math 105: finite mathematics 7-5: independent...
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Introduction to Indepencence Examples Conclusion
MATH 105: Finite Mathematics7-5: Independent Events
Prof. Jonathan Duncan
Walla Walla College
Winter Quarter, 2006
Introduction to Indepencence Examples Conclusion
Outline
1 Introduction to Indepencence
2 Examples
3 Conclusion
Introduction to Indepencence Examples Conclusion
Outline
1 Introduction to Indepencence
2 Examples
3 Conclusion
Introduction to Indepencence Examples Conclusion
Conditional Probability
In the last section we saw that knowing something about one eventcan effect the probability of another event.
Example
A survey of pizza lovers asked whether the liked thick (C ) or thincrust and extra cheese (E ) or regular. You select a person atrandom. Use the results below to find Pr[C ] and Pr[C |E ].
Extra Cheese No Extra Cheese
Thick Crust 24 16 40Thin Crust 12 8 20
36 24 60
Pr[C ] =40
60=
2
3Pr[C |E ] =
24
36=
2
3
Introduction to Indepencence Examples Conclusion
Conditional Probability
In the last section we saw that knowing something about one eventcan effect the probability of another event.
Example
A survey of pizza lovers asked whether the liked thick (C ) or thincrust and extra cheese (E ) or regular. You select a person atrandom. Use the results below to find Pr[C ] and Pr[C |E ].
Extra Cheese No Extra Cheese
Thick Crust 24 16 40Thin Crust 12 8 20
36 24 60
Pr[C ] =40
60=
2
3Pr[C |E ] =
24
36=
2
3
Introduction to Indepencence Examples Conclusion
Conditional Probability
In the last section we saw that knowing something about one eventcan effect the probability of another event.
Example
A survey of pizza lovers asked whether the liked thick (C ) or thincrust and extra cheese (E ) or regular. You select a person atrandom. Use the results below to find Pr[C ] and Pr[C |E ].
Extra Cheese No Extra Cheese
Thick Crust 24 16 40Thin Crust 12 8 20
36 24 60
Pr[C ] =40
60=
2
3Pr[C |E ] =
24
36=
2
3
Introduction to Indepencence Examples Conclusion
Conditional Probability
In the last section we saw that knowing something about one eventcan effect the probability of another event.
Example
A survey of pizza lovers asked whether the liked thick (C ) or thincrust and extra cheese (E ) or regular. You select a person atrandom. Use the results below to find Pr[C ] and Pr[C |E ].
Extra Cheese No Extra Cheese
Thick Crust 24 16 40Thin Crust 12 8 20
36 24 60
Pr[C ] =40
60=
2
3Pr[C |E ] =
24
36=
2
3
Introduction to Indepencence Examples Conclusion
Independent Events
It is not always the case that information about one event changesthe probability of another event.
Independent Events
Events E and F are called independent if the probability of one isnot changed by having information about the outcome of theother. That is, Pr[E |F ] = Pr[E ]
Tests for Independence
Test for independence using the formula:
Pr[E ∩ F ] = Pr[E ] · Pr[F ]
or, use a Venn Diagram and determine if the ratio of E ∩ F to F isthe same as the ratio of E to S
Introduction to Indepencence Examples Conclusion
Independent Events
It is not always the case that information about one event changesthe probability of another event.
Independent Events
Events E and F are called independent if the probability of one isnot changed by having information about the outcome of theother. That is, Pr[E |F ] = Pr[E ]
Tests for Independence
Test for independence using the formula:
Pr[E ∩ F ] = Pr[E ] · Pr[F ]
or, use a Venn Diagram and determine if the ratio of E ∩ F to F isthe same as the ratio of E to S
Introduction to Indepencence Examples Conclusion
Independent Events
It is not always the case that information about one event changesthe probability of another event.
Independent Events
Events E and F are called independent if the probability of one isnot changed by having information about the outcome of theother. That is, Pr[E |F ] = Pr[E ]
Tests for Independence
Test for independence using the formula:
Pr[E ∩ F ] = Pr[E ] · Pr[F ]
or, use a Venn Diagram and determine if the ratio of E ∩ F to F isthe same as the ratio of E to S
Introduction to Indepencence Examples Conclusion
Outline
1 Introduction to Indepencence
2 Examples
3 Conclusion
Introduction to Indepencence Examples Conclusion
A Venn Diagram Example
Example
Let A and B be events in a sample space S such that Pr[A] = 416 ,
Pr[B] = 816 , and Pr[A ∩ B] = 2
16 . Are A and B independent?
Pr[A ∩ B] =2
16=
1
8
Pr[A]·Pr[B] =4
16· 8
16=
1
8
Independent!
Introduction to Indepencence Examples Conclusion
A Venn Diagram Example
Example
Let A and B be events in a sample space S such that Pr[A] = 416 ,
Pr[B] = 816 , and Pr[A ∩ B] = 2
16 . Are A and B independent?
A B
216
216
616
616
Pr[A ∩ B] =2
16=
1
8
Pr[A]·Pr[B] =4
16· 8
16=
1
8
Independent!
Introduction to Indepencence Examples Conclusion
A Venn Diagram Example
Example
Let A and B be events in a sample space S such that Pr[A] = 416 ,
Pr[B] = 816 , and Pr[A ∩ B] = 2
16 . Are A and B independent?
A B
216
216
616
616
Pr[A ∩ B] =2
16=
1
8
Pr[A]·Pr[B] =4
16· 8
16=
1
8
Independent!
Introduction to Indepencence Examples Conclusion
A Venn Diagram Example
Example
Let A and B be events in a sample space S such that Pr[A] = 416 ,
Pr[B] = 816 , and Pr[A ∩ B] = 2
16 . Are A and B independent?
A B
216
216
616
616
Pr[A ∩ B] =2
16=
1
8
Pr[A]·Pr[B] =4
16· 8
16=
1
8
Independent!
Introduction to Indepencence Examples Conclusion
A Venn Diagram Example
Example
Let A and B be events in a sample space S such that Pr[A] = 416 ,
Pr[B] = 816 , and Pr[A ∩ B] = 2
16 . Are A and B independent?
A B
216
216
616
616
Pr[A ∩ B] =2
16=
1
8
Pr[A]·Pr[B] =4
16· 8
16=
1
8
Independent!
Introduction to Indepencence Examples Conclusion
Independence and Tree Diagrams
Example
A fair coin is tossed twocie and events E and F are defined as:
E : Heads on the first tossF : Tails on the second toss
Are E and F independent? Use a tree diagram to find out.
Example
In a group of seeds, 13 of which should produce violets, the best
germinateion that can be obtained is 60%. If one seed is planted,what is the probability it will grow a violet? Assume the events areindependent.
Solve both using a tree diagram and a Venn diagram.
Introduction to Indepencence Examples Conclusion
Independence and Tree Diagrams
Example
A fair coin is tossed twocie and events E and F are defined as:
E : Heads on the first tossF : Tails on the second toss
Are E and F independent? Use a tree diagram to find out.
Example
In a group of seeds, 13 of which should produce violets, the best
germinateion that can be obtained is 60%. If one seed is planted,what is the probability it will grow a violet? Assume the events areindependent.
Solve both using a tree diagram and a Venn diagram.
Introduction to Indepencence Examples Conclusion
A Used Car Lot
Example
There are 16 cars on a used car lot: 10 compacts and 6 sedans.Three of the compacts are blue, the rest are red. Five of the sedansare blue and the rest are red. A car is picked at random. Are theevents of picking a sedan and picking a blue car independent?
Pr[B] =8
16=
1
2Pr[D] =
6
16=
3
8
Pr[B ∩ D] =5
166= 1
2· 3
8
These events are not independent.
Introduction to Indepencence Examples Conclusion
A Used Car Lot
Example
There are 16 cars on a used car lot: 10 compacts and 6 sedans.Three of the compacts are blue, the rest are red. Five of the sedansare blue and the rest are red. A car is picked at random. Are theevents of picking a sedan and picking a blue car independent?
Pr[B] =8
16=
1
2Pr[D] =
6
16=
3
8
Pr[B ∩ D] =5
166= 1
2· 3
8
These events are not independent.
Introduction to Indepencence Examples Conclusion
A Used Car Lot
Example
There are 16 cars on a used car lot: 10 compacts and 6 sedans.Three of the compacts are blue, the rest are red. Five of the sedansare blue and the rest are red. A car is picked at random. Are theevents of picking a sedan and picking a blue car independent?
Pr[B] =8
16=
1
2Pr[D] =
6
16=
3
8
Pr[B ∩ D] =5
166= 1
2· 3
8
These events are not independent.
Introduction to Indepencence Examples Conclusion
A Used Car Lot
Example
There are 16 cars on a used car lot: 10 compacts and 6 sedans.Three of the compacts are blue, the rest are red. Five of the sedansare blue and the rest are red. A car is picked at random. Are theevents of picking a sedan and picking a blue car independent?
Pr[B] =8
16=
1
2Pr[D] =
6
16=
3
8
Pr[B ∩ D] =5
166= 1
2· 3
8
These events are not independent.
Introduction to Indepencence Examples Conclusion
Outline
1 Introduction to Indepencence
2 Examples
3 Conclusion
Introduction to Indepencence Examples Conclusion
Important Concepts
Things to Remember from Section 7-5
1 Events A and B are independent if
Pr[A ∩ B] = Pr[A] · Pr[B]
2 Events A and B are independent if
Pr[A|B] = Pr[A]
Introduction to Indepencence Examples Conclusion
Important Concepts
Things to Remember from Section 7-5
1 Events A and B are independent if
Pr[A ∩ B] = Pr[A] · Pr[B]
2 Events A and B are independent if
Pr[A|B] = Pr[A]
Introduction to Indepencence Examples Conclusion
Important Concepts
Things to Remember from Section 7-5
1 Events A and B are independent if
Pr[A ∩ B] = Pr[A] · Pr[B]
2 Events A and B are independent if
Pr[A|B] = Pr[A]
Introduction to Indepencence Examples Conclusion
Next Time. . .
Next time we will explore conditional probabilities which are noteasily explored using tree diagrams, such as the final example seenin section 7-4.
For next time
Read section 8-1
Introduction to Indepencence Examples Conclusion
Next Time. . .
Next time we will explore conditional probabilities which are noteasily explored using tree diagrams, such as the final example seenin section 7-4.
For next time
Read section 8-1