How are opinions formed?

How are opinions measured?

The Media

MASS MEDIA & PUBLIC OPINION

Attitudes held by significant number of people on public policy matters

Why is public opinion important in a democracy?

Should politicians do what “the people” want?(West Wing – Lame Duck Congress)

WHAT IS PUBLIC OPINION?

FamilySchool Mass MediaPeer GroupsOpinion LeadersHistoric Events

WHY DO WE BELIEVE WHAT WE BELIEVE?

- The foundations upon which political opinions are built start with your parents

- Adopt the political views of the primary caregiver- Political opinions also influenced by older siblings and

other relatives.

FAMILY

First break from familiar influence

Schools teach the values of the American political system

How?

Do schools and teachers ever abuse this influence?

SCHOOLS

Communication that reaches a large number of people Internet, TV, Radio, Magazines, NewspapersHas media become an “Echo Chamber?”

MASS MEDIA

Influence of peer groups increases during adolescence

Peer groups usually enforce what one already believes. Why?

PEER GROUPS

Person with an unusually strong influence on the views of others

Public offi cials, members of media, religious leaders

Has the line between news and commentary blurred?

Does the media reflect opinion, or shape it?

OPINION LEADERS

Great Depression: A Case Study- 1929: economy collapses- 1938: near 20% unemployment- Events persuaded majority of Americans to support a

larger role for the government

Other Examples- 1960s & 70s

HISTORIC EVENTS

MEASURING PUBLIC OPINION – WHY?

Ways to Measure Public Opinion Strengths Weaknesse

sElections

Interest Groups

The Media

Personal Contacts

PUBLIC OPINION POLLS – WHO CARES?

Straw PollsAsking the same question to a large

number of peopleOnline polls an example (SportsNation

-- http : / /espn.go.com/spor tsnat ion/)Why is this unreliable?

Literary Digest PollPredicted Alf Landon would defeat FDRPolled 2.3 million people – Why were

the results faulty?

PRE-GALLUP ERA

Pioneered by George Gallup and Elmo RoperTop fi rms today: Gallup, Harris, Marist, various media

outlets5 Steps to ensure a scientific poll

Defining the Universe Constructing a Sample Preparing Valid Questions Interviewing Interpreting & Analyzing

Focus Groups West Wing: 100,000 Airplanes

SCIENTIFIC POLLING

Whose opinion do you want to measure? i.e.: Catholic voters, women over 35, likely voters etc.

DEFINING THE UNIVERSE

Cannot speak to all members of a universeSample: representative slice of the total universeRandom SampleAll members of a universe have an equal chance of

being included (law of probability)Most polls seek 1,500 respondents for a margin of

error of +/- 3%Would need 9,000 respondents to get to +/- 1%

CONSTRUCTING A SAMPLE

Respondents CANNOT be self-selected What kind of polling does this eliminate?

Respondents CANNOT be fundamentally diff erent from the universe as a whole Think Literary Digest poll

A FINAL WORD ON SAMPLES

How a question is asked will infl uence the results.

Do you support lower taxes?Do you support more funding for local police departments?

Questions should not suggest answers or use “loaded words”

Push polls

West Wing: Lies, Damn Lies…

VALID QUESTIONS

Most pollsters do their work over the phone (random digit dialing)

Why?The way questions are asked can alter results.

INTERVIEWING

Intensity of opinionsStability of opinionsRelevance of opinions

Do polls shape opinion, or reflect it?Bandwagon eff ect

Cannot replace electionsCannot tell elected offi cials what to do

Polls are snapshots, with a short shelf-life

WHAT POLLS CAN’T DO

TelevisionInternetRadio, Newspapers, Magazines, Books

THE MASS MEDIA

Why is the media protected by the Constitution?

THE MEDIA: THE FOURTH ESTATE

Are we more informed than ever before?

INFORMATION OVERLOAD

Does the Media have a bias?Liberal, Conservative, “Status Quo”, Structural

https: / /www.youtube .com/watch?v=qtDJ6Ay4QMw

BIAS & MEDIA

Has the line between news and commentary blurred?

NEWS VS. OPINIONS

Setting the Public AgendaNYT: “All the news that’s fi t to print.” – says who?

Media can influence what people think about

Has the explosion of the internet and cable news helped to correct this problem, or is it worse now than ever before?

MEDIA & POLITICS

Infl uencing ElectionsTV allows for a direct appealSocial Media allows for more interactionVisual media makes image more important than everMedia covers the “horserace”

How to get your candidate on TV: Interesting visuals Short, pithy quotes (sound bites)

MEDIA & POLITICS