mechthild wörsdörfer, director, sustainability, technology

IEA 2019. All rights reserved.

The energy transition: from now to next

Paris, 4 November 2019

Mechthild Wörsdörfer, Director, Sustainability, Technology and Outlooks


2018 – a remarkable year in energy

Global energy demand grew by 2.3% in 2018, the fastest pace this decade, driven by a robust global

economy, unseasonal weather, and moderate energy prices

Annual change in global primary energy demand, 2011-18

100

200

300

400

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Mtoe

Coal

Oil

Gas

Nuclear

Renewables


Energy-related CO2 emissions hit a record high…

Higher demand for fossil fuels drove up global CO2 emissions for a second year after a brief hiatus.

Increases in efficiency, renewables, coal-to-gas switching and nuclear avoided 640 Mt of CO2 emissions.

Annual change in global energy-related CO2 emissions, 2014-2018

- 200

0

200

400

600

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

MtCO2


Achieving sustainability requires many solutions

Global CO2 emissions in the New Policies and Sustainable Development Scenarios

Energy efficiency and renewables contribute the most to realising the emissions pathway of the

Sustainable Development Scenario, also assisting air quality & energy access goals

10

20

30

40

2010 2020 2030 2040

Gt

CO

2

New Policies Scenario

Sustainable Development

Scenario

Energy efficiency

Renewables

Fuel switching

CCUSOther

Nuclear


Digitalization is impacting all energy demand and supply sectors…

Digital technologies can help improve safety, productivity, and efficiency of energy systems

© Schlumberger


Pre-digital energy systems are defined by unidirectional flows and distinct roles,

The digital transformation of the energy system


Pre-digital energy systems are defined by unidirectional flows and distinct roles; digital

technologies enable a multi-directional and highly integrated energy system

The digital transformation of the energy system


Demand response programs – in buildings, industry and transport - could provide 185 GW of

flexibility, and avoid USD 270 billion of investment in new electricity infrastructure

Smart demand response

1 billion households and

11 billion smart appliances

could actively participate in

interconnected electricity

systems

Residential sector


EVs smart charging would provide further flexibility to the grid, saving between USD 100-280

billion investment in new electricity infrastructure

Smart charging of electric vehicles

EVs standard vs smart chargingCapacity requirement

150 million EVs

140 GW

75 GW

500 million EVs

300 GW

190 GW

Standard charging

Smart charging


Digitalization can help integrate variable renewables by enabling grids to better match energy

demand to times when the sun is shining and the wind is blowing.

Integration of variable renewables

Curtailment of solar PV and wind

7%

2040

Digital flexibility

1.6%


Digitalization can facilitate the deployment of residential solar PV and storage, making it easier to

store and sell surplus electricity to the grid or locally

Distributed energy resources

Blockchain could help to facilitate

peer-to-peer electricity trade

within local energy communities


Digitalisation ‘modernizes’ energy efficiency

Digitalisation can help energy efficiency play a more active role in electricity grids, by improving the

ability to accurately measure energy savings and understand where and when efficiency is delivered.

Illustrative demand-side integration measures


Power system security remains a priority

Digitalisation has to come hand in hand with cybersecurity to maintain system reliability

Cybersecurity will be a focus area of the IEA’s upcoming Electricity Security report

Cybersecurity in a

digital power system

Improving the system’s

capability of response and

recovery

Reinforce grid resilience

through technical

standards

Improve monitoring and control

systems to detect intrusions

Ensuring operational security in grid

connected assets

Improving resilience of IoT

devices

mechthild wörsdörfer, director, sustainability, technology

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