market outlook 26-11-12

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Market Outlook November 26, 2012

www.angelbroking.com


Dealers Diary The Indian market is expected to open in the green today tracing positive openingtrades in the SGX Nifty and major Asian indices.

The US markets saw significant strength during trading on Friday, thereby extending the strong upward move seen earlier in the holiday interrupted week.The rally on Wall Street came as traders continued to pick up stocks at reducedlevels following the sell-off that was seen in the weeks following the elections.Positive sentiment was also generated by a report showing an unexpectedimprovement in German business confidence in the month of November.Meanwhile, most of the European bourses ended the trading session on Friday inpositive territory, following a day of mostly directionless trading. Investor sentimentwas uplifted by the unexpected increase in German business confidence.

The domestic markets ended a volatile session little changed on Friday after uproarover the issue of foreign investment in multi-brand retail in the Lok Sabha forced

the Speaker to adjourn the House for the second day in a row, till Monday. Goingahead, the proceedings in the Parliament during the ongoing winter session will beon radar of investors.

Markets Today The trend deciding level for the day is 18,488 / 5,619 levels. If NIFTY trades abovethis level during the first half-an-hour of trade then we may witness a further rally up to 18,575 18,643 / 5,645 5,664 levels. However, if NIFTY trades below18,488 / 5,619 levels for the first half-an-hour of trade then it may correct up to18,420 18,334 / 5,601 5,575 levels.

SENSEX 18,334 18,420 18,488 18,575 18,643NIFTY 5,575 5,601 5,619 5,645 5,664

News Analysis Metal sector - Result Analysis - 2QFY2013 Ranbaxy recalls atrocastian from US Mahindra and Mahindra in race to acquire Aston Martin

Refer detailed news analysis on the following page

Net Inflows (November 22, 2012)

FII 1,576 1,393 183 5,024 55,455

MFs 323 406 (83) (1,070) (10,871)

FII Derivatives (November 23, 2012)

Index Futures 1,191 1,177 14 8,860

Stock Futures 3,659 3,758 (99) 30,764

Gainers / Losers

Jet Air India 506 15.9 Hindustan Copp 213 (20.0)

Zee Entert 204 4.3 MMTC 690 (4.6)

Crompton Greav 115 3.4 Astrazeneca Phar 1,355 (3.4) Ashok Leyland 27 3.1 Ranbaxy Lab 496 (3.3)

Gujarat Mnrl 210 2.9 Thermax 557 (3.2)

BSE Sensex (0.1) (10.8) 18,507

Nifty (0.0) (1.2) 5,627

MID CAP 0.1 3.7 6,597SMALL CAP 0.2 14.2 7,057

BSE HC (0.4) (28.8) 7,703

BSE PSU (0.8) (57.1) 7,004

BANKEX (0.3) (45.6) 13,179

AUTO 0.3 34.5 10,559

METAL (0.3) (30.2) 9,801

OIL & GAS 0.3 21.5 7,988

BSE IT 0.0 1.7 5,733

Dow Jones 1.4 172.8 13,010NASDAQ 1.4 40.3 2,967

FTSE 0.5 28.1 5,819

Nikkei 1.6 144.3 9,367

Hang Seng 0.8 170.8 21,914

Straits Times 0.1 2.7 2,989

Shanghai Com 0.6 11.8 2,027

INFY 2.8 1.2 $43.5

WIT 2.0 0.2 $8.3IBN (1.5) (0.6) $37.6

HDB 0.1 0.0 $40.3

Advances 1,315 647

Declines 1,498 841

Unchanged 142 95

BSE 2,101NSE 8,684

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Metal sector - Result Analysis - 2QFY2013

Metal companies reported a mixed top-lineperformance during 2QFY2013. Among steel players JSW Steel and Tata Steelsaw a net sales growth of 16.5% and 4.1% yoy, respectively, whereas SAIL

reported a 1.6% yoy decline in net sales. Among the non-ferrous players, Sterliteand Hindustan Zinc both reported an 8.8% yoy increase in net sales; however, thetop-line of the rest of the players fell due to lower aluminium realization. Except forCoal India, all other miners showed a decrease in top-line aided by lowervolumes.

Among the steel companies, Tata Steel reported a16.0% fall in operating profits due to higher labor and power costs; SAIL alsoreported a 16.4% fall in operating performance due to higher other expenditure.

Amongst the non-ferrous companies, except for Sterlite the remaining threecompanies in our coverage reported an average 14.2% fall in operating profits

mainly due to lower realizations coupled with higher costs. Mining companies alsofaced margin pressure led by lower volumes and/or higher costs.

Globally, sea-borne iron ore prices declined sharply during April - August 2012; however, the prices have risen sharply from August. Contractedcoking coal prices have declined gradually over the past one year. Coking coalcontract price for October December 2012 have been signed at US$170.Decline in coking coal prices is expected to benefit Indian steelmakers during2HFY2013, although INR depreciation would partially offset the coking coal pricedecline. A subdued demand, escalating eurozone debt crisis and falling iron oreand coking coal prices have resulted in a decline in steel prices globally over the

past six months. Domestic steel prices have also declined lately; however, INR depreciation against the USD has partially muted the decline in steel prices.

Non-ferrous companies are expected to continue to face a double whammy of declining product prices coupled with higher input costs during 2HFY2013. Basemetal prices have declined steeply over the past six months and hence realizationsfor companies are expected to decline during FY2013 (partially offset by INR depreciation against the USD). Further, although several aluminium companies(globally) have announced production cuts, we are yet to see any meaningfuldecline in production. Thus, lower realizations coupled with high and sticky pricesof key inputs such as imported coal, caustic soda, CP pitch and petroleum cokeare expected to hit margins of non-ferrous companies during 2HFY2013 in ourview. Nevertheless, we expect prices to improve in FY2014 as announcedproduction cuts restore demand-supply mismatch during FY2014.

Valuations inexpensive, but we remain selective: Metal stocks haveunderperformed over the past one year on account of eurozone debt crisis,subdued domestic demand, decreasing prices, rising input costs and delays inobtaining procedural clearances for mines. Nevertheless, we believe that therecent fall has left some stocks undervalued. We like companies with captiveassets, strong visibility over its expansion plans, low leverage levels andinexpensive valuations.

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Ranbaxy recalls atrocastian from US

Ranbaxy has voluntarily recalled some batches of atrocastian (generic version ofcholesterol-lowering drug Lipitor) from the US market. The company had said itwas a temporary disruption in the US and it had already initiated an investigation,

which was expected to be over in two weeks, after which it was likely to resumesupplies. This development is unlikely to impact the company significantly as theproduct is generic with 99% price erosion and since the product is withdrawn fromthe market only for two weeks. .

As per media reports, Mahindra and Mahindra (MM) is in the race to acquireBritish luxury car maker Aston Martin. Aston Martin is currently owned by aKuwaiti consortium of financial sponsors led by Investment Dar who boughtthe luxury car company from Ford Motor in 2007 for 479mn. Aston Martinpredominantly manufactures two door sports coupes like Vanquish, Vantage,DB9 or DB5 from its Warwickshire plant. The report states that MM hasemerged as the front-runner to become the strategic investor in Aston Martinedging out other contender Investindustrial, Italian private equity fund.

According to the report, MM is likely to pick up a minority stake of around40% but will have the option to raise it to 50%. The final shareholdingstructure however, is still being worked out. As per the deal, the three existingshareholders and the management team will retain the residual stake. Eventhe operations team is unlikely to change after a strategic partner comes in.The transaction may also see fresh equity being issued to MM and based onthe final structuring; MM may have to shell out around 120mn - 200mn forits strategic stake. This translates into an enterprise value of ~700mn (at thehigher end) including a 300mn high yield bond issued by Aston Martin lastyear. Aston Martin reported sales of 507mn in CY2011 with an EBITDA of76.2mn. At 700mn, the deal is based on 9.2x EV/EBITDA, which is broadly in-line with its global peers. We believe that the deal will be positive for MM inthe long as it will increase MM's visibility in the global markets and give accessto new technology. We await more clarity on this front

Economic and Political News Economy likely to grow at 5.5% in Q2: Chidambaram Current account deficit to come down to 3.5%: Rangarajan FM says as of now no plans for additional Govt. borrowing Govt. mulling selling residual stake in Hind Zinc, Balco

Corporate News

New drug policy will hurt investments in the sector

Airtel, Vodafone, Idea want part of CDMA spectrum for GSM tech Sesa Goa may start importing iron ore to run pig iron plant

Source: Economic Times, Business Standard, Business Line, Financial Express, Mint
http://www.business-standard.com/india/prof_page.php?search=Lipitor&select=1http://www.business-standard.com/india/prof_page.php?search=US+market&select=1http://www.business-standard.com/india/prof_page.php?search=US+market&select=1http://www.business-standard.com/india/prof_page.php?search=Lipitor&select=1

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Global economic events release calendar

Date Time Country Event Description Unit Period Bloomberg DataLast Reported Estimated

November 27, 2012 3:00PM UK GDP (YoY) % Change 3Q P -- --

8:30PM US Consumer Confidence S.A./ 1985=100 Nov 72.20 73.50

November 28, 2012 8:30PM US New home sales Thousands Oct 389.00 385.00

November 29, 2012 2:25PM Germany Unemployment change (000's) Thousands Nov 20.00 --

7:00PM US GDP Qoq (Annualised) % Change 3Q S 2.00 3.00

November 30, 2012 11:00AM India Qtrly GDP YoY% % Change 3Q 5.50 --

December 1, 2012 6:30AM China PMI Manufacturing Value Nov 50.20 --

December 3, 2012 3:00PM UK PMI Manufacturing Value Nov 47.50 --

December 6, 2012 3:30PM Euro Zone Euro-Zone GDP s.a. (QoQ) % Change 3Q P (0.10) --

5:30PM UK BOE Announces rates % Ratio Dec 6 0.50 0.50

6:15PM Euro Zone ECB announces interest rates % Dec 6 0.75 --

December 7, 2012 3:00PM UK Industrial Production (YoY) % Change Oct (2.60) --

7:00PM US Change in Nonfarm payrolls Thousands Nov 171.00 --

7:00PM US Unnemployment rate % Nov 7.90 --December 9, 2012 7:00AM China Consumer Price Index (YoY) % Change Nov 1.70 --

11:00AM China Industrial Production (YoY) % Change Nov 9.60 --

December 10, 2012 5:29PM China Exports YoY% % Change Nov 11.60 --

December 12, 2012 11:00AM India Industrial Production YoY % Change Oct (0.40) --

3:00PM UK Jobless claims change % Change Nov 10.10 --

11:00PM US FOMC rate decision % Dec 12 0.25 --

December 13, 2012 7:00PM US Producer Price Index (mom) % Change Nov (0.20) --

December 14, 2012 12:00PM India Monthly Wholesale Prices YoY% % Change Nov 7.45 --

3:30PM Euro Zone Euro-Zone CPI (YoY) % Nov 2.50 --

7:00PM US Consumer price index (mom) % Change Nov 0.10 --7:45PM US Industrial Production % Nov (0.40) --

December 18, 2012 11:00AM India RBI Repo rate % Dec 18 8.00 --

11:00AM India RBI Cash Reserve ratio % Dec 18 4.25 --

3:00PM UK CPI (YoY) % Change Nov 2.70 --

Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research

November 26, 2012

Market Outlook

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Market StrategyNovember 26, 2012


Macro watch

Exhibit 1 : Q uarterly G D P trends

3. 5

5. 7

9 .0

7. 5

8. 5

7. 68. 2

9. 2

8. 0

6. 76. 1

5. 3 5. 5

3. 0

4. 0

5. 0

6. 0

7. 0

8. 0

9. 0

10.0

4 Q F Y 0 9

1 Q F Y 1 0

2 Q F Y 1 0

3 Q F Y 1 0

4 Q F Y 1 0

1 Q F Y 1 1

2 Q F Y 1 1

3 Q F Y 1 1

4 Q F Y 1 1

1 Q F Y 1 2

2 Q F Y 1 2

3 Q F Y 1 2

4 Q F Y 1 2

1 Q F Y 1 3

(%)

Source: CSO, Ang el Research

Exhibit 2 : IIP trends

Source: M O SPI, Ang el Research

Exhibit 3 : M onthly WPI inflation trends

9. 9 9. 5

7. 76. 9 7. 4

7. 7 7. 5 7. 6 7. 6 7. 5 7. 6 7. 8

0. 02. 0

4. 0

6. 0

8. 0

10.0

12.0

O c t - 1

1

N o v - 1 1

D e c - 1

1

J a n - 1

2

F e b

- 1 2

M a r - 1 2

A p r - 1 2

M a y - 1

2

J u n - 1

2

J u l - 1 2

A u g - 1

2

S e p - 1

2

(%)

Source: M O SPI, Ang el Research

Exhibit 4 : M a nufacturing a nd services PM I

48.0

50.0

52.0

54.0

56.0

58.0

60.0

S e p - 1

1

O c t - 1 1

N o v - 1

1

D e c - 1

1

J a n - 1

2

F e b

- 1 2

M a r - 1 2

A p r - 1 2

M a y - 1

2

J u n - 1

2

J u l - 1 2

A u g - 1

2

S e p - 1

2

M fg. PM I Services PM I

Source: Ma rket, Angel Research; N ote: Level above 50 indicates expansion

Exhibit 5 : Expo rts an d impo rts growth trends

(30.0)

(15.0)

0. 0

15.0

30.0

45.0

O c t - 1 1

N o v - 1

1

D e c - 1

1

J a n - 1

2

F e b

- 1 2

M a r - 1 2

A p r - 1 2

M a y - 1

2

J u n - 1

2

J u l - 1 2

A u g - 1

2

S e p - 1

2

Exp orts yo y growth Im ports yo y growth( %)

Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research

Exhibit 6 : Key policy rates

8.00

7.00

4.25

4.00

5.00

6.00

7.00

8.00

9.00

N o v - 1

1

D e c - 1

1

J a n - 1

2

F e b

- 1 2

M a r - 1 2

A p r - 1 2

M a y - 1

2

J u n - 1

2

J u l - 1 2

A u g - 1

2

S e p - 1

2

O c t - 1 2

Repo rate Reverse Repo rate C RR(%)

Source: RBI, Angel Research

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Company Name Reco CMP Target Mkt Cap Sales ( cr ) OPM(%) EPS ( ) PER(x) P/BV(x) RoE(%) EV/Sales(x)

( ) Price ( ) ( cr ) FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E

Agri / Agri Chemical

Rallis Neutral 155 - 3,009 1,466 1,686 14.8 14.8 7.0 8.1 22.1 19.1 4.7 4.0 22.6 22.5 2.1 1.8

United Phosphorus Buy 111 170 5,123 8,421 9,263 16.5 16.5 15.0 17.0 7.4 6.5 1.1 1.0 15.6 15.5 0.8 0.7

Auto & Auto Ancillary

Amara Raja Batteries Neutral 256 - 4,377 2,911 3,321 16.2 16.2 17.3 19.8 14.8 12.9 4.1 3.2 31.1 27.6 1.4 1.2

Apollo Tyres Buy 82 104 4,138 13,713 15,341 11.2 11.2 12.5 14.8 6.6 5.5 1.2 1.0 20.2 19.9 0.5 0.4 Ashok Leyland Buy 27 31 7,131 14,490 16,606 9.5 9.6 2.2 2.9 12.1 9.4 2.2 2.0 13.6 16.1 0.6 0.5

Automotive Axle# Buy 368 430 556 993 1,140 11.6 11.5 36.9 43.0 10.0 8.6 2.0 1.7 21.2 21.3 0.6 0.5Bajaj Auto Neutral 1,817 - 52,569 21,121 23,642 18.4 18.5 108.7 122.6 16.7 14.8 6.9 5.6 46.2 41.6 2.1 1.8Bharat Forge Buy 254 324 5,912 6,754 7,565 15.5 15.7 18.8 23.2 13.6 11.0 2.4 2.0 18.5 19.7 1.0 0.9

Bosch India* Neutral 8,829 - 27,721 8,776 10,276 16.6 18.0 331.9 417.7 26.6 21.1 5.0 4.1 18.7 19.5 2.8 2.4CEAT Buy 102 163 351 4,989 5,634 8.2 8.5 27.1 40.8 3.8 2.5 0.5 0.4 13.2 17.2 0.3 0.2

Exide Industries Accumulate 140 155 11,862 6,229 7,200 14.8 15.8 7.2 9.0 19.5 15.6 3.4 2.9 18.5 19.9 1.6 1.3FAG Bearings* Neutral 1,656 - 2,752 1,489 1,750 16.5 17.5 103.3 126.9 16.0 13.1 3.1 2.6 21.3 21.6 1.6 1.3

Hero Motocorp Accumulate 1,824 1,956 36,430 24,743 2 7,996 14.8 15.2 118.2 130.4 15.4 14.0 6.6 5.3 48.3 41.9 1.2 1.0JK Tyre Buy 113 165 462 7,517 8,329 6.6 6.6 37.2 41.3 3.0 2.7 0.5 0.5 18.8 17.8 0.3 0.3Mahindra and MahindraNeutral 954 - 58,583 40,035 46,272 11.5 11.6 54.7 62.8 17.5 15.2 3.9 3.3 24.3 23.4 1.2 1.0

Maruti Neutral 1,494 - 43,168 42,019 50,246 7.3 8.6 66.1 94.4 22.6 15.8 2.6 2.2 11.9 15.1 0.9 0.7Motherson Sumi Neutral 167 - 9,832 24,285 27,317 6.7 7.2 8.1 10.6 20.8 15.8 4.4 3.6 22.9 24.7 0.6 0.5

Subros Buy 30 35 178 1,286 1,479 9.4 9.7 2.6 5.1 11.4 5.9 0.6 0.6 5.6 10.3 0.4 0.4Tata Motors Buy 261 319 69,479 192,330 219,770 12.8 13.1 37.0 44.5 7.1 5.9 1.9 1.5 31.2 28.9 0.4 0.3

TVS Motor Buy 37 45 1,753 7,466 8,290 6.2 6.3 4.8 5.6 7.7 6.6 1.3 1.2 18.2 18.7 0.2 0.2

Capital Goods

ABB* Sell 709 573 15,015 7,796 9,907 4.8 7.8 9.2 22.0 77.0 32.2 5.6 4.9 7.5 16.4 1.9 1.5BGR Energy Neutral 257 - 1,851 3,605 4,542 11.8 10.7 25.1 27.9 10.2 9.2 1.5 1.3 31.1 27.1 1.0 0.8BHEL Neutral 225 - 54,985 47,801 43,757 18.5 18.0 24.6 21.8 9.1 10.3 2.7 2.3 33.5 24.5 1.0 1.1

Blue Star Buy 186 242 1,674 2,763 2,948 3.1 5.6 2.6 8.6 70.8 21.8 4.1 3.6 5.9 17.6 0.7 0.6Crompton Greaves Buy 115 145 7,348 12,370 14,277 5.2 7.3 4.0 7.8 28.6 14.7 1.9 1.8 6.9 12.6 0.6 0.5Jyoti Structures Buy 44 53 361 2,794 3,048 10.6 10.6 9.2 11.7 4.8 3.8 0.5 0.4 10.9 12.5 0.4 0.4

KEC International Buy 61 73 1,580 6,858 7,431 7.1 7.5 8.3 9.8 7.4 6.3 1.3 1.1 25.1 24.0 0.4 0.3LMW Reduce 2,076 1,992 2,339 2,369 2,727 11.7 11.7 143.4 166.0 14.5 12.5 2.4 2.2 17.4 18.4 0.5 0.4

Thermax Neutral 560 - 6,673 5,514 5,813 9.3 10.2 28.1 31.2 19.9 18.0 3.6 3.1 19.2 18.5 1.1 1.0


Market Outlook

Stock Watch

November 26, 2012

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Cement

ACC Neutral 1,381 - 25,928 11,085 12,415 21.6 21.4 79.4 83.1 17.4 16.6 3.4 3.0 20.1 19.2 2.1 1.7 Ambuja Cements Neutral 203 - 31,254 10,272 11,884 26.4 26.1 11.5 12.9 17.7 15.7 3.9 3.5 20.8 21.1 2.6 2.2

India Cements Neutral 83 - 2,548 4,293 4,666 17.7 18.1 8.6 10.8 9.7 7.7 0.7 0.7 7.5 9.0 1.0 0.9J K Lakshmi Cements Accumulate 131 143 1,602 2,082 2,423 22.9 23.1 20.8 22.5 6.3 5.8 1.1 1.0 18.4 17.4 0.9 1.1

Madras Cements Neutral 203 - 4,838 3,814 4,045 29.3 27.5 18.7 19.2 10.9 10.6 2.0 1.7 19.9 17.4 1.9 1.7Shree Cements^ Neutral 4,249 - 14,803 5,701 6,210 29.7 28.1 240.7 260.7 17.7 16.3 4.3 3.5 27.1 23.6 2.0 1.7

UltraTech Cement Neutral 1,900 - 52,086 21,368 24,043 22.5 23.5 103.5 121.4 18.4 15.7 3.4 2.9 20.2 20.1 2.4 2.2Construction

Ashoka Buildcon Buy 205 304 1,079 2,034 2,315 22.4 22.4 27.1 31.7 7.6 6.5 0.9 0.8 13.1 13.4 1.8 2.1

Consolidated Co Neutral 12 - 222 2,262 2,522 6.7 7.5 1.5 2.7 8.1 4.5 0.4 0.3 4.4 7.5 0.4 0.3IRB Infra Buy 122 164 4,068 3,843 4,212 43.1 43.6 16.8 17.8 7.3 6.9 1.2 1.1 18.3 17.0 3.2 3.5ITNL Buy 183 225 3,562 6,564 7,054 27.2 27.4 26.3 29.0 7.0 6.3 1.1 1.0 14.0 11.8 2.7 2.7

IVRCL Infra Neutral 39 - 1,201 4,249 6,897 7.8 8.2 0.3 3.3 127.0 11.9 0.5 0.5 0.4 4.4 0.9 0.6Jaiprakash Asso. Accumulate 89 100 19,005 13,842 15,863 26.9 26.4 3.7 4.6 24.4 19.5 1.5 1.4 6.2 7.3 2.8 2.6

Larsen & Toubro Accumulate 1,587 1,748 97,573 60,556 69,167 11.2 11.6 73.8 85.5 21.5 18.6 3.4 3.0 13.5 14.1 1.8 1.6Nagarjuna Const. Neutral 42 - 1,073 5,947 6,569 8.5 8.6 3.1 4.1 13.5 10.2 0.4 0.4 3.3 4.2 0.6 0.6

Punj Lloyd Neutral 49 - 1,642 11,892 13,116 9.0 9.0 1.8 3.2 27.3 15.4 0.6 0.5 2.5 3.7 0.6 0.5Sadbhav Engg. Buy 136 168 2,057 2,344 2,804 10.6 10.7 7.2 8.7 19.0 15.7 2.3 2.0 13.0 13.5 1.2 1.1

Simplex Infra Buy 176 251 873 6,882 8,032 9.1 9.1 23.2 31.3 7.6 5.6 0.7 0.6 9.1 11.2 0.5 0.4

Financials

Allahabad Bank Accumulate 134 152 6,713 6,392 7,238 2.7 2.8 30.3 33.3 4.4 4.0 0.7 0.6 14.8 14.5 - -

Andhra Bank Neutral 103 - 5,786 4,731 5,431 2.9 3.0 21.5 21.8 4.8 4.7 0.8 0.7 15.2 13.8 - -

Axis Bank Buy 1,255 1,476 53,552 15,686 18,687 3.1 3.2 116.8 138.0 10.7 9.1 2.0 1.7 20.0 20.2 - -Bank of Baroda Accumulate 727 817 28,481 15,436 18,208 2.5 2.6 111.8 137.4 6.5 5.3 1.0 0.9 15.8 17.0 - -

Bank of India Accumulate 270 294 15,504 12,491 14,883 2.2 2.4 43.8 63.7 6.2 4.2 0.8 0.7 12.1 15.8 - -Bank of Maharashtra Neutral 54 - 3,207 3,563 3,876 3.1 3.1 9.7 12.0 5.6 4.5 0.8 0.7 14.6 16.1 - -

Canara Bank Neutral 435 - 19,251 10,699 12,213 2.1 2.2 67.3 80.1 6.5 5.4 0.9 0.8 13.7 14.6 - -Central Bank Neutral 74 - 5,433 7,171 8,236 2.5 2.6 16.4 21.5 4.5 3.4 0.8 0.6 12.7 14.9 - -

Corporation Bank Accumulate 397 445 5,887 4,780 5,569 2.0 2.1 101.8 99.2 3.9 4.0 0.7 0.6 17.0 14.7 - -Dena Bank Buy 104 123 3,655 3,087 3,453 2.7 2.8 25.9 24.1 4.0 4.3 0.7 0.6 19.4 15.6 - -

Federal Bank Accumulate 462 491 7,897 2,617 2,968 3.3 3.2 45.9 51.7 10.1 8.9 1.3 1.1 13.1 13.3 - -


Market Outlook

Stock Watch

November 26, 2012

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Financials

HDFC Neutral 778 - 119,957 7,336 8,802 3.5 3.5 31.5 37.8 24.7 20.6 4.9 4.4 34.8 32.1 - -HDFC Bank Reduce 670 621 158,243 21,696 26,811 4.4 4.5 28.7 36.0 23.4 18.6 4.5 3.8 20.7 22.0 - -

ICICI Bank Buy 1,025 1,270 117,875 22,271 26,690 3.0 3.0 69.2 83.1 14.8 12.3 1.8 1.7 14.2 15.7 - -IDBI Bank Neutral 102 - 13,097 7,684 9,264 1.8 2.1 15.6 22.0 6.6 4.7 0.7 0.7 10.9 13.9 - -

Indian Bank Accumulate 178 195 7,639 5,874 6,551 3.2 3.2 40.6 41.8 4.4 4.3 0.7 0.6 18.1 16.4 - -IOB Neutral 75 - 5,981 7,050 8,313 2.3 2.5 12.3 19.9 6.1 3.8 0.6 0.5 8.8 13.1 - -

J & K Bank Neutral 1,307 - 6,334 2,762 2,885 3.6 3.6 226.7 193.0 5.8 6.8 1.3 1.1 24.4 17.7 - -LIC Housing Finance Buy 245 298 12,384 1,799 2,255 2.3 2.4 20.3 27.3 12.1 9.0 1.9 1.7 16.9 19.7 - -Oriental Bank Accumulate 315 347 9,201 6,277 7,090 2.6 2.7 60.5 65.1 5.2 4.8 0.8 0.7 15.0 14.4 - -

Punjab Natl.Bank Accumulate 734 843 24,904 19,652 22,601 3.2 3.3 135.0 164.3 5.4 4.5 0.9 0.8 16.3 17.3 - -South Ind.Bank Accumulate 23 25 3,072 1,556 1,750 2.8 2.7 3.5 3.9 6.6 6.0 1.1 1.0 19.1 16.9 - -

St Bk of India Buy 2,090 2,437 140,228 61,883 71,546 3.4 3.4 227.2 257.5 9.2 8.1 1.6 1.4 17.8 17.7 - -Syndicate Bank Accumulate 119 131 7,187 6,756 7,783 3.0 3.0 26.3 27.1 4.5 4.4 0.8 0.7 18.3 16.6 - -

UCO Bank Neutral 71 - 4,723 5,234 6,097 2.3 2.4 11.8 14.7 6.0 4.8 1.0 0.8 11.9 13.4 - -Union Bank Accumulate 227 250 12,481 9,912 11,536 2.8 2.9 40.4 46.7 5.6 4.9 0.9 0.8 16.1 16.4 - -United Bank Accumulate 67 74 2,406 3,500 3,912 2.6 2.8 15.8 21.2 4.2 3.1 0.6 0.5 13.1 15.7 - -

Vijaya Bank Neutral 55 - 2,733 2,354 2,754 2.0 2.2 7.4 10.2 7.5 5.4 0.8 0.7 9.3 11.9 - -Yes Bank Buy 419 492 14,960 3,270 4,240 2.8 3.0 34.5 42.2 12.2 9.9 2.6 2.1 23.5 23.5 - -

FMCG

Asian Paints Neutral 4,047 - 38,823 11,198 13,184 16.2 16.2 123.7 146.4 32.7 27.7 11.1 8.7 38.1 35.4 3.3 2.8Britannia Buy 483 584 5,772 5,627 6,581 4.9 5.7 18.3 24.7 26.4 19.6 9.6 7.4 39.1 42.7 0.9 0.8

Colgate Neutral 1,328 - 18,054 3,146 3,573 20.6 21.4 36.4 42.5 36.5 31.2 33.8 28.3 102.0 98.5 5.6 4.9Dabur India Neutral 122 - 21,290 6,124 7,101 17.0 16.8 4.5 5.2 27.3 23.4 11.3 8.9 43.2 41.5 3.5 3.0

GlaxoSmith Con* Neutral 3,043 - 12,798 3,124 3,663 17.1 17.6 104.5 123.8 29.1 24.6 9.1 7.3 34.4 32.8 3.8 3.1Godrej Consumer Neutral 689 - 23,447 6,355 7,548 18.4 18.6 22.8 27.6 30.2 25.0 6.9 5.7 26.4 26.1 3.8 3.1

HUL Neutral 530 - 114,506 25,350 28,974 13.3 13.5 14.7 17.1 35.9 31.1 28.5 20.1 84.5 75.8 4.3 3.7ITC Neutral 286 - 225,307 29,409 34,060 35.7 36.1 9.3 10.9 30.7 26.2 10.2 8.5 35.8 35.3 7.4 6.4

Marico Neutral 214 - 13,781 4,840 5,643 13.1 13.1 6.2 7.8 34.7 27.5 6.6 5.4 25.4 22.6 2.9 2.4Nestle* Neutral 4,612 - 44,465 8,529 10,079 20.8 21.1 113.1 137.8 40.8 33.5 24.5 17.1 70.5 60.2 5.3 4.4Tata Global Neutral 163 - 10,105 7,207 7,927 9.7 10.0 6.6 7.8 24.7 20.9 2.5 2.4 8.6 9.5 1.3 1.2


Market Outlook

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November 26, 2012

7/30/2019 Market Outlook 26-11-12

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IT

HCL Tech^ Neutral 636 - 44,168 24,214 26,772 19.5 18.1 44.0 48.0 14.5 13.2 3.4 2.9 24.0 22.0 1.7 1.5Hexaware* Buy 101 135 3,004 1,944 2,159 21.8 21.1 11.4 12.2 8.9 8.3 2.3 2.0 26.4 24.1 1.3 1.1

Infosys Accumulate 2,376 2,573 136,438 39,174 41,580 29.5 30.4 159.2 171.6 14.9 13.9 3.6 3.2 24.1 23.1 2.9 2.7Infotech Enterprises Accumulate 186 202 2,074 1,886 2,032 17.9 17.3 18.7 20.2 10.0 9.2 1.5 1.3 14.9 14.0 0.8 0.6

KPIT Cummins Accumulate 127 132 2,266 2,195 2,317 15.5 15.0 10.7 12.1 11.8 10.5 2.5 2.0 21.0 19.8 1.0 0.9Mahindra Satyam Accumulate 104 115 12,240 7,597 8,141 20.0 18.8 9.7 10.4 10.8 10.0 3.0 2.3 27.5 22.9 1.2 1.1

Mindtree Accumulate 666 747 2,729 2,324 2,437 20.0 17.7 73.3 74.7 9.1 8.9 2.2 1.7 24.1 19.7 0.9 0.8Mphasis& Neutral 395 - 8,289 5,700 5,993 18.0 16.9 37.0 37.3 10.7 10.6 1.5 1.3 14.3 12.6 1.0 0.8NIIT Accumulate 32 36 528 1,048 1,161 9.3 10.9 4.2 6.2 7.6 5.2 0.8 0.7 10.5 14.1 0.3 0.2

Persistent Neutral 476 - 1,904 1,261 1,352 26.4 24.7 48.2 54.0 9.9 8.8 1.9 1.6 19.0 17.9 1.2 1.0TCS Accumulate 1,288 1,410 252,110 61,053 67,313 28.7 29.1 69.7 76.2 18.5 16.9 6.0 4.9 32.6 29.1 3.9 3.5

Tech Mahindra Buy 906 1,070 11,563 6,603 7,150 19.8 18.4 92.9 102.0 9.8 8.9 2.3 1.9 23.7 21.0 1.8 1.6 Wipro Accumulate 367 421 90,279 43,219 47,241 20.0 20.0 26.1 28.1 14.0 13.1 2.7 2.3 19.3 17.9 1.8 1.5

Media

D B Corp Buy 214 259 3,919 1,581 1,784 23.3 25.0 11.6 14.4 18.5 14.8 3.6 3.1 21.0 22.3 2.4 2.0HT Media Accumulate 95 113 2,236 2,111 2,272 15.0 15.2 7.4 8.3 12.9 11.5 1.4 1.3 11.3 11.4 0.7 0.6

Jagran Prakashan Buy 101 117 3,209 1,503 1,681 23.1 23.1 6.4 7.3 15.9 14.0 3.9 3.5 25.8 26.5 2.3 2.0PVR Neutral 244 - 705 625 732 17.4 17.1 13.3 15.6 18.3 15.6 2.0 1.8 13.2 13.8 1.6 1.3

Sun TV Network Neutral 385 - 15,156 1,942 2,237 77.2 75.5 17.6 19.1 21.9 20.1 5.5 4.9 25.8 25.2 7.2 6.2

Metals & Mining

Bhushan Steel Neutral 482 - 10,229 11,307 14,287 29.5 29.1 45.1 51.0 10.7 9.4 1.2 1.1 12.2 12.2 3.0 2.4

Coal India Neutral 358 - 226,126 66,666 70,292 25.7 27.3 24.2 26.6 14.8 13.5 4.4 3.5 33.1 29.1 2.4 2.1

Electrosteel Castings Accumulate 26 29 891 1,984 2,074 10.6 11.6 0.8 2.0 30.8 12.7 0.5 0.2 1.7 4.1 0.6 0.6Hind. Zinc Accumulate 131 145 55,478 12,446 13,538 52.3 52.9 15.0 16.4 8.8 8.0 1.7 1.5 21.4 19.7 2.6 2.0

Hindalco Neutral 108 - 20,658 79,148 89,258 9.4 9.0 15.0 15.6 7.2 6.9 0.6 0.6 8.8 8.4 0.6 0.6JSW Steel Neutral 717 - 15,996 39,586 41,459 17.6 17.0 78.7 90.1 9.1 8.0 0.9 0.8 10.2 10.7 0.8 0.8

MOIL Accumulate 238 261 4,005 941 1,019 47.3 48.3 25.8 28.1 9.2 8.5 1.5 1.3 16.7 16.2 1.9 1.6Monnet Ispat Buy 284 344 1,830 2,501 3,264 22.2 24.6 41.8 55.2 6.8 5.2 0.7 0.6 11.3 13.4 1.8 1.3

Nalco Neutral 45 - 11,623 6,898 7,841 9.9 14.7 2.0 3.2 22.8 14.2 1.0 1.0 4.3 6.8 1.2 1.1NMDC Buy 167 198 66,013 11,209 12,525 78.4 78.3 18.5 20.6 9.0 8.1 2.2 1.8 27.0 24.6 4.1 3.4

SAIL Neutral 78 - 32,218 47,252 60,351 14.2 14.8 9.6 11.7 8.2 6.7 0.7 0.7 9.4 10.6 1.1 0.9


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November 26, 2012

7/30/2019 Market Outlook 26-11-12

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Metals & Mining

Sesa Goa Accumulate 166 183 14,410 4,551 6,640 32.8 34.4 33.7 39.3 4.9 4.2 0.8 0.7 18.3 18.3 3.8 2.6Sterlite Inds Accumulate 96 110 32,363 43,185 45,442 23.3 23.7 16.8 17.9 5.7 5.4 0.6 0.6 11.6 11.2 0.7 0.7

Tata Steel Buy 364 463 35,386 145,725 154,108 8.3 9.5 22.0 44.5 16.5 8.2 0.8 0.7 4.9 9.3 0.5 0.5Sarda Accumulate 137 153 490 1,442 1,494 17.6 17.3 27.2 28.7 5.0 4.8 0.6 0.5 11.5 11.0 0.7 0.7

Prakash Industries Buy 46 73 623 2,694 2,906 14.6 16.6 16.4 20.8 2.8 2.2 0.3 0.3 11.4 12.8 0.5 0.3Godawari Power andIspat Buy 117 143 372 2,342 2,470 13.7 15.3 27.7 33.8 4.2 3.5 0.4 0.4 10.9 11.4 0.6 0.6

Oil & GasCairn India Buy 327 382 62,471 17,567 17,643 76.2 72.3 61.1 56.8 5.4 5.8 1.1 0.9 22.0 17.5 2.7 2.3GAIL Neutral 340 - 43,128 46,652 54,142 15.7 15.7 34.0 35.3 10.0 9.6 1.7 1.5 18.5 16.8 0.7 0.5

ONGC Buy 251 312 214,828 147,139 154,821 33.9 33.7 30.7 32.3 8.2 7.8 1.4 1.3 18.3 17.2 1.2 1.1Reliance Industries Neutral 773 - 253,156 362,700 380,031 7.9 8.0 60.0 63.3 12.9 12.2 1.2 1.1 11.1 10.6 0.7 0.6

Gujarat Gas* Neutral 299 - 3,840 3,128 3,707 13.2 11.7 22.8 23.5 13.1 12.7 4.0 3.5 33.2 29.2 1.1 0.9Indraprastha Gas Neutral 259 - 3,632 3,213 3,643 23.3 23.5 24.3 25.7 10.7 10.1 2.4 2.1 25.0 22.1 1.2 1.1Petronet LNG Buy 155 183 11,648 30,077 33,570 6.6 6.3 15.1 15.3 10.3 10.2 2.6 2.1 28.4 23.1 0.4 0.4Gujarat State PetronetLtd. Neutral 72 - 4,035 1,079 1,034 91.8 91.9 8.8 8.4 8.2 8.5 1.4 1.2 17.9 15.0 3.5 3.6

Pharmaceuticals

Alembic Pharma Buy 62 91 1,174 1,624 1,855 14.2 15.6 6.6 9.1 9.4 6.8 2.4 1.8 27.9 29.9 0.9 0.8 Aurobindo Pharma Neutral 173 - 5,025 5,243 5,767 14.6 14.6 11.8 12.6 14.6 13.7 1.8 1.6 17.9 16.4 1.5 1.3

Aventis* Neutral 2,158 - 4,970 1,482 1,682 15.5 15.5 95.1 104.4 22.7 20.7 4.0 3.1 18.6 17.0 3.1 2.7Cadila Healthcare Accumulate 821 926 16,811 6,148 7,386 18.6 19.6 32.7 44.8 25.1 18.3 5.5 4.4 23.7 26.6 3.1 2.5Cipla Accumulate 381 419 30,627 8,151 9,130 25.0 24.0 19.5 20.9 19.6 18.3 3.4 2.9 18.8 17.2 3.6 3.1

Dr Reddy's Accumulate 1,741 1,859 29,549 10,696 11,662 20.7 21.0 83.7 92.9 20.8 18.7 4.3 3.6 22.4 20.8 3.0 2.7Dishman Pharma Buy 113 145 912 1,280 1,536 20.2 20.2 10.4 14.5 10.9 7.8 0.9 0.8 8.7 11.0 1.4 1.2

GSK Pharma* Neutral 1,998 - 16,927 2,651 2,993 31.7 31.2 76.0 82.4 26.3 24.3 7.6 6.8 20.1 26.3 5.6 4.9Indoco Remedies Buy 68 89 628 685 837 15.2 15.2 7.4 8.9 9.2 7.7 1.4 1.2 16.4 17.0 1.1 0.9

Ipca labs Accumulate 442 485 5,576 2,850 3,474 21.0 21.0 29.9 37.3 14.8 11.9 3.5 2.8 26.7 26.4 2.1 1.8Lupin Buy 560 652 25,058 8,426 10,082 19.7 20.0 26.3 31.3 21.3 17.9 5.0 4.0 26.0 24.7 3.1 2.6

Orchid Chemicals #N/A 96 679Ranbaxy* Neutral 496 - 20,953 12,046 11,980 18.0 15.8 31.3 29.8 15.9 16.6 5.4 4.3 39.1 28.9 1.8 1.8Sun Pharma Neutral 705 - 72,932 9,752 12,134 41.6 41.6 26.0 28.2 27.1 25.0 5.1 4.4 20.3 18.8 6.7 5.2

Power

CESC Neutral 278 - 3,479 5,218 5,644 24.2 23.8 44.6 47.6 6.3 5.9 0.7 0.6 11.0 10.6 1.4 1.5


Market Outlook

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November 26, 2012

7/30/2019 Market Outlook 26-11-12

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Power

GIPCL Buy 68 78 1,023 1,523 1,568 30.3 30.3 5.4 11.5 12.5 5.9 0.7 0.6 5.6 11.3 1.1 1.0NTPC Neutral 160 - 131,515 74,111 85,789 22.7 23.1 12.1 13.7 13.2 11.6 1.6 1.5 12.6 13.2 2.4 2.2

Real Estate

Anant Raj Sell 93 78 2,738 657 875 52.0 56.1 8.4 12.7 11.0 7.3 0.7 0.6 6.3 8.9 5.5 4.1DLF Neutral 201 - 34,091 9,878 12,033 44.7 46.1 9.6 13.4 21.0 15.0 1.3 1.3 6.4 8.7 5.9 4.9

HDIL Accumulate 104 115 4,353 2,441 3,344 55.1 48.2 22.7 26.6 4.6 3.9 0.4 0.4 8.8 9.4 3.6 2.7

MLIFE Reduce 427 396 1,742 813 901 26.2 26.6 32.0 37.1 13.3 11.5 1.4 1.3 10.4 11.0 2.5 2.2Telecom

Bharti Airtel Neutral 305 - 115,977 81,984 90,718 32.1 33.8 10.9 16.9 28.0 18.1 2.1 1.9 7.6 10.6 2.1 1.8Idea Cellular Neutral 93 - 30,709 22,234 24,161 26.9 27.7 3.3 4.9 28.0 18.8 2.2 1.9 7.7 10.3 1.8 1.6

Rcom Neutral 63 - 13,086 21,090 22,308 31.8 29.9 3.0 3.8 20.9 16.7 0.4 0.4 1.7 2.1 2.3 2.1

zOthers

Abbott India Accumulate 1,434 1,590 3,047 1,629 1,886 11.8 13.3 60.8 79.5 23.6 18.0 4.9 4.0 22.0 24.4 1.7 1.4

Bajaj Electricals Accumulate 200 217 1,991 3,497 3,968 6.6 7.6 9.8 15.5 20.4 12.9 2.6 2.2 12.7 17.4 0.6 0.5Cera Sanitaryware Neutral 407 - 515 427 528 15.7 14.6 30.0 34.0 13.6 12.0 3.0 2.4 24.6 22.5 1.3 1.1

Cravatex Buy 422 545 109 272 308 7.2 7.3 37.5 45.4 11.3 9.3 2.7 2.1 23.7 22.7 0.5 0.5CRISIL Neutral 930 - 6,535 982 1,136 34.3 34.3 34.3 40.0 27.1 23.3 12.3 9.8 50.9 46.9 6.1 5.2

Finolex Cables Buy 49 61 754 2,304 2,552 9.9 9.1 8.2 10.1 6.0 4.9 0.8 0.7 13.7 14.7 0.3 0.2Force Motors Accumulate 482 537 628 2,318 2,700 5.0 5.7 45.0 67.0 10.7 7.2 0.5 0.5 5.0 7.0 0.2 0.2Goodyear India Buy 309 360 714 1,494 1,607 6.4 7.8 23.9 33.0 12.9 9.4 2.0 1.8 16.5 20.1 0.3 0.2

Greenply Industries Accumulate 290 309 699 1,925 2,235 10.6 10.9 29.6 44.1 9.8 6.6 1.6 1.3 16.8 21.0 0.6 0.5Hitachi Buy 121 146 278 873 989 4.4 6.5 6.4 12.2 19.0 9.9 1.5 1.4 8.3 14.4 0.4 0.3

Honeywell Automation* Accumulate 2,442 2,842 2,159 1,745 1,993 4.0 5.3 59.5 90.4 41.0 27.0 3.1 2.7 8.1 11.3 1.2 1.0Styrolution ABS India* Accumulate 670 744 1,178 1,059 1,116 8.5 9.5 36.0 42.0 18.6 16.0 2.7 2.4 15.4 16.0 1.1 1.0

ITD Cementation Neutral 253 - 291 1,323 1,455 12.4 12.4 23.2 27.7 10.9 9.1 0.7 0.7 6.8 7.6 0.7 0.6Jyothy Laboratories Neutral 173 - 2,797 1,228 1,443 9.0 10.9 3.9 6.4 44.6 27.2 4.4 4.1 10.1 15.6 2.8 2.3

MCX Reduce 1,514 1,440 7,721 553 624 65.3 66.3 62.5 72.0 24.2 21.0 6.7 5.8 27.5 27.4 11.0 9.3MRF Buy 10,023 12,884 4,251 11,804 12,727 10.4 10.5 1,289.9 1,431.3 7.8 7.0 1.5 1.2 21.3 19.4 0.5 0.4Page Industries Accumulate 3,343 3,602 3,729 836 1,023 20.2 20.6 105.6 133.4 31.7 25.1 16.1 11.4 59.3 53.2 4.5 3.7

Relaxo Footwears Buy 801 933 961 1,019 1,208 11.0 12.5 47.0 66.7 17.1 12.0 4.2 3.2 28.2 30.1 1.1 0.9Sintex Industries Buy 58 79 1,745 4,751 5,189 16.3 16.6 13.6 15.8 4.3 3.7 0.6 0.5 12.9 13.2 0.7 0.6

Siyaram Silk Mills Buy 295 366 277 1,043 1,149 12.3 12.9 65.7 73.3 4.5 4.0 0.9 0.7 21.0 19.6 0.5 0.5


Market Outlook

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November 26, 2012

7/30/2019 Market Outlook 26-11-12

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zOthers

S. Kumars Nationwide Neutral 13 - 385 7,134 7,985 19.7 19.4 12.2 14.1 1.1 0.9 0.1 0.1 11.3 11.5 0.6 0.6SpiceJet Buy 39 43 1,903 5,720 6,599 5.3 6.8 3.6 5.4 10.9 7.3 15.8 5.0 - - 0.4 0.4

TAJ GVK Buy 72 108 453 300 319 35.8 36.2 7.9 9.1 9.2 7.9 1.2 1.1 13.9 14.4 1.8 1.6Tata Sponge Iron Buy 306 384 471 750 803 18.6 18.4 65.4 69.1 4.7 4.4 0.7 0.6 16.5 15.3 0.2 0.2

TVS Srichakra Buy 271 335 207 1,476 1,643 7.0 8.2 32.6 55.9 8.3 4.8 1.3 1.1 16.8 24.8 0.4 0.3United Spirits Neutral 1,879 - 24,578 10,289 11,421 12.8 12.8 26.0 45.3 72.3 41.5 3.3 3.1 5.8 7.6 2.7 2.4

Vesuvius India Neutral 346 - 703 560 611 16.1 17.0 24.7 28.8 14.0 12.0 2.1 1.8 15.8 16.2 1.1 1.0Source: Company, Angel Research; Note: *December year end; #September year end; &October year end; Price as on November 23, 2012


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market outlook 26-11-12

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