market situation and perspectives
DESCRIPTION
Market situation and perspectives. Carlos MARTÍN ÓVILO DG Agriculture and Rural Development European Commission Dairy Press Tour 2013 Charmey - 27 .10.2013. Milk quota system International competitiveness Internal market. Milk Quota system. Introduced in 1984, for 8 years. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
Marketsituation and perspectives
Carlos MARTÍN ÓVILO
DG Agriculture and Rural Development
European Commission
Dairy Press Tour 2013Charmey - 27.10.2013
1. Milk quota system
2. International competitiveness
3. Internal market
2
• Introduced in 1984, for 8 years.
• Extended in 1992 and 1999 reforms.
• CAP 2003 reform: Quota until 1 April 2015.
• Health Check 2008: soft landing (5 x 1% in 2009 – 2013).
3
Milk Quota system
1. Milk quota system
2. International competitiveness
3. Internal market
4
EU competitiveness - Milk
5
Increasing demand:The main driver in the dairy outlook
6
EU dairy exports(in 1 000 t)
7
EU world market share
8
9
7.7%
9.0%
9.5%
10.2% 10.1%10.3%
10.6% 10.7% 10.7% 10.7% 10.8% 10.8%11.0% 11.1%
6%
7%
8%
9%
10%
11%
12%
2 009 2 010 2 011 2012e 2013f 2014f 2015f 2016f 2017f 2018f 2019f 2020f 2021f 2022f
EU exports of dairy products (in milk equivalent) in % of EU Milk production
Source : DG AGRI Medium Term Outlook, Eurostat (Comext)
1. Milk quota system
2. International competitiveness
3. Internal market
10
Milk production below quota
11
113
879
113
876
114
244
114
061
114
765
114
574
115
462
115
851
115
948
122
651 13
2 60
2
132
825
135
047
135
191
134
464
137
623
140
480
139
669
100 000
105 000
110 000
115 000
120 000
125 000
130 000
135 000
140 000
145 000
150 000
155 000
160 000
95-9
6
96-9
7
97-9
8
98-9
9
99-0
0
00-0
1
01-0
2
02-0
3
03-0
4
04-0
5
05-0
6
06-0
7
07-0
8
08-0
9
09-1
0
10-1
1
11-1
2
12-1
3
13-1
4
14-1
5
1000
Ton
nes
Evolution of EU Milk deliveries and Direct sales versus quota
Fat correction
Total EU Direct Sales
Total EU Deliveries (not incl. fat correction)
Total Quota (Deliveries + Direct Sales)
Milk production versus quota in the various MS
12
+ 3
.6%
+ 0
.8%
+ 0
.4%
+ 0
.1%
+ 0
.1%
-0
.4%
-0
.4%
-2
.3%
-2
.9%
-3
.0%
-3
.6%
-3
.6%
-6
.5%
-7
.4%
-1
0.1
%
-1
1.7
%
-1
1.8
%
-1
3.8
%
-1
4.3
%
-1
7.5
%
-1
9.9
%
-2
1.0
%
-2
1.7
%
-2
3.7
%
-2
6.5
%
-4
7.3
%
-5
5.3
%
- 65%
- 60%
- 55%
- 50%
- 45%
- 40%
- 35%
- 30%
- 25%
- 20%
- 15%
- 10%
- 5%
- 0%
+ 5%
+ 10%AT CY DK PL DE NL IT LU ES IE BE LV EE FR SI CZ PT UK FI MT SK LT SE HU EL RO BG
in %
of A
vaila
ble
Qu
an
tity
EU Deliveries Overshoot/Under use (in % of quota)
2010/11
2011/12
2012/13
Milk production prospects versus quota
13
EU milk production
14
Cheese prospects
15
SMP prospects
16
Butter prospects
17
WMP prospects
18
CAP 2020 for milk political deal
1. Milk quota expiry on 31 March 2015 confirmed
2. Public intervention• for butter and SMP
• from 1 March until 31 September each year
• up to 50 000 t for butter at a fixed price of 221.75 €/100 kg
• up to 109 000 t for SMP at a fixed price of 169.80 €/100 kg
• Automatic tendering if and when ceilings reached
3. Private storage aid possible for butter, SMP and certain PDO/PGI cheeses, if necessary
4. Takeover of the Milk Package
5. Exceptional measures against market disturbance, animal diseases, loss of consumer confidence,
6. Minor unused schemes abolished (milk powder for feed and skimmed milk for casein)
7. Reformed direct payments (including possibility for coupled payments) & rural development policy
19
• No shocks expected in terms of production at the end of quotas in 2015
• Increasing share of EU milk exported
• Remain competitive at international level will be essential for internal market balance
20
Conclusions
Information on milk market:
http://ec.europa.eu/agriculture/milk/index_en.htm
PAC 2020:http://ec.europa.eu/agriculture/cap-post-2013/index_en.htm
Conference "The EU dairy sector: developing beyond 2015":
http://ec.europa.eu/agriculture/events/dairy-conference-2013_en.htm
Thank you for your attention !