measuring public opinion sampling techniques –representative sampling most important principle in...
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Measuring Public Opinion
• Sampling Techniques–Representative sampling
• Most important principle in sampling = randomness
– Every person should have a known chance, and especially an equal chance, of being sampled
Margin of Error = the range of percentage points in which the sample accurately reflects the population
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Measuring Public Opinion• Intensity
– A measure of how strongly an individual holds a particular opinion
• Latency– Political opinions that are held but not yet expressed
• Salience – An individual’s belief that an issue is important or
relevant to him or her
• Manifest Opinion– A widely shared and consciously held view
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Measuring Public Opinion• Problems with Polls
–Sampling Error–Polling Questions–Push Polls
• “Political Telemarketing”• to push away from a candidate
–Telephone Polling Problems• Over ¼ have no landline• People unresponsive
– Internet Polling–Quota Sampling
Selection bias and non-response bias
Quota Sampling
http://www.math.upenn.edu/~deturck/m170/wk4/lecture/case2.html
http://www.math.upenn.edu/~deturck/m170/wk4/lecture/case1.html
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Measuring Public Opinion• Public Opinion Polls
– A snapshot of the opinions and preferences of the people at a specific moment in time and as expressed in response to a specific question
• An event can change this view suddenly– May reveal a latent position
– Sampling error• The difference between a sample’s results and the true result
if the entire population has been interviewed – due to sample not being chosen scientifically
– As elections near pollsters often change from eligible voters to likely voters
• Can cause a dramatic change
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Measuring Public OpinionUsing scientific methods modern polls have a high probability of being correct using small sample sizes (often about 1500)
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Measuring Public Opinion• Poll Questions can be influenced by:
– Type of question• Yes/No questions
– Sometimes difficult to indicate true position
– Influence of words/phrases• Ex. “…fighting terrorism”, “…helping children”
– Order questions are asked– Interaction with interviewer
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Measuring Public Opinion
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Measuring Public Opinion
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Public Opinion and the Political Process
• Politicians – Source of power when dealing with other
politicians– Helps shape campaigns around issues
identified as most important
• Voters– Use to determine who to vote for, esp. in
primaries
• Contributors – Who is viable
“What I want, is to get done what the people desire to be done, and the question for me is how to find that out exactly.”
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Public Opinion and the Political Process
Latent
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Political Ideology and Attitudes Toward Government
• Political Ideology
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Political Ideology and Attitudes Toward Government
• Liberalism
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Political Ideology and Attitudes Toward Government
• Liberalism
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Political Ideology and Attitudes Toward Government
• Liberalism
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Political Ideology and Attitudes Toward Government
• Conservatism
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Political Ideology and Attitudes Toward Government
• Traditional Conservatives
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Political Ideology and Attitudes Toward Government
• Social Conservatives (New Right)
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Political Ideology and Attitudes Toward Government
• Conservatism