measuring cohort change in south dakota counties eric guthrie 2014 applied demography conference san...

Measuring Cohort Change in South Dakota

Counties

Eric Guthrie2014 Applied Demography Conference

San Antonio, Texas

Rural Decline, the usual story…

Rural Decline and Urbanization

• The best and the most promising students go off to college or leave to pursue other interests, or join the military, and seldom return.

• The plague of rural poverty and drug abuse has taken its toll on some of the most rural areas.

Rural Population Rebound

• The other story you may have heard is that of rural resurgence.

• Vibrant communities and areas that are attracting people to a high quality way of life where there is a sense of community.

• Population rebounds of the 1970s and 1990s.

Research Question

Is there a generational difference in the migration patterns in rural South Dakota?

South Dakota Population Over Time

South Dakota’s Rural/Urban Mix

Beale Code Descriptions

Metropolitan CountiesCode Description1 Counties in metro areas of 1 million population or more2 Counties in metro areas of 250,000 to 1 million population3* Counties in metro areas of fewer than 250,000 population

Nonmetropolitan Counties4 Urban population of 20,000 or more, adjacent to a metro area5* Urban population of 20,000 or more, not adjacent to a metro area6* Urban population of 2,500 to 19,999, adjacent to a metro area7* Urban population of 2,500 to 19,999, not adjacent to a metro area8* Completely rural or less than 2,500 urban population, adjacent to a metro area9* Completely rural or less than 2,500 urban population, not adjacent to a metro area

South Dakota’s Rural/Urban Mix

South Dakota Population by Beale Code

Average Population by Beale Code

How am I defining the generations

Generation

Born Age in 2010 Census

Common Generation Name

1930 Between 1920 and 1930

80-90 Good Warriors

1940 Between 1930 and 1940

70-80 Lucky Few

1950 Between 1940 and 1950

60-70 Lucky Few/Baby Boomers

1960 Between 1950 and 1960

50-60 Baby Boomers

1970 Between 1960 and 1970

40-50 Baby Boomers/Gen X

1980 Between 1970 and 1980

30-40 Gen X

Building the Generations

• I used the data from the 9 decennial censuses that have occurred since 1930.

• I made tables that put the generations together such that the population for one cohort was matched with the cohort ten years older in the following census.

• I did this for each of South Dakota’s 66 counties.

Building the Generations

For example the 1930 generation was built my using the populations from the following cohorts: Census Age Cohorts

Used

1930 0-9

1940 10-19

1950 20-29

1960 30-39

1970 40-49

1980 50-59

1990 60-69

2000 70-79

2010 80-89

Calculating the Rates of Change

• Fairly straight forward calculation for all of the cohorts for all of the counties in South Dakota first by sex then in total.

P(X+10)-PX

______________

PX

Results

Is there a difference between the cohort change patterns for people currently between 30 & 40 (generation 1980) and 40 & 50 (generation 1970) and generations 1930 through 1960 in rural South Dakota?

Counties with significant positive differences between older and

younger GenerationsCounty Sig.BealeAurora .001 9Beadle .041 7Brule .046 9Butte .039 6Campbell* .017 9Clark .016 9Deuel .019 9Douglas .008 9Edmunds .032 9

County Sig.BealeFaulk .049 9Gregory .006 9Hamlin .006 9Hanson .002 8Harding .030 9Hutchinson .033 8Jerauld .023 9Kingsbury .026 9Lincoln .001 3

County Sig.BealeMarshall .024 9McCook .002 3McPherson .048 9Mellette .000 9Turner .036 3Union .007 3Walworth* .031 7Ziebach .007 8

Results by Beale Code

Beale CodeNumber of

Significant Results9 168 37 26 15 03 4

The results for the cohort in their 40s was less significant,

but there are some. County Sig. BealeBeadle .000 7Bon Homme† .050 9Brown .003 5Brule .045 9Grant .006 7Lincoln .038 3Marshall .049 9Perkins .042 8Spink .003 9

Beale CodeNumber of

Significant Results9 48 17 26 05 13 1

Some of the most significant results

• Harding County

Some of the most significant results

• Butte County

Thank youI could go on for quite a while, but that is all I have time for today.

Thank you very much for the opportunity to present my research to you today.

Are there any questions?

General References

Carr, P. J., & Kefalas, M. (2009). Hollowing out the middle : the rural brain drain and what it means for America. Boston, Mass.: Beacon Press

Economic Research Service. (2013) 2013 Rural-Urban Continuum Codes. United States Department of Agriculture. Accessed on October 25, 2013. Retrieved from http://www.ers.usda.gov/data-products/rural-urban-continuum-codes.aspx.

Johnson, K. M., & Fuguitt, G. V. (2000). Continuity and Change in Rural Migration Patterns, 1950-1995. Rural Sociology, 65(1), 27-49.

Michael McCurry, E. G., et al. (Forthcoming). Population Projections for South Dakota and its Counties.

Reding, N. (2009). Methland : the death and life of an American small town (1st U.S. ed.). New York: Bloomsbury.

Winchester, B. (2012). Continuing the Trend: The Brain Gain of the Newcomers. In M. V. Joyce Hoelting (Ed.), (pp. 23). Minnesota: Extension Center for Community Vitality.

Census ReferencesUS Census Bureau. (1930/2011). Census of Population and Housing. Minneapolis, MN:

Minnesota Population Center Retrieved from http://www.nhgis.org.US Census Bureau. (1940/2011). Census of Population and Housing. Minneapolis, MN:





Minnesota Population Center Retrieved from http://www.nhgis.org.US Census Bureau. (2000). Census of Population and Housing. Retrieved from

http://factfinder2.census.gov/faces/tableservices/jsf/pages/productview.xhtml?pid=DEC_00_SF1_QTP1&prodType=table.

US Census Bureau. (2010). Census of Population and Housing. Retrieved from http://factfinder2.census.gov/faces/tableservices/jsf/pages/productview.xhtml?pid=DEC_10_SF1_QTP1&prodType=table.

measuring cohort change in south dakota counties eric guthrie 2014 applied demography conference san...

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