mega trends - india 2-2-12
TRANSCRIPT
Mega Trends In IndiaMega Trends In India
Macro to Micro Implications of Top Mega Trends in India To 2020Macro to Micro Implications of Top Mega Trends in India To 2020
Sarwant Singh, Partner
Archana Amarnath, Program Manager
Visionary Innovation Research GroupVisionary Innovation Research Group
2 February 2012
Today’s Presenters
Sarwant Singh
Partner
Frost & Sullivan
2
Archana AmarnathProgram ManagerFrost & Sullivan
Agenda
Introduction and Definition of Mega Trends
3
Presentation of Top Mega Trends of the Future
Macro to Micro: How To Apply Mega Trends within Your Organization to Develop Growth Strategies
Three Main Trends in Urbanization: Development of Mega Cities, Mega Regions and Mega Corridors
4
MEGA CITY
City With A Minimum Population of 8 Million
and GDP of $250 Billion in 2025 (13
Mega Cities in 2011 and 25 Mega Cities in
2025)
EXAMPLE: Greater Mumbai
MEGA REGIONS
Cities Combining with Suburbs to Form Regions. (Population over 15 Million)
EXAMPLE: National Capital Region of Delhi (includes New Delhi, Noida, Greater
Noida, Ghaziabad, Gurgaon, Faridabad)
MEGA CORRIDORS
Corridors Connecting Two Major Cities or Mega
Regions, 60 km or more apart, and with a combined population of 25 million or
more
EXAMPLE: Delhi-Mumbai Corridor with a population of
203.57 Million in 2025
Around 38% of the Total Population (534.8 million) in India to Live in Urban Regions in 2025: Cities to Account for 70% of India’s GDP in 2030
Haryana 46.31%
Urbanization Rate of Highly Urban States and Mega Cities in India in 2025
Delhi 98.8%28.5 million
Madhya Pradesh
Punjab 52.50%
West Bengal 35.13%
Mega Cities in 2025
Emerging Mega Cities (over 4 million population in 2025)
Ahmadabad 7.56 million
Kanpur 4.6 million
Jaipur4.29 million
Key:
UrbanizationRate
Contribution toCountry’s Urban
Population in 2025
Highly Urban States
>30% 69%
Medium Urban States
25-30% 24%
Low Urban States
<25% 7%
Andhra Pradesh 34.02%
Gujarat 53.04%
Karnataka 49.29%
Madhya Pradesh 34.80%
Maharashtra 61.01%
Tamil Nadu 74.78%
35.13%
Note: Mega City is defined as a city with population of over 8 million and GDP of $250 Billion and above
Source: Department of Economic Affairs, Ministry of Finance, India and Frost & Sullivan, 2011
Mumbai 25.8 million
Kolkata 20.1 million
Pune6.79 million
Surat5.70 million
Chennai 9.9 million
Bangalore9.57 million
Hyderabad9.09 million
Mega Connection: India to see 8 Mega Corridors by 2021
Guwahati-Jorhat (NA)
Delhi Mumbai Industrial Corridor (204)
Amritsar-Jalandhar (NA)
Udaipur-Kota (NA)
Delhi-Chandigarh (NA)
Delhi-Jaipur (NA)
Delhi-Agra (NA)
Delhi-Dehradun (NA)
Delhi-Bareily (NA)
Mehsana-Valsa (48)
Ahmedabad- Junagarh
Jamnagar-Bhuj (4)
Lucknow-Kanpur (NA)
Kolkata to Cuttack (NA)
Ahmedabad- Junagarh(6)
Bhavnagar-Porbandar (4)
Mumbai-Ahmedabad (58)
Mumbai-Nagpur (26)
Pune-Jalgaon (7.6)
Bangalore-Belgaum (38.5)
Mysore-Kolar (8.6)
Mangalore-Karwar
Hyderabad-Hindupur (29.1)
Hyderabad- Vijaywada (10.3)
Hyderabad-Adilabad (2.8)
Srikakulum-Nellore (25.3)
Chennai-Hosur (30.4)
Coimbatore-Krishnagiri (13.4)
Chennai- Karaikud (4.9)
Tuticorin- Nagercoil (2.8)
Population greater than 25 million
Population less than 25 millionSource: Population Foundation of India.
Planning Commission of India
Note: Corridors Connecting Two Major Cities or Mega Regions, 60 km or more apart, and with a
combined population of 25 million or more
The figures in brackets represent population in Million units
Cities, and Not Countries, Will Drive Wealth Creation in the Future
What are the Micro Implications ?
• High Economic Power With 85% of Scientific and Technology Innovation from These Cities
Fast Forward City Facts: Did You Know?.....
• Cities like Seoul account for 50% of the country’s GDP; Budapest (Hungary) and Brussels (Belgium) each for roughly 45%.
• Today’s cities use 75% of the world’s energy and are responsible for 80% of energy-related carbon impact.
Innovation from These Cities
• Hub and Spoke Business Model will evolve with Logistics, Healthcare, Retail and many other industries
• New Mobility Solutions like Bike and car sharing, Integrated Door-to-Door Solutions
• Transit oriented development and zoning
• 11 cities in India to have more than 4 million population
• Huge opportunity for Indian companies to create partnerships with Western/Japanese companies to develop city management capabilities
-914
-6,673
-211
9,498
-7,481
4,026
1,788
5,737
796
6,968
Italy
Japan
Korea, Republic of
Mexico
Russian Federation
Saudi Arabia
South Africa
Turkey
United Kingdom
United States
India to have the Highest Increase in Working Age Population (15-64 years) Globally (2010-2020) at 119 million, and will be a Source of Competitive Advantage
2,143
1,016
13,096
513
11,945
-167
-2,568
119,143
18,619
-914
-10000 10000 30000 50000 70000 90000 110000 130000
Argentina
Australia
Brazil
Canada
China
France
Germany
India
Indonesia
Italy
Source: United Nations,2011
Population (thousand)
Note: The figures here represent only the net increase in working age population. In absolute terms, China will still account for a greater level of population in the 15-64 years age group (988 million) compared to India (923 million) in 2020
The Middle Bulge: Middle Class Individuals to Account for 62% of India’s Population (864 Million Individuals) in 2020
2020
1,399 Million Individuals
2010
1,219 Million Individuals
Rs.20,00,000 ($44,000)
Rs.50,00,000 ($110,000)
Rs.100,00,000 ($220,000)
> Rs.1,00,00,000 ($220,000)
0.1%(1)
0.1%(1)
Affluent
Rich
Super Rich
Income Per Annum
0.4%(5)
3%(45)
1%(10)
0.4%(5)
Source: National Council for Applied Economic Research (NCAER), and Frost & Sullivan
Note: Figures in the brackets are million individualsPoverty Line based on planning commission definition of poverty – Rs 4,365 per month per household
Rs. 3,40,000 ($7,500)
Rs. 1,50,000 ($3,200)
Rs. 10,00,000 ($22,000)
Rs. 52,000 ($1,000)
1%(12)
Below Poverty
Line
Poor
Lower Middle Class
Middle Class
Upper Middle Class
36%
(500)
28%(390)
6%
(85)
19%(269)
7%(95)
<Rs. 52,000 ($1,000)
Poverty Line
37%(456)
30%(359)
18%(228)
13%(157)
Generational Political Shift: India will be in the Cusp of Another Gen-Shift in Politics in 2015
1st Generation 2nd Generation 3rd Generation 4th Generation
LEADERS
?
1930-50s 1960- 1970s 1980-1990 2015+
THOUGHT PROCESS
• Secularism• Socialist Economic
Policies
• Left Wing Economic Policy
• Promotion of Agricultural Productivity
• Nationalization of Banks
• Economic Liberalization• Modernization of
Telecom and Space Industry
• Improved Relations with US, EU
• Birth of IT/Software Sector (Outsourcing)
• Platform for Economic Growth
• Youth Empowerment• Transparency in Politics• More Privatization• Upgrade of Infrastructure• Service-Oriented
Economy• Independent and Modern
Thought Process
MILESTONES• Indian
Independence (1947)
• Republic of India (1950)
• First Nuclear Test (1974)• Green Revolution • 20-Point Programme
• One of Fastest Growing Economies
• Birth of Special Economic Zones
• Potential Super power (GDP >7- 8%),
Next-Gen Politics in India: Younger and Urbanized Intellectual Leaders to be the Future Agents of Change
Tech Savvy: Using Internet as a tool to change society.
Eg. Facebook
Educated Abroad: • Eg. Rahul Gandhi (Harvard and
Cambridge), AmethiConstituency, INC
• Jyotiraditya Scindia (Harvard and Stanford), Lok Sabha
To Lead World’s Youngest Population in 2020: India to Have 61% of its population (0.85
billion) less than 35 years (Total Indian population is 1.39 billion in 2020)
Young Brigade of Indian Politicians
• Milind Deora (Boston University), Lok Sabha
• Sachin Pilot (Wharton Business school), Ajmer Constituency, INC
• Agatha K. Sangma (Nottingham University),MP
Global Outlook: Exposure to Western Education and understanding of Global
Competiveness in International Market
Revitalizing Policies and Electoral Make-Up with Modern Thoughts and Pragmatism: Opening up of Sectors such as Automotive,
ITeS
2010 2020Users Of Top Social Networking Sites, (India), 2010 and
2020
Non- Internet Users
Internet Users 81 Million
706.1 Million
227 Million
15 Million
1138 Million
693.4 Million
Non-Internet Users
Internet Users
1
55 Million
4.9 Million
Total: 1,219 MillionTotal: 1,219 Million Total: 1,399 MillionTotal: 1,399 Million
2
Six Degrees Apart: Social Networking Users to Reach 554.72 Million in India in 2020: Facebook to Become Number 1 with 227 Million Users
24.30Million
56.7 Million
Non Social Networking Users
554.72 MillionSocial
Networking Users
138.68Million
2010 2020Non Social
Networking Users
Social Networking
Users
6 Million
49 Million
2010 2020
3
2010 2020
4.9 Million
4ORKUT
44 Million20 Million
2010 2020
Source: Socialbakers.com, comscore linkedin.com, facebook.com, twitter.in, orkut.com, teck.in, Frost & Sullivan
Connected India: India is Expected to have 1.5 billion Connected Devices in 2020
Total pay-TVsubscribers expected to
reach 166 million by 2015 and 190 million by
2020
A ten-fold increase in broadband subscribers
10.29 million (2010) 100 million (2014)
The mobile subscriber base
910 million(2014)
4G Rollout Could Start by 2012
100 million 3G broadband subscribers
by 2015
Internet users
81 million (2010)
237 million (2015)
910 million(2014)
Source: International Telecommunications Union and Frost & SullivanImages: Google Images
Around 1.4 Million Connected Cars in
2020
India’s GDP vs Population Levels: GDP to Reach $4.6 Trillion in 2020; India is Expected to Record a GDP Growth of 10.1% in 2020; Making it One of the Fastest Growing Economies Globally
$4.60 Trillion
$2.74 Trillion
$1.63 Trillion
6.0%6.0%
6.3 %6.3 %
8.5 %8.5 %
10.1 %10.1 %
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Population (Million) 857 922 1003 1080 1219 1318 1399
Real GDP (Growth (%)) 6.0 5.2 6.3 7.0 8.5 9.5 10.1
Per Capita Income ($) 377.51 395.90 474.92 748.76 1,338.7 2,077.5 3284.5
$0.32 Trillion
$0.48 Trillion$0.37 Trillion
$0.81 Trillion
Note: GDP at Market PricesSource: IMF, World Bank, economy watch, RBI, ICRIER, Planning Commission, Frost & Sullivan
6.0%6.0%
130.0
41.0
15.4
356.4
20.5
7.7
178.5
2012-2017Infrastructure Investments (India), 2007 - 2017
$1,024 Billion
2007-2012
$513 Billion
327.7356.4
200
300
400
500
600In
ve
stm
en
t in
$ B
illi
on
2012-2017
2007-2012
India Infrastructure Investment Trends (2007-2017)
164.1
153.6
164.1
77.0
65.2
20.5
Source: Planning Commission and Frost & Sullivan
Twelfth Five Year Plan (2012-17) $ 1024 Billion Rs 40,99,240 Crores (9.5 % of GDP)
Infrastructure Investments Under Five Year Plans
Tenth Five Year Plan (2002-2007) $ 212 Billion Rs 9,19,225 Crores (5.7 % of GDP)Eleventh Five Year Plan (2007-12) $ 513 Billion Rs 20,54,205 Crores (7.5 % of GDP)Twelfth Five Year Plan (2012-17) $ 1024 Billion Rs 40,99,240 Crores (9.5 % of GDP)
Electricity Roads and Bridges
Railways Ports AirportsOthers (Telecom, Irrigation, Water Supply and Sanitation, Oil and Gas)
164.1
77.0 65.220.5 7.7
178.5
153.6130.0
41.015.4
0
100
Electricity Roads and Bridges Railways Ports Airports Others
Inv
est
me
nt
in $
Bil
lio
n
327.7
Example of “Value for Many” Business Model
“Value for Many” Will Replace
“Value for Money”
Tata Nano: The People’s Car At Low Price (Rs 1 Lakh
or €1,600)
Aravind Eye Hospital: Conducts 286,000 Assembly-
Line type Cataract Operations per year
EChoupal Initiative by ITC: Leveraging Internet to
Empower 4 Million Farmers
Grameen Bank: Microfinance Bank for the 8.34 Million
Borrowers in Bangladesh (97% Women)
Ford Business Model
Mega Trend Matrix: Understanding Implications of Key Mega Trends on Indian Economy
Deg
ree o
f Im
pact
on
In
dia
n E
co
no
my
Hig
h
Urbanization
Generation Y
Increase in Working Age
Population
“She-conomy”
The Middle Bulge
“Beyond
Future Economic Growth
Connectivity
Future Infrastructure
Generational Political Shift
Low Probability of Success
Deg
ree o
f Im
pact
on
In
dia
n E
co
no
my
Lo
w
High
Wealth Watchers
“Beyond Bangalore”
Space Jam
Innovating to Zero
E-Mobility
Top Industries of the Future
“Value for Many” Business Model
Health, Wellness and Well Being
Future Energy Power Generation Game On! Sports
Industry
E-Governance
“Click-n-Connect”
Note: The size of the bubble represents the scale of opportunity within each Mega TrendThe Mega Trends have been plotted based on quantitative and qualitative reasoning
From Macro to Micro: How to Take Mega Trends from Information to Strategy Implementation
Sub Trend
Mega TrendSelected Trends that Impact Your Business
and Markets
Analysis of Opportunities
and Unmet Needs
Impact on Future Product/
Macro Micro
Eg. Urbanization Example: Mega City electric cars with small turning radius, autonomous parking in busy cities, Facebook Sub Trend
A Sub Layer of Trends that Has Wide Ranging Impact
Future Product/ Technology
Impact to Your Industry
Visualising The Roadmap of These Critical Forces Through Scenario Building and Macro
Economic Forecasts
Eg. India to have 4 Mega Regions by 2025 Each with
Population Over 15 Million
• New Mobility Solutions• Hub and Spoke Business model for
different industries e.g.. Logistics• Specialized Hospitals in City Centers
and Walk –in Clinics in city suburbs
New Mega City Cars, Car sharing, Connected carSmart city solutions such as networked infrastructure, integrated transport systems
busy cities, Facebook on wheels, seamless switching from home to car
Mega Trends Research Plan 2011-2012:Selective List of Studies That Will be Accessible*
Number Mega Trend Planned TopicsEstimated
Publishing Date
1 Urbanization Urbanization and Mega Cities and Impact on Industries and Business Q1, 2012
2New Business
ModelsNew Business Models of the Future Q1, 2012
3 Mega TrendsWorlds Top Mega Trends to 2020 and Impact on Society, Cultures, Business, and Personal Lives – 2012 Update
2012
4 Healthcare Health, Wellness and Well-Being and Impact on Products and Technologies 2012
5 Energy Innovating to Zero 2012
6 Infrastructure Emerging Transportation Corridors of the Future 2012
7 Industry Industries of the Future 2012
* Titles cannot be confirmed and are subject to change or delays.
7 Industry Industries of the Future 2012
8 Regional Mega Trends for Africa Q1, 2012
9Regional
Mega Trends for India Q1, 2012
10Regional
Mega Trends for Asia Pacific Q1, 2012
11Regional
Mega Trends for LATAM Q1, 2012
12Regional
Mega Trends for Turkey Q2, 2012
13 Technology Top 50 Technologies of the Future: Techvision 2012
14 Urbanization Tracking of Mobility Trends and Transportation Policies in 23 Global Mega Cities 2012
15 Urbanization Global Analysis of Smart and Sustainable Cities 2012
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Sarwant SinghPartner & Practice Director,Visionary Innovation Research Group and Automotive & Transportation + 44 207 915 [email protected]
Archana AmarnathProgram ManagerVisionary Innovation Research Group + 44 207 915 [email protected]
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