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MDMP-M Step 3: Course of Action Analysis & Gaming

March 2016

Multinational Planning Augmentation Team Mobile Training Team (MPAT MTT)

Reference: MNF SOP Version 3.0

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• Define Course of Action (COA) Analysis • Discuss COA Analysis as part of the Crisis Action

Planning (CAP) Process – Enumerate associated task steps – Identify products resulting from COA analysis

• Reference ￚ Multinational Force Standing Operating Procedures (MNF

SOP)

Purpose

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MDMP-M Steps

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• The purpose of COA analysis is to improve the proposed plan

• It consists of evaluating each proposed friendly COA against: – The Commander’s Guidance & Intent – Threat capabilities & potential actions/reactions of

the enemy’s most likely & most dangerous COAs • It serves to help obtain ideas & insights into

each COA • It serves to identify advantages &

disadvantages of each COA

COA Analysis

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COA Analysis/War Gaming Conditions

• Starting Conditions – MNF Commander has approved/refined Operational

Design – Commander has approved proposed COAs for further

development • Ending Conditions

ￚ Separate gaming for each COA has been recorded ￚ MNF comparison criteria for next stage is established ￚ Staff has a better understanding of the various methods

and means by which the mission may be accomplished

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COA Analysis Steps

1. Organize 2. Gather Tools 3. Conduct Analysis 4. Gaming

• Prepare • Conduct • Output

5. Record / Display Results 6. Identify Advantages and Disadvantages 7. Prepare for Comparison

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Step One: Organize

• Coalition Planning Group (CPG) organizes for gaming

• Intelligence Directorate (C2) establishes a red cell that, from the adversary point of view:

– Pursues threat elements – Presents threat elements

• Selected staff estimates requested based on situation

Right people, right resources

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• Commander’s Guidance • Friendly COAs • Most probable & most dangerous enemy COAs • Combined operations area reference • Representation of friendly force distribution and probable

threats • Representation of environmental/civil conditions • Synchronization Matrix • Action-Reaction/Threat Consequence - Counteraction

Matrix • Identify, list, and review existing limitations • Staff Estimates

Step Two: Gather the Tools

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Step Three: Conduct Analysis

• The CPG works through each friendly COA with a view to revealing the following: – Lines of Operation, Decisive Points (DPs), Support Effects for each

DP – Commander’s Decision Points – Capability/task organization adjustments – Critical data for COA execution – High value actions – Deployment, sustainment and IO insights – Time estimate to reach mission success / termination criteria – Ideas for maintaining MNF reserves – Risk Assessment – Branch / Sequel possibilities – Advantages & Disadvantages – Revised CCIRs – Operational Design element revisions

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Step Four: Gaming

• Gaming itself is an extension of the analysis • The goal is to provide the Commander, National

Command Elements from MNF nations, MNF Component Commanders, and MNF staff an in-depth analysis of each proposed COA

• It is an attempt to visualize the flow of the operation using a series of critical events as milestones ￚ Specified or implied tasks required for mission

success ￚ Assessed using an action – reaction – counteraction

matrix

Level of detail of gaming is subject to time constraints

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• Participants gather – CPG planners & MNF Component Commander’s

planner representatives – Red Cell – Staff members involved in each COA development – Gaming controller & recorders

• Gather tools (including friendly forces and threat elements) • List critical events • Determine threat COA to oppose • Select gaming method • Select recording method

Gaming One: Prepare

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Gaming One: Select Method

•Deliberate Timeline Analysis –Task force actions in time sequence

•Operational Phasing Framework –Functional Area/Component actions by operation phase

•Critical Event Analysis –Specific critical events that represent essence of each

COA –Measures of effectiveness may be incorporated

•Combination

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Gaming One: Worksheet & Matrix

29UNCLASSIFIED

SEQ-UENCENUMBER

ACTION REACTION/THREAT CONSE-QUENCES

COUNTER-ACTION

ASSETS TIME DECISIONPOINT

CCIR REMARKS

CRITICAL EVENT:

Example Analysis Worksheet

28UNCLASSIFIED

TIME CONTINUOUS OR SINGLE EVENT

PROBABLE THREATDECISION POINTSCRITICAL INFORMATION REQUIREMENTS

OPN MOVEMENT AND MANEUVEROPN FIREPOWEROPN PROTECTIONOPN INFORMATIONOPN INTELOPN SUPPORT

ARFOR/LAND COMPONENT/CFLCCMARFOR/LAND COMPONENT/CFLCCNAVFOR/MARITIME/CFMCCAFFOR/AIR COMPONENT/CFACCCSOTFOTHERS

FUNCTION

AREAS

COMPONENTS

D-DAY/H-HOUR

D + 1 D + 2

Example Synchronization Matrix

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• The war game process should identify gaps in a COA as well as visualize the flow of operations

• Recording results provides database for building or modifying COAs, task organization, synchronization, operational concepts, and follow-on detailed planning

• Critical Events –Specified of implied tasks required for mission success –Assessed using the Action-Reaction-Counteraction

matrix

Gaming Two: Game and Assess

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Gaming Two: Action/Reaction/Counteraction

ACTION

REACTION / CONSEQUENCE

COUNTERACTION

MNF provides medical care at IDP camps

IDP population at camps swells, increasing rates of disease.

Modify TPFDD to allow MNF to provide more shelter and prioritize medical care

Prepare to secure evacuation site at # 3

Rebels kidnap several evacuees in vicinity of site #3

Conduct evacuation at site #2

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• Governing Factors – Illuminate the planning elements (operational design,

problem framework, operational objectives, etc.) essential for mission success

– Provide a basis for COA refinement • Potential Decision Points • Potential Branches & Sequels • Refined COAs • Advantages & Disadvantages

Gaming Three: Output

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• Disseminating the war gaming results allows: ￚ Modification of task organization ￚ Adaptation of plans and orders ￚ Synchronization of activity

• Techniques – Narrative technique (sentence form, very detailed but

very time consuming) – Sketch and note technique (brief notes concerning

critical locations or tasks) – Synchronization matrix – Critical event

• Highlight advantages & disadvantages

Step Five: Record and Display Results

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Step Five: Synchronization Matrix

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Advantages Disadvantages

COA 1

- Rapid delivery - Meets critical needs Modifications 1. Assign national forces by sector 2. Lead nation provides robust communications through LNOs

- Rough integration of forces - Rough transition - Complex organization - Not flexible - Adequate force protection

Step Six: Advantages & Disadvantages

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• Deployment requirements • Synchronization requirements • Estimate of the duration of critical events as well as the operation

as a whole • Required support from outside of the MNF • Requirements for logistic support • Clear picture of command relationships • Branches and sequels • Areas of high interest for reconnaissance and surveillance • Identification of component tasks • Identify high value targets • Task organization requirements

Step Seven: Prepare for Comparison

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COA Analysis Steps

1. Organize 2. Gather Tools 3. Conduct Analysis 4. Gaming

1. Prepare 2. Conduct 3. Output

5. Record / Display Results 6. Identify Advantages and Disadvantages 7. Prepare for Comparison

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COA Analysis Summary

• Determine the effectiveness of each friendly COA on the most probable & most dangerous enemy COA or threat situation

• Conduct this analysis in an orderly fashion – By time phasing – Geographic location – Critical events – Consider the potential actions of subordinates two

echelons down

• Consider crisis termination issues End-state – Know where you are headed!

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MDMP-M Steps

Discussion