may 10 2012 chair of enes board coordinator of is-enes · is-enes, circle2 eranet and eea data...
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ENEShtt //http://enes.org
A network of European groups in climate/Earth system modelingLaunched in 2001 by Guy Brasseur (MOU)
M h 40 f d i bli d i d i l ldMore than 40 groups from academic, public and industrial world
Main focus : discuss strategy to accelerate progress in li t /E th t d lli d d t diclimate/Earth system modelling and understanding
Several EU projectsSeveral EU projectsFP6: PRISM, FP6: ENSEMBLES,
FP7: METAFOR, COMBINE, IS-ENES, EUCLIPSE, EMBRACEIS-ENES2, SPECSIS ENES2, SPECS
Collaboration with PRACE
Scientific Board : S Joussaume J C André J Mitchell T Palmer Scientific Board : S. Joussaume, J.C. André, J. Mitchell, T. Palmer, J. Marotzke, R. Budich, A. Navarra, P. Kabat, B. Lawrence
IS-ENES : Infrastructure for ENES IS-ENES : Infrastructure for ENES FP7 project « Integrating Activities »
1rst phase: 2009-20122nd phase: 2013 2016
http://is.enes.org/
2nd phase: 2013-2016
Infrastructure :Models and their environment
Users : The ENES communityModels and their environment
Model dataInterface with HPC ecosystem
The ENES communityRegional climate models
Impact studies
Europe : 7 global climate modelsCMCC, COSMOS, EC-Earth, Hadley, IPSL, Meteo-France , NorESM
Support to international databases : CMIP5 & CORDEX
Objectives:Foster the integration of the European ESM communityFoster the development of ESMs pFoster high-end simulations Foster application of ESM simulations for climate change impacts
Foresight exercice to prepare the strategy
Foresight meetingsMontvillargennes, March 2010 & Hamburg, Feb 2011
Writing team: J. Mitchell, R. Budich, S. Joussaume, B. Lawrence & J. Marotzke
52 contributors from BE, CZ, DE, DK, FI, FR, IT, NO, SE, SP, UK
Drivers : Science & Society
From understanding to the development of “Climate Services”
K i tiKey science questionsWhat is needed to provide reliable predictions of regional changes in
climate? How predictable is climate ? What is the sensitivity of climate (feedbacks, nonlinear behaviours) ? C d l d d t d l i l i t l i l l ? Can we model and understand glacial-interglacial cycles ? Can we attribute observed signals and understand processes ?
Infrastructure Strategy Roadmap
A grand Challenge : g gtowards 1 km scale global model
Issues:Resolving deep convective cloudsAvoiding regional model biases
P.L. Vidale pers comm
Infrastructure Strategy Roadmap
Another important Challenge : Estimate uncertaintiesEstimate uncertainties
Issues: Internal : decadal predictionp
Model: need for diversityScenarios: socio-economic issue
internali
20 40 60 80 yrs
scenario
d lmodelHawkins and Sutton, BAMS, 2009
Infrastructure Strategy Roadmap
For both Challenges:
Very demanding on high-Very demanding on high-performance computing
Need large data storage
EO, Data Assim
Revisit climate models
Data Assim.
Infrastructure Strategy Roadmap
RECOMMANDATIONS
HPCAccess to world-class HPC
d d f li l d di d liadapted for climate at least up to dedicated to climateNeed for an integrated HPC ecosystem: European & NationalCollaborate with PRACE EU InfrastructureC C
MODELSMODELS
Strengthen European collaboration for model developmentSt e gt e u opea co abo at o o ode deve op e tMaintain scientific diversity but harmonise technical developments
Prepare models for future HPC architectures (highly parallel)Improve model parameterisations
8
Temperature change (°C)Historical and RCP8.5 – European models
IPSLCMIP5
6
4METOHADGEM2
2
MPI M0
MPI-M
1850 1900 1950 210020502000
CNRMClimate change projections
UIB
CMIP5: Strong international effort
C 8 5 NORESMRCP8.5(2021-2040) minus (1986-2000)
8
Temperature change (°C)Historical and RCP8.5 – European models
IPSLCMIP5
6
4METOHADGEM2
2
MPI M0
MPI-M
1850 1900 1950 210020502000
CNRMClimate change projections
UIB
CMIP5: Strong international effort
C 8 5 NORESMRCP8.5(2021-2040) minus (1986-2000)
Decadal prediction
Jan-Nov 2011 predicted temperature anomalies, start date 1 Jan 2011
D S ith d A S if
No initialisation
D. Smith and A. Scaife
J. Marotzke pers comm
IS-ENES, Circle2 Eranet and EEAData needs for the impact community
Copenhaguen 11-12 january 2011Copenhaguen, 11 12 january 2011
Access to both global and regional climate change simulations
Need for processing tools and processed data
Provide guidance on uncertainties and how to use climate models resultsProvide guidance on uncertainties and how to use climate models results
Eventually provide different sources of information in one linked system (virtual portal)(virtual portal)
Improve access to data and training
IS-ENESENES Portal Interface for the Climate Impact Communities
Infrastructure Strategy Roadmap
DATADATAIntegrate distributed databases
CMIP5 & CORDEX, metadata & common standardsLarge data storage commensurate with HPCDevelop interoperability with observationsDevelop interface with the impact communities
WORKFORCE
Develop interface with the impact communities
Strengthen the network: Share developmentsDevelop training: Earth System science, computingN d f hNeed for human resources
ENES: Develop the European infrastructure for climate modellingwithin international collaboration
Infrastructure strategy for ENESfor the next 10 yearsfor the next 10 years
Recommandations:
1) Access to world-class HPC for climate
2) Develop the next generation of climate models
3) Set up data infrastructure (global and regional models) for large range of users from impact communityrange of users from impact community
4) Improve physical network (eg link national archives)
5) Strengthen european expertise and networking5) Strengthen european expertise and networking
Input to IS-ENES2
ENESENESTowards a European Climate Infrastructure Initiative :
a sustainable virtual laboratory
IS-ENES2 Second Phase of ENES InfrastructureSecond Phase of ENES InfrastructureNew proposal submitted 23 Nov 2011
4 years /2013-2016
Objectives:Foster the integration of the European ESM community
Governance, update of strategy (evaluation), training
Foster the development of ESMs pNetwork on future models, stimulate common developments
Service on ESMs
Foster high-end simulations Prepare multi-model, multi member HR simulations,
prepare for exascale develop coupled benchmarksprepare for exascale, develop coupled benchmarks
Foster application of ESM simulations for climate change impactsimpactsDissemination of global & regional model data, portal for impact
community, enhance interactions with users (incl corporates)
Infrastructure Strategy Roadmap
A grand Challenge : A grand Challenge : towards 1 km scale
global climate model
h //
Access to distributed ESM data networkCMIP5 experiments
http://is.enes.org
IPSL
EC-EARTHEU FP7 : IS-ENES E
CNRM& METAFOR
CMCC
NORESM
Earth System GridAdapted from Taylor,
WGCM, 2010
Requested : 2.3 Pb
Earth Syst m Gr ,