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MARKET STUDY WITH OPERATING PROJECTIONS

PROPOSED MIXED-USE RESORT DEVELOPMENT, BEACH AREA 2

WASAGA BEACH, ONTARIO

Prepared for:

Mr. George Vadeboncoeur Chief Administrative Office, Town of Wasaga Beach

30 Lewis Street Wasaga Beach, Ontario

L9Z 1A1

April 2014

Tel 416 360 5000 • Fax 416 777 1567 • Email [email protected] • www.pkfcanada.com

PKF Consulting Inc. • 8th floor • 30 St. Patrick Street • Toronto • Ontario • M5T 3A3

Tel 604 689 3833 • Fax 604 689 2568 • Email [email protected] • www.pkfcanada.com

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PKF Consulting Canada

April 15, 2014

Mr. George Vadeboncoeur Chief Administrative Office, Town of Wasaga Beach 30 Lewis Street Wasaga Beach, Ontario L9Z 1A1 Via email: [email protected]

RE: MARKET STUDY WITH OPERATING PROJECTIONS, PROPOSED MIXED-USE RESORT DEVELOPMENT – BEACH 2, WASAGA BEACH, ONTARIO

Dear Mr. Vadeboncoeur:

In accordance with the terms of our engagement, PKF Consulting has completed the research and analysis

relating to the Market Study with Operating Projections for the proposed mixed-use resort development to be

located on the Beach Area 2 site in Wasaga Beach, Ontario. The analysis herein assumes an opening date

for the hotel within the development of January 1, 2016.

The entire study, including all findings and conclusions, pertain to the Wasaga Beach competitive market area

and is based on our knowledge and information with respect to current and projected economic data,

expected growth in the supply of and demand for hotel accommodation, proposed construction of facilities,

which could be deemed to be competitive, and the status of the competitive market as of March 4, 2014.

Projected operating results herein are based on an evaluation of the present economy of the area, but do not

take into account or make provision for the effect of any sharp rise or decline in local, provincial, or national

economic conditions. To the extent that wages and other operating expenses may increase over the

economic life of the hotel, it is expected that room rates would be adjusted to compensate for the increases.

As in all studies of this type, the projected operating results are based on competent and efficient

management and presume no significant change in the competitive position of the accommodation industry in

the immediate area except as set forth in this report. The estimates are subject to uncertainty and variation

Market Study with Operating Projections Proposed Resort Development – Beach 2, Wasaga Beach, Ontario

Prepared for: Town of Wasaga Beach PKF Consulting Inc. April 2014

and we do not represent them as results that will be achieved. They have, however, been conscientiously

prepared on the basis of available information and our experience in the industry.

As is customary in assignments of this nature, neither our name nor the material submitted may be included

in any prospectus, press release, offering, or representation in connection with the sale of securities or

participation interests to the public, without our prior written consent. It is a requirement of professional

practice that we review the final draft of any prospectus or offering memorandum containing references to this

study. In connection with the permitted uses and as an advice to third parties, this report may not be

disassembled or rearranged in any manner that would allow for presentation of only a portion of the report.

This report has been prepared solely for the use of the Town of Wasaga Beach. We understand that this

report will be used to support internal discussions surrounding the potential development of the Beach Area 2

lands. It is also understood that this report will be used in discussions with potential developers for the

project. It may not be used for any other purpose.

Key findings and conclusions from our analysis are as follows:

There is market support for development of an 80-unit branded, select service hotel with an estimated capital cost of $11.3 million before land costs.

There will be a funding or investment gap of approximately $3.0 million on the hotel project; a shortfall based on its investment value versus its potential capital cost.

Given that there would be additional land available, after the proposed hotel is developed, it is our opinion that

the development of mid-tier, medium-density, residential units on the balance of the site would complement

the proposed hotel project and could generate acceptable development profits to attract a developer to the

project.

The objectives of a residential development component as part of the project would be:

For the Town to realize fair market value on the sale of the 9.7-acre Beach Area 2 parcel(s);

To absorb the hotel development shortfall estimated to be approximately $3.0 million; and;

To generate significant development profits in order to attract a developer to the project.

Market Study with Operating Projections Proposed Resort Development – Beach 2, Wasaga Beach, Ontario

Prepared for: Town of Wasaga Beach PKF Consulting Inc. April 2014

If the Town of Wasaga Beach chooses to take this direction, it would be our recommendation that a third

party, residential consultant be engaged to provide an in-depth analysis of the market potential and feasibility

of the residential component.

Based on past experience with similar mixed-used development projects, it is our recommendation that it

would be critical that any agreement with a potential developer includes stipulations that the hotel be

developed within Phase 1 of the overall project to ensure this component comes to fruition. In the past, when

municipalities have not stipulated this, other more profitable areas of development, such as the residential

component discussed above, have been prioritized by the developer with the hotel development eventually be

shelved.

The following pages outline the findings and projections derived from our analysis.

Yours truly,

PKF CONSULTING INC.

Market Study with Operating Projections PKF Consulting Inc. Proposed Resort Development – Beach Area 2, Wasaga Beach, Ontario April 2014 Prepared for: Town of Wasaga Beach


TABLE OF CONTENTS

1.0 INTRODUCTION .................................................................................................................................. 1

2.0 SITE EVALUATION AND DEVELOPMENT PROGRAM .................................................................... 3

2.1 Introduction ........................................................................................................................................ 3 2.2 Site Description ................................................................................................................................. 3 2.3 Access and Visibility .......................................................................................................................... 4 2.4 Surrounding Uses / Proximity to Demand Generators ...................................................................... 4 2.5 Development Program ...................................................................................................................... 5 2.6 Conclusion ......................................................................................................................................... 8

3.0 ECONOMIC OVERVIEW .................................................................................................................... 11

3.1 Introduction ...................................................................................................................................... 11 3.2 National & Provincial Economic Indicators...................................................................................... 11 3.3 National & Provincial Travel Forecasts ........................................................................................... 12 3.4 Town of Wasaga Beach .................................................................................................................. 13 3.5 Town of Collingwood ....................................................................................................................... 17 3.6 Conclusion ....................................................................................................................................... 18

4.0 COMPETITIVE ACCOMMODATION MARKET ANALYSIS ............................................................. 19

4.1 Introduction ...................................................................................................................................... 19 4.2 Local Competitive Accommodation Market ..................................................................................... 19 4.3 Regional Competitive Accommodation Market ............................................................................... 20 4.4 Ontario Resort Competitive Market ................................................................................................. 22 4.5 Proposed New Supply – Regional Competitive Market .................................................................. 24 4.6 Competitive Market Demand Projections ........................................................................................ 25

5.0 SUBJECT PROPERTY OCCUPANCY & AVERAGE DAILY RATE PROJECTIONS ...................... 33

5.1 Introduction ...................................................................................................................................... 33 5.2 Corporate/Commercial Segment ..................................................................................................... 33 5.3 Meeting/Conference Segment ........................................................................................................ 34 5.4 Leisure/Tourist Segment ................................................................................................................. 36 5.5 Government/Other Segment ........................................................................................................... 37 5.6 Subject Hotel Average Daily Rate Projections ................................................................................ 39 5.7 Summary of Property Projections ................................................................................................... 39

6.0 SUBJECT PROPERTY FINANCIAL OPERATING PROJECTIONS ................................................ 43

6.1 Introduction ...................................................................................................................................... 43 6.2 Departmental Revenue and Expenses ........................................................................................... 44 6.3 Undistributed Operating Expenses ................................................................................................. 46 6.4 Fixed Operating Charges ................................................................................................................ 47 6.5 Summary of Operating Projections ................................................................................................. 48

7.0 THE CANADIAN HOTEL INVESTMENT MARKET .......................................................................... 54

7.1 Introduction ...................................................................................................................................... 54 7.2 Investment Cycles in the Canadian Accommodation Sector .......................................................... 54

Market Study with Operating Projections PKF Consulting Inc. Proposed Resort Development – Beach Area 2, Wasaga Beach, Ontario April 2014 Prepared for: Town of Wasaga Beach


7.3 National Transaction Activity ........................................................................................................... 57 7.4 Yields on Transactions .................................................................................................................... 58 7.5 Historic Canadian Hotel Investment Trends ................................................................................... 59 7.6 Implications for Hotel Investment in 2014 ....................................................................................... 60

8.0 INVESTMENT IMPLICATIONS – PROPOSED MIXED-USE RESORT DEVELOPMENT ............... 61

8.1 Introduction ...................................................................................................................................... 61 8.2 Indication of Supportable Value – Proposed Hotel Development ................................................... 61 8.3 Implications & Recommendations ................................................................................................... 63

Market Study with Operating Projections PKF Consulting Inc. Proposed Resort Development – Beach 2, Wasaga Beach, Ontario April 2014 Prepared for: Town of Wasaga Beach Page 1


1.0 INTRODUCTION

In February 2014, PKF Consulting Inc. was retained by the Town of Wasaga Beach to make

recommendations for and to prepare a Market Study with Operating Projections for a potential resort/hotel

development to be located at Beach Area 2 in Wasaga Beach, Ontario.

It is our understanding that the Town of Wasaga Beach is interested in assessing the market and economic

potential for the development of Beach Area 2 with the objective of ensuring that a hotel is part of the final

development program. The development program presented in the following report contemplates an 80-room,

upper mid-scale to upscale hotel, as well as a medium density residential development for the site. This study

focuses on the hotel component of the development.

This report presents the research and analysis with respect to the development of the proposed hotel. The

analysis herein has assumed an opening date for the subject hotel of January 1, 2016. The report also

identifies and presents broad recommendations for the development of complementary uses, specifically

medium density residential.

The objectives of this assignment have been to:

Evaluate the market potential for a proposed hotel development;

Recommend a facility program for the proposed hotel; Project the future occupancy, average daily room rate, and operating performance of the

proposed hotel over the period of January 1, 2016 to December 31, 2020, allowing for economic conditions as well as supply and demand growth prospects;

Prepare an “Indication of Supportable Value” for the proposed hotel utilizing the Discounted Cash

Flow Approach with the application of market driven capitalization rates;

Recommend, as necessary, potential complementary developments for the subject site; and; Provide an overview, as required, of the of investment implications for the overall mixed-use

development of the subject site. In order to complete our analysis, we have undertaken the following steps:

A review of the proposed hotel site to evaluate its suitability for the hotel development;

A review of economic conditions affecting the demand for accommodation in the Wasaga Beach,

Collingwood and the Ontario Resort market area;

A review of tourism demand trends in the market area;



A review of the existing accommodation market in Wasaga Beach, Collingwood and the Ontario Resort market, including an assessment of the existing facilities and the market demand segmentation;

An estimate of future growth in supply of, and demand for, hotel accommodation in the competitive market area;

Preparation of market penetration rates by market segment and average rate that may be achieved by the proposed hotel over the projection period of January 1, 2016 to December 31, 2020, based on the facilities, and market orientation;

A projection of the share of demand which can reasonably be captured by the subject proposed

hotel, over the projection period January 1, 2016 to December 31, 2020; Average Daily Rate projections for the subject proposed hotel, over the projection period from

January 1, 2016 to December 31, 2020;

Preparation of a five year pro forma operating statement for the subject proposed hotel for the period from January 1, 2016 to December 31, 2020;

Preparation of an “Indication of Supportable Value” off cash flow utilizing market driven

capitalization and discount rates; Review of potential complementary residential development options, in addition to the proposed

hotel, for the development site; Recommendation of complementary development facilities; Review of the investment implications for the overall mixed-use development of the subject site;

and; and;

Documentation of study research, findings and conclusions.

The following pages present a summary of our research and analysis as it relates to the proposed mixed-use

development.



2.0 SITE EVALUATION AND DEVELOPMENT PROGRAM

2.1 Introduction

The following discussion provides an overview of the subject site, located at Beach Area 2 in Wasaga Beach,

Ontario, including a description of the site, surrounding land uses and proximity to demand generators, the

recommended facility program for the proposed subject hotel, and an overview of a potential residential

component of the mixed-use development.

2.2 Site Description

The development site is located at Beach Area 2, which is

located on the north side of Mosley Street between 6th Street

and 3rd Street in Wasaga Beach, Ontario. The subject site is

an irregular shaped parcel of land that is approximately 9.7-

acres in size and is currently owned by the Town of Wasaga

Beach. Beach Area 2 is not currently improved, save and

except a small public washroom and change facility in the

north-west corner of the property. The parcel has varying

topography with small knolls and hills dispersed throughout

the property. The site, currently used as a public park area, is lightly forested with open grass areas.

Approximately one acre of the property, located between 4th Street and 5

th Street, is currently an asphalt

public parking lot. The site benefits from beachfront access on Beach 2 of Wasaga Beach, the world’s longest

(14km) freshwater beach. Exhibit 2-1 presents and aerial view of the development site.

The zoning of the site is Tourist Commercial (CT-8), which

permits the operation of hotel as well as high-density residential

development. It should be noted that, at the time of this report,

the Town of Wasaga Beach is reviewing the zoning by-laws for

the Beach Area 2 site, pending the results of an environmental

study. It is anticipated that new zoning will be approved for the

site and that both a hotel and residential development will

continue to be permitted uses.



2.3 Access and Visibility

The subject site has excellent visibility from Mosley Street and 3rd Street as well as from the intersection of 3

rd

Street and Beach Drive.

The Town of Wasaga Beach is accessible from most major 400 series Highways including Highways 400,

401 and 404 and the subject site is easily accessible from the primary roadways in Wasaga Beach. Highway

26 is the primary route for traffic travelling both to and from the Collingwood/Blue Mountain Resort area.

Visitors traveling north on Highway 26 would turn right onto Mosley Street, and continue to the site, turning left

into the site from Mosley Street. Guests traveling north on Highway 400 would take Exit 96B Dunlop Street

West and travel west on Dunlop Street to Ferndale Drive. Guests would turn right and travel north on

Ferndale Drive, merging with Wilson Drive guest would continue traveling north before turning left onto

Highway 26 West. Traveling west on Highway 26, guests would exit onto Country Road 22 and immediately

turn left on Country Road 29. Traveling north on Country Road 29, guests would turn left onto Country Road

92 / River Road before turning right onto Main Street in Wasaga Beach. Traveling north on Main Street,

guests would turn left onto Mosley Street and drive to the subject site, accessing the property by turning right

from Mosley Street, or right onto 3rd

Street then left into the subject site.

The site is approximately a 2-hour drive from the City of Toronto to the south and a one-hour drive from the

City of Barrie to the east.

2.4 Surrounding Uses / Proximity to Demand Generators

The site benefits most from being a beachfront property on Wasaga Beach, a major leisure demand

generator. Wasaga Beach is Ontario’s longest freshwater beach, and is the main driver of leisure/tourist

demand. On weekends and all week throughout the summer months, the Town benefits from a large influx of

tourists, especially for its special events and summer recreational activities. Beach Area 1 is adjacent the

subject site with a number of seasonal restaurants, bars, and retail stores that support the summer tourist

activity in the area.

The Blue Mountain/Collingwood area, located approximately 25 kilometers west of Wasaga Beach, has

evolved into one of Ontario’s few, truly multi-season tourist and vacation areas. Throughout the summer and

winter months, the area benefits from a large influx of tourists, especially for its special events, summer and

winter recreational activities such as golf, mountain biking, downhill and cross-country skiing.



As a predominantly seasonal leisure destination, Wasaga Beach has very little industry and

corporate/commercial activity. The Zancor Group has serviced and prepared industrial/ commercial land for

development in the Zancor Business Park, located along Hwy 26. The group is marketing the Business Park

to light commercial and manufacturing companies. Based on discussions with Economic Development there

are currently no companies/employers planned or proposed for the Business Park.

2.5 Development Program

Based on current market dynamics as well as our research and analysis, the development program

envisioned for the Beach Area 2 site would be a mix-use development, comprised of an 80-room hotel and a

medium-density residential component, such as town-home units. The following discussion presents the

development program for the hotel, with some preliminary considerations for a potential residential

component of the development.

2.5.1 Hotel Development Program

The following report contemplates an 80-room, upper mid-scale or upscale, branded, select service hotel

development program for the Beach Area 2 site in Wasaga Beach. Examples of upper mid-scale or upscale

brands that could be considered for such a development include, but are not limited to, Best Western Plus,

Holiday Inn Express or Hotel Indigo by Intercontinental Hotel Group, Fairfield Inn by Marriot, Hampton Inn or

Hilton Garden Inn by Hilton. Branding is recommended in that it will not only enhance the marketability of the

project, but will also enhance the potential for project financing.

Table 2-1 presents a preliminary facility program for the proposed subject hotel based on the typical prototype

programs for hotels of this size and nature.



PKF Consulting Inc. has provided these estimates as a discussion point for the proposed hotel

development used in our projections. We are not Planners or Architects and as such these estimates

should be used as a guideline for discussion only.

The proposed hotel development would include a comprehensive offering of amenities for both business and

leisure travelers. Hotels of this nature typically feature a variety of guestrooms, including standard one or two

bedded rooms, and a mixture of suite configurations. Guestrooms within this tier of hotels typically include

amenities such as a desk or work space, high-speed internet and/or wireless internet access, and in-room

coffee making facilities. The proposed hotel would have a total of 80 rooms comprised of 58 standard rooms

with either a single king bed or queen/queen bed configuration, 15 one-bedroom suites with one king bed,

and 7 one-bedroom suites with a queen/queen bed configuration, covering 26,725 sq.ft.

Other services incorporated into the development program for the proposed hotel development include an on-

site 24-hour grab-and-go kiosk for sundry items, as well as guest laundry services, and a 24-hour business

center. In addition to an indoor pool, the hotel’s recreation facilities would also include a 1,000 sq. ft. fitness

room, large enough to accommodate both hotel guests and a small number of members from the surrounding

community.

Guestrooms Rooms Sq.Ft./Rm Sq.Ft.

Standard King 23 275 6,325

Standard Queen / Queen 35 325 11,375

King Suite 15 380 5,700

Queen / Queen Suite 7 475 3,325

TOTAL GUESTROOMS 80 334 26,725

Food & Beverage Rooms Sq.Ft./Rm Sq.Ft.

70 Seat Restaurant 1 18 1,400

30 Seat Outdoor Patio (Seasonal) 1 8 600

Total Food & Beverage 2 25 2,000

Meeting/Event Faciities Rooms Sq.Ft./Rm Sq.Ft.

Main Meeting Room (150 Seats - Flexible Design) 1 28 2,250

Breakout Rooms (2 rooms + Boardroom) 3 16 1,250

Total Meeting/Event Facilities 4 44 3,500

Recreational/Other Activities Rooms Sq.Ft./Rm Sq.Ft.

Fitness Room 1 13 1,000

Indoor Pool 1 20 1,600

Lobby/Public Areas/Back of House

Lobby/Public Areas/Back of House/Mechanical/Kitchen 150 11,975

TOTAL BUILDING SIZE 80 585 46,800

Source: PKF Consulting Inc.

TABLE 2-1

BEACH AREA 2 - PROPOSED HOTEL DEVELOPMENT


HOTEL FACILITY PROGRAM - PKF ESTIMATES



Capitalizing on the world class beach location, the hotel facility program includes a 2,000 sq. ft., 70 seat all

day restaurant with a 30 seat beach-side patio that would also be open seasonally. With full kitchen facilities

on-site, the hotel would be able to offer a limited amount of in-room dining to its guests as well.

The proposed facility program would also include approximately 3,500 sq. ft. of flexible meeting space. The

meeting space would be comprised of a main ballroom/banquet room with seating capacity for 150 guests,

two breakout rooms with seating capacity for 30 to 50 guests and an executive boardroom. Food and

beverage for the meeting and conference space would be serviced in-house with full kitchen facilities on-site.

Inclusive of the hotel lobby, public areas, mechanical rooms and back of house support areas, the proposed

the hotel facilities would require a total GFA of approximately 46,800 sq.ft., an average of 585 sq.ft./room.

While a formal capital budget has not been prepared for the subject development, our experience in the

industry and knowledge of comparable new build hotel construction projects would indicate that the capital

cost for the proposed upper mid-scale, or upscale, select service, branded, hotel would be in the range of

$135,000 to $145,000 per room (excluding land cost) or between of $10.8 and $11.6 million. For the purpose

of our analysis we have utilized the approximate cost of $141,000 per room or $11.3 million total.

Based on our experience in the industry and knowledge of comparable new build hotel construction projects,

the proposed hotel development would require approximately 2.5 acres of the total 9.7-acre subject site. It is

recommended that the hotel be developed in the north-eastern quadrant of the property, as identified in

Exhibit 2-2, bordering the commercial area of Beach Area 1 and acting as a transition into the proposed

residential development on the site.



2.5.2 Proposed Residential Development Program

The following report contemplates the development of mid-tier, medium-density residential units, such as

town-homes, on the balance, approximately 7.2 acres, of the subject site. Assuming a density of 20 to 30

residential units per acre as identified by municipal planning representatives, there is potential for 150-225

units to be developed on the west-side of the proposed hotel development.

PKF Consulting Inc. has provided these estimates as a discussion point for the proposed mixed-use

development used in our projections. We are not Planners or Architects and as such these estimates

should be used as a guideline for discussion only, and assumes that all 9.7 acres are fully

developable.

2.6 Conclusion

In terms of its location, visibility and access, the Beach Area 2 site in Wasaga Beach is considered to be very

suitable for a mixed used development, incorporating both residential and hotel accommodation components.

The site is considered to be well located within the market for both a hotel development and a residential

development and is in reasonable proximity to Collingwood, Barrie and the Greater Toronto Area. The site

benefits from its frontage on Wasaga Beach, as well as its proximity to supporting amenities such as

restaurants and retail stores, that are open seasonally, within the Beach Area 1 zone.

Furthermore, the proximity to surrounding recreational amenities and tourism attractions, such as the Blue

Mountain Ski Resort, snowmobile trails, golf courses and the Rec-Plex, also bode well for the prospect of a

hotel development on the subject site. However, the absence of local corporate or industrial demand

generators may present a challenge in realizing weeknight and shoulder season demand levels.



EXHIBIT 2-1

SITE PLAN – BEACH AREA 2



EXHIBIT 2-2

RECOMMENDED DEVELOPMENT LAYOUT



3.0 ECONOMIC OVERVIEW

3.1 Introduction

The market potential of hotel properties are influenced by National, Provincial and local economic conditions.

Accordingly, the analysis has included a review of recent economic performance in Canada, the Province of

Ontario and for the Town of Wasaga Beach and the Town of Collingwood specifically, in order to assess

potential implications for the accommodation market and the subject hotel.

3.2 National & Provincial Economic Indicators

After posting Real GDP growth of approximately 2.0% in 2013, Canada is expected to continue to experience

modest positive economic growth in 2014 and 2015. The challenging global economic performance, and the

uncertainty of US economic performance, are some of the factors that continue to moderate growth in

Canada and, consequently, in Ontario in the near term.

TABLE 3-1 REAL GDP (% CHANGE)

CANADA & ONTARIO

2000-2012 2013 (f) 2014(f) 2015(f)

Real GDP – Canada 2.2 2.0 2.2 2.5

Real GDP – Ontario 1.9 1.5 2.0 2.2

Source: Scotiabank Group, Global Forecast Update, March 26, 2014

The Scotiabank Global Forecast Update released March 26, 2014, projects that the annual gross domestic

product (GDP) growth outlook for the Canadian economy for 2014 to be 2.2%. This level of growth is the

result of strengthening exports and business investment tempered by more moderate consumer and housing

activity. Similarly, Scotiabank has forecasted a 1.5% GDP growth for Ontario in 2013 and a 2.0% increase in

2014. Ontario’s economic growth has slowed since 2010, when its GDP grew by 3.4%. Both the Province and

Country are anticipated to realize growth above 2.0% in 2015.

TABLE 3-2 EMPLOYMENT GROWTH (% CHANGE)

CANADA & ONTARIO

2000-2012 2013 (f) 2014 (f) 2015(f)

Employment Growth – Canada 1.5 1.3 1.0 1.2

Employment Growth – Ontario 1.4 1.4 0.9 1.1

Source: Scotiabank Group, Global Forecast Update, March 26, 2014



The modest gains in private sector employment, especially in the education and health care sectors, are

expected to offset the public sector cuts in the province of Ontario, which has the largest number of public

employees in Canada. Scotia Bank is expecting Ontario’s employment rate to grow by 0.9% in 2014 and then

1.1% in 2015. National employment is expected to grow by 1.0% in 2014 and 1.2% in 2015.

3.3 National & Provincial Travel Forecasts

In the Fall of 2013, The Conference Board of Canada released their Travel Market Outlooks for 2013 - 2017,

which project moderate growth for Canada and Ontario across all travel segments. After posting modest

growth of 1.3% in 2013, National total overnight visitation is projected to grow by stronger levels of 2.1% in

2014, and 2.7% in 2015, while total overnight visitation to Ontario is projected to increase by 2.0% in 2014

and 2.9% 2015.

TABLE 3-3 TOTAL OVERNIGHT VISITATION (% CHANGE)

CANADA & ONTARIO

2013(f) 2014(f) 2015(f) 2016(f) 2017(f)

Canada 1.3 2.1 2.7 2.3 2.5

Ontario 0.9 2.0 2.9 2.2 2.5 Source: Conference Board of Canada Travel Market Outlooks, Fall 2013; Statistics Canada

National domestic overnight travel is estimated to grow between 2.2% and 2.7% per annum from 2014 to

2017. Domestic overnight visitation is projected to account for 124.4 million visits, or over 86% of total

visitation to Canada by 2017. Similarly, in Ontario, domestic travel will account for approximately 85% of

overnight travel by 2017, generating more than 46.4 million overnight visits. The domestic market is

forecasted to see growth of 2.1% in 2014. In 2015, domestic pleasure travel to Ontario is projected to grow

3.5% as the City of Toronto and surrounding municipalities host the PanAm Games.

TABLE 3-4 OVERNIGHT VISITATION – DOMESTIC ORIGIN (% CHANGE)

CANADA & ONTARIO

2013(f) 2014(f) 2015(f) 2016(f) 2017(f)

Canada 1.4 2.2 2.7 2.3 2.6

Business 1.5 2.3 2.6 2.6 2.3

Pleasure 1.4 2.3 3.0 2.3 2.8

Ontario 1.0 2.1 2.9 2.3 2.5

Business 0.4 2.1 2.5 2.3 2.0

Pleasure 1.1 2.1 3.5 2.1 2.9 Source: Conference Board of Canada Travel Market Outlooks, Fall 2013; Statistics Canada



The U.S. travel to Canada is expected to grow by 1.6% in 2014 with modest improvement in the U.S.

economy. Continued moderate growth is expected for the U.S. market between 2014 and 2017 at rates

between 1.6% and 2.1%. The U.S. visitation to Ontario is expected to contract slightly in 2013 and then grow

at rates that generally mirror the National levels from 2014 to 2017.

TABLE 3-5 OVERNIGHT VISITATION – U.S. ORIGIN (% CHANGE)

CANADA & ONTARIO

2013(f) 2014(f) 2015(f) 2016(f) 2017(f)

Canada 0.7 1.6 2.0 2.1 1.6

Ontario -0.5 1.6 2.1 1.8 1.7 Source: Conference Board of Canada Travel Market Outlooks, Fall 2013; Statistics Canada

The overseas market in Canada is projected to see continued growth of 2.5% in 2014. Going forward this

segment is expected to post healthy growth of between 3.1% and 3.7% per annum through to 2017. Similarly,

this market in Ontario is projected to see growth of 2.5% in 2014 and growth of between 3.5% and 3.9% from

2015 to 2017.

TABLE 3-6 OVERNIGHT VISITATION - OVERSEAS ORIGIN (% CHANGE)

CANADA & ONTARIO

2013(f) 2014(f) 2015(f) 2016(f) 2017(f)

Canada 1.5 2.5 3.1 3.3 3.7

Ontario 2.6 2.5 3.5 3.4 3.9 Source: Conference Board of Canada Travel Market Outlooks, Fall 2013; Statistics Canada

The overseas segment is often touted as a major opportunity market for the tourism and accommodation

sectors, particularly countries like China with huge volumes of potential visitors. However, even with solid

annual growth, the overseas market is projected to generate less than 5% of the total overnight travel to

Canada by 2017, or about 2.2 million overnight visits to Ontario.

3.4 Town of Wasaga Beach

The Town of Wasaga Beach, while only incorporated in 1974, has a rich history as one of Ontario’s premier

summer tourist destinations dating back to the early 1800’s. The area’s original settlement was a logging and

fishing village settled along the shores of the Nottawasaga River, a main waterway that runs through the

Town today. In the early 1900’s the region progressively transformed into a popular tourist destination for the

military families at nearby Base Borden, and Toronto residents visiting the area to enjoy the 14 kilometers of

white-sand, freshwater beach.



Today the Town is part of Simcoe County and has a population of approximately 17,537 people. The area is

expected to continue to see strong population growth with the overall population projected to be 27,500

people by 2031 according to the Provincial Growth Plan.

The Town of Wasaga Beach is serviced by the main north-south highways of HWY 400 and 27, which direct

travelers to the Town of Wasaga Beach via County Road 92 and Highway 26. During the peak summer

months, the Town of Wasaga Beach has indicated that traffic congestion problems can occur. The congestion

issues are due in part to the increased visitation from cottagers and tourists and the lack of road lanes, as

currently the primary access routes within the town proper are two lane highways.

The nearest local airport to the Town of Wasaga Beach is the Town of Collingwood Municipal Airport. It is

equipped with a 5,000-foot jet runway capable of handling small jets. Additionally, the Town of Wasaga Beach

is approximately 125 km drive from by Lester B. Pearson International Airport, which has daily flights to most

major national and international destinations.

3.4.1 Economic Development

The Town of Wasaga Beach has an estimated labour force of 7,745 persons with an unemployment rate of

7.7%. The Service sector represents the largest industry by labour force in Wasaga Beach accounting for

29.2% of jobs. The Trades/Transport/Equipment Operators sector accounts for 17.3% and the Business

Finance/Administration sector accounts for 13.3% of jobs in the Town of Wasaga Beach. Table 3-7 provides

the summary of labour force occupations for the Town of Wasaga Beach.



TABLE 3-7

OCCUPATION / LABOUR FORCE STATISTICS


Occupations People

Employed %

Management 775 10.0%

Business; finance and administration 1,030 13.3%

Natural and applied sciences 295 3.8%

Health occupations 415 5.4%

Education; Law and Social; Community; Government 930 12.0%

Art; Culture; Recreation and Sport 170 2.2%

Sales and Service 2,265 29.2%

Trades; Transport and Equipment Operators 1,340 17.3%

Natural Resources; Agriculture and Related Production 100 1.3%

Manufacturing and Utilities 320 4.1%

Other 105 1.4%

Total Labour Force 7,745 100.0%

According to Economic Development and Planning officials, the Town of Wasaga Beach continues to see

strong residential building growth. Due to its proximity to Toronto, there is demand for cottage or weekend

properties and retirement residential located near the Beach. There are currently approximately 15 residential

projects under construction representing approximately 2,500 units/lots and an additional 25 projects

representing approximately 2,700 units/lots actively progressing through the planning and approval process.

Table 3-8 provides the historic building permit values for the Town of Wasaga Beach.

TABLE 3-8

PERMITS ISSUED & BUILDING PERMIT VALUES

TOWN OF WASAGA BEACH

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Total Permits Issued 658 664 663 578 647

Estimated Value of Residential

Construction ($) $43,136,000 $60,006,000 $58,104,000 $41,671,000 $68,982,000

Estimated Value of Non-

Residential Construction ($) $4,954,000 $2,160,000 $5,277,000 $1,078,000 $1,877,000

Total Construction Value $48,090,000 $62,166,000 $63,381,000 $42,749,000 $70,859,000

Source: Town of Wasaga Beach

In 2013, total building permit values in the Town of Wasaga Beach reached $71 million compared to $43

million in 2012, and $63 million in 2011. Construction in Wasaga Beach has been primarily residential in

recent years with residential development accounting for 97.4% of total construction, or $69 million, in 2013.



3.4.2 Tourism

The Town of Wasaga Beach attracts approximately 1.16 million visitors annually according to the Town of

Wasaga Beach Economic Development Department. The primary driver of visitation demand is Wasaga

Beach itself, the world's longest freshwater beach. In the summer months “The Beach” is bustling with tourism

activity as a popular beach volleyball and sunbathing destination. There are six public beach areas numbered

from 1 to 6; the higher the number, the smaller and less crowded the area. Pedestrians along Beach Area 1

and 2 benefit from a boardwalk running along the beach. The boardwalk along Beach Area 1 has been

developed with a number of seasonal restaurants, bars and retail stores.

Also located in the Town of Wasaga Beach are Wasaga Beach Provincial Park and the Blueberry Plains trail

system, which offers 30km of trails through the dunes area. Eco-tourism is a growing market as tourists

continue to explore the non-attraction based activities in the area. Peak season activities include golf,

biking/hiking, fishing and boating.

The Town’s waterfront location makes it accessible to marine traffic. There are four public launch facilities in

the Town of Wasaga Beach. Two of these facilities, Sturgeon Point Marina and Wasaga Marine provide

docking facilities.

Wasaga Beach also provides a number of winter activities. In the winter, there are miles of fresh groomed

trails for snowmobiling in the region. Cross country skiers enjoy access to local trails, while downhill skiers

have central access to Blue Mountain, Horseshoe Valley and Snow Valley ski resorts all located within 35

kilometers of Wasaga Beach.

The Town of Wasaga Beach is also home to Nancy Island Museum, this museum displays the original hull of

the Schooner HMS Nancy, which was sunk by the British Commander in the Nottawasaga River in 1814.

Open in the summer, the museum offers daily regular tours, special events and evening programs that take

place around a campfire.

The Town of Wasaga Beach hosts a number of well attended annual special events catered to both the local

resident population, and tourists alike. Most notable major events take place in the summer and fall months,

though events like Sledfest, an annual snowmobile festival, have strong support from the community and are

expected to grow in the future. Table 3-9 summarizes the major annual events in Wasaga Beach.



TABLE 3-9

MAJOR EVENT LISTING


Event Month Estimated

Attendance

Sledfest Jan 1,500

Snowman Mania - Family Day Weekend Feb 10,000

Easter Eggstravaganza Mar/Apr 3,000

Wasaga Beach Fest Jun 3,500

Canada Day Celebrations Jul 3,000

Not-So-Pro Volleyball Tournament Jul 3,500

Underground Series Jul 4,500

Wasaga Under Seige “A War of 1812 Experience” Aug 2,000

Corvette Weekend Aug 1,500

Multi-Sports Triathalon and Marathon Sep 1,000

Wasaga Beach Blues Sep 6,000

Funderland Dec 2,500

TOTAL 42,000 Source: Town of Wasaga Beach

Tourist accommodations within the Town of Wasaga Beach include motels, cottages, B&B’s and many

seasonal trailer parks and campgrounds.

3.5 Town of Collingwood

The Town of Collingwood is located approximately 20 kilometers west of the Town of Wasaga Beach and is

approximately 160 kilometers north of the Greater Toronto Area. According to the 2011 Census, Collingwood

has an estimated population of 19,241 residents, representing an 11.3% increase from the 2006 Census. In

the winter, the Town provides the largest concentration of downhill ski facilities (5 areas) with the some of the

highest verticals in the province. There is a growing base of spring/fall shoulder season recreational activities

such as golf, sailing, mountain biking, hiking and fishing. Collingwood’s proximity to southern Ontario’s large

and affluent year round markets (as well as winter markets in southern Michigan, Ohio and as far away as

Chicago), have helped the Collingwood area evolve into one of Ontario’s few, truly multi-season tourist and

vacation areas.

The largest single tourist draw to the Collingwood area is Blue Mountain, which sells over 750,000 lift tickets

each year. At 720 vertical feet and 2.5 miles long, Blue Mountain is Ontario’s largest mountain resort. With 36

runs, 4 terrain parks, 3 half-pipes, a snow-tubing park and 15 ski lifts the facility attracts a significant volume of

visitors to the area. The resort is also a regional meeting/conference destination and is increasingly becoming

a summer leisure destination for mountain biking, golf and hiking. With further development planned for the



resort and increased promotion by Intrawest, Blue Mountain is expected to continue to see an increase in

visitation in the coming years.

There are also a number of golf courses in Collingwood, including the nationally ranked Monterra Golf Course

at Blue Mountain Resorts, Georgian Bay Golf Club and Batteaux Creek Golf Club, located 6 kms south of

Collingwood. These courses help to position Collingwood as a golf course destination within Southern Ontario

and increase overall visitor volumes in the summer months.

In addition to the leisure market, a number of resorts in the Collingwood area also cater to the

meetings/convention market. Blue Mountain offers over 37,500 sq.ft of meeting space at the resort.

One of the other significant attractions in the Town is the Scenic Caves, which underwent a major

redevelopment and now includes a Nordic Ski Centre, treetop trails, Ontario’s longest suspension footbridge,

eco-adventure tours and 20 kilometres of trails.

Major festivals include the Collingwood Jazz and Blues Festival, Collingwood Music Festival, Collingwood

Elvis Festival and Dragon Boat Festival.

3.6 Conclusion

Overall, Town of Wasaga Beach and the Town of Collingwood have strong tourism presence with attractions

including, Wasaga Beach, Blue Mountain Resorts, the Scenic Caves and Nancy Island. The Town of

Collingwood draws meeting/conference business to the area year round which helps to support the

community. Both Wasaga Beach and Collingwood struggle with a lack of local corporate or industrial

business. Residential developments have been the most obvious signs of growth in recent years as visitors

increase the demand for summer cottages and retirement residential facilities. The Town of Wasaga Beach

expects the community to continue with moderate positive growth in the short to medium term.



4.0 COMPETITIVE ACCOMMODATION MARKET ANALYSIS

4.1 Introduction

The proposed hotel is to be located on Beach Area 2 in Wasaga Beach would compete within three

competitive accommodation markets; the local Wasaga Beach accommodation market; the regional

accommodation market, which includes supply in both Wasaga Beach and Collingwood; and on a broader

scale within the Ontario Resort accommodation market, which includes a mix of resorts in various locations

across the province.

4.2 Local Competitive Accommodation Market

The local Wasaga Beach accommodation market is comprised of approximately 22 motels, 42 cottage courts

and a number of independent bed and breakfasts. In total there are currently 126 licensed Tourist

Establishment properties in Wasaga Beach, comprising a total of 1,109 units. The majority of these

establishments are open only seasonally, during peak summer months. Additionally, the greater part of the

existing accommodation supply in Wasaga Beach is considered to be tired and does not satisfy the needs of

transient guests, especially for corporate demand and meeting/conference groups or sports teams. As such,

only 6 year-round establishments have been included within the local competitive market. These properties

have been included due to proximity of location, number of annual operating days, the commonality of room

night demand generators, and similar services, facilities and amenities. Table 4-1 summarizes the properties

that comprise the local competitive accommodation market.

TABLE 4-1 LOCAL COMPETITIVE ACCOMMODATION MARKET


Hotel Rooms Hotel Rooms

Saga Resort 21 Mermaid Motel & Cottage Court 15

Luau Resort 25 WuWu's Cabins 22

J&J Motel 12 Knightsbridge Inn 14

TOTAL 109 Source: PKF Consulting Inc.

Discussions with local stakeholders indicated that local accommodation establishments generally experience

strong demand in the peak summer months of June through September, particularly on weekends, with

occupancies in the 65 – 90% range. Peak season demand is primarily driven by tourists visiting the beach or

attending the many festivals and events in the area. In contrast, the general consensus is that off-season

demand is extremely limited, particularly on weekdays, due to the lack of tourism and corporate demand

generators during the winter months, with occupancies in the 10 – 25% range. Average daily rates within the



local market are generally in the $75 - $195 range during the peak season, and in the $40 - $85 range in the

off season.

The existing local accommodation product is, for the most part, small owner operated cottage courts, bed and

breakfasts, and exterior access motels. As previously noted, the majority of the product is tired and does not

satisfy the needs of transient guests, especially for corporate demand, meeting/conference groups and sports

teams. A new build, select service, branded property with a beachfront location would be superior to the

existing product in the Wasaga Beach market.

4.3 Regional Competitive Accommodation Market

The proposed subject hotel development would compete regionally with the Wasaga Beach properties

discussed in Section 4.2, as well as with properties also located in Collingwood. This combined regional

market is considered to be the primary competitive market for the proposed hotel. The regional Wasaga

Beach/Collingwood competitive accommodation market is comprised of 7 traditional hotels and approximately

16 motels and independent accommodations which provide a total of 1,647 guest rooms as of December

2013. These properties have been included due to proximity of location, the commonality of room night

demand generators, and similar services, facilities and amenities. Table 4-2 summarizes the properties that

comprise the regional competitive accommodation market.

TABLE 4-2 REGIONAL COMPETITIVE ACCOMMODATION MARKET

WASAGA BEACH/COLLINGWOOD


Days Inn & Suites Collingwood 76 Holiday Inn Express Collingwood 74

Mountain Springs Resort 144 Westin Trillium House 222

Blue Mountain Resorts* 612 Cranberry Resort 78

Blue Mountain Inn 103 Collingwood Motel Supply 229

Saga Resort 21 Mermaid Motel & Cottage Court 15

Luau Resort 25 WuWu's Cabins 22

J&J Motel 12 Knightsbridge Inn 14

TOTAL 1,647 * Includes Mosaic at Blue, Seasons at Blue, Weider Lodge and the Grand Georgian Source: PKF Consulting Inc.

The competitive market historic occupancy and average daily rate information for the 2009-2013 period is

summarized in Table 4-3. The detailed information has been provided in Exhibit 4-1.



TABLE 4-3

HISTORIC MARKET PERFORMANCE


2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Rooms 1,647 1,647 1,647 1,647 1,647

Available Room Nights 601,155 601,155 601,155 601,155 601,155

Occupied Room Nights 258,287 262,552 254,384 261,684 266,368

Occupancy 43.0% 43.7% 42.3% 43.5% 44.3%

Average Daily Rate $150.53 $154.11 $157.33 $160.97 $163.43

RevPar $64.68 $67.31 $66.57 $70.07 $72.45 Source: PKF Consulting Inc.

As summarized, over the 2009 – 2013 historic period occupancy in the regional Wasaga Beach/Collingwood

accommodation market has been in the mid 40% range. The market occupancy declined in 2011 to 42.3%,

following a similar trend to the other regions in Ontario that year, and due in part to a less than ideal start to

the winter ski season for the regional market. Since then, the market has experienced year over year demand

growth improving occupancy to 44.3% in 2013.

The market Average Daily Rate has seen relatively consistent growth over the historic period from $150.53 in

2009 to $163.43 in 2013 for a total of 8.6% over the 5 year period or an annual compounded rate of 2.1%.

4.3.1 Regional Market Mix by Segment

Demand for hotel accommodation within the competitive regional Wasaga Beach/Collingwood

accommodation market consists of four broad demand segments: the Corporate/Commercial segment; the

Leisure/Tourist segment; the Meeting/Conference segment; and Government/Other segment. On the

basis of PKF market research, estimated market segmentation for the regional competitive market in 2013 is

presented in Table 4-4.

TABLE 4-4 MARKET SEGMENTATION - 2013

WASAGA BEACH/COLLINGWOOD COMPETITIVE MARKET

Segment Occupied Room

Nights Percentage of

Demand

Corporate/Commercial 12,992 4.9%

Meeting/Conference 85,190 32.0%

Leisure/Tourist 154,874 58.1%

Government/Other 13,311 5.0%

TOTAL 266,368 100.0% Source: PKF Consulting



The Corporate/Commercial market segment consists of rooms’ demand, which is generated by, and

specifically related to, business and corporate activity. Within this market, both individual and volume (or

preferred) corporate accounts are included.

The Meeting/Conference market segment consists of rooms’ demand generated for the purpose of attending

meetings and/or conferences internally within area hotels, which offer public assembly facilities. Conference

delegates who may be attending a meeting or conference elsewhere in the vicinity may also generate

demand.

The Leisure/Tourist market segment consists of rooms’ demand generated by independent tourists, group

tours, and a variety of sports teams/events throughout the year. It includes individuals and families visiting as

tourists, the “VFR” market (visiting friends or relatives). This market also consists of demand generated by

groups whose primary purpose is of a leisure or transient nature and not related to corporate business.

The Government/Other market segment consists of demand generated by crew contracts, government

officials, travel agents, hotel employees, and to a lesser extent, smaller specialty markets. Demand in this

segment is typically represented by sources, which are highly rate sensitive and are normally provided with

significantly discounted room rates.

The regional Wasaga Beach/Collingwood market is largely a year-round Leisure destination, with a strong

Meeting/ Conference base generated by the Collingwood hotels. There is little in the way of demand

generated by Corporate segment which is a result of the absence of industry and major corporate/commercial

employers in the area.

4.4 Ontario Resort Competitive Market

The proposed hotel would also compete on a broader scale with the overall Ontario Resort Market, in

particular within the Leisure and Meeting/Conference segments. The Ontario Resort competitive

accommodation market includes Resort and Inn properties located across Ontario and is comprised of 33

traditional resorts and independent inns which provide a total of 3,623 guest rooms as of December 2013.

These properties have been included due to the nature of their locations as destination resorts, the

commonality of room night demand generators, and similar services, facilities and amenities. Table 4-5

summarizes the properties that comprise the Ontario Resort competitive accommodation market.



TABLE 4-5 REGIONAL COMPETITIVE ACCOMMODATION MARKET



Deerhurst Resort 403 Millcroft Inn 52

The Briars 88 Old Mill Inn 60

Westin Trillium 222 Pillar & Post 123

Taboo 61 Benmiller Inn 60

Blue Mountain 784 Idlewyld Inn*** 23

Horseshoe Valley Resort 102 Ste. Anne's Country Inn & Spa 27

Talisman 87 Inn at Christie's Mill 42

White Oaks 220 Queen's Landing 142

Sherwood Resort 49 Moffat Inn 24

Rocky Crest Resort 65 Langdon Hall 52

Pinestone Resort 103 Touchstone Resort 33

Nottawasaga 269 Balance of Inns 103

Hockley Valley 104 Elora Mill Inn* 32

J W Marriott, The Rosseau 220 Delta Grandview** 129

Prince of Wales 110

TOTAL 3,623 *Closed in 2011 ** Closed in 2012 ***Closed in 2013 and is anticipated to re-open in 2014 Source: PKF Consulting Inc.

The Ontario Resort competitive market historic occupancy and average daily rate information for the 2009-

2013 period is summarized in Table 4-6. The detailed information has been provided in Exhibit 4-2.

TABLE 4-6

HISTORIC MARKET PERFORMANCE

ONTARIO RESORTS

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Rooms 3,789 3,785 3,759 3,629 3,623

Available Room Nights 1,382,916 1,381,456 1,371,966 1,324,585 1,322,395


Occupancy 45.3% 48.3% 48.8% 50.9% 50.3%

Average Daily Rate $181.09 $188.07 $191.55 $195.53 $197.83

RevPar $82.06 $90.91 $93.57 $99.44 $99.52 Source: PKF Consulting Inc.

As summarized, over the 2009 – 2013 historic period occupancy in the Ontario Resort accommodation

market has been in the mid 40% to 50% range. The market occupancy increased steadily from 45.3% in 2009

to 50.9% in 2012, before declining to 50.3% in 2013. It should be noted that over the historic period there has

been a reduction in supply with the closure of four rooms at The Briars in 2010, the closure of the Elora Inn in



2011, and the transition of the Delta Grandview to an independent, fractional ownership resort in 2012. The

Idlewyld Inn also closed in late 2013 under new ownership, but is expected to re-open in the spring of 2014

after undergoing an extensive renovation. The changes in supply accounted for a decrease in available guest

rooms of 0.7% in 2011, 3.5% in 2012 and 0.2% in 2013. Without the closure of these collective 166 rooms

market occupancy would have been 48.5% in 2011, 48.7% in 2012 and 48.1% in 2013.

The market Average Daily Rate has seen relatively consistent growth over the historic period from $181.09 in

2009 to $197.83 in 2013 for a total of 9.2% over the 5 year period or an annual compounded rate of 2.2%.

4.4.1 Ontario Resort Market Mix by Segment

Demand for hotel accommodation within the competitive Ontario Resort accommodation market consists of

four broad demand segments: the Corporate/Commercial segment; the Leisure/Tourist segment; the

Meeting/Conference segment; and Government/Other segment. On the basis of PKF market research,

estimated market segmentation for the regional competitive market in 2013 is presented in Table 4-7.

TABLE 4-7 MARKET SEGMENTATION - 2013

ONTARIO RESORT COMPETITIVE MARKET

Segment Occupied Room

Nights Percentage of

Demand

Corporate/Commercial 16,661 2.5%

Meeting/Conference 290,123 43.6%

Leisure/Tourist 349,689 52.6%

Government/Other 8,803 1.3%

TOTAL 665,276 100.0% Source: PKF Consulting

Similar to the regional Wasaga Beach/Collingwood market, the Ontario Resort market is largely driven by the

Leisure segment, with a strong Meeting/ Conference base. There is little in the way of demand generated by

Corporate or Government/Other segments segment which is a result of primarily the locational characteristics

of these properties.

4.5 Proposed New Supply – Regional Competitive Market

Over the historic period the competitive market supply has remained relatively constant with no new

properties entering the local or regional markets over this time period.



Based on discussions with representatives of the Town of Wasaga Beach, it is understood that the Wasaga

River Docks Suites, a mixed-use development, located on Mosley Street at 11th Street, is currently

progressing through the planning approval process. The majority of the building that will become the hotel

within the proposed Wasaga River Docks Suites development was constructed as part of previous

development project that failed to reach completion over the past few years. As the construction of the

property is for the most part complete, our projections anticipate this new hotel to come on line by the summer

of 2014. Based on discussions with representatives from the Town, it is understood that the Wasaga River

Docks Suites would be an independent mid-scale limited service hotel. The opening of the proposed 25-room

Wasaga River Docks Suites, estimated to be mid-2014 represents a 0.7% increase in supply in the regional

market in 2014, and a 0.8% increase in 2015.

With the exception of the Wasaga River Docks Suites development, no additional new supply has been

projected to enter the competitive market over the projection period.

The subject hotel, with 80 rooms, has been projected to open on January 1, 2016, representing a 4.8%

increase in supply in the competitive market in that year.

Exhibit 4-3 reflects the projected supply changes in the competitive accommodation market over the 2014-

2020 projection period.

4.6 Competitive Market Demand Projections

4.6.1 Regional Wasaga Beach/Collingwood Market

The demand projections prepared for the primary regional Wasaga Beach/Collingwood competitive market

are based on the current market dynamics and anticipated changes in demand throughout the projection

period. Exhibit 4-4 provides the projected demand and average daily rate levels for the competitive

accommodation market over the 2016 to 2020 period. The following table summarizes these projections.

TABLE 4-8 MARKET OCCUPANCY & AVERAGE DAILY RATE PROJECTIONS

WASAGA BEACH/COLLINGWOOD COMPETITIVE MARKET

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Available Room Nights 610,280 610,280 639,480 639,480 639,480 639,480 639,480

Occupied Room Nights 267,844 272,773 283,145 286,397 288,671 290,965 293,279

Occupancy 43.9% 44.7% 44.3% 44.8% 45.1% 45.5% 45.9%

Average Daily Rate (ADR) $167.60 $171.79 $176.09 $180.49 $185.00 $189.63 $194.37 Source: PKF Consulting Inc.



The demand in the competitive market is projected to grow at a rate of 0.6% in 2014 and 1.8% in 2015. The

increased demand growth projected for 2015 is primarily induced demand as a result of the Wasaga River

Docks Suites entering the local market. In 2016, when the proposed subject hotel enters the market, it is

projected to grow by 3.8%, with an additional 1.1% demand growth projected in 2017. This demand growth

will be largely supply induced demand as a result of the proposed hotel entering the market. In 2019 and

2020 the market is projected to experience stabilized demand growth of 0.8% per annum.

The projections for supply induced demand growth over the 2016 to 2017 period are based on the following

assumptions;

Corporate/Commercial demand growth and Government/Other demand growth will be the result of new demand entering or re-entering the market because of the availability of branded overnight accommodation in Wasaga Beach.

Meeting/ Conference occupied room night demand will enter the market because of the availability of professional meeting space for small to mid-sized groups and the availability of branded overnight accommodation in Wasaga Beach. Additionally, based on the location and proposed facilities for the hotel, Meeting/Conference occupied room night demand in the form of wedding groups will also enter the market because of the availability of quality banquet facilities and overnight accommodation;

Leisure demand growth will be the result of new demand entering or re-entering the market because of the availability of branded overnight accommodation in Wasaga Beach. The new product will relieve some of the capacity constraints in the area, especially during tournaments, large festivals and events and during the busy summer period.

Although the proposed hotel will generate some additional demand for the competitive market, the market is

projected to see relatively stable growth and will continue to perform in the mid 40% occupancy range over

the projection period.

While the competitive market experienced 1.6% growth in average daily rate in 2013, the 2010 to 2012 period

saw growth rates in the 2.1% to 2.4% range. From 2014 to 2020 the average daily rate is projected to

increase by 2.5% per annum. A 2.5% growth rate is indicative of a market that is growing in a moderate, but

positive manner, and generally reflects the current and anticipated rate of inflation.

4.6.2 Ontario Resort Market

The demand projections prepared for the Ontario Resort competitive market are based on the current market

dynamics and anticipated changes in demand throughout the projection period. Exhibit 4-5 provides the

projected demand and average daily rate levels for the competitive Ontario Resort accommodation market

over the 2016 to 2020 period. The following table summarizes these projections.



TABLE 4-9 MARKET OCCUPANCY & AVERAGE DAILY RATE PROJECTIONS

ONTARIO RESORT COMPETITIVE MARKET

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Available Room Nights 1,322,395 1,324,585 1,353,785 1,353,785 1,353,785 1,353,785 1,353,785

Occupied Room Nights 671,801 678,392 685,047 691,768 698,556 705,411 712,334

Occupancy 50.8% 51.2% 50.6% 51.1% 51.6% 52.1% 52.6%

Average Daily Rate $202.77 $207.84 $213.04 $218.36 $223.82 $229.42 $235.15 Source: PKF Consulting Inc.

The Ontario Resort market is projected to see relatively stable growth of 1.0% throughout the projection

period and will continue to perform in the low 50% occupancy range over the projection period.

Average daily rate for the Ontario Resort market is projected to increase by 2.5% per annum from 2014 to

2020. A 2.5% growth rate is indicative of a market that is growing in a moderate, but positive manner, and

generally reflects the current and anticipated rate of inflation, and is in line with the Ontario Resort market’s

compounded growth rate of 2.2% from 2009 to 2013.

4.6.3 Seasonality of Demand

Occupied room night demand for both the regional Wasaga Beach/Collingwood market and the Ontario

Resort market is highly seasonal in nature. The regional Wasaga Beach/Collingwood market achieves higher

occupancies in Q1 due to demand generated by the Blue Mountain ski area. Table 4-10 summarizes the

seasonality of demand for each market.

TABLE 4-10

SEASONALITY OF DEMAND

ONTARIO RESORT & WASAGA BEACH/COLLINGWOOD MARKETS

Occupancy %

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

Regional Wasaga Beach/Collingwood Market 54% 42% 72% 41%

Ontario Resort Market 40% 46% 70% 45% Source: PKF Consulting Inc.



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rate

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80

.00

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00

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20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

OCCUPANCY (%)

AVERAGE DAILY RATE ($)

YE

AR

S

HIS

TO

RIC

MA

RK

ET

PE

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OR

MA

NC

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NN

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rag

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to D

ate

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PE

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IVE

MA

RK

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20

09

20

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cc

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50

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era

ge

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ily

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te$

18

1.0

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RK

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TH

20

09

20

10

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20

12

20

13

20

13

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14

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aila

ble

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om

sna

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%

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%

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mp

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al

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wth

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ve

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ied

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om

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hts

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23

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te2

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%

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%

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MP

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09

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20

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12

20

13

OCCUPANCY (%)

AVERAGE DAILY RATE ($)

YE

AR

S

HIS

TO

RIC

MA

RK

ET

PE

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pp

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10

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6

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AS

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A R

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OC

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ITE

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estim

ate

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pe

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g J

uly

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41

21

00

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12

20

14

2B

AL

AN

CE

OF

WA

SA

GA

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ER

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CK

S S

UIT

ES

13

10

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bto

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51

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up

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52

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NS

20

13

20

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20

15

20

16

20

17

20

18

20

19

20

20

Ex

isti

ng

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pp

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71

,64

71

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71

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71

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71

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w P

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40

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12

12

12

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OF

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GA

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00

13

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tal

01

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tal S

up

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an

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ha

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e:

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onsultin

g I

nc.

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HIB

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SA

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AC

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AR

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SU

PP

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NS



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ma

nd

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jec

tio

ns

20

14

20

15

20

16

20

17

20

18

20

19

20

20

Co

rpo

rate

occup

ied

ro

om

nig

hts

13

,06

11

3,3

22

13

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3,7

24

13

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61

3,8

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13

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2

de

ma

nd

gro

wth

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%2

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%

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eti

ng

/Co

nfe

ren

ce

occup

ied

ro

om

nig

hts

85

,61

68

6,9

00

90

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69

0,8

28

91

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29

1,7

39

92

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7

de

ma

nd

gro

wth

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%1

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%0

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0.5

%

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isu

re

occup

ied

ro

om

nig

hts

15

5,7

89

15

8,9

05

16

5,2

61

16

7,7

91

16

9,4

69

17

1,1

64

17

2,8

75

de

ma

nd

gro

wth

0.6

%2

.0%

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%1

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1.0

%1

.0%

1.0

%

Go

v't

/Oth

er

occup

ied

ro

om

nig

hts

13

,37

81

3,6

46

13

,91

91

4,0

53

14

,12

31

4,1

94

14

,26

5

de

ma

nd

gro

wth

0.5

%2

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%0

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0.5

%

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rke

t P

roje

cti

on

s2

01

42

01

52

01

62

01

72

01

82

01

92

02

0

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tal D

em

an

d

occup

ied

ro

om

nig

hts

26

7,8

44

27

2,7

73

28

3,1

45

28

6,3

97

28

8,6

71

29

0,9

65

29

3,2

79

de

ma

nd

gro

wth

0.6

%1

.8%

3.8

%1

.1%

0.8

%0

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0.8

%

To

tal S

up

ply

ava

ilab

le r

oo

m n

ights

61

0,2

80

61

0,2

80

63

9,4

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63

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80

63

9,4

80

63

9,4

80

su

pp

ly g

row

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0.0

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0.0

%0

.0%

0.0

%0

.0%

Ma

rke

t O

cc

up

an

cy

43

.9%

44

.7%

44

.3%

44

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45

.1%

45

.5%

45

.9%

Ma

rke

t A

ve

rag

e D

aily

Ra

te$

16

7.6

0$

17

1.7

9$

17

6.0

9$

18

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9$

18

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0$

18

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3$

19

4.3

7

Ma

rke

t R

ev

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r$

73

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$7

6.7

8$

77

.97

$8

0.8

3$

83

.51

$8

6.2

8$

89

.14

rate

gro

wth

2.5

%2

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2.5

%2

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2.5

%2

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%

Sourc

e:

PK

F C

onsultin

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nc.

EX

HIB

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-4

WA

SA

GA

BE

AC

H / C

OL

LIN

GW

OO

D M

AR

KE

T

AC

CO

MM

OD

AT

ION

MA

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ET

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NS



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ma

nd

Pro

jec

tio

ns

20

14

20

15

20

16

20

17

20

18

20

19

20

20

Co

rpo

rate

occup

ied

ro

om

nig

hts

16

,74

41

6,8

28

16

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21

6,9

96

17

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17

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3

de

ma

nd

gro

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0.5

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%

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eti

ng

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nfe

ren

ce

occup

ied

ro

om

nig

hts

29

3,0

24

29

5,9

54

29

8,9

14

30

1,9

03

30

4,9

22

30

7,9

71

31

1,0

51

de

ma

nd

gro

wth

1.0

%1

.0%

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%1

.0%

1.0

%1

.0%

1.0

%

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isu

re

occup

ied

ro

om

nig

hts

35

3,1

86

35

6,7

18

36

0,2

85

36

3,8

88

36

7,5

27

37

1,2

02

37

4,9

14

de

ma

nd

gro

wth

1.0

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.0%

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%1

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%1

.0%

1.0

%

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v't

/Oth

er

occup

ied

ro

om

nig

hts

8,8

47

8,8

91

8,9

36

8,9

80

9,0

25

9,0

71

9,1

16

de

ma

nd

gro

wth

0.5

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%0

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0.5

%

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rke

t P

roje

cti

on

s2

01

42

01

52

01

62

01

72

01

82

01

92

02

0

To

tal D

em

an

d

occup

ied

ro

om

nig

hts

67

1,8

01

67

8,3

92

68

5,0

47

69

1,7

68

69

8,5

56

70

5,4

11

71

2,3

34

de

ma

nd

gro

wth

1.0

%1

.0%

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%1

.0%

1.0

%1

.0%

1.0

%

To

tal S

up

ply

ava

ilab

le r

oo

m n

ights

1,3

22

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51

,32

4,5

85

1,3

53

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51

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3,7

85

1,3

53

,78

51

,35

3,7

85

1,3

53

,78

5

su

pp

ly g

row

th0

.0%

0.2

%2

.2%

0.0

%0

.0%

0.0

%0

.0%

Ma

rke

t O

cc

up

an

cy

50

.8%

51

.2%

50

.6%

51

.1%

51

.6%

52

.1%

52

.6%

Ma

rke

t A

ve

rag

e D

aily

Ra

te$

20

2.7

7$

20

7.8

4$

21

3.0

4$

21

8.3

6$

22

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2$

22

9.4

2$

23

5.1

5

Ma

rke

t R

ev

Pa

r$

10

3.0

1$

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0$

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9$

11

9.5

4$

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3.7

3

rate

gro

wth

2.5

%2

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2.5

%2

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%2

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%

Sourc

e:

PK

F C

onsultin

g I

nc.

EX

HIB

IT 4

-5

ON

TA

RIO

RE

SO

RT

S M

AR

KE

T

AC

CO

MM

OD

AT

ION

MA

RK

ET

PR

OJ

EC

TIO

NS



5.0 SUBJECT PROPERTY OCCUPANCY & AVERAGE DAILY RATE PROJECTIONS

5.1 Introduction

Our analysis of the subject property projections examines future occupancy and market penetration levels for

the proposed hotel based on numerous factors including, economic influences and the actual and projected

supply/demand relationship in the competitive markets.

In projecting occupancy performance of the proposed hotel over the projection period, the concept of “fair

market share” has been utilized. This concept states that a property will attract rooms demand in the same

proportion as its share of rooms supply. The basic assumption is that all things are equal however; different

properties achieve different levels of market penetration based on various competitive factors including

location, product and facilities, customer preferences, pricing and marketing strategies. Market penetrations in

excess of 100.0% indicate that a hotel possesses competitive advantages relative to the market as whole,

competitive weaknesses are reflected in penetrations of less than 100.0%.

In the following paragraphs, the projected competitive position of the subject hotel is assessed for each major

market segment, relative to both the regional Wasaga Beach/Collingwood market and the broader Ontario

Resort market, to arrive at overall market penetration and occupancy estimates. Exhibit 5-1A summarizes the

projected market position of the property over the projection period within the regional Wasaga

Beach/Collingwood market. Exhibit 5-1B summarizes the projected market position of the property over the

projection period within the broader Ontario Resort market.

5.2 Corporate/Commercial Segment

The Corporate/Commercial market segment consists of rooms’ demand, which is generated by, and

specifically related to, business and corporate activity. Within this market, both individual and volume (or

preferred) corporate accounts are included.

The proposed subject hotel is projected to capture approximately 693 occupied room nights within the

Corporate/Commercial segment in its stabilized year, 2018, representing 4.0% of the hotel’s total demand.

The majority of these occupied room nights within the Corporate/Commercial segment will be captured over

the Sunday through Thursday period throughout the year. As the proposed hotel would be the only branded

hotel in Wasaga Beach, it could reasonably attract a substantial share of the existing corporate business.

Additionally, a portion of occupied room nights within this segment would be induced demand, or demand that



has historically chosen to stay in markets such as Barrie due to a lack of adequate, branded product in

Wasaga Beach and is as such could be re-captured by the subject hotel.

5.2.1 Regional Wasaga Beach/Collingwood Market Performance – Corporate/Commercial

Segment

Relative to the regional Wasaga Beach/Collingwood market, the subject hotel is projected to penetrate the

Corporate/Commercial segment at 110.0% of its fair market share of demand in its stabilized year, 2018.

TABLE 5-1

SUBJECT PROPERTY MARKET PENETRATION

CORPORATE/COMMERCIAL SEGMENT

REGIONAL WASAGA BEACH/COLLINGWOOD MARKET

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Occupied Room Nights 651 674 693 693 693

Ratio to Total Demand 4.1% 4.0% 4.0% 4.0% 4.0%

Penetration Rate 105.0% 107.5% 110.0% 109.4% 108.9% Source: PKF Consulting Inc.

5.2.2 Ontario Resort Market Performance – Corporate / Commercial Segment

Relative to the Ontario Resort market, the subject hotel is projected to penetrate the Corporate/Commercial

segment at 188.1% of its fair market share of demand in its stabilized year, 2018.

TABLE 5-2


CORPORATE/COMMERCIAL SEGMENT

ONTARIO RESORT MARKET

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020




5.3 Meeting/Conference Segment

The Meeting/Conference market segment consists of rooms’ demand generated for the purpose of attending

meetings and/or conferences internally within area hotels, which offer public assembly facilities. Conference

delegates who may be attending a meeting or conference elsewhere in the vicinity may also generate

demand.



The proposed hotel is projected to capture approximately 5,189 occupied room nights within the

Meeting/Conference segment in its stabilized year, 2018, representing 29.8% of the hotel’s total demand.

Based on the facility program discussed in Section 2, the projections for the subject hotel have assumed that

the hotel will have one large banquet room (approximately 150 seats) and two smaller breakout rooms

(approximately 30-50 seats per room) and an executive boardroom, for meetings and events.

The proposed hotel will compete with the full service properties in Collingwood, as well as within the broader

Ontario Resort market, for small to mid-sized meetings/events. The subject hotel will have a world class,

beach location within a 2-hour drive of the GTA and Pearson International Airport and as such will attract

demand from the regional, provincial and national markets. The overall positioning of the hotel within this

segment is that of a “unique destination meeting/event experience” with the majority of delegates being from

out of town and requiring overnight accommodation. Additionally, based on the beachfront location of the

subject hotel, it is anticipated to be a popular wedding venue in the spring, summer and fall seasons.

Projections in this segment make the following assumptions:

The proposed hotel will capture approximately 60 Corporate/Social meetings and events to be held during the 52 week calendar year, about one event per week over this period. These events will attract an average of 60 - 70 attendees. Approximately 85% of the attendees will stay at least one night. These events will generate approximately 3,400 occupied room nights annually.

The proposed hotel will capture approximately 45 weddings to be held over the course of a year, primarily on weekends. These events will attract approximately 75 - 100 attendees. Approximately 25-50% of attendees will require overnight accommodation for at least one night, with peak season events having a greater out of town attendee mix. These events will generate about 1750 occupied room nights annually.

5.3.1 Regional Wasaga Beach/Collingwood Market Performance – Meeting/Conference Segment


Meeting/Conference segment at 124.5% of its fair market share of demand in its stabilized year, 2018.

TABLE 5-3


MEETING/CONFERENCE SEGMENT


2016 2017 2018 2019 2020






5.3.2 Ontario Resort Market Performance – Meeting/Conference Segment

Relative to the Ontario Resort market, the subject hotel is projected to penetrate the Meeting/Conference

segment at 78.9% of its fair market share of demand in its stabilized year, 2018. The proposed hotel will

penetrate below its fair share of demand throughout the projection period as the hotel, and the community of

Wasaga Beach, work towards becoming an established “meeting and conference destination.”

TABLE 5-4




2016 2017 2018 2019 2020




5.4 Leisure/Tourist Segment

The Leisure/Tourist market segment consists of rooms’ demand generated by independent tourists, group

tours, and a variety of sports teams/events throughout the year. It includes individuals and families visiting as

tourists, the “VFR” market (visiting friends or relatives). This market also consists of demand generated by

groups whose primary purpose is of a leisure or transient nature and not related to corporate business.

The proposed subject hotel is projected to capture approximately 10,938 occupied room nights within the

Leisure/Tourist segment in its stabilized year, 2018, representing 62.9% of the hotel’s total demand. The

majority of these occupied room nights will be captured over the Friday and Saturday period in the off peak

season and all week the summer period. As the proposed hotel would be the only branded hotel in Wasaga

Beach, it could reasonably attract a substantial share of the existing leisure business. Additionally, a portion of

occupied room nights within this segment would be induced demand, or demand that has historically chosen

to stay in markets such as Collingwood due to a lack of adequate, branded product in Wasaga Beach and

could be re-captured by the subject hotel.

Occupied room night demand within the Leisure/Tourist segment will be generated from a variety of sources

including, sports tournaments, cultural events and festivals, and pleasure travel to Wasaga Beach and

Collingwood. The subject hotel will benefit from the superior, world class beachfront location, particularly in

the peak summer months.



5.4.1 Regional Wasaga Beach/Collingwood Market Performance – Leisure/Tourist Segment


Leisure/Tourist segment at 139.0% of its fair market share of demand in its stabilized year, 2018.

TABLE 5-5


LEISURE/TOURIST SEGMENT


2016 2017 2018 2019 2020




5.4.2 Ontario Resort Market Performance – Leisure/Tourist Segment

Relative to the Ontario Resort market, the subject hotel is projected to penetrate the Leisure/Tourist segment

at 138.0% of its fair market share of demand in its stabilized year, 2018.

TABLE 5-6




2016 2017 2018 2019 2020




5.5 Government/Other Segment

The Government/Other market segment consists of demand generated by crew contracts, government

officials, travel agents, hotel employees, and to a lesser extent, smaller specialty markets. Demand in this

segment is typically represented by sources, which are highly rate sensitive and are normally provided with

significantly discounted room rates.

The proposed subject hotel is projected to capture approximately 580 occupied room nights within the

Government/Other segment in its stabilized year, 2018, representing 3.3% of the hotel’s total demand.

The majority of these occupied room nights within the Government/Other segment will be captured over the

Sunday through Thursday period throughout the year. Demand within this segment is primarily driven by crew



business within the local competitive market, with a substantial amount of residential development and on-

going infrastructure improvement projects in the region. Additionally, a portion of occupied room nights within

this segment would be induced demand, or demand that has historically chosen to stay in markets such as

Barrie due to a lack of adequate, branded product in Wasaga Beach and is as such could be re-captured by

the subject hotel. The subject will also induce some Other demand into the market from sources such as third

party providers (i.e. Expedia).

5.5.1 Regional Wasaga Beach/Collingwood Market Performance – Government/Other Segment


Government/Other segment at 90.0% of its fair market share of demand in its stabilized year, 2018. The

proposed hotel will penetrate this segment below its fair share of demand due to the location specific nature of

this demand, with the majority of demand generators for this segment focused on the Collingwood market.

TABLE 5-7


GOVERNMENT/OTHER SEGMENT


2016 2017 2018 2019 2020




5.5.2 Ontario Resort Market Performance – Government/Other Segment

Relative to the Ontario Resort market, the subject hotel is projected to penetrate the Government/Other

segment at 298.2% of its fair market share of demand in its stabilized year, 2018.

TABLE 5-8


GOVERNMENT/OTHER SEGMENT


2016 2017 2018 2019 2020






5.6 Subject Hotel Average Daily Rate Projections

In terms of Average Daily Rate (ADR), the ADR for the proposed subject hotel is projected to be $140.87, a

penetration of 80.0% against the regional Wasaga Beach/Collingwood market in its opening year, 2016. The

subject hotel is projected to have an ADR below the market ADR, but at a slight premium to the select service

hotels in Collingwood (i.e. Days Inn and Holiday Inn Express) based on the proposed hotel’s superior,

beachfront location.

TABLE 5-9 SUBJECT PROPERTY PENETRATION

AVERAGE DAILY RATE

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Market Average Daily Rate $176.09 $180.49 $185.00 $189.63 $194.37

Subject Average Daily Rate $140.87 $144.39 $148.00 $151.70 $155.49

Subject Rate Penetration 80.0% 80.0% 80.0% 80.0% 80.0% Source: PKF Consulting Inc.

Although the subject hotel will be a new build, branded asset, the hotel will not be able to charge similar rates

to those being achieved by the full service properties in Collingwood (i.e. The Westin or the Blue Mountain

Resorts) since it will not have comparable amenities and services.

5.7 Summary of Property Projections

The following table summarizes the proposed subject hotel projections over 2016-2020 in relation to the

competitive regional Wasaga Beach/Collingwood market.

TABLE 5-10 PROPOSE HOTEL DEVELOPMENT SUBJECT HOTEL PROJECTIONS

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Market Occupancy 44.3% 44.8% 45.1% 45.5% 45.9%

Subject Occupancy 55.0% 57.1% 59.6% 59.6% 59.6%


Subject Average Daily Rate $140.87 $144.39 $148.00 $151.70 $155.49

Market RevPar $77.97 $80.83 $83.51 $86.28 $89.14

Subject RevPar $77.53 $82.43 $88.20 $90.38 $92.65 Source: PKF Consulting Inc.

At a stabilized occupancy of 59.6% in 2018, the proposed hotel is projected to outperform the competitive

market with a penetration of 132.0%,14.5 points above the market in occupancy. The proposed hotel is

projected to achieve a RevPar penetration of 105.6%, a level that is comparable to the Select Service hotels

in the competitive market.



5.7.1 Seasonality Analysis & Implications

One of the challenges of operating a hotel in the Wasaga Beach/ Collingwood market is the seasonality of the

demand. Based on the projections above, the subject hotel will face similar seasonal occupancy challenges

that the current operators are facing. Table 5-11 provides a summary of the seasonality of demand and the

weekday vs. weekend impact of business on the proposed subject hotel based on the projections presented

in Exhibit 5-1A, for the property’s stabilized year of operation at a 59.6% annual occupancy.

TABLE 5-11 PROPOSED HOTEL DEVELOPMENT SEASONAL CAPACITY ANALYSIS

Winter (Jan – Mar)

Spring (Apr-June)

Summer (July-Sept)

Fall (Oct-Dec)

Period Occupancy 46% 60% 87% 45%

Sun-Thurs

Fri-Sat Sun-Thurs

Fri-Sat Sun-Thurs

Fri-Sat Sun-Thurs

Fri-Sat

Period Occupancy 36% 69% 51% 81% 87% 90% 33% 75% Source: PKF Consulting Inc.

Given the nature and beachfront location of the proposed hotel in Wasaga Beach and its proximity to the Blue

Mountain/Collingwood area, the proposed hotel will likely achieve strong occupancy in the summer season all

week, as a result of strong leisure demand. The hotel will likely face capacity situations in the summer with the

occupancy running in the 85-95% range all week long. Year round, the proposed hotel should achieve solid

occupancy levels on the weekends (Friday and Saturday) as a result of social events, sports tournament and

year round sporting activities in the area. Induced Meeting/Conference demand will support the year round

base business levels for the hotel. However, the absence of industry and major corporate/commercial

employers and limited demand drivers, especially over the Sunday to Thursday period will result in low

occupancy levels during the week lowering the overall occupancy for the period.



SUPPLY 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

BEACH AREA 2 PROPOSED HOTEL DEVELOPMENT80 80 80 80 80

Total Supply 1,752 1,752 1,752 1,752 1,752

Fair Share of Supply 4.6% 4.6% 4.6% 4.6% 4.6%

DEMAND PROJECTIONS 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Corporate

occupied room nights 13,588 13,724 13,796 13,869 13,942

fair share of demand 620 627 630 633 637

penetration rate 105.0% 107.5% 110.0% 109.4% 108.9%

total demand captured 651 674 693 693 693

ratio to total demand 4.1% 4.0% 4.0% 4.0% 4.0%

Meeting/Conference


fair share of demand 4,127 4,147 4,168 4,189 4,210


total demand captured 4,766 4,977 5,189 5,186 5,187


Leisure






Gov't/Other






Total Demand



market occupancy 44.3% 44.8% 45.1% 45.5% 45.9%

market penetration 124.3% 127.5% 132.0% 130.9% 129.9%

Project Occupancy 55.0% 57.1% 59.6% 59.6% 59.6%

RATE PROJECTIONS 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020


% Growth 2.5% 2.5% 2.5% 2.5% 2.5%

Rate Penetration Subject 80.0% 80.0% 80.0% 80.0% 80.0%

Project Average Daily Rate 140.87$ 144.39$ 148.00$ 151.70$ 155.49$

Market RevPar $77.97 $80.83 $83.51 $86.28 $89.14

Subject RevPar Penetration 99.4% 102.0% 105.6% 104.8% 103.9%

Subject RevPar 77.53$ 82.43$ 88.20$ 90.38$ 92.65$


EXHIBIT 5-1A

BEACH AREA 2 PROPOSED HOTEL DEVELOPMENT

WASAGA BEACH / COLLINGWOOD MARKET

PROJECT PROJECTIONS



SUPPLY 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

BEACH AREA 2 PROPOSED HOTEL DEVELOPMENT80 80 80 80 80

Total Supply 3,709 3,709 3,709 3,709 3,709

Fair Share of Supply 2.2% 2.2% 2.2% 2.2% 2.2%

DEMAND PROJECTIONS 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Corporate






Meeting/Conference






Leisure






Gov't/Other






Total Demand



market occupancy 50.6% 51.1% 51.6% 52.1% 52.6%

market penetration 108.8% 111.7% 115.5% 114.4% 113.3%

Project Occupancy 55.0% 57.1% 59.6% 59.6% 59.6%

RATE PROJECTIONS 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020


% Growth 2.5% 2.5% 2.5% 2.5% 2.5%

Rate Penetration Subject 66.1% 66.1% 66.1% 66.1% 66.1%

Project Average Daily Rate 140.87$ 144.39$ 148.00$ 151.70$ 155.49$

Market RevPar $107.80 $111.58 $115.49 $119.54 $123.73

Subject RevPar Penetration 71.9% 73.9% 76.4% 75.6% 74.9%

Subject RevPar 77.53$ 82.43$ 88.20$ 90.40$ 92.66$


EXHIBIT 5-1B


ONTARIO RESORTS MARKET

PROJECT PROJECTIONS



6.0 SUBJECT PROPERTY FINANCIAL OPERATING PROJECTIONS

6.1 Introduction

Based upon the preceding discussion of projected occupancies and average daily rates, a five-year projection

of annual operating results has been prepared for the proposed 80-room hotel development to be located at

Beach Area 2 in Wasaga Beach, Ontario.

The pro forma assumptions are based primarily on PKF’s in-house database, which provides insight into the

operating performance of other directly competitive and comparably branded hotels. The comparative hotels

have been selected based on their size, facility program and market mix. PKF’s database of financial

statements includes over 650 properties across the country. In projecting the subject hotel’s operating results,

we have reviewed the historical operating information of a sample of select service and resort properties

across Ontario, in order to establish an industry standard for a product that is comparable to the proposed

hotel. In addition, the historical operating information for a sample of properties in southern Ontario and the

surrounding area were contemplated in order to address regional operating concerns.

Fundamental to the projected operating results is the assumption that the hotel would be competently and

efficiently managed.

It is important to note that the projections do not take into account any efficiencies or additional

operating costs which may result from the operations of the residential components of the proposed

mixed-use development. The projections reflect the proposed hotel as a stand-alone operation.

Inflation

The average annual inflation rate in Canada the past several years has been at 2.5% or less, and for the

purpose of this analysis, inflation has been projected at 2.5% as an average throughout the five year forecast

period. However, inflation has not been used in all revenue and expense categories as the sole basis of

annual increases. The impact of increased/decreased occupancies or sales volumes is also reflected in

revenue and expense projections.



Account Classification

The Uniform System of Accounts for Hotels, recommended by the American Hotel and Lodging Association

and in general use throughout the hotel industry in Canada, has been used to classify income and expenses

in this report. In conformity with this system, only direct operating expenses are charged to operating

departments of the hotel. The general overhead items, which are applicable to operations as a whole, are

classified as undistributed and include administrative and general expenses, marketing, property operations

and maintenance, and energy costs.

The pro forma projected operating results for the proposed hotel are presented in Exhibit 6-1. The following

paragraphs summarize the projected financial operating performance for the proposed subject development

by department, the details of which are provided in Exhibits 6-2A-C.

6.2 Departmental Revenue and Expenses

6.2.1 Rooms Revenue and Expenses (Exhibit 6-2A)

Rooms revenue for the proposed 80-room hotel is based on the projected occupancy levels and the average

daily room rates as discussed in Section 5.0 of this report.

Labour and benefits expenses are based on average wage rates for similar positions in the Simcoe County

area inflated to 2016 dollars, and take into consideration industry norms for productivity of similar hotels.

Labour and benefits expenses are forecasted to be $24.48 per occupied room night in the first year of

operation.

Other Rooms departmental expenses have been based on industry averages of comparable style hotels

within Ontario. These expenses include Travel Agent Commissions of 2.0% of Rooms revenue, and $10.00

per occupied room for Laundry, Linen, and Other Guest Supplies expenses.

Total rooms departmental expenses are forecasted to be $37.30 (26.5% of Rooms revenue) in the first year

of operations. These expenses are projected to improve to 25.8% or $40.06 per occupied room night by the

fifth year of operations (2020), as a result of increased average room rates and occupancy levels over the

three-year ramp-up period. The expenses have been increased on a 60% variable, 40% fixed basis with

inflation over the projection period.



6.2.2 Food and Beverage Department Revenue and Expenses (Exhibit 6-2B)

As discussed in Section 2.0, the subject hotel will have approximately 3,500 sq. ft. of meeting space, as well

as a 70-seat restaurant, with a 30-seat seasonal patio, serving breakfast, lunch and dinner daily. The hotel will

also provide a limited amount of in-room dining to its guests. Revenue and expense estimates in this

department are based on industry standards and properties with similar facilities in Ontario generally.

In its first year of operation the hotel’s restaurant is projected to generate revenue of $810,018 or $49.65 per

occupied room night. The main 70-seat, indoor, restaurant is projected to generate revenue of approximately

$735,000 or $45.04 per occupied room night, while the seasonal 30-seat outdoor patio is projected to

generate an additional $75,000 in revenue or $4.61 per occupied room night.

Banqueting revenue, including food & beverage revenue and meeting room rentals, is projected to be $16.25

per occupied room night. Room service revenue is projected to be $1.00 per occupied room night, resulting in

a total food & beverage revenue of $66.90 per occupied room night.

Food and Beverage expenses, including cost of goods sold, payroll and benefits and other operating

expenses, are projected to be 82.1% of revenues, or $54.91 per occupied room night. F&B expenses are

projected to increase by inflation on a 70% fixed and 30% variable basis over the projection period.

6.2.3 Other Operated Departments Revenue and Expenses (Exhibit 6-2C)

This department includes the operation of various ancillary services including: telecommunications, guest

laundry, gift shop/grab-and-go, and internet and in-room movies, it also includes some potential revenue from

Health Club revenue generated through the sale of local memberships. Revenue and expense estimates in

this department are based on industry standards and select service properties in Ontario generally.

In the first year of operation, the hotel is projected to realize total revenue for Other Operated Departments of

$1.33 per occupied room night and $0.79 per occupied room night in expenses. The revenues and expenses

have been increased by 2.5% per annum on an 80% fixed and 20% variable basis over the projection period.

6.2.4 Other Income Net (Exhibit 6-2C)

Other Income Net is comprised of other sources of revenue including; net revenue from foreign exchange,

interest income, commissions and other miscellaneous income. These sources are projected to generate



$2.00 in net revenue per occupied room night in the first year of operations. Revenues from Other Income are

projected to increase with inflation on an 80% fixed and 20% variable basis over the projection period..

6.3 Undistributed Operating Expenses

6.3.1 Administration and General (Exhibit 6-2D)

This category includes the salaries and wages of administrative staff, credit card commissions, cash overages

and shortages, bad debt expense, data processing, executive office expenses, general insurance,

professional fees, security, IT, and travel.

Expenses in this department have been projected at $3,376 per available room for the first year of operation.

Expenses have been increased on an 80% fixed and 20% variable basis, with inflation, over the projection

period.

6.3.2 Sales and Marketing (Exhibit 6-2D)

In order to achieve the market penetration at the projected room rates, the property must work to develop a

strong presence in the market area and a good relationship with key clients. This category includes a budget

for salaries, and general sales and marketing expenses such as promotions and advertising campaigns.

These expenses are based primarily on industry averages for comparable type and size of hotel operations.

Additionally, a Franchise Fee of 5.0% and Other Brand Fees of 4.0% of Rooms revenue are included in this

category and are based on the industry standards and our knowledge of typical franchise agreements for

branded hotels.

Sales and Marketing expenses (inclusive of Franchise Fees) have been projected at $3,986 per available

room, or 9.3% of gross revenues, in the first year of operations. Expenses have been increased on a 90%

fixed and 10% variable basis, with inflation, over the projection period.

6.3.3 Property Operations and Maintenance (Exhibit 6-2D)

This expense line consists of salaries, wages and employee benefits for maintenance personnel, normal

building maintenance, electrical and mechanical equipment, and grounds maintenance, operating supplies,

maintenance contracts, furniture cleaning and repair, waste removal and uniforms.



Based on industry norms for hotels of comparable size and type in Ontario, these expenses are projected to

be $1,300 per available room for the first year of operation. Expenses have been increased on a 90% fixed

and 10% variable basis, with inflation, over the projection period.

6.3.4 Energy (Exhibit 6-2D)

Energy expenses, related to the heat, light and power of the hotel, have been projected at $1,500 per

available room in the first year of operation. Energy expenses have been based on results achieved by hotels,

of similar size and style, located in the Barrie and Simcoe County area. Expenses have been increased on a

90% fixed and 10% variable basis, with inflation, over the projection period.

6.4 Fixed Operating Charges

6.4.1 Property Taxes and Insurance (Exhibit 6-2D)

Property Taxes have been estimated at $2,000 per available room in the first year of operation based on the

results of hotels, of similar size and style. Property taxes have been inflated at 2.5% throughout the period.

Insurance expenses have been estimated at $120 per available room in the first year of operation, which has

been based on the results of hotels, of similar size and style. Insurance expense has been increased by

inflation annually over the projection period.

6.4.2 Management Fees (Exhibit 6-2D)

The projections take into account a management fee of 3.0% of gross revenues. This management fee

reflects industry standards and typical underwriting criteria.

6.4.3 Reserve For Asset Replacement (Exhibit 6-2D)

A reserve for asset replacement has been included to account for the replacement of furnishings and fixtures,

as required, to maintain the quality of product offered by the hotel. These expenses represent 4.0% of gross

revenues. They have been projected to be approximately $753,793 or $9,422 per available room over the

entire projection period. This amount is likely insufficient to completely renovate the guestrooms at the end of

the five year period but, will likely be sufficient to cover soft good replacements at that time.



6.5 Summary of Operating Projections

Table 6-1 summarizes the projected revenues, expenses and net operating results for the proposed 80-room

hotel development to be located at Beach Area 2 in Wasaga Beach, over its first five years of operation.

TABLE 6-1 PROPOSED HOTEL DEVELOPMENT – WASAGA BEACH

SUMMARY OF OPERATING PROJECTIONS

December 2016

December 2017

December 2018

December 2019

December 2020

Subject Occupancy 55.0% 57.1% 59.6% 59.6% 59.6%

Subject ADR $140.87 $144.39 $148.00 $151.70 $155.49

Total Revenue $3,444,198 $3,634,647 $3,825,424 $3,921,204 $4,019,360

Total Expenses $2,741,113 $2,849,179 $2,957,830 $3,031,830 $3,107,672

Adjusted Net Operating Income $703,085 $785,468 $867,594 $889,374 $911,688

Percentage of Revenue 20.4% 21.6% 22.7% 22.7% 22.7% Source: PKF Consulting Inc.



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10

,03

481.5

%

Oth

er

Op

era

ted

De

pa

rtm

ents

$1

2,8

95

59.6

%$

13

,31

559.6

%$

13

,74

059.6

%$

14

,08

359.6

%$

14

,43

659.6

%

To

tal D

ep

art

me

nta

l E

xp

en

se

s$

1,5

17

,45

444.1

%$

1,5

79

,57

843.5

%$

1,6

41

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142.9

%$

1,6

82

,95

142.9

%$

1,7

25

,05

342.9

%

TO

TA

L D

EP

AR

TM

EN

TA

L IN

CO

ME

$1

,92

6,7

44

55.9

%$

2,0

55

,06

856.5

%$

2,1

83

,55

357.1

%$

2,2

38

,25

357.1

%$

2,2

94

,30

757.1

%

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DIS

TR

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TE

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TIN

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EN

SE

S

Ad

min

istr

atio

n a

nd

Ge

ne

ral

$2

70

,10

57.8

%$

27

8,9

10

7.7

%$

28

7,7

99

7.5

%$

29

4,9

97

7.5

%$

30

2,3

74

7.5

%

Sa

les a

nd

Ma

rke

ting

1$

31

8,8

60

9.3

%$

33

1,9

74

9.1

%$

34

5,1

90

9.0

%$

35

3,8

27

9.0

%$

36

2,6

79

9.0

%

Pro

pe

rty

Op

era

tio

n a

nd

Ma

inte

na

nce

$1

04

,00

03.0

%$

10

6,9

95

2.9

%$

11

0,0

38

2.9

%$

11

2,7

89

2.9

%$

11

5,6

09

2.9

%

Utilit

ies

$1

20

,00

03.5

%$

12

3,4

56

3.4

%$

12

6,9

66

3.3

%$

13

0,1

41

3.3

%$

13

3,3

95

3.3

%

To

tal U

nd

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ibu

ted

Ex

pe

ns

es

$8

12

,96

523.6

%$

84

1,3

35

23.1

%$

86

9,9

93

22.7

%$

89

1,7

54

22.7

%$

91

4,0

57

22.7

%

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OS

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PE

RA

TIN

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RO

FIT

$1

,11

3,7

79

32.3

%$

1,2

13

,73

333.4

%$

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13

,55

934.3

%$

1,3

46

,49

934.3

%$

1,3

80

,25

034.3

%

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na

ge

me

nt F

ee

s$

10

3,3

26

3.0

%$

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9,0

39

3.0

%$

11

4,7

63

3.0

%$

11

7,6

36

3.0

%$

12

0,5

81

3.0

%

INC

OM

E B

EF

OR

E F

IXE

D C

HA

RG

ES

$1

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0,4

53

29.3

%$

1,1

04

,69

430.4

%$

1,1

98

,79

631.3

%$

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28

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331.3

%$

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931.3

%

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ED

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AR

GE

S

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pe

rty

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xes

$1

60

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04.6

%$

16

4,0

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4.5

%$

16

8,1

00

4.4

%$

17

2,3

03

4.4

%$

17

6,6

10

4.4

%

Insura

nce

$9

,60

00.3

%$

9,8

40

0.3

%$

10

,08

60.3

%$

10

,33

80.3

%$

10

,59

70.3

%

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tal F

ixe

d C

ha

rge

s$

16

9,6

00

4.9

%$

17

3,8

40

4.8

%$

17

8,1

86

4.7

%$

18

2,6

41

4.7

%$

18

7,2

07

4.7

%

NE

T O

PE

RA

TIN

G IN

CO

ME

$8

40

,85

324.4

%$

93

0,8

54

25.6

%$

1,0

20

,61

026.7

%$

1,0

46

,22

326.7

%$

1,0

72

,46

226.7

%

Re

se

rve

fo

r A

sse

t R

ep

lace

me

nt

$1

37

,76

84.0

%$

14

5,3

86

4.0

%$

15

3,0

17

4.0

%$

15

6,8

48

4.0

%$

16

0,7

74

4.0

%

AD

JU

ST

ED

NE

T O

PE

RA

TIN

G IN

CO

ME

$7

03

,08

520.4

%$

78

5,4

68

21.6

%$

86

7,5

94

22.7

%$

88

9,3

74

22.7

%$

91

1,6

88

22.7

%

Sourc

e: P

KF

Consultin

g Inc.

1 In

clu

de

s F

ran

ch

ise

Fe

es

(w

he

re a

pp

lica

ble

)

EX

HIB

IT 6

-1

BE

AC

H A

RE

A 2

PR

OP

OS

ED

HO

TE

L D

EV

EL

OP

ME

NT

WA

SA

GA

BE

AC

H, O

NT

AR

IO

PR

OJ

EC

TE

D O

PE

RA

TIN

G R

ES

UL

TS



EXHIBIT 6-2A


ROOMS DEPARTMENTAL EXPENSES

YEAR ONE 2016

ROOMS 80

OCCUPANCY (%) 55.9%

AVERAGE DAILY RATE ($) $140.87

TOTAL OCCUPIED ROOM NIGHTS 16,316

TOTAL ROOM REVENUES ($) $2,298,446

MANAGER (STAFF/SALARY) 1.0 $40,000

HOUSEKEEPING SUPERVISION(STAFF/SALARY) 0.5 $35,000

TOTAL MGT/SUPERVISORY 1.5 $57,500

ROOMS PER SHIFT 14.0

HOURLY RATE (ENTER IN FIRST YEAR DOLLARS) $12.00

COST OF HOUSEKEEPERS - YEAR ONE $111,883

SHIFTS PER DAY 1.5


COST OF HOUSEKEEPERS - YEAR ONE $52,560

SHIFTS PER DAY 2.0


COST OF FRONT DESK STAFF $73,000

SHIFTS PER DAY 1.0


COST OF FRONT DESK STAFF $37,960

ROOMS DEPT LABOUR COST $332,903

ADD PAYROLL COSTS & BENEFITS 20.0% $66,581

TOTAL ROOMS DEPT PAYROLL & BENEFITS $399,483

T.A. COMMISSIONS (% OF ROOM REV) 2.0% $45,969

LAUNDRY/LINEN/GUEST SUPPLIES ($ORN) $10.00 $163,162

TOTAL ROOMS OTHER EXPENSES $209,131

TOTAL ROOMS DEPARTMENT EXPENSES $608,614

TOTAL EXPENSES % of Revenue $ORN

LABOUR 17.4% $24.48

OTHER 9.1% $12.82

TOTAL 26.5% $37.30


OTHER ROOMS DEPT EXPENSES

MANAGEMENT/SUPERVISORY STAFF

HOUSEKEEPING

LAUNDRY / OTHER STAFFING

FRONT DESK

TOTAL ROOMS DEPT LABOUR COST

NIGHT AUDIT



S

EA

TS

SQ

.FT

.$/S

EA

T$/S

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RN

RE

VE

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ES

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OT

EL

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ST

AU

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NT

S/L

OU

NG

ES

Main

Resta

ura

nt

70

1,4

00

$10,4

98

$525

$45.0

4$734,8

82

Outs

ide P

atio (

Seasonal)

30

600

$2,5

05

$125

$4.6

1$75,1

36

T

OT

AL

HO

TE

L R

ES

TA

UR

AN

TS

/LO

UN

GE

S100

2,0

00

$8,1

00

$405

$49.6

5$810,0

18

B

AN

QU

ET

ING

F&

B R

EV

EN

UE

233

3,5

00

$979

$65

$14.0

0$228,4

27

ME

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EN

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LS

$157

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11

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OT

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%$15.8

9$259,2

06

B

AN

QU

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%$4.0

6$66,2

85

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8$4,5

69

TO

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3$330,0

59

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S%

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RN

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AN

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gm

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taff

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00

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OTE

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TS

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GE

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%

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3$162,0

04

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AN

QU

ETIN

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%

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0$42,4

22

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OO

M S

ER

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ER

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37

K

ITC

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%

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62

B

EN

EF

ITS

20.0

%

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4$72,4

85

TO

TA

L P

AY

RO

LL

& B

EN

EF

ITS

39.8

%

$26.6

6$434,9

09

GE

NE

RA

L O

PE

RA

TIN

G E

XP

EN

SE

S12.0

%

$8.0

3$130,9

77

TO

TA

L O

PE

RA

TIN

G E

XP

EN

SE

S82.1

%$54.9

1$895,9

45

NE

T D

EP

AR

TM

EN

TA

L P

RO

FIT

17.9

%$11.9

8$195,5

27

Sourc

e: P

KF

Consultin

g Inc.

EX

HIB

IT 6

-2B

BE

AC

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(Y

EA

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)R

eve

nu

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xp

en

seR

eve

nu

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xp

en

se

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com

munic

ations

$0.1

4$0.2

6$2,2

84

$4,2

42

185.7

%

Health C

lub

$0.6

1$0.1

1$9,9

00

$1,8

00

18.2

%

Guest

Laundry

$0.1

0$0.0

8$1,6

32

$1,3

05

80.0

%

Reta

il S

tore

$0.2

5$0.1

5$4,0

79

$2,4

47

60.0

%

Movi

e R

enta

ls$0.2

3$0.1

9$3,7

53

$3,1

00

82.6

%

To

tal

Oth

er

Op

era

ted

De

pa

rtm

en

ts$1.3

3$0.7

9$21,6

48

$12,8

95

59.6

%

RE

NT

AL

S A

ND

OT

HE

R I

NC

OM

E (

YE

AR

1)

Re

ve

nu

eE

xp

en

seR

eve

nu

eE

xp

en

se

Oth

er

Incom

e N

et

$2.0

0$0.0

0$32,6

32

$0

0.0

%

To

tal

Re

nta

ls a

nd

Oth

er

Inco

me

$2.0

0$0.0

0$32,6

32

$0

0.0

%

Sourc

e:

PK

F C

onsultin

g I

nc.

TO

TA

L

$O

RN

TO

TA

LD

ep

art

me

nta

l

Ra

tio

De

pa

rtm

en

tal

Ra

tio

EX

HIB

IT 6

-2C

BE

AC

H A

RE

A 2

PR

OP

OS

ED

HO

TE

L D

EV

EL

OP

ME

NT

OT

HE

R O

PE

RA

TE

D D

EP

AR

TM

EN

TS

/ R

EN

TA

LS

AN

D O

TH

ER

IN

CO

ME

$O

RN



ADMINISTRATIVE & GENERAL Year One 2016

PAYROLL COSTS

TOTAL PER ROOM $1,250 $100,000

BENEFITS 20.0% $20,000

TOTAL PAYROLL COSTS $1,500 $120,000

OTHER A&G EXPENSES

CREDIT CARD COMMISSIONS (% OF GROSS REV) 2.5% $86,105

OTHER A&G COSTS ($ PER AVAIL ROOM) $800 $64,000

TOTAL 'OTHER A&G' COSTS $1,876 $150,105

TOTAL ADMINISTRATIVE & GENERAL $3,376 $270,105

% OF GROSS REVENUE 7.8%

SALES & MARKETING Year One 2016

PAYROLL COSTS

TOTAL PER ROOM $500 $40,000

BENEFITS 20.0% $8,000

TOTAL PAYROLL COSTS $48,000

OTHER MARKETING EXPENSES

FRANCHISE ROYALTY FEE(% OF ROOMS REV) 5.0% $114,922

OTHER BRAND FEES (% OF ROOMS REV) 4.0% $91,938

GENERAL ($ PER AVAIL. RM.) $800 $64,000

TOTAL 'OTHER MARKETING COSTS $270,860

TOTAL SALES & MARKETING $3,986 $318,860


PROPERTY OPERATION & MAINTENANCE Year One 2016

PAYROLL COSTS

TOTAL PER ROOM $250 $20,000

BENEFITS 20.0% $4,000

TOTAL PAYROLL COSTS $24,000

TOTAL OTHER MAINTENANCE COSTS $1,000 $80,000

TOTAL PROPERTY OPERATION & MAINTENANCE $1,300 $104,000


UTILITIES Year One 2016

TOTAL UTILITIES $1,500 $120,000


OTHER EXPENSES Year One 2016

PROPERTY AND OTHER TAXES($ PER AVAIL. RM.) $2,000 $160,000

INSURANCE($ PER AVAIL. RM.) $120 $9,600

MANAGEMENT FEE(% OF GROSS REV) 3.0% $103,326

RESERVE FOR ASSET REPLACEMENT (% OF GROSS REV) 4.0% $137,768


EXHIBIT 6-2D

UNDISTRIBUTED EXPENSES




7.0 THE CANADIAN HOTEL INVESTMENT MARKET

7.1 Introduction

In the following section we provide an overview of the historic business activity within the Canadian hotel

investment market to support the subsequent discussion surrounding the investment implications for the

proposed resort/hotel development in Section 8 of this report.

The level of investment interest and the nature of investment activity in the Canadian Hotel industry is

influenced by a number of factors including but not limited to:

The national and global economies

The top line and bottom line performance of the hotel industry itself

The availability and cost of financing

Investment risk and return expectations

As we examine historic and future hotel investment trends each of these factors must be considered.

7.2 Investment Cycles in the Canadian Accommodation Sector

The accommodation industry is cyclical and vulnerable to economic and travel fluctuations. The Canadian

Accommodation Sector has really experienced five distinct investment cycles over the last 20 years.

The Early 1990s

The Latter Part of the 1990s

The 2001-2006 Period

The 2006-2008 Period

The 2008/2009 Downturn and the start of Recovery 2010-2012



i) The Early 1990s

This was a period of significant erosion in industry top line and bottom line performance resulting in the most

difficult period in hotel industry ownership and investment in recent history. This was influenced by significant

supply growth during the preceding years which, combined with a pro-longed period of economic downturn,

resulted in reductions in both leisure and business travel. The hotel industry reacted by decreasing rates,

which only further impacted top-line revenues and profits. There were a significant number of bank

foreclosures during this period. The impacts were felt the greatest in Central Canada.

ii) The Latter Part of the 1990s

After enduring the impacts of the downturn in the early part of the decade, the industry began a slow recovery

in terms of demand levels, price increases and profit levels. There was minimal new supply developed during

this period as hotel investment was focused on acquisitions of existing properties at well below replacement

costs. As industry profits improved, the investment interest in the sector increased, and we saw the

emergence of Public Companies and Real Estate Investment Trusts which targeted this sector. Industry

profits reached their highest levels ever

up to that time in 2000, and the number

of new development projects was on

the increase. Over 10,000 new hotel

rooms entered the market in 2000, the

strongest development year on record.

Financing and investment were more

readily available, and the strongest level

of performance and investment was

evident in Central Canada.

iii) The 2001-2006 Period

After industry performance had recovered and reached a new peak in 2000, the industry was then severely

impacted, first by the impacts of 9/11 in 2001 and then by the impacts of SARS in 2003. Performance

tumbled, but development and investment interest remained high, especially in Central Canada, despite a

slowing economy and eroding profit levels. There was also a regional shift in industry performance over this

period. Profits in properties in Central Canada continued to erode, while profits levels for hotels in Western

Canada, driven by the resource driven economy, continued to improve.



iv) The 2006-2008 Period

This was a period where real estate investment as a whole was high. Interest rates were favourable, financing

was readily available and investment return expectations were low. The level of transaction activity was

unprecedented and the level of new development was strong. Many non-hotel investors entered the sector

which despite higher risks, offered the prospect of better returns than other forms of real estate were offering

at the time. Industry profits, specifically in Western Canada surpassed 2000 levels. However, values being

paid for assets reached and in some cases surpassed replacement costs. Despite continued industry

improvement over this period, profit levels in Central Canada still remained below 2000 levels.

v) The 2008/2009 Downturn and the Start of Recovery 2010 - 2013

While the impacts of the most recent economic downturn on the Canadian hotel sector were significant, they

were not as dramatic as those of the downturn in early 1990s. Further as lenders were more conservative in

their lending and financing structures, the number of bank foreclosures during this period was also much

lower. Initially the lending community literally abandoned the hotel sector, however as the sector began to

show improvement in 2010, they began to come back and continued to do so in 2011, 2012, and 2013.

vi) The Industry Outlook for 2014 and Beyond

Going forward the expectations are for positive

and modest growth in the Canadian

Accommodation sector. After a 13%

improvement in 2010, industry profits in 2011

realized a 7% decline with minimal occupancy

growth and no improvement in ADR. In 2012,

with growth achieved in both occupancy and

ADR, ANOI levels increased by over 6%,

making up for some of 2011’s 7% decrease, but

still remaining below 2010 levels. PKF is

forecasting a one point increase in occupancy, and only a 2.0% increase in ADR, industry profitability in 2013

increased by just 2.5%, reaching ANOI levels of $9,300 per room. Industry profits are expected to improve by

a further 34% over the 2014-2018 period.



7.3 National Transaction Activity

The table below summarizes the level of hotel transaction activity across Canada for the 14-year period from

2000 to 2013.

As noted, in the late 1990s hotel transaction activity in

Canada was, for the most part, driven by the

emergence of Canada’s three initial hotel Real Estate

Investment Trusts (“REITs”). Over the 1997 and 1998

period alone, 293 hotels transacted at a total of $3.2

billion, the highest levels in history to that point. With

375 transactions at $8.7 billion, those levels were well

surpassed over the 2005-2008 period. This peaked at

150 transactions and $4.4 billion in 2007.

In 2008 and 2009, the impacts of the struggling

economy and the limited debt financing market were

reflected in the volume of hotel transaction activity,

with total transaction volume for 2008 down to $912

million. The continued weak economic performance in

Canada and abroad and the continuance of the global credit crunch limited the volume of hotel transaction in

2009.

While the number of transactions for the year was comparable to 2008, these were much smaller deals and

as a result, sales volumes decreased to $392 million. In 2009, the bulk of transaction activity involved limited

service assets, located in secondary and tertiary markets, which traded well below $100,000 per room.

There was some recovery in transaction activity in 2010, with a total of 86 hotel transactions, at $717 million.

While this level of activity was far below the peak periods of 1997-1998 and 2005-2007, it was well above the

1999 through 2004 period which averaged about 50 trades per year at a value of $400 million to $650 million

annually.

In 2011, national hotel transaction activity increased further. There were 99 transactions recorded with a total

dollar volume of $1.1 billion. The dollar volume was up 53% over 2010. Of note however, there were three

significant transactions in 2011 which accounted for much of this growth. This included the portfolio sale of the

Sutton Place Vancouver and Edmonton properties, the sale of the Intercontinental Toronto, and the portfolio

HISTORIC NATIONAL TRANSACTION OVERVIEW

2000 – 2013

Transactions

Total Volume ($ Millions)

2000 47 $485

2001 41 $657

2002 48 $540

2003 50 $488

2004 52 $412

2005 110 $1,660

2006 115 $2,594

2007 150 $4,423

2008 73 $912

2009 74 $392

2010 86 $717

2011 99 $1,107

2012 116 $1,178

2013 117 $2,023 Source: Colliers INNvestment Report; CBRE Hotel Investment Trends, PKF Consulting Inc.



sale of four Concord assets in the GTA. These three transactions alone represented over one-third of the

sales volumes in 2011.

In 2012, there were 17 more transactions than in 2011, however overall sales volumes were only up $50

million over the previous year. It is

important to note that the four largest

transactions, the Four Seasons Toronto at

$142 million, the Sutton Place Toronto at

$57 million, the 5 Calgary Downtown

Suites at $57 million and the Hotel de la

Montagne at $39 million all sold for

alternative uses. These four transactions

accounted for approximately one quarter

of the total transaction dollar volume

nationally for the year.

To the end of 2013, total transaction volumes were up at approximately $845 million over 2012, despite only

one more transaction taking place. However, this transaction volume is being skewed heavily by the sale of

the 5 property, Westin Canada Hotel Portfolio which sold for $765 million in September. This sale is the

largest portfolio transaction recorded since 2007. Transaction volumes for 2013 have also been influenced by

significant sales which took place throughout the year including the sale of the Hilton Toronto for $140.0

million and the Temple/Centennial Atlantic Canada Portfolio (3 properties) for $87.5 million, as well as the

$70.5 million five-property Courtyard and Residence Inn portfolio acquired by Morguard Corporation and the

sale of the Fairmont Chateau Laurier for $120.0 million.

7.4 Yields on Transactions

When discussing historic transaction activity many industry analysts discuss the capitalization rates at which

these properties sold. We prefer to utilize the term yield, as these “capitalization” rates are derived by relating

the sales price of the asset to historic cash flow, and are not directly related to an investor’s expectation of

return.



In 2008 the average reported yield for all

transactions was 9.0%, which was at its

lowest level in the last 12 years. In 2009,

average reported yields across all

transactions increased to 10.2%. In

2010 the average reported yields

decreased significantly to 7.8%.

However, of note about 15.0% of the

hotels which transacted in 2010 were

purchased for alternative uses at

extremely low yields. The average reported yield for transactions exclusive of those assets purchased for

conversion to alternative uses was about 9.0%.

Through the end of 2011, the average yield had increased to 8.8% from 7.8% (unadjusted) in 2010. In 2012,

there continued to be a significant number of transactions completed at lower yields, with purchasers either

acquiring assets for alternative uses or anticipating significant upside through improved performance post

renovation/re-positioning or conversion to an alternate use. The average reported yield for transactions

inclusive of those assets purchased for conversion to alternative uses was about 9.2% in 2012 up from 9.0%

in 2011. In 2013, there were fewer transactions that occurred with the intention of conversion for alternate

uses and the average yield decreased slightly to 8.7%.

7.5 Historic Canadian Hotel Investment Trends

As shown below, the Overall Capitalization Rate (OCR) or yields reported on transactions is measured

against the trailing twelve months earnings. Based on our historic knowledge of investment trends in Canada

and the U.S., we have generally seen a 25 to a 50 basis point spread between the Overall Capitalization Rate

(OCR) based on the trailing twelve months and the Overall Capitalization Rate (OCR) based on the next

twelve months earnings and a further 25 to a 50 basis point spread relative to the Terminal Capitalization

Rate. The spread between the Terminal Capitalization Rate and the Discount Rate in Canada has been in the

range of 200 to 300 basis points. This resulted in the following investment return rates for hotels in Canada

over the 2010-2013 period.



HISTORIC CAPITALIZATION RATES CANADA

Hotel Investment Criteria - Canada 2010 2011 2012 2013

Overall Capitalization Rate (trailing 12 months) 1 9.0% 8.8% 9.5% 8.7%

Overall Capitalization Rate (next 12 months/going in) 2 9.5% 9.5% 10.0% 9.0%

Terminal Capitalization Rate 3 10.0% 10.0% 10.5% 9.5%

Discount Rate 4 12.0% 12.0% 12.5% 11.5%

Source: PKF Consulting Inc. 1. 2010-2013 OCR as reported for all transactions. Adjusted to exclude assets acquired for alternative uses. 2. Trailing 12 months OCR plus an implied 50 basis point premium. 3. Next 12 months OCR plus an implied 50 basis point premium. 4. Terminal Cap Rate plus an implied 200-250 basis point premium

7.6 Implications for Hotel Investment in 2014

The industry lost ground in 2011, with industry profitability down 7.0% to $8,400 per available room;

recovering by almost 8.0% in 2012, with a further 3.0% increase forecasted for 2013.

Over the last 10 years, there has been a shift in industry performance from the east to the west, and this is not

expected to shift back over the 2012 and 2016 period. However, our forecasts for the next five years reflect a

growth and recovery stage for the industry, leading to a new peak in industry profitability by 2017. Due to the

relatively lower starting point, growth on a percentage basis will be stronger in Central Canada, however on

an absolute dollars basis growth will be stronger in Western Canada.

These factors combined with greater access to financing, lower cost of capital and increased investor interest

have put some downward pressure on cap rates, but with strong variances based on market and asset

specific factors. The Outlook for 2014 for capitalization rates and return expectations reflect some modest

compression from 2012 and 2013 levels.

2014 OUTLOOK FOR CAPITALIZATION RATES IN CANADA

Hotel Investment Criteria- Canada 2012 2013 2014P

Overall Capitalization Rate (trailing 12 months) 9.5% 8.7% 8.0%-9.0%

Overall Capitalization Rate (next 12 months) 10.0% 9.0% 8.5%-9.5%

Terminal Capitalization Rate 10.5% 9.5% 9.0%-10.0%

Discount Rate 12.5% 11.0% 11.0%-12.0% Source: PKF Consulting Inc.

As noted, asset and market specific factors have been considered in the application of these general criteria

in this valuation process.



8.0 INVESTMENT IMPLICATIONS – PROPOSED MIXED-USE RESORT DEVELOPMENT

8.1 Introduction

The following discussion outlines the investment implications for the proposed mixed-use resort development

to be located at Beach Area 2 in Wasaga Beach, Ontario.

An “Indication of Supportable Value off Cash Flow” has been prepared for the proposed hotel development

utilizing the Discounted Cash Flow Approach.

Additionally, recommendations have been prepared for the development of medium-density residential units

on the 7.2 acres of land remaining after the development of the proposed hotel.

8.2 Indication of Supportable Value – Proposed Hotel Development

The preceding assumptions and projections presented in Section 6.0 provide the basis for the preparation of

an “Indication of Supportable Value” for the proposed hotel utilizing the Discounted Cashflow approach,

applying market driven capitalization and discount rates.

Section 7.0, presented a synopsis of capitalization rates from Canadian hotel sales in recent years, which

identified Overall Capitalization rates against trailing twelve month earnings in the range of 8.0%-9.0%. Based

on our experience in the industry and knowledge of similar new build hotel developments, an Overall

Capitalization Rate within the 8.0% to 10.0% range would be considered reasonable for the proposed hotel

operating as an upscale or upper mid-scale, select service, branded asset. As such, based upon the

discussion of capitalization rates presented in Section 7.0, and on our knowledge and understanding of

current return expectations and the type of asset, we would conclude on an overall capitalization rate

(OCR) of 9.5% for the subject proposed hotel development.

However, with respect to the above hotel Capitalization Rates, it should be noted that these rates were

developed on the basis of historical (trailing earnings) and are not necessarily reflective of return objectives on

anticipated future earnings. Therefore, in selecting a Terminal Capitalization Rate to be applied to a projection

of future earnings, it is necessary to account for risk not included in historically derived rates. Typically a

Terminal Capitalization Rate to be applied to a set of projections would include an additive to account for the

perception of risk as compared to proven historical earnings. We believe that a Terminal Capitalization Rate

of 10.0% is reasonable for the subject hotel, 50 basis points above the rate that we concluded for the Overall

Capitalization Rate.



The other parameter required for the Discounted Cash Flow Analysis is the discount rate. The discount rate

reflects the overall rate of return expected by the investor, weighing the relative risk of the investment in

relation to other investment vehicles and the perceived risk of each component in the operation of the facility.

At the present time we believe that the spread between the overall or going in capitalization rate would be in

the range of 1.5% to 3.0%. This is based upon our discussions with Canadian purchasers and other

appraisers. We have utilized a discount rate of 12.0%.

As shown in Exhibit 8-1, the “Supportable Value off Cashflow” after applying a 10.0% Terminal Capitalization

Rate and 12.0% Discount Rate is $8,256,480, or $103,206 per room. This “Indication of Value” should not be

construed as “Market Value”.

ROOMS 80

INFLATION 2.5%

DISCOUNT RATE 12.0%

TERMINAL CAPITALIZATION RATE 10.0%

Discount Net Present Implied

Year Year Cash Flow Rate @ 12% Value Yield

1 2016 $703,085 0.893 $627,755 8.5%

2 2017 $785,468 0.797 $626,170 9.5%

3 2018 $867,594 0.712 $617,536 10.5%

4 2019 $889,374 0.636 $565,213 10.8%

5 2020 $911,688 0.567 $517,316 11.0%

Cashflow Value $4,157,209 Discounted $2,953,990

Residual Value $9,344,799 Discounted $5,302,490

Estimate of Value $8,256,480

Per Room $103,206


11.0% 11.5% 12.0% 12.5% 13.0%

9.0% $114,926 $112,720 $110,571 $108,475 $106,431

9.5% $110,872 $108,757 $106,694 $104,684 $102,723

10.0% $107,223 $105,189 $103,206 $101,272 $99,386

10.5% $103,922 $101,962 $100,050 $98,185 $96,367

11.0% $100,922 $99,027 $97,180 $95,379 $93,623

EXHIBIT 8-1


ESTIMATE OF VALUE CALCULATION - DISCOUNTED CASH FLOW

NET PRESENT VALUE ANALYSIS

VALUE PER ROOM SENSITIVITY MATRIX



8.3 Implications & Recommendations

As discussed in Section 2.5.1, the hotel development cost is estimated to be approximately $11.3 million

(excluding land). The “Supportable Value off Cashflow” of $8.3 million leaves a minimum funding gap of

approximately $3.0 million on the hotel development. However, this funding gap is likely more significant since

Lenders will typically lend up to 60% of the lower of the value or the construction cost.

In this case, assuming a 60% loan to value (LTV), a Lender would be prepared to lend approximately $5.0

million against the hotel development, requiring approximately $6.3 million in equity to be contributed by the

developer. In order for the proposed hotel development to attract a developer, the equity requirement would

need to be mitigated by other sources of revenue to meet return expectations on the project as a whole for

the developer.

Given that there would be approximately 7.2 acres of land available, after the proposed hotel is developed, it

is our opinion that the development of mid-tier, medium-density, residential units on the balance of the site

would complement the proposed hotel project and could generate acceptable development profits to attract a

developer to the project.

The objectives of a residential development component as part of the project would be:

For the Town to realize fair market value on the sale of the 9.7-acre Beach Area 2 parcel(s);

To absorb the hotel development shortfall estimated to be approximately $3.0 million; and;

To generate significant development profits in order to attract a developer to the project.

It is our understanding that, the permitted density for residential development on the Beach Area 2 site could

reasonably be between 20 and 30 units per acre. With this in mind and assuming that all 7.2 acres of land

remaining are fully developable, it is reasonable to assume that approximately 150 – 225 units of medium-

density residential could be developed.

While PKF Consulting Inc. does not specialize in residential development, nor are we architects or planners, it

is our opinion that the development of mid-tier, medium-density, residential units as part of the Beach Area 2

development would complement the proposed hotel project and could potentially generate acceptable

development profits to attract a developer to the project.



If the Town of Wasaga Beach chooses to take this direction, it would be our recommendation that a third

party, residential consultant be engaged to provide an in-depth analysis of the market potential and feasibility

of the residential component.

Based on past experience with similar mixed-used development projects, it is our recommendation that it

would be critical that any agreement with a potential developer includes stipulations that the hotel be

developed within Phase 1 of the overall project to ensure this component comes to fruition. In the past, when

municipalities have not stipulated this, other more profitable areas of development, such as the residential

component discussed above, have been prioritized by the developer with the hotel development eventually be

shelved.

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