meeting future wto commitments on domestic support
TRANSCRIPT
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8/8/2019 Meeting Future WTO Commitments on Domestic Support
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Meeting Future WTO Commitments
on Domestic Support
David Blandford,
The Pennsylvania State University
Tim Josling,
Stanford University
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2007 The German Marshall Fund o the United States. All rights reserved.
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P 3
Ax 1
R 11
Meeting Future WTO Commitments on Domestic Support
The Implications of Ambassador Falconers July 2007 Proposals
for the European Union and the United States
A Report to the German Marshall Fund of the United States
September 2007
Dv B
D A E R Sy
T Pyv S Uvy
T J
F S I I S
S Uvy
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Meeting Future WO Commitments on Domestic Support:
he Implications o Ambassador Falconers July 2007 Proposals
or the European Union and the United States
3
j k
w
D Dv R
W Oz (WO) O J
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Existing WTO constraints
x WO v
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vv
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S (AMS)
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5 v
x
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he German Marshall Fund o the United States4
US F B w -z, w
EU/US k j v
Business as usual
WO
v U R
AMS 5
de minimis - -
- AMS w
w x B Bx Hwv,
,
WO
I , w
U S
E U w
G Bx, v
US (5) WO
Billion
Euros
Billion
$
Year
Year
Figure 1U.S. AMS and WTO commitment 19952006
EU AMS and WTO commitment 19952006
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
AMS Limit
Current Total AMS
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
0
5
10
15
20
25
AMS Limit
Current Total AMS
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Meeting Future WO Commitments on Domestic Support:
he Implications o Ambassador Falconers July 2007 Proposals
or the European Union and the United States
5
q E U
B Bx W
EU 3 M-
vw q
v Hwv, w
8 H k S
v v
F US , w
US H Rv v
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EU
AMS B Bx
Table 1. Main provisions of the Falconer proposals for EU/U.S. domestic support
European Union United States
Overall Trade-Distorting Domestic Support (OTDS)
B v F AMS () + 1% VOP+ B/5% VOP
R 5/85% 66/3%
Total Aggregate Measure of Support (AMS)
B v F v (U R A)
R % 6%
Product-Specific AMS
B ( x) 1995 19954 1995 AMS
De minimis
R 5/6% 5/6%
Blue Box
C (% VOP) 5% 5%
P D P x 1995 v
C x 11/1
Cotton Provisions
AMS C AMS v w
R 843% R 8%
C B Bx v C B Bx
Value of production (VOP)
B 1995
S: WO ()
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he German Marshall Fund o the United States6
Cumsan hendio
con vullaorem
zzrilit laorting
el do exer si tin
ulputem iure
velendrer sequat.
Ummy nissis eum
dolummy nullaor
amconsecte
exercilisl ut
vullandio odo
U S
-
-- AMS B
E U U S w v
w AMS
( w F ) w
w v
WO v
G Bx
I D R F
Falconers Draft Modalities
F j
w w WO
v
913, w
13 O
v E
Billion
$
Billion
Euros
Year
Year
Figure 2
U.S. projected notifications and current WTO limits 20062013
EU projected notifications and current WTO limits 20062013
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
Green Box
Total AMS
AMS Limit
Blue Box
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
Green Box
Total AMS
AMS Limit
Blue Box
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Meeting Future WO Commitments on Domestic Support:
he Implications o Ambassador Falconers July 2007 Proposals
or the European Union and the United States
7
Iriuscidunt verci
tinciduisi. Lis ad
elessi. Um alis
dolor si. Ing eum
dolorem nullaor
tionseq uipsum
ipsusto dolore
feum quiscil iscil
er si et vent amc
ad dio eum vel
U U S , US -
w
B Bx,
AMS, w F
F A
ODS de
minimis w, w 1
U ODS AMS E U
U S v
( F 3) D ,
E
U ODS w
5 ODS 13
F U S, ODS
q
ODS 13, $13 US
Billion
$
Billio
n
Euros
Year
Year
Figure 3
U.S. projected notifications and WTO limitsFalconer A
EU projected notifications and WTO limitsFalconer A
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
Green Box
Total AMS
AMS limit
Blue Box
Blue Box limit
OTDS
OTDS limit
F FF F F F F F
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Green Box
Total AMS
AMS limit
Blue Box
Blue Box limit
OTDS
OTDS limit
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he German Marshall Fund o the United States8
Cumsan hendio
con vullaorem
zzrilit laorting
el do exer si tin
ulputem iure
velendrer sequat.
Ummy nissis eum
dolummy nullaor
amconsecte
exercilisl ut
vullandio odo
AMS j x $6 $15 13
B Bx
E U
,
B
F 3 EU x B Bx w
F L vv
ODS,
de minimis
z 1
Billion
$
Billion
Euros
Year
Year
Figure 4
U.S. OTDS and alternative OTDS limits
EU OTDS and alternative OTDS limits
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
U.S. OTDS Limit A
U.S. Current OTDS
U.S. OTDS Limit L
U.S. OTDS Limit A
U.S. Current OTDS
U.S. OTDS Limit L
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Meeting Future WO Commitments on Domestic Support:
he Implications o Ambassador Falconers July 2007 Proposals
or the European Union and the United States
9
Iriuscidunt verci
tinciduisi. Lis ad
elessi. Um alis
dolor si. Ing eum
dolorem nullaor
tionseq uipsum
ipsusto dolore
feum quiscil iscil
er si et vent amc
ad dio eum vel
A x, ODS k
ODS v
(F 4) U
U S v ODS
v (13)
WO
D R, w US
Gv
v U S
j k ,
U S v
, w x
w
v v
( )
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w
I U S w x
AMS 13 $1 (
$15 w
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- F
- AMS
1995 v I U S,
w k x -
$163 v
B ,
(w ) AMS
( v 8 ) ,
v,
U S w v
E U
w -
1I w w x 95 w w w v S v 4
I v v AMS G Bx S
G Bx ,
- AMS w
q EU
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k v F U
S, w -
v
B k
w E U :
x ( ) v 1995
O , w
- (SFP)
w G Bx (w w q
x w
G Bx )
- EU
B Bx w F 5 w G
Bx v , B Bx
AMS v w
E U Hwv, v
j E U
G Bx
,
- w
The Bottom Line
A F J
1, E
U U S w j
A vw w
w v
O f w v T G Bx , I w v w
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he German Marshall Fund o the United States10
Cumsan hendio
con vullaorem
zzrilit laorting
el do exer si tin
ulputem iure
velendrer sequat.
Ummy nissis eum
dolummy nullaor
amconsecte
exercilisl ut
vullandio odo
D R
B WO
v v w
- S, vw w w
w x
E U U S
-
F w w
w
Ev F
w
EU US 13
z w
w k w
Annex:
Method for Projecting the Notifications
O ( k) EU
US WO
(1995/963/4 EU 19951
US) ( F 6) W
(
v ) w
k k
(
v ) w j
v w ,
k
F w
k j E U
U S w
Billion
euros
Year
Figure 5
EU notification of direct payments
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70Green Box without SFP
Blue Box including SFP
AMS with no decoupling
Green Box with SFP
Blue Box without SFP
AMS with decoupling
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Meeting Future WO Commitments on Domestic Support:
he Implications o Ambassador Falconers July 2007 Proposals
or the European Union and the United States
11
Iriuscidunt verci
tinciduisi. Lis ad
elessi. Um alis
dolor si. Ing eum
dolorem nullaor
tionseq uipsum
ipsusto dolore
feum quiscil iscil
er si et vent amc
ad dio eum vel
j E C
US D A (USDA) (CEC,; USDA, ) W
O E C-
Dv () w
, , E
U
w , ,
w k
x I
j
( w ) A, w
k- w k
EU
US v w k
O
w k
EU/US k
j
WO
References:
C E C,
Prospects for Agricultural Markets and Income in the
European Union, 20062013, B,
O E C-
Dv,Agricultural Outlook Database,
J 8, ://www
US D A,Agricultural
Baseline Projections to 2016, W DC,
W Oz Draft Modalities for
Agriculture WO C A, 1
J , Gv
WTO obligations
De minimus limit
Notifications
Policy decisions
Pressure points
Sector conditions
External factors
Figure 6
Schematic representation of EU/U.S. domestic support simulators
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