maryland epidemiology and genotyping update...tb annual update, march 22, 2016 ^quick and dirty...
TRANSCRIPT
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Maryland Epidemiology and
Genotyping Update
Wendy Cronin, PhD, EpidemiologistCenter for TB Control & Prevention
Maryland Department of Health & Mental Hygiene
TB Annual Meeting
March 22, 2016TB Annual Update, March
22, 2016
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Presentation Outline
• Global TB Epidemiology (2014)
• Maryland TB Epidemiology (2015)– TB case numbers and trends– Demographics– Drug resistance– Comorbidities– Genotyping
• TBESC Update
TB Annual Update, March
22, 2016
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• No. 1 infectious disease cause of death
• No. 5 all-cause of death worldwide
• No. 3 all-cause of death in women of child-
bearing age
• >9 million estimated incident “new” cases
• 80,000 TB deaths among HIV-negative children
TB Annual Update, March
22, 2016
Global TB epidemiology - 2014
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Global Tuberculosis Report 2015. World Health Organization.
WHO Estimates of TB incidence, 2014
56% cases in Southeast Asia, Western Pacific
(35% China and India); 25% in Africa
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Source: Population Action International
Have germs, will travel…
Migrating populations
TB Annual Update, March
22, 2016
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Maryland TB, 2008-2015
TB Annual Update, March
22, 2016
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Cas
e R
ate
/10
0,0
00
Cas
es
Cases Maryland Linear (Maryland)
176 cases
Rate: 2.9
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TB Case Rates per 100,000, United
States, 2015
<2
>3 (provisional national average)
D.C.
CDC, 3/24/2016(1st case increase in U.S. since 1992)
2-3
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State TB Case Rates per 100,000
Population, by Jurisdiction, 2015
TB Annual Update, March
22, 2016
<2.9/100,000
>2.9 /100,000
No reported cases
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TB Annual Update, March
22, 2016
Baltimore City
Rate: 2.2!
(14 cases)
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TB Rates among US and Foreign
Born, Maryland vs. US, 2015
TB Annual Update, March
22, 2016
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Cas
e r
ate
s p
er
10
0,0
00
MD US-born MD Foreign-born
US US-born US Foreign-born
Linear (MD Foreign-born)
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6 Top Countries of Origin-MD, 2015
TB Annual Update, March
22, 2016
Ethiopia, 11%
India, 8%
El Salvador, 7%
Nigeria, 7%
Vietnam, 6%
Burma, 5%
Others, 55%
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Foreign-born TB Case Numbers, by Time
from U.S. Arrival to Diagnosis, 2013-2015
TB Annual Update, March
22, 2016
0 10 20 30 40 50 60
2013
2014
2015
>10 years >5-10 years 4mo-5 year <4 mo (prevalent cases)
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TB Cases by Race and Origin, 2015
White 21%
Black/A.A. 62%
Hispanic10%
U.S. Born
Asian
7%
White 3%
Black 34%
Asian 35%
Hispanic26%
Other2%
Foreign Born
TB Annual Update, March
22, 2016
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Cases by Age Group Maryland, 2013-2015
TB Annual Update, March
22, 2016
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
2013 2014 2015
<5 5-14 15-24 25-44 45-64 65+
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The Canary in the Coal Mine
• Children under 5 years old
– At high risk for TB meningitis, disseminated TB
– Disease can progress quickly
– Can represent undiagnosed adult cases
– Important to find source case
• Stop further transmission
TB Annual Update, March
22, 2016
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Case Rates per 100,000 in Children
<5 Years of Age; Maryland vs. US,
2011-2015
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Maryland Rate National rate
0.5
1.3
0.4
TB Annual Update, March
22, 2016
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Maryland Drug Resistance, 2015
TB Annual Update, March
22, 2016
176 cases total
128 (73%) cases:
susceptibility results
11 (9%) cases: any resistance
1 (<1%) MDR
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With Fewer Cases Why Are We
Still Working So Hard?
• Risk factors
– TB HIV co-infection
– Co-morbidities (DM, COPD)
– Pregnancy
– Substance abuse
• They are more complex!
TB Annual Update, March
22, 2016
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TB HIV Co-Infection Rate
Trends, 2011-2015
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Pe
rce
nt
of
Ca
se
s
Percent of those tested
TB Annual Update, March
22, 2016
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Numbers of TB HIV Co-Infection,
Origin of Birth, 2012-2015
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2012 2013 2014 2015
Ca
se
nu
mb
ers
US Born Foreign Born
86% foreign-born
73% foreign-born
77% foreign-born
56% foreign-born
TB Annual Update, March
22, 2016
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TB and DiabetesNo. %
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
16.0
18.0
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Cases Percent Linear (Percent)
TB Annual Update, March
22, 2016
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TB-DM project (2014-2016)
Richard Brooks, MD, MPH, EIS officer
TB Annual Update, March
22, 2016
“Quick and dirty” findings for 1.5 years of NEDSS data:
Compared to TB patients without diabetes, TB-DM were:
• Two times more likely to be sputum smear positive• 2.4 times more likely to be cavitary• Four times more likely to have an indeterminate IGRA• Four times more likely to die during TB treatment
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TB-DM project (2014-2016)Richard Brooks, MD, MPH, EIS officer
TB Annual Update, March
22, 2016
A couple of anecdotes:1. Among TB patients/ suspects:
YOU have diagnosed previously unknown DM-TB
HgbA1c as high as 14.4!
3. TDM among TB-DM patients: YOU identified low RIF absorption in some patients, and increased RIF doses to therapeutic levels
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Mtb Genotype Clustering
• Local Health Department calls CTBCP
• Provider or ICP calls CTBCP
• CTBCP gets routine genotyping report from CDC (TB-GIMS) and calls LHD
• CDC (TB-GIMS) sends an “Alert”
• Laboratory calls CTBCP
TB Annual Update, March 22,
2016
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TB case rate(active TB)
# cases of active TB
Current U.S. (2014)30
cases/million9412
TB ‘pre-elimination’<10
cases/million<3200
TB ‘elimination’<1
case/million<320
TBESC Update: Protocol Part B
TB Prevention Cascade
TB Annual Update, March
22, 2016
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Why now?
Reaching TB Pre-elimination
and Elimination • Plateau in TB case numbers
• TB transmission is limited, though persistent
• New tests (IGRAs) for diagnosing LTBI
• Shorter treatments for LTBI, with high completion rates
• Combined strategies needed to hasten time to TB elimination:
– Reduce foreign born new arrivers with TB and untreated LTBI
– Among individuals with LTBI, increase the proportion that are
treated (treatment as prevention)
A.N. Hill et al, Epidemiol Infect 2012;140:1862TB Annual Update, March
22, 2016
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**
Pre-elimination target
(<10/mill) met by ≈ 2025 IF
• Treatment rate for chronic
LTBI is quadrupled
starting 2008.
Approaching elimination
(<1/mill ) after 2030 IF
• Treatment rate for LTBI
is quadrupled starting 2008.
• Assumes prevalence of
chronic LTBI in FB arrivals is
reduced to 25% of baseline.
A.N. Hill et al, Epidemiol Infect 2012;140:1862
TB Annual Update, March
22, 2016
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TB Prevention Cascade
(“Treatment as Prevention”)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
% o
f Po
pu
lati
on
TB Annual Update, March
22, 2016
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TB Prevention Gaps in Care
0102030405060708090
100
? ? ? ? ?
?
??
?
?
?
% o
f Po
pu
lati
on
TB Annual Update, March
22, 2016
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Theme for TBESC Part B!
TB Annual Update, March
22, 2016
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Challenges to TB Elimination
• We don’t know much about the ‘at risk’ populations – WHO, WHERE, HOW MANY?
• We don’t know WHICH non-health dept. providers serve ‘at-risk’ populations of interest and WHERE they are located
• We don’t know who IS and IS NOT receiving TB services outside the health department
TB Annual Update, March
22, 2016
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0
20
40
60
80
100
% o
f Po
pu
lati
on
LTBI services-Health Dept TB Clinics
X X X X X X
LTBI services –Other Clinics
X X X X X X
Modeling existing data (census, ACS, BRFSS, TBESC,etc.)
X X X X X X X
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Low Hanging Fruit - Collecting Data from
Health Department TB Clinics
• We can do better but can’t get to TB Elimination!
• Funding cuts = fewer populations served by HD
TB Annual Update, March
22, 2016
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Then there’s the old Mutt and
Jeff story …
TB Annual Update, March
22, 2016
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Potential non-HD Providers
• Other public health clinics
• Other government agencies (corrections)
• FQHCs, Community Health Centers
• Other community-based organizations
• Private providers (Kaiser, universities, etc.)
? ?
? ? ? ?
?
TB Annual Update, March
22, 2016
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Seattle – Locating High Risk
Populations and Their Providers
TB Annual Update, March
22, 2016
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Questions?