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MARKETBEAT
BRUSSELS OFFICE
MARKET
Q4 2016
1Cushman & Wakefield | Marketbeat Brussels Office Market Q4 2016
OVERVIEW
The Brussels office market continued its
slow recovery in 2016, though new
challenges emerge for 2017.
The Brussels office market ended 2016 on a positive note,
with 454,000 sq m of take-up recorded, an increase of
50% compared to 2015.
As the level of speculative developments remains relatively
low and as the office reconversions continue (though at a
more limited pace), the vacancy rate continues its slow
and continuous decrease and reached 9.2% at the end of
the year, its lowest level since 2007. The vacancy rate
could start to increase as from 2017 as important
relocation processes are in the pipeline.
There are currently 70,000 sq m available in grade A
buildings. As the speculative pipeline only amounts to
32,000 sq m for 2017, this level is expected to decrease in
the coming months.
No changes are to mention regarding the prime rental
levels which remain at €275/sq m/year in the Leopold
district. Slight adaptations have been made during 2016
depending on the concerned districts. An increase of the
prime rent is still expected in 2017.
The average rents witnessed a slight increase during the
year 2016 and stand around €160/sq m/year at the end of
Q4, compared to €150/sq m/year at the end of 2015.
Further slight increases are forecasted in 2017.
454,000 sq mBEST YEAR SINCE 2010, MOSTLY
THANKS TO PUBLIC BODIES.
9.2%LOWEST VACANCY RATE SINCE 2007
THANKS TO THE LOW LEVEL OF
SPECULATIVE DEVELOPMENTS
BRUSSELS OFFICE MARKET
Q4 2016
Figure 1: Take-up (000s sq m, LHS) and Distribution by
district (%, RHS)
Source: Cushman & Wakefield
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
0
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Take-up CBD Decentralised Periphery
2Cushman & Wakefield | Marketbeat Flanders Office Market Q4 2016
ECONOMIC OVERVIEW
Figure 2: GDP Growth, in %
Source: Oxford Economics
The Belgian economy grew moderately
in 2016.
The economic growth continued at a moderate pace in
2016, posting a 1.2% increase, slightly below the level
reached in 2015, as a consequence of the economic
uncertainties (the consequences of the Brexit and the
victory of Trump late November 2016) and terrorist threats.
Activity is expected to gradually pick up in the coming
years, around 1.5% in 2017 (Figure 2). Looking ahead,
high public debt levels continue to pose downside risks. A
possible European downturn originating from a weakened
Italian banking sector or more protectionist trade policies
would weigh on Belgian exports and depress the economic
outlook.
Confidence indices on the up since 2013.
Following a strong decrease in Q3, confidence indices are
oriented upwards in Q4 and almost reached their highest
levels since 2014 (Figure 3).
As far as consumers’ macroeconomic estimates are
concerned, fears of a rise in unemployment over the
coming twelve months have again subsided sharply while
the outlook for the general economic situation remains
unchanged. Households predict only minor changes in
their situations.
Business confidence is also oriented upwards thanks to
recoveries in the manufacturing, construction and
business-related services sectors. By contrast, the
economic outlook weakened in the trade sector, due to
increasing protectionist threats.
Figure 3: Confidence indices
Source: National Bank of Belgium
Unemployment rate at its lowest since
2012 and further downward expected.
The unemployment rate continued to decrease in 2016 to
reach 8.1%, its lowest level since 2012 (Figure 4). Recent
reforms to reduce labour costs are feeding through to
improved competitiveness and contributed to a decrease
of unemployment.
Compared to the evolutions forecasted in the Eurozone or
in the US, only further slight decreases of the
unemployment are expected in Belgium in the coming
years. In 2020, the unemployment rate could stand at
7.6%, while important disparities between regions should
still exist.
Figure 4: Unemployment rate, in %
Source: Oxford Economics
-2%
-1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
USA Eurozone Belgium
-30
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-10
-5
0
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Consumer confidence Business confidence
0%
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4%
6%
8%
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USA Eurozone Belgium
3Cushman & Wakefield | Marketbeat Flanders Office Market Q4 2016
ECONOMIC OVERVIEW
Figure 5: Employment growth, in %
Source: Oxford Economics
Employment growth posted solid
performances in 2016.
Job creations have been important in the Eurozone in
2016, with an employment growth just above 1%. In the
US, job creation has also been the highest over these last
years with a growth around 1.7% (Figure 5).
In Belgium, this increase is the strongest since 2011.
Roughly, 50,000 jobs were created in the different sectors
of the economy. In the services, globally 3,750,000 jobs
are recorded (+ 40,000 compared to 2015).
Despite remaining positive, the employment growth is
expected to decelerate in the coming years in Belgium as
well as the Eurozone and the USA. In 2020, the
employment growth should barely reach 0.5%.
Strong inflation increase at the end of
2016.
Compared to 2015 (0.6% on average), inflation in Belgium
reached the 2% threshold in 2016. This is far higher than
the low 0.3% observed at the Eurozone level, despite all
the efforts done by the European Central Bank to promote
an inflation close but just below the 2% threshold.
The strong rebound observed in the Eurozone during last
quarter should last in the coming months. As a result,
inflation should reach 1.5% in 2017 and gradually increase
to stand around 2% in 2020. Belgium should roughly follow
the same path between 2017 and 2020 (Figure 6).
Figure 6: Inflation, in %
Source: Oxford EconomicsECB base rates to remain at 0% until
2020.
Unlike the US FED, the ECB has decided to maintain its
base interest rates unchanged at 0% in Q4 2016. More
globally, the monetary policy of the European Central Bank
should remain accommodating in the coming months,
through the extension of its quantitative easing programs
throughout 2017 (though at a decreased rate of € 60bn per
month rather than € 80bn) and its willingness to maintain
interest rates unchanged.
In the longer term, the base interest rates are forecasted to
remain unchanged at 0% up to the beginning of 2020 while
they are set to gradually increase in the USA (Figure 7).
The 10-year government bond yields are also expected to
gradually increase as from 2017. However, they will
remain below 2% up to 2019. As a result, further yield
compressions are not excluded for prime assets and/or
locations in Belgium in the coming months but the window
of opportunity is slowly narrowing.
Figure 7: Interest rates, in %
Source: Oxford Economics
-1,0%
-0,5%
0,0%
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1,0%
1,5%
2,0%
USA Eurozone Belgium
0,0%
0,5%
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3,0%
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Eurozone Belgium
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
FED Interest rate ECB Interest rate
10-years Belgian bond
4Cushman & Wakefield | Marketbeat Brussels Office Market Q4 2016
BRUSSELS OFFICE MARKETGLOBAL OVERVIEW
Figure 8: Take-up by quarter, in 000s sq m
Source: Cushman & Wakefield
Solid take-up in 2016, although hiding
fragile reality.
In Q4, 90,000 sq m of take-up were recorded on the
Brussels office market. Thanks to significant transactions
from the public sector, activity reached a strong 454,000
sq m globally in 2016. This is 50% more than in 2015 and
the highest level observed since 2010 (Figure 8).
However the reality behind this solid take-up raises
important questions on the future of the Brussels office
market. Indeed, looking at Figure 3, we see that the strong
increase recorded in 2016 is mainly due to the public
sector which contributed to more than 160,000 sq m. If the
public sector is an important actor on the letting market, its
restructuration process is mostly achieved and the future
moves will be only for relocation purposes (no net
contribution to the take-up) in the coming years.
In the meantime, the private sector is globally on the
downside since the crisis. Indeed, still looking at Figure 9,
the average take-up over the last five years stands around
285,000 sq m compared to 400,000 sq m on average
during the 2000-2010 period.
The new of way working, co-working, free-addressing and
disruptions in technology have a strong impact on the
needs for infrastructure and should contribute to further
decrease of the take-up in the coming years.
Pre-lettings and built-to-suits boost the
take-up in grade A buildings.
In 2016, more than 185,000 sq m of take-up (or 40% of the
total) is located in grade A buildings, within 100,000 sq m
are to be found in buildings which have still to be
constructed (namely Mobius, De Ligne, Centre 58).
However, this figure confirms our previous thoughts
concerning the increasing willingness of occupiers to be
located in recent and efficient office spaces (Figure 10).
Next to these significant transactions, the 6,700 sq m
letting of Danone in Docks Bruxsel or more recently the
3,500 sq m letting of Microsoft in the PassPort and the
6,000 sq m of CBR in the Genesis in Walloon Brabant also
contributed to this strong rebound.
This was however not sufficient to fully absorb the vacant
spaces in grade A buildings which stand still around
70,000 sq m at the end of 2016 compared to 75,000 sq m
at the end of 2015 (see below).
Figure 9: Public and private take-up (in 000s sq m, LHS)
and total number of deals (# deals, RHS)
Source: Cushman & Wakefield
Figure 10: Take-up by building grade, in 000s sq m
Source: Cushman & Wakefield
200155 157
60
186
157159 159
121
136
5782
125
127
132
0
100
200
300
400
500
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Grade A Grade B Grade C
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Corporate Public # Deals
0
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Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
5Cushman & Wakefield | Marketbeat Brussels Office Market Q4 2016
BRUSSELS OFFICE MARKETGLOBAL OVERVIEW
Figure 11: Vacancy by building grade (m sq m, LHS) and
Brussels vacancy rate (%, RHS)
Source: Cushman & Wakefield
The vacancy rate continued its decrease
and reached its lowest level since 2007.
There are currently 1,240,000 sq m vacant on the Brussels
office market, representing 9.2% of the total office stock
(Figure 11). The vacancy rate has continuously, though
slowly, decreased since the peak reached mid-2010,
mainly thanks to the low level of speculative projects which
entered the market in the last years and the office
reconversions into nursing homes, schools or residential
units.
The vacancy in grade A buildings is at its lowest, at 70,000
sq m at the end of 2016. However, compared to 2015, this
level is broadly unchanged (75,000 sq m at the end of
2015). The largest vacant spaces are to be found in the
Regent Park (7,300 sq m delivered in Q1 16), the Belliard
65 (5,200 sq m delivered in Q2 2016), in the Oxygen and
the Atlantis.
240,000 sq m delivered in 2016, more
scheduled in 2017.
The end of the year 2016 showed significant deliveries in
the Brussels office market, namely the Astro Tower, the
Résidence Palace and Gateway on the Brussels Airport.
Of the 240,000 sq m delivered in 2016, 86,000 sq m were
launched without a tenant and 15,000 sq m remain
currently empty.
If the pipeline for 2017 is significant (more than 250,000 sq
m awaited), there is only 32,000 sq m launched on a
speculative basis (Figure 12). In 2018, The One will add
30,000 sq m of office spaces in the Leopold district.
In the longer term, the pipeline is huge with potentially
more than 450,000 sq m, though developers are mainly
awaiting tenants to start the construction (WTC IV,
Spectre, Silver Tower, Realex, Victor…). Most of these
projects are located in the North district which is definitively
the main issue for the Brussels office market in the coming
years.
Figure 12: New supply and pipeline, in 000s sq m
Source: Cushman & Wakefield
Rental levels unchanged in 2016. Slight
increase still forecasted in 2017.
No changes of the prime rent were observed throughout
2016 in the Brussels office market. The prime rent is still to
be found at €275/sq m/year in the Leopold district. A slight
increase is still forecasted in 2017, although remaining
limited (Figure 13).
The average rents witnessed a slight increase in 2016 and
currently stands around €160/sq m/year. Further slight
increases could happen in 2017.
Figure 13: Prime and average rents, in €/sq m/year
Source: Cushman & Wakefield
7%
8%
9%
10%
11%
12%
13%
0
0,2
0,4
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1
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Grade A Grade B Grade C Vacancy rate
0
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Completed Speculative Committed Project
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Prime rent Effective prime rentMobile weighted avg
6Cushman & Wakefield | Marketbeat Brussels Office Market Q4 2016
BRUSSELS OFFICE MARKETDASHBOARD
DistrictTake-up 2016
(sq m)
Office stock
Q4 16 (sq m)
Vacancy rate
Q4 16 (%)
Prime rents
(€/sq m/year)
Average rents
(€/sq m/year)
Leopold 86,000 3,320,000 5.3% 275 190
Centre 145,000 2,430,000 5.2% 235 175
North 36,000 1,555,000 7.3% 195 150
Louise 32,000 860,000 9.1% 235 155
Midi 0 575,000 7.5% 205 160
North-East 28,000 1,210,000 15.9% 145 130
South 38,000 1,150,000 10.9% 190 145
West 14,000 310,000 18.4% 175 140
Airport 31,000 1,140,000 18.7% 175 130
Ring 13,000 490,000 14.8% 140 105
Walloon Brabant 31,000 430,000 8.7% 150 135
7Cushman & Wakefield | Marketbeat Brussels Office Market Q4 2016
BRUSSELS OFFICE MARKETCENTRAL DISTRICTS
Figure 14: Quarterly take-up by district, in 000s sq m
Source: Cushman & Wakefield
Highest take-up since 2016 thanks to the
public sector.
Thanks to a fantastic Q2, take-up in the Central districts
reached 300,000 sq m in 2016, its highest level since
2006. This strong activity is mostly due to some significant
transactions carried out by the public sector (local police,
municipality of Brussels, Brussels-Capital Region…).
However, activity is decreasing since the peak reached in
Q2. In Q4, a low 39,000 sq m has been observed. The
most important deals in Q4 are the 4,000 sq m of Publicis
One Belgium in Tour & Taxis and the 3,500 sq m purchase
of the VVSG in the Madou Centre (Figure 14).
Vacancy rate at 6%, the lowest level
since 2007.
The low level of speculative developments, combined to
the increasing concentration of the occupiers in the Central
districts has a positive effect on the vacancy rate which
witnessed a continuous decrease since 2010. As a result,
the vacancy rate currently stands at 6% (Figure 15). The
best performers are the Centre and Leopold district,
respectively at 5.25% and 5.35%.
The Louise district recorded a strong decrease of the
vacancy during 2016, mainly thanks to office
reconversions along the rue de Stassart or along the rue
de la Cambre. This district continues its renewal towards a
more mixed-use area thanks to the reconversion of
obsolete office schemes into a high-end residential
development such as the Quadrian.
The North district currently concentrates the attention.
Standing at 7.5%, the vacancy could possibly explode in
the coming months and raises the need of a global
redevelopment of the area and the introduction of the
mixed-use into the heart of the district. We have strong
ideas about the future of the North district and we are
convinced that this district could attract private occupiers
next to the different public bodies already present in the
area.
Figure 15: Vacancy rate by district, in %
Source: Cushman & Wakefield
Rental levels unchanged in 2016. Slight
increase still forecasted in 2017.
No changes are to mention regarding the rental levels
which remained perfectly stable all over 2016. A slight
increase is still to happen in 2017 (Figure 16).
The average rents are on a slight upward movement and
stand close to 190€/sq m/year at the end of 2016, mostly
boosted by the Leopold district.
Figure 16: Prime and average rents, in €/sq m/year
Source: Cushman & Wakefield
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
Leopold Midi Centre North Louise
215
293
228
225 280
138
299
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
Leopold Midi Centre
North Louise Central districts
125
150
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200
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Leopold Midi
Centre North
Louise Avg weighted rent Central
8Cushman & Wakefield | Marketbeat Brussels Office Market Q4 2016
BRUSSELS OFFICE MARKETDECENTRALISED DISTRICTS
Figure 17: Quarterly take-up by district, in 000s sq m
Source: Cushman & Wakefield
Stable activity all over the year brings
the take-up to its highest since 2010.
Four consecutive strong quarters were observed in the
Decentralised districts. In Q4, 24,000 sq m of take-up were
recorded, the highest level of the year, mainly thanks to
the 8,000 sq m purchase of the Dubrucq building by the
Federation Wallonie-Bruxelles, the 2,600 sq m letting of
Sopra Steria in the Triumph Building and the 2,500 sq m
letting of Edenred in the Souverain Plaza (Figure 17).
As a result of four dynamic quarters, activity reached a
high 80,000 sq m in 2016, its highest level since 2010.
Activity should remain dynamic in 2017, namely thanks to
the likely redevelopment of the Herrmann-Debroux building
owned by AXA and the ongoing redevelopment of the area
surrounding the CHIREC in Delta.
Vacancy rate on the decrease, though
remaining at a high 15%.
As observed in the Central districts, the vacancy rate
witnessed a continuous but slow decrease since mid-2011
and currently stands around 14% (Figure 18).
The South district records the best performances with a
vacancy rate at 11% and on the decrease thanks to recent
transactions in the Souverain Plaza and in the Glaverbel
Building. The continuous downward movement of the
vacancy, combined with the increasing willingness of the
occupiers for location close to public transportation
undoubtedly contributed to the likely redevelopment of the
Herrmann-Debroux building in the coming months.
The trend is broadly the same in the North-East area which
benefited from office reconversions in the last months
(Leopold III Tower, Woluwe 56…). The vacancy rate
currently stands just above 15%, its lowest level since mid-
2008. The downward movement could however come to a
halt with the future move of the NATO headquarters which
will vacate important office spaces along the Boulevard
Léopold III.
Figure 18: Vacancy rate by district, in %
Source: Cushman & Wakefield
Rental levels unchanged in 2016. Slight
increase still forecasted in 2017.
Compared to Q3, no changes are to mention regarding the
prime rental levels. The South district is the most
expensive at €190/sq m/year while the North-East district
is the cheapest (Figure 19).
The average rents are more volatile than those observed
in the Central districts, mostly due to the wider diversity of
the office stock and currently stand around €140/sq
m/year.
Figure 19: Prime and average rents, in €/sq m/year
Source: Cushman & Wakefield
0
10
20
30
40
50
South North-East West
111
56
50
6968
64 80
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
South North-East
West Decentralised districts
110
130
150
170
190
210
South North-EastWest Avg weighted rent Dec.
9Cushman & Wakefield | Marketbeat Brussels Office Market Q4 2016
BRUSSELS OFFICE MARKETPERIPHERY
Figure 20: Quarterly take-up by district, in 000s sq m
Source: Cushman & Wakefield
The Periphery posted its lowest activity
of the last six years in 2016.
The strong upsurge of activity witnessed in Q4 with 28,000
sq m of take-up recorded was not sufficient to
counterbalance the relatively low level witnessed in the
beginning of the year. Globally in 2016, 75,000 sq m of
take-up was observed in the Periphery (Figure 20).
The most significant transactions of the last quarter are
mainly the 3,500 sq m of Microsoft in the PassPort
building, which confirms the attractiveness of the Airport as
an office destination and the 6,000 sq m letting of CBR in
the Genesis which confirms the interest of occupiers for
qualitative and efficient office schemes. As it is the case
since the end of 2014, the Ring district struggles to attract
and even maintain occupiers on its territory, occupiers
which rather opt for the accessibility and the visibility of the
Airport area.
Vacancy rate still above 15% globally in
the Periphery.
No significant changes are to mention regarding the
vacancy rate in the Periphery as it witnessed barely no
changes in the last two years. Indeed, the vacancy rate
currently stands at 15.7%, coming from 16.5% two years
ago (Figure 21).
The best performances are observed in the Walloon
Brabant which continues to position itself as a strong
alternative for corporate occupiers with a Walloon
workforce. Furthermore, the development of the CBTC by
Chinese investors should act as a catalyst for the area
though the size of this project (total of 90,000 sq m) raises
some question regarding the size of the market.
The Airport district has still to deal with the highest
vacancy rate of the Brussels office market at 18.7%. The
situation remains ambiguous regarding the future of this
area as key locations such as the Airport attracts occupiers
such as Deloitte, KPMG and Microsoft while the Brussels
Airport Company is sketching impressive plans for the
future of the Airport.
Figure 21: Vacancy rate by district, in %
Source: Cushman & Wakefield
The Airport district at €185/sq m/year, the
most expensive rent in the Periphery.
Growing interest for core locations at Brussels Airport
contributed to push the prime rents on the upside in 2016.
They currently stand at €185/sq m/year and further
increase are forecasted in the coming months (Figure 22).
Conversely, the lack of activity in the Ring district and the
decreasing quality of the office stock has led to a decrease
of the rental levels in the course of the year to €145/sq
m/year.
Figure 22: Prime and average rents, in €/sq m/year
Source: Cushman & Wakefield
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Airport Ring Walloon Brabant
114
76
140
102
94 102
75
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
Airport Ring
Walloon Brabant Periphery
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
170
180
190
Airport RingWalloon Brabant Avg weighted rent Per.
10Cushman & Wakefield | Marketbeat Brussels Office Market Q4 2016
BRUSSELS OFFICE MARKETDEFINITIONS
Availability: Represents the total floor space in existing properties, which are physically vacant, ready for occupation and
being actively marketed as known on the last day of the quarter (with a margin of error of 5%). The vacancy
rate represents the total vacant floor space divided by the total stock at the survey date.
Building grade: Grade A: newly developed or comprehensively refurbished to new standard, including sublet space in
new/refurbished buildings not previously occupied.
Grade B: buildings of good specification, floor plate efficiency and image usually but not exclusively ten years
old or less.
Grade C: remaining poorer quality stock.
New supply: Represents the total amount of floor space that has reached practical completion as known on the last day of
the quarter (including major refurbishments) regardless whether the space is occupied or still available on the
market
Prime rent: Represents the attainable average prime rent that could be expected for an office unit (min. 500 sq m)
commensurate with demand in each location, highest quality and specification in the best location in a market
at the survey date. The rent is given as a base rent, i.e. no service charge or tax is included.
Square meters: Unless stated otherwise, the square meters used in this publication refer to the Gross Leasable Area definition
for Brussels. For more information, see our DTZ insight: Office Lease Area Comparison.
Stock: The office property stock is the sum of office properties which are in use and office properties standing empty
at the time of analysis. The office property stock is not a static amount. Due to new-build or totally refurbished
operations it increases (new supply), due to demolition, change of use or even larger refurbishments that
make the space not usable for a significant amount of time, it decreases.
Take-up: Represents the total office floor space known to have been either let, pre-let or developed for tenants as well
as sold or pre-sold to owner-occupiers as known on the last day of the quarter. Pure contract renewals, sales
and leasebacks and sub-lettings are not included.
Effective take-up: Represents the difference between the office space let or purchased by an occupier and the office space
known to have been released by the same occupier in building(s) previously located in the considered office
market. Space reduction by other tenants within their current office is not included in the calculation.
Turnover ratio: The turnover ratio is defined as the 12-months take-up moving average as a proportion of the stock size. It
indicates where real growth continues to develop.
Net absorption: Is equal to the stock occupied at the end of a period minus the stock occupied at the beginning of a period
and takes into consideration space vacated or vacant space delivered during the period.
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Disclaimer
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Research EMEAElisabeth Troni
Head of EMEA Research
+44 20 3296 2121
Research BelgiumCédric Van Meerbeeck
Head of Research Belgium é Luxembourg
+32 2 629 02 86
EMEAJohn Forrester
Chief Executive
+44 20 3296 2002
BelgiumKoen Nevens
Northern Region Leader
Country Head Belgium and Luxembourg
+32 2 546 08 63
Office AgencyAntoine Brusselmans
Head of Office Agency
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Head of Retail Agency
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Head of Capital Markets Retail
+32 2 546 08 77
Capital Markets OfficeMarc-Antoine Buysschaert
Head of Capital Markets Office
+32 2 546 08 75
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Head of Property Management
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Valuation & AdvisoryChristophe Ackermans
Head of Valuation & Advisory
+32 2 629 02 87
Valuation & AdvisoryKris Peetermans
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