meat trade emerging trends - unece · long term world meat trade developments based on fao data...
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2
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World meat marketdevelopments
Actors – rising share of Asia
Differentiation – EU situation
6
World animal-source food consumption
CAGR
+3.20%
+2.70%
+3.02%
+2.38%
+2.87%
Sharp growth in consumption
World animal-source food consumption
FAO Livestock and Fish Primary Equivalent, 1961-2011
0
100
200
300
400
500
Mill
ion
s o
f to
ns
Seafood
Cheeses
Eggs
Offals
Meats
7
Animal-source food per capita consumption
Huge variations in quantities, CAGRs & breakdown
Growth potential … mainly in the developing world
(kg/capita/year, max. 180kg)
0
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Seafood
Cheese
Eggs
Offals
Meats
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180
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Seafood
Cheese
Eggs
Offals
Meats
0
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120
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160
180
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01
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03
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04
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05
20
06
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07
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Seafood
Cheese
Eggs
Offals
Meats
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
19
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01
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03
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04
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05
20
06
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07
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Seafood
Cheese
Eggs
Offals
Meats
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
19
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01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
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Seafood
Cheese
Eggs
Offals
Meats
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
19
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19
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01
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03
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04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
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Seafood
Cheese
Eggs
Offals
Meats
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
19
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01
20
02
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03
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04
20
05
20
06
20
07
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08
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09
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11
Seafood
Cheese
Eggs
Offals
Meats
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
19
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11
Seafood
Cheese
Eggs
Offals
Meats
North America
South America
East Asia
South Asia
S.E. Asia
Oceania
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
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01
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05
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07
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10
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11
Seafood
Cheese
Eggs
Offals
Meats
West Asia
Europe
Africa
0
100
200
300
400
500
Mill
ion
s o
f to
ns
Seafood
Cheeses
Eggs
Offals
Meats
8
Animal-source food consumption trends
Further decline in meat share
CAGR = +1.8% in total
Meats: +1.6%
Offal: +1.3%
Eggs: +2.1%
Cheeses: +1.6%
Seafood: +2.4%
World animal-source food consumption, OECD-FAO, 2010/2020
295
49
344
15
2
1760
14
7420
3
24129
34
163
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
550
600
650
2010 Meats Offal Eggs Cheeses Seafood 2020
Mill
ions t
Source: Gira, based on OECD-FAO
520.3
623.2
9
World meat consumption
CAGR
+3.01%
+1.85%
+4.98%
+2.99%
+1.59%
+1.64%
Growth in poultry meat and pork mainly
World animal-source food consumption
FAO Livestock and Fish Primary Equivalent, 1961-2011
0
100
200
300
400
500
1961
1963
1965
1967
1969
1971
1973
1975
1977
1979
1981
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
Mill
ion
s o
f to
ns
Other animal-source foods
Other meats
Poultry meat
Pork
Sheep meat
Beef
10
Meat consumption trends
Continuous rise in the poultry meat share of the
meat basket
CAGR = +1.6% in total
Beef: +0.9%
Sheep meat: +1.9%
Pork: +1.2%
Poultry meat: +2.1%
Others: +3.0%
World meat consumption, OECD-FAO, 2010/2020
65
+6
71
13
+3
16
110
+14
124
100
+24
124
+2
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
2010 Beef Sheep meat Pork Poultry meat Other meats 2020
Mill
ions t
Source: Gira, based on OECD-FAO
295.4
344.5
11
Long term world meat trade developments
Based on FAO data – exports – includes intra-EU trade
Sheep = sheep + goat
From 3.5 to 44 mio t
Dynamic markets except for sheep meat
World meat trade in volumes, 1961-2013
CAGR= +5.0% in total
Beef: +4.0%
Sheep meat: +1.8%
Pork: +5.1%
Poultry meat: +8.0%
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
1961
196
3
196
5
196
7
196
9
197
1
197
3
197
5
197
7
197
9
198
1
198
3
198
5
198
7
198
9
199
1
199
3
199
5
199
7
199
9
2001
2003
200
5
200
7
200
9
201
1
201
3
Mill
ions t
onnes p
w Beef
Pork
Poultry meat
Sheep meat
Source: Gira, based on FAO
12
Long term world meat trade developments
In indices, poultry meat changes dwarf those of
other meats
World meat trade indices, 1961-2013 (vol., 1961=100)
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
196
1
196
3
196
5
196
7
196
9
197
1
197
3
197
5
1977
1979
1981
198
3
198
5
198
7
198
9
199
1
199
3
199
5
199
7
199
9
200
1
200
3
200
5
200
7
200
9
201
1
201
3
Beef
Pork
Poultry meat
Sheep meat
Source: Gira, based on FAO
13
2015-2016: global meat market context
Changing domestic meat demand characteristics and apparent international competitiveness
2015 was a year of dramatic currency changewith sharply strengthening USD
60%
110%
160%
210%
260%
310%
360%
Jan
-08
Sep
-08
May
-09
Jan
-10
Sep
-10
May
-11
Jan
-12
Sep
-12
May
-13
Jan
-14
Sep
-14
May
-15
Jan
-16
Cu
rre
ncy
pe
r U
SD in
de
xed
on
Jan
20
08
Currency index per USD
RUB/USD
BRL/USD
EUR/USD
AUD/USD
JPY/USD
CNY/USD
14
World meat trade volumes – Dec 15 forecasts
2015: slight decrease (except Pk)… with US challenges
2016: positive trade growth (except for Sh) – especially Py
11
12
11
11
-1.5%11
4.5%12
9
9
9
9
-2.1%9
0.2%9
7
8
8
7
4.7%8
2.4%8
1
1
1
1
-4.6%1
-1.9%1
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
24
26
28
30
32
34
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
(Mill
ion
t cw
e)
Fig SYN-GEN International Meat Trade Volumes, 2011-2016(f)
Sheepmeat
Pigmeat
Beef & Veal
Poultrymeat
Total: 29.1 mio t (-0.2%)
Total: 29.8 mio t(+2.4%)
Likely to be
higher growth
than this
World meat marketdevelopments
Actors – rising share of Asia
Differentiation – EU situation
16
World beef trade – GMC data
+ 9 mio tcwe, c15% of world production
Growing: CAGR +2.4% from 2000 to 2015
Asia share:
• Exports: from 9% in 2005 to 22% in 2015 (IN mainly, but also HK to CN)
• Imports: from 22% in 2005 to 42% in 2015
• 6 countries importing > 0.1 mio t each (CN – direct and grey through VN/HK, but also JP, KR & MY)
Asia doubled its share of world imports in 10 years
16
World beef exporters, 2000-2015 World beef importers, 2000-2015
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
2000 2005 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Mil
lio
n t
on
ne
s cw
e
Others
NZ
AU
IN
UY
PY
BR
AR
US
CA
EU
Source: Gira Meat Club
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
2000 2005 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Mil
lio
n t
on
ne
s cw
e
Others
O.F.East
KR
JP
ME/NA
S.Am
US
CA
SU/RU
EU
Source: Gira Meat Club
17
World pork trade – GMC data
+ 8 mio tcwe, c6% of world prodution
Sharp growth in the 2000s, slower now: CAGR +5.4% since 2000
Asia share:
• Exports: from 7% in 2005 to 3% in 2015 (no Asian country exports > 0.1 mio t)
• Imports: from 46% in 2005 to 53% in 2015
• 4 countries importing > 0.1 mio t each (JP, CN, KR & HK)
Asia concentrating more than 50% of world imports
17
World pork exporters, 2000-2015 World pork importers, 2000-2015
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
2000 2005 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Mil
lio
n t
on
ne
s cw
e
Others
CN/HK
BR
MX
US
CA
CIS
EU
Source: Gira Meat Club
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
2000 2005 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Mil
lio
n t
on
ne
s cw
e
Others
KR
JP
CN/HK
US
CA
SU/RU
EU
Source: Gira Meat Club
18
World poultry meat trade – GMC data
+ 11 mio tcwe, c15% of world production
Growing trade (despite some recent setback): CAGR +4.3%
Asia share:
• Exports: from 5% in 2005 to 10% in 2015 (HK, CN and TH > 0.1 mio t)
• Imports: from 24% in 2005 to 28% in 2015
• 8 countries importing > 0.1 mio t each ( HK, VN & JP > 0.5 mio t, + CN, TW, PH, SG & KR)
The least concentrated import market
38 countries > 0.1 mio t – Asia = + ¼ of the total
18
World poultrymeat exporters, 2000-2015 World poultrymeat importers, 2000-2015
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
2000 2005 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Mil
lio
n t
on
ne
s cw
e
Others
TH
CN/HK
BR
US
EU
Source: Gira Meat Club
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
2000 2005 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Mil
lio
n t
on
ne
s cw
e
Others
JP
CN/HK
SSA
MENA
SU/RU
EU
Source: Gira Meat Club
19
World sheep meat trade – GMC data
+ 1 mio tcwe, c8% of world production
Flat market: CAGR +0.6%, supply is the limiting factor
Asia share:
• Exports: from 5% in 2005 to 4% in 2015 (IN & PK > 10,000 t)
• Imports: from 17% in 2005 to 35% in 2015
• 5 countries importing > 10,000 t each (CN > 0.1 mio t, + MY, TW, JP, SG between 10 & 50,000 t)
19
World sheepmeat exporters, 2000-2015 World sheepmeat importers, 2000-2015
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
2000 2005 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Mil
lio
n t
on
ne
s cw
e
Others
NZ
AU
S.Am
CEECs
EU
Source: Gira Meat Club
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
2000 2005 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Mil
lio
n t
on
ne
s cw
e
Others
O. F.East
CN
ME/NA
N.Am
SU/RU
EU
Source: Gira Meat Club
20
World meat importers
CN by far the major player – though not alone
Rising Asian imports and share of the total
Asia 2015 imports
- Beef: 2.8 mio t
05-15 CAGR +10.5%
- Pork: 2.6 mio t
05-15 CAGR +5.7%
- Poultry meat 3.2 mio t
05-15 CAGR +6.8%
- Sheep meat 0.3 mio t
05-15 CAGR +9.3%
- Offal 2.3 mio t
05-15 CAGR +13.5%
World meat importers/region, 2005/2015
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
05 15 05 15 05 15 05 15
Beef Pork Poultrymeat Sheepmeat
Oceania
N. Asia
S.E. Asia
S. Asia
Other Africa
MENA
Russia/CIS
Other W. Europe
EU-28
S. America
C. America
N. America
Source: Gira, based on Trademap
-
500
1 000
1 500
2 000
2 500
3 000
3 500
4 000
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015e 2016p
Imp
ort
s (0
00
t p
w)
Sheepmeat Grey +33.2%
Sheepmeat Direct+28.9%
Poultry Grey +4.5%
Poultry Direct +5.8%
Pork Grey +24.7%
Pork Direct +46.5%
Beef Grey +64.5%
Beef Direct +106.5%
C.A.G.R 2006-14 (%)
Source: Gira compilation
GMC15: Total CN imports: Direct + Grey ChannelsHuge variation in importance of grey channel between
species
Figures do not include offal… which has
higher grey channel shipments.
CAGR
+18%
1H16 CN imports are running at higher levels
than was forecast at GMC15
21
22
World meat exporters
IN the major player (Bf) + CN and TH (Py)
HK mostly reexports to CN (Bf, Pk, Py)
Asia Exports Bf and Py
Asia 2015 exports
- Beef: 1,5 mio t
05-15 CAGR +13.3%
- Pork: 0.2 mio t
05-15 CAGR -5.3%
- Poultry meat 1.1 mio t
05-15 CAGR +11.2%
- Sheep meat 0.04 mio t
05-15 CAGR -1.1%
- Offal 0.5 mio t
05-15 CAGR +16.6%
World meat exporters/region, 2005/2015
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
05 15 05 15 05 15 05 15
Beef Pork Poultrymeat Sheepmeat
Oceania
N. Asia
S.E. Asia
S. Asia
Other Africa
MENA
Russia/CIS
Other W. Europe
EU-28
S. America
C. America
N. America
Source: Gira, based on Trademap
World meat marketdevelopments
Actors – rising share of Asia
Differentiation – EU situation
24
Development of certifications
A tool to show FBOs are doing what is needed to:
• Provide safe foods
• Meet their responsibilities
Independent certifying body increases credibility
• Perceived by the consumer to be more solid and trustworthy than brands
BRC Global Standards’ and International Featured Standards (IFS) based on• ISO 9001 (quality control and assurance)
• Good Manufacturing Principles (cleaning & disinfection, pest control, maintenance, training)
• HACCP (Hazard Analysis Critical Control Point) principles
Initially focused on sanitary guarantees
25
Consumer questioning
Anti-meat lobbying is not a new issue
But it is gaining strength due to:
• New arguments
− Nutritional risks
− Public health fears (incl. AB)
− Animal welfare
− Environmental protection
− Frauds scandals
− What next?
• Modern communication
− More books, publications, documentaries, etc.
− Social networking
− Camera developments
− Dissemination of revolting images of cruelty to animals
• High profile people taking side
• Shoppers unconsciously looking for a justification to reduce their purchases due to economic
difficulties
Continued suspicions about meat
In a context of much anti-meat communication
Public health
Nutrition
Animal Welfare
Environment
Frauds
26
A saturated market
Shoppers overwhelmed by a variety of options
• And store owners have to make a preselection, deciding which products to put on the shelves
Raw meat purchase no more a daily must:
• Reduced energy needs
• Development of further processed meat products, with higher convenience content
• Widespread availability of other animal proteins
• Development of meat substitutes – often with taken names from the butchery vocabulary
Economic crisis
• Meat remains an expensive item
• Reduction of consumer spend
− Reduce meat quantities:
less on each purchase occasion
or less frequently
− Switch to cheaper products:
species (Bf Pk or Py)
or cuts (fillet minced)
More food options and less needs
With the added impact of the economic crisis
% of shoppers "satisfied with the price of
meat", 2011
27
Vegetarianism
4-5% vegetarians in the EU
• Estimates only given a lack of hard data
Developing
• Great increase in number of products in
modern retail and catering
• Multiplication of specialised retailers and
restaurants
Flexitarianism likely a more serious threat
Vegans – Vegetalians – Vegetarians
and Flexitarians...
% of vegetarians in the EU, 2014
28
Need to differentiate
Certification to meet society demands and
avoid/delay price wars
Need to differentiate
Competition
(incl. HD dvpt)
Regulatory
pressureConsumer
demands
Certification3rd party
Premium price
PriceNo win
BrandingTrust?
Value/cost?
29
Raw meat modern retailing differentiation schemes
Huge variations in % of
differentiated
• Reputed brands may reduce the
need for quality certification
• Highest share in Py
Official quality signs (organic,
PDO/PGIs) have small market
shares
• Severe constraints and high
added costs
Possible overlap between
differentiation schemes (e.g.
organic within a PDO)
Quality differentiation set to
increase
• Organic to record the highest
CAGR
Quality differentiation (if any) mainly through quality
assurance schemes
Raw meat retailing by quality differentiation scheme &
country, EU, 2014
30
Quality certification
Origin (local vs. national)
Breed
Animal category
Production method
• Feed
• Extensive vs. intensive (grass-/grain-fed, free range…)
• Organic
• Animal welfare requirements
• Halal and Kosher production & slaughter methods
Emerging trends
• Environmental protection – lack of common understanding on methods and indicators…
• Social values (as part of sustainability) – even less understood!
− Presently focusing on "small local producers"
• Definition difficulties means these are presently used in communication more than in certification
Little focus – up to now – on sustainability
31
Conclusions
Developing world meat trade
• Mainly in Py and Pk
Sharp rise in Asian imports
• But rise in share of total imports mainly in Bf and Sh
CN accounts for the bulk of this rising Asian importance
• Even more when taking Grey trade into account
Quality certification gaining importance in the developed markets
• At retail level mainly
• In many markets a large share of international trade focuses on the catering channels
Need for environmental/sustainability certification
• Definition?