MATH& 146

Lesson 29

Section 4.2

Paired Data Inference

1

Textbook Prices

Are textbooks actually cheaper online? Here we

compare the price of textbooks at UCLA's

bookstore and prices at Amazon.com.

2

dept course ucla amazon diff

1 Am Ind C170 27.67 27.95 –0.28

2 Anthro 9 40.59 31.14 9.45

3 Anthro 135T 31.68 32.00 –0.32

4 Anthro 191HB 16.00 11.52 4.48

⁞ ⁞ ⁞ ⁞ ⁞ ⁞

72 Wom Std M144 23.76 18.72 5.04

73 Wom Std 285 27.70 18.22 9.48

Textbook Prices

Seventy-three UCLA courses were randomly

sampled in Spring 2010, representing less than

10% of all UCLA courses. A portion of the data is

shown below:

dept course ucla amazon diff

1 Am Ind C170 27.67 27.95 –0.28

2 Anthro 9 40.59 31.14 9.45

3 Anthro 135T 31.68 32.00 –0.32

4 Anthro 191HB 16.00 11.52 4.48

⁞ ⁞ ⁞ ⁞ ⁞ ⁞

72 Wom Std M144 23.76 18.72 5.04

73 Wom Std 285 27.70 18.22 9.483

Textbook Prices

Separate graphs for UCLA and Amazon don't

show much. It seems unclear if a price difference

exists.

4

UCLA

Amazon

Textbook Prices

Each textbook has two corresponding prices in the

data set: one for the UCLA bookstore and one for

Amazon. Therefore, each textbook price from the

UCLA bookstore has a natural correspondence

with a textbook price from Amazon.

When two sets of observations have this special

correspondence, they are said to be paired.

5

Textbook Prices

Two sets of observations are paired if each

observation in one set has a special

correspondence or connection with exactly one

observation in the other data set.

Examples of paired data include surveys of

husbands and wives, experiments on twins, and

before/after studies.

6

Textbook Prices

To analyze paired data, it is often useful to look at the

difference in outcomes of each pair of observations. In

the textbook data set, we look at the difference in

prices, which is represented as the diff variable in the

textbooks data.

7

dept course ucla amazon diff

1 Am Ind C170 27.67 27.95 –0.28

2 Anthro 9 40.59 31.14 9.45

3 Anthro 135T 31.68 32.00 –0.32

4 Anthro 191HB 16.00 11.52 4.48

⁞ ⁞ ⁞ ⁞ ⁞ ⁞

72 Wom Std M144 23.76 18.72 5.04

73 Wom Std 285 27.70 18.22 9.48

Textbook Prices

Here the differences are taken as UCLA – Amazon

for each book. It is important that we always

subtract using a consistent order; here Amazon

prices are always subtracted from UCLA prices.

8

dept course ucla amazon diff

1 Am Ind C170 27.67 27.95 –0.28

2 Anthro 9 40.59 31.14 9.45

3 Anthro 135T 31.68 32.00 –0.32

4 Anthro 191HB 16.00 11.52 4.48

⁞ ⁞ ⁞ ⁞ ⁞ ⁞

72 Wom Std M144 23.76 18.72 5.04

73 Wom Std 285 27.70 18.22 9.48

Example 1

The first difference shown in the table is computed

as 27.67 – 27.95 = –0.28. Verify the differences

are calculated correctly for observations 2 and 3.

9

dept course ucla amazon diff

1 Am Ind C170 27.67 27.95 –0.28

2 Anthro 9 40.59 31.14 9.45

3 Anthro 135T 31.68 32.00 –0.32

4 Anthro 191HB 16.00 11.52 4.48

⁞ ⁞ ⁞ ⁞ ⁞ ⁞

72 Wom Std M144 23.76 18.72 5.04

73 Wom Std 285 27.70 18.22 9.48

Example 2

Given this set of paired data:

Find:

a) The paired differences, d = A – B, for this set of

data

b) The mean of the paired differences

c) The standard deviation of the paired differences

Pairs 1 2 3 4 5

Sample A 3 6 1 4 7

Sample B 2 5 1 2 8

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Textbook Prices

A histogram of these differences is shown below.

Using differences between paired observations is a

common and useful way to analyze paired data.

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Textbook Prices

To analyze a paired data set, we use the exact

same tools that we developed earlier, only now we

apply them to the differences in the paired

observations.

Below are the summary statistics for the price

differences. There were 73 books, so there are 73

differences.

12

73 12.76 14.26

diff diff diffn x s

The Hypotheses

When the conditions are met, we are ready to test

whether the mean of paired differences is

significantly different from zero. We test the

hypotheses

H0: μdiff = 0

HA: μdiff ≠ 0 (or >, or <)

The differences are almost always compared to

zero, but they can be compared to any number.

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Example 3

State the null hypothesis, H0, and the alternative

hypothesis, HA, that would be used to test these

claims:

a) On average, there is no difference between the

readings from two inspectors on each selected

part.

b) On average, prices are cheaper at Wal-Mart

than at Fred Meyer.

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Paired Tests from Start to Finish

1) Verify you have paired data and compute the

differences.

2) State the hypotheses using μdiff.

3) Check the independence and normality conditions

for the differences.

4) Use SEdiff = to calculate the standard error

of the differences.

15

diffs n

continued

Paired Tests from Start to Finish

5) Calculate the test statistic using

6) Calculate the p-value. Use df = n – 1, where n is

the number of pairs.

• For left-tail tests, use tcdf(–999, T, df)

• For right-tail tests, use tcdf(T, 999, df)

• For two-tail tests, use tcdf(|T|, 999, df) × 2

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diff

diff

0point estimate null value xT

SE SE

continued

Paired Tests from Start to Finish

7) Compare the p-value to α and make a conclusion.

• If p-value < α, then this would be considered

enough evidence to reject H0.

• If p-value ≥ α, then this would be considered

insufficient to reject H0.

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Example 4

Can the normal model be used to describe the

distribution of ? Check to see if the differences

are independent (a simple random sample from

less than 10% of the population), the sample is

more than 30, and whether the distribution is

symmetric.

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diffx

73 12.76 14.26

diff diff diffn x s

Example 5

Is there statistical evidence of a difference in

textbook prices between UCLA and Amazon? Set

up and implement a hypothesis test with p-values

to determine whether, on average, there is a

difference between Amazon's price for a book and

the UCLA bookstore's price.

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73 12.76 14.26diff diff diffn x s

Example 6

Create a 95% confidence interval for the average

price difference between books at the UCLA

bookstore and books on Amazon.

Do your results agree with the hypothesis test of

Example 5?

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73 12.76 14.26diff diff diffn x s

Example 7

Following are the 95% confidence intervals of

UCLA – Amazon differences. Interpret each result.

a) ($9.43, $16.08)

b) (–$9.43, –$16.08)

c) (–$9.43, $16.08)

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