measuring a nation’s income and prices gross domestic …problems in measuring the cost of living...

5-1Measuring a Nation’s Income and Prices

Gross Domestic Product

Measuring a Nation’s Income

• Macroeconomics answers questions like the following:• Why is average income high in some countries and low in others?

• Why do prices rise rapidly in some time periods while they are more stable in others?

• Why do production and employment expand in some years and contract in others?

THE ECONOMY’S INCOME AND EXPENDITURE• When judging whether the economy is doing well or

poorly, it is natural to look at the total income that everyone in the economy is earning.

THE ECONOMY’S INCOME AND EXPENDITURE• For an economy as a whole, income must equal

expenditure because:• Every transaction has a buyer and a seller.

• Every dollar of spending by some buyer is a dollar of income for some seller.

THE MEASUREMENT OF GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT• Gross domestic product (GDP) is a measure of the

income and expenditures of an economy.

• It is the total market value of all final goods and services produced within a country in a given period of time.

THE MEASUREMENT OF GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT• The equality of income and expenditure can be illustrated

with the circular-flow diagram.

Figure 1 The Circular-Flow Diagram

Spending

Goods and

services

bought

Revenue

Goods

and services

sold

Labor, land,

and capital

Income

= Flow of inputs

and outputs

= Flow of dollars

Factors of

production

Wages, rent,

and profit

FIRMS

•Produce and sell

goods and services

•Hire and use factors

of production

•Buy and consume

goods and services

•Own and sell factors

of production

HOUSEHOLDS

•Households sell

•Firms buy

MARKETS

FOR

FACTORS OF PRODUCTION

•Firms sell

•Households buy

MARKETS

FOR

GOODS AND SERVICES

Copyright © 2004 South-Western

THE MEASUREMENT OF GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT• GDP is the market value of all final goods and services

produced within a country in a given period of time.

THE MEASUREMENT OF GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT• “GDP is the Market Value . . .”

• Output is valued at market prices.

• “. . . Of All Final . . .”• It records only the value of final goods, not intermediate goods (the

value is counted only once).

• “. . . Goods and Services . . . “• It includes both tangible goods (food, clothing, cars) and intangible

services (haircuts, housecleaning, doctor visits).

THE MEASUREMENT OF GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT• “. . . Produced . . .”

• It includes goods and services currently produced, not transactions involving goods produced in the past.

• “ . . . Within a Country . . .”

• It measures the value of production within the geographic confines of a country.

THE MEASUREMENT OF GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT• “. . . In a Given Period of Time.”

• It measures the value of production that takes place within a specific interval of time, usually a year or a quarter (three months).

THE COMPONENTS OF GDP

• GDP includes all items produced in the economy and sold legally in markets.


• What Is Not Counted in GDP?• GDP excludes most items that are produced and consumed at

home and that never enter the marketplace.

• It excludes items produced and sold illicitly, such as illegal drugs.


• GDP (Y) is the sum of the following:• Consumption (C)

• Investment (I)

• Government Purchases (G)

• Net Exports (NX)

Y = C + I + G + NX


• Consumption (C):• The spending by households on goods and services, with the

exception of purchases of new housing.

• Investment (I):

• The spending on capital equipment, inventories, and structures, including new housing.


• Government Purchases (G):• The spending on goods and services by local, state, and federal

governments.

• Does not include transfer payments because they are not made in exchange for currently produced goods or services.

• Net Exports (NX):

• Exports minus imports.

Table 1 GDP and Its Components

Copyright©2004 South-Western

GDP and Its Components (2001)

Consumption

69%

Government Purchases

18%Net Exports

-3 %Investment

16%

REAL VERSUS NOMINAL GDP

• Nominal GDP values the production of goods and services at current prices.

• Real GDP values the production of goods and services at constant prices.

REAL VERSUS NOMINAL GDP

• An accurate view of the economy requires adjusting nominal to real GDP by using the GDP deflator.

Table 2 Real and Nominal GDP


The GDP Deflator

• The GDP deflator is a measure of the price level calculated as the ratio of nominal GDP to real GDP times 100.

• It tells us the rise in nominal GDP that is attributable to a rise in prices rather than a rise in the quantities produced.

The GDP Deflator

• The GDP deflator is calculated as follows:

GDP deflator =Nominal GDP

Real GDP×100

The GDP Deflator

• Converting Nominal GDP to Real GDP• Nominal GDP is converted to real GDP as follows:

Real GDPNominal GDP

GDP deflator20XX

20XX

20XX

= ×100

Table 2 Real and Nominal GDP


Figure 2 Real GDP in the United States

Billions of

1996 Dollars

$10,000

9,000

8,000

7,000

6,000

5,000

4,000

3,0001970 1975 1980 1985 1990 20001995

Copyright © 2004 South-Western

GDP AND ECONOMIC WELL-BEING

• GDP is the best single measure of the economic well-being of a society.

• GDP per person tells us the income and expenditure of the average person in the economy.

GDP AND ECONOMIC WELL-BEING

• Higher GDP per person indicates a higher standard of living.

• GDP is not a perfect measure of the happiness or quality of life, however.

GDP AND ECONOMIC WELL-BEING• Some things that contribute to well-being are not included

in GDP.• The value of leisure.

• The value of a clean environment.

• The value of almost all activity that takes place outside of markets, such as the value of the time parents spend with their children and the value of volunteer work.

Table 3 GDP, Life Expectancy, and Literacy


Summary

• Because every transaction has a buyer and a seller, the total expenditure in the economy must equal the total income in the economy.

• Gross Domestic Product (GDP) measures an economy’s total expenditure on newly produced goods and services and the total income earned from the production of these goods and services.

Summary

• GDP is the market value of all final goods and services produced within a country in a given period of time.

• GDP is divided among four components of expenditure: consumption, investment, government purchases, and net exports.

Summary

• Nominal GDP uses current prices to value the economy’s production. Real GDP uses constant base-year prices to value the economy’s production of goods and services.

• The GDP deflator—calculated from the ratio of nominal to real GDP—measures the level of prices in the economy.

Summary

• GDP is a good measure of economic well-being because people prefer higher to lower incomes.

• It is not a perfect measure of well-being because some things, such as leisure time and a clean environment, aren’t measured by GDP.

5-2Measuring a Nation’s Income and Prices

The Consumer Price Index

Measuring the Cost of Living

• Inflation refers to a situation in which the economy’s overall price level is rising.

• The inflation rate is the percentage change in the price level from the previous period.

THE CONSUMER PRICE INDEX

• The consumer price index (CPI) is a measure of the overall cost of the goods and services bought by a typical consumer.

• The Bureau of Labor Statistics reports the CPI each month.

• It is used to monitor changes in the cost of living over time.

THE CONSUMER PRICE INDEX

• When the CPI rises, the typical family has to spend more dollars to maintain the same standard of living.

How the Consumer Price Index Is Calculated

• Fix the Basket: Determine what prices are most important to the typical consumer.• The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) identifies a market basket of

goods and services the typical consumer buys.

• The BLS conducts monthly consumer surveys to set the weights for the prices of those goods and services.


• Find the Prices: Find the prices of each of the goods and services in the basket for each point in time.


• Compute the Basket’s Cost: Use the data on prices to calculate the cost of the basket of goods and services at different times.


• Choose a Base Year and Compute the Index:

• Designate one year as the base year, making it the benchmark against which other years are compared.

• Compute the index by dividing the price of the basket in one year by the price in the base year and multiplying by 100.


• Compute the inflation rate: The inflation rate is the percentage change in the price index from the preceding period.


• The Inflation Rate• The inflation rate is calculated as follows:

Inflation Rate in Year 2 =CPI in Year 2 - CPI in Year 1

CPI in Year 1×100

Table 1 Calculating the Consumer Price Index and the Inflation Rate: An Example



• Calculating the Consumer Price Index and the Inflation Rate: Another Example• Base Year is 2002.

• Basket of goods in 2002 costs $1,200.

• The same basket in 2004 costs $1,236.

• CPI = ($1,236/$1,200) × 100 = 103.

• Prices increased 3 percent between 2002 and 2004.

FYI: What’s in the CPI’s Basket?

16%Food andbeverages

17%Transportation

Medical care

6%

Recreation

6%

Apparel

4%

Other goodsand services

4%

41%Housing

6%Education and communication


Problems in Measuring the Cost of Living

• The CPI is an accurate measure of the selected goods that make up the typical bundle, but it is not a perfect measure of the cost of living.


• Substitution bias

• Introduction of new goods

• Unmeasured quality changes


• Substitution Bias• The basket does not change to reflect consumer reaction to

changes in relative prices.

• Consumers substitute toward goods that have become relatively less expensive.

• The index overstates the increase in cost of living by not considering consumer substitution.


• Introduction of New Goods• The basket does not reflect the change in purchasing power

brought on by the introduction of new products.

• New products result in greater variety, which in turn makes each dollar more valuable.

• Consumers need fewer dollars to maintain any given standard of living.


• Unmeasured Quality Changes• If the quality of a good rises from one year to the next, the value of

a dollar rises, even if the price of the good stays the same.

• If the quality of a good falls from one year to the next, the value of a dollar falls, even if the price of the good stays the same.

• The BLS tries to adjust the price for constant quality, but such differences are hard to measure.


• The substitution bias, introduction of new goods, and unmeasured quality changes cause the CPI to overstate the true cost of living.• The issue is important because many government programs use

the CPI to adjust for changes in the overall level of prices.

• The CPI overstates inflation by about 1 percentage point per year.

The GDP Deflator versus the Consumer Price Index

• The GDP deflator is calculated as follows:

GDP deflator =Nominal GDP

Real GDP×100


• The BLS calculates other prices indexes: • The index for different regions within the country.

• The producer price index, which measures the cost of a basket of goods and services bought by firms rather than consumers.


• Economists and policymakers monitor both the GDP deflator and the consumer price index to gauge how quickly prices are rising.

• There are two important differences between the indexes that can cause them to diverge.


• The GDP deflator reflects the prices of all goods and services produced domestically, whereas...

• …the consumer price index reflects the prices of all goods and services bought by consumers.


• The consumer price index compares the price of a fixed

basket of goods and services to the price of the basket in the base year (only occasionally does the BLS change the basket)...

• …whereas the GDP deflator compares the price of currently produced goods and services to the price of the same goods and services in the base year.

Figure 2 Two Measures of Inflation

1965

Percent

per Year

15

CPI

GDP deflator

10

5

01970 1975 1980 1985 1990 20001995


CORRECTING ECONOMIC VARIABLES FOR THE EFFECTS OF INFLATION

• Price indexes are used to correct for the effects of inflation when comparing dollar figures from different times.

Dollar Figures from Different Times

• Do the following to convert (inflate) Babe Ruth’s wages in 1931 to dollars in 2001:

Salary SalaryPrice level in 2001

Price level in 19312001 1931= ×

= ×

=

$80,.

$931,

000177

152

579

Table 2 The Most Popular Movies of All Times, Inflation Adjusted


Indexation

• When some dollar amount is automatically corrected for inflation by law or contract, the amount is said to be indexed for inflation.

Real and Nominal Interest Rates

• Interest represents a payment in the future for a transfer of money in the past.


• The nominal interest rate is the interest rate usually reported and not corrected for inflation. • It is the interest rate that a bank pays.

• The real interest rate is the nominal interest rate that is corrected for the effects of inflation.


• You borrowed $1,000 for one year.

• Nominal interest rate was 15%.

• During the year inflation was 10%.

Real interest rate = Nominal interest rate – Inflation

= 15% - 10% = 5%

Figure 3 Real and Nominal Interest Rates

1965

Interest Rates

(percent

per year)

15

Real interest rate

10

5

0

–51970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000

Nominal interest rate


Summary

• The consumer price index shows the cost of a basket of goods and services relative to the cost of the same basket in the base year.

• The index is used to measure the overall level of prices in the economy.

• The percentage change in the CPI measures the inflation rate.

Summary

• The consumer price index is an imperfect measure of the cost of living for the following three reasons: substitution bias, the introduction of new goods, and unmeasured changes in quality.

• Because of measurement problems, the CPI overstates annual inflation by about 1 percentage point.

Summary

• The GDP deflator differs from the CPI because it includes goods and services produced rather than goods and services consumed.

• In addition, the CPI uses a fixed basket of goods, while the GDP deflator automatically changes the group of goods and services over time as the composition of GDP changes.

Summary

• Dollar figures from different points in time do not represent a valid comparison of purchasing power.

• Various laws and private contracts use price indexes to correct for the effects of inflation.

• The real interest rate equals the nominal interest rate minus the rate of inflation.

measuring a nation’s income and prices gross domestic …problems in measuring the cost of living...

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