mbs2015-3c sw fall2014 · the following year). occasionally, this report makes use of census year...

SOUTHWEST

REGIONAL POPULATION AND DEMOGRAPHIC PROJECTIONS

2013 TO 2038

M A N I T O B A

B U R E A U O F S T A T I S T I C S

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MBS 2015 - 3C PRICE: $15 AUGUST 2015MBS 2015 - 3C

TABLE OF CONTENTS

Page

Executive Summary............................................................................................ 3

Economic Region Boundary Map ..................................................................... 4

Introduction ......................................................................................................... 5

Notes to Users .................................................................................................... 6

Highlights ............................................................................................................ 7

AppendicesA. Methodology .............................................................................................. 9B. Base Population Adjustment ...................................................................... 15C. Regional Results ........................................................................................ 17D. Glossary ..................................................................................................... 37

Southwest - Regional Population and Demographic Projections: 2013 - 2038

_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________Manitoba Bureau of Statistics August 2015

_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________



_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

• Population: o The Manitoba Bureau of Statistics (MBS) projects Southwest's population will reach

120,400 residents on July 1, 2020. o Compared to MBS' estimate of 111,800 residents for July 1, 2013, Southwest's

population is expected to increase by 8,600 individuals (7.7%) by July 1, 2020.

• Age Structure: o MBS projects that on July 1, 2020, half of Southwest's population will be older than 38.5

years, while the other half will be younger. o Children aged 14 or under are expected to comprise 19.0% of Southwest's July 1, 2020

population. Individuals aged 15 to 64 are projected to account for 62.7% of Southwest's residents, while the remaining 18.3% are predicted to be aged 65 or over.

• Assumption Overview: o MBS assumes regional fertility will be constant and there will be moderate increases in

life expectancy at birth. MBS assumes migration flows, with the exception of intraprovincial migration, will be constant from 2020 onward.

Component By 2015 By 2020

Total Fertility Rate 1.98 1.98Life Expectancy - Male 78.0 78.8Life Expectancy - Female 82.4 82.7Intraprovincial In^ 3,200 2,870Intraprovincial Out^ 2,980 2,780Net Intraprovincial 210 80Interprovincial In 1,190 1,020Interprovincial Out 1,720 1,400Net Interprovincial -530 -380Immigration 980 1,220 Emigration 80 90 Net International 890 1,130Other International* 180 110Total Net Migration† 750 940 ^Intraprovincial migration is not constant, but follows a natural log trend from 2020 onward. *Other International Migration is net non-permanent residents, plus returning emigrants, less net temporary emigrants. †Total Net Migration is the sum of Net Intraprovincial, Net Interprovincial, Net International and Other International Migration.

Data Source: Manitoba Bureau of Statistics



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Mafeking

Grand Rapids

Gypsumville

Lundar

Eriksdale

Ashern

Moosehorn

AlonsaMcCreary

Glenella

Fisher Branch

Arborg

Riverton

Hodgson

Berens River

Bloodvein

Powerview-Pine Falls

St Georges

Great Falls

Lac duBonnet

Sprague

Rennie

Bissett

Brandon

PortagePrairiela

WINNIPEG

Roblin

Russell

BinscarthAngusville

Rossburn

Inglis

Grandview

GilbertPlains

OchreRiver

Ste. Rosedu Lac

Virden

Reston

Oak Lake

Alexander

RiversKenton

Oak RiverMiniota

Strathclair Newdale

ShoalLake

McAuley

St-Lazare

Elkhorn

Birtle

Foxwarren

Melita

PiersonWaskada

Napinka

Boissevain

Minto

HartneyTilson

Swan RiverMinitonas

Bowsman

The Pas

Dauphin

EthelbertFork River

Rorketon

Souris

DeloraineKillarney

Nesbitt

Wawanesa

Belmont

Cartwright

Holland

Notre Dame

TreherneSt Claude

Elm Creek

Roland

Somerset

Pilot Mound

Crystal City

WinklerManitou

Miami

Dunrea

Neepawa

Arden

ForestStation

Minnedosa

Rapid City

Morden

PlumCoulee

Altona

Gretna

Carman

Emerson

Morris

St. Pierre-Jolys

Letellier Dominion City Vita

LaBroquerie

Oakbank

Dugald

Stonewall

Rosser

Teulon

Inwood

Woodlands

BirdsHill

Hadashville

Niverville

St.Adolphe

Lorette

Ste. Anne

White-mouth

Ellie

St. Laurent

Starbuck

Sanford

Gimli

SelkirkEast

Selkirk

Steinbach

Beausejour

Lake

Cedar

Winnipegosis

Lake

Lake

Manitoba

Winnipeg

Lake

Dauphin

Lake

Winnipegosis

Hamiota

Erickson

Glenboro

Carberry

Gladstone

MacGregor

Langruth

Assiniboine

River

Red

Riv

er

Cartography by: Manitoba Conservation

GeoManitoba MAN 2438

EDWARD

PIPESTONE

ARCHIE

ELLICE

RUSSELL

SHELLMOUTH-BOULTON

RIVER

SHELL

RIVER

SWAN

HILLS-BURG

SILVER

CREEK

WALLACE

ALBERT

ARTHUR

MINIOTA

BIRTLE

MINITONAS

GRANDVIEW

ROSSBURN

SHOALLAKE

HAMIOTA

WOODWORTH

SIFTON

CAMERON

BRENDA

WIN-CHESTER

BLAN-SHARD

ETHELBERT

GILBERTPLAINS

STRATH-CLAIR

DALY

WHITEHEAD

GLENWOOD

WHITEWATER

MORTON

SASKAT-CHEWAN

HARRISON

DAUPHIN

MOSSEY RIVER

WILLIAM

ODANAH

ELTON

OAKLAND

CORNWALLIS

RIVER-SIDE

KILLARNEY-TURTLE

MOUNTAIN

STRATH-CONA

MINTO

CLAN-

RIVER

OCHRE

LAWERENCE

STE.ROSE

McCREARY

ROSE-DALE

LANGFORD

NORTH CYPRESS

SOUTH CYPRESS

ROBLIN

ARGYLE

Baldur

LANS-DOWNE

GLENELLA

VICTORIA

LOUISE

NORTH NORFOLK

WESTBOURNE

LAKEVIEW

SOUTHNORFOLK

LORNE

PEMBINA

PORTAGE La PRAIRIE

SIGLUNES

ERIKSDALE

THOMPSON

STANLEY

DUFFERIN

GREY

COLDWELL

ST.

LAURENT

WOODLANDS

ST. FRANCOIS

ROLAND

RHINELAND

CARTIER

XAVIER

ROSSER

MACDONALD

MORRIS

MONT-CALM

ROCKWOOD

BIFROST

GIMLI

ST

ANDREWS

E. ST.

PAUL

HE

AD

ING

LE

Y

W. ST.

PAUL

RIT-CHOT

DE SALA-

BERRY

FRANKLIN

HANOVER

SPRINGFIELD

CLEMENTS

BROKEN-

HEAD

TACHE

LA BRO-

QUERIE

STE. ANNE

ST

LAC DU BONNET

WHITE-MOUTH

STUARTBURN

REYNOLDS

PINEY

MOUNTAIN

MOUNTAIN

PARK

ALONSA

GRAHAMDALE

GRAHAM-

DALE

FISHER

ARMSTRONG

ALEXANDER

KELSEY

KELSEY

PINAWA

� Manitoba Bureau of Statistics

OFFICIAL REGIONS

FOR DATA COLLECTION

INTERLAKE

NORTH

SOUTHWEST

PARKLANDS

SOUTH CENTRAL

NORTH CENTRAL

SOUTHEAST



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INTRODUCTION

The Manitoba Bureau of Statistics (MBS) has used its Regional Cohort Component Model to develop this projection for Manitoba and its Economic Regions. MBS derived the base population by incorporating an adjustment for statistical anomalies in Statistics Canada's net undercoverage results. This added 16,154 individuals to Statistics Canada's estimate of Manitoba's July 2013 population (see Appendix B).

This report focuses on the Southwest region, expanding on projection data published in Manitoba's Regions - Population and Demographic Projections 2013 to 2038 (MBS 2015-3).The data in this report results from the same set of assumptions as the Medium projection scenario published in MBS' Manitoba Population and Demographic Projections 2013 to 2048 (MBS 2014-3).

This report analyzes how regional population and various components of growth are projected to change over the next 25 years, with an emphasis on the year 2020. The appendices provide additional information on the regional results, as well as the methodology used to create them. A glossary defining some of the terms used in this document is provided at the end of the publication.

The Economic Regions Manitoba is divided into eight Official Regions for Data Collection, also known as Economic Regions (see the map on page 4). The following table shows the association between Manitoba's Economic Regions and its Census Divisions.

ECONOMIC REGION CENSUS BASE POPULATION NAME CODE DIVISION 2013 DISTRIBUTION (%)

Southeast 10 1, 2, 12 110,100 8.59South Central 20 3, 4 64,400 5.02Southwest 30 5, 6, 7, 15 111,800 8.72North Central 40 8, 9, 10 50,200 3.92Winnipeg 50 11 717,100 55.95Interlake 60 13, 14, 18 92,900 7.25Parklands 70 16, 17, 20 41,300 3.22North 80 19, 21, 22, 23 93,700 7.31

Manitoba Total 1,281,600 100.00 Note: Population is for July 1 of given year. Numbers may not add to totals due to rounding.


Available for $15 each, MBS has prepared a report for each Economic Region providing in-depth projection results.

Further information can be obtained from the Manitoba Bureau of Statistics by contacting Tara Newton at 204-945-2406.



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NOTES TO USERS

Projections are not forecasts Projecting population growth and demographic change is not the same as forecasting. A forecast tells what the most likely future will be. A projection, however, attempts to establish plausible scenarios of population growth, based on assumptions made about demographic components such as fertility and mortality rates, as well as migration flows. The resulting projection is what would occur if the stated assumptions were to hold true.

Component assumptions are based on current demographic trends, which will eventually change. Making precise assumptions about the number of immigrants and the flows of people moving between provinces is an especially difficult process, since any number of external factors can easily influence these components. As the process of change is cumulative, the reliability of projections may decrease over time.

Projections are not guarantees. This possible scenario of population growth is the result of the stated projection assumptions.

Adjustment of Base Population The Manitoba Bureau of Statistics firmly maintains that due to statistical anomalies in their net undercoverage results, Statistics Canada substantially underestimated Manitoba’s May 10, 2011 population.

To mitigate this undercount, MBS developed its own series of population estimates by age, gender and Economic Region, going back to July 1, 2007.

This population projection utilises MBS' population estimate for July 1, 2013, which incorporates an additional 16,154 individuals at the Manitoba level. Appendix B provides additional detail on the age and gender distribution of the adjustment.

Census Year Notation In this report, population is provided for July 1 of the given year, while the components of population growth are provided on a Census year basis (July 1 of the given year to June 30 of the following year). Occasionally, this report makes use of Census year notation to describe the period of time being covered. For example, the period July 1, 2013 to June 30, 2014 would be denoted as 2013/14.

Sex and Gender For the purposes of this report, the terms sex and gender are used interchangeably.



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HIGHLIGHTS

MBS projects that the Southwest region's population will reach 120,400 residents on July 1, 2020.This is a total increase of 8,600 individuals, or 7.7%, from MBS' July 1, 2013 estimate. On average, the region is expected to increase by 1.1% annually, one of the more moderate growth rates among the regions.

It is expected that the Southwest will account for 8.6% of Manitoba's population on July 1, 2020, a decrease of 0.1 percentage points from the region's 2013 share of 8.7%.

Over the 2013 to 2020 period, MBS projects total net migration for the Southwest will be an average inflow of 830 residents per year. On average, MBS expects that the Southwest region's births will outnumber their deaths by 390 people annually.

MBS projects Southwest’s median age (the age at which half the population is older, and half is younger) will be 38.5 years in 2020, 0.5 years higher than Manitoba as a whole. Compared to the region's 2013 level of 39.7 years, this is an expected decrease of 1.2 years. MBS anticipates the Southwest will have the fourth oldest median age in 2020.

Compared to the rest of the province, the Southwest's July 1, 2020 age distribution is expected to show a slight excess of males between the ages of 25 and 34, and a slight lack of residents between the ages of 35 and 49.

Children aged 14 or under are expected to comprise 19.0% of the Southwest's July 1, 2020 population. Individuals aged 15 to 64 are projected to account for 62.7%, while the remaining 18.3% of residents are predicted to be aged 65 or over.

111.8

120.4

80

100

120

140

160

180

2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036

People (000's)

Southwest Estimated & Projected PopulationEstimated Projected

Data Source: Statistics Canada (2001-2005), MBS Estimates (2006-2012), MBS Projection (2013-2038)

05101520253035404550556065707580859095100+

05

101520253035404550556065707580859095

100

2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0

AgeAge

Percent

Population Pyramid - 2020Projected Age Distribution

Female Male

Note: Population is for July 1 of given year.Shares based on individual gender totals.

100+ 100+100+ 100+100+ 100+Southwest Non-Southwest

Data Source: MBS Projection



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APPENDIX A

METHODOLOGY



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METHODOLOGY

The Manitoba Bureau of Statistics (MBS) has used its Regional Cohort Component Model to develop this projection for Manitoba and its Economic Regions. MBS used the following assumptions to generate population and components of demographic change by single years of age and gender.

Data Sources This MBS population projection makes use of the following data sources:

• Population & Component estimates as of July 1, by age and gender for Manitoba (Statistics Canada - September 2014).

• Population & Component estimates as of July 1, by age and gender for Census Divisions (Statistics Canada - February 2014).

• Live Births and Deaths of Manitobans in Manitoba (Manitoba Vital Statistics Agency - Custom Tabulations).

• Provincial Nominee Program data (Manitoba Labour & Immigration - Custom Tabulations).

Base Population The base population estimates were derived using data available from Statistics Canada. These MBS estimates are based on the 2011 Census counts, and have been adjusted for net Census undercoverage, incompletely enumerated Indian reserves and an estimate of the demographic growth between Census day and the date of the estimate. MBS also incorporated an adjustment for statistical anomalies in Statistics Canada's net undercoverage results. This effectively added 16,154 individuals to Statistics Canada's estimate of Manitoba's July 2013 population. Appendix B provides additional information on this adjustment.

For each of Manitoba's Economic Regions, the projection model requires population for each gender by single years of age. To achieve this, MBS applied a component-cohort method to the 2006 final intercensal population estimate by age, gender and region. Components of population growth from Statistics Canada, together with a reduced estimate of the Residual Deviation were used to derive the MBS population estimates for 2013.

Fertility MBS used data from Statistics Canada and the Manitoba Vital Statistics Agency to determine the ratio of age specific fertility rates (ASFR) to the total fertility rate (TFR) for each Economic Region. Averages of the ratios for 2010 to 2012 were calculated for each region. Regional ASFR distributions were assumed to remain at these averages throughout the projection.

Taking the ratio of the TFR for a given Economic Region to the TFR for Manitoba as a whole, index rates were calculated for each region. Based on the average index for 2010 to 2012, together with Manitoba's 10 year average TFR, regional TFR assumptions were made. It was assumed that the TFR for each region would remain constant throughout the projection period.

It should be noted that Manitoba's projected TFR does not remain constant, as it is calculated using regional projection results, and is therefore influenced by regional population changes.



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Mortality MBS constructed life tables using the average of death data covering the 2010 to 2012 period (Statistics Canada), in conjunction with population data for 2011 (Statistics Canada). In certain situations, raking was used on the death data in order to construct the life tables.

Initially, life tables for each Economic Region were created using 5-year age groups. Then, based on the life expectancy at birth results from the initial life tables, the regions were grouped together in order to calculate life tables based on single years of age.

For these projection scenarios, the groups are the same for both genders, and consist of: • Group 1 - North • Group 2 - Southwest, North Central, Winnipeg, Interlake and Parklands • Group 3 - Southeast and South Central

For each regional group, life expectancy at birth for males was assumed to increase by 0.9 years for every five years of the projection. Similarly, females were assumed to have a five-year increase of 0.5 years.

By modifying the average number of deaths in each age group by the same certain percentage, namely, the one required to achieve the desired life expectancy at birth, projected life tables were created based on the grouped life tables.

At the beginning of the projection period, the age and gender specific survival rates from the 2011 grouped life tables are used for each Economic Region. At the end of the projection period, the age and gender specific survival rates from the projected life tables are used for each Economic Region. The remaining years of the projection use linear interpolation to calculate survival rates based on the assumed growth in life expectancy at birth.

Migration Age and Gender Distributions For all migration components, an age and gender distribution for Manitoba was calculated using an average of five years of data. While distributions for all components were calculated using data from Statistics Canada, the immigration component also made use of data from Manitoba Labour & Immigration. It was assumed that the age and gender distribution for Manitoba would apply to all Economic Regions, and would remain constant throughout the projection.

Regional Distributions Regional distributions for all migration components were derived using data from Statistics Canada. For the immigration component, separate distributions were calculated for Provincial Nominees and non-Provincial Nominees. Averages over various time periods formed the basis for the projection assumptions. For 2020 onward, distributions were assumed constant for some components, while others assumed a growth trend. The regional distributions for the years 2013, 2014 and 2016 to 2019 were calculated by linear interpolation.



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Method of Regional Migration Distribution by Component

Migration Component By 2015 ----------------------- By 2020 ----------------------

Intraprovincial (In and Out) Average Natural Log Trend (2010-2012) (2001-2012)

Interprovincial (In and Out) Average Natural Log Trend (2010-2012) (2001-2012)

Provincial Nominees Average Average (2011-2013) (2009-2013)

Non-Provincial Nominees Average Average (2011-2013) (2009-2013)

Emigration Average Average (2010-2012) (2008-2012)

Other International* Average Average (2009-2012) (2001-2012)

*Other International Migration is net non-permanent residents, plus returning emigrants, less net temporary emigrants. Due to issues with the regional net non-permanent residents for the years 2005/06 and 2010/11, those years are excluded from average calculations. Note: Projection methods using averages are constant from 2020 onward; those using the natural log trend follow the trend.


Manitoba Migration Levels Assumptions for Manitoba's migration flows were derived using data from both Statistics Canada and Manitoba Labour & Immigration. It was assumed that with the exception of the intraprovincial migration component, levels would remain constant from 2020 onward. The migration flows for the years 2014 and 2016 to 2019 were calculated by linear interpolation.

Manitoba Projected Migration Levels by Component

Migration Component By 2015 ----------------------- By 2020 ----------------------

Intraprovincial (In and Out) 27,500 25,900^ Interprovincial In 9,300 7,700Interprovincial Out 14,000 11,500Provincial Nominees 10,700 10,700Non-Provincial Nominees 3,900 3,900Emigration 1,500 1,500Other International* 1,600 1,500*Other International Migration is net non-permanent residents, plus returning emigrants, less net temporary emigrants. ^Intraprovincial migration is not constant, but follows a natural log trend from 2020 onward.




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Regional Cohort Component Model Overview Start with Population At beginning of year (July 1st)

On a sex and single year of age basis, for

each Economic Region.

Manitoba is calculated from regional results.

add in Births• plus Age specific fertility rate * Population

(Females 15 to 49)

add in Net Migration • plus Immigration• minus Emigration• plus Other international migration • plus Interprovincial in • minus Interprovincial out • plus Intraprovincial in • minus Intraprovincial out

subtract Deaths • minus (1 - Survival Rate) *

(Population + Births + Net Migration) increase Age by 1 year

Results in Projected population at beginning of next year



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APPENDIX B

BASE POPULATION ADJUSTMENT



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BASE POPULATION ADJUSTMENT

The Manitoba Bureau of Statistics firmly maintains that due to statistical anomalies in their net undercoverage results, Statistics Canada substantially underestimated Manitoba’s May 10, 2011 population.

To mitigate this undercount, MBS applied an upward adjustment of 16,154 individuals to Manitoba's total population. MBS' estimates for Southwest incorporate a downward adjustment of 720 people for July 1, 2013.

2013 Population Estimates by Selected Age Group - Southwest

Age Statistics Manitoba Bureau Population AdjustmentGroup Canada of Statistics People Percent (%)

0-4 7,170 7,130 -40 -0.6 (6.4%) (6.4%) (0.0 points)

5-17 17,440 16,870 -570 -3.3 (15.5%) (15.1%) (-0.4 points)

18-24 10,870 11,110 240 2.2 (9.7%) (9.9%) (0.2 points)

18 & Over 87,950 87,850 -100 -0.1 (78.1%) (78.5%) (0.4 points)

15-64 73,290 72,840 -450 -0.6 (65.1%) (65.1%) (0.0 points)

55-64 14,260 14,460 200 1.4 (12.7%) (12.9%) (0.2 points)

65 & Over 18,780 19,110 330 1.8 (16.7%) (17.1%) (0.4 points)

65-74 9,640 9,650 10 0.1 (8.6%) (8.6%) (0.0 points)

75-84 5,910 6,010 100 1.7 (5.3%) (5.4%) (0.1 points)

85 & Over 3,240 3,450 210 6.5 (2.9%) (3.1%) (0.2 points)

All Ages 112,570 111,850 -720 -0.6Note: Population is for July 1 of given year. Numbers may not add to totals due to rounding. Numbers in brackets refer to an age group's percent share of total, or the change, in percentage points, thereof.

Data Source: MBS Estimates and Statistics Canada

-500

-400

-300

-200

-100

0

100

200

300

4 &Under

10-14 20-24 30-34 40-44 50-54 60-64 70-74 80-84 90-94 100 &Over

People

Base Population Adjustment*By Age Group: July 1, 2013

SouthwestMales Females

Data Source: MBS Estimates and Statistics Canada*Defined as MBS estimate minus Statistics Canada estimate.



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APPENDIX C

REGIONAL RESULTS



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2014 Population ProjectionRegional Results

SouthwestDemographic Statistics

Demographic Estimated ProjectedComponent 2003 2008 2013 2018 2020 2023 2028 2038

Population (July 1) 105,766 107,241 111,800 117,700 120,400 124,500 131,400 145,000Change 1 295 912 1,180 1,350 1,367 1,380 1,360Change (%) 1 0.3 0.9 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.0Births 1,209 1,341 1,460 1,560 1,570 1,580 1,590 1,770Deaths 1,168 1,100 1,120 1,130 1,130 1,140 1,170 1,300Natural Increase 41 241 340 430 440 440 420 460Intraprovincial In 3,591 2,904 3,250 3,000 2,870 2,830 2,770 2,690Intraprovincial Out 3,422 2,882 3,000 2,860 2,780 2,740 2,690 2,610Net Intraprovincial 169 22 250 130 80 80 80 80Interprovincial In 1,599 1,517 1,650 1,090 1,020 1,020 1,030 1,050Interprovincial Out 1,726 1,793 2,210 1,530 1,400 1,410 1,410 1,420Net Interprovincial -127 -276 -560 -440 -380 -380 -380 -380Immigration 258 758 1,000 1,120 1,220 1,220 1,220 1,220Emigration 86 108 70 90 90 90 90 90Net International 172 650 940 1,040 1,130 1,130 1,130 1,130Other International 2 33 57 210 140 110 110 110 110Total Net 3 247 453 840 870 940 940 940 9401) Average annual change. 2) Comprised of net non-permanent residents, plus returning emigrants, less net temporary emigrants.3) Sum of Net Intraprovincial, Net Interprovincial, Net International and Other International Migration.Note: Components are for July 1 of given year to June 30 of following year. Numbers may not add to totals due to rounding.

Data Source: MBS Projection and Statistics Canada

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2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0

AgeAge

Percent

Population PyramidProjected Age Distribution

Female Male


100+ 100+2013

100+ 100+100+ 100+2020



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SouthwestPopulation by Age Group

14 & 85 & Year Under 15 to 24 25 to 34 35 to 44 45 to 54 55 to 64 65 to 74 75 to 84 Over Total

Level2013 19,900 15,200 14,900 13,200 15,100 14,500 9,600 6,000 3,500 111,8002018 22,000 14,400 17,100 13,800 14,000 15,400 11,400 6,200 3,400 117,7002020 22,800 14,400 17,400 14,600 13,800 15,400 12,200 6,500 3,300 120,4002023 24,000 14,700 17,100 16,600 14,000 14,600 12,900 7,400 3,300 124,5002028 25,000 16,500 16,300 19,100 14,800 13,700 13,800 8,800 3,600 131,4002038 26,100 19,000 18,300 18,400 20,100 14,500 12,400 10,900 5,400 145,000Average Annual Change from 20132018 420 -160 440 120 -220 180 360 40 -20 1,1802020 414 -114 357 200 -186 129 371 71 -29 1,2292023 410 -50 220 340 -110 10 330 140 -20 1,2702028 340 87 93 393 -20 -53 280 187 7 1,3072038 248 152 136 208 200 0 112 196 76 1,328Average Annual Percent Change from 2013 (%)2018 2.1 -1.1 3.0 0.9 -1.5 1.2 3.8 0.7 -0.6 1.12020 2.1 -0.8 2.4 1.5 -1.2 0.9 3.9 1.2 -0.8 1.12023 2.1 -0.3 1.5 2.6 -0.7 0.1 3.4 2.3 -0.6 1.12028 1.7 0.6 0.6 3.0 -0.1 -0.4 2.9 3.1 0.2 1.22038 1.2 1.0 0.9 1.6 1.3 0.0 1.2 3.3 2.2 1.2

Note: Population is for July 1. Numbers may not add to totals due to rounding.


-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

4 &Under

10-14 20-24 30-34 40-44 50-54 60-64 70-74 80-84 90-94 100 &Over

People (000's)

Population ChangeBy Age Group: 2013 to 2020

Males Females



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SouthwestNatural Change

International Migration


-0.3

0.0

0.3

0.6

0.9

1.2

1.5

1.8

2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036

People (000's)

International MigrationEstimated & Projected

Emigration Immigration* Net International*

*Includes Returning Emigrants and Net Non-Permanent Residents less Net Temporary Emigrants.

ProjectedEstimated

-1.5

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036

People (000's)

Natural ChangeEstimated & Projected

Deaths Births Natural Change

ProjectedEstimated



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SouthwestTotal Net Migration Components

Component Growth


-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036

People (000's)

Total Net Migration ComponentsEstimated & Projected

Net Intraprovincial Net InterprovincialNet International* Total Net Migration


ProjectedEstimated

-8.0

-6.0

-4.0

-2.0

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036

People (000's)

Component GrowthEstimated & Projected

Total Out Migration DeathsTotal In Migration* BirthsComponent Growth


ProjectedEstimated



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Southwest10 Year Comparison

Manitoba Comparison - 2020


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2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0

AgeAge

Percent

Population PyramidEstimated & Projected Age Distribution

Female Male


100+ 100+2013

100+ 100+2003

100+ 100+2023

05101520253035404550556065707580859095100+

05

101520253035404550556065707580859095

100

2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0

AgeAge

Percent

Population Pyramid - 2020Projected Age Distribution

Female Male


100+ 100+Southwest

100+ 100+100+ 100+Manitoba



_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

- 22 -


Southwest All Ages Median Age

14 & Under 14 & Under (Share of All Ages)

15 to 64 15 to 64 (Share of All Ages)

65 & Over 65 & Over (Share of All Ages)


13

15

17

19

21

23

2001 2011 2021 2031

Percent

Estimated Projected

10

15

20

25

30

35

2001 2011 2021 2031

Estimated ProjectedPeople (000's)

57

59

61

63

65

67

2001 2011 2021 2031

Percent

Estimated Projected

50

60

70

80

90

100

2001 2011 2021 2031


14

16

18

20

22

24

2001 2011 2021 2031

Percent

Estimated Projected

10

15

20

25

30

35

2001 2011 2021 2031


37

38

39

40

41

42

2001 2011 2021 2031

Years

Estimated Projected

100

110

120

130

140

150

2001 2011 2021 2031




_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

- 23 -


SouthwestGrowth Rates for Total Population

Growth Rates for 65 & Over Population

Data Source: MBS Projection

-3.0

-2.0

-1.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Percent Change

Projected Growth RatesBy Selected Age Group

65 to 74 75 to 84 85 & Over

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Percent Change

Projected Growth RatesBy Selected Age Group

14 & Under 15 to 64 65 & Over



_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

- 24 -


SouthwestPopulation Distribution by Selected Age Group

Potential Labour Force Entrants Vs. Potential Labour Force Retirees


0.02.04.06.08.0

10.012.014.016.018.0

1

Projected PopulationDistribution by Age Group

12 & Under 13 to 17 18 to 24 25 to 3435 to 44 45 to 54 55 to 64 65 & Over

2013All Ages - 111,800

2020All Ages - 120,400

2038All Ages - 145,000

15.5

6.0

9.9

13.3

11.8

13.5

12.9

17.1 16.6

5.8

8.5

14.412.1

11.5

12.8

18.3 15.5

6.4

9.2

12.6

12.7

13.8

10.0

19.8

Percent Share

7.0

9.5

12.0

14.5

17.0

19.5

22.0

2001 2011 2021 2031

Population Aged 15 to 24 & 55 to 64Estimated & Projected

15 to 24 55 to 64

0

5

10

15

20

2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036

Share of Total (%)ProjectedEstimated

5

10

15

20

25

2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036

People (000's)ProjectedEstimated



_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

- 25 -

Tabl

e 1

PR

OJE

CTE

D C

OM

PON

ENTS

OF

POPU

LATI

ON

GR

OW

TH F

OR

SO

UTH

WES

T

BO

TH S

EXES

- -

- -

- -

- -

- -

- -

- -

- M

IGR

ATIO

N-

- -

- -

- -

- -

- -

- -

- C

ENSU

SPO

PULA

TIO

NN

ATU

RAL

NET

INTR

A-N

ET IN

TER

-N

ET IN

TER

-TO

TAL

YEAR

(JU

LY 1

)B

IRTH

SD

EATH

SIN

CR

EASE

PRO

VIN

CIA

LPR

OVI

NC

IAL

NAT

ION

ALO

THER

NET

2013

111,

800

1,46

01,

120

340

250

-560

940

210

840

2014

113,

000

1,47

01,

120

350

230

-540

920

200

800

2015

114,

200

1,50

01,

130

370

210

-530

890

180

750

2016

115,

300

1,52

01,

130

390

190

-500

940

160

790

2017

116,

500

1,54

01,

130

410

160

-470

990

150

830

2018

117,

700

1,56

01,

130

430

130

-440

1,04

014

087

020

1911

9,00

01,

570

1,13

044

011

0-4

101,

090

120

910

2020

120,

400

1,57

01,

130

440

80-3

801,

130

110

940

2021

121,

700

1,58

01,

130

450

80-3

801,

130

110

940

2022

123,

100

1,58

01,

140

450

80-3

801,

130

110

940

2023

124,

500

1,58

01,

140

440

80-3

801,

130

110

940

2024

125,

900

1,58

01,

150

440

80-3

801,

130

110

940

2025

127,

300

1,58

01,

150

430

80-3

801,

130

110

940

2026

128,

700

1,58

01,

160

430

80-3

801,

130

110

940

2027

130,

000

1,59

01,

160

420

80-3

801,

130

110

940

2028

131,

400

1,59

01,

170

420

80-3

801,

130

110

940

2029

132,

800

1,59

01,

180

410

80-3

801,

130

110

940

2030

134,

100

1,60

01,

190

410

80-3

801,

130

110

940

2031

135,

500

1,61

01,

210

410

80-3

801,

130

110

940

2032

136,

800

1,63

01,

220

410

80-3

801,

130

110

940

2033

138,

200

1,64

01,

230

410

80-3

801,

130

110

940

2034

139,

500

1,66

01,

250

420

80-3

801,

130

110

940

2035

140,

900

1,69

01,

260

420

80-3

801,

130

110

940

2036

142,

200

1,71

01,

280

440

80-3

801,

130

110

940

2037

143,

600

1,74

01,

290

450

80-3

801,

130

110

940

2038

145,

000

1,77

01,

300

460

80-3

801,

130

110

940

NO

TE: A

CEN

SUS

YEAR

IS D

EFIN

ED A

S JU

LY 1

TO

JU

NE

30

DAT

A SO

UR

CE:

MAN

ITO

BA

BU

REA

U O

F ST

ATIS

TIC

S

AUG

UST

201

5



_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

- 26 -

Tabl

e 2

PR

OJE

CTE

D P

OPU

LATI

ON

BY

SEX

AND

AG

E: S

OU

THW

EST

B

OTH

SEX

ES(IN

000

'S)

AGE

0-4

5-9

10-1

415

-19

20-2

425

-29

30-3

435

-39

40-4

445

-49

50-5

455

-59

60-6

465

-69

70-7

475

-79

80-8

485

-89

90-9

495

-99

100+

TOTA

L

YEAR

2013

7.1

6.5

6.3

7.1

8.1

8.1

6.8

6.4

6.8

7.0

8.1

7.7

6.7

5.5

4.1

3.2

2.8

2.1

1.1

0.2

0.0

111.

820

147.

36.

66.

47.

08.

18.

47.

16.

36.

96.

98.

07.

86.

95.

84.

33.

32.

72.

01.

10.

30.

011

3.0

2015

7.4

6.9

6.4

7.0

7.9

8.6

7.4

6.4

6.9

6.7

7.9

7.9

7.1

6.0

4.3

3.4

2.6

2.1

1.1

0.3

0.0

114.

220

167.

47.

16.

66.

97.

88.

77.

76.

66.

86.

77.

78.

07.

26.

34.

43.

42.

62.

01.

10.

30.

011

5.3

2017

7.5

7.3

6.7

6.8

7.8

8.6

8.1

6.9

6.7

6.9

7.3

7.9

7.4

6.3

4.8

3.5

2.5

2.0

1.1

0.3

0.1

116.

5

2018

7.6

7.5

6.9

6.8

7.7

8.5

8.6

7.1

6.7

7.0

7.1

7.9

7.5

6.4

5.1

3.6

2.6

1.9

1.1

0.4

0.1

117.

720

197.

77.

77.

06.

97.

58.

48.

97.

56.

77.

06.

97.

97.

56.

55.

33.

72.

61.

81.

10.

40.

111

9.0

2020

7.8

7.8

7.3

6.9

7.5

8.3

9.1

7.8

6.8

7.0

6.7

7.7

7.6

6.7

5.5

3.8

2.7

1.8

1.1

0.4

0.1

120.

420

217.

87.

97.

67.

17.

48.

29.

28.

27.

07.

06.

77.

57.

76.

85.

73.

92.

71.

81.

10.

40.

112

1.7

2022

7.9

7.9

7.8

7.2

7.3

8.1

9.2

8.6

7.3

6.9

6.9

7.2

7.7

7.0

5.8

4.2

2.8

1.8

1.1

0.4

0.1

123.

1

2023

7.9

8.0

8.0

7.4

7.2

8.0

9.1

9.1

7.6

6.9

7.0

6.9

7.6

7.1

5.8

4.5

2.9

1.8

1.0

0.4

0.1

124.

520

248.

08.

18.

27.

67.

47.

99.

19.

47.

96.

97.

16.

87.

67.

16.

04.

73.

01.

81.

00.

40.

112

5.9

2025

8.0

8.2

8.3

7.8

7.4

7.9

8.9

9.6

8.3

7.0

7.1

6.6

7.5

7.2

6.1

4.9

3.1

1.9

1.0

0.4

0.1

127.

320

268.

08.

38.

48.

17.

57.

78.

89.

78.

67.

37.

16.

67.

37.

36.

35.

13.

21.

91.

00.

40.

112

8.7

2027

8.0

8.4

8.5

8.4

7.7

7.6

8.8

9.7

9.0

7.5

7.0

6.8

7.0

7.3

6.4

5.1

3.4

2.0

1.0

0.4

0.1

130.

0

2028

8.0

8.4

8.5

8.6

7.9

7.6

8.7

9.6

9.5

7.8

7.0

6.9

6.7

7.2

6.5

5.2

3.6

2.1

1.0

0.4

0.1

131.

420

298.

08.

48.

68.

78.

07.

78.

59.

69.

88.

27.

07.

06.

67.

26.

65.

33.

82.

11.

10.

40.

113

2.8

2030

8.0

8.5

8.7

8.8

8.3

7.8

8.5

9.4

10.0

8.5

7.1

7.0

6.4

7.1

6.7

5.4

4.0

2.2

1.1

0.4

0.1

134.

120

318.

08.

58.

88.

98.

67.

98.

49.

310

.18.

97.

47.

06.

46.

96.

85.

64.

22.

31.

10.

40.

113

5.5

2032

8.1

8.5

8.9

9.0

8.8

8.1

8.3

9.3

10.1

9.3

7.6

6.9

6.6

6.6

6.7

5.7

4.2

2.5

1.2

0.4

0.1

136.

8

2033

8.1

8.5

8.9

9.1

9.0

8.3

8.3

9.2

10.0

9.8

7.9

6.9

6.7

6.4

6.7

5.8

4.3

2.6

1.2

0.4

0.1

138.

220

348.

28.

59.

09.

29.

28.

48.

49.

110

.010

.08.

26.

96.

86.

26.

75.

94.

42.

81.

30.

40.

113

9.5

2035

8.2

8.5

9.0

9.3

9.3

8.7

8.4

9.0

9.9

10.3

8.6

7.0

6.8

6.1

6.6

6.0

4.5

2.9

1.3

0.4

0.1

140.

920

368.

38.

59.

09.

49.

48.

98.

58.

99.

810

.48.

97.

36.

86.

16.

46.

14.

63.

01.

40.

50.

114

2.2

2037

8.4

8.5

9.0

9.4

9.4

9.2

8.7

8.8

9.7

10.3

9.4

7.5

6.7

6.3

6.2

6.0

4.8

3.1

1.5

0.5

0.1

143.

6

2038

8.5

8.6

9.0

9.5

9.5

9.4

8.9

8.8

9.6

10.3

9.8

7.8

6.7

6.4

5.9

6.0

4.9

3.1

1.6

0.5

0.1

145.

0

DAT

A SO

UR

CE:

MAN

ITO

BA

BU

REA

U O

F ST

ATIS

TIC

S

AUG

UST

201

5



_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

- 27 -

Tabl

e 3

PR

OJE

CTE

D P

OPU

LATI

ON

BY

SEX

AND

AG

E: S

OU

THW

EST

FE

MAL

E(IN

000

'S)

AGE

0-4

5-9

10-1

415

-19

20-2

425

-29

30-3

435

-39

40-4

445

-49

50-5

455

-59

60-6

465

-69

70-7

475

-79

80-8

485

-89

90-9

495

-99

100+

TOTA

L

YEAR

2013

3.4

3.2

3.1

3.5

3.8

3.9

3.3

3.2

3.5

3.5

4.0

3.9

3.4

2.8

2.2

1.8

1.6

1.3

0.7

0.2

0.0

56.4

2014

3.5

3.2

3.1

3.5

3.8

4.0

3.5

3.3

3.5

3.4

4.0

3.9

3.4

3.0

2.2

1.8

1.5

1.2

0.8

0.2

0.0

56.9

2015

3.6

3.3

3.1

3.5

3.8

4.1

3.6

3.3

3.6

3.3

4.0

4.0

3.5

3.1

2.3

1.8

1.5

1.2

0.8

0.2

0.0

57.5

2016

3.6

3.5

3.2

3.4

3.8

4.1

3.8

3.3

3.5

3.3

3.9

4.0

3.6

3.2

2.3

1.9

1.5

1.2

0.8

0.2

0.0

58.0

2017

3.7

3.6

3.2

3.4

3.7

4.1

4.0

3.4

3.5

3.5

3.7

4.0

3.7

3.2

2.5

1.9

1.4

1.2

0.7

0.3

0.0

58.6

2018

3.7

3.6

3.4

3.3

3.7

4.0

4.2

3.5

3.4

3.6

3.5

3.9

3.8

3.2

2.6

2.0

1.4

1.1

0.7

0.3

0.0

59.1

2019

3.8

3.7

3.4

3.4

3.7

4.0

4.3

3.7

3.4

3.6

3.4

3.9

3.8

3.3

2.8

2.0

1.5

1.1

0.7

0.3

0.0

59.8

2020

3.8

3.8

3.6

3.4

3.7

3.9

4.4

3.8

3.5

3.7

3.3

3.9

3.8

3.3

2.9

2.1

1.5

1.1

0.7

0.3

0.1

60.4

2021

3.8

3.8

3.7

3.4

3.6

3.9

4.4

4.0

3.5

3.6

3.4

3.8

3.9

3.4

3.0

2.1

1.6

1.1

0.7

0.3

0.1

61.0

2022

3.9

3.9

3.8

3.5

3.6

3.9

4.4

4.2

3.6

3.6

3.5

3.6

3.8

3.6

2.9

2.2

1.6

1.0

0.7

0.3

0.1

61.7

2023

3.9

3.9

3.9

3.6

3.5

3.9

4.3

4.4

3.7

3.5

3.7

3.4

3.8

3.6

3.0

2.3

1.7

1.1

0.7

0.3

0.1

62.4

2024

3.9

4.0

4.0

3.7

3.6

3.9

4.3

4.5

3.9

3.6

3.7

3.4

3.8

3.6

3.1

2.5

1.7

1.1

0.6

0.3

0.1

63.0

2025

3.9

4.0

4.0

3.8

3.5

3.9

4.3

4.6

4.1

3.6

3.7

3.3

3.8

3.7

3.1

2.6

1.7

1.1

0.6

0.3

0.1

63.7

2026

3.9

4.1

4.1

3.9

3.6

3.8

4.3

4.7

4.3

3.6

3.7

3.3

3.7

3.7

3.2

2.7

1.7

1.2

0.6

0.3

0.1

64.4

2027

3.9

4.1

4.1

4.0

3.7

3.8

4.3

4.6

4.4

3.7

3.6

3.5

3.5

3.7

3.3

2.7

1.9

1.2

0.6

0.3

0.1

65.0

2028

3.9

4.1

4.2

4.1

3.8

3.7

4.3

4.6

4.7

3.9

3.6

3.6

3.3

3.7

3.4

2.7

2.0

1.2

0.6

0.3

0.1

65.7

2029

3.9

4.1

4.2

4.2

3.9

3.7

4.2

4.6

4.8

4.0

3.6

3.6

3.3

3.7

3.4

2.8

2.1

1.3

0.7

0.3

0.1

66.3

2030

3.9

4.1

4.3

4.3

4.0

3.7

4.2

4.5

4.9

4.2

3.6

3.6

3.2

3.6

3.4

2.8

2.2

1.3

0.7

0.3

0.1

67.0

2031

3.9

4.1

4.3

4.3

4.1

3.8

4.1

4.5

4.9

4.4

3.7

3.6

3.2

3.5

3.5

2.9

2.3

1.3

0.7

0.3

0.1

67.6

2032

4.0

4.1

4.3

4.4

4.2

3.9

4.1

4.5

4.9

4.6

3.8

3.6

3.4

3.4

3.5

3.0

2.3

1.4

0.7

0.3

0.1

68.3

2033

4.0

4.1

4.4

4.4

4.3

4.0

4.0

4.5

4.8

4.8

3.9

3.5

3.5

3.2

3.4

3.1

2.3

1.5

0.8

0.3

0.1

68.9

2034

4.0

4.1

4.4

4.5

4.4

4.1

4.1

4.5

4.8

4.9

4.1

3.6

3.5

3.1

3.4

3.1

2.4

1.6

0.8

0.3

0.1

69.6

2035

4.0

4.2

4.4

4.5

4.4

4.2

4.1

4.5

4.8

5.0

4.2

3.6

3.6

3.1

3.4

3.2

2.4

1.7

0.8

0.3

0.1

70.2

2036

4.1

4.2

4.4

4.6

4.5

4.3

4.1

4.4

4.7

5.0

4.4

3.6

3.5

3.1

3.3

3.2

2.5

1.7

0.8

0.3

0.1

70.9

2037

4.1

4.2

4.4

4.6

4.5

4.4

4.2

4.4

4.7

5.0

4.6

3.7

3.5

3.3

3.2

3.2

2.6

1.7

0.9

0.3

0.1

71.5

2038

4.2

4.2

4.4

4.6

4.6

4.5

4.3

4.3

4.7

4.9

4.8

3.9

3.4

3.4

3.0

3.2

2.6

1.7

0.9

0.3

0.1

72.2

DAT

A SO

UR

CE:

MAN

ITO

BA

BU

REA

U O

F ST

ATIS

TIC

S

AUG

UST

201

5



_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

- 28 -

Tabl

e 4

PR

OJE

CTE

D P

OPU

LATI

ON

BY

SEX

AND

AG

E: S

OU

THW

EST

M

ALE

(IN 0

00'S

)

AGE

0-4

5-9

10-1

415

-19

20-2

425

-29

30-3

435

-39

40-4

445

-49

50-5

455

-59

60-6

465

-69

70-7

475

-79

80-8

485

-89

90-9

495

-99

100+

TOTA

L

YEAR

2013

3.7

3.3

3.2

3.6

4.3

4.2

3.4

3.1

3.3

3.6

4.1

3.8

3.4

2.8

1.9

1.5

1.2

0.8

0.3

0.0

0.0

55.5

2014

3.8

3.4

3.3

3.5

4.3

4.3

3.6

3.1

3.3

3.5

4.0

3.9

3.4

2.8

2.0

1.5

1.1

0.8

0.4

0.1

0.0

56.1

2015

3.8

3.5

3.3

3.5

4.2

4.5

3.8

3.2

3.3

3.4

3.9

4.0

3.6

2.9

2.1

1.5

1.1

0.8

0.4

0.1

0.0

56.7

2016

3.8

3.6

3.4

3.4

4.1

4.6

3.9

3.3

3.2

3.3

3.8

4.0

3.6

3.1

2.1

1.5

1.1

0.8

0.4

0.1

0.0

57.3

2017

3.8

3.8

3.5

3.4

4.0

4.5

4.2

3.5

3.2

3.4

3.7

4.0

3.7

3.1

2.3

1.6

1.1

0.8

0.4

0.1

0.0

57.9

2018

3.9

3.9

3.5

3.4

3.9

4.5

4.4

3.6

3.3

3.4

3.6

4.0

3.7

3.2

2.5

1.6

1.1

0.8

0.4

0.1

0.0

58.6

2019

3.9

4.0

3.6

3.5

3.8

4.5

4.6

3.8

3.2

3.4

3.5

3.9

3.7

3.2

2.6

1.7

1.1

0.7

0.4

0.1

0.0

59.3

2020

4.0

4.0

3.7

3.6

3.8

4.3

4.7

4.0

3.3

3.4

3.4

3.8

3.8

3.3

2.6

1.7

1.2

0.7

0.4

0.1

0.0

60.0

2021

4.0

4.0

3.9

3.7

3.7

4.3

4.8

4.2

3.5

3.4

3.4

3.7

3.8

3.4

2.8

1.8

1.2

0.7

0.4

0.1

0.0

60.7

2022

4.0

4.1

4.0

3.7

3.7

4.2

4.8

4.4

3.7

3.3

3.4

3.6

3.8

3.4

2.8

1.9

1.2

0.7

0.4

0.1

0.0

61.4

2023

4.1

4.1

4.2

3.8

3.7

4.1

4.8

4.6

3.8

3.4

3.4

3.5

3.8

3.4

2.8

2.1

1.2

0.7

0.4

0.1

0.0

62.1

2024

4.1

4.1

4.2

3.9

3.8

4.0

4.7

4.8

4.0

3.4

3.4

3.4

3.8

3.5

2.9

2.2

1.3

0.7

0.4

0.1

0.0

62.9

2025

4.1

4.2

4.3

4.0

3.8

4.0

4.6

5.0

4.2

3.5

3.4

3.3

3.7

3.6

3.0

2.3

1.4

0.8

0.4

0.1

0.0

63.6

2026

4.1

4.2

4.3

4.2

3.9

3.9

4.6

5.1

4.4

3.6

3.4

3.3

3.6

3.6

3.1

2.4

1.4

0.8

0.4

0.1

0.0

64.3

2027

4.1

4.3

4.3

4.3

4.0

3.9

4.5

5.0

4.6

3.8

3.4

3.4

3.4

3.6

3.1

2.4

1.5

0.8

0.4

0.1

0.0

65.0

2028

4.1

4.3

4.4

4.4

4.1

3.9

4.4

5.0

4.8

3.9

3.4

3.3

3.4

3.6

3.1

2.4

1.7

0.8

0.4

0.1

0.0

65.7

2029

4.1

4.3

4.4

4.5

4.2

4.0

4.3

5.0

5.0

4.1

3.4

3.4

3.3

3.6

3.2

2.5

1.7

0.9

0.4

0.1

0.0

66.4

2030

4.1

4.3

4.5

4.6

4.3

4.0

4.3

4.9

5.2

4.3

3.5

3.4

3.2

3.5

3.3

2.6

1.8

0.9

0.4

0.1

0.0

67.1

2031

4.1

4.3

4.5

4.6

4.4

4.1

4.2

4.8

5.3

4.5

3.7

3.3

3.2

3.4

3.3

2.6

1.9

1.0

0.4

0.1

0.0

67.8

2032

4.1

4.3

4.5

4.6

4.6

4.2

4.2

4.8

5.2

4.7

3.8

3.3

3.2

3.2

3.3

2.7

1.9

1.1

0.4

0.1

0.0

68.5

2033

4.1

4.3

4.6

4.7

4.7

4.3

4.2

4.7

5.2

5.0

4.0

3.4

3.2

3.2

3.3

2.7

2.0

1.2

0.5

0.1

0.0

69.3

2034

4.2

4.3

4.6

4.7

4.8

4.4

4.3

4.6

5.2

5.1

4.2

3.4

3.3

3.1

3.3

2.8

2.0

1.2

0.5

0.1

0.0

70.0

2035

4.2

4.3

4.6

4.8

4.8

4.5

4.3

4.5

5.1

5.3

4.4

3.4

3.3

3.0

3.2

2.8

2.1

1.3

0.5

0.1

0.0

70.7

2036

4.3

4.3

4.6

4.8

4.9

4.6

4.4

4.5

5.0

5.4

4.5

3.6

3.2

3.0

3.1

2.9

2.1

1.3

0.5

0.2

0.0

71.4

2037

4.3

4.4

4.6

4.8

4.9

4.8

4.5

4.4

5.0

5.4

4.8

3.8

3.2

3.1

3.0

2.9

2.2

1.4

0.6

0.2

0.0

72.1

2038

4.4

4.4

4.6

4.9

4.9

4.9

4.6

4.5

4.9

5.4

5.0

3.9

3.3

3.1

2.9

2.9

2.2

1.4

0.7

0.2

0.0

72.8

DAT

A SO

UR

CE:

MAN

ITO

BA

BU

REA

U O

F ST

ATIS

TIC

S

AUG

UST

201

5



_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

- 29 -

Tabl

e 5

PR

OJE

CTE

D P

OPU

LATI

ON

BY

SEX

AND

AG

E: S

OU

THW

EST

B

OTH

SEX

ES(P

ERC

ENT

OF

TOTA

L)

AGE

0-4

5-9

10-1

415

-19

20-2

425

-29

30-3

435

-39

40-4

445

-49

50-5

455

-59

60-6

465

-69

70-7

475

-79

80-8

485

-89

90-9

495

-99

100+

TOTA

L

YEAR

2013

6.4

5.8

5.6

6.3

7.3

7.3

6.1

5.7

6.1

6.3

7.2

6.9

6.0

4.9

3.7

2.9

2.5

1.9

0.9

0.2

0.0

100.

020

146.

45.

95.

76.

27.

27.

46.

35.

66.

16.

17.

16.

96.

15.

13.

82.

92.

41.

81.

00.

20.

010

0.0

2015

6.4

6.0

5.6

6.1

7.0

7.5

6.5

5.6

6.0

5.9

6.9

6.9

6.2

5.3

3.8

2.9

2.3

1.8

1.0

0.2

0.0

100.

020

166.

46.

25.

75.

96.

87.

56.

75.

85.

95.

86.

66.

96.

25.

43.

92.

92.

21.

81.

00.

30.

010

0.0

2017

6.4

6.3

5.8

5.8

6.7

7.4

7.0

5.9

5.7

5.9

6.3

6.8

6.3

5.4

4.1

3.0

2.2

1.7

1.0

0.3

0.0

100.

0

2018

6.4

6.4

5.9

5.8

6.5

7.2

7.3

6.1

5.7

5.9

6.0

6.7

6.3

5.4

4.3

3.1

2.2

1.6

1.0

0.3

0.0

100.

020

196.

46.

45.

95.

86.

37.

17.

46.

35.

65.

95.

86.

66.

35.

54.

53.

12.

21.

50.

90.

30.

010

0.0

2020

6.4

6.5

6.1

5.7

6.2

6.9

7.6

6.5

5.6

5.9

5.6

6.4

6.3

5.5

4.6

3.1

2.2

1.5

0.9

0.3

0.1

100.

020

216.

46.

46.

25.

86.

06.

77.

66.

75.

85.

85.

56.

26.

35.

64.

73.

22.

21.

50.

90.

30.

110

0.0

2022

6.4

6.4

6.4

5.9

5.9

6.6

7.4

7.0

5.9

5.6

5.6

5.8

6.2

5.7

4.7

3.4

2.3

1.4

0.9

0.3

0.1

100.

0

2023

6.4

6.4

6.4

6.0

5.8

6.5

7.3

7.3

6.1

5.5

5.7

5.6

6.1

5.7

4.7

3.6

2.3

1.4

0.8

0.3

0.1

100.

020

246.

36.

56.

56.

05.

86.

37.

27.

46.

35.

55.

65.

46.

05.

64.

73.

72.

41.

50.

80.

30.

110

0.0

2025

6.3

6.5

6.5

6.2

5.8

6.2

7.0

7.5

6.5

5.5

5.6

5.2

5.9

5.7

4.8

3.8

2.4

1.5

0.8

0.3

0.1

100.

020

266.

26.

56.

56.

35.

86.

06.

97.

66.

75.

75.

55.

25.

65.

74.

93.

92.

51.

50.

80.

30.

110

0.0

2027

6.2

6.4

6.5

6.4

5.9

5.9

6.7

7.4

7.0

5.8

5.4

5.3

5.4

5.6

5.0

3.9

2.6

1.5

0.8

0.3

0.1

100.

0

2028

6.1

6.4

6.5

6.5

6.0

5.8

6.6

7.3

7.2

5.9

5.3

5.3

5.1

5.5

5.0

3.9

2.8

1.6

0.8

0.3

0.1

100.

020

296.

06.

46.

56.

66.

15.

86.

47.

27.

46.

15.

35.

34.

95.

44.

94.

02.

91.

60.

80.

30.

110

0.0

2030

6.0

6.3

6.5

6.6

6.2

5.8

6.3

7.0

7.5

6.3

5.3

5.2

4.8

5.3

5.0

4.1

3.0

1.6

0.8

0.3

0.1

100.

020

315.

96.

36.

56.

66.

35.

86.

26.

97.

56.

55.

45.

24.

75.

15.

04.

13.

11.

70.

80.

30.

110

0.0

2032

5.9

6.2

6.5

6.6

6.4

5.9

6.0

6.8

7.4

6.8

5.6

5.1

4.8

4.8

4.9

4.2

3.1

1.8

0.8

0.3

0.1

100.

0

2033

5.9

6.1

6.5

6.6

6.5

6.0

6.0

6.6

7.2

7.1

5.7

5.0

4.9

4.6

4.9

4.2

3.1

1.9

0.9

0.3

0.1

100.

020

345.

96.

16.

46.

66.

66.

06.

06.

57.

27.

25.

95.

04.

94.

54.

84.

23.

12.

00.

90.

30.

110

0.0

2035

5.9

6.0

6.4

6.6

6.6

6.2

6.0

6.4

7.0

7.3

6.1

5.0

4.8

4.3

4.7

4.2

3.2

2.1

0.9

0.3

0.1

100.

020

365.

96.

06.

36.

66.

66.

36.

06.

36.

97.

36.

35.

14.

84.

34.

54.

33.

32.

11.

00.

30.

110

0.0

2037

5.9

5.9

6.3

6.6

6.6

6.4

6.1

6.1

6.8

7.2

6.5

5.2

4.7

4.4

4.3

4.2

3.3

2.1

1.0

0.3

0.1

100.

0

2038

5.9

5.9

6.2

6.5

6.6

6.5

6.1

6.1

6.6

7.1

6.8

5.4

4.6

4.4

4.1

4.2

3.3

2.2

1.1

0.3

0.1

100.

0

DAT

A SO

UR

CE:

MAN

ITO

BA

BU

REA

U O

F ST

ATIS

TIC

S

AUG

UST

201

5



_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

- 30 -

Tabl

e 6

PR

OJE

CTE

D P

OPU

LATI

ON

BY

SEX

AND

AG

E: S

OU

THW

EST

FE

MAL

E(P

ERC

ENT

OF

TOTA

L)

AGE

0-4

5-9

10-1

415

-19

20-2

425

-29

30-3

435

-39

40-4

445

-49

50-5

455

-59

60-6

465

-69

70-7

475

-79

80-8

485

-89

90-9

495

-99

100+

TOTA

L

YEAR

2013

6.1

5.6

5.5

6.2

6.8

7.0

5.9

5.7

6.3

6.2

7.1

6.9

5.9

4.9

3.9

3.1

2.8

2.3

1.3

0.3

0.1

100.

020

146.

25.

75.

56.

16.

77.

16.

15.

76.

26.

07.

06.

86.

05.

23.

93.

22.

72.

21.

30.

40.

110

0.0

2015

6.2

5.8

5.5

6.0

6.6

7.1

6.3

5.7

6.2

5.8

6.9

6.9

6.1

5.4

4.0

3.2

2.6

2.1

1.3

0.4

0.1

100.

020

166.

26.

05.

55.

96.

57.

16.

55.

76.

15.

86.

66.

96.

25.

54.

03.

22.

52.

11.

30.

40.

110

0.0

2017

6.2

6.1

5.5

5.8

6.4

6.9

6.8

5.8

5.9

6.0

6.3

6.8

6.4

5.4

4.2

3.3

2.4

2.0

1.3

0.4

0.1

100.

0

2018

6.3

6.2

5.7

5.6

6.3

6.7

7.1

6.0

5.8

6.1

5.9

6.6

6.4

5.4

4.4

3.4

2.4

1.9

1.2

0.5

0.1

100.

020

196.

36.

25.

75.

66.

26.

77.

26.

15.

76.

15.

76.

66.

35.

54.

63.

42.

51.

81.

20.

50.

110

0.0

2020

6.3

6.2

5.9

5.6

6.1

6.5

7.2

6.4

5.7

6.0

5.5

6.5

6.4

5.5

4.8

3.4

2.5

1.8

1.2

0.5

0.1

100.

020

216.

36.

36.

05.

65.

96.

47.

26.

65.

76.

05.

56.

26.

45.

64.

83.

42.

61.

71.

10.

50.

110

0.0

2022

6.3

6.3

6.1

5.6

5.8

6.4

7.1

6.8

5.9

5.8

5.7

5.9

6.2

5.8

4.8

3.6

2.6

1.7

1.1

0.5

0.1

100.

0

2023

6.2

6.3

6.2

5.8

5.6

6.3

6.9

7.1

6.0

5.7

5.9

5.5

6.1

5.8

4.8

3.8

2.7

1.7

1.1

0.5

0.1

100.

020

246.

26.

36.

35.

85.

66.

26.

87.

26.

25.

65.

85.

36.

15.

74.

84.

02.

71.

71.

00.

40.

110

0.0

2025

6.1

6.3

6.3

6.0

5.6

6.1

6.7

7.3

6.4

5.6

5.8

5.2

6.0

5.8

4.9

4.1

2.7

1.7

1.0

0.4

0.1

100.

020

266.

16.

36.

36.

15.

65.

96.

67.

26.

65.

75.

75.

25.

75.

85.

04.

22.

71.

81.

00.

40.

110

0.0

2027

6.0

6.3

6.3

6.2

5.6

5.8

6.5

7.1

6.8

5.8

5.6

5.4

5.4

5.7

5.1

4.1

2.9

1.8

1.0

0.4

0.1

100.

0

2028

6.0

6.3

6.4

6.3

5.8

5.6

6.5

6.9

7.1

5.9

5.4

5.5

5.1

5.6

5.2

4.1

3.0

1.9

1.0

0.4

0.1

100.

020

295.

96.

26.

46.

35.

85.

66.

46.

97.

26.

05.

45.

54.

95.

55.

14.

23.

21.

91.

00.

40.

110

0.0

2030

5.9

6.2

6.4

6.4

6.0

5.6

6.3

6.8

7.2

6.2

5.4

5.4

4.8

5.4

5.1

4.2

3.3

1.9

1.0

0.4

0.1

100.

020

315.

86.

16.

46.

46.

15.

66.

16.

77.

26.

55.

55.

44.

85.

25.

24.

33.

41.

91.

00.

40.

110

0.0

2032

5.8

6.1

6.4

6.4

6.2

5.7

6.0

6.6

7.1

6.7

5.6

5.2

5.0

4.9

5.1

4.5

3.3

2.1

1.1

0.4

0.1

100.

0

2033

5.8

6.0

6.3

6.4

6.3

5.8

5.9

6.6

6.9

6.9

5.7

5.1

5.1

4.7

5.0

4.5

3.3

2.2

1.1

0.4

0.1

100.

020

345.

76.

06.

36.

46.

35.

85.

96.

46.

97.

05.

85.

15.

14.

54.

94.

53.

42.

31.

10.

40.

110

0.0

2035

5.7

5.9

6.2

6.4

6.3

5.9

5.8

6.4

6.8

7.1

6.0

5.1

5.1

4.4

4.9

4.5

3.4

2.4

1.1

0.4

0.1

100.

020

365.

75.

96.

26.

46.

36.

15.

86.

26.

77.

16.

25.

15.

04.

44.

74.

53.

52.

41.

10.

40.

110

0.0

2037

5.8

5.8

6.1

6.4

6.4

6.2

5.9

6.1

6.6

7.0

6.4

5.2

4.9

4.6

4.4

4.4

3.6

2.4

1.2

0.4

0.1

100.

0

2038

5.8

5.8

6.1

6.4

6.4

6.2

6.0

6.0

6.6

6.8

6.7

5.4

4.8

4.7

4.2

4.4

3.7

2.4

1.3

0.5

0.1

100.

0

DAT

A SO

UR

CE:

MAN

ITO

BA

BU

REA

U O

F ST

ATIS

TIC

S

AUG

UST

201

5



_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

- 31 -

Tabl

e 7

PR

OJE

CTE

D P

OPU

LATI

ON

BY

SEX

AND

AG

E: S

OU

THW

EST

M

ALE

(PER

CEN

T O

F TO

TAL)

AGE

0-4

5-9

10-1

415

-19

20-2

425

-29

30-3

435

-39

40-4

445

-49

50-5

455

-59

60-6

465

-69

70-7

475

-79

80-8

485

-89

90-9

495

-99

100+

TOTA

L

YEAR

2013

6.6

6.0

5.7

6.4

7.8

7.6

6.2

5.6

5.9

6.4

7.3

6.9

6.1

5.0

3.4

2.6

2.2

1.5

0.6

0.1

0.0

100.

020

146.

76.

05.

86.

27.

67.

76.

55.

55.

96.

27.

26.

96.

15.

13.

62.

62.

01.

40.

60.

10.

010

0.0

2015

6.7

6.2

5.8

6.1

7.3

7.9

6.7

5.6

5.8

6.0

6.9

7.0

6.3

5.2

3.6

2.7

1.9

1.5

0.6

0.1

0.0

100.

020

166.

66.

35.

96.

07.

18.

06.

95.

85.

75.

86.

67.

06.

35.

43.

72.

62.

01.

40.

60.

10.

010

0.0

2017

6.6

6.5

6.0

5.9

6.9

7.8

7.2

6.0

5.6

5.8

6.3

6.9

6.3

5.4

4.0

2.7

1.9

1.4

0.6

0.1

0.0

100.

0

2018

6.6

6.6

6.0

5.9

6.7

7.7

7.5

6.2

5.5

5.7

6.1

6.8

6.3

5.4

4.2

2.7

1.9

1.3

0.7

0.2

0.0

100.

020

196.

66.

76.

16.

06.

47.

57.

76.

45.

55.

75.

96.

66.

35.

44.

32.

91.

91.

20.

70.

20.

010

0.0

2020

6.6

6.7

6.3

5.9

6.3

7.2

7.9

6.7

5.5

5.7

5.7

6.4

6.3

5.6

4.4

2.9

2.0

1.2

0.7

0.2

0.0

100.

020

216.

66.

66.

46.

06.

27.

07.

96.

85.

85.

55.

56.

16.

35.

64.

63.

01.

91.

20.

70.

20.

010

0.0

2022

6.6

6.6

6.6

6.1

6.0

6.8

7.8

7.2

6.0

5.4

5.5

5.8

6.2

5.6

4.6

3.2

2.0

1.2

0.6

0.2

0.0

100.

0

2023

6.5

6.6

6.7

6.2

6.0

6.6

7.7

7.5

6.1

5.4

5.5

5.6

6.1

5.5

4.6

3.4

2.0

1.2

0.6

0.2

0.0

100.

020

246.

56.

66.

76.

26.

16.

47.

57.

76.

45.

45.

55.

46.

05.

54.

63.

52.

11.

20.

60.

20.

010

0.0

2025

6.4

6.6

6.7

6.3

6.0

6.3

7.3

7.8

6.6

5.4

5.4

5.3

5.8

5.6

4.7

3.5

2.1

1.2

0.6

0.2

0.0

100.

020

266.

46.

66.

76.

56.

16.

17.

17.

96.

85.

75.

35.

15.

65.

64.

83.

72.

21.

20.

60.

20.

010

0.0

2027

6.3

6.6

6.7

6.6

6.2

6.0

6.9

7.8

7.1

5.8

5.2

5.2

5.3

5.5

4.8

3.7

2.4

1.2

0.6

0.2

0.0

100.

0

2028

6.2

6.5

6.6

6.8

6.2

6.0

6.7

7.7

7.4

6.0

5.2

5.1

5.1

5.5

4.8

3.7

2.5

1.3

0.6

0.2

0.0

100.

020

296.

26.

56.

76.

86.

36.

06.

57.

57.

56.

25.

15.

14.

95.

34.

83.

82.

61.

30.

60.

20.

010

0.0

2030

6.1

6.4

6.7

6.8

6.4

6.0

6.4

7.3

7.7

6.4

5.2

5.0

4.8

5.2

4.8

3.9

2.7

1.4

0.6

0.2

0.0

100.

020

316.

16.

46.

76.

86.

56.

16.

27.

17.

86.

65.

44.

94.

75.

04.

93.

92.

81.

40.

60.

20.

010

0.0

2032

6.0

6.3

6.6

6.7

6.7

6.1

6.1

6.9

7.6

6.9

5.6

4.9

4.7

4.7

4.8

3.9

2.8

1.5

0.6

0.2

0.0

100.

0

2033

6.0

6.2

6.6

6.7

6.8

6.2

6.1

6.7

7.6

7.2

5.7

4.9

4.6

4.6

4.7

3.9

2.8

1.7

0.7

0.2

0.0

100.

020

346.

06.

26.

66.

76.

86.

26.

16.

57.

47.

36.

04.

84.

74.

44.

73.

92.

91.

70.

70.

20.

010

0.0

2035

6.0

6.1

6.5

6.7

6.8

6.4

6.1

6.4

7.2

7.5

6.2

4.9

4.6

4.3

4.5

4.0

3.0

1.8

0.7

0.2

0.1

100.

020

366.

06.

16.

46.

76.

86.

56.

26.

37.

07.

66.

35.

14.

54.

24.

34.

03.

01.

90.

80.

20.

110

0.0

2037

6.0

6.0

6.4

6.7

6.8

6.6

6.3

6.2

6.9

7.4

6.6

5.2

4.5

4.2

4.1

4.0

3.0

1.9

0.8

0.2

0.1

100.

0

2038

6.0

6.0

6.3

6.7

6.8

6.7

6.3

6.1

6.7

7.4

6.9

5.4

4.5

4.2

4.0

3.9

3.0

1.9

0.9

0.2

0.1

100.

0

DAT

A SO

UR

CE:

MAN

ITO

BA

BU

REA

U O

F ST

ATIS

TIC

S

AUG

UST

201

5



_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

- 32 -

Tabl

e 8

PR

OJE

CTE

D P

OPU

LATI

ON

BY

SEX

AND

AG

E: S

OU

THW

EST

(F

EMAL

ES A

S A

PER

CEN

TAG

E O

F M

ALES

)

AGE

0-4

5-9

10-1

415

-19

20-2

425

-29

30-3

435

-39

40-4

445

-49

50-5

455

-59

60-6

465

-69

70-7

475

-79

80-8

485

-89

90-9

495

-99

100+

TOTA

L

YEAR

2013

93.4

95.8

97.8

98.5

88.1

93.5

96.9

103.

910

7.9

97.5

98.4

102.

099

.410

0.5

115.

512

0.3

133.

715

7.3

224.

539

3.9

528.

610

1.7

2014

93.6

95.5

96.2

99.8

89.2

92.7

95.3

105.

010

7.0

97.5

99.5

100.

199

.510

3.9

111.

312

2.8

132.

615

2.5

218.

837

0.9

542.

910

1.5

2015

93.8

95.2

95.2

99.5

90.7

91.2

95.5

103.

310

8.0

97.7

101.

599

.898

.110

5.2

110.

811

8.0

137.

414

5.6

212.

634

7.6

500.

010

1.4

2016

94.9

95.3

93.4

99.5

92.0

89.9

96.5

99.3

109.

010

0.3

101.

399

.898

.810

3.0

108.

012

4.8

130.

714

9.1

204.

933

6.1

512.

510

1.2

2017

95.2

94.3

93.7

99.0

93.3

89.8

95.4

97.9

107.

710

3.6

100.

599

.410

1.8

100.

710

7.1

124.

212

8.2

149.

720

0.8

325.

047

7.8

101.

1

2018

95.9

93.6

95.3

96.5

95.7

88.4

95.0

97.6

104.

910

7.5

98.0

98.8

103.

610

1.5

104.

212

4.6

129.

715

3.1

186.

330

9.0

500.

010

1.0

2019

95.8

93.8

95.0

95.1

97.0

89.4

94.0

96.1

105.

810

6.7

97.9

99.9

101.

710

1.6

107.

611

9.7

132.

415

1.1

179.

929

9.0

436.

410

0.8

2020

95.8

94.0

94.9

94.3

96.8

90.9

92.5

96.2

104.

010

7.7

98.1

102.

010

1.3

100.

210

8.9

118.

812

7.0

155.

617

1.0

289.

140

0.0

100.

720

2195

.994

.994

.992

.697

.092

.391

.397

.010

0.2

108.

510

0.6

101.

710

1.3

100.

810

6.6

115.

913

4.2

147.

017

5.4

274.

039

3.3

100.

620

2295

.895

.294

.092

.996

.693

.591

.196

.098

.710

7.2

103.

810

0.9

100.

810

3.8

104.

111

4.6

133.

314

4.1

176.

526

7.9

376.

510

0.5

2023

95.8

95.8

93.4

94.5

94.4

95.8

89.7

95.5

98.3

104.

610

7.6

98.3

100.

310

5.7

104.

811

1.4

133.

514

5.7

178.

824

4.3

357.

910

0.4

2024

95.9

95.9

93.6

94.3

93.3

97.1

90.7

94.6

96.8

105.

310

6.8

98.2

101.

410

3.6

104.

811

4.9

128.

014

8.4

175.

323

4.2

347.

610

0.3

2025

95.8

95.8

93.7

94.1

92.5

96.9

92.2

93.1

96.8

103.

710

7.7

98.4

103.

410

3.2

103.

311

6.2

126.

614

1.7

178.

822

1.0

321.

710

0.2

2026

95.8

95.9

94.6

94.2

91.0

97.1

93.4

91.9

97.6

100.

010

8.5

100.

910

3.0

103.

110

3.8

113.

512

3.5

149.

316

8.1

228.

131

2.5

100.

120

2795

.895

.894

.993

.491

.496

.794

.691

.896

.698

.610

7.2

104.

010

2.2

102.

610

6.9

110.

612

1.9

147.

516

4.2

228.

330

8.0

100.

0

2028

95.8

95.8

95.5

92.9

92.8

94.7

96.8

90.5

96.1

98.3

104.

610

7.8

99.6

102.

010

8.7

111.

211

8.4

147.

816

6.0

227.

427

8.6

99.9

2029

95.8

95.8

95.5

93.0

92.7

93.5

98.0

91.4

95.2

96.8

105.

410

7.0

99.5

103.

110

6.6

111.

212

2.1

140.

716

7.8

219.

126

0.0

99.8

2030

95.8

95.8

95.5

93.2

92.5

92.8

97.9

92.8

93.8

96.9

103.

710

7.9

99.6

105.

110

6.0

109.

412

3.1

138.

215

9.6

222.

625

0.0

99.7

2031

95.8

95.8

95.5

94.0

92.7

91.4

98.0

94.0

92.6

97.6

100.

110

8.7

102.

110

4.6

105.

810

9.9

120.

113

5.0

167.

520

6.4

253.

199

.720

3295

.895

.895

.594

.391

.991

.797

.795

.192

.596

.698

.810

7.4

105.

310

3.8

105.

211

2.9

116.

713

3.0

164.

220

1.6

251.

599

.6

2033

95.8

95.8

95.5

94.8

91.5

93.1

95.8

97.1

91.3

96.2

98.5

104.

710

9.1

101.

010

4.6

114.

711

7.1

128.

816

3.9

203.

124

8.5

99.5

2034

95.8

95.8

95.5

94.8

91.7

92.9

94.7

98.2

92.2

95.3

97.0

105.

510

8.2

100.

910

5.7

112.

311

7.1

132.

515

5.4

203.

623

2.4

99.4

2035

95.8

95.8

95.5

94.9

91.8

92.8

94.0

98.2

93.5

93.9

97.0

103.

910

9.0

100.

910

7.6

111.

411

5.0

133.

215

1.1

190.

622

7.8

99.3

2036

95.8

95.8

95.5

94.9

92.6

92.9

92.7

98.3

94.6

92.8

97.8

100.

210

9.8

103.

410

7.0

111.

011

5.2

129.

614

7.5

199.

321

5.4

99.3

2037

95.8

95.8

95.5

94.8

92.9

92.2

92.9

98.0

95.7

92.7

96.8

98.9

108.

510

6.6

106.

011

0.3

118.

112

5.2

144.

719

4.4

209.

899

.2

2038

95.8

95.8

95.5

94.8

93.4

91.8

94.2

96.2

97.6

91.4

96.4

98.5

105.

811

0.4

103.

110

9.6

119.

912

5.3

140.

019

2.4

207.

099

.1

DAT

A SO

UR

CE:

MAN

ITO

BA

BU

REA

U O

F ST

ATIS

TIC

S

AUG

UST

201

5



_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

- 33 -

Tabl

e 9

PR

OJE

CTED

PO

PULA

TIO

N BY

SEX

AND

AG

E

SOUT

HWES

T(IN

000

'S)

FEM

ALE

M

ALE

BO

TH S

EXES

AG

E0

- 14

15 -

6465

+TO

TAL

MED

IAN

0 - 1

415

- 64

65+

TOTA

LM

EDIA

N0

- 14

15 -

64 6

5+TO

TAL

MED

IAN

AGE

AGE

AGE

YEAR

2013

9.7

36.1

10.6

56.4

41

.0

10.2

36.8

8.5

55.5

38

.4

19.9

72.8

19

.1

11

1.8

39.7

20

149.

9

36

.3

10

.8

56

.9

40.8

10

.4

37

.0

8.

7

56

.1

38.1

20

.3

73

.3

19.5

113.

039

.5

2015

10.0

36.5

10.9

57.5

40

.7

10.6

37.2

8.9

56.7

37

.8

20.6

73.7

19

.8

11

4.2

39.3

2016

10.2

36.7

11.1

58.0

40

.6

10.8

37.4

9.1

57.3

37

.6

21.1

74.0

20

.2

11

5.3

39.1

2017

10.5

36.9

11.2

58.6

40

.4

11.1

37.5

9.4

57.9

37

.4

21.6

74.4

20

.6

11

6.5

38.9

2018

10.7

37.0

11.4

59.1

40

.2

11.3

37.7

9.6

58.6

37

.3

22.0

74.7

21

.0

11

7.7

38.7

2019

10.9

37.2

11.7

59.8

40

.0

11.5

38.0

9.8

59.3

37

.3

22.4

75.1

21

.5

11

9.0

38.6

2020

11.1

37.4

11.9

60.4

39

.8

11.7

38.1

10.1

60.0

37

.2

22.8

75.5

22

.0

12

0.4

38.5

2021

11.3

37.6

12.1

61.0

39

.7

11.9

38.4

10.4

60.7

37

.2

23.3

76.0

22

.5

12

1.7

38.4

2022

11.5

37.8

12.4

61.7

39

.7

12.1

38.6

10.6

61.4

37

.3

23.7

76.4

23

.1

12

3.1

38.4

2023

11.7

38.0

12.7

62.4

39

.6

12.3

39.0

10.9

62.1

37

.4

24.0

77.0

23

.6

12

4.5

38.5

2024

11.8

38.3

12.9

63.0

39

.7

12.5

39.3

11.1

62.9

37

.5

24.3

77.5

24

.1

12

5.9

38.6

2025

12.0

38.5

13.2

63.7

39

.8

12.6

39.6

11.5

63.6

37

.7

24.5

78.1

24

.7

12

7.3

38.7

20

2612

.1

38

.8

13

.5

64

.4

39.9

12

.6

39

.9

11

.7

64

.3

37.9

24

.7

78

.8

25.2

128.

738

.9

2027

12.1

39.2

13.7

65.0

40

.0

12.7

40.3

12.0

65.0

38

.1

24.8

79.5

25

.7

13

0.0

39.0

2028

12.2

39.5

14.0

65.7

40

.2

12.8

40.8

12.2

65.7

38

.3

25.0

80.3

26

.1

13

1.4

39.2

20

2912

.3

39

.9

14

.2

66

.3

40.3

12

.8

41

.2

12

.4

66

.4

38.5

25

.1

81

.1

26.6

132.

839

.4

2030

12.3

40.2

14.4

67.0

40

.4

12.9

41.7

12.6

67.1

38

.6

25.2

81.9

27

.0

13

4.1

39.5

20

3112

.4

40

.7

14

.5

67

.6

40.6

12

.9

42

.2

12

.7

67

.8

38.8

25

.3

82

.8

27.3

135.

539

.7

2032

12.4

41.2

14.6

68.3

40

.7

13.0

42.7

12.8

6 8.5

38

.9

25.4

84.0

27

.4

13

6.8

39.8

2033

12.5

41.8

14.6

68.9

40

.8

13.0

43.3

12.9

69.3

39

.1

25.5

85.1

27

.5

13

8.2

39.9

2034

12.5

42.3

14.8

69.6

40

.8

13.1

43.9

13.0

70.0

39

.1

25.6

86.1

27

.8

13

9.5

40.0

2035

12.6

42.8

14.9

70.2

40

.9

13.1

44.4

13.1

70.7

39

.2

25.7

87.2

28

.0

14

0.9

40.1

2036

12.6

43.2

15.0

70.9

41

.0

13.2

45.0

13.2

71.4

39

.2

25.8

88.2

28

.2

14

2.2

40.1

2037

12.7

43.6

15.2

71.5

41

.0

13.3

45.6

13.3

72.1

39

.3

26.0

89.2

28

.5

14

3.6

40.2

2038

12.8

44.1

15.3

72.2

41

.1

13.3

46.1

13.3

72.8

39

.3

26.1

90.3

28

.6

14

5.0

40.2

DATA

SO

URCE

: MAN

ITO

BA B

UREA

U O

F ST

ATIS

TICS

AU

GUS

T 20

15



_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

- 34 -

Tabl

e 10

PR

OJE

CTED

PO

PULA

TIO

N BY

SEX

AND

AG

E

SOUT

HWES

T(P

ERC

ENT

OF

TOTA

L)

FEM

ALE

M

ALE

BO

TH S

EXES

AG

E0

- 14

15 -

6465

+TO

TAL

0 - 1

415

- 64

65+

TOTA

L0

- 14

15 -

64 6

5+TO

TAL

YEAR

2013

17.2

64.0

18.8

10

0.0

18.4

66.3

15

.4

100.

017

.865

.1

17.1

10

0.0

2014

17.4

63.7

18.9

10

0.0

18.5

65

.9

15.5

10

0.0

17.9

64.8

17

.2

100.

020

1517

.563

.519

.0

100.

018

.7

65.6

15

.7

100.

018

.164

.6

17.4

10

0.0

2016

17.7

63.2

19.1

10

0.0

18.9

65

.2

15.9

10

0.0

18.3

64.2

17

.5

100.

020

1717

.963

.019

.2

100.

019

.164

.7

16.2

10

0.0

18.5

63.8

17

.7

100.

0

2018

18.1

62.6

19.3

10

0.0

19.3

64.4

16

.4

100.

018

.763

.5

17.9

10

0.0

2019

18.2

62.2

19.6

10

0.0

19.4

64

.0

16.6

10

0.0

18.8

63.1

18

.1

100.

020

2018

.461

.919

.7

100.

019

.5

63.6

16

.9

100.

019

.062

.7

18.3

10

0.0

2021

18.6

61.6

19.9

10

0.0

19.6

63.3

17

.1

100.

019

.162

.4

18.5

10

0.0

2022

18.7

61.2

20.1

10

0.0

19.8

62

.9

17.3

10

0.0

19.2

62.1

18

.7

100.

0

2023

18.7

60.9

20.4

10

0.0

19.8

62.7

17

.510

0.0

19.3

61.8

18

.9

100.

020

2418

.860

.720

.5

100.

019

.862

.5

17.7

10

0.0

19.3

61.6

19

.1

100.

020

2518

.860

.520

.7

100.

019

.8

62.2

18

.0

100.

019

.361

.4

19.4

10

0.0

2026

18.7

60.3

20.9

10

0.0

19.6

62

.1

18.3

10

0.0

19.2

61.2

19

.6

100.

020

2718

.760

.221

.1

100.

019

.5

62.0

18

.4

100.

019

.161

.1

19.8

10

0.0

2028

18.6

60.2

21.2

100.

019

.462

.1

18.5

10

0.0

19.0

61.1

19

.9

100.

020

2918

.560

.121

.4

100.

019

.362

.1

18.6

10

0.0

18.9

61.1

20

.0

100.

020

3018

.460

.121

.5

100.

019

.262

.1

18.7

10

0.0

18.8

61.1

20

.1

100.

020

3118

.360

.221

.5

100.

019

.1

62.1

18

.8

100.

018

.761

.2

20.1

10

0.0

2032

18.2

60.4

21.4

10

0.0

19.0

62.3

18

.7

100.

018

.661

.4

20.0

10

0.0

2033

18.1

60.6

21.2

10

0.0

18.8

62

.5

18.6

10

0.0

18.5

61.6

19

.9

100.

020

3418

.060

.821

.2

100.

018

.762

.7

18.6

10

0.0

18.4

61.7

1 9

.9

100.

020

3517

.960

.921

.2

100.

018

.6

62.9

18

.6

100.

018

.261

.9

19.9

10

0.0

2036

17.8

61.0

21.2

10

0.0

18.5

63.0

18

.5

100.

018

.262

.0

19.8

10

0.0

2037

17.7

61.0

21.2

10

0.0

18.4

63

.2

18.4

10

0.0

18.1

62.1

19

.8

100.

0

2038

17.7

61.1

21.2

10

0.0

18.3

63

.4

18.3

10

0.0

18.0

62.2

19

.8

100.

0

DATA

SO

URCE

: MAN

ITO

BA B

UREA

U O

F ST

ATIS

TICS

AU

GUS

T 20

15



_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

- 35 -



_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

- 36 -

APPENDIX D

GLOSSARY



_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

- 37 -

GLOSSARY

Age Specific Fertility Rate. Age specific fertility rates (ASFR) indicate the number of births per woman in a given age group.

Age Specific Survival Rate. For an individual that has survived to a given age, age specific survival rates indicate the probability of surviving at least one more year. By definition, the survival rate plus the mortality rate for a given age equals 1. Generally, age specific survival rates are calculated using a life table.

Base Population. The population provided for use as the starting point for a population projection.

Emigration. Emigration measures the outflow of Canadian citizens or landed immigrants leaving Canada to establish a permanent residence in a foreign country.

Immigration. Immigration measures the inflow of landed immigrants, i.e. people that are not Canadian citizens by birth, but have been granted the right to permanently live in Canada.

International Migration. In this report, international migration measures the movements of individuals changing their usual place of residence between Canada and a foreign country. A distinction is made between immigration, emigration, and other international migration. For the purposes of this report, net international migration is defined to be immigration minus emigration.

Interprovincial Migration. Interprovincial migration measures the movements of individuals changing their usual place of residence between one province or territory and another. In migration measures the flow of individuals to a province/territory, while out migration measures the flow from a province/territory. Net interprovincial migration is defined to be interprovincial in migration minus interprovincial out migration.

Intraprovincial Migration. Intraprovincial migration measures the movements of individuals changing their usual place of residence between regions of the province. In migration measures the flow of individuals to a region, while out migration measures the flow from a region. Net intraprovincial migration is defined to be intraprovincial in migration minus intraprovincial out migration.

Life Expectancy at Birth. Calculated using a life table, life expectancy at birth indicates the average number of years remaining to be lived by an individual just born.

Life Table. A life table is, in essence, one form of combining mortality rates of a population at different ages into a single statistical model. Generally, data for each gender is shown separately on the same table. Life tables are principally used to measure the level of mortality of the population being investigated. The resulting life expectancies at various age groups indicate the average number of years remaining to be lived by those surviving to that age cohort.

Linear Interpolation. A method of filling in missing data, linear interpolation assumes straight line growth between two given data points.



_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

- 38 -

Median Age. The median age of the population in a certain year is the age at which half the people are older, and half are younger.

Natural Increase (Natural Change). The natural change is defined to be the number of births minus the number of deaths. In Manitoba, this usually results in a positive number, or natural increase.

Net Temporary Emigration. Net temporary emigration represents the variation in people living temporarily abroad that have not maintained a usual place of residence in Canada.

Net Non-permanent Residents. The number of net non-permanent residents is equal to the difference in the number of non-permanent residents between two dates. The majority of non-permanent residents are students and temporary workers, while the remainder are refugee status claimants, people with ministerial permits and non-Canadian born dependants of refugee claimants or permit holders.

Other International Migration. Other international migration is comprised of the net change in non-permanent residents, plus returning emigrants, less net temporary emigrants.

Provincial Nominee Program. The Manitoba Provincial Nominee Program is a free economic immigration program that expedites the processing of skilled workers planning to stay in Manitoba as permanent residents, by selecting nominees based on local labour market needs.

Raking. When life tables are constructed, having an age group with zero deaths will result in an error. Raking is used to take a very small number of deaths from surrounding age groups, and add them to age groups with zero deaths. This eliminates the zeros from the death data with as little impact on the life table as possible.

Regional Cohort Component Model. The Regional Cohort Component Model is used to project the births, deaths and population for a given region on a single year of age and gender basis. Specific equations, in combination with assumptions made about the components of demographic change such as fertility, mortality and migration, are used to project regional data. Provincial totals for births, deaths and population are then aggregated from the regional results.

Returning Emigrants. Returning emigrants are people that have previously emigrated and then subsequently returned to Canada.

Total Fertility Rate. The total fertility rate (TFR) indicates the average number of children a woman could be expected to have if the current age specific fertility rates (ASFR) continued over her entire reproductive period. By convention, fertility rates are calculated for the female population between the ages of 15 and 49. By definition, the total fertility rate for a given region is equal to the sum of the age specific fertility rates for that region.

Total Net Migration. Total net migration is defined to be the sum of net intraprovincial, net interprovincial, net international and other international migration.



_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

- 39 -

mbs2015-3c sw fall2014 · the following year). occasionally, this report makes use of census year...

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