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1995 140.90 149.35 1996 159.95 176.60 1997 212.04 287.62 1998 225.51 342.20 1999 254.79 361.68 2000 351.08 429.65 2001 439.29 489.73 2002 477.05 548.64 2003 553.89 615.77 2004 713.11 752.49 2005 837.86 764.59 2006 1360.41 1237.01 2007 1880.49 1747.31 2008 2156.38 2462.05 2009* 1993.00 2481.30

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1995-2009 . 2009 95.4 , 93.6 328.6 64.5 . 2009 1993.0 , 95.3 5.6 , 2008 7.6 163.4 .

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1,621.3 1,437.6 260.8 281.6 132.9 190.8 461.6 466.0 1,434.0 1,252.3 241.8 265.1 132.9 190.8 315.6 320.1

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- 223.5 205.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 110.8 128.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 / 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 129.7 186.5 0.0 0.0

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. 5800 . . 2010 2,426.8 - 33.8 , 2,785.4 - 38.8 , 358.6 - 5.0 . 2010 447.8 73.1 , , . , . , , , 229.1 . 2010 116.3 , 2010 133.9 , 212.7 , 2010 334.9 . 2010 346.9 , 490.9 .

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2.2 , , , . 2009 2704877.8 28.2%, 65.4 , 84.4 .

2.2.1.

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 10.1% 12.7% 17.3% 18.0% 30% 27.5% 28.2% 28.2% 47.3% 49.6% 64.7% 65.5% 72% 67.8% 64.3% 65.4% 56.7% 58.9% 70.8% 75.8% 67.9% 68.8% 80.7% 84.6%

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2.2.2. , 2004-2009

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 1 . 206.7 233.4 239.4 245 219.1 344.2 2 . 102.7 93.7 108.3 109.9 115.7 115.3 3 . 130 126.3 129.7 130.2 126.8 129.8 4 1141 1153 1403.9 1978.3 1783.6 2408.7 5 /50%/ 22 47 - 27.5 87.5 15 6 /68%/ 77.1 78.2 182.2 244.5 141.9 38.6 7 . 6665 7517.1 8074.1 9237.6 9691.6 13163.9 8 / ./ 18500 21900 21267 18087 15184

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, . 1779 2866 3679 6722 7119 6952 5164* , .

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: 2009 1 1- 1087.7 , 4.790 , 131034 .

2.2.4. , 2005-2009 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

.3 18650 18550 18780 18430 15400 . 27550 27090 27780 27570 28200 . 25300 25500 25600 25640 25920 : 515777 537743 543190 525264 533083 2469 3022 3978.05 3795 4769 : % 0,588 0,594 0,593 0,579 0,565 % 0,0192 0,019 0,019 0,018 0,0206 : % 85,09 85,46 85,8 86,15 86,43 % 24,48 29,5 40,59 40,82 45,01 :

% 24,54 24,12 23,96 24,14 23,73

% 48,13 46,46 49,74 50,06 50,51 :

126547 129693 130160 126796 126485 1188 1404 1978.67 1900 2409 ./ 3679 6722 7118.53 6955,88 5149,74 vv

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2.3.1.

1 , ./ COP2 . USD 3 , . EXCO 4 , TAXE 5 , FTR

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1999-2009 .

2.3.2. , 1999-2009

,

,

/

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,

..

,

,

1999 254.79 1572 1072.37 119.2 7506.59 9013.4 2000 351.08 1813 1097 160.3 32910 22305.9 2001 439.29 1578 1102 147.9 15428 27018.7 2002 477.05 1560 1140 140.2 14820 24592.5 2003 553.89 1779 1168 161.7 36208 32646.7 2004 713.11 2866 1209 284.3 85839 44719.3 2005 837.86 3679 1221 326.2 91575 56974.3 2006 1360.41 6722 1165 635.4 422895 72073.8 2007 1880.49 7119 1169.97 811.5 545206.02 102480.8 2008 2156.38 6952 1267.5 835.7 576712.5 140838.7 2009* 1993 5164 1442.84 501.8 389566.8 115987.5

: , 1999-2009,

, 2000-2008 . , F , .

2.3.3. F Redundant Variables: LOG(COP) LOG(EXCO) LOG(FTR) LOG(TAXE) LOG(USD) F-statistic 71.50390 Prob. F(5,5) 0.000120 Log likelihood ratio 47.12004 Prob. Chi-Square(5) 0.000000 Test Equation: Dependent Variable: LOG(BR) Method: Least Squares Date: 05/08/10 Time: 19:22 Sample: 1999 2009 Included observations: 11

Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob. C 6.663645 0.225399 29.56382 0.0000

COP, EXCO, FTR, TAXE, USD 5 , 6 . F F(5,11-6=5) 5%- F

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5.05 . 71.5 , 5 . .

2.3.4. BR COP EXCO FTR TAXE USD Mean 1001.577 3709.455 374.9273 58968.33 201697 1186.789 Median 713.11 2866 284.3 44719.3 85839 1168 Maximum 2156.38 7119 835.7 140838.7 576712.5 1442.84 Minimum 254.79 1560 119.2 9013.4 7506.59 1072.37 Std. Dev. 714.1646 2347.291 275.8628 43544.2 230567.4 102.6562 Skewness 0.606893 0.4878 0.694192 0.699245 0.668998 1.396876 Kurtosis 1.721641 1.531695 1.90884 2.144972 1.676642 4.591667 Jarque-Bera 1.42426 1.424369 1.429195 1.231471 1.623192 4.738457 Probability 0.490598 0.490571 0.489389 0.540243 0.444149 0.093553 Sum 11017.35 40804 4124.2 648651.6 2218667 13054.68 Sum Sq. Dev. 5100311 55097737 761003.1 1.90E+10 5.32E+11 105382.9 Observations 11 11 11 11 11 11

.

2.3.5. BR COP EXCO FTR TAXE USD

BR 1 0.926571 0.937004 0.98847 0.961797 0.732382 COP 0.926571 1 0.985813 0.897585 0.975829 0.507876

EXCO 0.937004 0.985813 1 0.91852 0.986412 0.479349 FTR 0.98847 0.897585 0.91852 1 0.933789 0.752227

TAXE 0.961797 0.975829 0.986412 0.933789 1 0.534261 USD 0.732382 0.507876 0.479349 0.752227 0.534261 1

, , , , . . t . (BR vs COP)

90% 1.833 7.45 . .

.

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(BR vs EXCO)

90% 1.833 8.14 . . (BR vs FTR)

90% 1.833 21.001 . .

(BR vs TAXE)

90% 1.833 10.18 . .

(BR vs USD)

90% 1.833 3.19 . . F . Eviews 7.01 .

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2.3.1. ,

0

400

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BR

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COP

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FTR

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100000

200000

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99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09

TAXE

1000

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1200

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USD

: /1/

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/2/ :

BR , COP , ./ EXCO , .

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FTR , TAXE , USD .

2.3.1- . /2/ Eviews 7.01, 1- . 98.6 , , . - 1.92 . . 2, 3- . 2.3.4- .

2.3.4

Dependent Variable: LOG(BR) Method: Least Squares Date: 05/08/10 Time: 20:01 Sample: 1999 2009 Included observations: 11

Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob. C -1.587685 0.683144 -2.324087 0.0486

LOG(EXCO) 0.356220 0.142462 2.500453 0.0369 LOG(FTR) 0.582113 0.127506 4.565359 0.0018

R-squared 0.977920 Mean dependent var 6.663645 Adjusted R-squared 0.972400 S.D. dependent var 0.747563 S.E. of regression 0.124194 Akaike info criterion -1.106947 Sum squared resid 0.123393 Schwarz criterion -0.998430 Log likelihood 9.088206 F-statistic 177.1614 Durbin-Watson stat 1.845738 Prob(F-statistic) 0.000000

97.7 . . - 1.84 2- .

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2.3.1. ,

-.2

-.1

.0

.1

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5.5

6.0

6.5

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99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09

Residual Actual Fitted

.

Ln(BR) = -1.587684937 + 0.3562199289*Ln(EXCO) + 0.5821127939*Ln(FTR) /3/

97.7 2.3 . 1 0.35 , 1 0.58 . , . . 1. .

Wald Test: Equation: FINAL_ZAGVAR_BR

Test Statistic Value df Probability

F-statistic 12.20271 (2, 8) 0.0037 Chi-square 24.40543 2 0.0000

1- . 2. . 2- .

.

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3. . n=11, k=3 n>k 3- . 4. 2 .

Wald Test: Equation: FINAL_ZAGVAR_BR

Test Statistic Value df Probability

F-statistic 10.61496 (1, 8) 0.0116 Chi-square 10.61496 1 0.0011

. 5. 2 . Mean=0.000000000000000156 .

0.0

0.4

0.8

1.2

1.6

2.0

2.4

-0.4 -0.2 -0.0 0.2 0.4

Series: RESIDSample 1999 2009Observations 11

Mean 1.56e-16Median -0.020296Maximum 0.367994Minimum -0.397234Std. Dev. 0.246685Skewness -0.150473Kurtosis 1.841948

Jarque-Bera 0.656174Probability 0.720300

6. . Jarque-Bera JB=0.66

.

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. . 2 , Eviews 7.01 . :

/4/

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/5/

- , . 3.2.2- /6/ , .

3.3.5

Dependent Variable: LOG(BR) Method: Least Squares Date: 05/13/10 Time: 13:00 Sample: 1999 2009 Included observations: 11

Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.

C -2.553412 0.571652 -4.466724 0.0016 LOG(COP) 1.148694 0.070991 16.18075 0.0000

R-squared 0.966767 Mean dependent var 6.668930 Adjusted R-squared 0.963075 S.D. dependent var 0.759101 S.E. of regression 0.145869 Akaike info criterion -0.849254 Sum squared resid 0.191499 Schwarz criterion -0.776910 Log likelihood 6.670898 F-statistic 261.8168 Durbin-Watson stat 1.876298 Prob(F-statistic) 0.000000

96.6 . . - 1.87

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. .

Ln(BR) = -2.553411656 + 1.148694168*Ln(COP) /6/

96.6 3.4 . 1 1.15 . , .

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. ,

3.1 6000 . , , , , . 2005 1.6 950 . 2008-2009 3.1.1- .

3.1.1. ,

2008 2009*

1 5,330 5,320 160,000 2 1,270 1,260 63,000 3 247 250 38,000 4 1,310 1,190 35,000 5 651 950 31,000 6 950 960 30,000 7 430 440 26,000 8 886 900 24,000 9 750 750 20,000 10 546 655 19,000 11 420 410 18,000 12 607 520 8,000 13 2,030 2,180 70,000

15,400 15,800 540,000

: U.S. Geological Survey, Mineral Commodity Summaries, January 2010 : * - 2009

2009 33.67%- . 7.97%, 7.53%, 6.08%, 6.01%, 5.70%, 4.75%, 4.15%, 3.29%, 2.78%, 2.59%, 1.58%, 13.80%- .

.

- , . 54

3.1.1- .

: U.S. Geological Survey, Mineral Commodity Summaries, January 2010

2009 29.63%- .

: U.S. Geological Survey, Mineral Commodity Summaries, January 2010

.

- , . 55

11.67%, 7.04%, 6.48%, 5.74%, 5.56%, 4.81%, 4.44%, 3.70%, 3.52%, 3.33%, 1.48%, 12.96%- .

3.1.3. , , , 1900-

2008 : International Copper Study Group, The World Copper Factbook, 2009

1900 495.0 2008 15000 1900-2008 4%- . .

3.1.4. , , 1970-2008,

: International Copper Study Group, The World Copper Factbook, 2009

.

- , . 56

3.1.5. , , 1993-2008,


5 , 2 3.1.5- . 2008 5.3 . , . , , , . , -, , . , .

.

- , . 57

3.1.1.


3.1.1- , , , .

3.1.6. , , , 2008


2008 36%- , 15%, 10%, 9%, 5%- .

.

- , . 58

2%- 10 . , -, . 2009 2008 18%- 2008 32.8 2009 26.9 . , , , . 20 3.1.2- . 35% .

3.1.2. , , 2009

/./ 1 Escondida BHP Billiton 57.5%, Rio Tinto 30%, Japan Escondida 10%, IFC 2.5%

, 1330

2 Codelco Norte Codelco , 900 3 Grasberg P.T.Freeport Indonesia, Rio Tinto 750 4 Collahuasi Angio American 44%, Xstrata plc 44%, Mitsui+Nippon 12%

, 498

5 El Teniente Codelco Chile 440 6 Taimyr Peninsula (Norisk/Talnakh Mills) Norilsk Nickel 430

7 Antamina BHP Billiton 33.75%, Teck 22.5%, Xstrata plc 33.75%, Mitsubishi 10% 420

8 Morenci Freeport-McMoran Copper&Gold Inc/Sumitomo 400

9 Los Pelambres Antofagasta Holdings 60%, Nippon Mining 25%, Mitsubishi Materials 15% 360 10 Bingham Canyon Kennecolt 280

10 Batu Hijau PT Pukuafu Indah 20%, Newmont 45%, Sumitomo Corp 27.5%, Sumitomo Metal Mining 5%, Mitsubishi Materials 2.5%

280

12 Kansanshi First Quantum Minerals Ltd 80%, ZCCM 20% , 270

13 Andina Codelco Chile 250 14 Zhezkazgan Complex Kazakhmys(Samsung) 230 15 Los Bronces Anglo American 100% , 228

16 Olympic Dam BHP Billiton , 225 17 Rudna KGHM Polska Miedz S.A 220 18 Cananea Grupo Mexico , 210

19 Sarcheshmeh National Iranian Copper Industry Co. , 204

20 Bajo de la Alumbrera Xstrata plc 50%, Goldcorp inc 37.5%, Yamana Gold 12.5% 200


.

- , . 59

3.1.7. , , 1960-2008


1960-1995 1996-2008 . , .

3.1.8. , , , 1993-2008


1993-2004 . 2004

.

- , . 60

, , , . . .

3.1.9. , , , 1980, 2009


, , 1980 2009 3 . , . 1980 2009 . . .

3.1.3.

1983-1991 9 10.7 1992-2001 10 3.5 2002-2010 9 3.4

: , 2008

.

- , . 61

3.1.2.

: , http://mram.gov.mn/

2009 , , , , , , , . . .

3.1.4. , , , 2008 , %

6937 28.97% 1622 6.77% 768 3.21% 882 3.68% ASEAN 892 3.72% 521 2.18% 11622 48.53% 3171 13.24% 1533 6.40% 2186 9.13% 6890 28.77% 3984 16.64% 1451 6.06% 5435 22.70% 23947 100%

: /International Copper Association/

.

- , . 62

3.1.4- 48.53%- . . 2002-2008 , 20 . . .

3.1.3. , , , 2008

: /International Copper Association/

, . , . . , , .

.

- , . 63

, . . 1999-2009 .

3.1.5. , , 1999-2009

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009* 12776 13209 13636 13578 13785 14594 14924 14991 15474 15528 15744

13712 14166 14418 15068 15245 16072 16826 17141 18098 18739 19513

, % 93.2 93.2 94.6 90.1 90.4 90.8 88.7 87.5 85.5 82.9 80.7

12439 12696 13773 13442 13467 13848 14411 14678 15191 15402 15401

2130 2090 1846 1862 1759 2069 2161 2613 2743 2823 2919

14292 15136 14935 15208 15691 16839 16673 17053 18233 18056 18159 , /

1574 1814 1578 1558 1780 2868 3684 6727 7126 6952 5164

: International Copper Study Group, http://www.icsg.org/ : * -

1999-2009 . 1999-2004 90 2005 . , , , .

2009 10-12 , 2009, 2010 1- .

.

- , . 64

3.1.6. ,

2009 2010 2009 1- 10- 11- 12-

1271 1302 1362 1351 1386 1630 1683 1672 1622 1679 , % 78 77.3 81.5 83.3 82.6 1303 1331 1313 1287 1355 187 268 273 293 273 1331 1477 1497 1511 1542 , / 3221 7386 6288 6676 6982

: International Copper Study Group, http://www.icsg.org/

1900-2008 . 3.1.10. , , 1900-2009

: International Copper Study Group, The World Copper Factbook, 2009 , , 1900-2008 . 1900 500 2008 18 , 4 .

.

- , . 65

3.1.11. , , , 1993-2008


15 . 1993 2008 2 .

3.1.12. , , 1950-2008

: ICSG and U.S. Census Bureau , 2010 .

.

- , . 66

3.1.7. , 2010

2008 2009 2010 2008 2009 2010 2008 2009 2010

952 1138 1340 584 787 983 297 303 327 2189 1986 2055 2019 1764 1895 2542 2109 2223 6968 7022 7444 3770 3901 4048 578 508 520 ASEAN- 10 772 1148 1215 495 545 572 753 702 730 Asia ex Asean/CIS 1409 1423 1487 6767 6918 7530 8700 9767 9111 ASIA-CIS 531 516 519 488 447 470 103 96 99 709 736 815 2566 2492 2646 3815 3291 3690 815 807 831 1041 972 1036 1067 811 836 1043 1059 1185 502 476 495 151 136 142

15388 15835 16891 18232 18301 19675 18006 17725 17679

: International Copper Study Group, http://www.icsg.org/ 2011 20 , 30- . 2008 1 3000 . . 7, 15 , 1, 3, 6 , 1, 2, 3, 10, 15 3.1.13-3.1.22- . 3.1.13. , 3.1.14. , 15

: http://www.infomine.com/ : http://www.infomine.com/

.

- , . 67

3.1.15. , 1 3.1.16. , 3


3.1.17. , 6 3.1.18. , 1


3.1.19. , 2 3.1.20. , 3


.

- , . 68

3.1.21. , 10 3.1.22. , 15


2005 2008 1 2800 . . 2009 . 2010 04 22- 1 7670 . . 2010 04 - , 20 8000 . . 1 510,650 . 2010 04 05-11- 7,885 . , 7,805 ., 8010 . 7920 . . "Sonami" 2010 19 , . 2009 2.10 / 2010 2.50 / . "Sonami"- 2010

.

- , . 69

. - . "Rio Tinto Group" 2011 , . (International Copper Study Group, ICSG)- 2010 . ICSG- 2010 6.7 16891 , 2010 7.5 19675 2010 0.26 17679 . , , . - 26 . 2011 , . Calyon Credit Agricole CIB 2010 7500 /, 2011 8000 / . "Cochilco" 2010 5909 , 2011 6306 . Royal Bank .

3.1.8.

: Royal Bank

.

- , . 70

Bloomsbury minerals economics 2030 . 1000 . , , . . BME .

3.1.23. BME

: , http://mram.gov.mn/

, , , , . 3.2 1997 , . .

.

- , . 71

. , , . . . . . 15.8 78.5 13 . 10 50 . , . 2004 5%- 2007 25%, 2009 33.7%- . , . , , 2010-2021 3.2.1- . 2014 2019 .

.

- , . 72

3.2.1.


, , , . , , , . Ivanhoe Mines Ltd 79 , 45 60 . 2009 1- 6,45 , 45 , 1838 , 157 , 12 49 . 2010 31- . , .

.

- , . 73

: 2,6 , 25.3 , 1028 , 81 600 , 6 145 . : 3,7 , 19.6 , 810 , 75 500 , 5,905 . 2010 1- 7.83 ., 35900 ., 38 ., 572 . . .

3.2.1.

4 1-

. . // 35 900 1 028 000 36 905 200 000 // 572 000 6 145 3 514 940 000 // 7 830 25 300 000 198 099 000 000 // 38 000 81 600 3 100 800 000 241 619 940 000

: http://www.forum.mn/

2009 4.2 . 60 - . . .

3.2.2.

,

NSR$/ton Cu, Au, /

Ag, /

, ppm

, /

,

,

.

127 21,38 0,58 0,93 1,50 59 635 93 154 - 1,204 22,57 0,98 0,33 2,19 52 10,407 313 2,178 5 1,471 21,10 0,89 0,34 2,43 109 11,596 393 2,968 53 ++ 2,801 21,75 0,92 0,36 2,28 82 22,639 798 5,300 58

: 6709, 3148, 3150 2009

.

- , . 74

70000-85000 , 25-30 . , - 30 . . : 34.3% . 117000 .( ) 10.3%- . 11.5% .

7.9 . . 54 . .

580 . , 29 . . 2014 2008 2 . . 50 . , , , . , , , 3.19 , , .

.

- , . 75

1997 2008 . 3000 . , . . 5000 , 10 , . . 3 . I : II : , III : - .

3.2.2. ,

.

- , . 76

3.2.3. ,

3.3 , ,

1997 . , , , . 1997 //, . , , , .

, , , . , , , , , , .

.

- , . 77

. , , . , .

. , , . , . . 1970- 1980- . . . . 2007-2008 6 . , . 24 . .

.

- , . 78

. . :

.

1. 2001 , .

2.

3.

4. .

, .

3.3.1.

,

.

- , . 79

, . , , . . . , , , , .

.

- , . 80

, .

, . , , , , , .

, 2006 , , .

, . 2009 2704877.8 28.2%, 65.4 , 84.4 .

.

.

. ,

.

- , . 81

. .

, .

, , , , , , , . .

1900 495.0 2008 15000 1900-2008 4%- . .

, , , . . .

.

, . 1 0.4 , 1 0.6 .

,

.

- , . 82

1 1.15 .

, , .

, .

, , .

, .

. , , , , .

, , .

. ,

, , , .

, .

, , , .

.

- , . 83

.

1. . , 1998 2. ., ., . , 2000 3. ., . Eviews , 2005 4. . , 2000 5. ., . , 2002 6. . , 2004 7. . - , 2005 8. . , 2005 9. , . I, II , 2000 10. . - , 1996 11. . , 2000 12. - :

, , 2000 13. -, Eviews , 2006 14. . , 1996 15. ., . , 2006 16. . , 1999 17. . , 2005 18. ., . , 2000 19. . , 2002 20. . , 2001 21. . ,

2009 22. -. , 2006 23. . , 2004 24. , , 1998-2009 25. , 1998-2009 26. , 2002 27. 28. , 29.

.

- , . 84

. 1. - , 2, , 2007

. ,

1. . , , , 2008 2. . , 2009 3. ., .

, , , 2008

4. . , , , , 2009

5. , 2008

6. , 2008

7. : , , 2009

8. . , , , 2009

9. , , , 2005

10. . , , , , , 2008

11. . , , 2008 12. Ana Rebelo Latest ICSG Global 2009/2010 Copper Market Supply and Demand

Forecasts and Longer Term Production Capacity Developments CN 2009

13. Chealean Copper Commission Copper market report H1 2009

14. Chealean Copper Commission, Research Department Investment in the Chilean

Copper and Gold Mining Sector Estimates for 2009-2013 2009

15. Copper Development Association Copper Supply and Consumption 1988-2008

Annual Data 2009

16. Eric Parrado Fiscal Stabilization: The Chilean experience UB 2009

17. Erik Heimlich M The mutual importance of the Chilean and Chinese copper

.

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industries 2009

18. GFMS company Copper Survey 2010 London, United Kingdom, 2010

19. International Copper Study Group The World Copper Factbook 2009

20. J.De Gregorio Economic Growth in Chile And Copper Central bank of Chile, 2009

21. Sujatha Kristensen The Recent Rise and Fall in Copper Prices an Econometric

Analysis USA, 2009

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1. http://www.kitco.com/market

2. http://www.lme.com/

3. http://www.metalprice.com

4. http://www.copper.org

5. http://www.neatideas.com

6. http://www.basemetals.com

7. http://www.icsg.org

8. http://www.ft.com

9. http://www1.metalbulletin.com

10. http://www.mines.edu

11. http://www.metalseconomics.com

12. http://www.mram.gov.mn

13. http://www.mining-journal.com

14. http://www.miningweekly.co.za

15. http://minerals.usgs.gov

16. http://www.gold.org

17. http://www.nso.mn

18. http://www.mining.mn

19. http://www.ot.mn/

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