MCEER RESEARCH TASK STATEMENT

Thrust Area 1 Budget: Yr 8 Assigned

Project Number: 8.1.4 Task Title: Comprehensive Model for Integrated Electric Power and Water Supply Systems II Investigator/ * T.D. O’Rourke/ Institution: Cornell University * indicates task leader Statement of Project Goals: (Conceptually describe what the work is intended to accomplish, in 100 words or less. Do not provide detailed description here.) The project goals are to 1) develop a hydraulic network model for the Los Angeles water distribution system that allows for a comprehensive evaluation of its earthquake performance, 2) develop an integrated systems reliability model for the LADWP water and electric power networks that is approved and supported by LADWP management, and 3) use the results of 1) and 2) to create a decision support platform for critical lifelines that addresses seismic resilience in its technical, organizational, societal, and economic dimensions. The third project goal involves integrating research performed by MCEER social science and engineering researchers in the evaluation of earthquake damage effects on the regional economy and the ability of communities to perform emergency services and undertake restoration activities. Specifically, the project will use a state-of-the-art hydraulic network model of the LADWP water distribution network for earthquake reliability analysis and as a test bed for defining and evaluating community resilience, predicting regional economic impact, and developing restoration models to optimize emergency operations and system recovery. Problem Description and Research Approach of Proposed Work for Year 8: (Detailed description of research to be conducted and methodology to be used.) The overall goal of the proposed work is to develop and demonstrate the next generation of lifelines that benefits from advanced geospatial analyses; high performance materials and manufacturing; improved loss estimation; intelligent monitoring; and advanced systems and socioeconomic modeling to assess the regional impact of lifeline operations. The Los Angeles water and electric power distribution networks are the test beds within which advanced technologies and systems modeling are applied. The work proposed for Year 8 involves two major tasks associated with System Reliability Model and Decision Support Platform. The work proposed is described under the following headings: 1. System Reliability Model Work will continue from Year 7 on the development of the system reliability model, and will be completed by the end of Year 8. Specifically, the system reliability model will incorporate

procedures and methodologies developed by M. Shinozuka and MCEER coworkers for electric power, including presentation of results as Annual Probability of Exceedance vs. Households without Water. In addition, the water systems reliability will include fire protection. Coordination with LADWP and LA Fire Department representatives will be used to establish the appropriate reliability measures. Preliminary contacts with fire protection personnel have been made. The effects of electric power loss on water system reliability will be quantified. Electric power losses have their most important influence on pump stations and groundwater well systems, both of which will be examined by coordinated research and modeling with MCEER researchers working on the combined LADWP water and electric power systems. For example, Figure 1 shows the geographic restoration of electric power with respect to pump station location after the Northridge earthquake, that was developed in collaboration with LADWP in this project (see Progress to Date). This work and additional tasks in Years 7 & 8 will be needed to validate combined electric and water system simulations. The system reliability model will incorporate fragility curves and characterizations performed in collaboration with M. Grigoriu under the MCEER program, entitled System Risk and Reliability for Water Supply. The results of research to develop a seismic response model for jointed concrete cylinder and riveted steel trunk and transmission lines will be incorporated in the fragility analyses. This research has been successfully completed in Year 7. In addition, the results of large-scale experiments performed by MCEER during Years 3 – 6 on the response of welded slip joints and the effects of seismic strengthening with fiber-reinforced polymers (FRPs) will be integrated into the fragility characterization. 2. Decision Support Platform As stated previously, the hydraulic network model and reliability analyses will be a test bed for defining and evaluating community resilience, predicting regional economic impact, and developing restoration models to optimize emergency operations and system recovery. Regional economic models, based on computable general equilibrium (CGE) will refined and applied by A. Rose to earthquake disruption of water and electric power systems. The models will incorporate LADWP data on operating costs and sectoral sales as well as the behavioral response of lifeline customers disclosed through surveys administered in Year 7. The decision support system will also utilize community level performance criteria. S. Chang will develop a methodological approach for developing lifeline performance objectives with community input. A catalyst for defining performance objectives and applying regional economic models is a workshop at LADWP scheduled for May, 2004. The workshop will bring together LADWP managers for both water and electric power systems, MCEER social science and lifeline researchers, emergency responders, and members of the community to discuss and articulate performance objectives. This workshop will clarify and further define directions for Year 8.

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An improved model for post-earthquake restoration will be developed by R. Davidson and implemented for the LADWP water supply. Davidson will work with the PI and LADWP to model water system repair and recovery operations, quantify the uncertainty associated with these activities, and estimate the expected restoration time for the combined water and electric power networks under various earthquake scenarios. Work on the water supply will proceed in collaboration with similar work on the electric power system that is supervised by M. Shinozuka. The work will demonstrate that the combined systems can be evaluated within a framework of common seismic hazards and spatial variations of strong motion. Definitions of and procedures for evaluating systems risk and reliability will be developed that are consistent for both the water and electric power networks. The overarching goal of MCEER is to create earthquake resilient communities, and one of the most important programs of MCEER is focused on defining and quantifying this resilience. The research will support MCEER efforts to define and develop performance measures for resilience. The systems model for combined water and electric power will be used to explore and quantify the technical measures of resilience. Moreover, LADWP engineers and managers will be engaged to help define the organizational issues that affect their operations and influence their planning and allocation of resources for earthquake hazards. Assessment of State-of-the-Art: (Describe other relevant work being conducted within and outside of MCEER, and how this project is different.) Network modeling and reliability assessments for water supply and electric power systems have been subjects of research and development primarily in the U.S. and Japan. Research developments in lifeline systems performance and modeling have been summarized in two recent state-of-the-art reviews (O’Rourke, 1996; O’Rourke and Jeon, 2000). The principal investigator has been in communication with leading researchers in Japan and the U.S., including researchers at PEER and MAE. The proposed research differs from work currently being performed with respect to the comprehensive nature of the component and geotechnical modeling that will be performed, advanced loss estimation that will be incorporated, and socioeconomic modeling that will become an integral part of the product package. Specifically, the systems modeling and reliability assessments will build on the state-of-the-art MCEER accomplishments that have used Input / Output and Computable General Equilibrium models and analytical methods for spatially distributed systems to assess the indirect economic effects of damage caused by earthquakes (Chang et al., 2000a; Chang et al., 200b; and Shinozuka, et al., 1998). References Chang, S.E., A. Rose, M. Shinozuka, W.D. Svekla, and K.J. Tierney, “Modeling Earthquake Impact on Urban Lifeline Systems: Advanced and Integration”, Research Progress and Accomplishments: 1999-2000, Multidisciplinary Center for Earthquake Engineering Research, State University of New York at Buffalo, Buffalo, NY, 2000a. Chang, S.E., M. Shinozuka, and J.E. Moore II, “Probabilistic Earthquake Scenarios: Extending

Risk Methodologies to Spatially Distributed System”, Earthquake Spectra, Vol. 16, No. 3, Aug., 2000b, pp. 557-572. O’Rourke, T.D., “Lifeline Engineering: State-of-the-Art”, Eleventh World Conference on Earthquake Engineering, Paper No. 2172, ISBN No. 008-042822-3, Pergamon, Oxford, UK, 1996. O’Rourke, T.D. and S-S. Jeon “Seismic Zonation for Lifelines and Utilities” Invited Keynote Paper of Lifelines, Proceedins Sixth International Conference on Seismic Zonation, Palm Springs, CA, Nov., 2000, EERI CD ROM, 35p. Shinozuka, M., A. Rose, and R.T. Eguchi, Eds., “Engineering and Socioeconomic Impacts of Earthquakes”, Monograph Series 2, Multidisciplinary Center for Earthquake Engineering Research, State University of New York at Buffalo, Buffalo, NY, 1998. Progress to date: (If applicable, a short description of achievements in previous years. Clearly distinguish progress achieved in the past year, i.e., accomplishments from April 1, 2003, to March 31, 2004.) The progress for the period of April 1, 2003 to March 31, 2004 is as follows:

1. Successful development of hydraulic network model for LADWP to simulate a heavily damaged system. This required significant re-writing and modification of the code GISALLE++ by engineers at ABS, Inc. with no cost to MCEER and significant contributions of time and personnel at ABS.

2. Comprehensive case history of water system performance and restoration after the

Northridge earthquake, including SCADA measurements of pressures and flows at key locations. There is substantial involvement by LADWP upper management in this case history, which provides valuable information for restoration models being developed by R. Davidson and for calibration/validation of the hydraulic network model being developed in this project.

3. Completion of full scale soil-structure interaction tests at Cornell, jointly supported by

Tokyo Gas Co., Ltd. These tests establish p-y characterization for permanent ground deformation effects on buried lifelines for partially saturated soil. As illustrated in Figure 2, the tests results show lateral forces approximately 225% higher than those currently predicted on the basis of the dry soil experimental results that are typically used in practice. These findings have significant repercussions for design/construction in that they provide more realistic simulations consistent with the in situ moisture conditions affecting the great majority of buried lifelines.

4. Development of analytical models (and validation through case history comparisons) for

the seismic performance of jointed concrete cylinder and riveted steel pipelines used in water trunk and transmission lines. This work expands on previous MCEER research on welded steel trunk lines. The research results are being used in seismic modeling for the current rehabilitation of the San Francisco Water Supply and also for the American

Lifelines Alliance guidelines for seismic design of water pipelines currently under development. (See Figure 3).

5. Coordination of MCEER social science and engineering researchers with LADWP

management has been achieved. A meeting between LADWP water supply managers, emergency responders, and MCEER researchers (Chang, O’Rourke, Rose, Shinozuka) took place in July, 2003 followed by MCEER participation in the joint AWWARF/LADWP US-Japan Workshop in August, 2003 to determine best earthquake-related practices and research needs for water supply. These meetings have established strong ties with LADWP and multidisciplinary researchers at MCEER.

6. Systematic assessment of regional seismic hazard for LA water supply and electric

power performed by P. Somerville of URS and A. Papageorgiou of MCEER. P. Somerville is recognized for outstanding practical work in engineering seismology as well as his expertise with seismic hazards in the LA region. His work is supported directly by LADWP at no cost to MCEER.

Role of Proposed Task in Support of Strategic Plan: (Describe how the effort will make a unique, useable contribution to the MCEER strategic plan.) The proposed research will support the MCEER strategic plan by developing the next generation lifeline system, which is critical for earthquake resilient communities. Specifically, the research will develop a systems model that will promote a comprehensive assessment of earthquake risk. The model will quantify the reduction of damage, including direct and indirect losses, so that water authorities and the communities they serve will be able to make rational decisions about the allocation of resources necessary to achieve community goals in earthquake resilience. Task Integration: (Describe how the work performed interfaces with other tasks and researchers funded by MCEER.) The work performed interfaces directly with research performed by M. Grigoriu and R. Davidson under the tasks entitled Systems Risk and Reliability for Water Supply and Restoration Analysis for Lifelines, respectively. In addition, the task interfaces with research performed for electric power systems led by M. Shinozuka. Developing a model for the combined water and electric power systems is an integrating effort essential for evaluating the interdependencies between different lifeline systems. Moreover, the research will make direct use of models for the regional socioeconomic effects of lifeline losses that have been developed and tested by MCEER in the Memphis area. As explained under Project Description and Research Approach above, the work in this project is integrated with the research on loss models and performance objectives by S. Chang and the research on regional economic impacts by A. Rose. Possible Technical Challenges: The technical and institutional challenges include:

1. Development of a fully operational hydraulic network model that covers accurately a variety of damage states, and the validation thereof by comparison with prior earthquake performance and special flow tests.

2. Development of reliability assessments consistent for both water and electric power and

compatible with reliability procedures and resilience definitions that apply to hospitals. 3. Obtaining the appropriate security clearances and cooperation of LADWP management

and engineering to ensure detailed characterization of the water supply system. 4. Obtaining the appropriate security clearances and cooperation of LADWP management

and engineering to develop an accurate model for combined water and electric power. 5. Creation of systems models and decision support tools that are sufficiently transparent

and accessible to communities for effective planning and engagement of support from both the public and private sectors.

Anticipated Outcomes and deliverables: (Also indicate those of particular benefit to IAB members and other end users.) - Successful demonstration of FRP

strengthening of critical water trunk lines in Los Angeles and adoption of the technology in other systems, such as EBMUD.

- Advanced analytical models for pipeline

and facilities behavior under earthquake loads.

- Improved fabrication and welding

procedures for slip joints and alternate reinforcement procedures.

- Advanced hydraulic network model for

LADWP. - Combined systems model for the Los

Angeles water and electric power networks.

- Decision support tools for lifeline system

improvements and operations that incorporate estimates of regional socioeconomic impacts.

Potential end-users beyond academic community: (IAB members and others.)

- Water distribution companies, such as LADWP and EBMUD.

- Engineering design and consulting

companies. - Electric power and gas distribution

companies.

- City and regional planners.

- Emergency response agencies.

Educational outcomes and deliverables, and intended audience: The educational outcomes include: - Guidance on material properties of FRP products and specifications for construction.

- Improved specifications and design procedures for water trunk lines. - Systems model for earthquake effects on water distribution systems suitable for management

decisions about operations and the implementation of advanced technologies to reduce earthquake losses.

- Use of the project to support graduate students and undergraduate research experiences. Project Schedule and Expected Milestones for the Project: (Milestones and estimated time of achievement; e.g. Fall, Spring, Summer.) Spring 05: Final integration of fragility curves, soil-structure interaction models, and advanced loss estimation procedures in collaboration with M. Grigoriu. Spring/Fall 05: Final integration of resiliency models, regional economic impact assessment, and lifeline restoration models by S. Chang, A. Rose, and R. Davidson, respectively. Fall 05: Decision support system for combined water and power fully operational with trials runs recommended by LADWP engineers and managers. Team Members: (If known, provide names of team members associated with project including project leader, other faculty and their departments, undergraduate students, graduate students, postdoctoral students, industrial participants.) T.D. O’Rourke, Principal Investigator A. Lembo Jr., Senior Research Associate Y. Wang, Graduate Research Assistant (GRA) P. Shi, GRA Los Angeles Department of Water and Power Los Angles Department of Emergency Services Los Angles Fire Department Tokyo Gas Co., Ltd. ABS, Inc. URS, Inc. Undergraduate students will be engaged to assist with the hydraulic network modeling and analysis. Possible Direction of Work in Subsequent Years: In subsequent years, a combined water and electric power systems model will be developed that is capable of assessing both direct and indirect economic losses and of discerning the social impact of lifeline losses on the communities they serve. Decision support tools will be developed and demonstrated that will allow lifeline managers and engineers to create earthquake resilient systems consistent with community goals and resources.