Market situation Cereals

AGRI C 5Management Committee for the Common

Organisation of Agricultural Markets30 August 2012

2

Euro – Dollar exchange rate

3

Euro – Argentine Peso and Brazilian Real exchange rate

4

Crude oil price

5

Baltic Dry Index

6

World cereals: IGC

303

373404

366338 (337)

121159 172

138 129 103 (104)

371

1802 1800

1776 (1810)

1751

1849

1699

1809 (1839)

1785

1844

1731

1769

1678

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 est 2012 fcst

mio

t

1500

1550

1600

1650

1700

1750

1800

1850

1900

mio

t

World Ending Stocksof which 8 major exportersWorld ProductionWorld Consumption

Source: IGC 23 August. report

7

World cereal prices ($/t)

225

245

265

285

305

325

345

365

30/08

/2011

13/09

/2011

27/09

/2011

11/10

/2011

25/10

/2011

8/11/2

011

22/11

/2011

6/12/2

011

20/12

/2011

3/01/2

012

17/01

/2012

31/01

/2012

14/02

/2012

28/02

/2012

13/03

/2012

27/03

/2012

10/04

/2012

24/04

/2012

8/05/2

012

22/05

/2012

5/06/2

012

19/06

/2012

3/07/2

012

17/07

/2012

31/07

/2012

14/08

/2012

28/08

/2012

quot

atio

n in

$ /

tonn

e

Wheat - Black Sea Milling - $ 310 Wheat - US SRW Gulf - $ 336 Wheat - FR Rouen - $ 330Maize - US 3YC Gulf - $ 330 Maize - FR Bordeaux - $ no quotation Barley - FR Dlvd Rouen feed - $ 294

8

World wheat: IGC

132

172199 193

180 (183)

4769 77 72 70

54 (55)

197

607

679

696

602

645652

692685

653662 (665)

659

679 (679)

0

100

200

300

400

500

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 est 2012 fcst

mio

t

520

540

560

580

600

620

640

660

680

700

720

mio

t

World Ending Stocksof which 8 major exportersWorld ProductionWorld Consumption

Source: IGC 23 August. report

9

IGC: Wheat production forecastAll wheat

133

62

4127 23

13 11 12

0,0

20,0

40,0

60,0

80,0

100,0

120,0

140,0

160,0

EU USA Russia Canada Australia Ukraine Kazakhstan Argentina

Mt

2010/11 2011/12(est.) 2012/13(fcst.)

Source: IGC 23 August. report

10

World wheat: USDA

121

167

203 198177 (182)

3860

78 75 7056 (61)

198

686

641650 652

610

682

663 (665)

695

654

617

683 (680)696

0

100

200

300

400

500

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 est. 2012 proj.

mio

t

540

560

580

600

620

640

660

680

700

720

mio

t

World Ending Stocksof which 8 major exportersWorld ProductionWorld Consumption

Source: USDA August report

11

World wheat export prices (fob, US$ per tonne)

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

01/20

0704

/2007

07/20

0710

/2007

01/20

0804

/2008

07/20

0810

/2008

01/20

0904

/2009

07/20

0910

/2009

01/20

1004

/2010

07/20

1010

/2010

01/20

1104

/2011

07/20

1110

/2011

01/20

1204

/2012

07/20

12

quot

atio

n in

€ o

r $ /

tonn

e

Wheat - Canada CWRS St Lawrence - $ no quotation Wheat - US HRW Gulf - $ 359Wheat - US SRW Gulf - $ 336 Wheat - Australia ASW Eastern States - $ 344Wheat - Argentina Trigo Up River - $ 335 Wheat - Black Sea Milling - $ 310Wheat - Black Sea Feed - $ 295

12

US vs. EU wheat export prices

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

01/20

0804

/2008

07/20

0810

/2008

01/20

0904

/2009

07/20

0910

/2009

01/20

1004

/2010

07/20

1010

/2010

01/20

1104

/2011

07/20

1110

/2011

01/20

1204

/2012

07/20

12

quot

atio

n in

€ o

r $ /

tonn

e

Wheat - US SRW Gulf - $ 336 Wheat - US SRW Gulf - € 267Wheat - FR Rouen - € 263 Feed Wheat - UK London - € no quotation

13

US CME SRW wheat futures

14

US KCBT HRW wheat futures

15

EU Milling Wheat Futures

16

EU wheat export commitments 2012/13

0

4

8

12

16

20

Mill

ion

tonn

es

2011/2012 trimmed avg 5MY 2012/2013

TRIMMED AVERAGE 5MY

MY 2011/12

WHEAT CUMULATED EXP

17

Weekly common wheat exports 2012/13

98 101

313

134

283 292

119

368

0

102

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

1000

t

soft wheat 2012/13 soft wheat 2011/12 weekly average

Exports

18

EU wheat import commitments 2012/13

0

2

4

6

1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47 49 51 53

Mill

ion

tonn

es

Soft wheat 2011/12 Soft wheat trimmed average Soft wheat 2012/13

TRIMMED AVERAGE

MY 2011/12

MY 2012/13

WHEAT CUMULATED IMP

19

Selected wheat trade for the past weeksCountry Crop Quantity

(in tonnes)Price (in $) Origin(s) Delivery

date

Algeria Milling wheat

350 000 340.50- 341.00 c&f

Optional Sept/Oct

Algeria Durum 400 000 410 c&f Optional (likely from Canada)

Oct

Egypt Wheat 180 000 319.00- 323.38 fob

Russia Romania

Sept

Jordan Wheat 100 000 344 c&f Optional (likely Black Sea)

n/a

Saudi Arabia

Milling Wheat

290 000 366.46- 379.50 c&f

EU, Australia and North and South

America

Oct/Nov

20

World durum wheat: IGC

1,7

3,6

4,9

3,1

1,9 (1,9)

0,9

1,9

2,7

1,61

0,9 (1)

2

35

39

41

35

3738 38 38

36 (36)

35 (35)

37

37

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 est 2012 fcst

mio

t

30

32

34

36

38

40

42

mio

t

3 Major exporters StocksCanadaWorld ProductionWorld Consumption

Source: IGC 23 August. report

21

World durum wheat export prices (fob, € per tonne)

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

550

600

01/20

0704

/2007

07/20

0710

/2007

01/20

0804

/2008

07/20

0810

/2008

01/20

0904

/2009

07/20

0910

/2009

01/20

1004

/2010

07/20

1010

/2010

01/20

1104

/2011

07/20

1110

/2011

01/20

1204

/2012

07/20

12

quot

atio

n in

€ o

r $ /

tonn

e

Durum - US Minneapolis HADW - € no quotation Durum - FR Port-La-Nouvelle - € 316Durum - IT Bologna - € 294 Durum - ES Average - € 280 (21/8/2012)Wheat - FR Rouen - € 263

22

World barley: IGC

26

34

40

29 28 (28)

713

18

11 10 9 (9)

28

133

155

150146 145

134 134

123

130 (131)

135135

130 (131)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 est 2012 fcst

mio

t

100

110

120

130

140

150

160

mio

t

World Ending StocksEU ending stocksWorld ProductionWorld Consumption

Source: IGC 23 August. report

23

World barley export prices (fob, € per tonne)

75

125

175

225

275

325

01/20

0704

/2007

07/20

0710

/2007

01/20

0804

/2008

07/20

0810

/2008

01/20

0904

/2009

07/20

0910

/2009

01/20

1004

/2010

07/20

1010

/2010

01/20

1104

/2011

07/20

1110

/2011

01/20

1204

/2012

07/20

12

quot

atio

n in

€ o

r $ /

tonn

e

Barley - FR Dlvd Rouen feed - € 234 Barley - UK FOB London feed - € no quotation Barley - FI Dlvd Naantali feed - € 203 Barley - Black Sea feed FOB - € 235Barley - FR Dlvd Rouen malting - € 248

24

EU barley export commitments 2012/13

0

1

2

3

4

Mill

ion

tonn

es

2012/2013 2011/2012 trimmed avg 5MY

TRIMMED AVERAGE

MY 2011/12

BARLEY CUMULATED EXP

MY 2012/13

25

EU weekly barley exports in 2012/13

161

125

239

175

103

127 123

190

0

144

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

1000

t

Barley 2012/13 Barley 2011/12 weekly average

Exports

26

World maize: IGC

134150 148

130 120 (115)

41 43 4329 26 16 (16)

134

797 800

779 784

820838 (864)

875

829821

853 (878)870844

0

100

200

300

400

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 est 2012 fcst

mio

t

640

660

680

700

720

740

760

780

800

820

840

860

880

900

mio

t

World Ending Stocksof which USWorld ProductionWorld Consumption

Source: IGC 23 August. report

27

IGC: maize production forecastMaize

275

73 60

20 21

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

USA Brazil EU Ukraine Argentine

Mio

t

2008 2009 2010/11 2011/12(est.) 2012/13(fcst.)

Source: IGC 23 August. report

28

World maize: USDA

129149 144

127 123 (134)

41 43 4329 26 17 (30)

136

771782

792 799819

849 (905)

877

831

862 (901)

823868

849

0

100

200

300

400

500

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 est. 2012 proj.

mio

t

600

650

700

750

800

850

900

950

mio

t

World Ending Stocksof which USWorld ProductionWorld Consumption

Source: USDA August report

29

World maize export prices (fob, US$ per tonne)

125

175

225

275

325

375

01/20

0704

/2007

07/20

0710

/2007

01/20

0804

/2008

07/20

0810

/2008

01/20

0904

/2009

07/20

0910

/2009

01/20

1004

/2010

07/20

1010

/2010

01/20

1104

/2011

07/20

1110

/2011

01/20

1204

/2012

07/20

12

quot

atio

n in

€ o

r $ /

tonn

e

Maize - US 3YC Gulf - $ 330 Maize - Argentina Feed Up River - $ 291Maize - Brazil Feed Paranagua - $ 289 Maize - Black Sea Feed - $ 310

30

US vs. EU maize prices

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

01/20

08

04/20

08

07/20

08

10/20

08

01/20

09

04/20

09

07/20

09

10/20

09

01/20

10

04/20

10

07/20

10

10/20

10

01/20

11

04/20

11

07/20

11

10/20

11

01/20

12

04/20

12

07/20

12

quot

atio

n in

€ o

r $ /

tonn

e

Maize - US 3YC Gulf - $ 330 Maize - US 3YC Gulf - € 263Maize - FR Bordeaux - € no quotation Maize - HU Budapest - € 243

31

CME maize futures

32

EU maize futures

33

EU Maize import commitments 2012/13

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

Mill

ion

tonn

es

Maize other than seed 2011/12 Maize other than seed - Trimmed Average Maize other than seed 2012/13

TRIMMED AVERAGE 5MY

MY 2012/13

MY 2011/12

MAIZE CUMULATED IMP

34

EU Commitments 2012/2013 (9 weeks)

Imports: 1.9 mio t (3.3 mio t in 2011/12; 1.1 mio t 2 years ago)

919 000 t soft wheat

273 000 t durum wheat

715 000 t maize

7 000 t barley

Exports: 3.6 mio t (3.2 mio t last year; 4.7 mio t 2 years ago)

1.8 mio t soft wheat

151 000 t soft flour

1.3 mio t barley

85 000 t durum wheat

167 000 t maize

Thank you for your attention! Balance sheet updates & market presentation

available: http://ec.europa.eu/agriculture/cereals/balanc

e-sheets/index_en.htm