measuring student participation in higher education with special reference to south africa gert...

MEASURING STUDENT PARTICIPATION IN

HIGHER EDUCATION WITH SPECIAL

REFERENCE TO SOUTH AFRICA

Gert Steyn

1

2

Planning is always difficult – especially when it has to do with the future

GOVERNMENT STEERING OF THE PUBLIC HE SYSTEM

QUALITY PLANNING FUNDING

Institutionalquality audits

Accreditation of academic

programmes

Approval of institutional missions, operational and

equity plans, academic programme profiles

Student enrolment plans

Institutional inputs & outputs for

funding

New funding framework

Government funds allocated to HE

institutions

HEMIS data analyses

3

MINISTRY OF EDUCATION: NATIONAL PLAN FOR HIGHER EDUCATION (2001)

• “ To ensure an adequate supply of high-level human resources for social and economic development, an increased participation rate of 20% of the age group 20-24 in public higher education should be the target over the next 10-15 years.”

• “ To ensure that the student and staff profiles progressively reflect the demographic realities of South African society”

4

Contents of paper

• Participation/Enrolment rates: Definitions of Various participation rate indicators Calculations of indicators for SA according to race

and gender for 2001 and 2007 Benchmarking with other countries

• Age distributions and participation rates: Measuring shifts in age distributions of different

student groups in SA from 2001 to 2007 by means of

the Kolmogorov- Smirnov statistic

• Conclusions

5

Source report

Steyn A G W. 2009. Measuring student participation in the higher education sector in South Africa. Technical report.

http://sun025.sun.ac.za/portal/page/portal/AdministrativeDivisions/INB/Home/Documentation/Documentation Internal Publications

[email protected]

Important data sources used in report:

• HEMIS summary data for 2001 and 2007 provided by DoHET

• Census data for 1991, 1996 and 2001. Statistics SA• Mid-year estimates of individual ages. Statistics SA

http://sun025.sun.ac.za/portal/page/portal/Administrative

6

Other important sources:

• Kaiser F & O’Heron H. 2005. Myths and methods on access and

participation in higher education in international comparison. A

thematic report. Center for Higher Education Policy Studies.

(Use six reference countries: Netherlands, Sweden, Finland, Canada,

UK and USA)

• Annual reports of OECD: Education at a Glance (OECD indicators)

• Annual reports of UNESCO Institute for Statistics: Global Education

Digest

7

Two most well-known Participation rates

Gross Enrolment Rate (GER)

GER = Total number of enrolments in higher education x 100% Population size in (logical) 5-year age interval

Net Enrolment Rate (NER)

NER = Total number of enrolments in HE in (logical) 5-year age interval x 100%

Population size in (logical) 5-year age interval

8

GER and NER for SA (NPHE age interval 20-24 years)

TABLE 1: CALCULATION OF GROSS AND NET ENROLMENT RATES IN HIGHER EDUCATION USING THE THE AGE INTERVAL 20 - 24 YEARS ACCORDING TO RACE, GENDER AND YEAR

Year Race/ GenderHeadcount

enrolments in HE

Headcount enrolments in HE

in age group 20-24Population size in age group 20-24

Gross enrolment rate (GER) (%)

Net enrolment rate (NER) (%)

% increase in GER

2001 to 2007

% increase in NER

2001 to 2007

% increase in GER

1996 to 2007

19911) African 137617 1812487 7.59Coloured 29579 306505 9.65Indian 29104 82972 35.08White 227960 378773 60.18Total 424260 2580737 16.44Male 243819 1238065 19.69Female 180441 1342672 13.44

1996 African 308104 3153083 9.77Coloured 32742 344373 9.51Indian 37118 103123 35.99White 198904 349102 56.98Total 576868 3982353 14.49Male 301725 1917918 15.73Female 275143 2064435 13.33

2001 African 408262 109204 3602907 11.33 3.03Coloured 35686 9851 392323 9.10 2.51Indian 44152 15308 104265 42.35 14.68White 177267 66060 336238 52.72 19.65Total 665367 200423 4435733 15.00 4.52Male 307302 97400 2128470 14.44 4.58Female 358065 103023 2307263 15.52 4.47African 478146 169615 3890291 12.29 4.36 8.47 43.85 25.78

2007 Coloured 49211 17159 378912 12.99 4.53 42.78 80.35 36.60Indian 52748 19201 116243 45.38 16.52 7.16 12.51 26.07White 180985 79177 318831 56.77 24.83 7.67 26.40 -0.37Total 761090 285152 4704277 16.18 6.06 7.86 34.15 11.69Male 338555 133091 2306426 14.68 5.77 1.67 26.10 -6.69Female 422535 152061 2397851 17.62 6.34 13.55 42.02 32.22

1) Excluding so-alled TBVC countries

9

GER and NER for SA (UNESCO age interval 18-22 years)

TABLE 2: CALCULATION OF GROSS AND NET ENROLMENT RATES IN HIGHER EDUCATION USING THE THE AGE INTERVAL 18 - 22 YEARS ACCORDING TO RACE, GENDER AND YEAR

Year Race/ GenderHeadcount

enrolments in HE

Headcount enrolments in HE

in age group 18-22Population size in age group 18-22

Gross enrolment rate (GER) (%)

Net enrolment rate (NER) (%)

% increase in GER

2001 to 2007

% increase in NER

2001 to 2007

2001 African 408262 124995 3682002 11.09 3.39Coloured 35686 14164 385337 9.26 3.68Indian 44152 21229 107071 41.24 19.83White 177267 89483 346768 51.12 25.80Total 665367 249871 4521178 14.72 5.53Male 307302 114258 2172316 14.15 5.26Female 358065 135612 2348861 15.24 5.77African 478146 194312 4050438 11.80 4.80 6.46 41.32

2007 Coloured 49211 23120 386969 12.72 5.97 37.32 62.54Indian 52748 26115 113443 46.50 23.02 12.76 16.11White 180985 99991 327129 55.33 30.57 8.23 18.45Total 761090 343538 4877979 15.60 7.04 6.02 27.43Male 338555 152605 2418372 14.00 6.31 -1.04 19.97Female 422535 190933 2459606 17.18 7.76 12.69 34.45

Data sources: 2001 enrolments : Department of Education (2001). Education Statistics in South Africa at a Glance in 2001; 2001 population numbers according to age :Statistics SA

2007 enrolments : Department of Education (2007). HEMIS data base; 2007 population numbers according to age : Statistics SA

10

GER Benchmarking according to UNESCO (2008)

TABLE 3: GROSS ENROLMENT RATE (%) (GER) OF SOUTH AFRICA AND THE DIFFERENT

REGIONS OF THE WORLD ACCORDING TO GENDER FOR 1999 AND 20061)

Region Male Female Total No.of countries Total2006 2006 2006 included in 2006 1999

WORLD 24 25 25 146 18Arab States 22 22 22 17 19Central & Eastern Europe 53 66 60 18 38Central Asia 24 26 25 8 18East Asia & the Pacific 25 24 25 18 14Latin America & the Caribbean 29 34 31 27 21North America & Western Eur. 60 80 70 22 61South & West Asia 12 9 11 7 naSub-Saharan Africa 6 4 5 29 4South Africa 14 17 15 14

1) For countries where GER for 2006 was not available the newest rates were used.Source: UNESCO Institute for Statistics (2008): Global Education Digest 2008

11

Measuring increase in access to HE: The net entry rate based on synthetic cohorts of new entrants

The difference between a longitudinal cohort study and a synthetic cohort study of new entrants:

Longitudinal cohort study accurate but take n years

Synthetic cohort study is an approximation but takes only I year

Net entry rate = Σj {(New entrants aged j)/(pop. size aged j)}x100%,

where the summation covers the ages 17 to 70

years.

Other age intervals are sometimes used, e. g. 17-30 yrs in the UK.

12

The calculation of the Net entry rate is cumbersome

CALCULATION OF NET ENTRY RATES (%) FOR SOUTH AFRICA IN 2001 AND 2007 ACCORDING TO GENDER

AgeFemale

entrantsFemale

populationMale

entrantsMale

populationTotal

entrantsTotal

populationFemale

entrantsFemale

populationMale

entrantsMale

populationTotal

entrantsTotal

populationFemale

entry rateMale entry

rateTotal entry

rateFemale entry

rateMale entry

rateTotal entry

rate

17 9182 483909 5515 449957 14701 933867 10542 508792 6205 518912 16747 1027704 1.8975 1.2257 1.5742 2.0720 1.1958 1.6296

18 19970 479567 15759 443161 35735 922728 23722 503872 18281 509075 42003 1012947 4.1642 3.5560 3.8728 4.7079 3.5910 4.1466

19 8958 475346 8404 439689 17364 915035 11189 498261 11144 496490 22333 994751 1.8845 1.9114 1.8976 2.2456 2.2446 2.2451

20 5254 470377 5736 435046 10991 905423 6133 492271 6680 483817 12813 976087 1.1170 1.3185 1.2139 1.2459 1.3807 1.3127

21 3617 464147 3850 429541 7469 893688 3850 485819 4506 470361 8356 956180 0.7793 0.8963 0.8357 0.7925 0.9580 0.8739

22 2691 459424 2819 424879 5513 884303 2974 479384 3216 458629 6190 938013 0.5857 0.6635 0.6234 0.6204 0.7012 0.6599

23 2067 457276 2197 421264 4268 878540 2369 473228 2378 450087 4747 923315 0.4520 0.5215 0.4858 0.5006 0.5283 0.5141

24 1602 456039 1732 417740 3342 873779 2032 467149 1804 443533 3836 910682 0.3513 0.4146 0.3825 0.4350 0.4067 0.4212

25 1380 454016 1459 414013 2846 868030 1759 460382 1439 435905 3198 896287 0.3040 0.3524 0.3279 0.3821 0.3301 0.3568

26 1126 452790 1314 411187 2444 863976 1588 452723 1287 427342 2875 880065 0.2487 0.3196 0.2829 0.3508 0.3012 0.3267

27 1117 444303 1067 402191 2191 846494 1430 445653 1162 419547 2592 865200 0.2514 0.2653 0.2588 0.3209 0.2770 0.2996

28 975 424774 1000 383810 1984 808584 1340 439715 1074 412909 2414 852625 0.2295 0.2605 0.2454 0.3047 0.2601 0.2831

29 829 398450 838 359637 1679 758087 1282 434052 1024 406510 2306 840562 0.2081 0.2330 0.2215 0.2954 0.2519 0.2743

30 786 373079 835 336347 1630 709426 1223 427803 935 399772 2158 827575 0.2107 0.2483 0.2298 0.2859 0.2339 0.2608

31 731 346775 702 312442 1442 659218 1123 421793 946 393686 2069 815479 0.2108 0.2247 0.2187 0.2662 0.2403 0.2537

32 662 325548 737 292460 1409 618008 1043 411801 847 382494 1890 794295 0.2033 0.2520 0.2280 0.2533 0.2214 0.2379

33 577 313066 594 279281 1180 592347 999 395850 717 363552 1716 759402 0.1843 0.2127 0.1992 0.2524 0.1972 0.2260

34 548 306415 577 270759 1134 577174 962 376163 722 339838 1684 716002 0.1788 0.2131 0.1965 0.2557 0.2125 0.2352

35 538 298743 495 261548 1040 560291 745 357085 572 317025 1317 674110 0.1801 0.1893 0.1856 0.2086 0.1804 0.1954

36 490 291094 462 252342 961 543436 734 337915 563 294039 1297 631954 0.1683 0.1831 0.1768 0.2172 0.1915 0.2052

37 399 284453 455 244904 860 529358 672 320370 457 273876 1129 594245 0.1403 0.1858 0.1625 0.2098 0.1669 0.1900

38 388 278517 362 239459 759 517976 646 305797 466 258621 1112 564418 0.1393 0.1512 0.1465 0.2113 0.1802 0.1970

39 323 273036 300 235333 630 508368 537 293532 357 246969 894 540501 0.1183 0.1275 0.1239 0.1829 0.1446 0.1654

40 314 268246 299 231732 616 499978 435 281082 292 235045 727 516127 0.1171 0.1290 0.1232 0.1548 0.1242 0.1409

41 308 264323 218 228939 534 493262 389 268370 282 223045 671 491415 0.1165 0.0952 0.1083 0.1449 0.1264 0.1365

42 294 258708 219 224728 519 483436 359 259042 208 214363 567 473405 0.1136 0.0975 0.1074 0.1386 0.0970 0.1198

43 201 250220 194 217946 396 468166 338 254482 182 210115 520 464597 0.0803 0.0890 0.0846 0.1328 0.0866 0.1119

44 238 239954 161 209533 401 449487 315 252968 209 208753 524 461721 0.0992 0.0768 0.0892 0.1245 0.1001 0.1135

45 210 230141 151 201601 365 431742 274 251527 144 207727 418 459254 0.0912 0.0749 0.0845 0.1089 0.0693 0.0910

46 171 220279 141 193752 316 414031 268 250914 135 207684 403 458598 0.0776 0.0728 0.0763 0.1068 0.0650 0.0879

47 123 211251 94 186087 218 397337 228 248203 130 205691 358 453894 0.0582 0.0505 0.0549 0.0919 0.0632 0.0789

48 96 203703 75 178874 172 382578 201 241687 110 200071 311 441758 0.0471 0.0419 0.0450 0.0832 0.0550 0.0704

49 78 197129 40 171969 121 369098 178 232725 84 192132 262 424858 0.0396 0.0233 0.0328 0.0765 0.0437 0.0617

50 69 190393 50 164945 119 355338 121 224435 56 184894 177 409329 0.0362 0.0303 0.0335 0.0539 0.0303 0.0432

51 72 183749 46 157875 118 341624 97 216254 50 177794 147 394048 0.0392 0.0291 0.0345 0.0449 0.0281 0.0373

52 43 177046 28 151013 71 328058 99 208113 34 170751 133 378864 0.0243 0.0185 0.0216 0.0476 0.0199 0.0351

53 34 170103 38 144439 72 314542 64 200310 36 164042 100 364352 0.0200 0.0263 0.0229 0.0320 0.0219 0.0274

54 28 163075 14 138083 42 301158 46 192730 33 157540 79 350270 0.0172 0.0101 0.0139 0.0239 0.0209 0.0226

55 22 156255 16 131787 38 288042 29 184948 16 150819 45 335767 0.0141 0.0121 0.0132 0.0157 0.0106 0.0134

56 13 149534 19 125570 32 275104 28 177030 14 143939 42 320968 0.0087 0.0151 0.0116 0.0158 0.0097 0.0131

57 17 143180 9 119447 26 262627 21 169437 10 137294 31 306731 0.0119 0.0075 0.0099 0.0124 0.0073 0.0101

58 12 137339 6 113406 18 250745 12 162351 12 131033 24 293384 0.0087 0.0053 0.0072 0.0074 0.0092 0.0082

59 3 131844 7 107440 10 239284 8 155625 5 125021 13 280646 0.0023 0.0065 0.0042 0.0051 0.0040 0.0046

60 5 126401 1 101587 6 227989 5 148926 7 119003 12 267929 0.0040 0.0010 0.0026 0.0034 0.0059 0.0045

61 2 121096 4 95878 6 216974 5 142313 4 113065 9 255378 0.0017 0.0042 0.0028 0.0035 0.0035 0.0035

62 4 115630 2 90100 6 205729 4 135793 3 106987 7 242779 0.0035 0.0022 0.0029 0.0029 0.0028 0.0029

63 109832 1 84164 1 193996 3 129332 100643 3 229975 0.0000 0.0012 0.0005 0.0023 0.0000 0.0013

64 103852 3 78183 3 182035 3 122941 94166 3 217107 0.0000 0.0038 0.0016 0.0024 0.0000 0.0014

65 1 98023 2 72366 3 170389 1 116677 1 87833 2 204510 0.0010 0.0028 0.0018 0.0009 0.0011 0.0010

66 92293 66679 158972 2 110538 81619 2 192157 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0018 0.0000 0.0010

67 2 86666 1 61235 3 147901 104431 2 75522 2 179953 0.0023 0.0016 0.0020 0.0000 0.0026 0.0011

68 81180 1 56113 1 137293 98318 69580 167898 0.0000 0.0018 0.0007 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000

69 75830 51273 127103 92240 63808 156048 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000

70 70586 1 46600 1 117186 86287 1 58210 1 144497 0.0000 0.0021 0.0009 0.0000 0.0017 0.0007

Total 66570 14039007 59050 12360333.67 125806 26399340.73 82427 15509436.57 68842 13821182.81 151269 29330619.38 15.2428 14.8585 15.0845 18.0557 15.4057 16.7551

2001 2007 2001 2007

13

Net entry rate benchmarking according to OECD (2003, 2007)

TABLE 4: NET ENTRY RATES (%) (BASED ON AGES 17-70) OF SOUTH AFRICA AND THE OECD COUNTRIES IN SELECTED YEARS ACCORDING TO GENDER

CountryMale Female Total Male Female Total

Australia 58 72 65 74 91 82Austria 31 37 34 34 41 37Belgium 32 33 32 29 38 33Czech Rep. 26 35 30 39 44 41Denmark 33 56 44 45 69 57Finland 62 83 72 63 84 73France 30 43 37Germany 32 33 32 36 36 36Greece 30 39 48 43Hungary 50 63 56 57 78 68Iceland 42 80 61 53 96 74Ireland 33 43 38 39 51 45Italy 38 50 44 49 64 56Japan 48 33 41 47 34 41Korea 52 45 49 54 47 51Mexico 26 25 26 39 30 30Netherlands 51 58 54 54 63 59New Zealand 62 89 76 64 93 79Norway 48 76 62 63 89 76Poland 67 70 83 76Slovak Rep 40 39 40 52 67 59Spain 42 54 48 37 51 43Sweden 55 84 69 64 89 76Switzerland 37 29 33 36 38 37Turkey 23 18 20 30 24 27United Kingdom 41 49 45 45 58 51United States 36 49 42 56 71 64OECD average 41 51 46 49 61 54

South Africa1)15 15 15 15 18 17

African 12 14 Coloured 10 14 Indian 41 38 White 46 48

1) Entry rates indicated under 2005 is for 2007

2001 2005

14

Additional 3 participation rate indicators defined by Kaiser & O’Heron (2005)

Initial Participation Rate (IPR)

IPR = Sum of the number of FTUG students in the 4 largest age groups in enrolment x 100%

Sum of total population in corresponding age groups

Varying Pathways Participation Rate (VPPR)

VPPR = Sum of the number of UG students in the 4 largest age groups in enrolment x 100%


Extended Participation Rate (EPR)

EPR = Sum of the number of UG students in the 7 largest age groups in enrolment x 100%


All three indicators are calculated for 2001 and 2007 (race, gender) by Steyn (2009) and compared to corresponding indicator values of Kaiser & O’Herons’s reference countries.

15

Analysis of age distributions of SA higher education students

Why are age distributions of students enrolled in higher education important?

1. A change over time in participation rate indicators based on a specific age interval could be partly the result of changes in age distributions

2001 2007 % of HE students (contact) aged 20-24 years 41.69 45.99 % of population in age interval 20-24 years 9.87 9.74

2. Monitoring the progress in achieving equity in race and gender access to HE, also regarding their ages while participating in HE. Heterogeneity in age distributions of the different student groups (gender, race, contact/distance, under/postgraduate) over time are very significant and should be taken into account in higher education policy development

16

Different representations of enrolments of students in higher education in 2007 according to race and age

A) Frequency polygon

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

45000

50000

Age

Hea

dcou

nt o

f stu

dent

s

African Coloured Indian White

17

Different representations of enrolments of students in higher education in 2007 according to race and age (cont)

B) Standardised frequency polygon

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

Age

Sta

ndar

dise

d H

eadc

ount

of

stud

ents


18


C) Cumulative standardised frequency polygon

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

Age

Cum

ulat

ive

Stan

dard

ised

H

eadc

ount

of s

tude

nts


19


20

Comparing age distributions of 4 race groups in 2007

TABLE 9: COMPARING THE ENROLMENT AGE DISTRIBUTIONS OF THE FOUR RACE GROUPS IN 2007 BY MEANS OF THE D STATISTIC OF KOLMOGOROV- SMIRNOV1)

Africans Coloureds Indians Africans Coloureds 0.069 Indians 0.123 0.081 Whites 0.130 0.085 0.019 1) Calculated as the respective maximum absolute differences (for all ages between 15 and 75) of the four populations’ distribution functions. The values of D could therefore be interpreted as the (absolute) difference in the probabilities for a randomly selected enrolled student from the two race groups to have an age lower than, or equal to, the age where the (absolute) difference in probabilities is the highest.

21

Changes in age distributions of 5 student groups between 2001 and 2007 according to race and gender

TABLE 10: MEDIAN AGES AND KOLMOGOROV-SMIRNOV STATISTIC IN 2001 AND 2007 ACCORDING TO STUDENT GROUP, RACE AND GENDER

Student GroupMedian KS-Stat Median KS-Stat Median KS-Stat Median KS-Stat Median KS-Stat

Africans 2001 25.28 21.16 32.32 23.74 19.542007 23.20 20.92 31.11 22.10 19.38

Coloureds 2001 22.61 20.33 28.00 21.23 17.932007 22.01 20.47 28.51 21.06 18.22

Indians 2001 21.28 19.57 24.96 20.25 17.602007 21.24 19.77 24.63 20.28 17.53

Whites 2001 21.59 20.14 26.88 20.27 17.832007 21.31 20.28 25.96 20.35 17.88

TOTAL 2001 23.54 20.65 30.41 22.09 18.682007 22.41 20.63 29.27 21.41 18.74

Female 2001 23.03 20.31 30.96 21.95 18.412007 22.37 20.39 29.53 21.33 18.59

Male 2001 23.06 21.02 29.78 22.24 18.962007 22.45 20.90 28.90 21.49 18.88

Undergraduates

0.0368

0.1064

0.0594

0.0479

All students Contact-tuition stud. Distance-tuition stud.

0.0579

0.0408

0.0518

0.0652

UG New entrants

0.0802

0.0364

0.0199

0.0322

0.0470

0.0857

0.0831

0.0308

0.0237

0.0287

0.0311

0.0878

0.0352

0.0257

0.02560.0511

0.0828 0.0577

0.0512

0.0656

0.0202

0.0611

0.0674

0.0288

0.0190

0.0409

0.0144

22

The biggest change in the age distributions of 2001and 2007

FIGURE 3: STANDARDISED ENROLMENT OF DISTANCE-TUITION STUDENTS ACCORDING TO AGE AND YEAR

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Age

Sta

nd

ard

ised

hea

dco

un

t o

f st

ud

ents

2001-stand 2007-stand

23

Some of the conclusions

1. Attaining a GER of 20% in South Africa over the next 5 to 6 years (NPHE target) is highly unlikely.

2. There are a variety of measures available that could be used to monitor the participation in HE in South Africa annually. The well-known GER is not the best.

3. The “average increase” in participation rate according to race/gender from 2001 to 2007 were:

RSA - 22% Male – 14% Female – 27% Africans – 31% Coloureds – 55% Indians – 8% Whites –

14%4. The GER for SA is much lower than the world average. As far

as the different regions of the world is concerned it is higher than the average for Sub-Saharan Africa and South and West Asia.

5. The most significant changes in the age distributions of sub-groups of students over the period 2001 to 2007 occurred in the distance-tuition group. The median age of this group decreased from 30.41 to 29.27.

24

Thank you for not snoring

Thank you

measuring student participation in higher education with special reference to south africa gert...

Documents