meeting future workforce needs - montana legislature · 2019. 9. 19. · total annual job openings...

Meeting Future Workforce Needs

Agenda

1. Labor force projections

2. Post-secondary supply and demand report

About MTDLI Projections

• Annual updates of 2-year & 10-year• State and regions

• Industry & occupation• Job growth and replacements• National methodology

• Funded by U.S. Department of Labor (U.S. DOL)

• Used by educational institutions, students, private forecasts

• Educational requirements set by U.S. DOL

• Full methodology available at lmi.mt.gov/publications

Industry Projections

Source: Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages for 2008-2018 historic, MTDLI forecasts for 2019-2028.

-1.0%

-0.5%

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

-2.0% -1.5% -1.0% -0.5% 0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5%

Nex

t 10

Year

s

Last 10 Years

Forecasted and Historic Employment Growth by Industry

Construction

Professional services

HealthcareLeisure Activities

Trade

Financialactivities

Administrative services

Mining & Utilities

Manufacturing

Regional Employment Growth

Source: MTDLI forecasts for 2018-2028.

Occupational Projections – New Jobs

Food Preparation and Serving Related, 514

Healthcare Practitioners and

Technical, 470

Construction and Extraction, 429

Building and Grounds Cleaning and

Maintenance, 261Personal Care and Service, 255Office and Administrative

Support, 213

Healthcare Support, 201

Business and Financial Operations, 198

Transportation and Material Moving, 194

Sales and Related, 189

Installation, Maintenance, and Repair, 160

Computer and Mathematical, 133

Education, Training, and Library, 129

Community and Social Service, 108

Engineering & Sciences, 153

All other, 286New Jobs

Annually by Occupational

Group


Total Annual Job Openings by Type

New Jobs, 3,892

Exits, 25,416

Transfers, 33,049

Churn is much larger than new job growth. Only 6% of worker needs comes from job growth.

Exits: people leaving the occupation, including retirements. 20% of Montana workforce expected to retire in next 10 years.

Transfers: people moving between similar jobs, thus leaving a job opening


Occupational Openings and Wages

Occupations with the Most Openings Next 10 Years (2018 to 2028)

Title Education and Training

Requirements

Annual Growth

Openings

Total Annual Openings

2018 Average Wage

1 Cashiers Short-term OJT 22 3,393 $22,930

2 Retail Salespersons Short-term OJT 59 2,612 $28,500

3 Food Preparation & Serving (Fast Food) Short-term OJT 190 2,300 $22,380

4 Waiters and Waitresses Short-term OJT 90 2,093 $20,990

5 Office Clerks, General High School, Short-term OJT 3 1,648 $33,350


• Big occupations in terms of employment• Low wages means more openings from turnover.

Montana Jobs by Minimum Education Level(Using BLS Minimum Education Data)

Source: MTDLI 2018-2028 Employment projections. Degree for each job represents the typical degree held by individuals entering the career, which is determined by US DOL.

Less than High School

27%

High School Diploma or Equivalent

39%

Some College to Associate

12%

Bachelor's Degree

18%

Higher than Bachelor's

4%

PROJECTED JOB OPENINGS BY MINIMUM EDUCATION NEEDED

of projected job openings require some college education.

10-Years from Now:

Post-secondary share grows by

1%

Education Needs Based on O*Net

13.3%

13.3%

36.7%

36.4%

9.6%

9.7%

6.8%

6.8%

8.2%

8.2%

16.1%

16.1%

9.3%

9.6%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

2018

2028

Less than HS HS Dip and Equiv PS certificate Some College Associate Bachelor's Higher than Bachelors

Montana Jobs Using the Typical Education of Workers(Rather than Minimum)

Source: MTDLI analysis based on MTDLI projections and O*Net education data.

Comparison of Methods

Less Than High School, 28% Less Than High School,

13%

HS diploma (or equivelency), 39%

HS diploma (or equivelency), 36%

Some College/ Associates, 12%

Some College/ Associates, 25%

Bachelor's Degree, 18% Bachelor's Degree,

16%

Higher than Bachelor's Degree Higher than Bachelor's Degree, 10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Minimum Education Typical Education

4%

Source: MTDLI analysis based on MTDLI projections and O*Net education data.

50% of jobs need post-secondary education

1/3 of jobs need post-secondary education

Education Needs based on Georgetown Methodology (2018 data)

• Assume requirements change over time

• Attempt to account for automation

• Website had projections to 2018

HS diploma

(or equivelency), 31.7%

Some College/

Associates, 33.5%

Bachelor's Degree, 20.9%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Higher than Bachelor’s, 7.4%

Less than High School, 6.5%

62% of Jobs Need Post-secondary

Source: Georgetown Center on Education and the Workforce, “Help Wanted: Projections of Jobs and Education Requirements Through 2018. Available at cew.gerogetown.edu/states/montana.

Take-aways

• Methodology matters

• Montana jobs are moving towards higher education levels, but slowly

• For the most part, current needs mimic needs in 10 years

• Encourage job-appropriate and continuous training• College degrees are still needed, as are certifications, associate

degrees, and apprenticeships• Make lifelong learning easier

Over-education is good for the economy(Positive externalities from education)

Higher education levels lead to higher:• Productivity and technology

adoption

• Innovation• Entrepreneurialism• Income

• Labor force participation• Voter turnout & citizenship• Volunteerism & public service

• Homeownership

$- $20,000 $40,000 $60,000 $80,000

Median Earnings by Education Level

MT US

Graduate or Professional

Bachelor’s

Some College/ Associate’s

HS grad or equivalent

< High School

0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0%

Less than HS

HS diploma (or equiv)

Some college/associate's

Bachelor's and higher

2017 Unemployment Rates by Education Level

MT

US

High-Paying Jobs at High School Level Typically Require Apprenticeships

• High school diploma or less, some job training required, Over $40k• Adding roughly 400 jobs per year• Total openings of 6,000 per year

Rank Title Education & Training Required Total Annual Openings

2018 Average Wage

1 Carpenters HS Diploma & Apprenticeship 680 $42,480

2 Operating Engineers and Other Operators HS Diploma & Moderate OJT 440 $51,580

3Sales Representatives, Wholesale and Manufacturing

HS Diploma & Moderate OJT 430 $57,500

4 Electricians HS Diploma & Apprenticeship 320 $59,000

5 Plumbers HS Diploma & Apprenticeship 280 $60,940

OJT = On the Job training Source: MTDLI Employment projections

High-Paying Jobs at Between HS diploma and Bachelor’s

• Associate, Post-secondary award, or Some College, >= $40k• Adding roughly 255 jobs per year• Total openings of 2,370 per year

Rank Title Education & Training Required

Total Annual Openings

2018 Average Wage

1 Truck Drivers PS Award & Short OJT 740 $46,100

2 Computer User Support Specialists Some College 225 $46,060

3 LPNs PS Award 210 $43,770

4 Heating & Air Conditioning Mechanics and Installers PS Award & Long OJT 130 $48,740

5 Paralegals & Legal Assistants Associate’s 120 $44,330

PS Award means Post-secondary non-degree award OJT = On the Job training Source: MTDLI Employment projections

High-Paying Jobs at Bachelor’s & Higher

• Bachelor’s Degree, >= $40k• Adding roughly 2,600 jobs per year• Total openings of 7,850 per year

Rank Title Education & Training Required Total Annual Openings

2018 Average Wage

1 Registered Nurses Bachelor's degree 750 $67,450

2 General and Operations Managers Bachelor's degree & 5 Years Experience 457.7 $98,990

3 Business Operations Specialists Bachelor's degree 386.6 $66,290

4 Accountants and Auditors Bachelor's degree 383.7 $66,410

5 Elementary School Teachers Bachelor's degree 296.1 $52,360

PS Award means Post-secondary non-degree award OJT = On the Job training Source: MTDLI Employment projections

Agenda

1. Labor force projections show DEMAND

2. Post-secondary supply and demand report

Graduates from 2001-02 to 2014-15

~ 100,000 graduates

~ 113,000 degrees

18 Montana colleges

Data on Graduates

Statewide Research Questions

1. How do graduates fare in the labor market?

2. Do colleges produce enough graduates in the right fields?

3. Are there regional gaps in supply and demand?

Graduates work in every county in the state.

In-migration for college ≈ out-migration after college

of graduates work in Montana sometime in the five years after graduation

Graduates per year on average

Higher Education System Contribution

Source: MTDLI Statewide College Report.

Graduates Earn Above Median Wages within Three Years of Graduation

$-

$5,000

$10,000

$15,000

$20,000

$25,000

$30,000

$35,000

$40,000

$45,000

$50,000

1 2 3 4 5

Real

201

5 Av

erag

e W

ages

Years after Graduation

Montana Median Wage

All GraduatesEmployed Year-Round

Montana Entry-Level Wage

Source: MTDLI, OCHE, RMC, and CC graduate data wage match. Real wages reported in 2015 dollars using the CPI-U.

$35,200

$46,720

$38,620

$23,970

Workforce Outcomes by Degree

Source: DOR, OCHE MUS, RMC, and CC income data match summarized by MT DLI. Income is defined as lines 7, 12, 17, and 18 on the MT income tax return.

Certificate of Technical Studies

(<1 year)

Certificate of Applied Scenice (>1

year)

Associate Degree

Bachelor Degree

First Professional Degree

Masters Degree

Doctoral Degree

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Med

ian

Inco

me

One

-Yea

r Aft

er G

radu

atio

n

Percent Filing One-Year After (Resident and Non-Resident)

Workforce Outcomes by Program

Source: DOR, OCHE, RMC, and CC income data match summarized by MTDLI. Earned income is defined as lines 7, 12, 17, and 18 on the Montana income tax return, not including farm income.

Liberal Arts

Business

Health Professions

EducationSocial Science

Engineering

Physical Science

Agriculture and Conservation Construction,

Mechanic and Transportation

Culinary Arts and Recreation

CommunicationComputer Science

Human ServicesArchitecture

Legal Professions

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

50% 60% 70% 80% 90%

Med

ian

Real

Inco

me

One

Yea

r Aft

er G

radu

atio

n

Percent Filing (Resident and Non-Resident)

Wage Premium for Bachelor’s DegreeDifference in wage earnings for associate vs. Bachelor’s

Source: MTDLI, OCHE MUS, RMC, and CC graduate data wage match. Allied health excludes surgical technology and respiratory care. *= Certificate of Applied Science graduates.

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($20,000)

($10,000)

$0

$10,000

$20,000

$30,000

$40,000

Wag

e Pr

emiu

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ive

Year

s aft

er G

radu

atio

n Associate’s Earns Same or More

Bachelor’s Earns More

$36,370

$1,460

Wages versus Tuition CostsBreakeven period by degree

• Graduates from all degrees earn wages equal to their tuition costs in less than two years.

• Two-year colleges can provide tuition savings for students pursuing a bachelor’s degree.

Source: MUS warehouse, OCHE. Costs based on average in-state tuition per credit at two-year and four-year colleges in MT, and average credits to degree. RMC and CC data not included. Student loan information not included. NA=not available.

Expansion Candidates

Largest Oversupply

Supply and Demand by ProgramSelect Programs

Source: MTDLI 2015-2025 occupational employment projections. OCHE, RMC, and CC graduate data. Demand is sum of all occupations a graduate from the program could fill. Supply is average over last three academic years.

0 200 400 600 800 1000

General Studies

Business

Registered Nursing

Accounting

Practical Nursing

Computer/Info Science, Other

Social Work

Computer Science

HIT and Medical Coding

Information Technology

Automotive Technology

Mechanic Repair Tech

Number of Graduates

Under Supplied

Meets Demand

Over Supplied

Demand Range

Workforce Outcomes by Program

Source: DOR, OCHE, RMC, and CC income data match summarized by MTDLI. Earned income is defined as lines 7, 12, 17, and 18 on the Montana income tax return, not including farm income.

Liberal Arts

Business

Health Professions

EducationSocial Science

Engineering

Physical Science

Agriculture and Conservation Construction,

Mechanic and Transportation

Culinary Arts and Recreation

CommunicationComputer Science

Human ServicesArchitecture

Legal Professions

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

50% 60% 70% 80% 90%

Med

ian

Real

Inco

me

One

Yea

r Aft

er G

radu

atio

n

Percent Filing (Resident and Non-Resident)

Migration Helps Fill Gaps

Source: MTDLI, OCHE MUS, RMC, and CC graduate data wage match. Excludes years prior to 2010 due to lack of region 5 data. Arrows show net migration between regions.

Program Supply and Demandby Region

Source: MTDLI 2015-2025 occupational employment projections and OCHE, RMC, and CC graduate data.

Program Category Program NW SW NC SC E

Computer/ Info Science

Computer/Info Science, OtherInformation TechnologyComputer Science

Liberal Arts General StudiesHuman Services Social Work

Construction, Mechanic & Transportation

Mechanic Repair TechAutomotive Technology

Health Professions

HIT and Medical Coding

Registered NursingPractical Nursing

BusinessBusinessAccounting

More Information at lmi.mt.gov

Barbara WagnerChief EconomistMT Dept. of Labor and [email protected] | 406-444-5474

meeting future workforce needs - montana legislature · 2019. 9. 19. · total annual job openings...

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