Market disruptions due to ASF in Asia and cross-border challenges

November 2019

Outline

• Market disruptions due to ASF

• China and its global impact

• South-East Asia

• Cross-border challenges

• ASF regional collaborative framework

8

13

18

23

28

33

38

China's live domestic pig prices by province (Yuan/Kg)

August 3rdFirst ASF outbreak reported

Market disruptions in China

2 Y/kg

*13

.3 Y

/kg

* As of 25 October 2019

2019: +178%

Sources: MARA, China Pig Network

Market disruptions in China - spillovers

Changes in prices of meat products in China (2019; Yuan/Kg)

49.9 25.0

As of 3rd week of Oct 2019

79.9 77.2

+110% +23% +17% +13%

+1%

Source: MARA

-6%13.0

Market disruptions in China - spillovers

Re-stocking costs on the rise (YoY)

+173%

+77%

* As of 1st week of October Source: MARA

Market disruptions in China – Global impactsUS pork exports into China

2019

20185-year mean

Brazil pork exports into China2017: 48 892 tons2018: 154 500 tons (+ 216%)2019 (Jan-Aug): + 48%

1.00

1.40

1.80

2.20

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,000

Pri

ce (

eur/

Kg)

Mo

nth

ly e

xpo

rts

(to

ns

of

po

rk)

EU28 pork exports into China

Price 2019

Price 2018

Exports 2019

Exports 2018

Source: Reuters, USDA, USMEF, EUROSTAT

Mexico 33%

China 20%

Japan 16%

Canada 9%

C. America 7%

ROK 7%

Others 8%

US pork exports 2017

Market disruptions - SEA

Note 1: Pork prices were obtained in collaboration with Vet Products GroupNote 2: Darker areas represent regions with high pig density

Note 3: Prices are in USD/Kg, using the Aug-2019 exchange rate

January 2019

August 2019

Market disruptions - SEA

January 2019

August 2019

30 October 2019. “The price

of pigs in Vietnam has slid

after two weeks of

continuous increase. The

cause of the price reduction

is the timely move by the

Ministry of Agriculture to

clamp down on pig

exports to China.”

End Oct 2019

USD/Kg

+ 94%

+ 62%

+ 31%

Cross-border challenges - Connectivity

Official and unofficial movements(piglets and adult pigs)

Red – unofficialGreen – official

Black – official & unofficial

Cross-border challenges - Smuggling

Cross-border challenges – How to engage all stakeholders?