meeting the challenges of energy demand karim barbir svp strategy, portfolio and risk management gdf...
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Meeting the Challenges of Energy Demand
Karim Barbir SVP Strategy, Portfolio and Risk Management
GDF SUEZ Energy North America
November 22, 2010
Who is GDF SUEZ ?Overview
• 2009 Revenues: €79.9 billion; EBITDA: €14.0 billion; over 200,000 worldwide employees
• Electricity: World’s largest IPP• Natural Gas: #1 buyer and transporter in Europe• LNG: #1 importer in Europe and U.S.
North American Business
• Integrated energy company; 2,000 employees• Electricity: ~8,000 MW in U.S., Canada & Mexico • 23 biomass, wind and hydro-powered assets in
US and Canada• Carbon light generation: 21% renewable; 67% gas• LNG: #1 importer in U.S., supply 20% of New
England’s annual gas demand• Retail: #2 U.S. electricity retailer servicing
commercial & industrial customers• Mexico: #1 private gas transmission; gas
distribution to nearly 400k customers2
Drive towards coal retirements
Drive for efficiency
Q: Timing? form?
Economic Recovery
Renewables
Regulatory Environment and
Sustainability
Primary Energy Sources
Signs of recovery; gas and power demand recovering
Q: Catalyst for growth?
Higher capital costs
Subsidies
Q: Will incentives continue?
What/when to invest for
clean, affordable and
reliable energy?
Shale gas advancement
Q: Price impact?
Fuel substitute?
3
Challenges/Opportunities for North American Energy
4
Economic Recovery Underway… And New Power Generation Will Be
Needed
* Solar, wood, biomass, geothermalSource: EIA
New build considerations
• Sustainability
• Infrastructure needs
• Supply diversity
• Price competitiveness
Coal
Natural gas
Hydro
Oil products
Nuclear
31%
39%
6%
10%
10%
4%
Today’s Generation Mix (capacity)
Tomorrow
US Example
Wind; other renew-ables*
New Generation Build – A Cost Perspective
Levelized Cost USD per MWh
5Source: GDF SUEZ Energy North America Analysis
Carbon Light Carbon FreeCarbon Intense
$0
$20
$40
$60
$80
$100
$120
$140
$160
$180
$200
Combined Cycle Gas - $4/MMBtu
Combined Cycle Gas - $6/MMBtu
Combustion Turbine Gas -$6/MMBtu
Coal - SC Nuclear Wind Solar (PV)
Capital Cost Property Tax & Insurance Fixed O&M Fuel & Variable With $12/Ton CO2
Renewables- Not Where We Consume Energy
6Source: NREL, Environment Canada
Vancouver
Toronto
MontrealUnited StatesWind Speed Map
CanadaWind Speed Map
United StatesSolar Intensity
• Significant incremental transmission will be needed over the next 15 years to integrate renewable development into U.S. generation fleet,
• $50 billion to satisfy existing state-level RPS standards
• As much as $130 billion to meet a 20% national renewable portfolio standard
• Texas PUC, as an example, approved nearly $5 billion for 18,456 MW of transmission investment to support renewable investments
7
Shale Gas - N. America’s Answer to a Domestic, Low Cost Primary Energy
Source?
Supply: may be as much as 100 years of U.S. consumption by some estimates
New uses: gas-fired power generation to displace coal; petrochemicals return? residential and transportation switching?
Technology adoption: to Europe? Asia? Source: EIA 2010
In a World of Cheap Gas, There is an Expanded Role for Natural Gas Fired
Generation
8
A fuel source for the ‘Utility of the
Future’
Carbon Light!Acceptable generation tradeoffs
Competitive Advantages
kg CO2 per MWh
Coal 1.0Natural Gas 0.4
• Flexible generation backup for wind and solar
• Electric vehicles
• Rapid deployment vs. nuclear
• Attractive opex/ capex profile vs. wind and nuclear
• High efficiency, off-the-shelf technology
GDF Suez Energy North America- Meeting the Challenges Now
A diversified, sustainable portfolio profitable under a variety of economic scenarios
9
Longer-term Options
Expand renewables footprint where
economically sensible; improve carbon position
of fleet
Maintain carbon-light fleet anchored by natural gas-fired generation
• Nuclear as a long-term option- clean, base load generation
• Concentrated solar, rooftop solar
• Renewables with PPAs
• Canada, US, Mexico
• CCGT
• Hydro and pumped storage
• Renewables firm support