market outlook - quantum residential property trust presentation - everto… · sale volumes &...
TRANSCRIPT
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MARKET
OUTLOOK
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PROPERTY
CYCLE
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UPSWING
PEAK
DOWNTURN
TROUGH
RECOVERY
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TEN CYCLES SINCE 1880
AVERAGE 8 YEARS
5 YEARS UPSWING @ 11% pa
3 YEARS DOWNTURN @ - 5% pa
PAST CYCLES AVG 8.5% PA
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PROPERTY CYCLE?
1. LIQUIDITY EASE & COST OF FUNDS
2. ECONOMY PROFITS & EMPLOYMENT
3. DEMAND HOUSEHOLD FORMATION;
SALE VOLUMES & TIME TAKEN TO SELL
4. RETURNS CAPITAL GROWTH/YIELDS
5. SCARCITY SUPPLY V. DEMAND & FOR SALE/RENT
6. CONFIDENCE GREED/CAUTION
7. FACTOR X SMSF; CHINA; FIRB & AUSSIE $
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NEXT
PROPERTY CYCLE
AVG 5% PA
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WHY, SAY, 5% PA
1. LIQUIDITY LOW INTEREST RATES
2. ECONOMY STRUCTURAL ISSUES & BUDGET DEFICIT
3. DEMAND CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS
4. RETURNS LOW AFFORDABILITY
5. SCARCITY SPARE CAPACITY; CHANGING DEMAND
6. CONFIDENCE MORE REACTIONARY – INTERNET/CELEBRITY
7. FACTOR X CHINA; COSTS & NEW URBAN FORMS
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PROPERTY
CLOCK
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12
9
6
3
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12
9
6
3
UPSWING
PEAK
DOWNTURN
TROUGH
RECOVERY
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12
9
6
3
UPSWING
PEAK
DOWNTURN
TROUGH
RECOVERY ENQUIRY INCREASING
RISE IN BUILDING ACTIVITY
RISING SALES
RETURN PRICE GROWTH
IMPROVING RENTS
MORE EQUAL MARKET
ENQUIRY DECLINING
ABANDONED PROJECTS
FALLING SALES
FALLING PRICES
FALLING RENTS
VERY cautious MARKET
STAGNATE ENQUIRY
SLOW BUILDING ACTIVITY
FLAT SALE VOLUMES
STEADY/FALLING PRICES
STABLE RENTS
BUYER’S MARKET
HIGH ENQUIRY
RAMPED UP APPROVALS
FAST SALES
STRONG PRICE GROWTH
RENTS PEAKING
SELLER’S MARKET
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12
9
6
3
CANBERRA
HOBART
MELBOURNE ADELAIDE
BRISBANE
SYDNEY
PERTH
DARWIN
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MARKET
INDICATORS
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TOTAL EMPLOYMENT GROWTH
MATUSIK ANALYSIS
SOURCE: ABS 6291.0.55.011
FEBRUARY 2014.
BRISBANE CITY
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TOTAL POPULATION
AS AT MID-2104
ANNUAL CHANGE
LAST YEAR
TOP 10 URBAN AREAS IN AUSTRALIA
2
4 5
BRISBANE 2.3M 45,000 3 RANK BASED ON
TOTAL POPULATION
PERTH 2.0M 65,000
ADELAIDE 1.3M 14,000
MELBOURNE 4.4M 79,000
NEWCASTLE 431K 10,000
CANBERRA 389K 14,000 1
3 6 7
8
9
10 SYDNEY 4.8M 64,000
BRISBANE 2.3M 45,000
GOLD COAST 615K 23,000
SUNSHINE COAST 297K 11,000
WOLLONGONG 286K 3,100
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BRISBANE CITY TOTAL RESIDENTIAL SALES
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MATUSIK ANALYSIS
SOURCE: RPDATA & QLD
GOVERNMENT.
QUARTERS.
MATUSIK ESTIMATE IN RED.
BRISBANE CITY RESIDENTIAL PRICES $
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ENTERING MARKET RECOVERY
POPULATION GROWTH
POSITIVE OPINION & COMMENTARY
SOUTHERN INVESTOR FOCUS
ENQUIRY & SALES INCREASING
JOB CREATION
PRICE & RENTAL GROWTH EXPECTATIONS
BUT LIMITS TO GROWTH & DEMAND
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HOUSING
DEMOGRAPHICS
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BRISBANE CITY HOUSING DEMO STATISTICS
60% NO CHILDREN AT HOME
25% COUPLES ONLY
25% LIVE ALONE
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BRISBANE CITY HOUSING DEMO STATISTICS
60% NO CHILDREN AT HOME
25% COUPLES ONLY
25% LIVE ALONE
70% DETACHED HOUSES
20% APARTMENTS
10% ATTACHED DWELLINGS
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BRISBANE CITY HOUSING DEMO STATISTICS
60% NO CHILDREN AT HOME
25% COUPLES ONLY
25% LIVE ALONE
70% DETACHED HOUSES
20% APARTMENTS
10% ATTACHED DWELLINGS
50% 4+ BED HOUSES
30% 3+ BED APARTMENTS
60% 3+ BED ATTACHED
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AFFORDABILITY
DETACHED HOUSE
$550,000 RATIO 6.9 TO DIS. INCOME
$495 WEEK 38% INCOME
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AFFORDABILITY
DETACHED HOUSE
$550,000 RATIO 6.9 TO DIS. INCOME
$495 WEEK 38% INCOME
ATTACHED DWELLINGS
$410,000 RATIO 5.1 TO DIS. INCOME
$395 WEEK 30% INCOME
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AFFORDABILITY
DETACHED HOUSE
$550,000 RATIO 6.9 TO DIS. INCOME
$495 WEEK 38% INCOME
ATTACHED DWELLINGS
$410,000 RATIO 5.1 TO DIS. INCOME
$395 WEEK 30% INCOME
A FORCED SHIFT IN DEMAND
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MARKET
DIRECTION
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GROSS RENTAL YIELDS - LONG TERM TENANCIES
TRADITIONAL ATTACHED PRODUCT/
HOUSES SMALL-LOT HOMES
SYDNEY 3.9% 4.7%
MELBOURNE 3.4% 4.2%
BRISBANE 4.2% 5.5% ADELAIDE 4.3% 4.9%
PERTH 4.2% 4.8%
CAPITALS 3.9% 4.7%
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MEDIAN DWELLING PRICES – AS AT JAN 2014
SYDNEY $660,000 13.4% PA
MELBOURNE $553,000 11.9%
BRISBANE $462,000 3.8% ADELAIDE $390,000 2.5%
PERTH $525,000 6.9%
CAPITALS $534,000 9.8%
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12
9
6
3
CANBERRA
HOBART
MELBOURNE ADELAIDE
BRISBANE
SYDNEY
PERTH
DARWIN
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BETTER
APARTMENT BUYING
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LOCATION
EMPLOYMENT
INFRASTRUCTURE
“PULSE POINT”
SUPPLY V. DEMAND
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EVERTON PARK AREA
UNDERLYING DEMAND 375pa
RECENT SUPPLY 390pa
BALANCED
INNER NORTH
UNDERLYING DEMAND 750pa
RECENT SUPPLY 1,500pa
OVERSUPPLIED
INNER WEST
UNDERLYING DEMAND 425pa
RECENT SUPPLY 250pa
UNDERSUPPLIED
INNER SOUTH
UNDERLYING DEMAND 675pa
RECENT SUPPLY 725pa
STILL BALANCED
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SITE
OVERALL SIZE
NO. OF DWELLINGS
OUTLOOK
ORIENTATION
ELEVATION
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DESIGN
PRODUCT SIZE
FLOOR PLATE LAYOUT
LIGHT + PRECEPTION OF SPACE
LIFT TO APARTMENT RATIO
SHARING – ENSUITES, EQUAL BEDROOMS
STORAGE
OWNER-RESIDENT RESALE APPEAL
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FOUR F’S
FIXTURES
FINISHES
FITTINGS
FACILITIES
BODY CORP. FEES
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MATUSIK.COM.AU
FOCUS REPORT
BRISBANE
RENTAL MARKET
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MATUSIK.COM.AU
FOCUS REPORT
BRISBANE
RENTAL MARKET
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THIS MATUSIK PRESENTATION IS OPINION & NOT ADVICE.
THE AUDIENCE SHOULD SEEK THEIR OWN PROFESSIONAL
ADVICE ON THE SUBJECT BEING DISCUSSED.
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END
NOTES
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RESIDENTIAL CYCLE
MARKET RECOVERY
COMING CYCLE/S LESS OVERALL GAINS
BRISBANE CITY MARKET IN RECOVERY
LIMITS TO CAPITAL GROWTH
DRIVE RENTAL RETURNS
‘ALTERNATE HOUSING’ BETTER INVESTMENTS