX-DOAS observations, which allow us to investigate the effect of the spatial heterogeneity of the trace gas concentrations within a satellite ground pixel, were carried out. In addition, by encircling the city, the total emission fluxes can directly be quantified (Shaiganfar et al. 2011; a respective study for the results for Paris is in preparation). Additionally, routine ground based measurements of NO2 from the Johannesburg/Pretoria conurbation and the Highveld industrial area in South Africa were compared with measurements from the SCIAMACHY and OMI satellite instruments (Lourens et al., 2011). It was found that the overpass times of the satellite instruments (10:00 and 13:30 respectively) led to a systematic underestimation of the satellite-measured urban NO2 concentration relative to the concentration over the Highveld, as the large contribution to the urban NO2 concentration from traffic emissions was not captured. In recent years several studies investigated the spatial-temporal variation of the global tropospheric NO2 distribution by fitting predescribed functions for linear trends, seasonal and/or weekly cycles to the satellite observations. This method was extended using a very flexible approach of generalised additive models (GAM). Using this toolset makes, in particular, possible to investigate the influence of wind fields on local distributions of tropospheric NO2 (Hayn et al., 2009). Focussing on Megacities, a new method has been developed which allows to independently determine emissions and lifetimes of NOx simultaneously from analysing the downwind evolution of the NO2 plume (Beirle et al., 2011). This was achieved by sorting OMI observations with respect to the wind direction. The FMI and UHel teams have compared CALIOP level 2 aerosol subtypes to aerosol types derived from AERONET inversion data (Mielonen et al., 2009).

Task 5.2: Improvement of the regional and global CTMs to simulate megacities and their effects (lead: FORTH)

An extensive review article is in progress on operational chemical weather forecasting (CWF) models on regional and continental scales (acknowledged: COST Action ES0602 and MEGAPOLI), coordinated by FMI and MEGAPOLI scientists are also coauthors. This article will contain an evaluation of the physical and chemical treatments of most of the regional scale models to be used in MEGAPOLI (Kukkonen et al., 2009). Work has started at TNO to make improvements on the LOTOS-EUROS model to be better equipped to model the effect on air quality of megacities on the regional scale (Manders et al., 2009ab; Schaap et al., 2009). The chemical modules of the SILAM model have been refined; the CB-4 mechanism has been implemented. For Tasks 5.2-4, the DMI team is running the online Enviro-HIRLAM model for the European region (P15 domain, see links, info and attached file on: http://megapoliforum.dmi.dk/index.php?topic=58.0) with TNO emissions. There will be relevant up-to-date information also in the final reporting of the COST 728 Action, coordinated by the UH-CAIR, and resulting from the collaboration with a new ERC project: "Atmospheric planetary boundary layers: physics, modelling and role in Earth system“,



coordinator Sergej Zilitinkevich (UHel and FMI). The DMI and FMI teams have improved the urbanization of regional scale dispersion models, the modules for sea salt emissions, forest fire emissions (Sofiev et al., 2009ab) and oxidation products. In collaboration of DMI, FMI and UHel, work is in progress for combining Enviro-HIRLAM and SILAM (FMI) dispersion models and the aerosol process model SALSA (FMI and UHel). The UH-CAIR team is working on the CMAQ model to include a specific approach for BC on London area (sensitivity test); improvement on emissions inventory (time modulation and vertical profiles); operationalize the system, and satellite and ground based dataset integration (focus on vertical profiles of aerosol species). UH-CAIR has focussed on the improvement of the regional CTM to simulate megacities and their effect by using deliverable D1.2. A base year-2005 MEGAPOLI European gridded inventory (1st version) prepared by TNO in WP1 is being used for the WRF-CMAQ modelling system in task 5.2. The Sparse Matrix Operator Kernel Emissions (SMOKE) created by the MCNC Environmental Modelling Centre (EMC) is employed for TNO emissions data processing to the WRF-CMAQ system. The purpose of SMOKE is to convert the TNO emission inventory data to the resolution needed by the WRF-CMAQ modelling system. TNO emission inventories are available with an annual-total emissions value for each SNAP sector of each European country. SMOKE emissions processing involves transforming TNO emission inventory through temporal allocation, chemical speciation, and spatial allocation to achieve the input requirements of the WRF-CMAQ. UH-CAIR is utilizing SMOKE version 2.4/2.6 installed in Hector, UK National supercomputing service to prepare the TNO emission. Temporal profiles for the TNO emission according to that used in SILAM model by FMI has been prepared. UH-CAIR has initiated WRF model simulation for the July 2009 Paris Campaign study using the ECMWF initial and lateral boundary conditions.WRF model V3.1.1 is being run on the two-way nested option with horizontal resolution of 18 kms and an inner domain with horizontal resolution of 6 kms which covers the entire Europe and central Europe, respectively. The MPI team works on the box modelling experiments using MECCA, with focus on hydrocarbons chemistry and ozone production potentials. The chemistry schemes in the global models used at MPIC and MetO have been substantially improved and extended (e.g., Folberth et al., 2009ab) and, for instance, oxidation pathways have been studied (Butler, 2009). The effect of megacities on the chemistry of the global atmosphere has been determined (Butler and Lawrence, 2009). FLEXPART, used at NILU, has been extended to allow treatment of simple aerosol-like tracers, which in addition to pure transport, are subject to removal processes (dry and wet deposition). This improved model version has been extensively used to obtain the results reported in deliverable 5.6 and 5.4 where both a conserved tracer and tracer subject to atmospheric removal processes have been investigated. UHam has extended the model system M-SYS by introducing anthropogenic heat emissions and studied their effects on heat island circulations (see Task 2.3). Furthermore, the model system was applied to the Ruhr area with different resolutions to study effects of different resolution on resulting ozone values. Their studies, performed with emission data of a 7 km resolution show that for the higher 4 km resolution the ozone concentration fields are not only more heterogeneous but also the peak concentrations are higher than for 12 km resolution. This is mainly a result of the more detailed consideration of influences of orography (mountainous area - Mittelgebirge) on the flow field.

Task 5.3: Evaluation of the current capability of regional CTMs to predict megacity plumes (lead: FMI).

The model evaluation was performed on the basis of multi-model ensemble built out of the MEGAPOLI regional chemistry transport modeling pool. The Paris campaign period has been simulated and the results were submitted for the analysis by 5 modelling teams: CHIMERE



(LISA), FARM (Arianet), LOTOS-EUROS (TNO), SILAM (FMI), and WRF-CMAQ (UH). The year 2005 computations were submitted by four groups: CHIMERE (LISA), FARM (Arianet), LOTOS-EUROS (TNO), and SILAM (FMI). An outlook of the models and their features can be found in the MEGAPOLI report for Deliverable 7.2 by H.Schlünzen et al. An outlook of most of the models used in MEGAPOLI (including Enviro-HIRLAM, FARM, LOTOS-EUROS, SILAM and WRF-CMAQ) can be found in Kukkonen et al. (2011). FMI has provided the ftp facility and hosted the dataset. The model predicted fields have been treated by the Ensemble Analysis Toolset developed in FMI. This tool comprises a set of software instruments for the model comparison with observations, inter-comparison with each other, as well as for the generation of both observation-independent and adaptive ensemble based estimates. An outlook of the model results confirms the conclusions from the model ensembles analysed within the scope of other activities (such as COST-728 and AQMEII): the models tend to provide comparable predictions for the species routinely observed and verified – over the areas where such validation is established (i.e., near the surface). These are gases, such as SO2, NO2, NH3, O3, some aerosols, such as sulphates and nitrates. More differences were observed for aerosol compounds. The biggest differences were found for rarely evaluated components, such as HCHO, and for non-observable variables, such as dry deposition, which showed the largest scatter.

Task 5.4: Determination of the impact of megacities on regional and global atmospheric composition (lead: FMI, MPIC, NILU)

This task includes a study of megacity pollutant dispersion characteristics (task 5.4.3, led by NILU) and a study of the global impact of megacities on global atmospheric composition (task 5.4.2, led by MPIC). A third task deals with the study of regional impacts of megacities using regional scale models, with which only a selected sub-set of megacities have been investigated (task 5.4.1, led by FMI).

Task 5.4.1: For the regional scale study, multi-domain and multi-scale nested simulations combined with application of various emission scenarios performed with the SILAM, CHIMERE and FARM models have provided an insight into the quantitative estimation of the impact of the major European urban agglomerations to the air quality all over the continent. The applications have also highlighted the main pollutants for which the impact is the largest and also pointed towards the possible means of measuring the impact. LISA carried out an evaluation of a series of scenarios examining the regional-scale emission redistribution to quantify the impact of the current geographical density of emission fluxes from urban areas in comparison with the same emissions being collected into a few major emitting points or spread nearly homogeneously over the corresponding country area. The experiment with redistribution of emissions from very dense to very diffuse patterns showed that the national emission distributions are one of the main elements influencing the structure of ozone, NOx, and CO pollution over Europe. Geographically, the impact of every specific city appeared quite local as plumes dilute fast over the continental regions with lower emissions. ARIANET performed a detailed multi-scale nested grid simulation focused on the Po Valley megacity for the baseline year 2005. Different emissions scenarios were investigated to understand the local and regional role of this megacity: a base case with MEGAPOLI 2005 emissions, Po Valley anthropogenic emissions reduced by 50% and Po Valley “annihilation”. Generally results show that large variations of near surface concentration are limited to the Po Valley and the northern Adriatic Sea but the variations among the pollutants and specific episodes are wide. The analysis gives evidence of a linear response for CO and a similar behaviour for PM2.5 and NO2, although with significant differences between winter and summer. The response of ozone to emission variations is complex and strongly non-linear. The FMI carried out nested regional simulations using the SILAM model with two chemical mechanisms and two meteorological input datasets to quantify the budget of the megacity of Paris at four different distances from the downtown



area, for the period of summer 2009. The study demonstrated that the NOx, primary PM, anthropogenic VOCs, and their direct chemical derivatives are exported by the city, with the inflow being smaller than the outflow by a factor of 1.5-5 depending on the substance. Two clearly imported parameters were identified by the simulations: sulphuric acid and sea salt. The budget for CO and O3 appeared strongly dependent by the vertical characteristics of production, loss and transport regimes, with a wide variety of mechanisms involved. Being integrated over the whole column, the budget for both species appeared to be positive, i.e. the city is a net exporter of both pollutants but it is very likely that the budget will depend on the season.

Task 5.4.2: The Max Planck Institute for Chemistry, the University of Cambridge and the UK MetOffice performed modelling studies of the atmospheric composition change due to the presence of the megacities, both in the region surrounding each city and globally. Annihilation and redistribution scenarios have been investigated to understand the impact of megacities. The MPIC concluded that the total impact of megacities on the global tropospheric ozone burden is modest compared to the emission fraction of ozone precursors emitted by the megacities. They also found that a 25% redistribution in the emissions away from megacities leads to an increase in the surface O3 mixing ratio of model grid cells containing megacities. This titration effect is most pronounced during the winter. UK Met Office found that megacities appear to cause an increase in ozone over almost the entire global domain of 1 ppbv. Several “hot spots” were found for an annihilation scenario where surface ozone increases by well over 5 ppbv reaching peak levels of nearly 10 ppbv. These hot spots coincide with the megacities Dhaka, Jakarta and Honkong as defined by the megacity mask used in MEGAPOLI. On the contrary, Moscow, London and the Ruhr Valley industrial agglomeration appear to reduce surface ozone concentrations. Globally, the annual mean tropospheric ozone burden is found to amount to 348.9±0.7 Tg(O3) and of these 2.1±0.01 Tg(O3) (or about 0.6%, very similar to the MATCH-MPIC results) are found to be due to the emission of pollutants from megacities. The investigation of PM10 showed that the local impact of megacities on PM10 normally varies between 1 and 3 μg m-3, and is even larger for Dhaka. However, the impact appears very localized and limited to the immediate environment in most cases. Overall, most of the global domain is found to be unaffected by megacities. University of Cambridge studied the effect of a 100% redistribution of megacities emissions to the country surrounding each megacity. It was found that this redistribution results in a reduction of CO and NOx in the megacity grid cells and an increase across the megacity’s host country. These regional increases are consistent with emissions being spread into areas surrounding megacities. The changes in NOx are of the order of a few ppb, although in megacity centers the differencereaches up to 58 ppb. It was also found that the effects of the redistribution scenario on individual megacities depends not only on local emission changes, but also on changes to the local chemical regime and whether the regime is sensitive to NOx or VOC changes in terms of ozone production.

Task 5.4.3: NILU studied the transport, deposition and impact on population of black carbon emissions from the world’s megacities. To characterize transport, the distances of the centres of mass from the initial release points were examined as functions of the age (i.e., time since the initial release). Initially and if deposition is neglected, the plumes subject to a faster transport are those emitted at higher latitudes and associated therefore with European and North American megacities, while the plumes emitted at low latitudes by tropical/sub-tropical megacities have the slowest initial transport. Asian megacities of intermediate latitude have in general intermediate characteristics. However, for longer elapsed times after release, this reverses: plumes originating at lower latitudes are then transported farther compared to mid and high latitude plumes. The inclusion of deposition makes it very difficult to categorize the average transport of the plumes, but the simulations show that for very short and long dispersion times the removal processes have a somewhat stronger effect in limiting the average horizontal transport for high latitude European cities. The e-folding removal time scale for the megacity plumes range from about 1 day for Jakarta to more than 10 days for Cairo. The deposition in the



polar regions was also investigated. It was quantitatively confirmed that megacities in Europe are the most significant contributors to deposition of BC in the Arctic, regardless of whether considering the yearly values or only the winter values of deposition. Roughly speaking, one gram of emission of BC from Saint Petersburg is responsible for deposition in the arctic equivalent to 30 grams emitted from Beijing, 100 grams emitted from Seoul and 200 grams from Shanghai. The pollution concentrations multiplied with population densities gave a first order exposure estimate: although for most cities, the impact on the population within the city boundaries is considerably larger than on the population downwind, especially for short-lived pollutants, it is found that for long-lived, insoluble pollutants (with lifetimes of a week to a month), there are 5-10 cities for which the impact on downwind populations even exceeds the exposure of the populations of the cities themselves.

Task 5.5: The influence of non-urban pollution sources in megacities, and intercontinental transport (lead: DMI, NILU, FMI)

Task 5.5.1: The study of the regional-scale influence on the megacity air quality included the analysis of the biomass burning episodes, and a sea-salt aerosol contribution considered as a prominent example of the non-anthropogenic aerosols. One of the worst episodes of deterioration of the urban air quality due to regional- and large-scale pollution emission and transport occurred in summer 2010 during the heat wave in Russia. Anomalously high temperatures over Central and Western parts of Russia resulted in widespread wild-land fires, which lasted for several weeks. The situation was worsened by apparent unpreparedness and lack of competence of authorities, fire-fighting and rescue services. What regards to air quality, the resulted concentrations of harmful pollutants exceeded long-term records over most of Central and Western Russia and in a few cases resulted in strong but limited in time deterioration of air quality in the region and neighbouring countries. Thus, the peak hourly concentration in Moscow during day 6.8.2010 was 1.3 mg PM10 m-3 (SILAM prediction was 1.5mg PM10 m-3). These extremely high values exceed the own contribution of the city by a factor of 10-100. Further development of the transport is presented in Figure 5 for 8 August 2010, when the record values were observed in Virolahti station (Finland): over 140 μg m-3 (SILAM prediction was 120 μg m-3). The impact of sea salt on the urban air quality is limited but quite persistent in the near-coast cities and megacities. Its impact was estimated by the MEGAPOLI modelling ensemble for 2005. It was confirmed that, despite the quite substantial deviations between the models, they were quite consistent in predicting noticeable contribution of sea salt for all near-coast cities. For instance, the 95-th percentile of the sea salt concentrations throughout the year 2005 was at a level of 5 μg m-3 over Paris (as predicted by the model ensemble), i.e. during 9 days in 2005 the sae salt concentration in Paris exceeded this level. For individual models, this percentile varies from about 3 up to 10 μg m-3. Task 5.5.2: In this study carried out by NILU the influence of Asian and North American emissions, with a special focus on the North American east coast megalopolis of Bosnywash (Boston, New York, Washington), on the chemical composition of the atmosphere over Europe has been investigated. Thirteen years (1996-2009) of O3 and 7 years of CO measurements from the MOZAIC program taken during ascent and descent from European airports of commercial airliners equipped with instruments measuring meteorological parameters as well as some trace gases. Additionally data from the mountain station Zugspitze and the coastal station Mace Head have been investigated. The data record from both stations goes from 1995 to 2009. The source regions influencing the measurements were determined with the Lagrangian particle dispersion model FLEXPART using a total of 8 billion 20-day back trajectories. Using the EDGAR emission inventory and the FLEXPART backward calculations, CO concentrations could be derived from the backward model output. The MOZAIC measurements were grouped according to the dominant source regions based on the model calculations, distinguishing between measurements dominated by European, North American and Asian emissions, respectively.



Within North America, the air masses with a strong influence from the east coast megalopolis of Bosnywash were also identified; out of all measurements those dominated by North American samples take a share of about 20% and the Bosnywash regions is dominant for 3% of the total air samples. Therefore, given that the emissions of Bosnywash represent about 12% of the total North American emissions, their influence on European air samples is proportionally slightly higher than their share of North American emission. However, overall the Bosnywash area is shown to have a relatively weak influence on the European atmosphere, without any significant above average concentration event observed in association with Bosnywash related samples. Moreover, in most of the cases the behavior of air samples assigned to Bosnywash cannot be distinguished in any way from the overall North American influence. A scientific publication for submission to the peer reviewed literature describing our results is under preparation.

Task 5.6: Megacity impacts in the future (lead: MetO, FMI, NILU) This investigation started started in beginning of teh 2nd year, and the results are reported in deliverable 5.7. The study was conducted with the Met Office Hadley Centre Earth System Model HadGEM2 (c.f., Collins et al., 2008). Two simulations have been conducted with HadGEM2 each spanning over 11 model years. The megacity impact is analysed from a pair of simulations, the control simulation which includes all emissions of pollutants from megacities and a simulation in which the annihilation scenario was applied, i.e., the emission inventory with the megacity mask from Butler et al., 2008 applied is used in the model experiment. The emission inventories are based on the RCP8.5 scenario (Riahi et al, 2007) for the 2050s. The climate in the simulations with HadGEM2 has been driven by solar orbital forcing (c.f., Collins et al, 2008), sea surface temperatures (SST) and sea ice cover (SIC) representative for the 2050s. SST and SIC data were provided by the bicentennial transient climate simulation conducted with HadGEM2 for the CMIP5 model intercomparison which has been conducted in preparation for the next IPCC assessment report. A second set of simulations has been performed that analyse the impact of megacities on present day atmospheric composition (c.f., MEGAPOLI scientific report Deliverable 5.4). The impact of megacities is measured as the increase in surface ozone and PM10 concentrations. For ozone, a non-zero but weak impact was found for pollutant emissions under future conditions, which extends over most of the northern hemisphere. There appear to be very few “hot spots” at which the increase in ozone exceeds 1 ppbv. Those megacities, that do show a bigger than 1 ppbv impact, include Mexico City, Los Angeles, Lagos, Mumbai, and Hong Kong. The biggest impact under future conditions is found for the megacity that corresponds to Bangladesh. Comparing the impact of megacities in a future climate with the impact under present-day conditions it becomes evident that the impact on surface ozone concentrations under future conditions is significantly reduced according to the RCP8.5 scenarios for 2005 and 2050. Overall, a clear trend for a diminishing impact of megacities on surface ozone is apparent. The total annual mean tropospheric ozone burden for 2050 amounts to 359.6±0.6 Tg(O3). Megacities are computed to contribute 1.0±0.01 Tg(O3) or roughly 0.3% to the total burden. A comparison with model simulations conducted for present-day (2005) conditions shows that while the total tropospheric ozone burden increases the impact of megacities becomes significantly smaller. This finding is consistent with the reduction in megacity pollutant emissions of roughly 50% in case of most of the species in the RCP8.5 scenarios. The impact of megacities on the concentration of particulate matter follows a similar pattern. Under future conditions total near-surface PM10 is below the 20 μg m-3 limit (measured as an annual mean concentration) that has been used as an indicator for potential air quality issues. A sizable impact on PM10 is limited to only a few megacities and only to the immediate environment surrounding these areas. The biggest impact is found for the Bangladesh agglomeration. Comparing future PM10 concentrations and the contribution of megacities on these the study shows a similar significant reduction in both total surface concentrations and in



the contribution of megacities. The only exception is Bangladesh, a substantial increase in the impact of megacities was found.


The regional model ensemble simulations for the intense campaign in Paris in 2009, as well as in the baseline year 2005, were conducted. Five regional models submitted their data for the campaign period of 2009 (CHIMERE, FARM, LOTOS-EUROS, SILAM, and WRF-CMAQ). Computations for 2005 were performed and supplied for the comparison and ensemble analyses by four models (CHIMERE, FARM, SILAM and LOTOS-EUROS). The observational dataset for the model-measurement comparison and adaptive ensemble treatment included: (i) the results of the Paris campaign, (ii) a complete set of in-situ observations available from the Airbase data bank managed by the European Environmental Agency, and (iii) AIRPARIF observations. A series of ensemble based estimates have been generated based on the individual datasets: simple ones, such as arithmetic average and median, as well as observation based adaptive estimates using the Airbase observations. The presented multi-model ensemble has allowed:

• to perform an objective inter-comparison of the predictions of the participating models, • to estimate the extent to which the predictions of the individual models can be improved

by means of multi-model ensemble and • to compare different methods of the ensemble treatment to find out the relative strengths

and weaknesses of each method. It was demonstrated that application of even simple ensemble based estimates leads to improvement of the predictions. However, the effect varies among the compounds. The strongest improvement was obtained for optimising ensemble treatment applied to PM2.5 and PM10. This model inter-comparison showed that the differences between the model predictions were of the same order of magnitude than the differences between the individual models and the observations. The models tend to provide comparable predictions for the species that are routinely observed and evaluated near the ground surface. These are gases, such as SO2, NO2, NH3, O3, and some chemical components of aerosols, such as sulphates and nitrates. More substantial differences between the model predictions were observed for aerosol compounds. For the Paris 2009-07 period, two simulations were performed with the LOTOS-EUROS model. The first run used the 2005 ‘base’ emissions, and the second one used the ‘nested mega-cities’ emissions, which is basically a re-distribution of emissions between the mega-cities and the surrounding country. The simulations using the nested emissions were relatively in a better agreement with the observations, i.e., model simulations benefit from emission inventories based on nesting information from local inventories. To investigate the impact of the computational grid resolution to air quality simulations, the air quality in Central Europe for July 2009 was simulated with the SILAM model using four different model setups, with variable resolutions. For most species, the differences between the predictions computed using the various model setups in the out-of-grid transport and total dry and wet deposition in the whole domain during the computations were below 10%. The DMI evaluated the possible effects of elevated pollutant concentrations from megacities on the meteorology on the regional scale. By comparing model runs with and without the indirect effects it was found that a monthly averaged signal in surface temperature of about 0.5°C exists. In particular the indirect effects led to stronger convection and heavier precipitation in some



places and suppression of precipitation in other places. On individual days the maximum and minimum changes were up to 5ºC. PMCAMx was used to simulate air quality in the Mexico City Metropolitan Area (MCMA) during March of 2006 (MILAGRO study period). The model results of PMCAMx were compared against measurements from 3 ground sites in the Paris Greater Area. PMCAMx predictions agreed reasonably well with the AMS measurements. Methods that include a combination of weather forecasting and atmospheric chemistry simulations are here referred to as chemical weather forecasting (CWF). 18 operational CWF models on regional and continental scales in Europe for a more detailed analysis were selected. This selection of models includes most of the models used in MEGAPOLI (such as Enviro-HIRLAM, FARM, LOTOS-EUROS, SILAM and WRF-CMAQ). The information in a structured form, and inter-compared and evaluated the mathematical structure of these models was collected. This information makes it possible to evaluate the relative advantages and limitations of the various modelling systems, modelling approaches and sub-models. The most prominent gaps of knowledge in this field were surveyed, and suggested potential priorities for future research directions. The impact of the major European megacities and urban agglomerations to the surrounding regions can be evaluated with the following methods: (i) estimate the import-export budget of an urban area, so that the net exported pollutants will be a measure of its impact on the surrounding regions and net imported species will highlight the chemical and deposition sinks, (ii) evaluate a series of what-if scenarios about the large-scale emission redistribution and (iii) compute the impact of emission control actions of the cities on their surroundings. The FMI carried out nested regional simulations using the SILAM model with two chemical mechanisms and two meteorological input datasets to quantify the budget of the megacity of Paris at four different distances from the downtown area, for the period of summer 2009. It is demonstrated that the NOx, primary PM, anthropogenic VOCs, and their direct chemical derivatives are exported by the city, with the inflow being smaller than the outflow by a factor of 1.5-5 depending on the substance. LISA carried out an evaluation of a series of scenarios examining the regional-scale emission redistribution. The experiment with redistribution of emissions from very dense to very diffuse patterns showed that the national emission distributions are one of the main elements influencing the structure of ozone, NOx, and CO pollution over Europe. It was found with computations using the CHIMERE model that the formation of megacities always leads to an intensification of the regional primary plumes, and to an increase of the ozone production rate by a factor of 1.5-2 in the most condensed scenario. The analysis of the Po Valley emission effects (iii) on the surrounding European region was performed with the FARM modelling system on the basis of several emission reduction scenarios. It is shown that large variations of near surface concentration are limited to the Po Valley and the northern Adriatic Sea, but the variations between the pollutants and specific episodes are wide. The regional- and global-scale anthropogenic and non-anthropogenic emissions, which affect the urban air quality due to regional- and large-scale atmospheric dispersion, were evaluated. The sources of importance for non-anthropogenic pollution could be: biogenic organic compounds, biomass burning smoke, wind-blown dust, and sea salt. Depending on the regions and specific episodes, one or more of these sources can be dominant. The impacts of specific episodes, such as the wild-land fires in Russia in 2010, was also analysed. The example of anthropogenic regional sources affecting the “megacity” was made for Po Valley.



Socio-economic relevance and policy implications A new PM2.5 limit value has been proposed though the CAFÉ process to strengthen the current PM10 limit value (COM(2005) 446 final). In our opinion, the improved and better evaluated modeling methods that will result from MEGAPOLI will be crucial in the implementation of this directive. The changes of limit values and for instance, the physical measures to be selected in the future directives for particulate matter (e.g., PM2.5, PM0.1, particle number concentrations, etc.), should evidently rely on a sound understanding of emissions of aerosols and precursors as well as atmospheric processes over a range of scales.

Discussion and conclusion There has been substantial progress in developing and evaluating the satellite-based methods, especially for the measurement of tropospheric gases, and also some progress in case of aerosols. An extensive review is in progress on operational chemical weather forecasting models on regional and continental scales; the aim of this activity is to evaluate and analyze the advantages and limitations of individual models used. Substantial progress has been achieved regarding the development of individual models towards an improved evaluation of the impacts of megacities. The representation of chemical processes has been improved substantially in the global models.

List of WP reports, publications, presentations Baklanov A., M. Lawrence, S. Pandis, A. Mahura, S. Finardi, N. Moussiopoulos, M. Beekmann, P. Laj, L.

Gomes, J.-L. Jaffrezo, A. Borbon, I. Coll, V. Gros, J. Sciare, J. Kukkonen, S. Galmarini, F. Giorgi, S. Grimmond, I. Esau, A. Stohl, B. Denby, T. Wagner, T. Butler, U. Baltensperger, P. Builtjes, D. van den Hout, H. D. van der Gon, B. Collins, H. Schluenzen, M. Kulmala, S. Zilitinkevich, R. Sokhi, R. Friedrich, J. Theloke, U. Kummer, L. Jalkinen, T. Halenka, A. Wiedensholer, J. Pyle, and W. B. Rossow (2010): MEGAPOLI: concept of multi-scale modeling of megacity impact on air quality and climate. Advances in Science and Research, 4, 115-120; doi:10.5194/asr-4-115-2010, www.adv-sci-res.net/4/115/2010/

Baklanov, A., Mestayer, P., Clappier, A., Zilitinkevich, S., Joffre, S., Mahura, A., Nielsen, N.W., 2008: Towards improving the simulation of meteorological fields in urban areas through updated/advanced surface fluxes description. Atmos. Chem. Phys., 8, 523-543.

Beirle, S., Boersma, K. F., Platt, U., Lawrence, M. G. and Wagner, T.: Megacity Emissions and Lifetimes of Nitrogen Oxides Probed from Space, Science, 333(6050), 1737 -1739, doi:10.1126/science.1207824, 2011.

Beirle, S., Kühl, S., Puķīte, J., and Wagner, T.: Retrieval of tropospheric column densities of NO2 from combined SCIAMACHY nadir/limb measurements, Atmos. Meas. Tech., 3, 283-299, 2010.

Butler, T. M. (2009): Automated sequence analysis of atmospheric oxidation pathways: SEQUENCE version 1.0, Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss. 2, 1001-1021.

Butler, T. M., and M. G. Lawrence (2009): The influence of megacities on global atmospheric chemistry: a modelling study, Environ. Chem. 6, 291-225.

Chen, D., Zhou, B., Beirle, S., Chen, L. M., and Wagner, T.: Tropospheric NO2 column densities deduced from zenith-sky DOAS measurements in Shanghai, China, and their application to satellite validation, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 9, 3641-3662, 2009.

Folberth, G. A., Abraham, N. L., Collins, W. J., Johnson, C. E., Morgenstern, O, O’Connor, F. M., Young, P., (2009a): The Hadley Centre Earth-System-Model HadGEM2 – Outline, Evaluation. 7th Intl. Conference on Air Quality – Science and Application, Istanbul 25.III.2009 (Istanbul, Turkey, 24-27 March 2009).

Folberth, G. A., Abraham, N. L., Collins, W. J., Johnson, C. E., Morgenstern, O., O’Connor F. M., Young, P., (2009b): Evolution of SOA formation and budget over the 21(st) century with implications for air quality. in abstracts to the 19th Annual VM Goldschmidt Conference, 22-26 June 2009, Davos, Switzerland, published in Geochimica et Cosmochimica Acta, Vol 73, Iss 13, p. A387.



Hayn, M., Beirle, S., Hamprecht, F. A., Platt, U., Menze, B. H., and Wagner, T.: Analysing spatio-temporal patterns of the global NO2-distribution retrieved from GOME satellite observations using a generalized additive model, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 9,1–19, 2009.

Jalkanen J.-P., Brink A., Kalli J., Pettersson H., Kukkonen J. and Stipa T., 2009. A modelling system for the exhaust emissions of marine traffic and its application in the Baltic Sea area, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 9, 9209-9223.

Jalkanen J.-P., L. Johansson, J. Kukkonen, A. Brink, J. Kalli, and T. Stipa, 2011. Extension of an assessment model of ship traffic exhaust emissions for particulate matter and carbon monoxide, Atmos. Chem. Phys. Discuss., 11, 22129–22172, www.atmos-chem-phys-discuss.net/11/22129/2011/ doi:10.5194/acpd-11-22129-2011.

Kaasik, Marko, Mikhail Sofiev, Marje Prank, Taina Ruuskanen, Jaakko Kukkonen, Urmas Hõrrak and Markku Kulmala, 2011. Geographical origin of aerosol particles observed during the LAPBIAT measurement campaign in spring 2003 in Finnish Lapland, Boreal Environment Research 16, 15-35.

Kukkonen, J., Balk, T., Schultz, D. M., Baklanov, A., Klein, T., Miranda, A. I., Monteiro, A., Hirtl, M., Tarvainen, V., Boy, M., Peuch, V.-H., Poupkou, A., Kioutsioukis, I., Finardi, S., Sofiev, M., Sokhi, R., Lehtinen, K., Karatzas, K., San José, R., Astitha, M., Kallos, G., Schaap, M., Reimer, E., Jakobs, H., and Eben, K., (2011): Operational, regional-scale, chemical weather forecasting models in Europe, Atmos. Chem. Phys. Discuss., 11, 5985-6162. http://www.atmos-chem-phys-discuss.net/11/5985/2011/

Kukkonen, J., T. Klein, K. Karatzas, K. Torseth, A. Fahre Vik, R. San Jose, T. Balk, and M. Sofiev, 2009. COST ES0602: towards a European network on chemical weather forecasting and information systems, Adv. Sci. Res., 3, 27–33, 2009, www.adv-sci-res.net/3/27/2009/, Contributions of the 8th EMS Annual Meeting and 7th European Conference on Applied Climatology, 2008.

Lourens, A.M, Butler, T.M., Beukes, J.P., van Zyl, P.G., Beirle, S., Wagner, T., Heue, K., Pienaar, J.J., Fourie, G.D., and Lawrence, M.G, (2011), Re-evaluating the NO2 hotspot over the South African Highveld, Geophys. Res. Lett., submitted

Manders, A.M.M., M. Schaap, M. Jozwicka (2009b). Sea salt concentrations over Europe, measurements and modelling, Goldschmidt Conference, Davos Zwitserland, 21-26 May 2009.

Manders, A.M.M., Schaap, M., Hoogerbrugge, R. (2009a). Testing the capability of the chemistry transport model LOTOS-EUROS to forecast PM10 levels in the Netherlands, Atmospheric Environment, 43 (26), pp. 4050-4059. DOI: 10.1016/j.atmosenv.2009.05.006.

Mielonen, T., A. Arola, M. Komppula, J. Kukkonen, J. Koskinen, G. de Leeuw and K. E. J. Lehtinen, 2009. Comparison of CALIOP level 2 aerosol subtypes to aerosol types derived from AERONET inversion data. Geophysical Research Letters, Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L18804.

Prank, M., M. Sofiev, H.A.C. Denier van der Gon, M. Kaasik, T.M. Ruuskanen, and J. Kukkonen, 2010. A refinement of the emission data for Kola Peninsula based on inverse dispersion modeling. Atmos. Chem. Phys., 10(22), 10849–10865, 2010, www.atmos-chem-phys.net/10/10849/2010/ doi:10.5194/acp-10-10849-2010.

Ross O., D. Grawe, M. Uphoff, H. Schlünzen (2010). Modeling European Air Pollution with M-SYS, EMS Annual Meeting, Zürich, 14 September 2010

Saarnio, Karri; Minna Aurela; Hilkka Timonen; Sanna Saarikoski; Kimmo Teinilä; Timo Mäkelä; Mikhail Sofiev; Jarkko Koskinen; Pasi P Aalto; Markku Kulmala; Jaakko Kukkonen and Risto Hillamo, 2010. Chemical composition of fine particles in fresh smoke plumes from boreal forest-fires, Science of the Total Environment, 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2010.03.010.

Schaap, M., E.Hendriks, H. Denier van der Gon. (2009). Constraining the potential source strength of various soil dust sources contributing to atmospheric PM10 concentrations in Europe, Goldschmidt Conference, Davos Zwitserland, 21-26 May 2009.

Schlünzen K.H., Grawe D., Bohnenstengel S.I., Schlüter I., Koppmann R. (2011): Joint modelling of obstacle induced and mesoscale changes – current limits and challenges. J. Wind Eng. Ind. Aerodyn. 99, 217–225, doi: 10.1016/j.jweia.2011.01.009.

Shaiganfar, R., Beirle, S., Sharma, M., Chauhan, A., Singh, R. P., and Wagner, T.: Estimation of NOx emissions from Delhi using car MAX-DOAS observations and comparison with OMI satellite data, Atmos. Chem. Phys. Discuss., 11, 19179-19212, doi:10.5194/acpd-11-19179-2011, 2011.

Sofiev, M., J. Soares, M. Prank, G. de Leeuw, and J. Kukkonen. A regional-to-global model of emission and transport of sea salt particles in the atmosphere. J. Geophys. Res., 116, D21302, doi:10.1029/2010JD014713



Sofiev, M., R. Vankevich, M. Lotjonen, M. Prank, V. Petukhov, T. Ermakova, J. Koskinen and J. Kukkonen, 2009b. An operational system for the assimilation of satellite information on wild-land fires for the needs of air quality modelling and forecasting, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 9, 6833–6847.

Sofiev, M., Siljamo, P., Ranta, H., Linkosalo, T., Jaeger, S., Jaeger, C., Rassmussen, A., Severova, E., Oksanen, Karppinen, A., Kukkonen, J. (2011) From Russia to Iceland: an evaluation of a large-scale pollen and chemical air pollution episode during April and May, 2006. Aerobiol. Monogr., 1, in press.

Veriankaitė, Laura, Pilvi Siljamo, Mikhail Sofiev, Ingrida Šaulienė and Jaakko Kukkonen, 2010. Modelling analysis of source regions of long-range transported birch pollen that influences allergenic seasons in Lithuania, Aerobiologia, International Journal of Aerobiology, Vol. 26, Number 1, 47–62.

Zilitinkevich, S.S., and Esau, I.N., 2009: Planetary boundary layer feedbacks in climate system and triggering global warming in the night, in winter and at high latitudes. Submitted to Geography, Environment and Sustainability.

Zilitinkevich, S.S., Elperin, T., Kleeorin, N., L'vov, V., and Rogachevskii, I., 2009: Energy- and flux-budget (EFB) turbulence closure model for stably stratified flows. Part II: The role of internal gravity waves. Boundary-Layer Meteorol. DOI: 10.1007/s10546-009-9424-0

Zilitinkevich, S.S., Elperin, T., Kleeorin, N., Rogachevskii, I., Esau, I., Mauritsen, T., and Miles, M. W., 2008: Turbulence energetics in stably stratified geophysical flows: strong and weak mixing regimes. Quart. J. Roy. Met. Soc. 134, 793-799.

Zilitinkevich, S.S., Esau, I.N., T., Kleeorin, and Rogachevskii, I., 2009: Alternative similarity theory formulations in searching for the dissipation length scale in the stably stratified sheared turbulence. Submitted to Boundary-Layer Meteorol.

Zilitinkevich, S.S., Mammarella, I., Baklanov, A.A., and Joffre, S.M., 2008: The effect of stratification on the aerodynamic roughness length and displacement height. Boundary-Layer Meteorol. 129, 179-190.



3.6. WP6: Regional and global climate effects Coordinated by W. Collins (MetO) and F. Giorgii (ICTP) MEGAPOLI Partners involved: DMI, MPIC, ICTP, MetO, UHel, CUNI

Summary of progress toward objectives Following the overall WP6 objective - to quantify the effects of megacities on climate from the regional to the global scale using coupled and uncoupled global and regional chemistry-climate models and by analyzing observation data. For the 1st specific objective after preliminary model development an “annihilation” scenario was run (i.e. without any emissions for grids occupied by a megacity). The radiation schemes were adapted to diagnose the radiative impacts of the aerosol components. Regional models used boundary conditions of meteorology and composition from existing global runs; and emissions for year of 2005 for the regional and global runs, taken from WP1 and IMAGE scenario RCP2.6 for the CMIP5 project, respectively. Following the 2nd objective a simple analytical model was used to calculate the global temperature increase due to megacity emissions of the long-lived greenhouse gases, GHG (CO2, N2O, CH4, HCFC). Satellite and ground-based measurements were used in to validate the aerosol optical depth and hence radiative fluxes, in the models (O6.3). For the 4th specific objective the 6-hourly climate data was provided from a Met Office HadGEM2 simulation using a CMIP5 scenario.


Deliverable 6.3 - Comparison of measured and modelled radiative effects

Aerosol optical depths for the Met Office HadGEM2 model and satellite data from AATSR and MODIS were compared. The data showed that the modelled aerosol loads and radiation fluxes were generally in reasonable agreement with the observations. However, discrepancies were seen in areas of biomass burning. Hannukainen M., de Leeuw G., Collins W.J. (2011): Comparison of Measured and Modeled Radiative Effects. Deliverable D6.3, MEGAPOLI Scientific Report 11-13, MEGAPOLI-39-REP-2011-08, 22p, ISBN: 978-87-92731-17-3 http://megapoli.dmi.dk/publ/MEGAPOLI_sr11-13.pdf

Deliverable 6.4 - Comparison of coupled and uncoupled models Results from this deliverable showed that on the global scale it is not necessary to include coupling of the pollution concentrations to the climate in order to realistically simulate megacity air quality impacts. This is because the impacts of air quality pollutants on the boundary layer structure are much less than the natural meteorological variability. Rumbold S.T., W.J. Collins, G.A. Folberth (2010): Comparison of Coupled and Uncoupled Models. Deliverable D6.4, MEGAPOLI Scientific Report 10-20, MEGAPOLI-23-REP-2010-11, 15p, ISBN: 978-87-92731-01-2 http://megapoli.dmi.dk/publ/MEGAPOLI_sr10-20.pdf

Deliverable 6.5 - Meteorological fields for present and future climate conditions Regional climate model data for initialization and boundary conditions were provided by the ECHAM5 A1B-run-3 simulation.



Lawrence M. G., Butler T. M., Collins W., Folberth G., Zakey A., Giorgi F. (2010): Meteorological Fields for Present and Future Climate Conditions. Deliverable D6.5, MEGAPOLI Technical Note 10-14, MEGAPOLI-17-REP-2010-09, 9p. http://megapoli.dmi.dk/publ/MEGAPOLI_sr10-14.pdf

Deliverable 6.6 - Regional and global climate changes due to megacities using coupled and uncoupled models Global modelling was used to identify the impact of future emissions and climate on the radiative forcing from Megacities. 2050 was chosen as the future year using the pessimistic CMIP5 RCP8.5 scenario for both emissions and climate. The largest effect on pollutant concentrations came from the change in emissions rather than climate. The long-lived gas emissions from megacities more than doubled. The air quality pollutants, particularly aerosols decreased markedly. The decrease for megacity emissions of air quality pollutants was larger than for global anthropogenic emissions in general. Since D6.4 had shown that there was no difference between coupled and uncoupled models, uncoupled models were used for this deliverable. Folberth G.A., S. Rumbold, W.J. Collins, T. Butler (2011): Regional and Global Climate Changes due to Megacities using Coupled and Uncoupled Models. Deliverable D6.6, MEGAPOLI Scientific Report 11-07, MEGAPOLI-33-REP-2011-06, 18p, ISBN: 978-87-92731-11-1 http://megapoli.dmi.dk/publ/MEGAPOLI_sr11-07.pdf

All WP6 tasks were initially completed using the global models generated outputs, then the regional climate modeling results were also used for re-evaluation and including in the Deliverables for the reporting period. Task 6.1: Regional and global radiative forcing and climate effects from constituent changes (lead by MetO, ICTP)

This task is linked with specific objective O6.1 (To implement the fields of radiative forcing agents into global and regional climate models in order to quantify the TOA and surface radiative forcing (direct and indirect) and related climate effects from scenarios). For this task “annihilation” scenarios have been run, i.e. with emissions set to zero for grids occupied by a megacity. These runs are the same as used to provide the composition change in WP5. Aerosol forcings are diagnosed from double radiation calls, the ozone and methane forcings are diagnosed from changes in the global budgets. The regional models use boundary conditions of meteorology and composition from existing global runs. The emissions for the regional models are taken from WP1. The emissions for the global models are taken from the IMAGE scenario RCP2.6 for the CMIP5 project. Emission year is 2005. Generally, the contribution of megacities to global pollutant emissions is on the order of 2% to 5% of the total global annual anthropogenic emission flux. The impact of megacity pollutants is assessed via a direct radiative forcing from ozone, methane and aerosols. Megacity pollutants are found to contribute a radiative forcing of +5.7±0.2 mW/m2 from an increase in the ozone burden due to pollutant photochemical oxidation. The change in methane lifetime and consequently the change in the CH4 abundance in the atmosphere contributes a forcing of -1.9±0.4mW/m2. The aerosol forcing from megacity pollutants amounts to -6.1±2.1mW/m2 in the short-wave spectrum and +1.5±0.1 mW/m2 in the long-wave spectrum (figure 6.1). The combined effect of all of these individual terms is a slightly negative forcing, that is a cooling, of -0.8±2.4 mW/m2 of the climate at present-day conditions (table 6.1).



(a) (b)

Figure 6.1: Global distribution of - (a) short-wave, SW all-sky and (b) long-wave, LW clear sky - top-of-atmosphere (TOA) radiative forcing due to aerosols from megacities /Forcing is denoted in W/m2/.

Species DRF mW/m2 mW/m2

HadGEM2 MATCH-MPICΔOzone-DRF total TOA +5.7±0.2 +9.9

ΔMethane-DRF total TOA -1.9±0.4 -3.1ΔAerosol-DRF SW all-sky TOA -6.1±2.1 —

LW clear-sky TOA +1.5±0.1 — -0.8±2.4 -6.2

Total DRF

Table 6.1: Current best estimate of the present-day annual global mean direct radiative forcing (mW/m2) due to pollutant emissions from megacities as computed with the Met Office Hadley Centre

Earth System Model HadGEM2 and the MATCH-MPIC chemistry-transport model from MPI-Chemistry Mainz.

Regional climate modelling of aerosol direct effect from megacities over Europe. The regcm4 regional climate model was used to assess possible regional climatic feedbacks (focusing only on aerosol direct and semi-directs effects) of aerosol emitted by megacities for present and future climatic conditions. Different sets of simulations representing 10 years for present (2001-2010) and future (2041-2050) conditions at 40 km spatial resolution have been performed. The model was dynamically forced at its boundaries by ECHAM5 GCM outputs for A1B scenario. Emissions over the domain were prescribed using the TNO MEGAPOLI high resolution inventory for SO2 and PM (cf DEL 1.2) degraded at 40 km resolution. PM emissions have been speciated into OC and BC according to activity sectors and country (data delivered by TNO). For future emission scenarios, scaling emissions factors for year 2050 depending on activity sectors and country have been applied. Because the domain is extended in order to encompass natural aerosol sources impacting Europe, anthropogenic emission outside the MEGAPOLI European emission domain were prescribed using the global MACcity emission inventory for year 2005. In order to isolate MEGAPOLI specific contribution different runs have been performed including no aerosol, all aerosols (sulphate, sea-salt, BC,OC,dust), anthropogenic only (SO4,BC,OC), and anthropogenic from megacities only using the high resolution megacity mask. In terms of clear sky TOA radiative forcing (which is calculated using a double call to the radiation scheme during the run), the regcm4 simulations showed a positive contribution of megacities over source regions, whereas regional anthropogenic aerosol emissions results in a negative TOA over the domain. This has to do with enhanced absorbing/diffusive aerosol ratio in the vicinity of megacity. Obviously this result, which differs from the estimation reported above at global scale depends on optical properties of aerosol considered and surface albedo. It showed the large sensitivity (and uncertainties) linked to the representation of particle



mixture and aging and the influence on regional radiative forcing via optical properties evolution. The data and meso-scale modelling exercise focusing on urban to regional scale performed during MEGAPOLI should help to better constrain such aspects for aerosol climate feedback studies. With this first set of simulations, an attempt has also been made in order to characterize regional climatic impacts of aerosol emitted by European megacities. At the present stage, the possible radiative perturbation effects are likely to be masked by the intrinsic variability of the model. This latter has been evaluated by additional runs inducing random perturbations of boundary conditions. In order to try to screen out intrinsic variability and isolate a possible physical signal linked to aerosol radiative forcing, ensemble simulations are presently being performed at ICTP. This requires additional computing time and analysis before robust conclusion can be reached.

Task 6.2: Radiative forcing and climate effects from long-lived greenhouse-gases, GHG (lead by MetO)

This task is linked with specific objective O6.2 (To calculate the effect of long-lived GHG such as CO2, N2O, CH4, HCFC - megacity emissions on climate using simple algorithms) and it was completed in year 1 (in advance of schedule). A simple analytical model was used to calculate the global temperature increase due to megacity emissions of the long-lived GHG. The emissions were taken from the EDGAR 4.0 inventory. HCFC emissions were not included as they were not available. A report is available as WP6 deliverable (D6.1 – Global radiative forcing from megacity emissions of long-lived greenhouse gases). Megacities are found to contribute around 12% of the anthropogenic emissions of the carbon dioxide and lesser fractions (due to their more distributed emissions) of methane and nitrous oxide. There is a wide variation in the emissions attributed to the different megacities, and little correlation between the emissions of the three gases (figure 6.2). The climate impacts from megacity greenhouse gas emissions are calculated in terms of surface temperature change using a simple analytical climate model. For a step change in emissions, megacities contribute a warming of over 0.2K after 100 years (figure 6.3). Most of this is due to carbon dioxide emissions. The other two gases methane and nitrous oxide contribute about 12% of the 100 year temperature change. Megacity emissions of nitrous oxide have only a very small impact on climate.

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Figure 6.2 : Emissions from 34 megacities for the year 2005 according to the Edgar 4.0 database. Emissions

of CO2 are in Pg/yr, CH4 and N2O are in Tg/yr, although values for CH4 have been divided by 10 to keep them on the same scale.



(a) (b)

Figure 6.3 : Evolution of the concentration changes (a) and temperature changes (b) resulting from a step change of megacity emissions.

Task 6.3: Measurements (lead by UHel) This task is linked to specific objective 6.3 (To use satellite and ground-based measurements in order to assess the TOA radiative fluxes, surface aerosol radiative forcing and AOD induced by megacities). The estimation of aerosol radiative effects required the use of a model. Measurement-based estimates were used to constrain the model results. Satellites measure the radiation at the top of the atmosphere and this was used with an aerosol retrieval algorithm to retrieve the aerosol optical depth (AOD) and associated aerosol properties which are subsequently be used to estimate radiative effects. To avoid unnecessary complication in comparison of model and satellite derived radiative effects, the AOD computed with the HadGEM2 model was compared with the AOD retrieved from AATSR and from MODIS. This comparison was made for global data in 2008, for each of the four seasons. Model and satellite derived AOD general compared reasonably well but in some cases large discrepancies are observed, particularly in areas of large wildfires.

Figure 6.4 Difference in AOD between HadGEM2 and AATSR. Difference was calculated by subtracting

the AATSR AOD from the HadGEM2 AOD.



Task 6.4: Climate change meteorology/ Climate feedback (lead by MetO, MPIC) This task is linked to specific objective 6.4 (To provide future-climate meteorological fields). Within MEGAPOLI different types of models are being employed, including a regional climate model (RegCM), numerous regional chemistry-transport models (CTMs), two global chemistry-climate models (HadGEM/UKCA and EMAC) and two global chemistry-transport models (FLEXPART and MATCH-MPIC). Meteorological input is required to drive the tracer transport for all of these, except the global climate models, which generate their meteorology internally based on solar and atmospheric forcing inputs. Within the project, WP6 takes on responsibility for helping to provide this data, where needed. The decisions regarding meteorological data usage, which have been optimized to account for developments that have been made during the project, are described in the following section. Regional climate model data for initialization and boundary conditions were provided by the ECHAM5 A1B-run-3 simulation


MetO contributed to climate forcing of LLGHGs and global model development. MetO developed an analytical climate model to quantify the impacts of CO2, CH4 and N2O emissions from megacities on global surface temperatures. This model used simple expressions to simulate the carbon cycle and the removal of methane and nitrous oxide. The model was driven by 2005 emissions from EDGAR 4.0 at 1°×1° masked with a 1°×1° megacity map from MPIC. The results show that if megacities maintain their 2005 emissions, this will lead to a 225 mK global temperature rise over the next 100 years. 200 mK of this is driven by the CO2 emissions with the rest from methane and nitrous oxide. The HadGEM2 model (Collins et al., 2011) was developed to improve the simulations of chemistry and aerosols in order to better simulate the impacts of pollutants from megacities on reactive greenhouse gases (ozone and methane) and aerosols (sulphate, organic carbon, and black carbon). This model was run for different emission and climate scenarios with and without megacity emissions. Each run was for 5 years. The initial conditions for 2005 and 2050 were generated from transient climate runs of the HadGEM2 model using the RCP8.5 climate scenario. Met O delivered D6.1, D6.2, D6.4 and D6.6, and contributed to D6.3 and D6.5. ICTP cotributed to regional model development. ICTP determined a regional model domain to develop chemistry-climate feedback over European mega cities; and developed an emission pre-processor for RegCM3 (which take into accounts consider all of the available global emission inventories). ICTP also coupled an on-line biogenic VOC emissions module (MEGAN) to the land surface model of RegCM, enabling an interactive treatment of natural emissions and climate; as well as coupled a suite of gas phase chemical mechanisms to RegCM3 and evaluated the model over preliminary simulations in Europe. Based on comparisons with an observational network of ozone data, the results indicate that the gas-phase schemes accurately simulate ozone, an important greenhouse gas. In RegCM, several gas-phase mechanisms running from comprehensive to condensed gas-phase were coupled. It is planned to use the condensed gas-phase mechanism for the long climate-chemistry simulation, while the comprehensive one will be used for the case-studies. Several chemical mechanisms and several chemical solvers within the framework of the ICTP-RegCM were tested. These included the following: 1) updated GEOS-CHEM, using Sanford Sillman box model code; 2) updated GEOS-CHEM (GEOS_KPP) using KPP to produce the code; 3) CBMZ (CBMZ_KPP) using KPP to produce the code; and 4) RACM (RACM_KPP) using KPP to produce the code.



During this past year, major modifications have been brought to the regcm model (transition from RegCM3 to a new modular version RegCM4). Technically a lot of time has been devoted to back port developments conducted in the frame of regcm3 to regcm4. This effort has included also an optimisation of the code, the use of a more comprehensive and accurate interface to treat chemical boundary conditions, refinement in aerosol/chemistry processes like wet and dry deposition and convective teransport. The gas phase RegCM4 chem code has been applied over Europe for a five year runs and is presently in the process of validation. MPIC contributed to global model development. MPIC has developed the 1°×1° megacity mask which is used in deliverables D6.1 and D6.2. The MATCH-MPIC global chemistry-tranport model was run using emission scenarios using this mask and the results of ozone and methane from MATCH-MPIC were included in the assessment of the climate impacts of megacity emissions in D6.2. MPIC provided meteorological data generated by the ECHAM5 model (from communty-use CMIP/IPCC simulations) to generate meteorological boundary conditions for use by the regional models. MPIC delivered D6.5 and contributed to D6.2 and D6.6. DMI contributed to regional modelling. DMI team is involved only in the Task 6.1 with the on-line coupled Enviro-HIRLAM model for specific case studies to understand better the mechanisms of non-linear feedback chains/loops, e.g. aerosols - radiation/clouds/PBL - chemical composition. This work considers short-term runs with 15 km resolution and focuses on further improvements of 2-way feedback mechanisms (first of all the 1st and 2nd aerosol indirect effects) in the model. Sensitivity studies for these two aerosol indirect effects on meteorological and chemical transport processes were performed for the domain with the Paris metropolitan region in the centre (see more details in WP4). UHel analysed satellite data retrievals of the global distributions of the spectral aerosol optical depth (AOD) from radiances measured at the top of the atmosphere (TOA) with the Advanced Along Track Scanning Radiometer (AATSR) flying on ENVISAT, for 2008. This was achieved by using updated versions of the single view algorithm over the ocean and the dual view algorithm over land. The data were compared against results from aerosols from the MetO climate model (HadGEM2). UHel delivered D6.3. CUNI contributed to regional modelling. CUNI completed the contribution analysis of Megacities emissions under scenarios available with the interactive couple of RegCM and CAMx. On regional scale, clearly, the contribution of Megacities to air-quality is high and locally it can achieve order of tens percent in concentrations of pollutants like ozone and other products of photochemical proceses in summer, or aerosols, mainly in winter due to the stability conditions in mixing layer. Based on one year simulation only, this results in the Megacities potential to modify surface temperature eventually up to a few degrees (given theoretical complete emission reduction), actually only in local episodes, moreover mainly due to semi-indirect effects. In reality, this effect will be in order of magnitude weaker and at climate time scales probably even lower. Longer (at least one decade) simulations or ensembles runs can provide more comprehensive information

Discussion and conclusion

WP6 assessed the climate impact of megacities both for present day (2005) and the future (2050). The long-lived gas emissions contributed a significant fraction of the anthropogenic greenhouse gases (12% of the CO2). It was not possible to assess whether the fractional contribution of megacities would change, but in a pessimistic business as usual scenario the total megacity impact on climate forcing more than doubled. For short-lived air quality pollutants, the global impact of the ozone precursor gases was a small warming. Megacity



aerosol emissions cause a compensating cooling, leading to little effect. In the future, megacity air quality pollutant emissions are expected to reduce significantly, and more quickly than the global average, so they become much less important. The comparisons between the modelled and observed radiation fluxes indicate that the models were performing sufficiently well to give credence to the conclusions. The radiative forcing patterns from the global simulations in figure 6.1 suggest that the climate impacts would be very heterogeneous. Preliminary results based on regional climate simulations over Europe at 40 km resolution confirm also the difficulty to isolate a robust climatic response to megacities aerosol radiative forcing from model internal variability. It is notably suggested to further perform ensemble simulations and adequate statistical treatment for such a detection.

List of WP reports, publications, presentations Collins W.J. et al. (2011) Development and evaluation of an earth system model HadGEM2. Geosci. Mod.

Dev. Discuss. 4. 997-1062. Collins W.J. (2009): Global radiative forcing from megacity emissions of long-lived greenhouse gases.

Deliverable 6.1, MEGAPOLI Scientific Report 09-01, 17p, MEGAPOLI-01-REP-2009-10, ISBN: 978-87-992924-1-7, http://megapoli.dmi.dk/publ/MEGAPOLI_sr09-01.pdf

Gerd A. Folberth, Steve Rumbold, William J. Collins, Tim (2010): Determination of Radiative Forcing from Megacity Emissions on the Global Scale. Deliverable D6.2, MEGAPOLI Scien-tific Report 10-08, MEGAPOLI-11-REP-2010-03, 19p, http://megapoli.dmi.dk/publ/MEGAPOLI_sr10-08.pdf

Korsholm U. (2009): Integrated modeling of aerosol indirect effects - develoment and application of a chemical weather model. PhD thesis University of Copenhagen, Niels Bohr Institute and DMI, Research Department; http://www.dmi.dk/dmi/sr09-01.pdf

Other reports and relevant publications are covered under WP5. • Impact of megacity aerosol emissions on air quality and climate in the Met Office climate model HadGEM2,

IGAC Conference (Halifax, Canada), July 2010 • Impact of megacity aerosol emissions on air quality and climate in the Met Office climate model HadGEM2,

Aerocom (Oxford, UK), September 2010 • Source-receptor studies of global aerosol transport in the Met Office Unified Model, AeroCom Conference

(Princeton, US), October 2009 • The Hadley Centre Earth-System-Model HadGEM2 - Outline, Evaluation. 7th Intl. Conference on Air Quality

- Science and Application, Istanbul 25.III.2009 (Istanbul,Turkey, 24-27 March 2009). • Evolution of SOA formation and budget over the 21(st) century with implications for air quality. in abstracts to

the 19th Annual VM Goldschmidt Conference, 22-26 June 2009, Davos, Switzerland, published in Geochimica et Cosmochimica Acta, Vol 73, Iss 13, p. A387.

• Impact of Megacities on Composition and Climate - Results from the MEGAPOLI Project, EGU General Assembly, Vienna, 3-8 April 2011.



3.7. WP7: Integrated tools and implementation Coordinated by R. Sokhi (UH-CAIR) and H. Schlünzen (UHam) MEGAPOLI Partners involved: DMI, FORTH, ARIANET, AUTH, CNRS, FMI, MetO, UHam, UH-CAIR, USTUTT, WMO Summary of progress toward objectives

The main objectives of this WP are listed below: O7.1 To synthesise information on emissions, meteorology, processes, air quality, climate and model developments from other WPs. O7.2 To synthesise knowledge and stimulate scientific consensus on the required complexity of model systems for mitigation/policy needs. O7.3 To develop a European framework for coupling urban-regional-global modelling tools to examine science and policy problems identified in WP8. O7.4 To apply integrated tools to study the air quality and climate change interactions and impact for selected megacities on urban, regional to global scales. O7.5 To make recommendations on the improved understanding of megacity impacts on regional and global air quality and climate. During the 1st reporting period, WP7 has focussed on developing a work plan for the WP in particular providing a framework for producing the synthesis of knowledge. Each WP leader has been responsible for including and ‘integrating’ element into their work plans and will identify how their outcomes will help to answer the key science questions. Progress on producing a European framework for online and offline coupling models for air quality and climate studies is already underway and a report has been produced (D7.1). During the reporting period, WP7 has identified European megacities to which the integrated tools employ for the megacity applications. An evaluation of integrated modelling system performed in Deliverable 7.2. The implementation of different integrated tools for London, Paris, Rhine-Ruhr, and PO valley (MEGAPOLI-1st Level megacities) had carried out in the Deliverable 7.3. London had been used as a case study to develop a strategy of implementing meteorological, chemistry-transport and climate models for regional and global scales within a ‘common’ approach and done in close cooperation with WP4 and WP5. Case studies on European cities and other megacities cities were presented in the Deliverable 7.3 and discussed the integrated air quality modelling approaches. Deliverable 7.4 described the scientific questions discussed in the project and made recommendation based on the studies carried out in the work packages.


Deliverable 7.2 - Evaluation of integrated tools

The evaluation of Air Quality (AQ) models is very important for checking their applicability. Within MEGAPOLI an evaluation methodology developed and applied to results of five AQ model systems. The models were applied to a large European domain for a full-year simulation of year 2005. The models were of somewhat different complexity and thereby differ in process requirements, operational aspects, levels of integration, interfaces between meteorological and the actual air quality models. The evaluation methodology employed in MEGAPOLI follows the COST 728 / ACCENT concept and includes a general and scientific evaluation. The benchmark test case was the full year 2005, which was used for a diagnostic, dynamic and probabilistic evaluation. Furthermore, the results for 2005 were used for the operational evaluation. All evaluations were done using routine observational data. The comparison data



were from rural as well as from urban stations, where the last were used to study the ability of the models to simulate urban specialities. The operational evaluation included not only annual means but also exceedances. It was also studied in which way averaging times impact model performances. Focus of the evaluation method was on concentrations of PM, O3, NO2. For diagnostic and dynamic evaluation meteorological parameters were evaluated as well and the evaluation was done in dependence of the meteorological situation, which was characterised by clustering all days of 2005 into 9 weather types.

Schlünzen K.H., M. Haller (Eds) (2011): Evaluation of Integrated Tools. MEGAPOLI Scientific Report 11-03, MEGAPOLI-29-REP-2011-03, 51p, ISBN: 978-87-92731-07-4

http://megapoli.dmi.dk/publ/MEGAPOLI_sr11-03.pdf Deliverable 7.3 - Implementation of integrated models for megacities

In this MEGAPOLI Deliverable D7.3 ‘Implementation of Integrated models for megacities’ the integration of meteorological and chemical modelling systems to study the air pollution over the European megacities as well as Non-European cities discussed. The integrated modelling systems such as RAMS-FARM, WRF-CMAQ, LOTOS-EUROS, M_SYS-METRAS-MECTM, MEMO-MARS, GRE-CAPS, Enviro-HIRLAM, MESO-NH, WRF-Chem, and ENSEMBLE applied to study the different air pollution scenarios over the MEGAPOLI 1st level Megacities such as London, Paris, Po-Valley, and Rhine- Ruhr. The results showed that the integrated modelling system simulated the air pollution events well as compared to the observations. Francis, X. V, Sokhi, R. S (Eds) (2011): Implementation of Integrated Models for Megacities, MEGAPOLI Scientific Report 11-21, MEGAPOLI-47-REP-2011-09, ISBN: 978-87-92731-258, http://megapoli.dmi.dk/publ/MEGAPOLI_sr11-21.pdf

Deliverable 7.4 - Synthesis of results and recommendations on key science questions and use of models according to complexity This deliverable examined the outcomes of the main scientific questions discussed in the MEGAPOLI project and the recommendations made for the science questions discussed in the project. Several scientific questions had answered through the different work packages described in the project. The main areas of studies were the change of exposure and health impacts as people move to megacities, the effect of megacities on regional and global scales air quality, the major physical and chemical transformation of air pollutants, the accuracy of emission inventories, impact of megacities on regional and global climate, the growth of megacities affect future climate, impact of large scale dynamic process on air pollution from megacities, the key feedbacks, parameterization of megacities in regional and global models, integrated modelling tools and the policy options. In the megacities, the population is in direct vicinity of emission and this could lead to high exposure of air pollutants in megacities. MEGAPOLI highly recommended the detailed local inventories to quantify the emissions from megacities and for the exposure studies. It was found that the contribution of megacities to global pollutant emissions is of the order of 2% - 6% of the total global annual anthropogenic emission flux. It recommended to work towards better consistency in the use of data for megacities, to move towards online or coupled approaches and to address the need for dedicated and targeted data sets for model evaluation purposes. MEGAPOLI recommended to switch to renewable heat supply in the residential sector, a Europe-wide passenger car toll, expansion of electricity generation from renewable in large combustion plants, replacement of solid fuel fired small combustion plants with efficient combustion techniques, replacement of old gas/oil boilers with modern condensing boilers in the cement industry, combined climate protection measures in the cement industry and promotion of low emission vehicles (E-cars, hybrid vehicles) on a midterm (2030) as well a long term time scale (2050). Francis, X. V, Sokhi, R. S (Eds) (2011):Synthesis of Results and Recommendations on Key Science Questions and Use of Models According to Complexity, MEGAPOLI Scientific Report 11-23, MEGAPOLI-49-REP-2011-09, ISBN: 978-87-92731-28-9,




Milestone 7.2 - Selection of Megacities for implementation (lead: UH-CAIR, WMO; month 28) has been achieved. The European megacities and cities selected for the implementation of integrated models were London, Paris, Rhine-Ruhr area, Po Valley, Vilnius (Lithuania), and St Petersburg metropolitan area (Russia). Also, Mexico, Shanghai, New York, Phoenix, and New Delhi considered for megacity applications.

All WP7 Tasks (7.1-7.5) have continued and finalised during the reporting period. Task 7.1: Synthesis of outcomes of WPs – in relation to scientific knowledge and adequacy of models for mitigation measures and policy needs (lead: UH-CAIR + UHam, DMI, MPIC, FORTH, CNRS, FMI)

A key aim was to develop common framework for modelling tools which allow the linkages between air quality and climate change. The task considered issues related to emissions, air quality and climate aspects on regional to global scale. The framework (as developed in Task 7.2) addressed multi-scales (urban to global), multi-pollutant (e.g. O3, PM, NO2) and air quality climate feedback processes (e.g. for aerosols). This task provided the scientific basis for the integrated modeling framework. This Task interacted with other WPs to ensure that interfaces, modules and parameterisation schemes met the requirements of Task 7.2. Consequently, all partners involved in this task with key contributions from UH-CAIR, UHam, DMI, MPIC, FORTH, CNRS and FMI. The output of WP2 is important for simpler modelling tools which examined and developed in WP4 but implemented for selected megacities in Task 7.4 of this WP. In the first phase of the project the following key high level tasks had been considered: T1: Develop and evaluate integrated methodologies to improve emission data from megacities on regional through global scales; (Objective 1); T8: Develop improved integrated tools for prediction of air pollution in megacities; (Objective 3); and T9: Evaluate these integrated modelling tools and use them in case studies for selected megacities; (Objective 3). These Tasks have been essential to develop the integrated approaches needed to undertake the megacity case studies. In combination with Task 7.3, applications of integrated models to investigate the impact of air quality over megacities are given.

Task 7.2: Formulation and development of an integration framework (lead: DMI + UH-CAIR, UHam, FMI, ARIANET, UKMO)

A framework for mode integration developed in collaboration with COST 728. The framework incorporated the following three levels of integration: Level 1 - One way, Level 2 - two ways, Level 3 - fully coupled. Processes involve nonlinear interactions and feedbacks between emissions, chemistry and meteorology require coherent and robust approaches using integrated/online methods. This is particularly important where multiple spatial and temporal scales are involved with a complex mixture of pollutants from large sources, as in the case of megacities. The impacts of megacities on the atmospheric environment are tied directly to anthropogenic activities as sources of air pollution. These impacts act on urban, regional and global scales. Previously there were only limited attempts to integrate this wide range of scales for regional and global air quality and climate applications. Indeed, progress on scale and process interactions has been limited because of the tendency to focus mainly on issues arising at specific scales. However the inter-relating factors between megacities and their impacts on the environment rely on the whole range of scales and thus should be considered within an integrated framework bringing together the treatment of emissions, chemistry and meteorology in a consistent modelling approach. Numerical weather and air pollution prediction models are now able to approach urban-scale resolution, as detailed input data are becoming more often



available. As a result the conventional concepts of down- (and up-) scaling for air pollution prediction need revision along the lines of integration of multi-scale meteorological and chemical transport models. MEGAPOLI aimed at developing a comprehensive integrated modelling framework usable by the research community and implemented for a range of megacities within Europe and across the world to increase the understanding of how large urban areas and other hotspots affect air quality and climate on multiple scales. The integration strategy in MEGAPOLI was not focused on any particular meteorological and/or air pollution modelling system. The approach considered an open integrated framework with flexible architecture and with a possibility of incorporating different meteorological and chemical transport models. The following levels of integration and orders of complexity were considered:

• Level 1 – One way (Global -> regional -> urban), Models: All • Level 2 – Two ways (Global <-> regional <-> urban), Models: ECHAM5/MESSy,

MATCH-MPIC, UM-WRF-CMAQ, SILAM, M-SYS, FARM. • Order A – off-line, meteorology / emissions -> chemistry, Models: All • Order B – partly online, meteorology -> chemistry & emissions, Models: UKCA,

DMAT, M-SYS, UM-WRF-Chem, SILAM • Order C – fully online, meteorology <-> chemistry & emissions, Models: UKCA, WRF-

Chem, Enviro-HIRLAM, ECHAM5/MESSy. Common formats for data exchange (such as GRIB, netCDF formats) were defined to ease the implementation and to help combine the different models via agreed data exchange protocols. The current, chemistry schemes (tropospheric, stratospheric and UTLS)were examined as to their suitability for simulating the impact of complex emissions from megacities. The coupled model systems applied to different European megacities during the development phases of the project. The framework used and demonstrated for selected models including, WRF-CMAQ (UH-CAIR), Enviro-HIRLAM (DMI), STEM/FARM (ARIANET), M-SYS (UHam) and ECHAM5/MESSy on different scales. This part of the work is linked to the requirements and use of simpler tools for assessing air quality impacts within megacities (OSCAR - UH-CAIR, AIRQUIS - NILU, URBIS - TNO).

Task 7.3: Evaluation of integrated methods and models for risk/impact quantification (lead: UHam) Based on the methodology developed in COST 728 (Schlünzen and Sokhi, 2008) and adopted by ACCEN, MEGAPOLI extended the evaluation methodology to chemistry models and applied it to three models (Schlünzen and Haller, 2011).The evaluation methodology the demands of the European AQ directives are considered. The methodology applied to results of five AQ models (CHIMERE, FARM, SILAM, LOTOS-EUROS, WRF-CMAQ; Haller et al., 2011a, b, c). The data were available from each model for a full year 2005. The evaluation included not only annual means but also exceedances of daily or hourly thresholds for concentrations of PM (PM10, PM2.5), O3, NO2. For diagnostic and dynamic evaluation meteorological parameters evaluated and the dependences from different meteorological situations were investigated. This is characterised by grouping all the days of 2005 in 9 weather types, which were obtained by clustering NCEP re-analysis data using the k-means method. The models were evaluated with background stations for the whole of Europe (EMEP stations) and for two focus areas (Rhine Ruhr area plus its neighbouring rural areas, Greater London area; Table 7.3.1). On the one hand, these focus areas were selected to have a detailed evaluation for an area not all models have been evaluated for before, and, on the other hand, the areas were selected to determine the applicability of the models to urban areas, for which they were not developed.



Table 7.3.1: Evaluation domains, for which automatic continuous measurements are available,

EMEP Rhine-Ruhr Greater London Number of stations Up to 65 Up to 20 Up to 37 Pollutants O3, PM10, PM2.5 O3, PM10, PM2.5,

NO2, SO2, O3, PM10, PM2.5, NO2, NO, SO2

Rural stations All 1 0 Suburban stations 0 9 4 Urban / traffic stations 0 10 33

The meteorology data used by the models as input are reliable in the range found for other meteorology model evaluations on base of a literature review (Conrady, 2011). Mean values of the meteorological parameters temperature and wind speed were well represented; the hit rates reach values over 50%. The differences found for the annual average of meteorological parameters were consistently found for different weather types. Concerning the different concentrations the model performance differs. The agreement (bias) was best for ozone (hit rates ~ 0.5-0.75, r ~ 0.8, skvar ~ 1.0) and worst for NO and NO2. This overall performance does not differ much between background and rural measurement sites. However, while for background stations ozone was underestimated and the correlation was not as good as for urban sites, ozone was overestimated for Rhine-Ruhr and quite agreeing with measured data for Greater London (Figure 7.3.1). Furthermore, despite a good calculation of average ozone values and of AOT40 – except for one model, the number of exceedances was in general underestimated.

(a) (b)

(c) (d)



Figure 7.3.1: Difference frequency distribution for ozone (Modelled minus measured) for EMEP background stations (a, b), Rhine-Ruhr area (c), Greater London area (d) using hourly data (a, c, d) or

weekly averaged data (b). Ozone values for Greater London were best simulated, despite a clear underestimation of NO and NO2 concentrations. PM10 data showed that for London and Rhine Ruhr the maximum concentrations were observed for a high pressure system over Europe. This situation was simulated by all models with the smallest relative error for the PM10 concentrations. Second highest PM10 concentrations were measured for easterly (Rhine-Ruhr) or south-westerly (Greater London) weather types. For these the models performed slightly worse.

(a) (b)

Figure 7.3.2: Difference frequency distribution for ozone (Modelled minus measured) for EMEP background stations (a, b), Rhine-Ruhr area (c), Greater London area (d) using hourly data (a, c, d) or

weekly averaged data (b).

The study concluded that the model performance only little depended on the station site characteristics (rural, sub-urban, urban). The performance was also quite similar for the different weather types. The difference distributions become, however, smaller with increasing averaging time (example in Figure 7.3.1 a,b). The average biases were quite independent. The correlation coefficients, however, increase with increasing averaging time (Examples in Figure 7.3.2).

Task 7.4: Implementation of integrated tools to megacities (lead: WMO with UH-CAIR) The implementation of the integrated model applied to all the MEGAPOLI 1st level megacities as well as some of the megacities in the 2nd levels. The cities and responsible partners involved in the implementation of the integrated models were London (UH-CAIR), Paris (UH-CAIR, TNO, AUTH, FORTH, CNRM, Po-Valley (ARIANET), Rhine-Ruhr (UHam), Lithunia (DMI), St peretersburg metropolitan area (Russia) (DMI), Mexico (FORTH), New York (FORTH), Phoenix (EFDL), Shanghai (UH-CAIR), and New Delhi (IITM).

The Implementation of Integrated models for megacities described various components employed in the integrated modelling systems applied for the air quality modelling. Each integrated system consists of key components which generate meteorological conditions, emission, and chemical data for the air quality simulations. The MEGAPOLI deliverable D7.3 described several different integrated modelling systems applied for the air quality studies on different megacities. An example of an integrated modelling system is shown figure 7.4.1.



Figure 7.4.1: UH-CAIR Integrated modelling system on WRF-CMAQ.

The integrated modelling systems included RAMS-FARM, WRF-CMAQ, LOTOS-EUROS, M_SYS-METRAS-MECTM, MEMO-MARS, GRE-CAPS, Enviro-HIRLAM, MESO-NH, WRF-Chem and ENSEMBLE. The applicability of the integrated modelling systems over the European megacities (London, Paris, Po-Valley, and Rhine-Ruhr) and other cities (Lithunia, St. Petersburg metropolitan area-Russia) studied. The results showed that the integrated modelling system simulated the air pollution events reasonably well when compared to the observations. Figure 7.4.2 depicts the time series of simulated (red) observed (blue) concentrations of O3 and NO2 for 2 days in hourly steps (21-22 June 2005) from the integrated modelling system M_SYS-METRAS-MECTM from 18 stations in the Rhine-Ruhr area. Enviro-HIRLAM employed to study the impact of modification of surface parameters on meteorological fields that affect air pollution dispersion over Vilnius (largest urbanised area in Lithunia). The spatial and temporal variabilities of meteorological fields due to influence of urban effects over St. Petersburg (Russia) have been studied with the Enviro-HIRLAM. GRE-CAPS modelling system applied to study air pollution events over the Mexico and New York city.

(a) (b)

Figure 7.4.2: Time series of simulated (red) observed (blue) concentrations of (a) O3 and (b) NO2 for 2 days in hourly time steps (21-22 June 2005).

The average PM10 concentration field generated by the MEMO-MARS integrated modelling system for the calculations period, as well as the comparisons between time series of predicted PM10 concentrations and observations at two measurement locations, namely La Défence and Paris18e, are presented in Figure 7.4.3. The difference field for PM10 concentrations revealed a clear increase over almost the entire domain, reaching up to 2.5 μg m-3 in the central Paris area and the southern part of the computational domain, where higher pollution loads occur due to



the prevailing wind flow during the simulation period. Comparison between time series of predicted PM10 concentrations and measurements at the locations of AIRPARIF stations within the domain indicate satisfactory agreement, with very small differences between the coupled and non-coupled systems in the estimation of the mean values and the diurnal evolution of the concentrations.

Figure 7.4.3: Difference field between the control and the coupled runs for average PM10 concentrations (left), and concentration time series calculated for the La Défence (lower right) and the

Paris18e (upper right) measurement locations

The chemical transport component (PMCAMx) of GRE-CAPS successfully reproduced high level of nitrate in Mexico city during the study period of March 2006. A study using MM5-CMAQ modelling system over Phoenix, USA found that CMAQ adequately simulate the surface PM10 distribution, while the model generally underestimated the higher concentration and over estimated the lower concentration of PM10. Although these examples show successful application of integrated models to investigate air quality affecting megacities, a number of research developments are required. These include greater consistency in the use of data for megacities, moving towards online or coupled approaches and the need for dedicated and targeted data sets for model evaluation purposes. London case study for future emission and climate scenarios A London case study performed for the year 2050 to investigate the impact of climate change on air quality of London and the surrounding region in the future year. The main elements of the protocols included contributing partners (Met office and UH-CAIR) and the involvement of data availability (TNO and USTUTT) for the future emission. The global climate model output data, HadGEM2-ES provided by the UK Met Office used to drive regional WRF-CMAQ modelling system. HadGEM2-ES is a fully coupled earth system model (HadGEM2-ES) with interactive chemistry from the UKCA model (UK Chemistry and Aerosols www.ukca.ac.uk). The model system includes aerosol scatter and absorb solar and terrestrial radiation (direct effect) and the cloud droplet number (indirect effect), which is capable to evaluate the AQ and CC interactions at the global scale (Collins et al., 2008).



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An interface ’UM-WRF’ developed to ingest HadGEM2-ES output data (in pp format) into WRF and interpolate HadGEM2 data from Hybrid Height into sigma pressure level vertically. Using WRF, HadGEM2-ES data downscaled from 1.25 × 1.875 degree to 18km over the European area and 6km in London area. Vertical interpolation test results in Figure 7.4.4 and WRF 18km output results (2m temperature difference between July 2051 and July 2001 under the RCP8.5 scenario) in Figure 7.4.5 showed that the interface performed well. Future emission data provided by TNO processed using SMOKE emission preparation tool. After all the methodology had been established and fully tested, the WRF-CMAQ system applied for one summer and one winter month for the base year 2005 (equivalent to HadGEM2 2001 ’current climate’) and future years 2030 and 2050. Model simulations for the base years compared to those for three future RCP scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP8.5) to examine the sensitivity of pollutants (focusing on aerosols and O3) to future climate change over the whole European domain and London megacity impact on AQ-CC. Model simulation results for a summer month in Figures 7.4.5 and 7.4.6 show that future year averaging temperature will increase 2.7K over the whole European domain under the RCP8.5 scenario. If without any emission control (using current emission to run the model), ground-level averaging PM10 concentrations over the whole domain increased by 10% by 2050 comparing with those values for the base year (Figure 7.4.6a). However, if emissions can be controlled under the TNO future scenario with ~20% reduced PM emissions, then the future PM10 level slightly reduced by 4% (Figure 7.4.6b) due to increased boundary layer mixing height (~ 0.9%) and wind speed (~ 9%). Similiar trend happens to ground-level PM2.5. As the majority of the work on climate and chemistry interactions has taken place at the global scale, the results from this work



provide higher resolution regional impacts science.

Figure 7.4.5: 2m temperature difference between HadGEM2 future (JUL 2051) and HadGEM2 current (JUL 2001) under RCP8.5 scenario.

Figure 6: Ground-level PM10 difference between HadGEM2 future (JUL 2051) and HadGEM2

current (JUL 2001) under RCP8.5 scenario: (a) Using current emissions and only consider climate change. (b) Using TNO future emission factor (~20% reductions in PM emissions by 2050)

Task 7.5: Recommendations on the scientific analysis of megacity impacts on regional and global air quality and climate (lead: UH-CAIR + all) The recommendations made for the scientific questions are: 1. MEGAPOLI studies recommended that highly detailed local inventories are needed to quantify

correctly the emissions from megacities and the exposure in the megacity. The higher emissions in the megacities always lead to higher exposure, as the population is in the direct vicinity of the source, which could be responsible for asthma in children.

2. The results from MEGAPOLI studies showed that the pollution from megacities are transported over regional and even intercontinental scales and contribute to the pollution levels in other specific regions. It is found that megacities in Europe are the significant contributors to deposition of aerosols (especially absorbing aerosols like soot) in the Arctic, both for the annual and the wintertime deposition.

3. The dominant process affecting the concentration of air pollutants when pollutants are blown and dispersed from megacities is dilution; the rate of dilution rate depends strongly on meteorological conditions. The air pollutants undergo physical and chemical changes as they moving from the megacities; this contributes to increased levels of ozone and secondary particulate matter near megacities.



4. MEGAPOLI has recommended that more work is needed to better determine megacity emissions, such as establishing the inventory development level, improving knowledge about differences in fuels, fuel quality and appliance types between the megacities and the remainder of the country. The megacity emissions analysis showed very distinct characteristics in the main sources of pollutants depending on the geographical regions where the megacities are located.

5. Using a simple analytical technique based on the climate sensitivity computed by complex models, MEGAPOLI estimated that megacities contribute a warming of over 0.2 K after 100 years, with nearly 90% of this due to carbon dioxide emissions, and most of the remaining 10% due to methane.

6. It is found that the contribution of megacities to global pollutant emissions is of the order of 2% - 6% of the total global annual anthropogenic emission flux.

7. The MEGAPOLI results showed that the growth of megacities will considerably affect future urban climate; the analysis of the impact of pollutants such as NOx, VOC and aerosols from megacities on climate under future conditions suggested that, compared to today, the total forcing of these atmospheric pollutants is slightly positive at +0.4±0.11 mW/m2 with a warming impact on future climate that adds to the large impact from CO2.

8. The studies in MEGAPOLI found that the large-scale circulation in the Northern Hemisphere causes megacities in Europe, especially Saint Petersburg, Moscow and the Ruhr Valley to be the most significant contributors to deposition of aerosols (especially absorbing aerosols like soot) in the Arctic; the strong winds in mid-latitude cyclonic and anti-cyclonic systems, along with suppressed vertical mixing, result in long-range, near-surface export of pollutants.

9. MEGAPOLI studies results indicated that indirect effects of aerosols significantly modify meteorological parameters, such as daytime temperatures and height of the planetary boundary layer. NO2 concentrations are moderately affected and the the direct aerosol effect was found to have substantial impact on the turbulence of the flow near the surface. For coastal megacities, increases of land temperature induced by climate change can lead to more intensive and frequent sea breeze events and associated cooler air and fog.

10. MEGAPOLI recommended a hierarchy of urban canopy models/parameterisations for different type and scale models. For urban air pollution, from traffic emissions and for the modelling of in cases of emergencies, there is a great need of vertical profiles of the main meteorological parameters and the turbulence characteristics within the urban canopy. A large number of urban surface energy balance models now exist with different assumptions about the important features of the surface and exchange processes that need to be incorporated.

11. The integrated framework examples in MEGAPOLI showed successful application of integrated models to investigate air quality affecting megacities, but a number of further research developments are needed. MEGAPOLI recommended to work towards better consistency in the use of data for megacities, to move towards online or coupled approaches and to address the need for dedicated and targeted data sets for model evaluation purposes. Prediction of PM remains a challenge and is an important area for continued research. The sensitivity of air quality to feedbacks from climate change interactions needs to be quantified; this will require online coupled models.

12. MEGAPOLI recommended to switch to renewable heat supply in the residential sector, a Europe-wide passenger car toll, expansion of electricity generation from renewable in large combustion plants, replacement of solid fuel fired small combustion plants with efficient combustion techniques, replacement of old gas/oil boilers with modern condensing boilers in the cement industry, combined climate protection measures in the cement industry and promotion of low emission vehicles (E-cars, hybrid vehicles) on a midterm (2030) as well a long term time scale (2050). The measure “energy-efficient modernisation of old buildings” has been identified also as very cost efficient, but is not recommended because of the non- negligible additional health impacts from accumulated indoor pollutants in insulated buildings.




The main result is that the framework for integrating models has been agreed in collaboration with COST 728. Contributions from each partner involved in the WP are summarised below: DMI contributed to development of framework for integrated modelling of air quality and climate impacts of megacities. The framework builds upon the work of COST 728.

A few initiatives for integrated tools do exist in Europe, e.g. ENVIRO-HIRLAM (see for instance Chenevez et al. 2004; Baklanov et al., 2008; Korsholm, 2009), PRISM (Valcke et al. 2006), UKCA (in development, http://www.ukca.ac.uk), COSMOS (in development, http://cosmos.enes.org), M-SYS (Trukenmüller et al., 2004) and would eventually be considered in MEGAPOLI. Similar frameworks are being developed in the USA, such as ESMF (e.g. Dickenson et al. 2002). The WRF-Chem model (Grell et al. 2005), which has been developed within the WRF collaborative framework, will also be considered. This integrated model has been successfully applied to the Mexico City metropolitan area in order to study the origin and evolution of ozone for a pollution event in May 2003 (Tie et al. 2007). The strategy adopted in MEGAPOLI will benefit from the existing integrated frameworks and eventually would be embedded within a European modelling strategy. With the application to megacities in mind, the ‘integration’ needs to be fully achieved down to urban scales (e.g. Baklanov et al. 2002, 2008). MEGAPOLI is thus addressed the difficulties arising from the treatment of the multi-scale and multi-process nature of the integration procedure down to the city scale. Main advantages of on-line & off-line modelling approaches are the following (Baklanov et al., 2008): On-line coupling

• Only one grid; No interpolation in space; • No time interpolation; • Physical parameterizations are the same; No inconsistencies; • All 3D meteorological variables are available at the right time (each time step); No

restriction in variability of meteorological fields; • Possibility to consider feedback mechanisms; • Does not need meteo- pre/post-processors resulting in the reduction of IO operations

Off-line coupling • Possibility of independent parameterizations; • Low computational cost (if meteorology data are already available and no need to run

meteorological model); • More suitable for ensembles and operational activities; • Easier to use for the inverse modelling and adjoint problem; • Independence of atmospheric pollution model runs on meteorological model

computations; • More flexible grid construction and generation for ACT models, • Suitable for emission scenarios analysis and air quality management.

A key issue related to integrated modelling is to decide on the methodologies for coupling the chemistry and transport modules of the models. A step towards standardisation of interfacing was successfully taken for GCM modelling by the European PRISM initiative and their OASIS coupler and similar recent developments. Whether these couplers will become general on the



global scale and will be adapted to the regional and local scale for the general user also in AQ applications remains to be seen in the future. Other interface devices like urban interfaces/postprocessors to MetMs will address more specialized and smaller communities of users. A general recommendation for all designers of interfaces and couplers may be to build interfaces with flexible, generalized input-output interfaces and as modular as possible also concerning their internal structure and contents. Comprehensive documentation as well as user guidelines and workshops will enhance the applicability of the interface. Provision as open-source software will also increase the acceptance and use of these interfaces. FORTH contribution involves mainly the quantitative assessment of the changes in pollutant concentrations for different emission control scenarios for the European target megacities, Mexico City and North-Eastern US. FORTH has investigated the contributions of different sources and source regions to the fine particulate matter concentrations to across the board reductions of the emissions of its major precursors for Mexico City. These insights can guide the development of emission control policies and the corresponding scenarios. FORTH plan during the 2nd year is to use the corresponding emission inventories for different policies/ scenarios and estimate their effects on the gas and particulate pollutant concentrations in our target megacities. ARIANET has built an integrated modelling system and applied it to the Po Valley and the surrounding European area. The modelling system has been configured to analyse the influence of Po Valley emissions at regional scale and the reciprocal effect of regional emissions on the Po Valley air quality. Model simulations have been directed to investigate the Po Valley plume and to define its area of impact during both winter and summer seasons. Secondary inorganic aerosols showed to be among the substances more significatively exported from the Po Valley in both analysed seasons. AUTH performed meteorological runs for Paris with the MEMO model. Use of urban morphology data and a two-way coupling methodology with the microscale model (Tsegas et al, 2008; Tsegas et al, 2009) is being explored for a nested grid of 300 x 300 km2 and 50 x 50 km2 domains. An online version of MEMO/MARS is also being developed to understand aerosol effects. CNRS-LISA has developed a methodology based on CHIMERE modelling systems to simulate meso-to-urban scale chemical pollution transport for the Paris area during the 2009 campaign period. CNRS will also contribute to the London case study and will provide comparative data along with other model simulations. FMI employed off-line SILAM model on European scales to calcluate natural emissions including fires. A morphological database has also been developed for Paris providing finer resolved information for advanced models. UKMetO employed the global climate model HadGEM2 to simulate the impact of megacities on global scales. The model outputs will be used to provide boundary conditions for regional models. In particular a combination of global and regional models will be used for the London case study.



UHam coordinated development a strategy to evaluate the performance of complex models and to quantify the main uncertainties. UHam coordinating this activity based on the framework developed in COST-728. UH-CAIR performed WRF-CMAQ simulations for the Paris campaign study during July 2009 and MEGAPOLI base year 2005. The hourly emission has been prepared for July 2009 and the year 2005. An integration methodology for anthropogenic (TNO), biogenic, fire (FMI), shipping emission (TNO) has been implemented in the WRF-CMAQ modelling system. The sparse Matrix Operator kernel emission (SMOKE) has been used to integrate all the available emission for the modelling system. The model simulations have been performed for the whole European domain with 18 km horizontal resolution and with 34 vertical layers. The datasets generated from the model simulations have been submitted to FMI ensemble system and included that into MEGAPOLI Deliverable D5.3. A study on the comparison of WRF-CMAQ model results with the observations from London and Paris have been presented during 2nd Year MEGAPOLI Meeting, Hamburg, Germany. WRF-CMAQ simulation for Shanghai megacity has been performed for the January and July 2005 with 27 km horizontal simulation. The model performance for the shanghai megacity is included in the MEGAPOLI deliverable D7.3 and will be presented during 3nd Year MEGAPOLI Meeting/ Workshop, Paris, France. The MEGAPOLI deliverable D7.3 on the Implementation of integrated models for megacities has been prepared and submitted it as a MEGAPOLI scientific report. Through collaboration with global climate modellers (Met Office), an integrated framework to quantify the impact of climate change on London’s air quality is performed for the future years. Such a methodology will also allow the influence of global boundary conditions on regional scale air quality to be quantified. In order to investigate the effect of climate change on air quality simulations WRF-CMAQ has been performed with HadGEM2 for 2005 (base year), and 2050. USTUTT is actively developing policy related scenarios as well as mitigation options for use for case studies. Specific applications are being tailored for selected case studies including non-European megacities. WMO provided a direct link between WPs 7 and 8. Outcomes of WP7 were feed into Task 8.3 which deals with a methodology for impact assessment.

Socio-economic relevance and policy implications

Implications of implementing integrated models to address air quality and climate change issues is highly relevant for policy makers and hence to society in general. These implications for society and policy makers include: • improved modelling tools bringing together meteorological, emissions and chemistry-transport modelling; • comprehensive integrated systems based on one-atmosphere approaches which can provide predictions on multiple scales and for multiple pollutants • tools to consider local and regional scales (e.g. long range transport) within a single consistent framework • assessment of policies and measures targeted at multiple pollutants.

Discussion and conclusion WP7 relies on timely outcomes from the other WPs. Each WP leader has been responsible to identify specific deliverables that will facilitate the synergy of knowledge and development of



integrated modelling methodologies that bring together air quality and climate, multiple scales and multiple pollutants. Key developments include: • Requirements for an integrated modelling framework have been developed with

collaboration with COST 728. • An initial selection of megacities and responsible partners has been made. The availability

of emission and measured data is being explored and a common evaluation framework is being developed (in collaboration with COST 728).

• Harmonised approaches: where possible common and harmonised approaches are being implemented. They will include aspects of model evaluation including the use of the ENSEMBLE System (in collaboration with COST 728 and JRC).

• A London case study has been defined to investigate the impact of climate change on air quality within the city and in the surrounding regions.

• Air pollution studies of a number of megacities within Europe and elsewhere. • Application of air quality and climate models for regional scale applications.

List of WP reports, publications, presentations Baklanov A., "Chemical Weather Forecasting: A New Concept of Integrated Modelling". Advances in

Science and Research, 4: 23-27, 2010. Baklanov, A., A. Mahura, R. Sokhi, 2011: Integrated systems of meso-meteorological and chemical transport

models, Springer, 242 p., DOI 10.1007/978-3-642-13980-2 Baklanov A., B. Grisogono, R. Bornstein, L. Mahrt, S. Zilitinkevich, P. Taylor, S.E. Larsen, M.W. Rotach,

H. J. S. Fernando, 2010: The Nature, Theory, and Modeling of Atmospheric Planetary Boundary Layers. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 92(2011), 123–128. doi: 10.1175/2010BAMS2797.1

Baklanov, A., Lawrence, M., Pandis, S., Mahura, A., Finardi, S., Moussiopoulos, N., Beekmann, M., Laj, P., Gomes, L., Jaffrezo, J.-L., Borbon, A., Coll, I., Gros, V., Sciare, J., Kukkonen, J., Galmarini, S., Giorgi, F., Grimmond, S., Esau, I., Stohl, A., Denby, B., Wagner, T., Butler, T., Baltensperger, U., Builtjes, P., van den Hout, D., van der Gon, H. D., Collins, B., Schluenzen, H., Kulmala, M., Zilitinkevich, S., Sokhi, R., Friedrich, R., Theloke, J., Kummer, U., Jalkinen, L., Halenka, T., Wiedensholer, A., Pyle, J., and Rossow, W. B.: MEGAPOLI: concept of multi-scale modelling of megacity impact on air quality and climate, Adv. Sci. Res., 4, 115-120, doi:10.5194/asr-4-115-2010, 2010.

Baklanov A., "Integrated Meteorology and Atmospheric Chemical Transport Modelling Perspectives on Strategy for Hirlam/Harmonie". HIRLAM Newsletter, vol. no. 53, pp. 56-68, (2008).

Baklanov A., U. S. Korsholm, A. Mahura, C. Petersen, A. Gross, "Enviro-HIRLAM: on-line coupled modelling of urban meteorology and air pollution, Advances in Science and Research, Vol. 2, pp. 41-46, (2008).

Baklanov, A., 2009: Chemical weather forecasting: a new concept and methodology of two-way integrated meso-scale modelling. In: Mesometeorology and Air pollution. COST728 Special Issue of Ukr. Hydrometeor. Journal, Vol. 4, pp. 109-120.

Baklanov, A., Aloyan, A., Mahura, A., Arutyunyan, V., Luzan, P., 2011. Evaluation of source-receptor relationship for atmospheric pollutants using approaches of trajectory modelling, cluster, probability fields analyses and adjoint equations. Atmospheric Pollution Research, doi:10.5094/APR.2011.045.

Collins, N. Bellouin, M. Doutriaux-Boucher, N. Gedney, Hinton, C.D. Jones, S. Liddicoat, G. Martin,F. O’Connor, Rae, C. Senior, I. Totterdell, S. Woodward, Reichler, J. Kim and P. Halloran. Evaluation of the HadGEM2 model, Hadley Centre technical note 74, Nov 2008, the UK Met Office.

Conrady, K. (2010): Mittlere Modellgüte verschiedener mesoskaliger Modelle als Funktion der Gitterweite. Bachelorthesis, University of Hamburg.

Francis, X. V., C. Chemel, R.S. Sokhi, E.G. Norton, H.M.A. Ricketts and B.E.A. Fisher (2011) Mechanisms responsible for the build-up of ozone over South East England during the August 2003 heatwave, Atmospheric environment, doi:10.1016/j.physletb.2003.10.071

Francis, X. V., C. Chemel, Y. Yu, X. Kong, R. –M. Hu, R. S. Sokhi (2010), Effect of Megacities on Air-quality and Climate- London and Paris; 2nd year MEGAPOLI meeting at Hamburg, Germany



Grell, G. and A. Baklanov, 2011: Integrated Modeling for Forecasting Weather and Air Quality: A Call for Fully Coupled Approaches. Atmospheric Environment, doi:10.1016/j.atmosenv.2011.01.017.

Haller, M., K.H. Schlünzen, G. Bedbur, K. Conrady, S. Finardi, S. Gimmerthal, D. Grawe, P. Hoffmann, M.Prank, V. Reinhardt, A. Segers, C. Silibello, G. Siour, M. Sofiev, R. Sokhi, M. Uphoff, J. Theloke, X. Vazhappilly-Francis (2011a): Evaluation of concentration simulations for rural and two urban areas. Presentation at UAQCC workshop 16 August 2011, Hamburg

Haller, M., K.H. Schlünzen, G. Bedbur, K. Conrady, S. Finardi, S. Gimmerthal, D. Grawe, P. Hoffmann, M.Prank, V. Reinhardt, A. Segers, C. Silibello, G. Siour, M. Sofiev, R. Sokhi, M. Uphoff, J. Theloke, X. Vazhappilly-Francis (2011b): Evaluation of concentration simulations for remote and two urban areas. EMS2011-555, EMS 2011, 12-16 September 2011, Berlin, Germany.

Haller, M., K.H. Schlünzen, S. Finardi, D. Grawe, P. Hoffmann, M.Prank, A. Segers, C. Silibello, G. Siour, M. Sofiev, R. Sokhi, M. Uphoff, X. Vazhappilly-Francis (2011c): Evaluation of air quality model results for different concentration measures. In preparation for special issue of Meteorol. Z.

http://megapoli.dmi.dk/publ/MEGAPOLI_sr11-03.pdf Hu, R.-M., R.S. Sokhi, B.E.A. Fisher. New algorithms and their application for satellite remote sensing of

surface PM2.5 and aerosol absorption. Journal of Aerosol Science 40 (2009) 394 – 402 Korsholm U.S., A. Baklanov, A. Gross, J.H.Sørensen, "In the importance of the meteorological coupling

interval in dispersion modeling during ETEX-1". Atmos. Environ., 2009, doi: 10.1016/j.atmosenv.2008.11.017.

Kukkonen, J., Balk, T., Schultz, D. M., Baklanov, A., Klein, T., Miranda, A. I., Monteiro, A., Hirtl, M., Tarvainen, V., Boy, M., Peuch, V.-H., Poupkou, A., Kioutsioukis, I., Finardi, S., Sofiev, M., Sokhi, R., Lehtinen, K., Karatzas, K., San José, R., Astitha, M., Kallos, G., Schaap, M., Reimer, E., Jakobs, H., and Eben, K.: Operational, regional-scale, chemical weather forecasting models in Europe, Atmos. Chem. Phys. Discuss., 11, 5985-6162, doi:10.5194/acpd-11-5985-2011, 2011

Monks, P.S., C. Granier, S. Fuzzi, A. Stohl, M. Williams, H. Akimoto, M. Amman, A. Baklanov, U. Baltensperger, I. Bey, N. Blakem, R.S. Blake, K. Carslaw, O.R. Cooper, F. Dentener, D. Fowler, E. Fragkou, G. Frost, S. Generoso, P. Ginoux, V. Grewet, A. Guenther, H.C. Hansson, S. Hennew, J. Hjorth, A. Hofzumahaus, H. Huntrieser, I.S.A. Isaksen, M.E. Jenkin, J. Kaiser, M. Kanakidou, Z. Klimont, M. Kulmala, P. Laj, M.G. Lawrence, J.D. Lee, C. Liousse, M. Maione, G. McFiggans, A. Metzger, A. Mieville, N. Moussiopoulos, J.J. Orlando, C. O?Dowd, P.I. Palmer, D.D. Parrish, A. Petzold, U. Platt, U. Poeschl, A.S.H. Prevot, C.E. Reeves, S. Reimann, Y. Rudich, K. Sellegri, R. Steinbrecher, D. Simpson, H. ten Brink, J. Theloke, G.R. van der Werf, R. Vautard, V. Vestreng, Ch. Vlachokostas, R. vonGlasow (2009): Atmospheric composition change: global and regional air quality. Atmospheric Environment, 43: 5268-5350. doi:10.1016/j.atmosenv.2009.08.021

San José, R., A. Baklanov, R.S. Sokhi, K. Karatzas, J.L. Pérez. Air Quality Modeling. Encyclopaedia of Ecology, 2008, pp. 111-123

Schlünzen K.H. (2010): Joint modelling of obstacle induced and mesoscale changes – Current limits and challenges. CWE2010, Chapel Hill, North Carolina, 23 – 27 May 2010.

Schlünzen K.H. (2010): The urban system and climate change - Approaches used at the KlimaCampus Hamburg, WMO-GURME workshop in Shanghai, 14 October 2010

Schlünzen K.H., M. Haller (Eds) (2011): Evaluation of Integrated Tools. MEGAPOLI Scientific Report 11-03, MEGAPOLI-29-REP-2011-03, 51p, ISBN: 978-87-92731-07-4

Schlünzen K.H., P. Hoffmann, D. Grawe, S. Kolusu (2010): Climate change and urban climate, Asien-Afrika-Institut (AAI) of Hamburg University, 10 January 2010

Sokhi R S (ed) Atmospheric Environment Urban Air Quality - Selected Papers from the 6th International Conference on Urban Air Quality. Volume 43, Issue 31, pp. 4669-4854 (October 2009)



3.8. WP8: Mitigation, policy options and impact assessment Coordinated by R. Friedrich (USTUTT) and D. van den Hout (TNO) MEGAPOLI Partners involved: FORTH, MPIC, ARIANET, CNRS, TNO, MetO, UHam, UH-CAIR, USTUTT, WMO, UCam

Summary of progress toward objectives There are two WP8 objectives – O8.1: Analysis and assessment of mitigation options and of policy options to efficiently reduce health and climate change impacts caused by releases of substances to the air in megacities; and O8.2: Development and application of a methodology and a tool for impact assessment – on which the MEGAPOLI teams were focused. During the reporting period the analysis and assessment of mitigation and policy options to efficiently reduce health and climate change impacts caused by releases of air pollutants in megacities had been performed. The 1st level MegaCities (MCs) - London, Paris, Po Valley, and Rhine-Ruhr area - were in a special focus. A city interview protocol (available upon request) developed during the 1st reporting period has been applied to the 1st level MCs. The protocol intended to collect information on locally (that is in the MC of choice) available future environmental and urban planning scenarios as well as scenarios for future emissions. After data collection through interviews using the protocol the results has been evaluated concerning available information for the scenario work. In Deliverable 8.2 has been conducted an impact assessment of mitigation and policy options based on a full chain approach for the first level Megacities of London, Paris, Rhine-Ruhr and the Po Valley. The assessment of policy and mitigation options was based on the simultaneous assessment of all relevant changes in damages and risks caused by the option (and not on the potential, e.g., with regard to the reduction of a single pollutant). The estimation of health, ecosystem, materials and climate change impacts were based on the current state of knowledge as currently analysed in other EC projects. The transformation of results into monetary units allowed carrying out cost-benefit analyses. The result was a ranking of specific measures based on their specific cost efficiency. Mainly on base of the results from Deliverable 8.2 have been answered in Deliverbale 8.3 the scientific questions in MEGAPOLI concerning the impact assessment and exposure modeling for the first level megacities Po Valley, Rhine-Ruhr, London and Paris. Policy options and mitigation measures generally influence the emissions of more than one pollutant, thus for assessing such measures their multi-pollutant impacts have been taken into account. The specific issues were distinguished into short-, mid- and long-term, and also as related to city and urban planning as well as to exposure. The main result of the analysis conducted in Deliverable 8.3 was the identification of the most efficient measures for improving air quality and climate change impacts in the 1st level MCs. Additonally has been done some urban planning and development analysis for the Rhine-Ruhr area and London.


Deliverable 8.1 - Short, medium and long term abatement and mitigation strategies for megacities In this deliverable have been identified and described relevant abatement measures for the 1st level Megacities. The abatement measures have been developed for air pollutants and greenhouse gases from the sectors small combustion, large combustion, industry, road transport and other mobile machineries. The abatement potential, cost and Synergies/interactions with



other environmental objectives (e.g. climate change) and the implementation options of all measures have been assessed. The implementation of mitigation options was grouped into short (2010/2020), medium (2020/2030) and long (2050) term related measures. 9 measures related to road transport, 4 measures related to other mobile sources, 2 measures related to Large combustion plants, 5 measures concerning small and medium combustion plants and 4 industrial related measures for the concerned MegaCities have been identified and decribed in this deliverable. Kampffmeyer T., U. Kugler, M. Uzbasich, J. Theloke, R. Friedrich, D. van den Hout (2011): Short, Medium and Long Term Abatement and Mitigation Strategies for Megacities. Deliverable D8.1, MEGAPOLI Scientific Report 11-06, MEGAPOLI-32-REP-2011-05, 40p, ISBN: 978-87-92731-10-4 http://megapoli.dmi.dk/publ/MEGAPOLI_sr11-06.pdf

Deliverable 8.2 - Impact assessment of mitigation and policy options An impact assessment of mitigation and policy options based on a full chain approach for the first level Megacities London, Paris, Rhine-Ruhr and the PoValley has been conducted. The assessment of policy and mitigation options have been based on the simultaneous assessment of all relevant changes in damages and risks caused by the option (and not on the potential, e.g., with regard to the reduction of a single pollutant). The estimation of health, ecosystem, materials and climate change impacts was based on the current state of knowledge as currently analysed in other EC projects. The transformation of results into monetary units allowed carrying out cost-benefit analyses. The result was a ranking of specific measures based on their specific cost efficiency.

Roos, J., J. Theloke, S. Torras-Ortiz, T.Kampffmeyer, U. Kugler, M. Uzbasich, A. Kuhn, K. Schenk, R. Friedrich, D. van den Hout (2011): Impact Assessment of Mitigation and Policy Options Deliverable D8.2, MEGAPOLI Scientific Report 11-20, MEGAPOLI-46-REP-2011-09, 33p, ISBN: 978-87-92731-24-1

http://megapoli.dmi.dk/publ/MEGAPOLI_sr11-20.pdf Deliverable 8.3 - Assessment of policy strategies

To answer the scientific questions in MEGAPOLI a full integrated assessment for the first level megacities Po Valley, Rhine-Ruhr, London and Paris has been conducted. Policy options and mitigation measures generally influence the emission of more than one pollutant, thus for assessing such measures all effected impacts have been taken into account. In addition, especially the relationship between climate change and air pollution was important, and for the first time analyzed by an integrated assessment in this project. The integration occurs: • across impacts, especially climate change impacts and air pollution impacts, including

health risks and ecosystem damage; • across pollutants and emission sources, e.g. transport, energy conversion, industry,

households, PM10, PM2.5, ozone, acid substances, nutrients, greenhouse gases, and others; • across scales: local, urban, regional, global; short, medium and long term. The cost efficiency has been assessed in terms of a cost benfit analysis of 9 different measure bundles. The result of this comprehensive analysis was that the identifying of the most efficient measures for improving air quality and climate change impacts in 1st level MCs on different time scales. For the energy efficient modernisation of old buildings by insulation has been found, that if the indoor exposure are also taken into account the effect of this measure turn over to additional health impacts due to accumulation of indoor air sources because air-tighter building envelopes the DALYs caused by indoor and outdoor air sources increase drastically. This example, despite



all the involved uncertainties, shows that it is important to ensure a sufficient air exchange rate for buildings, especially when they are renovated. Additional the 1st level MCs were analysed based on their structure: 1) Polycentric structure => Po Valley and Rhine-Ruhr area, and 2) Centric structure => London and Paris. The Rhine-Ruhr area and the London area were evaluated using existing data bases and information about the assumed future urban development in these areas. The available data and required resources and data bases for the assessment of climate change impact to future urban development were evaluated. The options for assessing the climate change impact to urban land use change were also evaluated. It was also found that the future threshold requirements of the Air Quality Directive (2008/50/EC will be not reached by several European countries. Without additional measures it will not be possible to fulfil the requirements for particulate matter (PM10 and PM2.5) under all meteorological conditions. The National Emission Ceilings (NEC) defined in the NEC directive (2001/81/EC) will also not be fulfilled by some European countries. Theloke, J., J. Roos, T. Kampffmeyer, U. Kugler, A. Kuhn, K. Schenk, R. Friedrich, D. van den Hout, J. Ossenbrügge, S. Schempp (2011): Assessment of Policy Strategies Deliverable D8.3, MEGAPOLI Scientific Report 11-20, MEGAPOLI-46-REP-2011-09, 33p, ISBN: 978-87-92731-24-1 http://megapoli.dmi.dk/publ/MEGAPOLI_sr11-20.pdf During the 3rd year the MEGAPOLI partners finalised Tasks: 8.1 (Mitigation and policy options; lead: USTUTT), 8.2 (Interaction with megacities administration and other stakeholders; lead: TNO), and 8.3 (Methodology and tool for impact assessment; lead: USTUTT).

Task 8.1: Mitigation and policy options (lead: USTUTT, TNO) – Results of this Task 8.1 are

described in Deliverable 8.1 (see above). Task 8.2: Interaction with megacities administration and other stakeholders (lead: TNO) – A

survey about the availability of megacity specific scenario information has been conducted in the four 1st level MegaCities (MC). It showed that assumptions about the development of future emissions until 2050 are only available for London. For the Po valley emission projections until 2020 exist on base of the GAINS-Italy model (http://www.pbl.nl/images/RAINS_ Italy_Project tcm 60-21207.pdf). For Paris and Rhine-Ruhr area the emission scenarios for future years have not been identified. Thus, the emission scenarios for future years for the 1st level MC have been generated by down-scaling the emissions to the city areas from the European database.

Task 8.3: Methodology and tool for impact assessment (lead: USTUTT) – The results of this Task

are described in Deliverable 8.2 (see above) and applied for realisation of Deliverable 8.3.


TNO developed a city interview protocol in collaboration with UHam (protocol is available upon request). The protocol intends to collect information on locally (that is in the MC of choice) available future environmental and urban planning scenarios as well as scenario’s for future emissions. After data collection through interviews using the protocol TNO and UHam have synthesized the results and provided the information on to the colleagues responsible for the scenario work within WP8. Such interviews have been conducted for the level 1 MCs.



UHAM has analysed the existing information about ueban planning and development for the Rhine-Ruhr area and London. ARIANET established contacts with people in the technical departments of the Regional Environmental Protection Agencies of the Po Valley region and Lombardy Regional Government to fulfill the investigation performed within WP8 and obtain the interview of responsible persons on the basis of the protocol prepared by TNO. ARIANET has carried out an inventory of the existing emission scenarios analyses at national and sub-national scale in Italy. As the Po Valley is not enclosed in a unique administrative unit, there are no coherent studies concerning future emissions scenarios over the whole area. Some Italian Regions (the sub national administrative units in charge for air quality management) and some of the largest municipalities are working on future scenarios, but there is not yet a homogeneous and univocal approach. The analysis of the existing studies and available integrated assessment tools carried to identify the use of GAINS-Italy scenarios as the most feasible approach and starting point to develop MEGAPOLI scenarios. Currently established air quality measures concerning domestic heating and traffic sectors have bee documented with main focus on Lombardy Region and Milan municipality that implements the unique Italian experience on pollution charge applied on the city center. USTUTT contributed to Establishing contacts to Departments in the Rhine-Ruhr Area; development of Short, medium and long term abatement and mitigation strategies for megacities, Development and applying an impact assmessment tool and identifying policy strategies for the 1st level MCs. has supported the development of the city interview and dissemination to the MEGAPOLI partners. USTUTT (together with TNO) was responsible for structuring and organizing the work in WP8 to the other WP participants. USTUTT has been ensured the needed linkages to other WPs, especially WP1 (Emissions) and WP7 (Integration). USTUTT has established contacts to the Environmental agencies in the Rhine-Ruhr area. The basic idea is to focus on all cities in the Ruhr area and additional cities forming the Rhine area which are the largest one (e.g. Cologne, Düsseldorf, etc.). The Rhine-Ruhr area has been analyzed and described in details under socio-economic aspects. The MCs related mitigation and policy options for further assessment have been collected, described and analysed in Deliverbale 8.1. USTUTT has developed a methodology for impact assessement of MC related mitigation options. On base of this methodology have been identified policy strategies for the 1st level MCs. CNRS has established contacts to Administration of Paris, AIRPARIF, which will provide the needed contacts to the adminstrative units in the Paris region (City of Paris, plus Region Île-de-France) Meanwhile, in the absence of existing well-defined urban scenarios for Paris at the horizon of 2030-2050, CNRS also provided a document summarizing the possible tendencies for the evolution of the urban area of the city. This document was based on the results of a large consultation set up by the French government which provided a social, architectural, economical and environmental vision of the future Paris Megacity as proposed by ten architects and their pluridisciplinary teams. UH-CAIR (together with KCL) has established contacts to the Administration of London. FORTH contributed to quantitative assessment of changes in pollutant concentrations. FORTH contribution involves mainly the quantitative assessment of the changes in pollutant concentrations for different emission control scenarios for the European target megacities, Mexico City and North-Eastern US.



FORTH has investigated the contributions of different sources and source regions to the fine particulate matter concentrations to across the board reductions of the emissions of its major precursors for Mexico City. These insights can guide the development of emission control policies and the corresponding scenarios. It was concluded that local emissions have a small contribution to the sulfate levels in the city, but they do dominate the ammonium nitrate formation. Reductions of both NH3 and/or NOx are quite efficient in reducing ammonium nitrate levels in this area. There is surprisingly large contribution to Mexico City organic aerosol levels from biomass burning in the surroundings of the city. Aromatic hydrocarbons are a major source of secondary organic aerosol. Also dust from the dried lake Texcoco makes a significant contribution to the PM10 levels in the northeast part of the city. The official emissions for the industrial area of Tula (northwest of Mexico City) appear to have been seriously overestimated. MPI contributed to studying current and future impacts of megacities on global atmospheric chemistry. MPI has applied three well-known future scenarios towards studying the current and future impacts of megacities on global atmospheric chemistry (Butler and Lawrence, 2009), which provide baseline information for use towards understanding local and regional mitigation options. MetO, WMO and UCam teams contribution included input data for realisation of the tasks for mitigation and policy options; interaction with megacities administration and other stakeholders; and methodology and tool for impact assessment.

Socio-economic relevance and policy implications Contacts have been established with the Po Valley area Regional Environmental Protection Agencies, whom expressed their interest for supporting the MEGAPOLI project. The meeting with AIRPARIF (the emission and air quality authority in Paris) was organised where the MEGAPOLI project was presented. Through the established collaboration the access to local (Ile de France) spatial planning institutes necessary for scenario development may result. A Socio-Economic analysis of the Rhine-Ruhr area and London has been done, and contacts to the relevant administrative units have been established. In general, there is a great interest at local emission authorities for assessing mitigation and policy options. A full cost-benefit analysis for 24 MC related mitigation options has been conducted. On base of this the most cost efficient policy strategies for the 1st level MCs have been identified

Discussion and conclusion WP8 has finalized all its tasks in the project, including the finalization of the deliverables. In summary WP8 has identified the most cost-efficient policy strategies for improve the air quality in 1st level MCs. This has been conducted by applying a full chain approach for impact assessment of MC related mitigation option on different time scales. 24 abatement measures from different anthropogenic sectors have been developed with mitigation potentials of GHG and Air Pollutants in the 1st level MCs (greater London, Paris, the Po Valley and the Rhine-Ruhr-area and the whole European domain) (Kampffmeyer et al., 2011). The result was a ranking of different measures distinguished by different MCs and future years (2030 and 2050). In this report the cost efficiency has been assessed in terms of a cost benfit analysis of 9 different measure bundles. The result of this comprehensive analysis was that the most efficient measures for improving air quality and climate change impacts in 1st level MCs are the following: For 2030:



• Switch to renewable heat supply in residential sector • A European wide passenger car toll • Expansion of electricity generation from renewables in large combustion plants • Replacement of solid fuels fired small combustion plants with efficient combustion

techniques • Replacement of old gas/oil boilers with modern condensing boilers in cement industry • Combined climate protection measures in cement industry

For 2050 • Switch to renewable heat supply in residential sector • Expansion of electricity generation from renewables in large combustion plants • European wide passenger car toll • Replacement of solid fuels fired small combustion plants with efficient combustion

techniques • Promotion of low emission vehicles (E-cars, hybrid vehicles)

Additionally the 1st level MCs were analysed based on their structure: 1) Polycentric structure => Po Valley & Rhine-Ruhr area, and 2) Centric structure => London & Paris. The Rhine-Ruhr area and the London area were evaluated using existing data bases and information about the assumed future urban development in these areas. The available data and required resources and data bases for the assessment of climate change impact to future urban development were evaluated. The options for assessing the climate change impact to urban land use change were also evaluated. The measure “energy-efficient modernisation of old buildings” has been identified also as very cost efficient due to the identified and not negligible additional health impacts from accumulated indoor pollutants in insulated buildings.

List of WP reports, publications, presentations Theloke1 J, J. Roos, U. Kugler, K. Schenk, T. Kampffmeyer, M. Uzbasich, S. Torras-Ortiz, A. Kuhn, R.

Friedrich, D. van den Hout Major policy related results from the MEGAPOLI project, Contribution to the 8th International Conference Air Quality - Science and Application, Athens, 19 - 23 March 2012, 2012

Kampffmeyer T., U. Kugler, M. Uzbasich, J. Theloke, R. Friedrich, D. van den Hout (2011): Short, Medium and Long Term Abatement and Mitigation Strategies for Megacities. Deliverable D8.1, MEGAPOLI Scientific Report 11-06, MEGAPOLI-32-REP-2011-05, 40p, ISBN: 978-87-92731-10-4, 2011

Roos, J., J. Theloke, S. Torras-Ortiz, T. Kampffmeyer, U. Kugler, M. Uzbasich, A. Kuhn, K. Schenk, J. Theloke, R. Friedrich, D. van den Hout (2011): Impact Assessment of Mitigation and Policy Options. Deliverable D8.2, MEGAPOLI Scientific Report 11-20, MEGAPOLI-46-REP-2011-09, 120p, ISBN: 978-87-92731-24-1, 2011

J. Theloke, J. Roos, T. Kampffmeyer, U. Kugler, A. Kuhn, K. Schenk, R. Friedrich, D. van den Hout, J. Ossenbrügge, S. Schempp (2011): Assessment of Policy Strategies, Deliverable D8.3, MEGAPOLI Scientific Report 11-21, MEGAPOLI-46-REP-2011-09, 33p, ISBN: 978-87-92731-26-5 http://megapoli.dmi.dk/publ/MEGAPOLI_sr11-21.pdf, 2011

Wagner S., M. Blesl, J. Roos, W. Müller, A. Kuhn, P. Preiss, R. Friedrich, Environmental and health impacts of biomass production driven by climate policies in the EU-27, Contribution to the NitroEurope Final Conference, Edinburgh, 2011

Builtjes, P., W. Jörß, R. Stern, J. Theloke, Strategien zur Verminderung der Feinstaubbelastung, Zusammenfassender Abschlussbericht, FKZ 206 43 200/01, 2010

Kuhlbusch, T., U. Quass, J. Theloke, R. Friedrich, H. Herrmann, R. Jaenicke, V. Després Quellen von Feinstäuben, in: Feinstaub - Statuspapier, Hrsg. GDCh-/KRdL-/ProcessNet-Gemeinschaftsausschuss “Feinstäube” (Vorsitzende: Prof. Dr.-Ing. Klaus-Gerhard Schmidt, Duisburg und Prof. Dr. Reinhard Zellner, Essen), 2010, ISBN-Nr.: 978-3-89746-120-8, 2010

Butler T. M. and M. G. Lawrence, The influence of megacities on global atmospheric chemistry: a modelling study, Environ. Chem. 2009, 6, 219–225. doi:10.1071/EN08110



Klotz, V., Theloke, J., Thiruchittampalam, B., Kugler, U., Geftler, T., Uzbasich, M., Köble, R., Friedrich, R., Dämmgen, U., Stern, R., Builtjes, P., Denier van der Gon, H., Kuhn, A., (2009): An integrated measure-based approach to fulfil European air quality targets cost-effective on a national level - First results of the German PAREST-project. TFIAM Meeting, 10. Juni, Bilthoven, Niederlande

Kugler, U., Theloke, J., Thiruchittampalam, B., Geftler, T., Uzbasich, M., Köble, R., Friedrich, R., Builtjes, P., Denier van der Gon, H., Stern, R., Jörß, W., Dämmgen, U. and J. Appelhans (2009): Abatement strategies to reduce air pollution from transport in Germany. Presentation, International Conference on Transport, Atmosphere and Climate (TAC-2), 22-25 June 2009, Aachen, Germany

Kummer, U., Pacyna, J., Pacyna, E. and R. Friedrich (2009): Assessment of heavy metal releases from the use phase of road transport in Europe. Atmospheric Environment 43 (2009), 640– 647, Elsevier

Pregger, T., Friedrich, R. (2009): Effective pollutant emission heights for atmospheric transport modelling based on real-world information. Environmental Pollution 157, S. 552-560

Theloke, J. (2009): Compilation of emission inventories in high resolution for Germany. PM 2.5 Workshop, April, Bilthoven, Niederlande

Theloke, J., Fantke, P., Friedrich, R., Kummer, U., Nitter, S., Pacyna, E.G., Pacyna, J., Strzelecka-Jastrzab, E., Thiruchittampalam, B. (2009): A Heavy metal and POP inventory for Europe. TFHTAP Meeting, März, St. Petersburg, Russland

Theloke, J., Thiruchittampalam, B., Geftler, T., Kummer, U., Uzbasich, M., Wagner, S., Friedrich, R., Köble, R. (2009): Emissionsinventare als Grundlage der Ursachenermittlung und Erfassung von Luftbelastungen. Mitt Umweltchem Ökotox, 15. Jahrg. 2009/ Nr. 2, S. 33-35, Hrsg. Gesellschaft Deutscher Chemiker (GDCh), Frankfurt am Main

Thiruchittampalam, B., Köble, R., Latoska, A., Theloke, J., Uzbasich, M., Kugler, U., Geftler, T., Wagner, S., Friedrich, R. (2009): Fossil Fuel emission modelling - Approach and Results for Carbon Dioxide in Europe. 8th International Carbon Dioxide Conference, September, Jena

Wagner, S., Beletskaya, O., Kummer, U., Theloke, J., Angenendt, E., Friedrich, R., Zeddies, J. (2009): Assessment of mitigation measures for air pollutants and greenhouse gases from agricultural systems in Germany at high spatial resolution. AgSAP-Konferenz, 10.-12. März, Egmond an Zee, Niederlande



4. List of the MEGAPOLI project meetings, dates and venues

The main MEGAPOLI related meetings and other events during the 3rd year of the project are listed in this section. Note that there are also many other small-scale and short-term MEGAPOLI project related meetings organized between partners, collaborators, end-users, WPs, modelling teams, etc. (see details for each WP in Chapter 3 “Work progress and achievements during the period”)

Workshops for potential end-users to highlight the project progress achieved

During the 3rd year of the project, three end-user workshops were organized to highlight the project progress achieved during the project duration. The 2nd End-User Workshop “Integration of geospheres in earth systems: Modern queries to environmental physics, modelling, monitoring & education” and joint meeting of the three projects: EU TEMPUS Qualimet, EU FP-7 projects PBL-PMES and MEGAPOLI, and Russian partner project MEGAPOLIS took place in Dubrovnik, Croatia (30 Apr - 3 May 2011). Contact person – Alexander Baklanov ([email protected]), DMI team. The 3rd End-User Workshop “Urban Air Quality and Climate Change Workshop” (organized jointly with WMO; 16-18 Aug 2011; Hamburg, Germany) have focused on the different aspects and interactions of urban air quality and climate change with focus on the urban areas of Beijing, Cairo, Cape Town, Chicago, Delhi, Detroit/Windsor area, Hamburg, Istanbul, Lagos, London, Los Angeles, Melbourne, Mexico City, Moscow, Mumbai, New York, Paris, Pearl River Delta, Po Valley, Rheine-Ruhr, Santiago del Chile, Shanghai, St. Petersburg, Tokyo-Yokohama. Contact person - Heinke Schluenzen (contact: [email protected]), UHam team. The 4th End-User Workshop linked with the Final MEGAPOLI Symposium (organized by CNRS-LISA team; 26-28 Sep 2011) aimed at to present major results achieved within the project and , and to discuss the issue of atmospheric pollution in and from megacities; to give a broader picture of research performed within the field with a focus on the Paris agglomeration (where two major campaigns in July 2009 and Jan-Feb 2010); to address the impact of selected European and worldwide megacities on atmospheric composition, air quality and climate, including scenarios of future megacity. Contact person – Matthias Beekmann (contact: [email protected]), CNRS-LISA team.

Special sessions at major international meetings

During the 3rd year, special sessions related to MEGAPOLI were arranged at the (i) European Geosciences Union (EGU-2011) General Assembly (Apr 2011, Vienna, Austria); and (ii) European Meteorological Society (EMS-2011) Annual Meeting (Sep 2011, Berlin, Germany). Moreover, the MEGAPOLI project results are planned to be presented as well at the special sessions of the EGU-2012, EMS-2012, and AirQuality-2012 conferences.

Demonstration of improved tools and project achievements

The improved tools and project achievements were demonstrated to European city authorities and other end-users from developing country megacities and international organizations, e.g. IPCC, EUROCITY, EUMETNET, GURME, and EEA. MEGAPOLI participated and sent contributions to the EC Air Policy Review.



Special issues for project publication in peer-reviewed journals

Submission of the MEGAPOLI related manuscripts for the: • “Atmospheric Environment” journal; arranged for publications (together with CityZen,

COST Actions 728 and ES0602) based on papers given at the 7th International Conference on “Air Quality - Science and Application” (Mar 2009, Istanbul, Turkey) – published;

• “Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics” (ACP) special issue entitled “Megacities: air quality and climate impacts from local to global scales" (http://www.atmos-chem-phys-discuss.net/special_issue129.html) – is in progress;

• “Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics” (ACP) special issue entitled "MEGAPOLI-Paris 2009/2010 campaign" (http://www.atmos-chem-phys-discuss.net/special_issue139.html) – is in progress;

• “Geofizika” journal; based on papers presented at the international workshop “Integration of geospheres in earth systems: Modern queries to environmental physics, modelling, monitoring & education” (Apr 2011, Dubrovnik, Croatia) – is in progress;

• “Meteorologische Zeitschrift”; based on papers presented at the international workshop “Urban Air Quality & Climate Change” (Aug 2011, Hamburg, Germany) – is in progress;

About 70 per-reviewed sci. papers were published and more publications are coming. The MEGAPOLI brochure “MEGAPOLI: Answers on scientific questions” (400 copies) will be published in beginning of 2012 for distribution among scientific, public, and end-user communities.

Dissemination and collaboration with the FP7 EC CityZen sister project

At the beginning of the project, after the joint Telephone Conference (Jan 2009) and presentation of the sister project in MEGAPOLI Newsletters #2, at the MEGAPOLI public web-site a joint (mirror) link “Joint Activities with CityZen” had been arranged (http://megapoli.dmi.dk/meet/cityzenlinks_main.html) and continuously updated. During the 3rd year the special session on Megacities and 3rd joint splinter meetings (including also MILAGRO project) were organized at the European Geosciences Union Annual General Assemblies - EGU-2011 (5 Apr 2011) in Vienna, Austria. Members of the sister project were invited to relevant WPs meetings; the free-access was provided to the MEGAPOLI scientific reports on deliverables; contributions/ manuscripts to special issues; IGAC assessment joint contribution/writing; member of the CityZen project have also participated in the Final MEGAPOLI Symposium (26-28 Sep 2011; Paris, France) and presented their results as well.

List of the MEGAPOLI project meetings, dates and venues

1-2 Nov 2010 – 2nd Annual MEGAPOLI Meeting (KlimaCampus, University of Hamburg; Hamburg, Germany; attended around 50 persons). Venue included oral presentations on all MEGAPOLI WPs and 4 key (Paris, London, Po Valley, and Rhine-Ruhr area) Megacities in Focus; MEGAPOLI advisory and steering group meeting; parallel specific meeting and discussions on WPs 5, 7, 8; discussions in thematic groups on different scale studies (global, regional, and local) followed by summary presentations from each group and linkage between groups; discussions on the 3rd year MEGAPOLI plans; collaborative projects/ external partners oral presentations; summarization of items/ topics of the 2nd year reporting; discussions on planned/ written articles, special issues, meetings, etc.; the final 3rd Annual MEGAPOLI Meeting/ Workshop is planned for Sep 2011 (Paris, France) lead by CNRS-LISA team; (given



oral presentations and summaries of WPs and Thematic Groups are available at internal web-site).

13 Jan 2011 - 6th MEGAPOLI WP Leaders telephone conference (participated 19 persons); issues discussed included: current status and progress by WPs (deliverables, milestones, tasks, etc.); plans for AMS-2011 (Seattle, USA; Jan 2011), EGU-2011 (Vienna, Austria; Apr 2011), UAQCC (Hamburg, Germany, Aug 2011), and 3rd Annual MEGAPOLI Meeting (Paris, France; Sep 2011); plans for publications in special issues and sci. journals (summary notes are available at internal website).

4-5 Apr 2011 – MEGAPOLI related sessions AS3.6 "Megacities: Air Quality and Climate Impacts from Local to Global Scales" (Convener: Michael Gauss, Co-Conveners: Luisa Molina, Alexander Baklanov) at the European Geosciences Union General Assembly 2011 (EGU-2011, Vienna, Austria, 3-8 Apr 2011) with invited talk on MEGAPOLI by Spyros Pandis (FORTH Team). Oral session - from 8.30 till 17.00; and poster session - from 17.00 till 19.00; MEGAPOLI (selected presentations are available at the internal website). MEGAPOLI/ CityZen/ MILAGRO joint splinter meeting; attended - 27 persons (MEGAPOLI - 16; CityZen - 8; MILAGRO - 1; other projects - 2) from 13 countries and from 22 research organizations/ institutions. On 5th Apr 2011, the MEGAPOLI working meetings with scientific presentations, and progress and finalization of tasks, deliverables, and milestones have been discussed.

26-28 Apr 2011 – WP3: Megacity plume case study meeting/ workshop at Paul Scherrer Institute, PSI (Villigen, Switzerland); attended 50 persons; institutions involved - from LISA, IPLS, INERIS, LSC, Marseille University (France), MPIC (Germany), University of Cork (Ireland), University of Patras (Greece), University of Helsinki (Finland), PSI (Switzerland), DMI/ Technalia (Spain), and others; given presentations included - emissions and source apportionment, gasphase analysis, aerosol chemical speciation, aerosol physics and chemistry, inter-comparison of the measurements, data quality, quantification of uncertainty in the measurements at different sites and modelling (summary notes are available at internal web-site).

30 Apr - 3 May 2011 – International workshop “Integration of geospheres in earth systems: Modern queries to environmental physics, modelling, monitoring & education” and joint meeting of the three projects: EU TEMPUS Qualimet, EU FP-7 projects PBL-PMES and MEGAPOLI, and Russian partner project MEGAPOLIS took place in Dubrovnik, Croatia (given presentations and summary notes are available at the internal website).

24 May 2011 – 7th MEGAPOLI WP leaders telephone conference (participated 18 persons); issues discussed included: current status and progress by WPs (deliverables, milestones, tasks, etc.); plans for UAQCC (Hamburg, Germany, Aug 2011), and Final MEGAPOLI Symposium (Paris, France; Sep 2011); plans for publications in special issues and sci. journals (summary notes are available at internal web-site).

16-18 Aug 2011 – Urban Air Quality and Climate Change Workshop, UAQCC (organized jointly with WMO; held in Hamburg, Germany) have focused on the different aspects and interactions of urban air quality and climate change with focus on the urban areas worldwide (more information is available on the workshop web-site: http://www.klimacampus.de/?id=1785).

19 Aug 2011 – 8th MEGAPOLI WP leaders telephone conference (participated 12 persons); issues discussed included: Final and Periodic MEGAPOLI Project Reporting to EU; current status and progress by WPs (deliverables, milestones, tasks, etc.); plans for the Final MEGAPOLI Symposium (Paris, France; Sep 2011); plans for publications in special issues and sci. journals, brochure with answers on scientific questions and volume of the newsletters (summary notes are available at internal web-site).

12-16 Sep 2011 - special session ASI11 "Environmental Meteorology (from local to global)" (serving as a dissemination forum for the COST Actions 728, ES0602 (ENCWF), ES0603 (EUPOL) and ES1004 (EuMetChem), the GMES-projects MACC and FP7 projects



MEGAPOLI and PASODOBLE, and EUMETNET WG-ENV) at the 11th Annual Meeting of the European Meteorological Society (EMS-2011) held in Berlin, Germany

26-28 Sep 2011 – Final MEGAPOLI Symposium (26-28 Sep 2011; Paris, France; attended more than 100 persons from 17 countries from 54 research organizations, 36 oral and 20 poster presentations; 6 sessions including poster sessions; panel discussions, and final management meeting); event was organized in order to present major results achieved within the project; to discuss the issue of atmospheric pollution in and from megacities with a wider audience of researchers and end-users; to give a broader picture of research performed within the field with a particular focus on the Paris agglomeration (where two major campaigns in July 2009 and Jan-Feb 2010 were conducted); to address the impact of selected European and worldwide megacities on atmospheric composition, air quality and climate, including scenarios of future megacity development; to discuss relevance of the project scientific achievements for decision makers as well as future key research needs. (given presentations and summary notes are available at the internal website).

18 Oct 2011 – 9th MEGAPOLI WP leaders telephone conference; issues discussed included: Final and Periodic MEGAPOLI Project Reporting to EU; finalization of all WPs deliverables, milestones, tasks, etc.); plans for future MEGAPOLI relevant publications in special issues and sci. journals, brochure with answers on scientific questions (summary notes are available at internal web-site).



Previous MEGAPOLI Reports Previous reports from the FP7 EC MEGAPOLI Project can be found at:

http://www.megapoli.info/

Collins W.J. (2009): Global radiative forcing from megacity emissions of long-lived greenhouse gases. Deliverable 6.1, MEGAPOLI Scientific Report 09-01, 17p, MEGAPOLI-01-REP-2009-10, ISBN: 978-87-992924-1-7


Denier van der Gon, HAC, AJH Visschedijk, H. van der Brugh, R. Dröge, J. Kuenen (2009): A base year (2005) MEGAPOLI European gridded emission inventory (1st version). Deliverable 1.2, MEGAPOLI Scientific Report 09-02, 17p, MEGAPOLI-02-REP-2009-10, ISBN: 978-87-992924-2-4


Baklanov A., Mahura A. (Eds) (2009): First Year MEGAPOLI Dissemination Report. Deliverable 9.4.1, MEGAPOLI Scientific Report 09-03, 57p, MEGAPOLI-03-REP-2009-12, ISBN: 978-87-992924-3-1


Allen L., S Beevers, F Lindberg, Mario Iamarino, N Kitiwiroon, CSB Grimmond (2010): Global to City Scale Urban Anthropogenic Heat Flux: Model and Variability. Deliverable 1.4, MEGAPOLI Scientific Report 10-01, MEGAPOLI-04-REP-2010-03, 87p, ISBN: 978-87-992924-4-8 http://megapoli.dmi.dk/publ/MEGAPOLI_sr10-01.pdf

Pauli Sievinen, Antti Hellsten, Jaan Praks, Jarkko Koskinen, Jaakko Kukkonen (2010): Urban Morphological Database for Paris, France. Deliverable D2.1, MEGAPOLI Scientific Report 10-02, MEGAPOLI-05-REP-2010-03, 13p, ISBN: 978-87-992924-5-5 http://megapoli.dmi.dk/publ/MEGAPOLI_sr10-02.pdf

Moussiopoulos N., Douros J., Tsegas G. (Eds.) (2010): Evaluation of Zooming Approaches Describing Multiscale Physical Processes. Deliverable D4.1, MEGAPOLI Scientific Report 10-03, MEGAPOLI-06-REP-2010-01, 41p, ISBN: 978-87-992924-6-2 http://megapoli.dmi.dk/publ/MEGAPOLI_sr10-03.pdf

Mahura A., Baklanov A. (Eds.) (2010): Hierarchy of Urban Canopy Parameterisations for Different Scale Models. Deliverable D2.2, MEGAPOLI Scientific Report 10-04, MEGAPOLI-07-REP-2010-03, 50p, ISBN: 978-87-992924-7-9 http://megapoli.dmi.dk/publ/MEGAPOLI_sr10-04.pdf

Dhurata Koraj, Spyros N. Pandis (2010): Evaluation of Zooming Approaches Describing Multi-scale Chemical Transformations. Deliverable D4.2, MEGAPOLI Scientific Report 10-05, MEGAPOLI-08-REP-2010-01, 29p, ISBN: 978-87-992924-8-6 http://megapoli.dmi.dk/publ/MEGAPOLI_sr10-05.pdf

Igor Esau (2010): Urbanized Turbulence-Resolving Model and Evaluation for Paris. Deliverable D2.4.1, MEGAPOLI Scientific Report 10-06, MEGAPOLI-09-REP-2010-03, 20p, ISBN: 978-87-992924-9-3 http://megapoli.dmi.dk/publ/MEGAPOLI_sr10-06.pdf



Grimmond CSB., M. Blackett, M.J. Best, et al. (2010): Urban Energy Balance Models Comparison. Deliverable D2.3, MEGAPOLI Scientific Report 10-07, MEGAPOLI-10-REP-2010-03, 72p, ISBN: 978-87-993898-0-3 http://megapoli.dmi.dk/publ/MEGAPOLI_sr10-07.pdf

Gerd A. Folberth, Steve Rumbold, William J. Collins, Tim Butler (2010): Determination of Radiative Forcing from Megacity Emissions on the Global Scale. Deliverable D6.2, MEGAPOLI Scientific Report 10-08, MEGAPOLI-11-REP-2010-03, 19p, ISBN: 978-87-993898-1-0 http://megapoli.dmi.dk/publ/MEGAPOLI_sr10-08.pdf

Thomas Wagner, Steffen Beirle, Reza Shaiganfar (2010): Characterization of Megacity Impact on Regional and Global Scales Using Satellite Data. Deliverable D5.1, MEGAPOLI Scientific Report 10-09, MEGAPOLI-12-REP-2010-03, 25p, ISBN: 978-87-993898-2-7 http://megapoli.dmi.dk/publ/MEGAPOLI_sr10-09.pdf

Baklanov A., Mahura A. (Eds.) (2010): Interactions between Air Quality and Meteorology, Deliverable D4.3, MEGAPOLI Scientific Report 10-10, MEGAPOLI-13-REP-2010-03, 48p, ISBN: 978-87-993898-3-4 http://megapoli.dmi.dk/publ/MEGAPOLI_sr10-10.pdf

Baklanov A. (Ed.) (2010): Framework for Integrating Tools. Deliverable D7.1, MEGAPOLI Scientific Report 10-11, MEGAPOLI-14-REP-2010-03, 68p, ISBN: 978-87-993898-4-1 http://megapoli.dmi.dk/publ/MEGAPOLI_sr10-11.pdf

Sofiev M., Prank M., Vira J., and MEGAPOLI Modelling Teams (2010): Provision of global and regional concentrations fields from initial baseline runs. Deliverable D5.2, MEGAPOLI Technical Note 10-12, MEGAPOLI-15-REP-2010-03, 10p. http://megapoli.dmi.dk/publ/MEGAPOLI_sr10-12.pdf

H.A.C. Denier van der Gon, J. Kuenen, T. Butler (2010): A Base Year (2005) MEGAPOLI Global Gridded Emission Inventory (1st Version). Deliverable D1.1, MEGAPOLI Scientific Report 10-13, MEGAPOLI-16-REP-2010-06, 20p, ISBN: 978-87-993898-5-8

http://megapoli.dmi.dk/publ/MEGAPOLI_sr10-13.pdf Lawrence M. G., Butler T. M., Collins W., Folberth G., Zakey A., Giorgi F. (2010): Meteorological

Fields for Present and Future Climate Conditions. Deliverable D6.5, MEGAPOLI Technical Note 10-14, MEGAPOLI-17-REP-2010-09, 9p.

http://megapoli.dmi.dk/publ/MEGAPOLI_sr10-14.pdf Beekmann M., Baltensperger U., and the MEGAPOLI campaign team (2010): Database of

Chemical Composition, Size Distribution and Optical Parameters of Urban and Suburban PM and its Temporal Variability (Hourly to Seasonal). Deliverable D3.1, MEGAPOLI Scientific Report 10-15, MEGAPOLI-18-REP-2010-10, 21p, ISBN: 978-87-993898-6-5 http://megapoli.dmi.dk/publ/MEGAPOLI_sr10-15.pdf

Beekmann M., Baltensperger U., and the MEGAPOLI campaign team (2010): Database of the Impact of Megacity Emissions on Regional Scale PM Levels. Deliverable D3.4, MEGAPOLI Scientific Report 10-16, MEGAPOLI-19-REP-2010-10, 29p, ISBN: 978-87-993898-7-2 http://megapoli.dmi.dk/publ/MEGAPOLI_sr10-16.pdf

Kuenen J., H. Denier van der Gon, A. Visschedijk, H. van der Brugh, S. Finardi, P. Radice, A. d’Allura, S. Beevers, J. Theloke, M. Uz-basich, C. Honoré, O. Perrussel (2010): A Base Year (2005) MEGAPOLI European Gridded Emission Inventory (Final Version). Deliverable D1.6,



MEGAPOLI Scientific Report 10-17, MEGAPOLI-20-REP-2010-10, 37p, ISBN: 978-87-993898-8-9 http://megapoli.dmi.dk/publ/MEGAPOLI_sr10-17.pdf

Karppinen A., Kangas L., Riikonen K., Kukkonen J., Soares J., Denby B., Cassiani M., Finardi S., Radice P., (2010): Evaluation of Methodologies for Exposure Analysis in Urban Areas and Application to Selected Megacities. Deliverable D4.4, MEGAPOLI Scientific Report 10-18, MEGAPOLI-21-REP-2010-11, 29p, ISBN: 978-87-993898-9-6 http://megapoli.dmi.dk/publ/MEGAPOLI_sr10-18.pdf

Soares J., A. Karppinen, B. Denby, S. Finardi, J. Kukkonen, M. Cassiani, P. Radice, M.Williams (2010): Exposure Maps for Selected Megacities. Deliverable D4.5, MEGAPOLI Scientific Report 10-19, MEGAPOLI-22-REP-2010-11, 26p, ISBN: 978-87-92731-00-5 http://megapoli.dmi.dk/publ/MEGAPOLI_sr10-19.pdf

Rumbold S.T., W.J. Collins, G.A. Folberth (2010): Comparison of Coupled and Uncoupled Models. Deliverable D6.4, MEGAPOLI Scientific Report 10-20, MEGAPOLI-23-REP-2010-11, 15p, ISBN: 978-87-92731-01-2 http://megapoli.dmi.dk/publ/MEGAPOLI_sr10-20.pdf

Baklanov A., Mahura A. (Eds) (2010): Second Year MEGAPOLI Dissemination Report. Deliverable D9.4.2, MEGAPOLI Scientific Report 10-21, MEGAPOLI-24-REP-2010-12, 89p, ISBN: 978-87-92731-02-9


Moussiopoulos N., Douros J., Tsegas G. (Eds) (2010): Evaluation of Source Apportionment Methods. Deliverable D4.6, MEGAPOLI Scientific Report 10-22, MEGAPOLI-25-REP-2010-12, 54p, ISBN: 978-87-92731-03-6


Theloke J., M.Blesl, D. Bruchhof, T.Kampffmeyer, U. Kugler, M. Uzbasich, K. Schenk, H. Denier van der Gon, S. Finardi, P. Radice, R. S. Sokhi, K. Ravindra, S. Beevers, S. Grimmond, I. Coll, R. Frie-drich, D. van den Hout (2010): European and megacity baseline scenarios for 2020, 2030 and 2050. Deliverable D1.3, MEGAPOLI Scientific Report 10-23, MEGAPOLI-26-REP-2010-12, 57p, ISBN: 978-87-92731-04-3


Galmarini S., Vinuesa J.F., Cassiani M., Denby B., Martilli A., (2011): Evaluation of Sub-Grid Models with Interactions between Turbulence and Urban Chemistry. Recommendations for Emission Inventories Improvement. Deliverable D2.6, MEGAPOLI Scientific Report 11-01, MEGAPOLI-27-REP-2011-01, 41p, ISBN: 978-87-92731-05-0


Butler T., H.A.C. Denier van der Gon, J. Kuenen (2011): The Base Year (2005) Global Gridded Emission Inventory used in the EU FP7 Project MEGAPOLI (Final Version). Deliverable D1.5, MEGAPOLI Scientific Report 11-02, MEGAPOLI-28-REP-2011-01, 27p, 978-87-92731-06-7


Schlünzen K.H., M. Haller (Eds) (2011): Evaluation of Integrated Tools. Deliverable D7.2 MEGAPOLI Scientific Report 11-03, MEGAPOLI-29-REP-2011-03, 50p, 978-87-92731-07-4

http://megapoli.dmi.dk/publ/MEGAPOLI_sr11-03.pdf Sofiev M., M. Prank, J. Kukkonen (Eds) (2011): Evaluation and Improvement of Regional Model

Simulations for Megacity Plumes. Deliverable D5.3, MEGAPOLI Scientific Report 11-04, MEGAPOLI-30-REP-2011-03, 88p, 978-87-92731-08-1



http://megapoli.dmi.dk/publ/MEGAPOLI_sr11-04.pdf Baltensperger U., Beekmann M., and the MEGAPOLI campaign team (2011): Source

Apportionment of Major Urban Aerosol Components Including Primary and Secondary PM Sources. Deliverable D3.2, MEGAPOLI Scientific Report 11-05, MEGAPOLI-31-REP-2011-05, 20p, ISBN: 978-87-92731-09-8 http://megapoli.dmi.dk/publ/MEGAPOLI_sr11-05.pdf

Kampffmeyer T., U. Kugler, M. Uzbasich, J. Theloke, R. Friedrich, D. van den Hout (2011): Short, Medium and Long Term Abatement and Mitigation Strategies for Megacities. Deliverable D8.1, MEGAPOLI Scientific Report 11-06, MEGAPOLI-32-REP-2011-05, 40p, ISBN: 978-87-92731-10-4 http://megapoli.dmi.dk/publ/MEGAPOLI_sr11-06.pdf

Folberth G.A., S. Rumbold, W.J. Collins, T. Butler (2011): Regional and Global Climate Changes due to Megacities using Coupled and Uncoupled Models. Deliverable D6.6, MEGAPOLI Scientific Report 11-07, MEGAPOLI-33-REP-2011-06, 18p, ISBN: 978-87-92731-11-1 http://megapoli.dmi.dk/publ/MEGAPOLI_sr11-07.pdf

Petetin H., M. Beekmann, V. Michoud, A. Borbon, J.-F. Doussin, A. Colomb, A. Schwarzenboeck, H. Denier van der Gon, C. Honore, A. Wiedensohler, U. Baltensperger, and the MEGAPOLI Campaign Team (2011): Effective Emission Factors for OC and BC for Urban Type Emissions. Deliverable D3.3, MEGAPOLI Scientific Report 11-08, MEGAPOLI-34-REP-2011-06, 30p, ISBN: 978-87-92731-12-8 http://megapoli.dmi.dk/publ/MEGAPOLI_sr11-08.pdf

Folberth G.A., S. Rumbold, W.J. Collins, T. Butler (2011): Estimate of Megacity Impacts in a Future Climate. Deliverable D5.7, MEGAPOLI Scientific Report 11-09, MEGAPOLI-35-REP-2011-06, 21p, ISBN: 978-87-92731-13-5 http://megapoli.dmi.dk/publ/MEGAPOLI_sr11-09.pdf

Eckhardt S., M. Cassiani, A. Stohl (2011): Influence of North American Megacities on European Atmospheric Composition. Deliverable D5.6, MEGAPOLI Scientific Report 11-10, MEGAPOLI-36-REP-2011-06, 28p, ISBN: 978-87-92731-14-2 http://megapoli.dmi.dk/publ/MEGAPOLI_sr11-10.pdf

Cassiani M., Stohl S., Eckhardt S., Sovief M., Prank M., Butler T., Lawrence M., Collins W.J., Folberth G.A., Rumbold S., Pyle J.A., Russo M.R., Stock Z., Siour G., Coll I., D’Allura A., Finardi S., Radice P., Silibello C. (2011): Prediction of Megacities Impact on Regional and Global Atmospheric Composition. Deliverable D5.4, MEGAPOLI Scientific Report 11-11, MEGAPOLI-37-REP-2011-06, 55p, ISBN: 978-87-92731-15-9 http://megapoli.dmi.dk/publ/MEGAPOLI_sr11-11.pdf

Sofiev M., M. Prank, A. Baklanov (Eds) (2011): Influence of Regional Scale Emissions on Megacity Air Quality. Deliverable D5.5, MEGAPOLI Scientific Report 11-12, MEGAPOLI-38-REP-2011-06, 60p, ISBN: 978-87-92731-16-6 http://megapoli.dmi.dk/publ/MEGAPOLI_sr11-12.pdf

Hannukainen M., de Leeuw G., Collins W.J. (2011): Comparison of Measured and Modeled Radiative Effects. Deliverable D6.3, MEGAPOLI Scientific Report 11-13, MEGAPOLI-39-REP-2011-08, 22p, ISBN: 978-87-92731-17-3 http://megapoli.dmi.dk/publ/MEGAPOLI_sr11-13.pdf

Esau I., Baklanov A., Zilitinkevich S. (2011): Improved Urban Parameterizations Based on Prognostic Equations, Utilizing LES Results. Deliverable D2.5, MEGAPOLI Scientific Report 11-14, MEGAPOLI-40-REP-2011-09, 61p, ISBN: 978-87-92731-18-0 http://megapoli.dmi.dk/publ/MEGAPOLI_sr11-14.pdf



Esau I. (2011): Improved Urban Parameterizations Based on Prognostic Equations, Utilizing LES Results. Deliverable D2.4.2. MEGAPOLI Scientific Report 11-15, MEGAPOLI-41-REP-2011-09, 47p, ISBN: 978-87-92731-19-7 http://megapoli.dmi.dk/publ/MEGAPOLI_sr11-15.pdf

Borbon A., E. Freney, N. Marchand, M. Beekmann, E. Abidi, W. Ait-Helal, A. Colomb, J. Cozic, N. Locoge, S. Sauvage, K. Sellegri, B. Temine-Roussel, J. Sciare, V. Gros, J.L. Jaffrezo, U. Baltensperger, and the MEGAPOLI campaign team (2011): Evaluation of Links between Secondary VOCs and Secondary Organic Aerosols of Anthropogenic and Biogenic Origin. Deliverable D3.5, MEGAPOLI Scientific Report 11-16, MEGAPOLI-42-REP-2011-09, 42p, ISBN: 978-87-92731-20-3 http://megapoli.dmi.dk/publ/MEGAPOLI_sr11-16.pdf

Beekmann M., C. Fountoukis, Q.J. Zhang, S. N. and the MEGAPOLI campaign team (2011): Evaluation of State-of-the-Art CTMs Using New Experimental Datasets. Deliverable D3.6, MEGAPOLI Scientific Report 11-17, MEGAPOLI-43-REP-2011-09, 28p, ISBN: 978-87-92731-21-0; http://megapoli.dmi.dk/publ/MEGAPOLI_sr11-17.pdf

Beekmann M., C. Fountoukis, R. Timmermans, Q.J. Zhang, S. N. Pandis, H.D. van der Gon , A. Segers, C. Honoré, O. Perrussel, P. Builtjes , M. Schaap and the MEGAPOLI Campaign Team (2011): Implementation of Improved Parameterizations of BC, OC Emissions and Secondary PM Formation in CTMs. Deliverable D3.7, MEGAPOLI Scientific Report 11-18, MEGAPOLI-44-REP-2011-09, 30p, ISBN: 978-87-92731-22-7 http://megapoli.dmi.dk/publ/MEGAPOLI_sr11-18.pdf

Galmarini S., J.F. Vinuesa, M. Cassiani (2011): Improved Parameterization of Dispersion due to Sub-grid Heterogeneities in Emission for Different Scale Models. Deliverable D2.7, MEGAPOLI Scientific Report 11-19, MEGAPOLI-45-REP-2011-09, 16p, ISBN: 978-87-92731-23-4 http://megapoli.dmi.dk/publ/MEGAPOLI_sr11-19.pdf

Roos J., J. Theloke, S. Torras-Ortiz, T.Kampffmeyer, U. Kugler, M. Uzbasich, A. Kuhn, K. Schenk, R. Friedrich, D. van den Hout (2011): Impact Assessment of Mitigation and Policy Options. Deliverable D8.2, MEGAPOLI Scientific Report 11-20, MEGAPOLI-46-REP-2011-09, 117p, ISBN: 978-87-92731-24-1 http://megapoli.dmi.dk/publ/MEGAPOLI_sr11-20.pdf

Francis X.V., Sokhi R.S. (Eds) (2011): Implementation of Integrated Models for Megacities. Deliverable D7.3, MEGAPOLI Scientific Report 11-21, MEGAPOLI-47-REP-2011-09, 74p, ISBN: 978-87-92731-25-8 http://megapoli.dmi.dk/publ/MEGAPOLI_sr11-21.pdf

Theloke J., J. Roos, T. Kampffmeyer, U. Kugler, A. Kuhn, K. Schenk, R. Friedrich, D. van den Hout, J. Ossenbrügge, S. Schempp (2011): Assessment of Policy Strategies. Deliverable D8.3, MEGAPOLI Scientific Report 11-22, MEGAPOLI-48-REP-2011-09, 121p, ISBN: 978-87-92731-26-5 http://megapoli.dmi.dk/publ/MEGAPOLI_sr11-22.pdf

Francis X.V., Sokhi R.S., Baklanov A., Lawrence M. (Eds.) (2011): Synthesis of Results and Recommendation on Key Science Questions and Use of Models According to Complexity. Deliverable D7.4, MEGAPOLI Scientific Report 11-23, MEGAPOLI-49-REP-2011-09, 49p, ISBN: 978-87-92731-28-9 http://megapoli.dmi.dk/publ/MEGAPOLI_sr11-23.pdf

Baklanov A., Mahura A. (Eds) (2011): Third Year MEGAPOLI Dissemination Report. Deliverable D9.4.3, MEGAPOLI Scientific Report 11-24, MEGAPOLI-50-REP-2011-10, 104p,




MEGAPOLI

Megacities: Emissions, urban, regional and Global

Atmospheric POLlution and climate effects, and Integrated

tools for assessment and mitigation

EC FP7 Collaborative Project

2008-2011

Theme 6: Environment (including climate change) Sub-Area: ENV-2007.1.1.2.1:

Megacities and regional hot-spots air quality and climate

MEGAPOLI Project web-site http://www.megapoli.info

MEGAPOLI Project Office Danish Meteorological Institute (DMI) Lyngbyvej 100, DK-2100 Copenhagen, Denmark

E-mail: [email protected] Phone: +45-3915-7441 Fax: +45-3915-7400

MEGAPOLI Project Partners

• DMI - Danish Meteorological Institute (Denmark) - Contact Persons: Prof. Alexander Baklanov (coordinator), Dr. Alexander Mahura (manager)

• FORTH - Foundation for Research and Technology, Hellas and University of Patras (Greece) - Prof. Spyros Pandis (vice-coordinator)

• MPIC - Max Planck Institute for Chemistry (Germany) - Dr. Mark Lawrence (vice-coordinator)

• ARIANET Consulting (Italy) – Dr. Sandro Finardi • AUTH - Aristotle University Thessaloniki (Greece)

- Prof. Nicolas Moussiopoulos • CNRS - Centre National de Recherche Scientifique

(incl. LISA, LaMP, LSCE, GAME, LGGE) (France) – Dr. Matthias Beekmann

• FMI - Finnish Meteorological Institute (Finland) – Prof. Jaakko Kukkonen

• JRC - Joint Research Center (Italy) – Dr. Stefano Galmarini

• ICTP - International Centre for Theoretical Physics (Italy) - Prof. Filippo Giorgi

• KCL - King's College London (UK) – Prof. Sue Grimmond

• NERSC - Nansen Environmental and Remote Sensing Center (Norway) – Dr. Igor Esau

• NILU - Norwegian Institute for Air Research (Norway) – Dr. Andreas Stohl

• PSI - Paul Scherrer Institute (Switzerland) – Prof. Urs Baltensperger

• TNO-Built Environment and Geosciences (The Netherlands) – Prof. Peter Builtjes

• MetO - UK MetOffice (UK) – Dr. Bill Collins • UHam - University of Hamburg (Germany) – Prof.

Heinke Schluenzen • UHel - University of Helsinki (Finland) – Prof.

Markku Kulmala • UH-CAIR - University of Hertfordshire, Centre for

Atmospheric and Instrumentation Research (UK) – Prof. Ranjeet Sokhi

• USTUTT - University of Stuttgart (Germany) – Prof. Rainer Friedrich

• WMO - World Meteorological Organization (Switzerland) – Dr. Liisa Jalkanen

• CUNI - Charles University Prague (Czech Republic) – Dr. Tomas Halenka

• IfT - Institute of Tropospheric Research (Germany) – Prof. Alfred Wiedensohler

• UCam - Centre for Atmospheric Science, University of Cambridge (UK) – Prof. John Pyle

Work Packages

WP1: Emissions (H. Denier van der Gon, P. Builtjes)

WP2: Megacity features (S. Grimmond, I. Esau)

WP3: Megacity plume case study (M. Beekmann, U. Baltensperger)

WP4: Megacity air quality (N. Moussiopoulos)

WP5: Regional and global atmospheric composition (J. Kukkonen, A. Stohl)

WP6: Regional and global climate impacts (W. Collins, F. Giorgii)

WP7: Integrated tools and implementation (R. Sokhi, H. Schlünzen)

WP8: Mitigation, policy options and impact assessment (R. Friedrich, D. van den Hout)

WP9: Dissemination and Coordination (A. Baklanov, M. Lawrence, S. Pandis)

megapoli sr11-24 vf.pdf

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