Mark Hollands, Principal, ITR

Charting a course for the next five years . . .

Mapping the Future of I.T.

• Differing industry messages– On-Demand – Adaptive– Real-Time – Organic . . . Agile & so on . . .

– Now ILM and DLM • Nightmare of tracking and purging data• Years to complete the journey

• All process-driven• But CIOs turned off by ‘spin’

Next Big Thing

• Technology v. Alignment– Business cases– Process v. scope-creep– Service-Oriented Enterprise / Architecture– CMM, ISO 9002– Global Sourcing Strategy– Synchronising technology & process

• Not just technology but skills, too

Future Built on the Past

Business Requirements

Applications

Information Management Services

Data Management Services

Network Infrastructur

e

Compute

Infrastructure

Storage Infrastructur

e

Business Business ProcessProcess

ManagemenManagementt

Defi

ne

Defi

ne

Req

uir

Req

uir

ee

Policies / Policies / FiltersFilters

InformationInformation

Req

uir

em

en

tsR

eq

ui r

em

en

ts

Bu

sin

ess

Bu

si n

ess

Fr a

mew

or

Fra

mew

or

kk

ILM

Fra

mew

ork

ILM

Fra

mew

ork

IT InfrastructureIT Infrastructure

Future: Information Lifecycle

• Technology is not the story anymore– Governance– Compliance

• Anti-spam / privacy / Sarbanes / Clerp

– Transparency– Access to Information– Internal security processes– Alignment to business– Business support & appreciation of technology

Building the future

• Quality-driven• Cost a major factor

– Savings of 20 % - 60 %– Commodity-style engagement

• Local job roles will go• Challenge with processes of offshore

outsourcers• Project management difficulties

– Expectation setting– Culture of scope creep confronted

• Organisations must adapt / improve

Offshore Outsourcing: What’s our destiny?

22

1111

3434

3535

3939

3939

4343

4343

4646

5252

6666

00 2020 4040 6060 8080 100100

None of aboveNone of above

OtherOther

Not consideredNot considered

QualityQuality

Cost savings unprovenCost savings unproven

Projects not large enoughProjects not large enough

Language/ Cultural issuesLanguage/ Cultural issues

Risk too greatRisk too great

Project ManagementProject Management

Security/ Privacy issuesSecurity/ Privacy issues

Prefer a local providerPrefer a local provider

Barriers to Offshore OutsourcingBarriers to Offshore Outsourcing

Base: All respondents not currently outsourcing OR considering outsourcing

(n=88)

33

77

1313

44

44

66

22

7070

6262

5050

4747

3838

2929

1616

2727

3131

3737

4949

5858

6565

8282

00 2020 4040 6060 8080 100100

Necessary with lean budgetNecessary with lean budget

Best value for moneyBest value for money

World-class serviceWorld-class service

Proactive strategy to cutProactive strategy to cutexpenditureexpenditure

Long-term danger toLong-term danger toindustry developmentindustry development

Good for globalGood for globalcompetitivenesscompetitiveness

Threat to local Threat to local employmentemployment

% of Respondents (n=100)% of Respondents (n=100)

YesYesNoNoDon't KnowDon't Know

Attitudes towards outsourcingAttitudes towards outsourcing

Base: 100 respondents

• Not simply cutting back– Maximising value of assets– Hope for Web Services– Lower cost of maintenance

• self-healing, autonomic computing

– Desire for management software– Merging voice & data networks– Single networks = single skills

• Appeal of IP telephony / VoIP• 12% of Australian companies moving to

IP telephony this year

Cost Control & Cost Avoidance

10102424141412122020More than 4 yearsMore than 4 years

292935353131292933334 years4 years

626237375151525241413 years3 years

--444477662 years2 years

Utilities

(n=21)

%

Health

(n=51)

%

Finance & Insurance

(n=49) %

Government

(n=84)

%

Manufacturing

(n=95)

%

Vertical Industry

Brands

% Respondents (n=300)

2 years2 years5%5%

3 years3 years47%47%

More than 4 yearsMore than 4 years17%17%

4 years4 years31%31%

Lifecycle of the computerLifecycle of the computer

Need for Management SoftwareNeed for Management Software

Total % of Respondents (n=268)

Yes -Yes - We currently We currently

useuse47%47%

Yes - We have a Yes - We have a future needfuture need

26%26%

Don't KnowDon't Know13%13%

NoNo14%14%

• Security - wake up!• Pressure 1: Software flaws• Pressure 2: Criminal intent, even terrorism threat• Pressure 3: Demand for anytime-anywhere access• Pressure 4: Transparency to stakeholders

– Priority but no money • - yeah, yeah . . .

– No sign of change in attitude– Slow to appoint CSOs– CIOs assuming control– Few organisations with ‘total view’ of

security - physical & systems

Hard ‘n’ Crunchy - Soft ‘n’ Chewy

Intention to $pend on IT securityIntention to $pend on IT securityApproximately how much do you expect your company to spend on Approximately how much do you expect your company to spend on

IT security products and services within the next 12 months?IT security products and services within the next 12 months?

77

1414

1111

1515

25252323

33

77

1010

1515

20201818

2323

88

00

1010

2020

3030

Less thanLess than$5,000$5,000

$5,001 to$5,001 to$10,000$10,000

$10,001 to$10,001 to$25,000$25,000

$25,001 to$25,001 to$50,000$50,000

$50,001 to$50,001 to$100,000$100,000

More thanMore than$100,000$100,000

Don't knowDon't know

% o

f R

esp

on

den

ts (

n=

200)

% o

f R

esp

on

den

ts (

n=

200)

20042004

20032003

Brand Awareness: Anti-Virus Brand Awareness: Anti-Virus SoftwareSoftware

44

5588

991313

17172323

3737

49495555

56566060

69697777

8989

00 2020 4040 6060 8080 100100

BrightmailBrightmail

FinjanFinjan

KaperskyKapersky

PandaPanda

SonicWALLSonicWALL

F-SecureF-Secure

NormanNorman

SophosSophos

Check PointCheck Point

NANA

Trend MicroTrend Micro

CA /eTrustCA /eTrust

CA / VETCA / VET

SymantecSymantec

McAfeeMcAfee

% of Respondents (n=200)% of Respondents (n=200)

Q. Thinking about Anti-Virus software, which of the following brands/companies

are you aware of in this category? Prompted

Trustworthiness: Anti-Virus Trustworthiness: Anti-Virus SoftwareSoftware

TRUSTWORTHINESS: A TRUSTWORTHINESS: A trustworthy and credible trustworthy and credible brand on which you can brand on which you can dependdepend

BrightmailFinjanKaperskyPanda

SonicWALLF-Secure

Norman

Sophos

Check Point

Network Associates Trend MicroComputer Associates

VET

Symantec

McAfee

0

20

40

60

80

100

2.90 3.10 3.30 3.50 3.70 3.90 4.10

TRUSTWORTHINESS: Average Performance Rating (Mean)

% B

ran

d A

wa

ren

es

s

• Increasing accessibility– Anytime / Anywhere

• Remote access - fixed or wireless• Hotspot access

– ‘Toy Time’ - Executive fashion parade• Computers that do phone calls

• Telephones to do e-mail

– To support, or Not to support– VPNs and secure access

• Federated Identity• Public Key Infrastructure

– Connecting with customers & suppliers– IP Telephony

Squeeze on SecurityOi! What do you mean you won’t support my new e-mail phone. I paid $1200 for it!

Wireless or Unwired?Wireless or Unwired?• Why use?Why use?

– 83% say e-mail access83% say e-mail access– 64% say calendar / scheduling64% say calendar / scheduling– 60% say web access60% say web access– 45% say productivity via VPN45% say productivity via VPN

• Security & Trust ImprovingSecurity & Trust Improving– Move to 802.11g standardMove to 802.11g standard– Great acceptance in IT departmentsGreat acceptance in IT departments– Plethora of devices coming into an Plethora of devices coming into an

organisationorganisation

10

17

26

5

24

16

2

0

10

20

30

40

50

Within theWithin thenext yearnext year

Within theWithin the

next 2 yearsnext 2 yearsWithin theWithin the

next 3 yearsnext 3 yearsWithin theWithin the

next 4 yearsnext 4 yearsMore than 4More than 4

yearsyearsHas alreadyHas already

been donebeen doneDon't KnowDon't Know

% o

f R

esp

on

den

ts (

n=

300)

Replacing PCs with Replacing PCs with NotebooksNotebooks

VsVs..

Notebook spend increaseNotebook spend increase

‘Average % spend increase’

23.7623.7620.7720.77 19.1819.18 19.0719.07 18.3218.32

0.000.00

10.0010.00

20.0020.00

30.0030.00

40.0040.00

50.0050.00

HealthHealth GovernmentGovernment Finance &Finance &InsuranceInsurance

ManufacturingManufacturing UtilitiesUtilities

% o

f R

esp

on

den

ts (

n=

300)

% o

f R

esp

on

den

ts (

n=

300)

Devices with Good VibrationsDevices with Good Vibrations• Handhelds = PCs in ’97Handhelds = PCs in ’97

– Lack of input devices will create Lack of input devices will create innovationinnovation

– MEMS: Microelectrical Mechanical SystemsMEMS: Microelectrical Mechanical Systems• Tilt to scrollTilt to scroll• Shake for menuShake for menu• Rotate for Landscape viewRotate for Landscape view

– Java2 Micro Edition for 3D GraphicsJava2 Micro Edition for 3D Graphics– HapticsHaptics

• Vibration interactionVibration interaction

– Sony ‘gummi’Sony ‘gummi’• Bend on CommandBend on Command

• Wireless Broadband Networks being launchedWireless Broadband Networks being launched– UnwiredUnwired– Personal Broadband AustraliaPersonal Broadband Australia– BigAirBigAir– W-Home (SkynetGlobalW-Home (SkynetGlobal– AzureAzure– TelstraTelstra– OptusOptus

• Wireless in many formsWireless in many forms– Corporate LANs and WANsCorporate LANs and WANs– HotSpotsHotSpots– iBurst (13km signal)iBurst (13km signal)– GPRS / CDMAGPRS / CDMA

• HotspotsHotspots– 300 + in Australia - 300 + in Australia -

• McDonald’s, Gloria Jeans, Starbucks, Greenwood Plaza, Hudson’s, McDonald’s, Gloria Jeans, Starbucks, Greenwood Plaza, Hudson’s, DeliFrance, Airports, train stations, selected CBD hotelsDeliFrance, Airports, train stations, selected CBD hotels

Wireless or Unwired?Wireless or Unwired?

Bandwidth with BeatBandwidth with Beat• New technologiesNew technologies

– SuperGSuperG (Now)(Now)

• Data through one channel, not split into 3 Data through one channel, not split into 3 (802.11 a/b/g - 802.16) (802.11 a/b/g - 802.16)

– UltrawidebandUltrawideband (2006 -)(2006 -)

• Bluetooth alternativeBluetooth alternative

– WiMaxWiMax - - (2008 - )(2008 - )

• Increased speeds for long distance Increased speeds for long distance wireless mobile / fixed accesswireless mobile / fixed access

– Over HorizonOver Horizon (2010 +)(2010 +)

• Mesh NetworksMesh Networks• Smart DustSmart Dust• SensorsSensors

• Penetration• 4 % in 2003• 13 % in 2008*

• Reach• 727,000 in 2003• 2.8 million in 2008

– Speeds of 256 Kpbs too slow

• Coming soon… – SIP - Session Initiation Protocol– FTTx

• Fibre to the Home• Fibre to the Office• Fibre to the anywhere . . .

– 156Mbps in each direction• Share between 16 / 32 Optical Units

Broadband Challenge

* IDC, 2004

• Sell technology alignment to business– Socialise & Network

• Budget & Risk– Move or share project risk and cost

• Explain changes• Needs• Methods• Business benefits• Technology

• Decide what success looks like– Set goals / milestones– State imperatives for teamwork

Future Thoughts for CIO

* IDC, 2004

• Mobility will rule– New networks / devices / access

• So does Complexity– Need for agility and process will become

painfully obvious– Systems will become more integrated

• Security / spam/ privacy guards

– Compliance will get tougher

• Risk / Cost moves to business• Operational cost pressure stay• Bandwidth - not just computing power

- will dictate pace of evolution

Final Thoughts

Charting a course for the next five years . . . Mapping the Future of I.T.

Mark Hollands, Principal, ITRmark.hollands@itresearch.com.aumark.hollands@itresearch.com.au