market research - a complexity approach using sensemakertm

FEBRUARY 2010

Market ResearchA complexity approach using

SenseMakerTM

“There is nothing like looking, if you want to 5ind something. You certainly usually 5ind something, if you look, but it is not always quite the something you were after.” - J.R.R. Tolkien

A complexity approach to market researchThe business environments of the 21st Century are shaping up to be radically different to those many of us have experienced previously. Recent market shaping events such as the Global Financial Crisis were not widely foreseen and who is to say that an unprecedented events such as these will not happen again? As we enter the second decade of a new century, the pace of change will only conJnue to accelerate with the scale and scope of informaJon available to assist decision makers only growing in defiance of comprehension. Market Research in this environment needs to embrace a toolkit that allows companies and business alike to understand the complexity that they deal with on a daily basis in order to make effecJve decisions.

A complexity approach to market research has been derived from the science of Complex AdapJve Systems, where the nature of a complex system is such that there is no one right answer. There are range of possibiliJes and opJons due to the myriad of factors that could determine cause and effect. Complex systems are by their very nature emergent, and the challenge with market research in this environment is be able to understand the emergent properJes of complex systems that allow decision makers to make informed decisions and monitor impact over Jme.

“Changing the way we measure things is vital. So is decompartmentalising society - making sure that economics and politics are not divorced from other crucial areas of life” - David Attenborough

SenseMakerTM - designed to support narrative-based research and decision making

The CogniJve Edge SenseMaker SoNware Suite, is fully integrated with a body of facilitated processes, is the outcome of several years of research into human-‐based organizaJonal complexity, sensemaking, decision-‐making, knowledge sharing and impact evaluaJon by CogniJve Edge.

It provides a natural and intuiJve approach to gaining mulJple perspecJves and new insights into complex problems that have hitherto proved intractable for both strategic management methods and soNware.

The SenseMaker SoNware Suite has been used to address complex issues associated with:

• Making decisions in inherently complex environments;

• Assessing the intelligence available on compeJJve actors and their strategies;

• Developing leaders who can adapt to constant change;

• Managing knowledge that is criJcal to their business;

• EvaluaJon of impact of iniJaJves and

• Assessing customer saJsfacJon and employee morale.

Large amounts of unstructured data are used, such as peoples experiences and responses to prompJng material, news arJcles, blog entries, and pictures, where the way in which these are tagged enables the idenJficaJon and analysis of paWerns. TradiJonal staJsJcal analysis is also available.

Current esJmates are that the cost is in the range of 20-‐25% of more tradiJonal survey approaches. AddiJonal benefits are that the source data remains the property of the client organisaJon, the skills for analysis and interpretaJon are transferred, and the date/Jme stamping enables tracking of trends and changes -‐ small and large.

A natural and intuitive approach to gaining multiple perspectives and new insights into complex problems that have until now proved to be intractable for both strategic management methods and software

“There is no difference between a terrorist, a citizen, an employee and a consumer – all represent the problem of asymmetry in which an organisation has to understand multiple interactions and decision from large populations which cannot be predicted or controlled by that organisation.” - Cognitive Edge

Emerging OpJons uses SenseMakerTM to capture large volumes of narraJve with respect to the specific area under consideraJon. Literally thousands of stories, anecdotes, pictures, arJcles, verbal records and much more, can be captured at a minimal cost. Those who provide the stories or submit other sense making material answer a number of quesJons that provide the indexing criteria, and subsequent reporJng. Indexing is customised to meet the needs of the research, and central to the CogniJve Edge Sense Making soNware’s ability to shown paWerns that could uncover emerging trends, issues or insights that are not readily apparent with tradiJonal methods of data interrogaJon.

SenseMakerTM will allow for the uncovering of paWerns in the complex issue being invesJgated. The dataset collected, will also form the basis for the ongoing benchmarking of idenJfied insights and drivers moving forward.

The kind of complex organic database created, can help you find out who is saying what, and how a challenge or project is being handled. For example, six clicks of a mouse buWon can tell you all the stories told by an experienced staff member, facing a crisis, involving deep conflict and emoJons, told from their point of view, with the intenJon of teaching. Depending on the number of queries you look at, you can narrow or expand your potenJal insight about what might be relevant and what might not.

Benefits of SenseMakerTM:

• Ability to allow mul-ple perspec-ves to be visible and recognized -‐ to make the “invisible voices visible”

• Ability to value dissent without requiring a>ribu-on of blame

• Providing perspec-ves and frameworks that enable people to take ac-on in addressing complex issues

• Compliment and work in conjunc-on with exis-ng research tools and processes

• The use of narra-ve as a key component of collec-ng and understanding knowledge in context

• A founda-on for benchmarking

• A bo>om-‐up approach to iden-fying issues masked through organisa-on hierarchy

• A near real -me view of the organisa-on and how it manages complex issues

• Making key decisions where to invest scarce research or marke-ng budgets

• Gaining compe--ve advantage through deep insights from real people.

• Know how customers and compe-tors talk about the issues under considera-on

• Iden-fy customer segments and context within which they talk about issues being researched

• Formulate targeted marke-ng messages that most resonate with target audience

SenseMakerTM - a look under the covers

Key to SenseMakerTM is the removal of the role of the “expert” as far as possible. Experts will not give opinions as to what people think -‐ this is gathered from real people in the target research audience. By recognising that each individual understands their experiences beWer than experts, and allowing them to interpret their own material, SenseMakerTM is able to provide in-‐depth quanJtaJve analysis in research areas typically only quanJfied in a superficial manner, or covered by qualitaJve research alone.

SenseMakerTM avoids pre-‐hypothesis, categorisaJon or pre-‐determined demographic definiJons. The use of emergent research allows the groups to be discovered based on actual characterisJcs. TradiJonal survey techniques, focus groups or standard quesJonnaires are not used. By using indirect quesJoning and gathering responses in a narraJve format, we are able to probe to a deeper level. The material gathered contains not only the respondents experiences, but nuanced insights into their views in the context of real experiences. These details enable the content of the responses to be understood. The result is a staJsJcal analysis of the paWerns of responses, which can be drilled down into to examine the qualitaJve narraJve underneath the numbers.

Summary Statistics for graph: In this story people feel they are -- Lacking choice X The people in this story could be described as -- Old ways

Number of items: 36

~~~~~ X axis (In this story people feel they are -- Lacking choice)

Mean: 68.6667 Median: 79.5 25th percentile: 36.25 75th percentile: 97.75 Standard deviation: 31.9616

Skewness: -0.6409 (skewed to the left) Skewness standard error (SSE, sqrt(6/n)): 0.4082 Skewness Z score (skewness / SSE): -1.5699 Skewness indicates normal distribution (abs Z score < 2): yes

Kurtosis: -1.1866 (platykurtic or heavier in the tails) Standard error for kurtosis (KSE, sqrt(24/n)): 0.8165 Kurtosis Z score (Kurtosis / KSE): -1.4533 Kurtosis indicates normal distribution (abs Z score < 2): yes

~~~~~ Y axis (The people in this story could be described as -- Old ways)

Mean: 65.8056 Median: 79.0 25th percentile: 24.0 75th percentile: 99.0 Standard deviation: 33.0427

Skewness: -0.4929 (skewed to the left) Skewness standard error (SSE, sqrt(6/n)): 0.4082 Skewness Z score (skewness / SSE): -1.2074 Skewness indicates normal distribution (abs Z score < 2): yes

Kurtosis: -1.4432 (platykurtic or heavier in the tails) Standard error for kurtosis (KSE, sqrt(24/n)): 0.8165 Kurtosis Z score (kurtosis / KSE): -1.7676 Kurtosis indicates normal distribution (abs Z score < 2): yes

Correlation

Use parametric correlation test? yes Pearson product-moment correlation coefficient: 0.4346 Pearson correlation significance: 0.0081 Significance threshold: 0.05 Correlation is significant? yes

But everything else is great..

If your lucky you'll get a competent supervisor. If not you can end up with someone who doesn't do their job but will always appear to others that they are helpful and hard working. They will take credit for your hard work and even put their name to it. They will quietly and without witnesses bully you all the while justifying why they need you to do as they say. If your not good at dealing with this type of conflict you often feel angry and frustrated.

Restrictions

We're under staffed, under resourced, aging demographic.

Dom

inan

t Att

itude!

Leadership!

Going through !the motions!

Frustrated &"powerless!

Non existent!Unnecessarily"Interfering!

Whose "increased selfishness"?? Litigators?? That will hinder many volunteers, regardless of time, attitudes, and generations. Who can seriously afford to be sued for any perceived wrong doing while do gooding?? Like everything in our highly dynamic society today, volunteering attitudes and experiences are shifting. Some more positive, some negative, and many traditional volunteer beliefs and services need to mirror these changes to move with the times to survive the times.

!Who killed the Volunteer?

Dom

inan

t Att

itude!

Leadership!

Going through !the motions!

Frustrated & "powerless!

Non existent!Unnecessarily"Interfering!

Triad Interpretation: How three competing themes relate!

Process!

Money! Clients!

Encouraged use of! new learnings!

Risk! Averse!

Too much else!going on!

Work environment open to new initiatives:!

Difference to the business:!

Area of the business most impacted:!

Team!

Me! Organisation!

Triads: Assessing the relationship between three competing Interests!

Triads are a visual form of gecng parJcipants to indicate the relaJonship that exists between three compeJng interests within an issue under consideraJon. To respond, the parJcipant will move the ball within the triad to where they think it best sits in relaJon to the the three areas of interest (one at each apex).

SenseMaker in its analysis, will then use the aggregate of these responses to build “heat maps” of paWerns of responses provided. Where interesJng paWerns appear, we can drill down into the experiences to understand the paWern and context of responses.

SignificaJon of experiences provided by respondents occurs in two primary forms -‐ Triads and Opposing Opposites.

Polarities: Opposing opposites to uncover layers of meaning!

Opposing opposites are an addiJonal form of signifier used by SenseMakerTM. TradiJonal surveys will oNen use a scale running from a negaJve posiJon to a posiJve end, with the desirable outcome usually posiJve and obvious to the parJcipant. This is done for two reasons -‐ to “mask” the ideal outcome and deny a simple answer and to provide an addiJonal dimension for sensemaking. By asking the respondent to rate their response between two extremes we get a deeper understanding of the response.

Impact Dashboard: Measurement of Impact over time!

An Impact Dashboard can be developed based upon the areas where deep insight is sought in the domain area of enquiry, using the polariJes that parJcipants have responded to.

The parJcipant would have moved the ball in the slider bar to the the extent that they feel the issue under consideraJon is present. SenseMakerTM will then aggregate these responses into an overall distribuJon. In a perfect world we would see a normal distribuJon centered around the ideal state. In reality this rarely happens and we are looking to see the deviaJon of the mean of the distribuJon (red line) from the Ideal State (blue shaded area). By drilling down into the narraJve we can find the context as to why the deviaJon from the ideal state is occurring. Furthermore, intervenJons can be developed to shiN the mean back towards the ideal state which can be monitored over Jme.

Learning!

variety of skills, approaches and thinking in the business - evident from working together in teams. Insight from watching colleagues present as a client - increased awareness of how a customer might see us when we pitch to them.!

Idea

l Sta

te!

Safe learning environment!

Too scared to!try anything new!

Over protected!

Engaging with colleagues!

I would share my positive thoughts on the interaction with colleagues, the challenge in delivering an outcome in a short time frame. Would also suggest that the classroom learning and activity were disconnected but it didn't undermine the overall value of the course. !

Role management!

Being often the leader on projects, I took less of a leading role to help others. I was able to observe the project management leadership and role definition process and the impact of these in reaching an outcome. This was very educational to see from the outside and the positive (consensus) attributes and adverse impact of not having clear roles which I will use in my role. !

What interventions might be required to shift the mean back towards the Ideal State of “participants having the ability to experiment in an environment where it is safe to fail”?!

MulJple Choice QuesJons provide a second level of significaJon, allowing analysis to be further segmented based upon responses to each mulJple choice quesJon

Signification: The person who provides the experience decides what it means!

Vivien Read is a founder of Emerging Options. Viv has over 30 years experience as a consultant and manager in organisational strategy, change management, industrial relations, leadership development, and action learning. She has co facilitated 4 Cognitive Edge accreditation programs, in Australia and South East Asia. She is currently involved in projects using the Cognitive Edge tools and processes in Australia and Singapore. Viv is a frequent presenter at conferences, seminars and professional groups including knowledge management societies, facilitator networks, and training and development groups.

Chris Fletcher is a co-founder of Emerging Options. Prior to starting Emerging Options, Chris was the Asia Pacific Director for Knowledgement Management at Deloitte. He has over 20 years experience working in Marketing, Business Development, Strategy and Knowledge Management - predominantly in the professional services sector. His current focus is on using Cognitive Edge tools and processes to help organisations and groups understand complex issues, connect people and develop networks.

Chris is a regular speaker at conferences and seminars in the Asia Pacific region.

About us:

Emerging Options are a consulting network specialising in complexity and ways of helping organisations and groups understand the world in which they participate in order to act.

For more information on this project or to express interest in participating, please contact:

Viv Read

email: [email protected]

Phone: +61 414 294 339

Chris Fletcher

email: [email protected]

Phone: +61 402 308 403

http://www.emergingoptions.com.au/www.cognitive-edge.com




mailto:[email protected]


