market outlook 19th dec 2012

7/30/2019 Market Outlook 19th Dec 2012

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Market OutlookDecember 19, 2012

www.angelbroking.com


Dealers Diary

The Indian market is expected to in green mirroring positive opening trades in most

of the Asian markets, tracking higher US markets.The U.S. markets extended gains into a second session Tuesday, rising on signs of

progress on Capitol Hill in reaching an accord to avoid steep spending cuts and

tax increases next year. The markets continued to benefit from optimism about

potentially avoiding the looming fiscal cliff. Positive sentiment was also generated

by a report from the National Association of Home Builders showing that U.S.

homebuilder confidence improved for the eighth consecutive month in December

as housing market index climbed to 47 in December from a revised 45 in

November.

Indian markets rose notably on expectations the RBI would ease its policy on

January 29, when it meets for third quarter review. The central bank left its keypolicy rates as well as cash reserve ratio unchanged yesterday in its monetary

policy review, but hinted easing of rates in January.

Markets Today

The trend deciding level for the day is 19,303 / 5,875 levels. If NIFTY trades above

this level during the first half-an-hour of trade then we may witness a further rally

up to 19,458 19,551 / 5,927 5,958 levels. However, if NIFTY trades below

19,303 / 5,875 levels for the first half-an-hour of trade then it may correct up to

19,210 19,056 / 5,845 5,793 levels.

SENSEX 19,056 19,210 19,303 19,458 19,551NIFTY 5,793 5,845 5,875 5,927 5,958

News Analysis

Monetary policy treads cautiously on inflation concerns Lok Sabha passes Banking Bill, paving way for new banking licenses Lok Sabha passes Companies bill GSM operators lost 9mn customers in November: COAI MM to buy out Navistars stake in the Indian JV NALCO resumes operations at bauxite mine

Refer detailed news analysis on the following page

Net Inflows (December 17, 2012)

FII 3,541 2,592 9,49 13,204 118,224

MFs 463 743 (280) (2,153) (19,695)

FII Derivatives (December 18, 2012)

Index Futures 1,309 1,323 (14) 12,711

Stock Futures 2,995 3,096 (101) 34,895

Gainers / Losers

Unitech 35 5.8 JPPower 39 (6.9)

Zee Entertainment 222 5.5 Hindustan Zinc 139 (2.7)

REC 245 5.1 TTK Prestige 3,544 (2.5)

JSW Steel 804 4.8 IPCA Lab 487 (2.2)

Shriram Transport 766 4.7 Max India 240 (2.1)

BSE Sensex 0.6 120.3 19,365

Nifty 0.7 38.9 5,897

MID CAP 0.5 36.9 7,077

SMALL CAP 0.6 43.8 7,431

BSE HC 0.7 54.9 8,071

BSE PSU 0.6 44.0 7,228

BANKEX 0.3 49.1 14,322

AUTO 0.4 50.0 11,287

METAL 1.8 191.1 10,947

OIL & GAS (0.2) (17.3) 8,384

BSE IT 0.5 27.2 5,549

Dow Jones 0.9 115.6 13,351NASDAQ 1.5 43.9 3,055

FTSE 0.4 23.8 5,936

Nikkei 1.0 94.1 9,923

Hang Seng (0.1) (18.9) 22,495

Straits Times (0.1) (1.9) 3,157

Shanghai Com 0.1 2.1 2,162

INFY 1.4 0.6 $42.0

WIT 0.2 0.0 $8.7IBN 1.3 0.6 $44.6

HDB 0.1 0.1 $41.0

Advances 1,649 844

Declines 1,289 614

Unchanged 131 69

BSE 3,066

NSE 13,976


2/15



Monetary policy treads cautiously on inflation concerns

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) in its Mid-Quarter Monetary Policy Review

maintained status quo on rates against market expectations of a 25bp cut in the

CRR. The RBI maintained its key policy rate the repo rate unchanged at 8.0%.

Consequently, the reverse repo rate remains at 7.0% and the marginal standingfacility (MSF) rate and bank rate remain unchanged at 9.0%. The CRR too remains

unchanged at 4.25% of banks net demand and time liabilities (NDTL).

Headline WPI inflation for the month of November 2012 moderated for the

second consecutive month to 7.2% yoy as compared to 7.5% yoy during October

2012. Deceleration in the headline print comes on the back of moderation in

inflation of manufactured products mainly due to softening commodity prices and

the lagged impact of rupee appreciation. Core (manufactured non-food) inflation

for the month of November edged to a two-year low of 4.5%, well within the RBIs

comfort level.

We believe that despite the positive surprises in the recent inflation prints, the RBI

has treaded cautiously since it expects inflation to inch upwards over the next two

months. In addition, the RBI has also indicated that despite easing inflationary

pressures food and commodity prices remain elevated and the same pose a risk in

the face of domestic supply constraints.

On the positive note, we believe that the RBIs policy stance has increasingly shifted

towards supporting growth rather than focusing purely on inflation management.

In addition, it has further reiterated its guidance given in the 2QFY2013 policy

review in October on monetary policy easing in the fourth quarter with an ebbingof inflationary pressures.

Going ahead, the outlook for inflation is expected to improve since softening

commodity prices along with a high base are likely to lend a positive bias on

bringing down headline inflation. We expect the RBI to ease the repo rate by 25bp

50bp in the fourth quarter.

Lok Sabha passes Banking Bill, paving way for newbanking licenses

The passage of amendments to the Banking Laws in the lower house of theparliament is expected to pave the way for issuance of the new bank licenses by

the RBI. Amongst various other things, the bill offers vital powers to RBI, firstly to

supervise group companies (i.e to oversee connected lending) and secondly to

supersede the entire board and make changes that can last upto 12 months (in a

way, power to control banks in the event of non-compliance to necessary

standards). Additionally, for private banks, the bill makes voting rights

proportional to shareholding by removing existing cap of 10% (with a key

restriction entailing the RBI approval for acquisition of 5% or more of a bank's

paid-up capital) and for PSU banks, the cap on voting rights is raised from 1% to

10%. It allows PSU banks to use rights issues to access capital markets for raising

capital.

As per our long held view, based on the discussion paper and draft guidelines for

the issue of licenses, L&T (through L&T Finance) looks like the most eligible


3/15



candidate amongst corporates who have evinced interest in getting a bank license,

as it is not a promoter driven corporate and has the requisite financial strength

and corporate stature to promote a bank, in our view. However, post the sharp

run-up, we believe L&T finance stock is very expensively priced (to put it in

perspective, its market cap is similar to an existing new generation private bank,

which is also growing rapidly and has 3x L&T Finance Balance sheet and PAT).Likely entry of new banks in the banking industry would also increase the

acquisition prospects of older private banks. Amongst the old private banks, we

like South Indian Bank, both as a standalone investment and also as a potential

acquisition candidate, keeping in mind current valuation parameters like P/ABV

and Market cap/Branch.

Dashboard - Old Private banks

LVB NR - 3.4 8.9 0.7 12.7 1.2 10.4

INGBK NR - 14.7 10.6 1.1 14.3 1.8 14.5KVB NR - 12.2 13.1 1.5 20.8 1.8 9.8

FEDBK Accum. 549 9.2 15.1 1.4 14.4 1.4 10.1

DHB NR - 2.1 7.4 (0.8) (14.7) 0.9 -

KTKBK NR - 6.1 10.4 0.7 9.8 1.2 8.8

SIB Buy 31 5.1 12.3 1.1 21.6 1.2 7.9

CUB NR - 9.5 12.5 1.7 24.9 2.1 9.6

DCB NR - 14.0 12.7 0.7 8.1 1.4 16.4

Source: Company, Angel Research, Note: NR Not Rated

Lok Sabha passes Companies bill

The Lok Sabha on Tuesday passed amendments to the Companies Bill, 2011

which were first introduced in Parliament in 2008. The amendments when enacted

are expected to improve the quality of corporate governance by bringing about

greater transparency and accountability. Some of the amendments to the

Companies Bill are as follows:

prevent corporate frauds by strengthening the Serious Fraud InvestigationOffice (SFIO) with statutory powers.

protect small investors by regulating entities such as chit funds hold auditors of the company more accountable, also limiting the number of

companies an auditor can serve to 20.

hold directors more accountable It also mandates that companies above a certain size spend at least 2% of

their net profit on corporate social responsibility activities.

The bill also provides for greater protection of minority shareholders andemployees.

It also mandates at least one woman director in certain companies to promotegender diversity in the board.


4/15



GSM operators lost 9 mn customers in November: COAI

According to Cellular Operators Association of India (COAI), GSM operators lost

9.28mn customers in November 2012, bringing the number of GSM users down

to 663.78mn at end of November. The top three GSM operators, having ~67%

market share, Bharti Airtel, Vodafone and Idea Cellular - together lost more than6.74mn subscribers in November.

Market leader Bharti Airtel, which has a 27.7% share, lost 2.80mn users, pulling

down its customer base to 183.61mn as of November. Vodafones subscriber

base, too, dropped by 2.38mn to 150.76mn and Idea lost 1.56mn users in

November. Aircel lost 1.46mn users, which brought its user base down to

65.32mn at the end of November 2012. Uninor lost 437,915 users, while

Videocon lost 379,787 subscribers in the month. According to COAI, state-owned

BSNL did not add a single subscriber in November and had a 14.64% share in the

GSM market with 97.17mn subscribers. MTNL, another state-owned telecom

operator, was least affected as it lost only 741 users, taking its user base to 5.12million. According to COAI data, subscriber base dropped the most in category A

circles (4.20mn) in November, followed by category B (3.43mn).

MM to buy out Navistars stake in the Indian JV

Mahindra and Mahindra (MM) has announced that it will buy out Navistars stake

in the commercial vehicle joint venture (JV), Mahindra Navistar Automotives Ltd

(MNAL) and Mahindra Navistar Engines Pvt Ltd (MNEPL) for `175cr (US$33mn).

The truck making JV, MNAL was formed in 2005 and the engine making JV,

MNEPL was formed in 2007. MM intends to acquire Navistars 49% stake in both

the JVs following necessary regulatory approval and make them wholly owned

subsidiaries. As per the agreement, post the stake buyout, Navistar can continue

sourcing components from India while MM would continue to provide engineering

services to Navistar. Further, the Navistar group would continue to support MM

through a license agreement and extend necessary support to MNAL and MNEPL

for the purposes of business continuity. While the exact reason of the stake sale by

Navistar is not known, reports indicate that this could be due to the companys

focus on turning around its core business in the US. We believe that the complete

ownership of operations of MNAL and MNEPL would augur well for MM in the

long run. However in the near term, MM would require to infuse more capital as

both the entities are loss making. MNAL and MNEPL reported a combined loss of`375cr in FY2012. At `964, MM is trading at 15.4x FY2014E earnings.

NALCO resumes operations at bauxite mine

NALCO has resumed operations at Panchpatmali bauxite mine in the Koraput

district of Odisha after getting a temporary one-year permit. It has reserves of over

310mn tonne of bauxite. Mining operations at Panchpatmali mine were

suspended after Nalcos 30-year lease expired on November 16, 2012.

Nevertheless, as Nalco is a public sector unit, the soft stance from the government

agencies does not surprise us. Hence, we maintain our estimates and


5/15



Economic and Political News

India's US government debt holding dips to $58.9 billion Indo-Asean FTA in services & investments to be announced on December 20 Gujarat polls: Record voter turnout of 71.32%Corporate News

Aurobindo gets final nod from US FDA for anti-HIV drug Eros promoters to offload 2.8% stake by OFS Jagran Prakashan raise `150cr via NCDs RIL has agreed to CAG audit: Oil Ministry Tata Sons appoints Cyrus Mistry Chairman from December 28Source: Economic Times, Business Standard, Business Line, Financial Express, Mint


6/15

Global economic events release calendar

Date Time Country Event Description Unit Period Bloomberg Data

Last Reported Estimated

December 19, 2012 7:00PM US Housing Starts Thousands Nov 894.00 871.00

7:00PM US Building permits Thousands Nov 868.00 875.00

December 20, 2012 7:00PM US Initial Jobless claims Thousands Dec 15 343.00 360.00

8:30PM Euro Zone Euro-Zone Consumer Confidence Value Dec A (26.90) (26.50)

7:00PM US GDP Qoq (Annualised) % Change 3Q T 2.70 2.80

8:30PM US Existing home sales Millions Nov 4.79 4.90

December 21, 2012 3:00PM UK GDP (YoY) % Change 3Q F (0.10) (0.10)

December 27, 2012 8:30PM US Consumer Confidence S.A./ 1985=100 Dec 73.70 71.00

8:30PM US New home sales Thousands Nov 368.00 378.00

January 1, 2013 6:30AM China PMI Manufacturing Value Dec 50.60 --

January 2, 2013 2:25PM Germany PMI Manufacturing Value Dec F 46.30 --

3:00PM UK PMI Manufacturing Value Dec 49.10 49.10

January 3, 2013 2:25PM Germany Unemployment change (000's) Thousands Dec 5.00 --

January 4, 2013 2:25PM Germany PMI Services Value Dec F 52.10 --

7:00PM US Change in Nonfarm payrolls Thousands Dec 146.00 --

7:00PM US Unnemployment rate % Dec 7.70 --

January 9, 2013 5:29PM China Consumer Price Index (YoY) % Change Dec 2.00 --

5:29PM China Industrial Production (YoY) % Change Dec 10.10 --

January 10, 2013 5:29PM India Imports YoY% % Change Dec 6.40 --

5:29PM India Exports YoY% % Change Dec (4.20) --

5:29PM China Exports YoY% % Change Dec 2.90 --

5:30PM UK BOE Announces rates % Ratio Jan 10 0.50 0.50

6:15PM Euro Zone ECB announces interest rates % Jan 10 0.75 --

January 11, 2013 3:00PM UK Industrial Production (YoY) % Change Nov (3.00) --January 13, 2013 5:29PM China Real GDP (YoY) % Change 4Q 7.40 --

January 14, 2013 12:00PM India Monthly Wholesale Prices YoY% % Change Dec 7.24 --

11:00AM India Industrial Production YoY % Change Nov 8.20 --

January 15, 2013 7:00PM US Producer Price Index (mom) % Change Dec (0.80) --

January 16, 2013 3:30PM Euro Zone Euro-Zone CPI (YoY) % Dec 2.20 --

7:00PM US Consumer price index (mom) % Change Dec (0.30) --

7:45PM US Industrial Production % Dec 1.05 --

January 23, 2013 3:00PM UK Jobless claims change % Change Dec (3.00) --

January 31, 2013 12:45AM US FOMC rate decision % Jan 30 0.25 --

February 14, 2013 12:30PM Germany GDP nsa (YoY) % Change 4Q P 0.40 --

3:30PM Euro Zone Euro-Zone GDP s.a. (QoQ) % Change 4Q A (0.10) --

Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research

December 19, 2012

Market Outlook


7/15



Macro watch

Exhibit 1 :Q uarterly G D P trends

Source: CSO, Ang el Research

Exhibit 2 :IIP trends

Source: M O SPI, Ang el Research

Exhibit 3 :M onthly WPI inflation trends

Source: M O SPI, Ang el Research

Exhibit 4 :M a nufacturing a nd services PM I

Source: Ma rket, Angel Research; N ote: Level above 50 indicates expansion

Exhibit 5 :Expo rts an d impo rts growth trends

Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research

Exhibit 6 :Key policy rates

Source: RBI, Angel Research

3. 5

5. 7

9. 0

7. 5

11.2

8. 5

7. 68 .2

9. 2

8. 0

6. 76. 1

5. 3 5. 5 5. 3

3. 0

4. 0

5. 0

6. 0

7. 0

8. 0

9. 0

10.0

11.0

12.0

4Q

FY09

1Q

FY10

2Q

FY10

3Q

FY10

4Q

FY10

1Q

FY11

2Q

FY11

3Q

FY11

4Q

FY11

1Q

FY12

2Q

FY12

3Q

FY12

4Q

FY12

1Q

FY13

2Q

FY13

(%)

6. 0

2 .7

1. 0

4. 3

(2.8)

(1.3)

2 .5

(2.0)

(0.1)

2. 3

(0.7)

8 .2

(4.0)

(2.0)

-

2. 0

4. 0

6. 0

8. 0

10.0

Nov

-11

Dec

-11

Jan

-12

Fe

b-1

2

M

ar-

12

Apr-

12

M

ay

-12

Jun

-12

Ju

l-12

Aug

-12

Sep

-12

O

ct-12

(%)

7 .7

6 .9

7 .4

7 .7

7 .5 7 .67 .6 7 .5

8 .0 8 .1

7 .5

7 .2

6 .2

6 .4

6 .6

6 .8

7 .0

7 .2

7 .4

7 .6

7 .8

8 .0

8 .2

Dec-11

Jan-12

Feb-12

M

ar-12

Apr-12

May-12

Jun-12

Jul-12

Aug-12

Sep-12

O

ct-12

Nov-12

(%)

48.0

50.0

52.0

54.0

56.0

58.0

60.0

Nov

-11

Dec

-11

Jan

-12

Fe

b-1

2

M

ar

-12

Apr

-12

M

ay

-12

Jun

-12

Ju

l-12

Aug

-12

Sep

-12

O

ct-12

Nov

-12

M fg. PM I Services PM I

(30.0)

(15.0)

0 .0

15.0

30.0

45.0

Nov

-11

Dec

-11

Jan

-12

Fe

b-1

2

M

ar-

12

Apr-

12

M

ay

-12

Jun

-12

Ju

l-12

Aug

-12

Sep

-12

O

ct-12

Exp orts yoy g ro wth Im ports yo y growth( %)

8.00

7.00

4.25

4.00

5.00

6.00

7.00

8.00

9.00

Nov

-11

Dec

-11

Jan

-12

Fe

b-

12

M

ar-

12

Apr-

12

M

ay

-12

Jun

-12

Ju

l-12

Aug

-12

Sep

-12

O

ct-12

Nov

-12

Repo rate Reverse Repo rate C RR(%)


8/15

Company Name Reco CMP Target Mkt Cap Sales ( cr ) OPM(%) EPS () PER(x) P/BV(x) RoE(%) EV/Sales(x)

( ) Price ( ) ( cr ) FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E

Agri / Agri Chemical

Rallis Neutral 152 - 2,956 1,466 1,686 14.8 14.8 7.0 8.1 21.7 18.8 4.6 3.9 22.6 22.5 2.1 1.8

United Phosphorus Buy 124 170 5,727 8,421 9,263 16.5 16.5 15.0 17.0 8.3 7.3 1.2 1.1 15.6 15.5 0.8 0.7

Auto & Auto Ancillary

Amara Raja Batteries Accumulate 248 270 4,231 2,911 3,321 16.2 16.2 17.3 19.8 14.3 12.5 3.9 3.1 31.1 27.6 1.4 1.2

Apollo Tyres Accumulate 88 96 4,440 13,713 15,341 11.2 11.2 12.5 14.8 7.1 5.9 1.3 1.1 20.2 19.9 0.5 0.4

Ashok Leyland Accumulate 28 31 7,330 14,490 16,606 9.5 9.6 2.2 2.9 12.4 9.7 2.3 2.0 13.6 16.1 0.6 0.5

Automotive Axle# Neutral 360 - 543 1,103 1,240 11.0 11.3 39.1 45.0 9.2 8.0 1.7 1.6 19.5 22.8 0.5 0.4Bajaj Auto Neutral 2,096 - 60,650 21,121 23,642 18.4 18.5 108.7 122.6 19.3 17.1 8.0 6.4 46.2 41.6 2.5 2.1

Bharat Forge Buy 266 324 6,200 6,754 7,565 15.5 15.7 18.8 23.2 14.2 11.5 2.5 2.1 18.5 19.7 1.1 0.9

Bosch India* Neutral 9,063 - 28,457 8,776 10,276 16.6 18.0 331.9 417.7 27.3 21.7 5.1 4.2 18.7 19.5 2.9 2.4

CEAT Buy 105 163 358 4,989 5,634 8.2 8.5 27.1 40.8 3.9 2.6 0.5 0.4 13.2 17.2 0.3 0.2

Exide Industries Accumulate 141 155 11,985 6,229 7,200 14.8 15.8 7.2 9.0 19.7 15.8 3.4 2.9 18.5 19.9 1.6 1.3

FAG Bearings* Neutral 1,738 - 2,887 1,489 1,750 16.5 17.5 103.3 126.9 16.8 13.7 3.3 2.7 21.3 21.6 1.7 1.4

Hero Motocorp Neutral 1,882 - 37,571 24,743 27,996 14.8 15.2 118.2 130.4 15.9 14.4 6.8 5.4 48.3 41.9 1.2 1.0

JK Tyre Buy 124 165 509 7,517 8,329 6.6 6.6 37.2 41.3 3.3 3.0 0.6 0.5 18.8 17.8 0.3 0.3

Mahindra and MahindraNeutral 964 - 59,206 40,035 46,272 11.5 11.6 54.7 62.8 17.6 15.4 3.9 3.3 24.3 23.4 1.2 1.0

Maruti Neutral 1,475 - 42,608 42,019 50,246 7.3 8.6 66.1 94.4 22.3 15.6 2.5 2.2 11.9 15.1 0.9 0.7

Motherson Sumi Neutral 200 - 11,757 24,285 27,317 6.7 7.2 8.1 10.6 24.9 18.9 5.2 4.3 22.9 24.7 0.6 0.6

Subros Buy 31 35 185 1,286 1,479 9.4 9.7 2.6 5.1 11.9 6.1 0.7 0.6 5.6 10.3 0.4 0.4

Tata Motors Accumulate 298 319 79,357 192,330 219,770 12.8 13.1 37.0 44.5 8.1 6.7 2.2 1.7 31.2 28.9 0.5 0.4

TVS Motor Buy 40 45 1,910 7,466 8,290 6.2 6.3 4.8 5.6 8.4 7.2 1.4 1.3 18.2 18.7 0.2 0.2

Capital Goods

ABB* Sell 707 573 14,983 7,796 9,907 4.8 7.8 9.2 22.0 76.9 32.1 5.6 4.9 7.5 16.4 1.9 1.5BGR Energy Neutral 263 - 1,899 3,605 4,542 11.8 10.7 25.1 27.9 10.5 9.4 1.5 1.4 31.1 27.1 1.0 0.8

BHEL Neutral 230 - 56,319 47,801 43,757 18.5 18.0 24.6 21.8 9.4 10.6 2.8 2.4 33.5 24.5 1.0 1.1

Blue Star Buy 191 242 1,720 2,763 2,948 3.1 5.6 2.6 8.6 72.7 22.4 4.2 3.7 5.9 17.6 0.7 0.7

Crompton Greaves Buy 118 145 7,586 12,370 14,277 5.2 7.3 4.0 7.8 29.6 15.2 2.0 1.8 6.9 12.6 0.6 0.6

Jyoti Structures Buy 45 53 370 2,794 3,048 10.6 10.6 9.2 11.7 4.9 3.9 0.5 0.5 10.9 12.5 0.4 0.4

KEC International Accumulate 65 73 1,662 6,858 7,431 7.1 7.5 8.3 9.8 7.8 6.6 1.3 1.1 25.1 24.0 0.4 0.4

LMW Reduce 2,177 1,992 2,452 2,369 2,727 11.7 11.7 143.4 166.0 15.2 13.1 2.5 2.3 17.4 18.4 0.6 0.4

Thermax Neutral 603 - 7,185 5,514 5,813 9.3 10.2 28.1 31.2 21.5 19.3 3.9 3.4 19.2 18.5 1.2 1.1


Market Outlook

Stock Watch

December 19, 2012


9/15



Cement

ACC Neutral 1,410 - 26,480 11,085 12,415 21.6 21.4 79.4 83.1 17.8 17.0 3.5 3.1 20.1 19.2 2.1 1.8

Ambuja Cements Neutral 206 - 31,762 10,272 11,884 26.4 26.1 11.5 12.9 18.0 16.0 3.9 3.5 20.8 21.1 2.7 2.2

India Cements Neutral 89 - 2,728 4,293 4,666 17.7 18.1 8.6 10.8 10.3 8.3 0.8 0.7 7.5 9.0 1.0 0.9

J K Lakshmi Cements Accumulate 144 143 1,764 2,082 2,423 22.9 23.1 20.8 22.5 6.9 6.4 1.2 1.0 18.4 17.4 0.9 1.2

Madras Cements Neutral 221 - 5,258 3,814 4,045 29.3 27.5 18.7 19.2 11.8 11.5 2.2 1.9 19.9 17.4 2.0 1.7

Shree Cements^ Neutral 4,478 - 15,601 5,701 6,210 29.7 28.1 240.7 260.7 18.6 17.2 4.5 3.7 27.1 23.6 2.2 1.8

UltraTech Cement Neutral 2,011 - 55,144 21,368 24,043 22.5 23.5 103.5 121.4 19.4 16.6 3.6 3.1 20.2 20.1 2.5 2.3Construction

Ashoka Buildcon Buy 207 304 1,088 2,034 2,315 22.4 22.4 27.1 31.7 7.6 6.5 0.9 0.8 13.1 13.4 1.8 2.1

Consolidated Co Neutral 13 - 245 2,262 2,522 6.7 7.5 1.5 2.7 8.9 5.0 0.4 0.4 4.4 7.5 0.4 0.4

IRB Infra Buy 129 164 4,286 3,843 4,212 43.1 43.6 16.8 17.8 7.7 7.2 1.3 1.2 18.3 17.0 3.3 3.6

ITNL Accumulate 210 225 4,079 6,564 7,054 27.2 27.4 26.3 29.0 8.0 7.2 1.3 1.1 14.0 11.8 2.7 2.8

IVRCL Infra Neutral 44 - 1,349 4,249 6,897 7.8 8.2 0.3 3.3 142.5 13.3 0.6 0.6 0.4 4.4 0.9 0.6

Jaiprakash Asso. Neutral 102 - 21,851 13,842 15,863 26.9 26.4 3.7 4.6 27.9 22.4 1.7 1.6 6.2 7.3 3.0 2.7

Larsen & Toubro Accumulate 1,656 1,748 101,828 60,556 69,167 11.2 11.6 73.8 85.5 22.5 19.4 3.6 3.1 13.5 14.1 1.8 1.6

Nagarjuna Const. Reduce 54 44 1,392 5,947 6,569 8.5 8.6 3.1 4.1 17.5 13.2 0.6 0.5 3.3 4.2 0.6 0.6

Punj Lloyd Neutral 59 - 1,958 11,892 13,116 9.0 9.0 1.8 3.2 32.6 18.3 0.7 0.6 2.5 3.7 0.6 0.5

Sadbhav Engg. Buy 135 168 2,043 2,344 2,804 10.6 10.7 7.2 8.7 18.8 15.6 2.3 2.0 13.0 13.5 1.2 1.1

Simplex Infra Buy 214 251 1,059 6,882 8,032 9.1 9.1 23.2 31.3 9.2 6.8 0.8 0.7 9.1 11.2 0.5 0.5

Financials

Allahabad Bank Accumulate 168 181 8,400 6,392 7,238 2.7 2.8 30.3 33.3 5.6 5.1 0.8 0.7 14.8 14.5 - -

Andhra Bank Neutral 117 - 6,572 4,731 5,431 2.9 3.0 21.5 21.8 5.5 5.4 0.9 0.8 15.2 13.8 - -

Axis Bank Accumulate 1,351 1,550 57,669 15,686 18,687 3.1 3.2 116.8 138.0 11.6 9.8 2.1 1.8 20.0 20.2 - -Bank of Baroda Neutral 850 - 33,270 15,436 18,208 2.5 2.6 111.8 137.4 7.6 6.2 1.1 1.0 15.8 17.0 - -

Bank of India Accumulate 322 334 18,453 12,491 14,883 2.2 2.4 43.8 63.7 7.3 5.1 1.0 0.8 12.1 15.8 - -

Bank of Maharashtra A ccumulate 59 64 3,464 3,563 3,876 3.1 3.1 9.7 12.0 6.1 4.9 0.8 0.7 14.6 16.1 - -

Canara Bank Buy 472 544 20,916 10,699 12,213 2.1 2.2 67.3 80.1 7.0 5.9 1.0 0.9 13.7 14.6 - -

Central Bank Neutral 83 - 6,102 7,171 8,236 2.5 2.6 16.4 21.5 5.1 3.9 0.9 0.7 12.7 14.9 - -

Corporation Bank Accumulate 448 480 6,630 4,780 5,569 2.0 2.1 101.8 99.2 4.4 4.5 0.7 0.7 17.0 14.7 - -

Dena Bank Accumulate 120 132 4,185 3,087 3,453 2.7 2.8 25.9 24.1 4.6 5.0 0.8 0.7 19.4 15.6 - -

Federal Bank Neutral 497 - 8,503 2,617 2,968 3.3 3.2 45.9 51.7 10.9 9.6 1.4 1.2 13.1 13.3 - -


Market Outlook

Stock Watch

December 19, 2012


10/15


11/15



IT

HCL Tech^ Neutral 632 - 43,915 24,214 26,772 19.5 18.1 44.0 48.0 14.4 13.2 3.4 2.9 24.0 22.0 1.7 1.5

Hexaware* Buy 90 135 2,660 1,944 2,159 21.8 21.1 11.4 12.2 7.9 7.3 2.0 1.7 26.4 24.1 1.1 0.9

Infosys Accumulate 2,271 2,573 130,385 39,174 41,580 29.5 30.4 159.2 171.6 14.3 13.2 3.4 3.1 24.1 23.1 2.8 2.5

Infotech Enterprises Neutral 191 - 2,132 1,886 2,032 17.9 17.3 18.7 20.2 10.2 9.5 1.5 1.3 14.9 14.0 0.8 0.7

KPIT Cummins Buy 111 132 1,986 2,195 2,317 15.5 15.0 10.7 12.1 10.4 9.2 2.2 1.8 21.0 19.8 0.9 0.8

Mahindra Satyam Accumulate 106 115 12,517 7,597 8,141 20.0 18.8 9.7 10.4 11.0 10.2 3.0 2.3 27.5 22.9 1.2 1.1

Mindtree Accumulate 708 747 2,908 2,324 2,437 20.0 17.7 73.3 74.7 9.7 9.5 2.3 1.9 24.1 19.7 1.0 0.8Mphasis& Neutral 379 - 7,973 5,700 5,993 18.0 16.9 37.0 37.3 10.3 10.2 1.5 1.3 14.3 12.6 0.9 0.8

NIIT Buy 31 36 507 1,048 1,161 9.3 10.9 4.2 6.2 7.3 5.0 0.8 0.7 10.5 14.1 0.3 0.2

Persistent Neutral 492 - 1,966 1,261 1,352 26.4 24.7 48.2 54.0 10.2 9.1 1.9 1.6 19.0 17.9 1.2 1.1

TCS Accumulate 1,211 1,410 237,000 61,053 67,313 28.7 29.1 69.7 76.2 17.4 15.9 5.7 4.6 32.6 29.1 3.8 3.4

Tech Mahindra Accumulate 946 1,070 12,091 6,603 7,150 19.8 18.4 92.9 1 02.0 10.2 9.3 2.4 1.9 23.7 21.0 1.9 1.7

Wipro Accumulate 376 421 92,586 43,219 47,241 20.0 20.0 26.1 28.1 14.4 13.4 2.8 2.4 19.3 17.9 1.8 1.5

Media

D B Corp Buy 220 259 4,025 1,581 1,784 23.3 25.0 11.6 14.4 19.0 15.2 3.7 3.2 21.0 22.3 2.5 2.1

HT Media Accumulate 103 113 2,409 2,111 2,272 15.0 15.2 7.4 8.3 13.9 12.4 1.5 1.4 11.3 11.4 0.8 0.7

Jagran Prakashan Buy 101 117 3,197 1,503 1,681 23.1 23.1 6.4 7.3 15.8 13.9 3.9 3.5 25.8 26.5 2.3 2.0

PVR Neutral 286 - 826 682 786 17.3 16.9 17.6 19.7 16.2 14.6 1.9 1.7 14.9 14.5 1.5 1.3

Sun TV Network Neutral 414 - 16,329 1,942 2,237 77.2 75.5 17.6 19.1 23.5 21.7 5.9 5.3 25.8 25.2 7.7 6.6

Metals & Mining

Bhushan Steel Neutral 456 - 9,681 11,307 14,287 29.5 29.1 45.1 51.0 10.1 8.9 1.2 1.0 12.2 12.2 2.9 2.3

Coal India Neutral 353 - 222,778 66,666 70,292 25.7 27.3 24.2 26.6 14.6 13.3 4.3 3.5 33.1 29.1 2.4 2.1

Electrosteel Castings Buy 24 29 829 1,984 2,074 10.6 11.6 0.8 2.0 28.7 11.8 0.5 0.2 1.7 4.1 0.6 0.5Hind. Zinc Neutral 139 - 58,605 12,446 13,538 52.3 52.9 15.0 16.4 9.3 8.5 1.8 1.5 21.4 19.7 3.0 2.3

Hindalco Neutral 127 - 24,401 79,148 89,258 9.4 9.0 15.0 15.6 8.5 8.2 0.7 0.7 8.8 8.4 0.7 0.6

JSW Steel Neutral 804 - 17,930 39,586 41,459 17.6 17.0 78.7 90.1 10.2 8.9 1.0 0.9 10.2 10.7 0.8 0.8

MOIL Neutral 265 - 4,444 941 1,019 47.3 48.3 25.8 28.1 10.2 9.4 1.6 1.4 16.7 16.2 2.3 1.9

Monnet Ispat Accumulate 299 344 1,926 2,501 3,264 22.2 24.6 41.8 55.2 7.2 5.4 0.7 0.7 11.3 13.4 1.9 1.3

Nalco Neutral 49 - 12,538 6,898 7,841 9.9 14.7 2.0 3.2 24.5 15.3 1.1 1.0 4.3 6.8 1.3 1.2

NMDC Buy 163 198 64,446 11,209 12,525 78.4 78.3 18.5 20.6 8.8 7.9 2.2 1.8 27.0 24.6 3.7 3.1

SAIL Neutral 88 - 36,452 47,252 60,351 14.2 14.8 9.6 11.7 9.2 7.5 0.8 0.8 9.4 10.6 1.2 1.0


Market Outlook

Stock Watch

December 19, 2012


12/15



Metals & Mining

Sesa Goa Neutral 195 - 16,965 4,551 6,640 32.8 34.4 33.7 39.3 5.8 5.0 1.0 0.9 18.3 18.3 4.2 2.9

Sterlite Inds Neutral 118 - 39,773 43,185 45,442 23.3 23.7 16.8 17.9 7.0 6.6 0.8 0.7 11.6 11.2 0.9 0.8

Tata Steel Buy 414 463 40,203 145,725 154,108 8.3 9.5 22.0 44.5 18.8 9.3 0.9 0.8 4.9 9.3 0.6 0.5

Sarda Buy 128 153 460 1,442 1,494 17.6 17.3 27.2 28.7 4.7 4.5 0.5 0.5 11.5 11.0 0.7 0.6

Prakash Industries Buy 48 73 647 2,694 2,906 14.6 16.6 16.4 20.8 2.9 2.3 0.3 0.3 11.4 12.8 0.5 0.3

Godawari Power andIspat

Buy 120 143 380 2,342 2,470 13.7 15.3 27.7 33.8 4.3 3.5 0.4 0.4 10.9 11.4 0.6 0.6

Oil & Gas

Cairn India Buy 328 382 62,549 17,567 17,643 76.2 72.3 61.1 56.8 5.4 5.8 1.1 0.9 22.0 17.5 2.7 2.3

GAIL Neutral 347 - 44,073 46,652 54,142 15.7 15.7 34.0 35.3 10.2 9.9 1.8 1.6 18.5 16.8 0.7 0.5

ONGC Buy 256 312 219,234 147,139 154,821 33.9 33.7 30.7 32.3 8.4 7.9 1.4 1.3 18.3 17.2 1.2 1.1

Reliance Industries Neutral 831 - 272,099 362,700 380,031 7.9 8.0 60.0 63.3 13.9 13.1 1.3 1.2 11.1 10.6 0.7 0.7

Gujarat Gas* Neutral 305 - 3,913 3,128 3,707 13.2 11.7 22.8 23.5 13.4 13.0 4.0 3.6 33.2 29.2 1.1 0.9

Indraprastha Gas Neutral 263 - 3,688 3,213 3,643 23.3 23.5 24.3 25.7 10.8 10.2 2.5 2.1 25.0 22.1 1.2 1.1

Petronet LNG Accumulate 162 183 12,128 30,077 33,570 6.6 6.3 15.1 15.3 10.7 10.6 2.7 2.2 28.4 23.1 0.4 0.4

Gujarat State PetronetLtd.

Neutral 75 - 4,220 1,079 1,034 91.8 91.9 8.8 8.4 8.6 8.9 1.4 1.3 17.9 15.0 3.6 3.7

Pharmaceuticals

Alembic Pharma Buy 69 91 1,301 1,624 1,855 14.2 15.6 6.6 9.1 10.5 7.6 2.6 2.0 27.9 29.9 0.9 0.8

Aurobindo Pharma Neutral 191 - 5,556 5,243 5,767 14.6 14.6 11.8 12.6 16.2 15.2 2.0 1.7 17.9 16.4 1.5 1.3

Aventis* Neutral 2,255 - 5,194 1,482 1,682 15.5 15.5 95.1 104.4 23.7 21.6 4.2 3.3 18.6 17.0 3.3 2.8

Cadila Healthcare Accumulate 873 926 17,872 6,148 7,386 18.6 19.6 32.7 44.8 26.7 19.5 5.9 4.7 23.7 26.6 3.2 2.6

Cipla Neutral 412 - 33,116 8,151 9,130 25.0 24.0 19.5 20.9 21.2 19.7 3.7 3.2 18.8 17.2 3.8 3.3

Dr Reddy's Neutral 1,840 - 31,229 10,696 11,662 20.7 21.0 83.7 92.9 22.0 19.8 4.5 3.8 22.4 20.8 3.2 2.8

Dishman Pharma Buy 119 145 956 1,280 1,536 20.2 20.2 10.4 14.5 11.4 8.2 1.0 0.9 8.7 11.0 1.4 1.2

GSK Pharma* Neutral 2,062 - 17,468 2,651 2,993 31.7 31.2 76.0 82.4 27.1 25.0 7.8 7.0 20.1 26.3 5.8 5.0

Indoco Remedies Buy 67 89 619 685 837 15.2 15.2 7.4 8.9 9.1 7.6 1.4 1.2 16.4 17.0 1.1 0.9

Ipca labs Neutral 487 - 6,138 2,850 3,474 21.0 21.0 29.9 37.3 16.3 13.1 3.9 3.1 26.7 26.4 2.3 1.9

Lupin Accumulate 609 652 27,230 8,426 10,082 19.7 20.0 26.3 31.3 23.1 19.4 5.4 4.3 26.0 24.7 3.3 2.7

Ranbaxy* Neutral 502 - 21,227 12,046 11,980 18.0 15.8 31.3 29.8 16.1 16.9 5.5 4.4 39.1 28.9 1.8 1.7

Sun Pharma Neutral 736 - 76,132 9,752 12,134 41.6 41.6 26.0 28.2 28.3 26.1 5.3 4.5 20.3 18.8 6.9 5.3

Power

CESC Neutral 307 - 3,838 5,218 5,644 24.2 23.8 44.6 47.6 6.9 6.5 0.7 0.7 11.0 10.6 1.5 1.5

GIPCL Accumulate 71 78 1,068 1,523 1,568 30.3 30.3 5.4 11.5 13.1 6.1 0.7 0.7 5.6 11.3 1.2 1.0


Market Outlook

Stock Watch

December 19, 2012


13/15



Power

NTPC Neutral 155 - 128,011 74,111 85,789 22.7 23.1 12.1 13.7 12.8 11.3 1.6 1.4 12.6 13.2 2.3 2.1

Real Estate

Anant Raj Sell 98 78 2,898 657 875 52.0 56.1 8.4 12.7 11.7 7.7 0.7 0.7 6.3 8.9 5.5 4.1

DLF Neutral 224 - 37,973 9,878 12,033 44.7 46.1 9.6 13.4 23.3 16.7 1.5 1.4 6.4 8.7 6.2 5.1

HDIL Neutral 118 - 4,955 2,441 3,344 55.1 48.2 22.7 26.6 5.2 4.4 0.4 0.4 8.8 9.4 3.8 2.9

MLIFE Neutral 414 - 1,692 813 901 26.2 26.6 32.0 37.1 13.0 11.2 1.3 1.2 10.4 11.0 2.4 2.1

TelecomBharti Airtel Neutral 313 - 118,920 81,984 90,718 32.1 33.8 10.9 16.9 28.7 18.6 2.2 2.0 7.6 10.6 2.1 1.8

Idea Cellular Neutral 95 - 31,507 22,234 24,161 26.9 27.7 3.3 4.9 28.8 19.3 2.2 2.0 7.7 10.3 1.9 1.7

Rcom Neutral 76 - 15,635 21,090 22,308 31.8 29.9 3.0 3.8 24.9 19.9 0.4 0.4 1.7 2.1 2.4 2.2

zOthers

Abbott India Accumulate 1,476 1,590 3,136 1,629 1,886 11.8 13.3 60.8 79.5 24.3 18.6 5.0 4.2 22.0 24.4 1.7 1.4

Bajaj Electricals Neutral 211 - 2,103 3,497 3,968 6.6 7.6 9.8 15.5 21.5 13.6 2.8 2.4 12.7 17.4 0.6 0.5

Cera Sanitaryware Neutral 415 - 526 427 528 15.7 14.6 30.0 34.0 13.9 12.2 3.0 2.5 24.6 22.5 1.3 1.1

Cravatex Buy 448 545 116 272 308 7.2 7.3 37.5 45.4 12.0 9.9 2.8 2.2 23.7 22.7 0.5 0.5

CRISIL Neutral 1,040 - 7,301 982 1,136 34.3 34.3 34.3 40.0 30.3 26.0 13.7 11.0 50.9 46.9 7.0 5.9

Finolex Cables Neutral 59 - 909 2,304 2,552 9.9 9.1 8.2 10.1 7.3 5.9 1.0 0.9 13.7 14.7 0.3 0.3

Force Motors Accumulate 492 537 641 2,318 2,700 5.0 5.7 45.0 67.0 10.9 7.3 0.5 0.5 5.0 7.0 0.2 0.2

Goodyear India Accumulate 340 360 784 1,494 1,607 6.4 7.8 23.9 33.0 14.2 10.3 2.2 1.9 16.5 20.1 0.3 0.2

Greenply Industries Neutral 344 - 831 1,925 2,235 10.6 10.9 29.6 44.1 11.6 7.8 1.9 1.5 16.8 21.0 0.7 0.6

Hitachi Accumulate 141 146 324 873 989 4.4 6.5 6.4 12.2 22.2 11.6 1.8 1.6 8.3 14.4 0.4 0.3

Honeywell Automation* Buy 2,604 2,842 2,303 1,745 1,993 4.0 5.3 59.5 90.4 43.8 28.8 3.3 2.9 8.1 11.3 1.1 1.0

Styrolution ABS India* Neutral 750 - 1,319 1,059 1,116 8.5 9.5 36.0 42.0 20.8 17.9 3.0 2.6 15.4 16.0 1.2 1.2ITD Cementation Neutral 235 - 271 1,323 1,455 12.4 12.4 23.2 27.7 10.1 8.5 0.7 0.6 6.8 7.6 0.7 0.6

Jyothy Laboratories Neutral 170 - 2,738 1,228 1,443 9.0 10.9 3.9 6.4 43.7 26.6 4.3 4.0 10.1 15.6 2.7 2.3

MCX Neutral 1,489 - 7,592 553 624 65.3 66.3 62.5 72.0 23.8 20.7 6.6 5.7 27.5 27.4 10.9 9.2

MRF Accumulate 12,366 12,884 5,245 11,804 12,727 10.4 10.5 1,289.9 1,431.3 9.6 8.6 1.9 1.5 21.3 19.4 0.6 0.5

Page Industries Accumulate 3,410 3,602 3,803 836 1,023 20.2 20.6 105.6 133.4 32.3 25.6 16.4 11.6 59.3 53.2 4.6 3.8

Relaxo Footwears Buy 784 933 941 1,019 1,208 11.0 12.5 47.0 66.7 16.7 11.8 4.1 3.1 28.2 30.1 1.1 0.9

Sintex Industries Buy 66 79 1,974 4,751 5,189 16.3 16.6 13.6 15.8 4.8 4.2 0.6 0.6 12.9 13.2 0.8 0.6

Siyaram Silk Mills Buy 304 366 285 1,043 1,149 12.3 12.9 65.7 73.3 4.6 4.2 0.9 0.8 21.0 19.6 0.5 0.5

S. Kumars Nationwide Neutral 13 - 400 7,134 7,985 19.7 19.4 12.2 14.1 1.1 1.0 0.1 0.1 11.3 11.5 0.6 0.6


Market Outlook

Stock Watch

December 19, 2012


14/15



zOthers

SpiceJet Reduce 47 43 2,262 5,720 6,599 5.3 6.8 3.6 5.4 12.9 8.7 18.7 6.0 - - 0.5 0.4

TAJ GVK Buy 72 108 449 300 319 35.8 36.2 7.9 9.1 9.1 7.9 1.2 1.1 13.9 14.4 1.8 1.6

Tata Sponge Iron Buy 315 384 485 750 803 18.6 18.4 65.4 69.1 4.8 4.6 0.7 0.7 16.5 15.3 0.2 0.1

TVS Srichakra Buy 268 335 205 1,476 1,643 7.0 8.2 32.6 55.9 8.2 4.8 1.3 1.1 16.8 24.8 0.4 0.3

United Spirits Neutral 1,921 - 25,130 10,289 11,421 12.8 12.8 26.0 45.3 73.9 42.4 3.4 3.1 5.8 7.6 2.8 2.5

Vesuvius India Neutral 331 - 672 560 611 16.1 17.0 24.7 28.8 13.4 11.5 2.0 1.8 15.8 16.2 1.1 1.0

Source: Company, Angel Research; Note: *December year end; #September year end; &October year end; Price as on December 18, 2012


Market Outlook

Stock Watch

December 19, 2012


15/15


market outlook 19th dec 2012

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