maximising retirement income
TRANSCRIPT
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MAXIMISING RETIREMENT INCOME
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DisclaimerNote: Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.
The information contained in this presentation is for information purposes only and has been prepared for use in conjunction with a verbal presentation and should be read in that context. Plato Investment Management Limited ABN 77 120 730 136 (‘Plato’) AFSL 504616.
Any opinions or forecasts reflect the judgment and assumptions of Plato and its representatives on the basis of information at the date of publication and may later change without notice. Any projections contained in this presentation are estimates only and may not be realised in the future. The information is not intended as a securities recommendation or statement of opinion intended to influence a person or persons in making a decision in relation to investment. This communication is for general information only. It has been prepared without taking account of any person’s objectives, financial situation or needs. Any persons relying on this information should obtain professional advice relevant to their particular circumstances, needs and investment objectives.Interests in the Plato Australian Shares Income Fund (ARSN 152 590 157) and Plato Global Shares Income Fund (ARSN 608 130 838) (‘Funds’) are issued by Pinnacle Fund Services Limited ABN 29 082 494 362 AFSL
238371. Pinnacle Fund Services Limited is not licensed to provide financial product advice. A copy of the most recent Product Disclosure Statement (‘PDS’) of the Funds can be located at www.plato.com.au/retail-funds/. You should consider the current PDS in its entirety and consult your financial adviser before making an investment decision.
Pinnacle Fund Services Limited and Plato believe the information contained in this communication is reliable, however its accuracy, reliability or completeness is not guaranteed and persons relying on this information do so at their own risk. Subject to any liability which cannot be excluded under the Competition and Consumer Act 2010 and the Corporations Act, Plato and Pinnacle Fund Services Limited disclaim all liability to any person relying on the information contained in this communication in respect of any loss or damage (including consequential loss or damage), however caused, which may be suffered or arise directly or indirectly in respect of such information.
Unauthorised use, copying, distribution, replication, posting, transmitting, publication, display, or reproduction in whole or in part of the information contained in this document is prohibited without obtaining prior written permission from Plato. Plato and their associates may have interests in financial products mentioned in the presentation.
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Agenda
01The Big Picture on Income
02After tax investing for retirees
04Market Outlook
05Summary
03Plato Australian shares income strategy
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Who is Plato?
• Specialist in providing income solutions for Australian retirees
– Founded in 2006, based in Sydney, $6B FUM
– Award winning - retirement product innovation
• Highly experienced team
– 10 senior investment professionals, 18 years average experience, 5 PhDs, 2CFAs
– all senior team members have equity ownership – aligning interests
• Benefits of a boutique with the strength of an institution
– Part of the Pinnacle Investment Management Group (PNI:ASX >$60B FUM)
THINK INCOME THINK PLATO
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Big picture: asset class income outlook
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RBA moves cash rate to new historic low of 0.1% OFFICIAL RBA CASH RATE EXPECTATIONS – EVEN LOWER FOR LONGER
“Given the outlook, the Board is not expecting to increase the cash rate for at least three years.”
Monetary Policy Decision 3 November 2020.
Source: RBA, Plato
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RBA cash rate
Actual Forecast
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Safe assets lose you moneyNEGATIVE REAL RATES OF RETURN
Safe options = going backwards! *
Source : Plato, RBA updated to 30/4/2020 *depending on your risk profile
-$60,000
-$40,000
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Real Earnings on $1m
Real Overnight Real 1 Yr TD Real 10 Yr Bond
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Comparing the income from $100k investmentCASH VERSUS ALL ORDINARIES/S&P ASX 300 GROSS DIVIDENDS
Source: Plato, RBA, S&P, invest $100k at the start of the year, spend all income All Ords to June 2005, S&P300 thereafter
$-
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Income
Interest Gr Divs 1980 Gr Divs 1990 Gr Divs 2000 Gr Divs 2008
The above chart is intended to compare the income generated by each of the identified products. This is not intended to compare the capital returns (or any other risk) as the risk profiles of each product can and will vary. As an example, equities (including via a managed investment scheme) have a significantly greater risk of loss of capital than a term deposit.
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Comparing the capital from $100k investmentCASH VERSUS ALL ORDINARIES/S&P300 GROSS DIVIDENDS
Source: Plato, RBA, S&P, invest $100k at the start of the year, spend all income. All Ords to June 2005, S&P300 thereafter
$-
$200,000
$400,000
$600,000
$800,000
$1,000,000
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Capital Value
Equities 1980 Equities 1990 Equities 2000 Equities 2008
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Yields on all asset classes are falling
The above chart is intended to compare the income generated by each of the identified products. This is not intended to compare the capital returns (or any other risk) as the risk profiles of each product can and will vary. As an example, equities (including via a managed investment scheme) have a significantly greater risk of loss of capital than a term deposit.
Source: Plato, RBA, Bloomberg Plato income normalized to exclude impact of large buybacks in 2018/19
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Plato Aussie Income Fund (gross normalised) S&P200 Gross CashRate 12 Mth Term Deposit 3yr BBB Credit
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Asset Class Outlook for IncomeFORECAST 12 MONTH INCOME AS AT 31/12/2020
Source: Plato, Bloomberg, *RBA
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Official Overnight Cash 10 Year Aust Bonds Term Deposits* Company BBB Credit MSCI World ex Aust REITs Aust Equities (Gross)
The above forecast may not occur and you may not receive any income from any product including the Plato Fund.
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After tax investing for retirees
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Retirees are different
• Retirees are different to accumulators
• They need to live off the income from their investments:
– Investment income replaces regular salary
• They are taxed differently:
– The first $1.6m in pension phase superannuation is tax free whereas accumulation superannuation is taxed at 15%
– Labor formally dropped the franking credit policy they took to the last election on January 1
• They face longevity risk:
– Risk of outliving your investments
– Significant evidence that retirees prefer to live off income rather than significantly drawdown on capital
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$-
$200,000
$400,000
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65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 100
Balance -0.5% real Balance 4% real Balance -0.5% real +pension Balance 4% real +pension
Will a million dollars see you through retirement?RETIREMENT BALANCES WITH AND WITHOUT AGED PENSION
A million dollars may not be enough?
Source: Plato. ASFA, Dept Human Services, aihw.gov.au/reports/life-expectancy-death
Assumptions: Home-owning couple aged 65 ASFA Comfortable $61,522pa expenditure -0.5% and 4% real earnings rate on investments
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Pension phase super tax rates are different
*Source : ATO, Plato using 1 July 2020 tax rates including Medicare levy. After tax value of $1 of pre-tax return)*
Tax effectiveness depends on your tax status!
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Tax effective buy-backs are very advantageous
• A$300m off market buyback -
approximately 4% of shares on issue
• Worth 20% for pensioners for every share
successfully tendered
• 89.4% scale back
AMPOL BUYBACK – WORTH 20% AFTER TAX FOR ZERO TAX INVESTORS
Highlights value of franking credits
Source: Plato, Ampol announcement 25/1/2021.
*based on average price from 18-22/1/2021.
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Plato’s retirement income solution: Plato Australian Shares Income Strategy
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Big Aussie income stocks doing it tough!
“…Australia is poorly diversified”Source: Plato, Bloomberg S&P200
% of Gross Dividend Income 2020 Price Performance
6 STOCKS ACCOUNT FOR NEARLY HALF OF ALL DIVIDENDS
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Dividends are paid twice a year in Australia
SO WHY ADOPT A BUY AND HOLD STRATEGY?
Source: Plato, Iress
S&P/ASX 200 Index, 2019 Calendar Year S&P/ASX 200 Index, 2020 Calendar Year
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Dividend run-up effect in Australia
OPPORTUNITY TO ADD VALUE BUYING STOCKS CUM DIVIDEND
Source: Plato, Iress. Note performance includes franking credits receivable on the ex date (day+1)
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Dividend rotation combined with good value quality long term holdings provides income plus growth
Good value, quality long term holdings:
Good Value – Earnings, cash flow, EBITDA
High Quality – cash and profitability, avoid red flags
Good business momentum – EPS revisions
Predict and avoid dividend traps
Dividend capture
+ Franking capture
+ Run up capture
= Sustainable Income
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Winning by not losing - avoiding dividend trapsAGL ENERGY UP TO 11% GROSS DIVIDEND YIELD
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Beware Red Flags!
100 Red Flags
Environment
(12)
Social
(13)
Governance
(34)
Forensic Accounting
(25)
Financial Distress
(9)
Other
(34)
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-15
-10
-5
0
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6 or more 5 3 to 4 1 to 2 0 Market
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mth
s R
etu
rn (
%)
Absolute performance over the next 12 months
SOURCE: PLATO, MSCI WORLD IMI, AU PORTION, 1/1997- 8/2020… the whole is greater than the sum of the parts
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Plato Australian Shares Income Fund– before and after franking
PERFORMANCE TO 31 DECEMBER 2020 BEFORE FEES (90BPS)
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance
Excluding Franking 1 year 3 years p.a.Since
Inception p.a. (9/9/11)
Plato Income 2.4% 6.9% 10.1%
S&P/ASX200 Accumulation Index 1.4% 6.7% 9.5%
Active +1.0% +0.2% +0.6%
Including Franking 1 year 3 years p.a.Since
Inception p.a. (9/9/11)
Plato Income with Franking 4.6% 10.2% 13.0%
S&P/ASX200 Tax Exempt 2.4% 8.1% 11.1%
Active +2.2% +2.1% +1.9%
Active Difference +1.2% +1.9% +1.3%
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Chart of Plato Income Performance
Plato Aust. Shares Income Fund v S&P/ ASX200 Accumulation Series (incl. Franking Credits)
0.80
1.30
1.80
2.30
2.80
3.30
Sep-2011 Sep-2012 Sep-2013 Sep-2014 Sep-2015 Sep-2016 Sep-2017 Sep-2018 Sep-2019 Sep-2020
Plato Australian Shares Income Fund Total Net Return (incl. Franking Credits) S&P/ASX 200 Franking Credit Adjusted Daily Total Return Index (Tax Exempt)
Performance data is after fees. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance
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Plato Australian Shares Income Fund
*to 31 December 2020, after fees
2.0
Since inception realised yield*
CASH
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
7.0%
8.0%
9.0%
10.0%
RBA Cash Rate S&P/ASX 200 Fund
4.2 6.8
0.0FRANKING 1.5 2.6
DELIVERING HIGH INCOME
The above chart is intended to compare the income generated by each of the identified products. This is not intended to compare the capital returns (or any other risk) as the risk profiles of each product can and will vary. As an example, equities (including via a managed investment scheme) have a significantly greater risk of loss of capital than a term deposit.
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Plato Australian Shares Income Fund
*to 31 December 2020, after fees
0.3
12 month realised yield*
CASH
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
7.0%
RBA Cash Rate S&P/ASX 200 Fund
2.9 4.6
0.0FRANKING 0.9 1.9
DELIVERING HIGH INCOME
The above chart is intended to compare the income generated by each of the identified products. This is not intended to compare the capital returns (or any other risk) as the risk profiles of each product can and will vary. As an example, equities (including via a managed investment scheme) have a significantly greater risk of loss of capital than a term deposit.
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Market Outlook
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Dividend outlook is improvingAVERAGE % CHANCE OF DIVIDEND CUTS FOR AUSTRALIAN MARKET
Source: Plato
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TOP DIVIDEND TRAPS
BE CAREFUL LOOKING AT HISTORICAL YIELD
STOCKHIST. ANNUAL YIELD %
(31 DEC 2020)
11.0%
• COVID has impacted sectors and stocks differently:
– Tourism / Leisure
Crown Casino / Flight Centre
– Resources
South32
– Infrastructure
Sydney Airport
– Retail REITs
Scentre, Vicinity
Source: Plato, Bloomberg
6.6%
6.7%
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APRA December Update re Capital Management*“…Since July 2020, there has been an improvement in the economic outlook and stability in financial markets. For banks, there has been a strengthening in capital positions and provisioning levels, and the majority of loans that were previously granted repayment deferral have recommenced repayments. APRA has also undertaken a range of stress testing exercises that has provided assurance that the banking industry is well placed to withstand a range of downturn scenarios…
There remains a high degree of uncertainty in the outlook for the operating environment, and all entities will need to maintain vigilance and careful planning in capital management. This should include:
• caution in capital distributions, with an ongoing measured approach to dividends in this heightened risk environment
APRA expects banks and insurers to continue to moderate dividend payout ratios, and consider the use of dividend reinvestment plans (DRPs) and/or other capital management initiatives to offset the impact on capital from distributions. While APRA will no longer hold banks to a minimum level of earnings retention, the onus will be on Boards to carefully consider the sustainable rate for dividends, taking into account the outlook for profitability, capital and the economic environment.”
• https://www.apra.gov.au/capital-management-1 dated 15 December 2020
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Bank Dividend Forecasts
• Bank dividends cut an average of 60% in FY20.
• FY21 Divs to increase as earnings aren’t affected by
extra provisioning and payout ratios increase, still 25-
30% below FY19 levels.
• Unlikely to see write back of Covid-related provisions
until we see effect of JobKeeper coming off at end of
March (unknown impact on bankruptcies/bad debts).
• Potential for buybacks once we get vaccine roll-out
and greater economic stability.
IMPROVING, ALBEIT STILL LOWER THAN FY19
Highlights value of franking credits
Source: Plato, Morgans
0
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iden
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$)
Bank Dividends
ANZ CBA NAB WBC
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Australian Iron Ore Miners IRON ORE PRICE KEEPS MOVING HIGHER
STOCK 12MTH GROSS YIELD %
14.5%
8.2%
6.1%
Source: Plato, Macrobond, Macquarie Macro Strategy, Bloomberg, as at 18th Feb 2021 using reported divs for March quarter
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Australian Retailers Sales Numbers during COVIDMANY RETAILERS HAVE BEEN THRIVING DURING THE SHUTDOWN
STOCK% SALES
INCREASE/DECREASE
+24%
+23%
Source: Plato, Bloomberg, as at 18th Feb 2021
+24%
+24%
+35%
• Particular stocks have been benefiting by consumers diverting their discretionary spend from travel to goods as they spend more time at home.
• Social distancing has resulted in less trips to shopping centres and greater online purchases benefiting retails with a strong on-line offering.
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Dividend Outlook
LARGE DIVIDEND PAYERS
Source: Plato, Bloomberg, S&P200, Outlook based on Plato’s proprietary modelling and our views on the improving economy however there is no guarantee the outlook will eventuate.
GOOD UGLYBAD
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Summary
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Summary
• Interest rates to be even lower for longer
– All asset classes will deliver lower income
– Equity income actually looks relatively more attractive
• ALP has formally retracted its franking credit policy
• Dividends have been cut, but outlook improving
– APRA takes off dividend shackles
– Plato dividend cut model now back to normal
– Plato on track to deliver around 7% gross income in the next year
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PLATO AUSTRALIAN SHARES INCOME FUND – A CLASS
ABOUT THE FUND
1 July 2017 the minimum for direct (non-platform) investors is $100,000.
ABOUT THE FUND – AU60WHT00394
The Plato Australian Shares Income Fund is a long-only equity income fund managed
specifically for zero tax investors who can utilise franking credits. These investors
include, but are not limited to pension phase investors, SMSFs and charities.
BENCHMARK
S&P/ASX 200 Franking Credit Adjusted Daily Total Return Index (Tax-Exempt).
BENEFITS
▪ Investments seek to achieve after-tax income maximization, which may be attractive to pension-phase
investors/SMSFs and charities
▪ Franking credits are priced into unit price
▪ Active dividend rotation is an integral part of the investment process to alleviate permanent sector biases
▪ Highly rated and regarded by leading fund research houses, including being rated ‘Recommended’ from
Zenith Investment Partners (June 2019)
▪ One of Australia’s most highly qualified investment teams with 5 PhDs and over 135 years combined
investment experience.
RISKS
All investments carry risk. All managed investment schemes carry different types of risk which can have varying impacts on returns. Due to uncertainty in all investments, there can be no assurance that the Fund will achieve its
investment objectives. The value of your units at any point in time may be worth less than your original investment even after taking into account the reinvestment of Fund distributions. Future returns may differ from past returns.
Returns are not guaranteed, and you may lose some or all of your money. You need to consider the level of risk that you are comfortable with, taking into account factors such as your objectives, financial situation and needs. Risks can
be managed but cannot be completely eliminated. It is important to understand that: • the value of your investment may go up and down; • investment returns may vary, and future returns may be different from past returns; •
returns are not guaranteed and there is always the chance that you may lose money on any investment you make; and • laws affecting your investment may change over time, which may impact the value and returns of your
investment
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Ratings Disclaimer
THE LONSEC RATING (ASSIGNED AS FOLLOWS: PLATO AUSTRALIAN SHARES INCOME FUND — OCTOBER 2018; PLATO GLOBAL SHARES INCOME FUND — FEBRUARY 2019) PRESENTED IN THIS DOCUMENT IS PUBLISHED BY LONSEC RESEARCH PTY LTD ABN 11 151 658 561 AFSL 421 445. THE RATING IS LIMITED TO “GENERAL ADVICE” (AS DEFINED IN THE CORPORATIONS ACT 2001 (CTH)) AND BASED SOLELY ON CONSIDERATION OF THE INVESTMENT MERITS OF THE FINANCIAL PRODUCT(S). PAST PERFORMANCE INFORMATION IS FOR ILLUSTRATIVE PURPOSES ONLY AND IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE PERFORMANCE. IT IS NOT A RECOMMENDATION TO PURCHASE, SELL OR HOLD PLATO INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT LIMITED PRODUCT(S), AND YOU SHOULD SEEK INDEPENDENT FINANCIAL ADVICE BEFORE INVESTING IN THIS PRODUCT(S). THE RATING IS SUBJECT TO CHANGE WITHOUT NOTICE AND LONSEC ASSUMES NO OBLIGATION TO UPDATE THE RELEVANT DOCUMENT(S) FOLLOWING PUBLICATION. LONSEC RECEIVES A FEE FROM THE FUND MANAGER FOR RESEARCHING THE PRODUCT(S) USING COMPREHENSIVE AND OBJECTIVE CRITERIA.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION REGARDING LONSEC’S RATINGS METHODOLOGY, PLEASE REFER TO OUR WEBSITE AT: HTTP://WWW.LONSECRESEARCH.COM.AU/RESEARCH-SOLUTIONS/OUR-RATINGS
THE ZENITH INVESTMENT PARTNERS (“ZENITH”) AUSTRALIAN FINANCIAL SERVICES LICENSE NO. 226872 RATING PLATO AUSTRALIAN SHARES INCOME FUND ASSIGNED JUNE 2018 AND PLATO GLOBAL SHARES INCOME FUND ASSIGNED NOVEMBER 2018,) REFERRED TO IN THIS DOCUMENT IS LIMITED TO “GENERAL ADVICE” (AS DEFINED BY THE CORPORATIONS ACT 2001) FOR WHOLESALE CLIENTS ONLY. THIS ADVICE HAS BEEN PREPARED WITHOUT TAKING INTO ACCOUNT THE OBJECTIVES, FINANCIAL SITUATION OR NEEDS OF ANY INDIVIDUAL. IT IS NOT A SPECIFIC RECOMMENDATION TO PURCHASE, SELL OR HOLD THE RELEVANT PRODUCT(S). INVESTORS SHOULD SEEK INDEPENDENT FINANCIAL ADVICE BEFORE MAKING AN INVESTMENT DECISION AND SHOULD CONSIDER THE APPROPRIATENESS OF THIS ADVICE IN LIGHT OF THEIR OWN OBJECTIVES, FINANCIAL SITUATION AND NEEDS. INVESTORS SHOULD OBTAIN A COPY OF, AND CONSIDER THE PDS OR OFFER DOCUMENT BEFORE MAKING ANY DECISION AND REFER TO THE FULL ZENITH PRODUCT ASSESSMENT AVAILABLE ON THE ZENITH WEBSITE. ZENITH USUALLY CHARGES THE PRODUCT ISSUER, FUND MANAGER OR A RELATED PARTY TO CONDUCT PRODUCT ASSESSMENTS. FULL DETAILS REGARDING ZENITH’S METHODOLOGY, RATINGS DEFINITIONS AND REGULATORY COMPLIANCE ARE AVAILABLE ON OUR PRODUCT ASSESSMENT’S AND AT HTTP://WWW.ZENITHPARTNERS.COM.AU/REGULATORYGUIDELINES
THE RATING CONTAINED IN THIS DOCUMENT IS ISSUED BY SQM RESEARCH PTY LTD ABN 93 122 592 036. SQM RESEARCH IS AN INVESTMENT RESEARCH FIRM THAT UNDERTAKES RESEARCH ON INVESTMENT PRODUCTS EXCLUSIVELY FOR ITS WHOLESALE CLIENTS, UTILISING A PROPRIETARY REVIEW AND STAR RATING SYSTEM. THE SQM RESEARCH STAR RATING SYSTEM IS OF A GENERAL NATURE AND DOES NOT TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE PARTICULAR CIRCUMSTANCES OR NEEDS OF ANY SPECIFIC PERSON. THE RATING MAY BE SUBJECT TO CHANGE AT ANY TIME. ONLY LICENSED FINANCIAL ADVISERS MAY USE THE SQM RESEARCH STAR RATING SYSTEM IN DETERMINING WHETHER AN INVESTMENT IS APPROPRIATE TO A PERSON’S PARTICULAR CIRCUMSTANCES OR NEEDS. YOU SHOULD READ THE PRODUCT DISCLOSURE STATEMENT AND CONSULT A LICENSED FINANCIAL ADVISER BEFORE MAKING AN INVESTMENT DECISION IN RELATION TO THIS INVESTMENT PRODUCT. SQM RESEARCH RECEIVES A FEE FROM THE FUND MANAGER FOR THE RESEARCH AND RATING OF THE MANAGED INVESTMENT SCHEME.
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Pinnacle Distribution Contact Details
For further information please speak to our distribution partner; Pinnacle Investment Management
T 1300 010 311
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Retirement Solutions and Income Specialists