market ntlligence...class based on our available research. u.s. equity suddenly a bear market...
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John Hancock Investment Management | Market Intelligence
What you’ll find
3
About John Hancock Investment Management
Our multimanager approach 4
Insight that leverages the best of our asset management network 5
U.S. equity: a quality approach for a choppy environment 6
Leading economic indicators continue to form bottoming pattern 7
The earnings outlook isn’t uniform across sectors 8
Focus on higher-quality sectors that can better navigate economic disruptions 9
History suggests stronger forward returns 10
Mid-cap stocks offer an attractive postrecession opportunity 11
Election years have shown better performance when the incumbent runs 12
International equity: tilting toward quality and growth 13
Economic recovery abroad has continued, although pace is slowing in some areas 14
Lowerered developed-market earnings forecasts may be ready to turn 15
EM earnings estimates are showing early signs of bottoming but remain depressed versus the United States 16
A weakening U.S. dollar has historically helped international equities 17
International style is linked to sector weights 18
Fixed income: emphasizing quality 19
Returns on short duration fixed-income strategies are likely to remain low 20
Cash can’t compete with investment-grade bonds as a long-term holding 21
The Fed is buying everything in sight 22
Some parts of the credit market provide an attractive risk/reward profile 23
Emerging-market debt is starting to lose its attractiveness as yields fall 24
Cash on the sidelines has fallen slightly but is still near an all-time high 25
Our top portfolio ideas to consider now 26
Family of funds 27
Our investment strategists 28
John Hancock Investment Management | Market Intelligence About John Hancock Investment Management
ESG funds
Introduced multimanager approach
Managed accounts
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Our multimanager approach
Navigating the challenges of today’s markets requires unique talents and expertise on a global scale. That’s why we’ve spent the past three decades building an unrivaled network of specialized asset managers, backed by some of the most rigorous investment oversight in the industry. The result is a diverse lineup of time-tested investments from one of America’s most trusted brands.
Representative list of asset managers shows managers of stand-alone funds only. All data is as of 6/30/20. All logos are the property of their respective owners.
4
60 proven portfolio teams 99 investment strategies26 elite asset managers
Our team of 200+ professionals who specialize in manager research and oversight vets more than 200 new strategies and holds over 100 in-person oversight meetings with managers annually.
John Hancock Investment Management | Market Intelligence About John Hancock Investment Management
Insight that leverages the best of our asset management network
A natural by-product of our manager research is timely investment insight from across the industry. Our capital markets research team aggregates, analyzes, and weights those views to develop a 12- to 18-month outlook on a range of asset classes, along with a focused collection of what they believe are the most compelling investment ideas for clients today. The result is Market Intelligence.
5
How we formulate our 12- to 18-month outlook How to read our views
We conduct a quantitative assessment of asset
manager, strategist, and broker-dealer views
across 17 asset classes.
We analyze, evaluate, and weight these views in
light of asset manager biases, market fundamentals,
investor sentiment and fund flows, and global
macroeconomic factors.
We implement our asset class views in the context
of a global multi-asset portfolio, highlighting our
most compelling ideas for clients based on our
research and focus on risk management.
BEARISH NEUTRAL BULLISH
Darker shading indicates a greater concentration of views within our network.
A golden caret indicates our current 12- to 18-month outlook for the asset class based on our available research.
U.S. equity: a quality approach for a choppy environmentAfter plunging into bear market territory, then staging an astonishing recovery, U.S. equities may be volatile mid a difficult macro backdrop.
6U.S. equity: a quality approach for a choppy environmentJohn Hancock Investment Management | Market Intelligence
Range of views from our networkDarker shading indicates a greater concentration of views within our network.
BEARISH NEUTRAL BULLISH
U.S. equity
U.S. large cap
U.S. mid cap
U.S. small cap
U.S. growth
U.S. value
What’s inside
� Leading economic indicators continue to form bottoming pattern
� The earnings downturn isn’t uniform across sectors
� Focus on higher-quality sectors that can better navigate economic disruptions
� History suggests stronger forward returns
� Mid-cap stocks offer an attractive postrecession opportunity
� Election years have shown better performance when the incumbent runs
Our position
Our 12–18 month view: SLIGHTLY BULLISH
Changes to network views: The second quarter saw a continued
preference for U.S. over non-U.S. equities. Within the domestic market, we saw more
positive views on small- and mid-cap equities emerge, with mid-cap stocks now the
largest overweight within global equities across the network.
In mid-2019, we upgraded U.S. large- and mid-cap equity from neutral to slightly bullish, and in Q1 2020 we upgraded U.S. small-cap equity from slightly bearish to neutral. We see mid-cap stocks as the best opportunity for offense within U.S. equities. We’ve been bullish on quality since the third quarter of 2018 and still prefer tilting portfolios to companies with better fundamentals, including higher return on equity and margins.
U.S. equity: a quality approach for a choppy environmentJohn Hancock Investment Management | Market Intelligence
Darker shading indicates a greater concentration of views within our network.
Recessions
-25
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-5
0
5
10
15%
20202018201620142012201020082006200420022000199819961994199219901988198619841982198019781976197419721970
Year-over-year change in the Composite Index of Leading Indicators
“The June increase in the LEI reflects improvements brought about by the U.S. economy’s
reopening, but broader conditions and a resurgence of new COVID-19 cases suggest the
economy will remain in recession territory in the near term.”
Leading economic indicators continue to form bottoming pattern
Source: The Conference Board, as of 6/30/20. The Composite Index of Leading Indicators (LEI) is an index published monthly by The Conference Board, used to predict the direction of the economy’s movements in the months to come. The index is made up of 10 economic components whose changes tend to precede changes in the overall economy. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
U.S. equity
BEARISH NEUTRAL BULLISH= OUR 12–18 MONTH VIEW
Composite Index of Leading Indicators (ranked by weighting in the index)
Weekly manufacturing hours worked Leading Credit Index
ISM Index of New Orders New orders of nondefense capital goods
Consumer expectations Stock prices
Yield spread Weekly unemployment claims
New orders of consumer goods and materials Building permits
The year-over-year LEI growth rate improved to -8.60% in June, compared with -10.39% in May. Across the underlying components, 7 of the 10 had positive readings on a month-over-month basis.
7
U.S. equity: a quality approach for a choppy environmentJohn Hancock Investment Management | Market Intelligence
100
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$200
7/207/197/187/177/167/151,500
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S&P 500 Index EPS forecast (left axis)
S&P 500 Index (right axis)
Darker shading indicates a greater concentration of views within our network.
8
The earnings outlook isn’t uniform across sectors
Stocks are pricing in a substantial earnings recovery
Source: FactSet, as of 7/31/20. The S&P 500 Index tracks the performance of 500 of the largest publicly traded companies in the United States. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. Earnings per share (EPS) is a measure of how much profit a company has generated calculated by dividing the company’s net income by its total number of outstanding shares. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
“With the market now arguably priced for perfection amid a very uncertain earnings
backdrop, quality is a trait that we continue to emphasize.”
U.S. equity
BEARISH NEUTRAL BULLISH= OUR 12–18 MONTH VIEW
Earnings estimates continued to trend higher in July after bottoming in May.
EPS growth estimates year over year (%)
2020 2021
Healthcare 4.20 13.35
Information technology 3.35 14.18
Utilities 0.74 5.49
Consumer staples -0.61 7.89
Real estate -6.01 7.94
Communication services -12.17 22.10
S&P 500 Index -18.99 26.77
Materials -20.08 28.43
Financials -34.87 31.46
Consumer discretionary -46.44 83.64
Industrials -51.24 93.82
Energy -100.49 —
U.S. equity: a quality approach for a choppy environmentJohn Hancock Investment Management | Market Intelligence 9
Darker shading indicates a greater concentration of views within our network.
Focus on higher-quality sectors that can better navigate economic disruptions
“Investors should position with a moderately pro-growth stance, emphasizing
high-quality cyclical exposure, balanced by some defensiveness.”
Sectors for offense
Attractive margins and potential for upside capture
Sectors for defense
Defensive characteristics and potential to limit downside capture
Source: FactSet, as of 6/30/20. The S&P 500 Index tracks the performance of 500 of the largest publicly traded companies in the United States. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
A barbell approach to U.S. sectors: two for offense and two for defense
Consumer staples
Return on equity 21.82%
Gross margin 32.08%
Communication services
Return on equity 15.02%
Gross margin 46.13%
Healthcare
Return on equity 29.04%
Gross margin 28.98%
Technology
Return on equity 30.04%
Gross margin 47.66%
S&P 500 Index Return on equity: 15.58% Gross margin: 31.63%
S&P 500 Index
Market capitalization
27.46% Technology
14.63% Healthcare
2.84% Real estate
6.97% Consumer staples
2.52% Materials 2.83% Energy
3.07% Utilities
7.99% Industrials
10.08% Financials
10.78% Communication services
10.83% Consumer discretionary
U.S. equity
BEARISH NEUTRAL BULLISH= OUR 12–18 MONTH VIEW
U.S. equity: a quality approach for a choppy environmentJohn Hancock Investment Management | Market Intelligence
Darker shading indicates a greater concentration of views within our network.
History suggests stronger forward returns
Source: FactSet, as of 6/30/20. The last two market cycle peaks occurred in October 2007 and March 2000. The S&P 500 Index tracks the performance of 500 of the largest publicly traded companies in the United States. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. Drawdown is a measure of market declines from a peak to a subsequent trough. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
10
“The 2009 blueprint continues to show us how to profit from a uniquely
bullish backdrop that blends a textbook cyclical cross-asset bottom with
a liquidity-fueled speculative secular surge in growth.”
Historically, a 30% or greater decline in the S&P 500 Index has led to strong near- and medium-term returns
U.S. equity
BEARISH NEUTRAL BULLISH= OUR 12–18 MONTH VIEW
Peak Trough Drawdown(%)
1-yr from trough (%)
3-yr from trough (%)
5-yr from trough (%)
10/9/07 3/9/09 -56.77 68.24 102.63 177.60
3/24/00 10/9/02 -49.15 33.73 53.96 101.50
8/25/87 12/4/87 -33.51 21.39 45.74 92.95
1/11/73 10/3/74 -48.20 38.01 55.33 75.96
11/29/68 5/26/70 -36.06 43.73 55.78 30.73
Cumulative averages -44.74 41.02 62.69 95.75
Annualized averages 41.02 17.61 14.38
-50
0
50
100
150
200%
5 years4 years3 years2 years1 year
n 03/9/09–3/7/14 n 10/9/02–10/9/07 n 12/4/87–12/4/92
n 10/3/74–10/3/79 n 5/26/70–5/26/75
U.S. equity: a quality approach for a choppy environmentJohn Hancock Investment Management | Market Intelligence
-25
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20202018 20192016 2017201520142013201220112010200920082007200620052004200320022001200019991998199719961995
Darker shading indicates a greater concentration of views within our network.
Rolling 52-week excess return of the Russell Midcap Index vs. the S&P 500 Index (%)
Mid-cap stocks offer an attractive postrecession opportunity
11
“Mid-cap stocks often combine the growth potential of a young firm with the
financial stability of a company that has survived beyond its early years.”
Source: FactSet, as of 7/31/20. The S&P 500 Index tracks the performance of 500 of the largest publicly traded companies in the United States. The Russell Midcap Index tracks the performance of approximately 800 publicly traded midcap companies in the United States. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
U.S. mid cap
BEARISH NEUTRAL BULLISH= OUR 12–18 MONTH VIEW
n Mid-cap outperformance exiting recession n Recession
After the largest underperformance vs. the S&P 500 Index since 1998, U.S. mid caps may bounce back coming out of this recessionary period.
U.S. equity: a quality approach for a choppy environmentJohn Hancock Investment Management | Market Intelligence
Darker shading indicates a greater concentration of views within our network.
DemocratRepublicanDemocratRepublicanDemocratRepublican
6.34%
10.48%
12.95%
9.38%
4.69%
13.14%
January February March April May June July August September October November December
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-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
January February March April May June July August September October November December
Markets during election years since 1932 (% return)
“A robust stimulus is in the best interest of the Trump administration.”
Election years have shown better performance when the incumbent runs
Source: FactSet, as of 6/30/20. The S&P 500 Index tracks the performance of 500 of the largest publicly traded companies in the United States. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
12
U.S. equity
BEARISH NEUTRAL BULLISH= OUR 12–18 MONTH VIEW
Across various political configurations, returns show a tight range, historically.
S&P 500 Index average price return by president
Sweep president and Congress
Divided president and Congress
Incumbent candidates may implement policies that benefit markets and/or the economy in an election year.
n S&P 500 Index incumbent running n S&P 500 Index incumbent not running
International equity: tilting toward quality and growthThe economic data has bottomed overseas, and an outright defensive position is no longer warranted; quality and growth are best positioned for an uneven recovery.
International equity: tilting toward quality and growthJohn Hancock Investment Management | Market Intelligence
Range of views from our networkDarker shading indicates a greater concentration of views within our network.
BEARISH NEUTRAL BULLISH
International equity
European equity
Japanese equity
Emerging-market equity
Our position
Our 12–18 month view: SLIGHTLY BEARISH
What’s inside
� Economic recovery abroad has continued, though pace is slowing in some areas
� Lowered developed-market earnings forecasts may be ready to turn
� EM earnings estimates are showing early signs of bottoming but remain depressed vs. the U.S.
� Weakening US dollar has historically helped international equities
� International style is linked to sector weightsChanges to network views: During the second quarter, the consensus
view on non-U.S. equities remained neutral, although we saw some members of our
network downgrade their views on Europe, Japan, and emerging-market equities.
In mid-2019, we downgraded European and emerging-market equities from neutral to slightly bearish. In Q1 2020, we returned emerging-market equities to neutral, largely due to improving economic data from China. This quarter, we removed our overweight in outright defensive sectors such as utilities in favor of a quality-growth bias toward a combination of participation and protection.
13
International equity: tilting toward quality and growthJohn Hancock Investment Management | Market Intelligence
Darker shading indicates a greater concentration of views within our network.
Source: Markit, World Bank, FactSet, as of 7/31/20. The Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) is an indicator of the economic health of the manufacturing sector based on five major indicators: new orders, inventory levels, production, supplier deliveries, and the employment environment. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
14
Economic recovery abroad has continued, although pace is slowing in some areas
Economic growth overseas has been bouncing back from the spring collapse (PMI)
European equity
BEARISH NEUTRAL BULLISH
= OUR 12–18 MONTH VIEW
Expa
nsio
nary
Cont
ract
iona
ry
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6/20 7/203/2012/199/196/193/1912/189/186/183/1812/179/176/173/1712/169/166/163/1612/159/15
52.4 France51.9 Italy
45.2 Japan
53.5 Spain
52.8 China
51.0 Germany
53.3 U.K.
“The level of economic activity reached its nadir in early April in most DMs
and has been recovering ever since as restrictions have been lifted.”
The U.S. PMI was 50.9 in July—lower than eurozone PMI for the first time since February.
International equity: tilting toward quality and growthJohn Hancock Investment Management | Market Intelligence
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MSCI EAFE Index EPS forecast, next 12 months (left axis)
MSCI EAFE Index price, USD (right axis)
Darker shading indicates a greater concentration of views within our network.
15
Lowered developed-market earnings forecasts may be ready to turn
Source: FactSet, as of 7/31/20. Earnings per share (EPS) is a measure of how much profit a company has generated calculated by dividing the company’s net income by its total number of outstanding shares. The MSCI Europe, Australasia, and Far East (EAFE) Index tracks the performance of publicly traded large- and mid-cap stocks of companies in those regions. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. USD refers to U.S. dollars. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Earnings growth estimates have rolled over—but may have started to bottom
Unlike in the United States, earnings estimates continued to fall in July but showed a turnaround at month end and may be starting to bottom.
International equity
BEARISH NEUTRAL BULLISH= OUR 12–18 MONTH VIEW
“More cyclical markets are more vulnerable to negative earnings surprises, although they
will also potentially have more earnings upside when economic conditions improve.”
EPS growth estimates year over year (%)
2020 2021
Communication services 3.37 17.70
Information technology 1.97 24.87
Healthcare 1.94 15.39
Utilities -1.57 9.12
Consumer staples -16.26 22.99
Real estate -19.49 9.29
MSCI EAFE Index -31.99 40.59
Materials -36.58 108.02
Financials -37.92 29.44
Industrials -45.59 67.78
Consumer discretionary -56.45 112.70
Energy -76.70 190.29
International equity: tilting toward quality and growthJohn Hancock Investment Management | Market Intelligence
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MSCI EM Index forward EPS (right axis)
MSCI EM Index (left axis)
20212020
-10.78
27.29
EM prices have bounced, but earnings estimates have yet to followMSCI EM Index— earnings growth estimates (%)
Darker shading indicates a greater concentration of views within our network.
16
EM earnings estimates are showing early signs of bottoming but remain depressed versus the United States
Emerging-market equity
BEARISH NEUTRAL BULLISH= OUR 12–18 MONTH VIEW
“We think that EM financial markets will remain under pressure until there is clear
evidence that the spread of the coronavirus is being brought under control.”
Source: FactSet, as of 7/31/20. Earnings per share (EPS) is a measure of how much profit a company has generated calculated by dividing the company’s net income by its total number of outstanding shares. The MSCI Emerging Markets (EM) Index tracks the performance of publicly traded large- and mid-cap emerging-market stocks. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
International equity: tilting toward quality and growthJohn Hancock Investment Management | Market Intelligence
Darker shading indicates a greater concentration of views within our network.
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2020201520102005200019951990198519801975
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7/207/197/187/177/16
17
Source: FactSet, 7/31/20. The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) is a measure of the value of the U.S. dollar (USD) relative to the value of a basket of currencies of the majority of the United States’ most significant trading partners. International equities are represented by the MSCI Europe, Australasia, and Far East (EAFE) Index, which tracks the performance of publicly traded large- and mid-cap stocks of companies in those regions. U.S. equities are represented by the S&P 500 Index, which tracks the performance of 500 of the largest publicly traded companies in the United States. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
A weakening U.S. dollar has historically helped international equities
International stocks have been comparatively weak when the USD rises—and comparatively strong when it falls
“A weaker dollar would help lift commodity prices and the
more cyclical sectors of the stock market.”
n DXY 50-day moving average n DXY daily
Cumulative returns (%)
MSCI EAFE Index 49.38 436.83 13.79 103.49 29.81
S&P 500 Index 106.31 341.69 130.52 29.00 206.57
$
$
International equity
BEARISH NEUTRAL BULLISH= OUR 12–18 MONTH VIEW
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2020201520102005200019951990198519801975
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7/207/197/187/177/16
The U.S. dollar has broken down to levels not seen for over two years.
International equity: tilting toward quality and growthJohn Hancock Investment Management | Market Intelligence
Darker shading indicates a greater concentration of views within our network.
International style is linked to sector weights
18
“We think the post-COVID-19 world will include aggressive monetary stimulus, low
growth, low rates, and low inflation. Against this backdrop, we expect growth
equities could provide attractive returns globally over the next year.”
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
EnergyUtilitiesReal estate
Communicationservices
MaterialsFinancialsConsumerdiscretionary
Informationtechnology
IndustrialsConsumerstaples
Healthcare
International large-cap growth, blend, and value weights by sector (%)
n MSCI EAFE Growth Index n MSCI EAFE Blend Index n MSCI EAFE Value Index
In a COVID-19 world, we prefer more growth- and quality-oriented healthcare, consumer staples, industrials, technology, and consumer discretionary.
International equity
BEARISH NEUTRAL BULLISH= OUR 12–18 MONTH VIEW
Source: FactSet, as of 6/30/20. The MSCI Europe, Australasia, and Far East (EAFE) Index tracks the performance of publicly traded large- and mid-cap stocks of companies in those regions. The MSCI EAFE Growth Index tracks the performance of publicly traded growth-oriented large- and mid-cap stocks of companies in those regions. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Fixed income: emphasizing quality Investment-grade corporate and government bonds may outpace lower-rated issues.
Fixed income: emphasizing qualityJohn Hancock Investment Management | Market Intelligence
Range of views from our networkDarker shading indicates a greater concentration of views within our network.
BEARISH NEUTRAL BULLISH
Fixed income
U.S. government
Mortgage-backed securities
U.S. investment grade
U.S. high yield
Emerging-market debt
International developed debt
Our position
Our 12–18 month view: NEUTRAL
What’s inside
� Returns on short duration fixed-income strategies are likely to remain low
� Cash can’t compete with investment-grade bonds as a long-term holding
� The Fed is buying everything in sight
� Some parts of the credit market provide an attractive risk/reward profile
� Emerging-market debt is starting to lose its attractiveness as yields fall
� Cash on the sidelines has fallen slightly but is still near an all-time high
Changes to network views: Several firms changed their outlook for
U.S. Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities to neutral from slightly positive.
The investment-grade corporate category remains the highest-conviction overweight
across our network.
In early 2019, we upgraded our fixed-income view from slightly bearish to neutral, where it remains amid a challenging environment for global growth. In Q1, we increased quality further by upgrading U.S. Treasuries from neutral to slightly positive and further increasing our overweight in mortgage-backed securities. This quarter, we’ve continued increasing quality by moving emerging-market debt to slightly negative from neutral.
19
Fixed income: emphasizing qualityJohn Hancock Investment Management | Market Intelligence
Darker shading indicates a greater concentration of views within our network.
Returns on short duration fixed-income strategies are likely to remain low
20
Fed funds target (upper bound)
Source: U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed), Chicago Fed, as of 7/31/20. Interest-rate projections are based on the median for the federal funds rate projections of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), the body responsible for setting the federal funds rate, which meets eight times a year. FOMC members anonymously report interest-rate projections four times a year, in March, June, September, and December. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
“A sustained rise in bond yields can only be caused by a reflationary environment.”
Fixed income
BEARISH NEUTRAL BULLISH
= OUR 12–18 MONTH VIEW
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7%
7/207/187/167/147/127/107/087/067/047/027/00
U.S. Treasury yield curve (%)
1 month 0.10%
2 month 0.10%
3 month 0.10%
6 month 0.11%
1 year 0.12%
2 year 0.10%
3 year 0.11%
5 year 0.21%
7 year 0.39%
10 year 0.54%
20 year 0.98%
30 year 1.20%
The fed funds rate is back to zero, and forward guidance suggests that it will remain there until at least 2022.
Fixed income: emphasizing qualityJohn Hancock Investment Management | Market Intelligence
Total returns (%)
0
10
20
Year 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Cash (%) 6.38 5.45 5.64 5.52 4.80 6.38 4.84 2.02 1.21 1.27 3.10 4.84 5.27 2.92 0.37 0.24 0.19 0.15 0.12 0.09 0.14 0.51 0.86 1.92 2.41 0.81
Bonds (%) 18.47 3.63 9.65 8.69 -0.82 11.63 8.44 10.25 4.10 4.34 2.43 4.33 6.97 5.24 5.93 6.54 7.84 4.21 -2.02 5.97 0.55 2.65 3.54 0.01 8.72 6.14
Darker shading indicates a greater concentration of views within our network.
Source: FactSet, as of 6/30/20. Cash is represented by the Bloomberg Barclays U.S. Short Treasury 3–6 Month Index, which tracks U.S. Treasury bills, notes, and bonds with less than a year to maturity. Bonds are represented by the Bloomberg Barclays U.S. Aggregate Bond Index, which tracks the performance of U.S. investment-grade bonds in government, asset-backed, and corporate debt markets. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
21
Cash can’t compete with investment-grade bonds as a long-term holding
Bonds have outperformed cash 76% of the time since 1995
“Overall, we expect inflation to continue to undershoot central banks’ targets for a sustained
period, keeping both policy rates and government bond yields at very low levels.”
Fixed income
BEARISH NEUTRAL BULLISH
= OUR 12–18 MONTH VIEW
n Cash n Bonds n Years when bonds outperformed cash
After years in which cash outperformed bonds, bonds went on to outperform cash for several years.
Fixed income: emphasizing qualityJohn Hancock Investment Management | Market Intelligence
Darker shading indicates a greater concentration of views within our network.
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7/204/202/2012/1910/198/196/194/192/1912/1810/188/186/184/182/18
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The Fed is buying everything in sight
“Overall, we expect inflation to continue to undershoot central banks’ targets for a sustained
period, keeping both policy rates and government bond yields at very low levels.”
Fed assets have spiked (in trillions)
Source: U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed), FactSet, 7/31/20. MBS refers to mortgage-backed securities; CMBS refers to commercial mortgage-backed securities.
The Fed’s balance sheet is still near an all-time record, although it shrank marginally in July.
Fixed income
BEARISH NEUTRAL BULLISH
= OUR 12–18 MONTH VIEW
Historic monetary stimulus, including:
• $700B+ in purchases of U.S. Treasury securities, MBS, CMBS, and agency MBS
• $300B in new financing to support the flow of credit to employers, consumers, and businesses
• Establishment of primary and secondary market corporate credit facilities to provide liquidity for new and outstanding corporate bonds
• Establishment of Term Asset-Backed Securities Loan Facility to support credit to consumers and businesses
• Expanded Money Market Mutual Fund Liquidity Facility to facilitate the flow of credit to municipalities
• Expanded the Commercial Paper Funding Facility to facilitate the flow of credit to municipalities
• Slashed policy rate to 0%
Fixed income: emphasizing qualityJohn Hancock Investment Management | Market Intelligence
Darker shading indicates a greater concentration of views within our network.
“High-yield spreads appear too tight if we ignore the impact of the Fed’s emergency
lending facilities and consider only the fundamental credit backdrop.”
23
Some parts of the credit market provide an attractive risk/reward profile
U.S. investment grade
BEARISH NEUTRAL BULLISH
= OUR 12–18 MONTH VIEW
The Fed’s March 23 announcement of extraordinary measures to combat potential liquidity problems caused corporate bond spreads to narrow
Rating (Bloomberg Barclays indexes)
YtW (%)
Agg corporate, “AAA” 1.45
Agg corporate, “AA” 1.31
Agg corporate, “A” 1.50
Agg corporate, “BAA” 2.27
Agg Credit–Corporate HY, “BA” 3.84
Agg Credit–Corporate HY, “B” 5.55
Agg Credit–Corporate HY, “CAA” 10.650
5
10
15
20
25
30%
35
7/206/196/186/176/166/156/146/136/126/116/106/096/086/076/066/05
n Agg, “CAA” (YtW) n Agg, “B” (YtW) n Agg, “BA” (YtW)
Source: FactSet, as of 7/31/20. The Bloomberg Barclays U.S. Aggregate (Agg) Bond Index tracks the performance of U.S. investment-grade bonds in government, asset-backed, and corporate debt markets. The Agg Credit Index is a broad-based benchmark that tracks the investment-grade, U.S. dollar-denominated, fixed-rate, taxable corporate bond market. The Agg Credit–Corporate High Yield (HY) Index is a broad-based benchmark that tracks the high-yield, U.S. dollar-denominated, fixed-rate, taxable corporate bond market. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. Yield to worst (YtW) is the lowest potential yield calculated by taking into account an issue’s optionality, such as prepayments or calls. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
With high-quality corporate bonds providing exceptionally low yields, credit is attractive, but investors must be selective in taking risk, focusing on what the Fed is buying.
Fixed income: emphasizing qualityJohn Hancock Investment Management | Market Intelligence
RUSSIA
5.9%
AUSTRALIA
0.8%
JAPAN
0.0%
NEW ZEALAND
0.7%
SINGAPORE
0.8%
SOUTH KOREA
1.3%
PHILIPPINES
3.7%MALAYSIA
2.6%
INDONESIA
7.1%
CHINA
3.1%
INDIA
5.8%
U.K.
0.1%
ITALY
1.0%
GERMANY
-0.5%
SWITZERLAND
-0.5%
MEXICO
5.9% COLOMBIA
5.9%
BRAZIL
6.7%PERU
4.0%
U.S.
0.5%
CANADA
0.5%HUNGARY
2.1%
POLAND
1.2%
Europe emerging
Latin America emerging
Asia emerging
Europe developed
North America developed
Asia developed
10-year government bond yields
Darker shading indicates a greater concentration of views within our network.
24
Emerging-market debt is starting to lose its relative attractiveness as yields fall
10-year government bond yields
Emerging-market debt
BEARISH NEUTRAL BULLISH
= OUR 12–18 MONTH VIEW
“When you look at the high-quality situations in mainstream bond markets,
there aren’t a lot to grab on to, so you have to look at other opportunities.”
Source: FactSet, as of 7/31/20. Foreign investing, especially in emerging markets, has additional risks, such as currency and market volatility and political and social instability. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Fixed income: emphasizing qualityJohn Hancock Investment Management | Market Intelligence
60/40 portfoliosS&P 500 Index
8.70%
14.97%
60/40 portfoliosS&P 500 Index
6.32%6.29%
1
2
3
4
5
Trill
ions
6/205/195/185/175/165/155/145/135/125/115/105/095/085/075/065/055/045/035/025/015/00
Money market assets have soared in the pandemic A 60/40 portfolio has provided long-term investors with more attractive return per unit of risk
20-year returns
20-year standard deviation
Source: FactSet, as of 6/30/20. The S&P 500 Index tracks the performance of 500 of the largest publicly traded companies in the United States. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Darker shading indicates a greater concentration of views within our network.
Cash on the sidelines has fallen slightly but is still near an all-time high
25
“If equity markets stabilize, a balanced portfolio allows for participation in up markets
and, if volatility continues, the portfolio’s bond allocation may act as a buffer.”
Fixed income
BEARISH NEUTRAL BULLISH
= OUR 12–18 MONTH VIEW
Cash balances remain near highs while interest rates have plummeted, leaving very low return potential.
John Hancock Investment Management | Market Intelligence Our top portfolio ideas to consider now 26
Our top portfolio ideas to consider now
U.S. quality The U.S. equity market exhibits better fundamentals relative to non-U.S. equities,
as measured by return on equity and sector composition. Embracing quality allows
investors the chance to both participate and protect.
U.S. mid caps U.S. mid caps benefit from increased fiscal stimulus and have shown the ability to bounce back
out of recessions. Since the market low in March, mid-cap stocks have outpaced large- and
small-cap stocks.
International quality growth
The U.S. dollar may be entering a weakening trend, which could result in a currency tailwind
for foreign stocks. However, because the earnings growth outlook remains challenged overseas,
we advocate tilting toward quality growth sectors.
U.S. investment-grade corporates
Investment-grade corporate bonds offer an attractive risk/reward profile. Support from the
Fed’s current bond-buying programs provides an additional tailwind.
John Hancock Investment Management | Market Intelligence
Family of funds As of June 30, 2020
1 As of 3/23/18, the fund is closed to new investors. 2 Prior to 4/17/20, the fund was named John Hancock Income Allocation Fund. Not all funds are available for sale at all firms. The funds listed above have associated risks. John Hancock Multifactor ETF shares are bought and sold at market price (not NAV), and are not individually redeemed from the fund. Brokerage commissions will reduce returns. John Hancock ETFs are distributed by Foreside Fund Services, LLC in the United States, and are subadvised by Dimensional Fund Advisors LP in all markets. Foreside is not affiliated with John Hancock Investment Management Distributors LLC or Dimensional Fund Advisors LP. Dimensional Fund Advisors LP receives compensation from John Hancock in connection with licensing rights to the John Hancock Dimensional indexes. Dimensional Fund Advisors LP does not sponsor, endorse, or sell, and makes no representation as to the advisability of investing in, John Hancock Multifactor ETFs.
Managed by Morningstar category A C I R6
U.S.
EQ
UIT
Y
Blue Chip Growth T. Rowe Price Large growth JBGAX JBGCX
Classic Value Pzena Large value PZFVX JCVCX JCVIX JCVWX
Disciplined Value Boston Partners Large value JVLAX JVLCX JVLIX JDVWX
Disciplined Value Mid Cap Boston Partners Mid-cap value JVMAX JVMCX JVMIX JVMRX
Equity Income T. Rowe Price Large value JHEIX JHERX
Financial Industries Manulife IM Financial FIDAX FIDCX JFIFX JFDRX
Fundamental All Cap Core Manulife IM Large growth JFCAX JFCCX JFCIX JFAIX
Fundamental Large Cap Core Manulife IM Large blend TAGRX JHLVX JLVIX JLCWX
New Opportunities GWK Small blend JASOX JBSOX JHSOX JWSOX
Regional Bank Manulife IM Financial FRBAX FRBCX JRBFX JRGRX
Small Cap Core Manulife IM Small blend JCCAX JCCIX JORSX
Small Cap Growth Redwood Small growth JSJAX JSJCX JSJIX JSJFX
Small Cap Value Wellington Small blend JSCAX JSCBX JSCCX
U.S. Global Leaders Growth SGA Large growth USGLX USLCX USLIX UGLSX
U.S. Quality Growth Wellington Large growth JSGAX JSGCX JSGIX JSGTX
INTE
RNAT
ION
AL
EQU
ITY
Disciplined Value International Boston Partners Foreign large blend JDIBX JDICX JDVIX JDIUX
Emerging Markets Dimensional Diversified emerging markets JEVAX JEVCX JEVIX JEVRX
Emerging Markets Equity Manulife IM Diversified emerging markets JEMQX JEMZX JEMMX JEMGX
Fundamental Global Franchise Manulife IM World large stock JFGAX JFGIX JFGFX
Global Equity Manulife IM World large stock JHGEX JGECX JGEFX JGEMX
Global Shareholder Yield Epoch World large stock JGYAX JGYCX JGYIX JGRSX
Global Thematic Opportunities Pictet World large stock JTKAX JTKCX JTKIX JTKRX
International Dynamic Growth Axiom Foreign large growth JIJAX JIJCX JIJIX JIJRX
International Growth1 Wellington Foreign large growth GOIGX GONCX GOGIX JIGTX
International Small Company Dimensional Foreign small/mid blend JISAX JISDX JSCIX JHSMX
FIXE
D IN
COM
E
Bond Manulife IM Intermediate core-plus bond JHNBX JHCBX JHBIX JHBSX
California Tax-Free Income Manulife IM Muni California long TACAX TCCAX JCAFX JCSRX
Emerging Markets Debt Manulife IM Emerging markets bond JMKAX JMKCX JMKIX JEMIX
Floating Rate Income Bain Bank loan JFIAX JFIGX JFIIX JFIRX
Government Income Manulife IM Intermediate government JHGIX TCGIX JGIFX JTSRX
High Yield Manulife IM High yield bond JHHBX JHYCX JYHIX JFHYX
High Yield Municipal Bond Manulife IM High yield muni JHTFX JCTFX JHYMX JCTRX
Income Manulife IM Multisector bond JHFIX JSTCX JSTIX JSNWX
Investment Grade Bond Manulife IM Intermediate core bond TAUSX TCUSX TIUSX JIGEX
Money Market Manulife IM Taxable money market JHMXX JMCXX
Short Duration Bond Manulife IM Short-term bond JSNAX JSNCX JSNIX JSNRX
Short Duration Credit Opportunities Stone Harbor Multisector bond JMBAX JMBCX JMBIX JSDEX
Strategic Income Opportunities Manulife IM Multisector bond JIPAX JIPCX JIPIX JIPRX
Tax-Free Bond Manulife IM Muni national intermediate TAMBX TBMBX JTBDX JTMRX
Managed by Morningstar category A C I R6
ALT
ERN
ATIV
E
Absolute Return Currency First Quadrant Multicurrency JCUAX JCUCX JCUIX JCURX
Alternative Asset Allocation Manulife IM Multialternative JAAAX JAACX JAAIX JAARX
Alternative Risk Premia Unigestion Multialternative JRPSX
Diversified Macro Graham Capital Multialternative JDJAX JDJCX JDJIX JDJRX
Infrastructure Wellington Infrastructure JEEBX JEEFX JEEIX JEEDX
Multi-Asset Absolute Return Nordea Multialternative JHAAX JHACX JHAIX JHASX
Seaport Long/Short Wellington Long/short equity JSFBX JSFTX JSFDX JSFRX
ASS
ET A
LLO
C Balanced Fund Manulife IM Allocation—50% to 70% equity SVBAX SVBCX SVBIX JBAWX
Multi-Asset High Income2 Manulife IM Allocation—15% to 30% equity JIAFX JIAGX JIAIX JIASX
Multimanager Lifestyle Portfolios Manulife IM
TARG
ET D
ATE Multi-Index Lifetime Portfolios Manulife IM
Multi-Index Preservation Portfolios Manulife IM
Multimanager Lifetime Portfolios Manulife IM
ESG
ESG All Cap Core Trillium Large growth JHKAX JHKCX JHKIX JHKRX
ESG Core Bond Breckinridge Intermediate-term bond JBOAX JBOIX JBORX
ESG International Equity Boston Common Foreign large growth JTQAX JTQIX JTQRX
ESG Large Cap Core Trillium Large blend JHJAX JHJCX JHJIX JHJRX
Index provider Morningstar category Ticker
ETF
John Hancock Multifactor Consumer Discretionary ETF Dimensional Consumer cyclical JHMC
John Hancock Multifactor Consumer Staples ETF Dimensional Consumer defensive JHMS
John Hancock Multifactor Developed International ETF Dimensional Foreign large blend JHMD
John Hancock Multifactor Emerging Markets ETF Dimensional Diversified emerging markets JHEM
John Hancock Multifactor Energy ETF Dimensional Equity energy JHME
John Hancock Multifactor Financials ETF Dimensional Financial JHMF
John Hancock Multifactor Healthcare ETF Dimensional Health JHMH
John Hancock Multifactor Industrials ETF Dimensional Industrials JHMI
John Hancock Multifactor Large Cap ETF Dimensional Large blend JHML
John Hancock Multifactor Materials ETF Dimensional Natural resources JHMA
John Hancock Multifactor Media and Communications ETF Dimensional Communication JHCS
John Hancock Multifactor Mid Cap ETF Dimensional Mid-cap blend JHMM
John Hancock Multifactor Small Cap ETF Dimensional Small blend JHSC
John Hancock Multifactor Technology ETF Dimensional Technology JHMT
John Hancock Multifactor Utilities ETF Dimensional Utilities JHMU
27
John Hancock Investment Management | Market Intelligence Our investment strategists 28
Our investment strategists
As co-chief investment strategists, Emily and Matt are responsible for developing and delivering timely market and economic insight to financial professionals and institutional investors across the country. Together, they lead the development of John Hancock Investment Management’s flagship quarterly market outlook, Market Intelligence. In doing so, they oversee the firm’s investment committee, which establishes asset allocation views by combining insight from the firm’s global network of asset managers, independent research firms, broker-dealers, and banks with top-down fundamental and macro analysis. They’re featured regularly on CNBC and Bloomberg TV and are quoted frequently in the financial press.
Emily has over 20 years of industry experience. She joined the company’s investments division in 2004 and has held several positions in product management, competitive intelligence, and market and industry research. Prior to joining John Hancock, she held roles at GMO and the Boston Stock Exchange. Emily earned an M.B.A. from Boston College and a B.B.A. from James Madison University, and holds the Certified Investment Management Analyst designation.
Matt has over 15 years of industry experience. Prior to joining the company’s investments division in 2014, he was a manager due diligence analyst at LPL Financial Research, where he was responsible for manager and asset allocation changes related to the firm’s recommended list and discretionary models. Matt earned a B.S. in Finance from Elon University and an M.B.A. from Babson College, and holds the Charter Financial Analyst designation.
Emily R. Roland, CIMACo-Chief Investment Strategist
Matthew D. Miskin, CFACo-Chief Investment Strategist
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