master’s project ( ps1)

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STUDENT :SYAHIRA RAIHAN BT OON

SUPERVISOR :DR MOHD TAUFIQ B. ISHAK

CHAIRMAN :DR KOK BOON CHING

PANEL :PM. DR ZAINAL ALAM B. HARONDR DUR MUHAMMAD SOOMRO

MASTERS PROJECT ( PS1)

PRESENTATION:LIFETIME PREDICTION AND ESTIMATION

OF POWER TRANSFORMER

UNIVERSITI TUN HUSSEIN ONNMALAYSIA


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CONTENT


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INTRODUCTION


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STATEMENT OF THE PROBLEM


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OBJECTIVE OF THE RESEARCH


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SCOPE OF THE RESEARCH


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LITERATURE REVIEW


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LITERATURE REVIEW


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COMPARISON ESTIMATED DISTRIBUTION


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LITERATURE REVIEW

Journal Objective Method Outcome

Transformer LifePrediction Using Data from

Units Removed from

Service and Thermal

Modeling

i. Predict the transformer lifeby using insulating paper

from scrapped transformers

ii. Analyze for degree of

polymerization (DP)

Condition assessment:i. Dissolve Gas Analysis

ii. Degree of

polymerization

Condition based replacement meansthat statistical analysis of failure rates is

not helpful in modeling lifetimes, but

data from scrapped and failed

transformers has been used to

demonstrate that age-related failures

Evaluating Mean Life of

Power System Equipment

With Limited End of Life

Failure Data

i. Introduce two methods to

estimate the mean life of a

power system equipment

ii. Use information data

including both died and

surviving components

i. Normal Distribution

method

ii. Weibull distribution

method

The estimates of the mean life using the

normal and Weibull distribution models

are close in this case. Comparison

between the estimates using the

presented methods and the sample

mean technique, the presented methods

provide more reasonable results

Prediction of Remaining

Life of Power Transformers

Based on Left Truncated

and Right Censored

Lifetime Data

i. Prediction of the remaining

life of power transformer.

ii. Use left truncated and right

censored data

i. Log-location-scale

distribution for lifetime

model for left truncated

and right censored data.

ii. Weibull distribution

method

Better predictive model that would

more accurately predict individual

lifetimes by using environmental

information for the individual

transformers


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METHODOLOGY

General Block Diagram of


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FLOWCHART FOR PS1 PROGRESSION


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FLOWCHART FOR PS2 PROGRESSION


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ASSESSING END OF LIFE FAILURE PROBABILITY


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PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION METHOD

Relationship between failure rate and age for aNormal probability distribution

,

.

Relationship between failure rate and age for aWeibull probability distribution


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NORMAL DISTRIBUTION METHOD


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least square method to estimate the mean life

and standard deviation Ageyear

the sum of squares ofall errors

MeanStandardDeviation


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WEIBULL DISTRIBUTION METHOD


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Initial

and

obtain

Obtain byusing.

Gammafunction

StandardDeviation

Mean


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EXPECTED RESULT


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CONCLUSION


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REFERENCE


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REFERENCE


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