medicaid moving forward: opportunities and challengesmedicaid moving forward: opportunities and...
TRANSCRIPT
Medicaid Moving Forward: Opportunities and Challenges
Diane Rowland, Sc.D.
Executive Vice President, Henry J. Kaiser Family Foundation
Executive Director, Kaiser Commission on Medicaid and the Uninsured
National Medicaid Congress
Arlington, VA
May 31, 2013
Figure 1
Medicaid Today
Health Insurance Coverage
31 million children & 16 million
adults in low‐income families; 16
million elderly and persons with
disabilities
State Capacity for Health CoverageFor FY 2013, FMAPs range
from 50 –
73.4%
MEDICAID
Support for Health Care System
and Safety Net
16% of national health spending; 40% of long‐term care spending
Assistance to Medicare
Beneficiaries
9.4 million aged and disabled
— 20% of Medicare
beneficiaries
Long‐Term Care Assistance
1.6 million institution‐based
beneficiaries; 2.8 million
community‐based beneficiaries
NOTE: FMAP is Federal Medical Assistance Percentage
Figure 2
NOTE: FPL‐‐
Federal Poverty Level. The FPL was $22,350 for a family of four in 2011. SOURCE: Kaiser Commission on Medicaid and the Uninsured (KCMU) and Urban Institute analysis of 2012 ASEC
Supplement to the CPS; Birth data from Maternal and Child Health
Update: States Increase Eligibility for Children's
Health in 2007, National Governors Association, 2008; Medicare data from MCBS Cost and Use file, 2009; Functional
Limitations from KCMU Analysis of 2011 NHIS data.
Medicaid plays a critical role for selected populations.
Families
Elderly and People with Disabilities
Figure 3
NOTES: In past 12 months. Respondents who said usual source of care was the emergency room were
included among those not having a usual source of care. All differences between the uninsured and the
two insurance groups are statistically significant (p<0.05).SOURCE: KCMU analysis of 2011 NHIS data.
Medicaid provides access to care that is comparable to private insurance and better than access for the uninsured.
Children Nonelderly Adults
Figure 4
NOTE: Acute Care includes payments to managed care plans. SOURCE: Medicaid estimates from Urban Institute analysis of data
from the Medicaid Statistical
Information System (MSIS), Medicaid Financial Management Reports
(CMS Form 64), and Kaiser
Commission on Medicaid and the Uninsured and Health Management Associates data. NHE and private
health insurance data from Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services Office of the Actuary, National
Health Statistics Group.
Medicaid spending growth per enrollee has been slower than growth in private health spending.
Figure 5
NOTE: * Projections based on CMS 2010 Actuarial Report. SOURCE: KCMU analysis of data from the Health Care Financing Administration and Centers for Medicare
and Medicaid Services, 2011.
Medicaid Eligibility Milestones, 1965‐2011
Millions of Medicaid Beneficiaries
Medicaid Eligibility Expanded to
Women and Children (1984‐1990)
AFDC Repealed(1996)
(67.3 Million
Beneficiaries*)
ACAEnacted(2010)
Great Recession and
State Fiscal Crisis
(2007)
Recession and State
Fiscal Crisis(2000)
CHIPRAEnacted(2004)
Medicaid
Enacted
(1965)
SSIEnacted
(1972)
Section 1115 Waivers Expand
Medicaid Eligibility (1991‐1993)
SCHIPEnacted
(1997)
Figure 6
SOURCE: Based on the results of a national survey conducted by the Kaiser Commission on Medicaid
and the Uninsured and the Georgetown University Center for Children and Families, 2013 and MACPAC
Report to the Congress on Medicaid and CHIP, Table 11, March 2013.
Medicaid eligibility levels are still limited for certain populations.
Minimum Medicaid Eligibility under Health Reform ‐
138% FPL ($26,951 for a family of 3 in 2013)
Figure 7
NOTE: FPL‐‐
Federal Poverty Level. The FPL was $22,350 for a family of four in 2011. Data may not total 100% due to rounding. SOURCE: KCMU/Urban Institute analysis of 2012 ASEC Supplement to
the CPS
Coverage gaps in Medicaid and employer‐sponsored insurance leave many uninsured.
Figure 8
Medicaid Tomorrow
New and Expanded Options HCBS for Long‐Term Care
/ Coordination for Duals
Delivery System Reforms
Health Insurance Coverage for Certain Individuals
Shared FinancingStates and Federal Govt.
Assistance forDuals / Long‐Term Care
Support forHealth Care System
Minimum Floor forHealth Insurance Coverage
Up to 138% FPL
AdditionalFederal Financingfor Coverage
NOTE: HCBS refers to home and community‐based services.
Figure 9
The ACA expands coverage by building on Medicaid and creating new Marketplaces with premium subsidies.
*Medicaid also includes other public programs: CHIP, other state
programs, Medicare andmilitary‐related coverage. The federal poverty level for a family of three in 2011 was $18,530.
Percentages may not total 100% due to rounding. SOURCE: KCMU/Urban Institute analysis of 2012 ASEC Supplement to
the CPS.
Income
≤138% FPL Medicaid (51%)
139‐399% FPL Subsidies (39%)
≥400% FPL (10%)
47.9 Million Uninsured266.4 Million Nonelderly
Health Insurance Coverage of the Nonelderly, 2011
Employer‐Sponsored Coverage
Uninsured
Medicaid*
Private Non‐Group
Figure 10
NOTE: The June 2012 Supreme Court decision in National Federation of Independent Business v. Sebelius
maintained the Medicaid expansion, but limited the Secretary's authority to enforce it, effectively making
the expansion optional for states. 138% FPL = $15,856 for an individual and $26,951 for a family of three
in 2013.
The ACA Medicaid expansion fills current gaps in coverage.
Adults
Elderly & Persons with
Disabilities
Parents
PregnantWomen
Children
Extends to Adults ≤138% FPL*
Medicaid Eligibility Today Medicaid Eligibility in 2014Limited to Specific Low‐Income Groups Extends to Adults ≤138% FPL
Figure 11
The ACA streamlines enrollment processes to make it easier to obtain coverage, regardless of whether states expand.
Dear ______,You are eligible for…Data
Hub
$
#
Multiple Ways
to Enroll
Use of Electronic Data to Verify Eligibility
Single Applicationfor Multiple Programs
Real‐Time Eligibility
Determinations
MedicaidCHIP
Marketplace
HEALTH INSURANCE
Figure 12
NOTE: Projections assume all states expand Medicaid.SOURCE: Urban Institute estimates prepared for KCMU, November 2012.
The federal government will fund the vast majority of Medicaid expansion costs.
Federal State
Provider Revenue
Increased Economic Activity
↑
26% ↑
3%
ImpactCost(2013‐2022)
21.3 Million New Enrollees by 2022
State Savings
$952 Billion$76
Billion
Figure 13
SOURCE: Based on a KCMU review of State of the State addresses, FY 2014 budgets proposals,
and other public statements made by governors.
But much is at stake in states’
decisions.
Opposes Expansion (20 states)
Supports Expansion (29 states, including DC)
Weighing Options (2 states)
WA
OR
WY
UT
TX
SD
OK
ND
NM
NVNE
MT
LA
KS
ID
HI
COCA
ARAZ
AK
WI
WV VA
TNSC
OH
NCMO
MS
MN
MI
KY
IA
INIL
GA
FL
AL
VT
PA
NY
NJ
NH
MA
ME
DC
CT
DE
RI
MD
Executive Activity on the Medicaid Expansion Decision, May 9, 2013
Figure 14
NOTE: Eleven states (CT, HI, IL, MA, ME, MN, NJ, NY, RI, VT, WI) and DC already offer coverage to parents
at or above 133% FPL; under the ACA an income disregard of 5 percentage points will be applied to this
limit increasing the effective income limit to 138% FPL .SOURCE: Based on the results of a national survey conducted by the Kaiser Commission on Medicaid and
the Uninsured and the Georgetown University Center for Children and Families, 2013.
The Medicaid expansion will significantly increase eligibility for parents in many states.
Figure 15
NOTE: Map identifies the broadest scope of coverage in the state. SOURCE: Based on the results of a national survey conducted by the Kaiser Commission on Medicaid and
the Uninsured and the Georgetown University Center for Children and Families, 2013.
Coverage gains for childless adults under the Medicaid expansion would be even larger.
Medicaid Comparable Coverage (9 States, including DC)
No or Limited Coverage (42 States)
“Closed”
denotes enrollment closed to new applicants
WA(closed)
OR(closed)
WY
UT
TX
SD
OK
ND
NM(closed)
NVNE
MT
LA
KS
ID
HI
CO(closed)CA
ARAZ(closed)
AK
WI(closed)
WV VA
TNSC
OH
NCMO
MS
MN
MI(closed)
KY
IA
INIL
GA
FL
AL
VT
PA
NY
NJ
NH
MA
ME(closed)
DC
CT
DE
RI
MD
Figure 16
Many uninsured individuals are below the Medicaid expansion limit and not eligible for Marketplace subsidies.
WY
WI
WV
WA
VA
VT
UT
TX
TN
SD
SC
RIPA
OR
OK
OH
ND
NC
NY
NM
NJ
NH
NVNE
MT
MO
MS
MN
MI
MA
MD
ME
LA
KYKS
IA
INIL
ID
HI
GA
FL
DC
DE
CT
COCA
ARAZ
AK
AL
30% ‐
35% (15 states)14% ‐
29% (17 states, including DC)
36% ‐
44% (19 states)United States:
35% Uninsured <100% FPL
SOURCE: Urban Institute and Kaiser Commission on Medicaid and the Uninsured estimates based on the
Census Bureau's March 2010 and 2011 Current Population Survey (CPS: Annual Social and Economic
Supplements).
Share of the Nonelderly Uninsured < 100% FPL by State, 2010‐2011
Figure 17
Moving Forward with Delivery System Reforms
• The U.S. faces shortfalls in access to care, especially primary care.• Access has been deteriorating for insured, as well as uninsured• National primary care physician shortage
• Medicaid beneficiaries experience access gaps due to provider
payment issues and other barriers.
• The majority of Medicaid spending is for high need/high cost
populations.
• States are experimenting with ways to incentivize high‐quality care
through coordinated, patient‐centered delivery systems and
innovative payment models.
Figure 18
Note: MCO is managed care organization, PCCM is Primary Care Case Management, and FFS is fee‐for‐service. Data as of July 1, 2011.SOURCE: CMS 2011 Medicaid Managed Care Enrollment Report
Nearly 2/3 of Medicaid beneficiaries are enrolled in comprehensive managed care.
Total = 57.1 million Medicaid beneficiaries
Figure 19
States are continuing to implement comprehensive Medicaid managed care arrangements.
WY
WI
WV
WA
VA
VT
UT
TX
TN
SD
SC
RIPA
OR
OK
OH
ND
NC
NY
NM
NJ
NH
NVNE
MT
MO
MS
MN
MI
MA
MD
ME
LA
KYKS
IA
INIL
ID
HI
GA
FL
DC
DE
CT
COCA
ARAZ
AK
AL
0% ‐
50% (10 states)
66% ‐
80% (21 states including DC)81%+ (4 states)
51% ‐
65% (16 states)
Comprehensive Medicaid Managed Care Penetration by State, July 2011
NOTE:
Includes enrollment in MCO, PCCM, HIO, and PACE. Data as of July 1, 2011.SOURCE: CMS 2011 Medicaid Managed Care Enrollment Report
U.S. Overall = 67%
Figure 20
Additional Focus on Delivery and Payment in the ACA
•
Increased Medicare and Medicaid payments for primary care
•
Investment in community health centers
•
Health care workforce development
•
Emphasis on prevention
•
Promoting coordinated care for beneficiaries with complex needs
–
Health homes for Medicaid beneficiaries with chronic conditions
•
New options for home and community‐based long‐term services
and supports
Figure 21
NOTE: TN has no Medicaid FFS program.SOURCE: 2012 KCMU/Urban Institute Medicaid Physician Fee Survey.
Medicaid PCP fees increase two‐fold or more in six states that account for over 1/3 of Medicaid beneficiaries.
WY
WI
WV
WA
VA
VT
UT
TX
TN
SD
SC
RIPA
OR
OK
OH
ND
NC
NY
NM
NJ
NH
NVNE
MT
MO
MS
MN
MI
MA
MD
ME
LA
KYKS
IA
INIL
ID
HI
GA
FL
DC
DE
CT
COCA
ARAZ
AK
AL
U.S. Overall = 73%1% ‐
24% (9 states)0% (2 states)
50% ‐
99% (12 states)25% ‐
49% (21 states including DC)
100% ‐
200% (6 states)
Average fee increase for ACA services
Figure 22
NOTE: Several states are in more than one status category: 1 SPA approved and planning grant awarded
(AL, ID, ME, NC, and WI). 2 SPA approved and a separate SPA officially submitted to CMS (IA). 3 SPA
approved and separate SPA under CMS review (RI). 4
SPA under CMS review and planning grant awarded
(WV).
SOURCE: Integrated Care Resource Center State Integration Activities: Health Homes, available at:
http://www.medicaid.gov/State‐Resource‐Center/Medicaid‐State‐Technical‐Assistance/Health‐Homes‐
Technical‐Assistance/Downloads/HH‐Map_v21.pdf.
Health Home State Plan Amendments (SPAs) or Planning Grants, April 2013
WY
WI
WV
WA
VA
VT
UT
TX
TN
SD
SC
RIPA
OR
OK
OH
ND
NC
NY
NM
NJ
NH
NVNE
MT
MO
MS
MN
MI
MA
MD
ME
LA
KYKS
IA
INIL
ID
HI
GA
FL
DC
DE
CT
COCA
ARAZ
AK
ALDraft SPA under review (8 states)
SPA approved (11 states)
SPA officially submitted (2 states) Planning Grant Awarded (15 states and DC)Not Participating (22 states)
Figure 23
NOTE: Percentages may not add up to 100 due to rounding.SOURCE:
KCMU/Urban Institute estimates based on data from FFY 2009 MSIS
and CMS‐64, 2012. MSIS
FFY 2008 data were used for PA, UT, and WI, but adjusted to 2009
CMS‐64.
The elderly and people with disabilities are high‐need and high‐cost populations.
Figure 24
SOURCE: Kaiser Commission on Medicaid and the Uninsured and Urban Institute estimates based on FFY
2009 MSIS and CMS‐64 data. MSIS FFY 2008 data was used for PA, UT, and WI, but adjusted to 2009
CMS‐64.
Long‐term care is a major share of Medicaid spending for the elderly and people with disabilities.
Figure 25
SOURCE: M. O’Malley Watts, M. Musumeci, and E. Reaves, How is the Affordable Care Act Leading to
Changes in Medicaid Long‐Term Services and Supports (LTSS) Today? State Adoption of Six LTSS Options,
The Henry J. Kaiser Family Foundation, April 2013, available at:
http://www.kff.org/medicaid/issue‐
brief/how‐is‐the‐affordable‐care‐act‐leading‐to‐changes‐in‐medicaid‐long‐term‐services‐and‐supports‐
ltss‐today‐state‐adoption‐of‐six‐ltss‐options/.
States’
Participation in Six Key Medicaid Long‐Term Services and Supports (LTSS) Options Provided or Enhanced by the ACA
NOTE: Number of states that are participating, used to participate, or have plans to participate in FY 2013 or FY 2014 as of May
2013.
Figure 26
SOURCE: Kaiser Commission on Medicaid and the Uninsured and Urban Institute estimates based on data
from FFY 2009 MSIS and CMS‐64 reports, 2012. 2008 MSIS data was used for PA, UT, and WI, because
2009 data were unavailable.
Duals Account for 38% of Medicaid Spending, FFY 2009
Dual Spending
38%
Total = 62.7 Million Total = $358.5 Billion
Other Elderly
and People
with
Disabilities
10%
Figure 27
*CO, CT, IA, MO, and NC proposed managed FFS models. NY, OK, and
WA proposed both capitated
and managed
FFS models; however NY has withdrawn its managed FFS proposal. All other states proposed capitated
models. WA’s
MOU is for its managed FFS model only; its capitated
proposal remains pending with CMS. HI’s
proposal remains
pending, but it does not anticipate implementation in 2014.
State demonstration proposals to integrate care and align financing for dual eligible beneficiaries, May 2013
Proposal pending with CMS (15
states and WA’s capitated
proposal)
HI*
AK
WA*
OR
WY
UT
TX
SD
OK*
ND
NM
NVNE
MT
LA
KS
ID
CO*CA
ARAZ
WI
WV VA
TNSC
OH
NC*MO*
MS
MN
MI
KY
IA*
INIL
GA
FL
AL
VT
PA
NY*
NJ
NH
MA
ME
CT*
DE
RI
MD
DC
SOURCE: CMS Financial Alignment Initiative, State Financial Alignment Proposals, http://www.cms.gov/Medicare‐
Medicaid‐Coordination/Medicare‐and‐Medicaid‐Coordination/Medicare‐Medicaid‐Coordination‐
Office/FinancialModelstoSupport
StatesEffortsinCareCoordination.html, and state websites.
MOU signed with CMS to implement
demonstration (6 states)
Proposal submitted, will not pursue
financial alignment but may pursue
other administrative or
programmatic alignment (2 states)
Proposal withdrawn (3 states)
Not participating in demonstration
(24 states and DC)
Figure 28
Final Thoughts
• ACA provides a historic opportunity to fill longstanding gaps in
Medicaid coverage for people with low incomes.
• Overall success in reducing the uninsured will be driven by state
actions.
• If a state does not expand Medicaid, many low‐income adults in that
state will likely remain uninsured.
• Outreach and the enrollment experience will be key for translating
expanded eligibility into increased coverage and streamlining eligibility.
• Delivery system reforms and addressing payment and financing issues
may further improve access and incentivize high‐quality care, especially
for high‐need/high‐cost populations.
• New options for long‐term care will facilitate care in the community.