mars: on the path or in the way? brent sherwood glex, may 2012 the space show, july 24, 2012 fiso,...

Mars: On the Path or In The Way?

Brent [email protected]

GLEX, May 2012The Space Show, July 24, 2012

FISO, August 1, 2012

mailto:[email protected]

HSF ≠ Exploration

GLEX – May 2012 Mars: On the Path or In the Way? Sherwood 2

Explore Mars: A Refractory Meme

• von Braun, 1948 – Das MarsProjekt

• Kennedy, 1961 – U.S. to the Moon

• Success, twisted – The means or the end?


Why Can’t Mars Be Like Apollo?

A lot has changed in half a century…

1. Technical: Better grip on magnitude of the challenge

2. Financial: More realism about what space stuff costs

3. Budget: NASA spending power half the Apollo peak

4. Society: Space is not today’s “final frontier”

5. Exploration: Accelerating return from robotic missions

By the time humans could step onto Mars, what would it mean for them to “explore?”


1. Technical Challenge: Unpredictable Cost


2 & 3. Finance & Budget: Also Unpredictable

NASA HSF investment is $1010 per year

A given for the next four decades?

ISS

1984: $1010 over a decade

Actuals: $1011 over three

Explore Mars

Today: $1011 over 3-4 decades

By mid-century: ??


4. Society: a Few of Today’s Frontiers

• Genetic engineering

• Nanotechnology

• Artificial intelligence

• Networks

• Sustainable energy


5. Exploration: Another 30 Years Raise the Bar

• Presence at Mars is now continuous

• Robotic mission longevity routinely exceeds design life

• Resolution, sensitivity, data volume, flexibility all increasing

• Scientific results now go beyond simple discovery

• Insight is increasingly synoptic in space and time

• Missions are programmatically sequenced, focused on MSR

• Investigations culminate in questions about life


1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 20100

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1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 20150

100200300400500600700800900

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Mars Orbital Missions Mars Surface MissionsData Returned (GB) Data Returned (GB)

Publications, Major Journals Publications, Major Journals

MSL

Phoe

nix

MER

s

Path

finde

r

Viki

ngs

MRO

MGS

Ody

ssey

Viki

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Mar

iner

9M

arin

er 6

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Mar

iner

4

1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 20101E-04

1E-03

1E-02

1E-01

1E+00

1E+01

1E+02

1E+03

1E+04

1E+05

1E+06

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 20151

10

100

1000

10000Prime

mission only. +20 GB/2yr thereafter

Exploration: Robotic Return Accelerating

Sherwood 9

2040

2030

2020

2010

2000

1990

1980

1970

1960

First flyby

•20 images, 1% coverage

•First reprogrammable computer•200 images, 20% coverage

Dual flybyFirst orbiter

•1-yr lifetime•7300 images, 80% coverage

First landers •4-yr lifetime (orbiter)•52,000 images, 97% coverage•Soft landing, orbital data relay

Mars not like Earth…

…but neither like the Moon

Enormous geological features, dynamic planet

Dynamic conditions and surface conditions measured. Mars was very different in ancient past.No apparent life signs.

Global survey First rover

•10-yr lifetime •Aerobraking•Data > sum of previous missions

3-D topography maps. Daily and seasonal weather patterns.Regions rich in water-formed minerals.Active geology today, possibly water-related.

•84-sol lifetime•2.3 Mb, >17,000 images •Dual-viewer, stereo images•Contact mineralogy

Diverse rock types/composition. Dust extremely fine.Mars likely warmer, wetter in distant past.

Global survey 2

•>11-yr lifetime (still active) •Data > sum of previous missions

Radiation in low Mars orbit 2x that in LEO.Global mineralogy to 1-m depth. Ancient floods.Vast regions with subsurface ice.

Surface exploration•9-yr surface life (still active)•8 and 35-km traverses•Sub-weathered contact mineralogy•Radar to 5-km depth (from orbit)

Proof of long-standing water in the past. Profiles of layered subsurface ice deposits.Motion pictures of transient phenomena (dust devils).Global mapping

•7-yr surface life (still active)•161 Tb of data so far•30 cm/pixel imaging

Detailed surface images anywhere needed.Engineering images of entry systems on surface.Multiple investigations of historical role of water.Discovery of lava tube skylights.

Polar surface/ice

Mariner 4

Mariner 6,7Mariner 9

Viking 1,2

MGS, Pathfinder

OdysseyMER, MARSISMROPhoenix

•150-sol surface life •North polar region site•Onboard wet chemistry lab•Soil grain microscopy

Proof of ice beneath thin regolith cover.Perchlorate.

MSLMAVEN

“Follow the water”

“Search for life signs”

Proposed return of samples to Earth

HabitabilityVolatiles over time

Propose more samples returned? Prepare for humans? Sherwood 10

Human Exploration?

• Hopping and driving around, and taking photos, won’t cut it

• What is exploration when every rock is already mapped?

• Robotic discovery of evidence of life in the interim?– An unmanageable wild card against which to bet 40 years and $1011

People can figure this out – why should we be surprised that the support we need isn’t there?


Three Other Options for HSFOption Purpose Myth

Needs

(+ $1011 over 40 yr)Yields 2050 Space

Population

Explore Mars

Extend direct human experience as far as possible

Hero(Lewis and

Clark)

Public commitment sustained over several decades

Cultural achievement: setting foot on Mars

Six international civil servants

Settle the Moon

Establish humanity as a two-planet species

Pioneer(Heinlein)

• Routine heavy traffic to lunar surface

• Use of lunar resources“Living off the land” in space 103 citizens raising

families off-world

Accelerate space

passenger travel

Create new travel-related industries

Jet set(Branson)

“Four 9s” reliability launch and entry

• Highly reliable, reusable space vehicles

• 1-hr intercontinental travel

103 crew + 105 citizens in LEO

every year

Enable space solar power for

Earth

Prepare for post-petroleum age with minimal disruption

Green Public-private and inter-Agency partnerships

• Energy-abundant future• Economical heavy-lift launch

102 skilled workers in GEO


Self Determination

• NASA is not required to Explore Mars– Not by U.S. National Space Policy– Not by U.S. Law– Not even by NASA’s own Strategic Goals

• Our rationale for Explore Mars is weak– Largely self-referential– Explore Mars does not uniquely satisfy what we say is important

• In the end, we will get what we earn– Perhaps we should quit whining and design our product for success


Policy: Uniquely Explore Mars?

• Energize competitive domestic industries

• Expand international cooperation

• Strengthen stability in space

• Increase assurance and resilience of mission-essential functions

• Pursue human and robotic initiatives

• Improve space-based Earth and solar observation

National Space Policy, 2010


The Law – Uniquely Explore Mars?

• LONG TERM GOAL– The long term goal of the human space flight and exploration efforts of NASA shall be to

expand permanent human presence beyond low-Earth orbit and to do so, where practical, in a manner involving international partners.

• KEY OBJECTIVES– The key objectives of the United States for human expansion into space shall be:– to sustain the capability for long-duration presence in low-Earth orbit, initially through

continuation of the ISS … and through assisting and enabling an expanded commercial presence … as elements of a LEO infrastructure;

– to determine if humans can live in an extended manner in space with decreasing reliance on Earth, starting with utilization of low-Earth orbit infrastructure, to identify potential roles that space resources such as energy and materials may play, to meet national and global needs and challenges … and to explore the viability of and lay the foundation for sustainable economic activities in space;

– to maximize the role that human exploration of space can play in advancing overall knowledge of the universe, supporting United States national and economic security and the United States global competitive posture, and inspiring young people in their educational pursuits; and

– to build upon the cooperative and mutually beneficial framework established by the ISS partnership agreements and experience.

NASA Authorization Act, Section 202, 2010


NASA Strategy –Uniquely Explore Mars?

• Extend and sustain human activities across the solar system

• Expand scientific understanding of the Earth and the universe in which we live

• Create the innovative new space technologies for our exploration, science, and economic future

• Advance aeronautics research for societal benefit

• Enable program and institutional capabilities to conduct NASA’s aeronautics and space activities

• Share NASA with the public, educators, and students to provide opportunities to participate in our mission, foster innovation, and contribute to a strong national economy.

NASA Strategic Goals


Self-Made Do Loop?NASA’s “History of Human Space Exploration”


Self-Licking Ice Cream Cone?ISECG Goals

• Perform Science to support human exploration

• Develop exploration technologies and capabilities

• Engage the public in exploration

• Search for life

• Extend human presence

• Perform space, Earth, and applied science

• Stimulate economic expansion

• Enhance Earth safety


Rationale, or Rationalization?

Search for Life

Extend Human Presence Science Economic

ExpansionEarth Safety

Explore Mars ✓ ✓ ✓ --- ---

Settle the Moon --- ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓

Accelerate space passenger travel --- ✓ --- ✓✓ ---

Enable space solar power for Earth --- ✓ --- ✓✓ ✓✓


A Real Roadmap Shows Detours

Space passenger

travel

Orbital resort hotels

Expand HSF into GEO

Demonstrate end-to-end SPS

Demonstrate SPS scale-up

Industrialize GEO

Demonstrate space habitation

Settle the

Moon

Explore the solar system

Commercial Investment

Government Investment

Develop space flight


Formula for a Vibrant HSF Future

• Stop wondering what is wrong with people who don’t care about what matters to us

• Recognize that the world has moved on in the half century we have been peddling the same dream

• Stop asserting that HSF is essential for finding life on Mars

• Stop expecting $1010 per year of (only) public investment

• Design the HSF product for success– To attract private capital

– To solve genuine problems

– To be central to society moving forward

• Have the right debate– Which unaffordable destination…

– …or what we could really do for humanity?


Urban Geography from GEO

Sherwood, Apr 2012

London

Casablanca

Jerusalem

Munich

0° Prime Meridian180° International Date Line

RomeViennaCape Town

Istanbul

HelsinkiCairo

Moscow

Mecca

Geneva

RiyadhTe

hranDu

bai

Mum

bai

Kara

chi

Del

hi

Kol

kata

Bangkok

Hanoi

JakartaXi’an

Singapore

Beijing

ManilaSeoul

Shanghai

Tokyo

Vladivostok

Sydney

Fukuoka

Melbourne

Auckland

Honolulu

Anchorage

Vanc

ouve

r

San

Fran

cisco

Los

Ange

les

Las

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Cal

gary

Phoe

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enve

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exic

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ity

Hou

ston

San S

alvadorC

hicagoA

tlantaD

etroitP

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ityToronto

New

York

Washington

BostonCaracas

LagosBuenos Aires

Nuuk

Sao Paolo

Rio de Janeiro

Reykjavik

Dakar

Glasgow

Lisbon

Freetown

The View from GEO

mars: on the path or in the way? brent sherwood glex, may 2012 the space show, july 24, 2012 fiso,...

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