mariken homleid and frank thomas tveter · orbiting noaa and metop satellites. gnss were introduced...

METinfoNo. 17/2019

ISSN 1894-759X

Meteorology

Verification of Operational

Weather Prediction Models

December 2018 to February 2019

Mariken Homleid and Frank Thomas Tveter

Contents

Introduction

Models . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4

Post processed forecasts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4

The HARMONIE system . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5

Verification measures . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7

Observations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8

Mean Sea Level Pressure figures

Statistics by lead time . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9

Monthly summary statistics the last three years . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10

Temperature 2m figures


Monthly mean error the last three years . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12

Monthly standard deviation of error the last three years . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13

Monthly mean absolute error the last three years . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14

Maps for each region . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15

Time series for selected stations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27

Post processed temperature 2m figures


Wind speed 10m figures

Statistics summarized over Norwegian stations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 40

Statistics summarized over Svalbard stations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 41

Statistics summarized over north Nowegian stations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 42

Monthly mean error the last three years . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 43

Monthly standard deviation of error the last three years . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 44

Monthly mean absolute error the last three years . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 45

Maps for each region . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 46

Time series for selected stations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 52

Post processed maximum mean wind speed 10m figures


Statistics for categorised events . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 63

Wind gust figures


Statistics for categorised events . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 64

2

Precipitation figures

Statistics by lead time (RR12) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 65

Statistics for categorised events (RR12) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 65

Monthly mean error the last three years (RR24) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 66

Monthly standard deviation of error the last three years (RR24) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 67

Monthly mean absolute error the last three years (RR24) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 68

Maps for each region (RR24) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 69

Time series for selected stations (RR12) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 75

More information...

Verification results are also available on internal web pages

• http://metcoop.smhi.se/ - MetCoOp Web Tools - including verification and observation monitoring

• http://verif/vmap/ - timeseries and windroses - on Google map

3

Models

The following Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models are verified in this report.

ECMWF Global model (IFS) at the European Centre for Medium-Range

Weather Forecasts. From 26 January 2010 horizontal resolution

approximately 16×16 km2. From 8 March 2016 cycle 41r2 with

horizontal resolution about 9km. ECMWF is available about 5

hours later than models run at MET.

AROME-MetCoOp (AM25) HARMONIE with AROME physics, horizontal resolution de-

fined by a 2.5 × 2.5 km2 grid on same domain as AROME-

Norway. Run in cooperation with Swedish Meteorological and

Hydrological Institute (SMHI). Experimental with cycle 38h1.1

from 9 December 2013, operational from 12 March 2014 to 8

November 2016, cycle 38h1.2 from 8 December 2014.

AROME-Arctic (AA25) HARMONIE with AROME physics, horizontal resolution de-

fined by a 2.5 × 2.5 km2 grid, same domain size as AROME-

MetCoOp. Experimental with cycle 38h1.2 from 15 October

2015, on Yr from 14 December 2016, cycle 40h1.1 since 19 June

2017.

MetCoOp ensemble system (MEPSctrl) MEPS has 10 ensemble members, only member 0, the control,

is verified in this report. MEPS is based on HARMONIE cycle

40h1.1 with AROME physics and non-hydrostatic dynamics, hor-

izontal resolution defined by a 2.5× 2.5 km2 grid. Experimental

since 25 May 2016. Operational status since 8 November 2016.

Analysis and lead times of forecasts are denoted by e.g. 00+30 UTC which indicates forecast generated

at 00 UTC and valid 30 hours later.

A change log for HARMONIE AROME is available on internal webpages

https://metcoop.smhi.se/dokuwiki/nwp/metcoop/changelog/start.

Post processed forecasts

Most of the raw NWP model data are post processed before being published on Yr.

The met nordic temperature forecasts, YrPP in the plots, are post-processed forecasts based on the lat-

est MEPS control run. The MEPS temperature forecasts are first downscaled to 1 km resolution using

the model lapse rate in a neighbourhood. The forecasts are then bias corrected using a fine scale 1 km

temperature analysis as reference. The temperature analysis is based on mulitple data sources using both

conventional and citizen observations.

10 m wind speed is statistically post processed to represent maximum wind speed 10m last hour, and

called YrPP.

4

The HARMONIE system

HARMONIE is the acronym for HIRLAM’s meso-scale forecast system (Hirlam Aladin Regional/Meso-

scale Operational NWP In Europe). For documentation see

- The HARMONIE-AROME Model Configuration in the ALADIN-HIRLAM NWP System by Bengtsson

et al. 2017, available at https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-16-0417.1

- AROME-MetCoOp: A Nordic Convective-Scale Operational Weather Prediction Model by Muller et

al. 2017, available at https://doi.org/10.1175/WAF-D-16-0099.1

More documentation is also available on http://www.cnrm.meteo.fr/gmapdoc/ and http://hirlam.org/.

This section presents some of the main components and setups that are used at MET.

AROME physics

AROME (Applications of Research to Operations at MEsoscale) is targeted for horizontal resolution 2.5

km or finer. It uses physical parameterizations based on the French academia model Meso-NH and the

external surface model SURFEX. AROME has been operational at Meteo-France since 18 December

2008 with a horizontal resolution of 2.5 km and 65 vertical layers, and from April 2015 1.3 km and 90

vertical layers.

SURFEX as surface model

SURFEX (Surface externalisee) is developed at Meteo-France and academia for offline experiments and

introduced in NWP models to ensure consistent treatment of processes related to surface. Meteo-France

uses SURFEX in all their configurations. Surface modelling and assimilation benefit from the possibility

of running offline experiments. SURFEX is also used for offline applications in e.g. hydrology, vegeta-

tion monitoring and snow avalanche forecasts.

SURFEX includes routines to simulate the exchange of energy and water between the atmosphere and

4 surface types (tiles); land, sea (ocean), lake (inland water) and town. The land or nature tile can be

divided further into 12 vegetation types (patches). ISBA (Interaction between Soil Biosphere and At-

mosphere) is used for modelling the land surface processes. There are 3 ISBA options; 2- and 3-layer

force restore and a diffusive approach, where the first one is used in HIRLAM. Towns may be treated

by a separate TEB (Town Energy Balance) module. Seas and lakes are also treated separately. The lake

model, FLAKE (Freshwater LAKE), has recently been introduced in SURFEX. A global ECOCLIMAP

database which combines land cover maps and satellite information gives information about surface

properties. The orography is taken from gtopo30.

SURFEX Scientific Documentation and User’s Guide are available on http://www.cnrm.meteo.fr/surfex/

5

Data assimilation

NWP models are updated regularly using observations received in real-time from the global observing

system. MEPS is updated each third hour; at 00, 03, 06, 09, 12, 15, 18 and 21 UTC.

Surface analysis

Surface analysis is performed by CANARI (Code d’Analyse Necessaire a ARPEGE pour ses Rejets et

son Initialisation) (Taillefer, 2002). The analysis method is Optimal Interpolation and only conventional

synoptic observations are used. 2 meter temperature and relative humidity observations are used to up-

date the surface and soil temperature and moisture.

The snow analysis is also performed with CANARI in analogy with the HIRLAM snow analysis. Snow

depth observations are used to update Snow Water Equivalent. The snow fields are analysed only at 06

UTC as there are very few snow depth observations at 00, 03, 09, 12, 15, 18 and 21.

The Sea Surface Temperature (SST) and Sea Ice Concentration (SIC) is not analysed, but taken from

the boundaries. ECMWF uses the OSTIA (Operational Sea Surface Temperature and Sea Ice Analysis)

product, including SST from UK Met Office and SIC from MET. SST and SIC for the Baltic Sea have

since 26 November 2015 been taken from ocean models run at SMHI; first HIROMB and since 26 April

2017 NEMO.

The surface temperature over sea ice was taken from the boundary model and remained unchanged

through the forecast. A simple thermodynamical sea ice scheme (SICE) giving prognostic sea ice tem-

peratures in 4 fixed layers was introduced 26 November 2015.

Upper air analysis

MEPS runs three dimensional variational (3D VAR) data assimilation using conventional observations

from synop stations, ships, radiosondes and aircrafts and AMSU-A and AMSU-B/MHS data from polar

orbiting NOAA and METOP satellites. GNSS were introduced 17 February 2015, radar reflectivities 16

June 2015, IASI 26 November 2015 and ASCAT 17 March 2016.

Boundary fields

MEPS gets its boundary values (1-hourly) from the ECMWF model at approximately 16 km resolution,

and has currently 65 vertical levels. None of the HARMONIE configurations at MET have applied digi-

tal filter initialization (DFI).

6

Verification measures

All model forecasts in this report are verified against observations by interpolating (linear) the grid based

forecasts to the observational sites. As a consequence, it should be noted that it is the models’ abilities

to forecast the observations that is being quantifed and assessed. Thus, there is no attempt in this report

to verify area averaged precipitation for example.

Verification is carried out both for raw and categorized forecasts. In the following, let f1, ..., fn denote

the forecasts and o1, ...,on the corresponding observations.

Forecasts of continuous variables

The verification statistics applied to continuous variables are defined in the table below

Statistic Acronym Formula Range Optimal score

Mean Error ME1

n∑

ni=1( fi −oi) −∞ to ∞ 0

Mean Absolute Error MAE1

n∑

ni=1 | fi −oi | 0 to ∞ 0

Standard Deviation of Error SDE

( 1

n

n

∑i=1

( fi −oi −ME)2)1/2

0 to ∞ 0

Root Mean Square Error RMSE

( 1

n

n

∑i=1

( fi −oi)2)1/2

0 to ∞ 0

Correlation COR

1n ∑

ni=1( fi − f )(oi − o)

SD( f )SD(o)−1 to 1 1

In the formula for COR the following definitions are used

f =1

n

n

∑i=1

fi, o =1

n

n

∑i=1

oi

SD( f ) =(1

n

n

∑i=1

( fi − f )2)1/2

, SD(o) =(1

n

n

∑i=1

(oi − o)2)1/2

for the means and standard deviations of the forecasts and observations.

7

Forecasts of categorical variables

All variables in this report are continuous in raw form, but it is possible to categorize them and verify

these. For example, wind speed above a given threshold could be of interest which would result in two

possible outcomes (yes and no). The verification is then completely summarized by a contingency table

as the one shown below

event observed

yes no

yes a bevent forecasted

no c d

Verification statistics for such forecasts are listed in the following table

Statistic Acronym Formula Range Optimal score

Hit rate HRa

a+ c0 to 1 1

False alarm rate Fb

b+d0 to 1 0

False alarm ratio FARb

a+b0 to 1 0

Equitable threat score ETSa−ar

a+b+ c−ar−1/3 to 1 1 (0 = no skill)

Hanssen-Kuipers skill score KSS HR - F −1 to 1 1 (0 = no skill)

Heidke skill score HSS(a+d)/n− ss f

1− ss f−∞ to 1 1 (0 = no skill)

In the formula for ETS ar = (a+b)(a+ c)/n.

In the formula for HSS the score for the standard forecast ss f = [(a+b)(a+ c)+(b+d)(c+d)]/n2.

Observations

All observations come from Klimadatavarehuset at MET. Only synop stations are used. The model wind

speed is verified against mean wind observations, FF. The post processed wind speed is intended to

represent maximum wind speed 10m last hour, and is verified against FX.

8

Dec 2018 to Feb 2019 Mean Sea Level Pressure

Lead time (hour)

Mean Error

3 9 15 24 33 42 51 60

−1.0

−0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

155 Nor. stations 00+3,+6,...,+66

MEPSctrl ECMWF

Lead time (hour)

Standard Deviation of Error

3 9 15 24 33 42 51 60

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

155 Nor. stations 00+3,+6,...,+66

Lead time (hour)

Mean Absolute Error

3 9 15 24 33 42 51 60

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

155 Nor. stations 00+3,+6,...,+66

Lead time (hour)

Mean Error

3 9 15 24 33 42 51 60

−1.0

−0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

13 Svalbard stations 00+3,+6,...,+66

AA25 ECMWF

Lead time (hour)


3 9 15 24 33 42 51 60

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5


Lead time (hour)

Mean Absolute Error

3 9 15 24 33 42 51 60

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0


Lead time (hour)

Mean Error

3 9 15 24 33 42 51 60

−1.0

−0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

51 North Scand. stations 00+3,+6,...,+66

AA25

MEPSctrl

ECMWF

Lead time (hour)


3 9 15 24 33 42 51 60

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5


Lead time (hour)

Mean Absolute Error

3 9 15 24 33 42 51 60

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0


9

Dec 2018 to Feb 2019 Mean Sea Level Pressure

Dec15 Mar16 Jun16 Sep16 Dec16 Mar17 Jun17 Sep17 Dec17 Mar18 Jun18 Sep18 Dec18

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

Mean Absolute Error112 Norwegian stations 00+24,+30,+36,+42 UTC

ECMWF AM25 MEPSctrl


0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5



−1.5

−1.0

−0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

Mean Error

10

Dec 2018 to Feb 2019 Temperature 2m

Lead time (hour)

Mean Error

3 9 15 24 33 42 51 60

−2

−1

0

1

267 Nor. stations 00+3,+6,...,+66

MEPSctrl ECMWF

Lead time (hour)


3 9 15 24 33 42 51 60

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

267 Nor. stations 00+3,+6,...,+66

Lead time (hour)

Mean Absolute Error

3 9 15 24 33 42 51 60

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

267 Nor. stations 00+3,+6,...,+66

Lead time (hour)

Mean Error

3 9 15 24 33 42 51 60

−2

−1

0

1


AA25 ECMWF

Lead time (hour)


3 9 15 24 33 42 51 60

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0


Lead time (hour)

Mean Absolute Error

3 9 15 24 33 42 51 60

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0


Lead time (hour)

Mean Error

3 9 15 24 33 42 51 60

−2

−1

0

1


AA25

MEPSctrl

ECMWF

Lead time (hour)


3 9 15 24 33 42 51 60

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0


Lead time (hour)

Mean Absolute Error

3 9 15 24 33 42 51 60

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0


11



−3

−2

−1

0

1

00+24,+30,+36,+42 UTC

ECMWF AM25 MEPSctrl

158 Norwegian stations


−3

−2

−1

0

1

40 Norwegian coastal stations


−3

−2

−1

0

1

85 Norwegian inland stations

Mean Error

12



0

1

2

3

4

5

00+24,+30,+36,+42 UTC

ECMWF AM25 MEPSctrl



0

1

2

3

4

5



0

1

2

3

4

5



13



0

1

2

3

4

00+24,+30,+36,+42 UTC

ECMWF AM25 MEPSctrl



0

1

2

3

4



0

1

2

3

4


Mean Absolute Error

14


−30

−25

−20

−15

−10

−5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

MEPSctrl 00+12ME at observing sites(numbers in black)

Model "climatology" 01.12.2018 − 28.02.2019

0.2

−0.1

0.3

−0.4

0

1.4

0.4

0

0.2

0.1

−0.9

−0.4

0.1−0.4

−0.2

−0.1

0.2

−0.1

0.1

0

0.3 0

0

0

0

−0.2

0.2

−0.2

−0.1−0.1

0.4

0.3

0.30.4

0

0

0.30.50

−0.5

0 1.1−0.1

1.5−0.8

−0.7

−0.30.3−0.30.5−1

0.40.2

0−0.11.1

−0.6

1.4−0.9

0.5

2.4

−1

1.31.4

2.2

−1.21−0.6

1.4

1.5

−1−1.1

−0.8

3.7

4.9−1.1

−0.7

−0.8

−0.6−0.82.6

1.1−1.60.3

2−0.10.5

−0.6

2.53

1.4−0.2

−0.1

−0.2

0.5

−0.4

0.4

0

1.90.2

0.6

−1.5

1.3

−0.4

−0.8

1.1−0.61.3

0

−0.7

0.1

−0.1

−0.1

0.3

−0.1

0.2

−0.5

−0.6

1.3

−0.2

0.21.5

0.3

−0.2

0.3

0.40.50.6

0.3

0.4

0.4

1.1

0.1

0.40.1

−0.2

0.2

−0.5

−0.20.5−0.4

0.8

1.3

1.8

0.3

−0.5

0.60.71.2

0.2−0.2

0.30.4 0.9

0.9

0.2

0

0.10.4

0 −0.30.4

0.40.1−0.5

0.90

0.20.10.20.61.80

−0.6

0.2

2.1

2.6

0.5

−0.6

0.7−0.5

−1

1.9

0.9

2−0.1

0.40.3

0.9

−0.3

−0.2

0.2

0.1

0

0.10.2

−0.8

0 0.5−0.6

−1

2.8−2.1

−0.40.3

−0.4

1.1

−0.8−0.5

0.3

−0.1

−0.2

0.3

0.3

0.6

−0.2

0

−0.2

0.1

−0.1

−0.3

0.6

0.2

−0.4

0

1

−1.2−0.6 0.3

−0.3

0.1

−0.4

0.2

0.1

−0.4

−1.1

1.4

1.2

−0.5

0.1

0.4

0.1

1.2

2.8

0.5

−0.1

1.3

0.7

−0.1

0.1

−0.5

1

0.7

−0.3

0.7

−1.2

15


−30

−25

−20

−15

−10

−5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30



0.8

−0.3

0.6

0

−0.1

1.5

0.2

−0.2

0.2

1

−0.9

1

0.10

0.6

−0.2

0.4

−0.1

0.1

0.1

0.2 −0.2

0.1

−0.2

0

0.1

−0.2

0.1

0

0.20.3

0.5

0.2

0.40.5

0.1

−0.6

−0.50.3−0.2

−0.2

0.2 1.60.7

1.9−0.9

−0.4

−0.110.22

−1.30.9

0.1

0.8−0.62−0.1

2.6−0.7

1.3

2.8

0.1

1.53

1.5

−20.8−0.4

2.21.6

−0.9−0.9

−0.6

3.8

4.3−1.9−0.6

−0.3

−0.20.22.4

0.9−1.40.6

1.90.91.1

−0.7

2.83.2

2.4−0.4

0.41.4

0.6

0.1

0.5

−0.1

2.1−0.2

2.1

−1.5

1.7

−0.5

−0.6

0.7−0.71.2

−0.2

−0.6

0.1

−0.4

−0.4

0.3

−0.3

0.1

−0.6

−0.4

0.8

−0.2

0.11.2

0.2

−0.5

−0.3

0.10.10.5

0.4

0.5

0

0.6

0.2

0.4−0.1

−0.4

0

−0.4

00.5−0.5

1.1

1.2

2

0.5

−0.5

0.50.91.7

0.1−0.4

0.40.3 1.5

1.1

0.2

0.1

0.10.4

−0.4 −0.40.1

0.3−0.3−0.8

0.8−0.5

0.10.10.50.920

−0.6

−0.1

2.5

3.4

0.3

−0.8

0.5−0.5

−0.8

2

0.9

1.8−0.5

0.50.3

0.8

−0.3

0

0.3

−0.1

0.3

−0.10.2

−0.8

0.1 0.6−0.5

−0.1

2.8−2.6

−0.50.1

−0.5

1.2

−0.6−0.3

−0.1

0.2

0.1

0.5

0.5

0.7

−0.4

0.1

−0.7

1.2

−0.5

−0.5

1.3

0.6

0.4

0.3

1.3

−1.1−1.2 0.6

0.1

0.7

−0.6

−0.2

0

−0.1

−1.6

1.3

1.5

−0.3

0.2

1.3

0.3

1

3.4

1.3

0.9

2.6

1.3

0.3

0.5

−0.1

1.5

0.9

−0.1

0.4

−0.5

16


−30

−25

−20

−15

−10

−5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

MEPSctrl 00+12SDE at observing sites(numbers in black)


2.6

0.7

1.1

1.8

0.7

4.5

3.6

3.1

3.2

3.1

2

3.4

22

2.1

1.7

2.1

1.8

1.4

2.1

1.5

1.1

1.7 1.7

1.1

1.7

1.1

0.8

1.3

0.6

0.70.6

1

1.1

1

0.91

0.7

1.31.3

1.71.4

1.6

1.8 2.62.12.6

1.82

1.62.11.51.71.8

2.22.2

21.82.32.6

3.31.3

2.4

3.6

2.4

3.44.2

2.5

1.82.81.7

3.34.3

1.11.3

1.74.7

4.21.6

1.7

1.8

1.91.83.4

2.61.63.4

2.82.12.4

1.9

3.33.6

42.2

2.83

2.3

1.4

2

1.6

2.92.3

2.4

1.7

1.7

1.3

2.6

2.21.13.1

2.8

1.6

0.9

1.51.1

0.9

1

1.6

1

1.8

2.5

1.9

1.82.7

1.7

1.6

2.1

2.422.41.5

3.5

3.22.9

1

1.30.9

2.5

1.1

1.3

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2.5

2.4

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2

2.13.13.7

2.90.9

0.81.9 3

2.6

1.12.2

0.70.8

1.4 1.11.2

1.611.4

1.40.9

1.31.31.31.531.2

1.1

1.3

4.45

1.2

1.2

1.11

2.33.2

1

3.2 1.7

1.41.6

1.5

1.1

3.2

4.44.1

2.1

1.41.31.1

0.9 11

2.3

4.82.3

1.61.1

1.5

3.7

1.71.5

2.5

3

3.4

0.9

0.9

0.7

0.9

1.2

1.3

1.3

1.8

1

1.7

2.5

1.6

2.5

1.8

2

1.41.8 2.4

1.4

2.4

1.8

2

2.9

1.9

1.6

3.8

4.1

2.41.6

3.4

3.2

4.5

5.5

3.53.6

4.9

3.32.5

2.32.6

4.6

3.2

2.8

3.3

3.3

17


−30

−25

−20

−15

−10

−5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30



3.8

1.2

1.2

2.8

0.9

4.9

5

3.6

4.2

4.4

2.6

4.2

2.73.4

3.1

2.2

3.1

1.5

2.7

1.5

2.4 2

2.1

2.2

1.8

0.9

2.3

0.8

0.80.7

0.8

1.1

0.9

1.61.6

0.9

1.41.8

2.32.1

2

1.8 3.13.12.6

2.32.5

1.62.41.72.51.8

2.52.4

2.72.22.92.9

41.3

3.6

4.3

4.1

4.46.2

2.5

2.32.92.1

4.25.2

1.11.8

2.25.8

4.41.5

2.4

2.2

2.533.8

3.21.34.2

2.72.92.7

2.2

43.8

5.12.3

34.8

2.6

2.1

2.2

2.1

3.32.1

3.5

1.8

2.5

1.4

2.9

2.21.43.2

3

1.8

0.9

1.81.2

1

1.2

2

1.1

2.8

2.6

3.4

2.32.9

2.4

1.8

2.3

32.52.91.8

3.6

2.62.8

1.5

1.50.9

2.3

1.1

1.5

1.51.51.8

3.1

2.7

3.6

3.2

2.3

2.44.14.6

3.11

12.2 3.7

3.4

1.22.6

0.90.9

1.6 1.21.3

1.91.11.7

1.41.3

1.31.31.71.631.3

1.1

1.3

4.2

5.4

1.4

1.2

1.31.1

2.43.4

1.1

3.31.9

1.41.7

1.8

1.5

4.5

4.83.7

2.9

1.51.61.4

1.1 1.11.2

3.4

5.42.5

1.81.5

1.7

4.1

1.81.4

3.1

4.3

4.9

0.9

0.9

0.9

1.3

1.8

1.8

1.5

3.1

1.3

2

3.2

2.7

4

2.6

3

1.71.8 4

1.9

3.5

2

2.4

3.9

3.6

2

4.9

5.5

3.32.3

4.6

4.4

4.2

6.3

45.1

5.9

4.53.2

2.93.1

5.1

3.6

3.7

3

4.3

18


−30

−25

−20

−15

−10

−5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30



0

0.3

0.1

0.50

−0.5

0 1.1−0.1

1.5−0.8

−0.7

−0.3

0.3−0.30.5−1

0.4

0−0.11.1

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0.5

2.4

1.31.4

2.2

−1.21−0.6

1.4

1.5

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3.7

4.9−1.1

−0.7

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1.1

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2−0.10.5

−0.6

2.5

3

1.4−0.2

−0.1

−0.2

0.5

−0.4

0.2

0.4

0

0−0.6

1.9

0.1

0.2

0.2

0.6

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2.5

−0.11.20.80.5

1.7

−1

−0.3

0.1

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−0.1

0.1

0.1

0.2

−0.5

0.1

0.7

0.5−0.3

−0.7

−0.4

−0.2

2.2

−0.2

−0.20.3

−0.2

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2.4−0.1

−0.6

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2.112.1 −0.9

0−0.1

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0.7

1.3−0.1

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0.10.9 1.6

2.6

−0.7

1.7

0−0.7

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10.8

1.3

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0

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0.20.3

1.1−0.61.3

0.1

0

−0.7

0.1

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−0.1

0.3

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0.2

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0.2 1.5

0.3

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0.3

0.50.60.3

0.1

0.3

0.3

0.6

0.2

−0.3

0

0.2

−0.2

−0.3

−0.4

−0.3−0.1

−0.1

19


−30

−25

−20

−15

−10

−5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30



−0.6

−0.5

0.2

0.3−0.2

−0.2

0.2 1.60.7

1.9−0.9

−0.4

−0.1

10.22

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0.9

0.8−0.62

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1.3

2.8

1.53

1.5

−20.8−0.4

2.2

1.6

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3.8

4.3−1.9

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0.22.40.9

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1.90.91.1

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2.8

3.2

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0.4

1.4

0.6

0.1

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0.5

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2.1

0.8

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0.1

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0.30.2

2.5

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0.2

1.7

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0.5

0.3

0.30.3

0.1

0.2

0.4

0.1

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0

0.8

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2

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00.4

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1.50.31.5 −0.6

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0

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0.7

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0.3

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0.1

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0.3

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0.1

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−0.4

0.8

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0.1 1.2

0.2

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0.10.50.4

0.2

0.5

0.5

0.7

0.3

−0.3

0

0.3

0

−0.2

−0.8

−0.5−0.1

−0.1

20


−30

−25

−20

−15

−10

−5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30



1.3

1.31.2

1.71.4

1.6

1.8 2.62.1

2.61.8

2

1.62.11.51.71.8

2.22.2

21.82.3

2.6

1.3

2.4

3.6

3.44.2

2.5

1.8

2.81.7

3.3

4.3

1.11.3

1.7

4.7

4.21.6

1.7

1.8

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2.61.63.4

2.82.12.4

1.9

3.3

3.6

42.2

2.83

2.3

1.4

1.3

2

1.6

11.8

2.9

1.6

2.3

2.1

2.4

1.71.81.4

1.31.1

3.3

1.51.71.92.2

2.8

1.2

2

1.511.5

1

0.9

1.9

0.9

1

0.8

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0.90.9

0.9

1.51.4

2.3

0.7

10.6

1.4

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11.11.2

2.8

1.8

1.5

1.91.1

2.622.9 2.3

1.21.3

1

1.9

2.31

1.21

1.42 2.2

3.1

1.3

3.4

1.2 1.2

1.8

1.1

1.9 2

1.7

1.4

1.3

1

2.71.1

1.4

2.61.2

1.2 1.6

2.21.13.1

0.9

2.8

1.6

0.9

1.5

1.1

0.9

1

1.6

1

1.8

2.5

1.9

1.82.7

1.7

1.6

2.1

2.422.4

1.5

1

0.9

0.9

0.7

0.8

0.7

0.9

0.7

0.8

0.9

0.9

1.21.1

1

1.3

21


−30

−25

−20

−15

−10

−5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30



1.4

1.81.4

2.32.1

2

1.8 3.13.1

2.62.3

2.5

1.62.41.72.51.8

2.52.4

2.72.22.9

2.9

1.3

3.6

4.3

4.46.2

2.5

2.32.92.1

4.2

5.2

1.11.8

2.2

5.8

4.41.5

2.4

2.2

2.533.8

3.21.34.2

2.72.92.7

2.2

4

3.8

5.12.3

34.8

2.6

2.1

1.6

2.2

2.1

1.11.8

3.3

1.3

2.1

2.5

3.5

1.832

1.91.2

3.6

1.32.31.82.1

3.7

1.3

3.4

21.11.5

0.8

0.8

2.4

0.9

1

0.8

2.2

1.11

1.2

1.91.1

2.4

0.7

1.10.7

1.9

1.21.4

0.8

11.41.3

2.8

2.4

1.9

2.91.4

2.42 3 2.6

1.11.8

1

1.9

2.41

1.50.8

1.41.8 2.3

3.4

1.7

3.6

1.5 1.6

1.7

1.2

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2.5

1.8

1.4

1.1

3.11.5

1.7

2.91.4

1.5 1.9

2.21.43.2

1

3

1.8

0.9

1.8

1.2

1

1.2

2

1.1

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2.6

3.4

2.32.9

2.4

1.8

2.3

2.52.91.8

1.5

0.9

0.9

0.9

0.8

0.7

0.8

0.7

0.8

0.9

1.4

1.31.1

1.2

1.5

22


−30

−25

−20

−15

−10

−5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30



0

0.3

0.1

0.50

−0.5

0 1.1−0.1

1.5−0.8

−0.7

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0.3

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0.40.2

0−0.11.1

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1.4

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0.5

2.4

−1

1.3

1.4

2.2

−1.2

1−0.6

1.4

1.5

−1

−1.1

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3.7

4.9−1.1

−0.7

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1.1

−1.60.3

2−0.10.5

−0.6

2.5

3

1.4−0.2

−0.1

−0.2

0.5

−0.4

0.2

0.4

0

0

−0.6

1.9

0.1

0.2

0.2

0.6

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−0.40

2.5

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0.5

1.7

−1

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0.1

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0.1

2.2

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2.4

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2.112.1−0.9

0

0.91.6

2.6

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1.7

10.8

1.3

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0.6−0.8

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0.20.3

1.1

−0.61.3

0.1

0

−0.7

0.1

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−0.1

−0.1

−0.6

1.3

−0.2

0.2 1.5

0.3

0.40.50.6

0.3

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−0.1

−0.2

0

0.1

0.6

−1.2

−0.4

0.1

−0.4

−1.1

23


−30

−25

−20

−15

−10

−5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30



−0.6

−0.5

0.2

0.3−0.2

−0.2

0.2 1.60.7

1.9−0.9

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1

0.22

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0.90.1

0.8−0.62

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2.6−0.7

1.3

2.8

0.1

1.5

3

1.5

−2

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2.2

1.6

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4.3−1.9

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0.22.4

0.9

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1.90.91.1

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2.8

3.2

2.4−0.4

0.4

1.4

0.6

0.1

0.5

0.5

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0

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2.1

0.8

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0.1

2.1

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0.30.2

2.5

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0.2

1.7

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0.5

0.3

0.30.30.2

0.4

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1.9

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1.50.31.5

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0.1

0.51.4

2.5

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1.4

0.70.6

1.7

−1.3

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0.8−1.2

−1

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0.3−0.1

0.7

−0.71.2

0.3

−0.2

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0.1

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−0.4

−0.3

−0.4

0.8

−0.2

0.1 1.2

0.2

0.10.10.5

0.4

−0.2

−0.2

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−0.1

−0.7

0

1.2

1.3

−1.1

−0.6

0

−0.1

−1.6

24


−30

−25

−20

−15

−10

−5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30



1.3

1.3

1.2

1.71.4

1.6

1.8 2.62.1

2.61.8

2

1.6

2.1

1.51.71.8

2.22.2

21.82.3

2.6

3.31.3

2.4

3.6

2.4

3.44.2

2.5

1.8

2.81.7

3.3

4.3

1.1

1.3

1.7

4.7

4.21.6

1.7

1.8

1.9

1.83.4

2.6

1.63.4

2.82.12.4

1.9

3.3

3.6

42.2

2.8

3

2.3

1.4

1.3

2

1.6

1

1.8

2.9

1.6

2.3

2.1

2.4

1.71.81.4

1.31.1

3.3

1.51.71.9

2.2

2.8

1.2

2

1.5

11.50.9

1.9

2.3

1.1 1.2

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1.8

1.5

1.91.1

2.622.9 2.3

1.2

22.2

3.1

1.3

3.4

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1.4

1.3

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1.4

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1.21.6

2.21.13.1

0.9

2.8

1.6

0.9

1.5

1.1

1

1.8

2.5

1.9

1.8 2.7

1.7

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1.5

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1.2

1.21.1

1

1.3

1.3

1.8

2.5

1.4

1.8

2.9

1.9

1.6

25


−30

−25

−20

−15

−10

−5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30



1.4

1.8

1.4

2.32.1

2

1.8 3.13.1

2.62.3

2.5

1.6

2.41.72.51.8

2.52.4

2.72.22.9

2.9

41.3

3.6

4.3

4.1

4.46.2

2.5

2.3

2.92.1

4.2

5.2

1.1

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4.41.5

2.4

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2.72.92.7

2.2

4

3.8

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3

4.8

2.6

2.1

1.6

2.2

2.1

1.1

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3.3

1.3

2.1

2.5

3.5

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1.91.2

3.6

1.32.31.8

2.1

3.7

1.3

3.4

2

1.11.50.8

2.4

2.4

1.4 1.3

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2.4

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2.42 3 2.6

1.1

1.82.3

3.4

1.7

3.6

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2.5

1.8

1.4

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1.7

2.91.4

1.51.9

2.2

1.43.2

1

3

1.8

0.9

1.8

1.2

1.2

2.8

2.6

3.4

2.3 2.9

2.4

32.52.9

1.8

0.9

1.4

1.31.1

1.2

1.8

1.5

3.1

3.2

1.7

2

3.9

3.6

2

26


Nov 30 Dec 05 Dec 10 Dec 15 Dec 20 Dec 25 Dec 30

−25

−20

−15

−10

−5

0

idate

01.12.2018 − 31.12.2018

Cels

ius

Jan 04 Jan 09 Jan 14 Jan 19 Jan 24 Jan 29

−25

−20

−15

−10

−5

0

idate

01.01.2019 − 31.01.2019

Cels

ius

Feb 03 Feb 08 Feb 13 Feb 18 Feb 23 Feb 28

−25

−20

−15

−10

−5

0

idate

01.02.2019 − 28.02.2019

Cels

ius

Min Mean Max Std N

synop: 00,06,12,18 −24.5 −9 3.3 6.7 360

AA25: 12+18,+24,+30,+36 −24.1 −9.8 2.4 6.4 360

ECMWF: 12+18,+24,+30,+36 −23.4 −10.9 0.2 5.9 360

ME SDE RMSE MAE Max.abs.err. N

AA25 − synop −0.9 2 2.1 1.7 8.6 360

ECMWF − synop −2 1.8 2.6 2.3 7.4 360

01.12.2018 − 28.02.2019

SVALBARD LUFTHAVN

27



−15

−10

−5

0

5

idate

01.12.2018 − 31.12.2018

Cels

ius


−15

−10

−5

0

5

idate

01.01.2019 − 31.01.2019

Cels

ius


−15

−10

−5

0

5

idate

01.02.2019 − 28.02.2019

Cels

ius

Min Mean Max Std N

synop: 00,06,12,18 −17.1 −3.2 4.4 4.1 360

AA25: 12+18,+24,+30,+36 −14.5 −2.6 4 3.9 360

ECMWF: 12+18,+24,+30,+36 −13.3 −2.6 4.9 4 360


AA25 − synop 0.5 1 1.2 0.8 6.5 360

ECMWF − synop 0.5 1.1 1.2 0.9 8.3 360

01.12.2018 − 28.02.2019

BJØRNØYA

28



−20

−15

−10

−5

0

5

idate

01.12.2018 − 31.12.2018

Cels

ius


−20

−15

−10

−5

0

5

idate

01.01.2019 − 31.01.2019

Cels

ius


−20

−15

−10

−5

0

5

idate

01.02.2019 − 28.02.2019

Cels

ius

Min Mean Max Std N

synop: 00,06,12,18 −13.7 −2.8 5.5 4.2 360

MEPSctrl: 12+18,+24,+30,+36 −13.9 −2.4 6.1 4.2 360

AA25: 12+18,+24,+30,+36 −14.9 −3 6.2 4.6 360

ECMWF: 12+18,+24,+30,+36 −23.6 −7.2 4 5.9 360


MEPSctrl − synop 0.4 1.5 1.5 1.2 5.3 360

AA25 − synop −0.2 1.6 1.6 1.2 6.4 360

ECMWF − synop −4.4 2.8 5.2 4.4 11.8 360

01.12.2018 − 28.02.2019

TROMSØ

29



−40

−30

−20

−10

0

idate

01.12.2018 − 31.12.2018

Cels

ius


−40

−30

−20

−10

0

idate

01.01.2019 − 31.01.2019

Cels

ius


−40

−30

−20

−10

0

idate

01.02.2019 − 28.02.2019

Cels

ius

Min Mean Max Std N

synop: 00,06,12,18 −39.2 −14.3 6.3 10 360

MEPSctrl: 12+18,+24,+30,+36 −36.5 −14.2 2.1 9 360

AA25: 12+18,+24,+30,+36 −35.5 −14 2.3 8.8 360

ECMWF: 12+18,+24,+30,+36 −29.9 −11 4 7 360


MEPSctrl − synop 0.1 5.1 5.1 3.9 16.5 360

AA25 − synop 0.3 5 5 3.8 16.2 360

ECMWF − synop 3.3 4.9 6 4.3 19.6 360

01.12.2018 − 28.02.2019

KAUTOKEINO

30



−5

0

5

10

idate

01.12.2018 − 31.12.2018

Cels

ius


−5

0

5

10

idate

01.01.2019 − 31.01.2019

Cels

ius


−5

0

5

10

idate

01.02.2019 − 28.02.2019

Cels

ius

Min Mean Max Std N

synop: 00,06,12,18 −8.7 1.7 9.5 3.8 360

MEPSctrl: 12+18,+24,+30,+36 −7.2 1.5 8.5 3.5 360

ECMWF: 12+18,+24,+30,+36 −5.7 2.3 8.4 3.4 360


MEPSctrl − synop −0.2 1.3 1.3 1 5.5 360

ECMWF − synop 0.6 1.2 1.4 1 5.7 360

01.12.2018 − 28.02.2019

ØRLAND III

31



−10

−5

0

5

10

idate

01.12.2018 − 31.12.2018

Cels

ius


−10

−5

0

5

10

idate

01.01.2019 − 31.01.2019

Cels

ius


−10

−5

0

5

10

idate

01.02.2019 − 28.02.2019

Cels

ius

Min Mean Max Std N

synop: 00,06,12,18 −5 4.1 12.3 3 360

MEPSctrl: 12+18,+24,+30,+36 −4.6 2.4 9.2 2.7 360

ECMWF: 12+18,+24,+30,+36 −11 1.6 10 3.6 360


MEPSctrl − synop −1.7 1.4 2.2 1.8 6.7 360

ECMWF − synop −2.5 1.7 3 2.6 10.7 360

01.12.2018 − 28.02.2019

BERGEN − FLORIDA

32



−20

−15

−10

−5

0

5

idate

01.12.2018 − 31.12.2018

Cels

ius


−20

−15

−10

−5

0

5

idate

01.01.2019 − 31.01.2019

Cels

ius


−20

−15

−10

−5

0

5

idate

01.02.2019 − 28.02.2019

Cels

ius

Min Mean Max Std N

synop: 00,06,12,18 −22.6 −6.2 6.2 5.3 360

MEPSctrl: 12+18,+24,+30,+36 −16.2 −7.1 3.2 4.4 360

ECMWF: 12+18,+24,+30,+36 −16.4 −7.9 1.9 4.3 360


MEPSctrl − synop −0.9 2.5 2.7 2 11.1 360

ECMWF − synop −1.7 2.8 3.3 2.7 13.2 360

01.12.2018 − 28.02.2019

FINSEVATN

33



−20

−15

−10

−5

0

5

10

idate

01.12.2018 − 31.12.2018

Cels

ius


−20

−15

−10

−5

0

5

10

idate

01.01.2019 − 31.01.2019

Cels

ius


−20

−15

−10

−5

0

5

10

idate

01.02.2019 − 28.02.2019

Cels

ius

Min Mean Max Std N

synop: 00,06,12,18 −21.5 −5.7 10.6 6.5 360

MEPSctrl: 12+18,+24,+30,+36 −17 −3.9 9.5 5.1 360

ECMWF: 12+18,+24,+30,+36 −21.8 −7.1 6.8 5.9 360


MEPSctrl − synop 1.8 3.8 4.2 3.4 10.3 360

ECMWF − synop −1.4 3.5 3.8 3 10.9 360

01.12.2018 − 28.02.2019

NESBYEN − TODOKK

34



2

4

6

8

10

idate

01.12.2018 − 31.12.2018

Cels

ius


2

4

6

8

10

idate

01.01.2019 − 31.01.2019

Cels

ius


2

4

6

8

10

idate

01.02.2019 − 28.02.2019

Cels

ius

Min Mean Max Std N

synop: 00,06,12,18 1.4 6.5 10.5 1.7 360

MEPSctrl: 12+18,+24,+30,+36 2.5 7 9.9 1.4 360

ECMWF: 12+18,+24,+30,+36 2.7 7.1 10.7 1.5 360


MEPSctrl − synop 0.4 0.8 0.9 0.7 3.9 360

ECMWF − synop 0.6 0.7 0.9 0.7 3 360

01.12.2018 − 28.02.2019

EKOFISK

35



−10

−5

0

5

10

idate

01.12.2018 − 31.12.2018

Cels

ius


−10

−5

0

5

10

idate

01.01.2019 − 31.01.2019

Cels

ius


−10

−5

0

5

10

idate

01.02.2019 − 28.02.2019

Cels

ius

Min Mean Max Std N

synop: 00,06,12,18 −4.3 4.1 11.3 3 360

MEPSctrl: 12+18,+24,+30,+36 −4.8 3.3 9.6 3 360

ECMWF: 12+18,+24,+30,+36 −9.3 3.3 9.4 3.1 360


MEPSctrl − synop −0.8 1.3 1.5 1.2 5.2 360

ECMWF − synop −0.7 1.3 1.5 1.2 5.8 360

01.12.2018 − 28.02.2019

SOLA

36



−4

−2

0

2

4

6

8

idate

01.12.2018 − 31.12.2018

Cels

ius


−4

−2

0

2

4

6

8

idate

01.01.2019 − 31.01.2019

Cels

ius


−4

−2

0

2

4

6

8

idate

01.02.2019 − 28.02.2019

Cels

ius

Min Mean Max Std N

synop: 00,06,12,18 −5.4 2.3 8.3 2.7 360

MEPSctrl: 12+18,+24,+30,+36 −3.8 2.3 7.9 2.4 360

ECMWF: 12+18,+24,+30,+36 −4.3 2.4 8.4 2.6 360


MEPSctrl − synop 0 1.2 1.2 0.9 5.2 360

ECMWF − synop 0.1 1.2 1.2 0.9 4.4 360

01.12.2018 − 28.02.2019

FÆRDER FYR

37



−15

−10

−5

0

5

10

idate

01.12.2018 − 31.12.2018

Cels

ius


−15

−10

−5

0

5

10

idate

01.01.2019 − 31.01.2019

Cels

ius


−15

−10

−5

0

5

10

idate

01.02.2019 − 28.02.2019

Cels

ius

Min Mean Max Std N

synop: 00,06,12,18 −13.1 −1.2 11.1 4 360

MEPSctrl: 12+18,+24,+30,+36 −12.4 −1.2 7.9 3.8 360

ECMWF: 12+18,+24,+30,+36 −14.9 −2.6 6.6 4.1 360


MEPSctrl − synop 0 1.8 1.8 1.3 6.1 360

ECMWF − synop −1.4 1.8 2.2 1.7 7.2 360

01.12.2018 − 28.02.2019

OSLO − BLINDERN

38

Dec 2018 to Feb 2019 Post processed temperature 2m (YrPP)

Lead time (hour)

Mean Error

4 9 15 22 29 36 43 50 57 64

−1.5

−1.0

−0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

262 Nor. stations 00+4,+5,...,+66

MEPSctrl YrPP

Lead time (hour)


4 9 15 22 29 36 43 50 57 64

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

262 Nor. stations 00+4,+5,...,+66

Lead time (hour)

Mean Absolute Error

4 9 15 22 29 36 43 50 57 64

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

262 Nor. stations 00+4,+5,...,+66

Lead time (hour)

Mean Error

4 9 15 22 29 36 43 50 57 64

−1.5

−1.0

−0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

40 Nor. coastal stations 00+4,+5,...,+66

MEPSctrl YrPP

Lead time (hour)


4 9 15 22 29 36 43 50 57 64

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0


Lead time (hour)

Mean Absolute Error

4 9 15 22 29 36 43 50 57 64

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0


Lead time (hour)

Mean Error

4 9 15 22 29 36 43 50 57 64

−1.5

−1.0

−0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

131 Nor. inland stations 00+4,+5,...,+66

MEPSctrl YrPP

Lead time (hour)


4 9 15 22 29 36 43 50 57 64

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0


Lead time (hour)

Mean Absolute Error

4 9 15 22 29 36 43 50 57 64

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0


39

Dec 2018 to Feb 2019 Wind speed 10m

Lead time (hour)

Mean Error

3 9 15 24 33 42 51 60

−1.5

−1.0

−0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

219 Nor. stations 00+3,+6,...,+66

MEPSctrl ECMWF

Lead time (hour)


3 9 15 24 33 42 51 60

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

219 Nor. stations 00+3,+6,...,+66

Lead time (hour)

Mean Absolute Error

3 9 15 24 33 42 51 60

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

219 Nor. stations 00+3,+6,...,+66

Exceedance threshold (m/s)

3 5 8 11 14 17 21

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

Hit Rate

00+18,+24,+30,+36295 Nor. stations

MEPSctrl ECMWF


3 5 8 11 14 17 21

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

False Alarm Rate

00+18,+24,+30,+36


3 5 8 11 14 17 21

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

False Alarm Ratio

00+18,+24,+30,+36


3 5 8 11 14 17 21

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

Equitable Threat Score

00+18,+24,+30,+36295 Nor. stations

MEPSctrl ECMWF


3 5 8 11 14 17 21

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

Hansen−Kuiper Skill Score

00+18,+24,+30,+36


3 5 8 11 14 17 21

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

Heidke Skill Score

00+18,+24,+30,+36

40


Lead time (hour)

Mean Error

3 9 15 24 33 42 51 60

−1.5

−1.0

−0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0


AA25 ECMWF

Lead time (hour)


3 9 15 24 33 42 51 60

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0


Lead time (hour)

Mean Absolute Error

3 9 15 24 33 42 51 60

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5



3 5 8 11 14 17 21

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

Hit Rate

00+18,+24,+30,+3614 Svalbard stations

AA25 ECMWF


3 5 8 11 14 17 21

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

False Alarm Rate

00+18,+24,+30,+36


3 5 8 11 14 17 21

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

False Alarm Ratio

00+18,+24,+30,+36


3 5 8 11 14 17 21

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0


00+18,+24,+30,+3614 Svalbard stations

AA25 ECMWF


3 5 8 11 14 17 21

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0


00+18,+24,+30,+36


3 5 8 11 14 17 21

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

Heidke Skill Score

00+18,+24,+30,+36

41


Lead time (hour)

Mean Error

3 9 15 24 33 42 51 60

−1.5

−1.0

−0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0


AA25

MEPSctrl

ECMWF

Lead time (hour)


3 9 15 24 33 42 51 60

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0


Lead time (hour)

Mean Absolute Error

3 9 15 24 33 42 51 60

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5



3 5 8 11 14 17 21

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

Hit Rate

00+18,+24,+30,+3686 North Scand. stations

AA25

MEPSctrl

ECMWF


3 5 8 11 14 17 21

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

False Alarm Rate

00+18,+24,+30,+36


3 5 8 11 14 17 21

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

False Alarm Ratio

00+18,+24,+30,+36


3 5 8 11 14 17 21

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0


00+18,+24,+30,+3686 North Scand. stations

AA25

MEPSctrl

ECMWF


3 5 8 11 14 17 21

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0


00+18,+24,+30,+36


3 5 8 11 14 17 21

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

Heidke Skill Score

00+18,+24,+30,+36

42



−5

−4

−3

−2

−1

0

1

200+24,+30,+36,+42 UTC

ECMWF AM25 MEPSctrl



−5

−4

−3

−2

−1

0

1



−5

−4

−3

−2

−1

0

1

210 Norwegian mountainous stations

Mean Error

43



1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

00+24,+30,+36,+42 UTC

ECMWF AM25 MEPSctrl



1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5



1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5



44



1

2

3

4

5

00+24,+30,+36,+42 UTC

ECMWF AM25 MEPSctrl



1

2

3

4

5



1

2

3

4

5


Mean Absolute Error

45


0.0

1.5

3.4

5.4

7.9

10.7

13.8



0.5

0.1

−0.2

0.5

0.6

−0.6

−0.5

0.6

0.1

−0.1

−1.20.2

−0.4

−1.4

−0.4

−0.5

−0.3

−1.4

0.1

0

0.6

−0.2

−0.3

1.6

0

−0.70.6

0.2

−1

−1.30.6

−1.2

−0.8

−0.5−0.6

−0.3−0.1

0.8−0.5

−0.8−0.6−2.1−0.1

0

0.4

0.5−0.3

−0.6

−0.2

0.9

−0.3

0.5

0.810.9

1.6

2.2

−1.71.3

0.3−3.8

0.3

0.1−0.2−0.2

00.6

0.70.80.1

−0.6

0

0.2

−0.5

1.50.1

−0.2

−0.5

0.6

−0.2

−0.6

1

−0.7

−0.1

0.81.6

0.5

0.4

−0.8

1.1

0

−1.7

−1.4

0.4

−1.3

−0.8

2.11.3

1.5

0.2

−1.2

0.7−1.5

0.3

0.7

1.2

−0.1

−1.6

2.6

−3.7

0.2

0.52.30.4

0.3

2.2

0.9

2.2

0.9

1.3−0.31.3

0.4−0.5

−0.3−0.4

−1−0.4

−0.11.2

0.2 0.40.6

0.80.80.8

0.2−2.7

0.6−0.8

0.5

2.6

0.2

0.9

−3.5

−2.30.1

2.81.6

0.8−0.7

1.8−0.2

0.8

0.4

−0.3

0

−1

−0.50.9−2.8

−1.2 −2.30.3

−0.4

0.6

−4.2

0.80.1

0.6

0.4

−1.41.1

0.9

1.5

1

1.4

1.5

0.1

0.9

−0.4

0.7

0.2

−0.3

0.4

0.3

0.5

0.6

−0.1

1.6−1.1

−1.1

1.3

1.6

2.6

1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0

0.2

−1.70.5

0.8

0

0.5

0.5

0.7

2

2.1

0.6

2

46


0.0

1.5

3.4

5.4

7.9

10.7

13.8



1

1.1

0.8

1.1

2.5

1.6

1.4

1.5

0.8

0.8

1.80.9

0.9

2

1

1.2

0.9

1.1

1.3

1.2

0.8

0.7

0.9

1.4

1

2.2

1.61.2

1.61.4

1.82

1.4

20.9

1

1.11.1

1.71.3

1.20.91.40.8

0.9

0.9

0.91.3

1.2

1.2

1.5

1.4

1.2

2.82.42.7

2.2

2.4

3.92.41.1

2.71.7

1.12.21.5

2.42.7

1.11.20.9

0.9

1.2

1.2

2

2.91.5

1.1

1.3

1

1.10.8

1.5

2.8

1.9

1.9

2.73.62.6

1.91.2

2.2

1.9

1.9

1.7

2.4

1.8

1.7

1.7

2 1.7

2.2

1.2

2.2

2.11.9

1.81.8

1.6

3.12.3

2.8

4.62.4

1.72.52.5

1.7

2.2

2.7

2.4

2.1

2.11.81.9

2.42.2

2.72.1

2.91.8

23.1

2.2 32.6

2.52.12.2

23.8

22.2

3.1

2.3

1.9

3.3

3.2

3.62.7

2.533.6 2.8

2.72.2

1.8

2.8

1.8

1.7

1.6

3.32.53.8

2.5 2.92.4

2.4

1.3

2.7

2.13 2.9

1.7

3.12.6

2.1

1.3

2

1.9

1.7

0.9

0.9

1

0.8

0.8

1.5

1

0.8

0.8

2

1.3

2.91.4

2.8

2.5

1.7

2.3

1.7

2.1

1.9

1.9

1.1

1.1

3.70.9

2

1.3

1.2

1.91.1

2.8

2.6

1.2

3.2

47


0.0

1.5

3.4

5.4

7.9

10.7

13.8



−0.8

−0.5

−0.3

−0.6

−0.3−0.1

0.8−0.5

−0.8−0.6−2.1

−0.1

0

−0.3

−0.6

−0.2

−0.3

0.5

0.8

10.9

1.6

2.2

−1.71.3

0.3

−3.80.3

0.1

−0.2−0.2

00.6

0.70.80.1

−0.6

0

0.2

−0.5

1.50.1

−0.2

0.8

−0.5

0.6

−0.4−0.1

−0.2

1.8

−0.6

0.6

1

−0.73.30.8

0.7−0.8

1.1

0.60.30.5

−0.8

0.9

0.4

1.8

−0.80.6

−0.1

−0.2

1.9

−0.7

0.1

1.4

−1.7

−1.22.30.4−2.1

−1.1−0.6

−1.1−0.7

−0.3

−0.41.2

0.4

0.6

−0.31.10.5

−0.30.4

1.1

−1.2

−0.40.3

0.7−0.1

0

2

−0.5

−2.1

−0.40.7

−1

−0.1

−0.3

0.7−2.4

−4

10.2

0.3−0.4

0.81.6

−1

0.5

0.4

−0.8

1.1

0

−1.7

−1.4

0.4

−1.3

−0.8

2.11.3

1.5

0.2

−1.2

−1.5

1.2

1

1.4

1.5

1.4

0.8

0.6

1.8

0.2

0

0.5

1.1−0.3

0.4

0.7

48


0.0

1.5

3.4

5.4

7.9

10.7

13.8



2

0.9

1.4

1

1.11.1

1.71.3

1.20.91.4

0.8

0.9

0.9

1.3

1.2

1.2

1.4

1.2

2.82.42.7

2.2

2.4

3.92.4

1.12.7

1.7

1.12.21.5

2.42.7

1.11.20.9

0.9

1.2

1.2

2

2.91.5

1.1

2.1

1.3

1

1.91.1

1.1

1.9

0.8

1.3

1.5

2.83.42.2

1.31.6

1.1

1.81.21.81.7

1.7

2.6

2.6

1.41.6

2.22.3

2.3

2.6

1.6

1.4

1.9

1.32.21.72.2

1.42

1.61.9

1.71.7

2.2

2.2

2.3

2.62.21.4

2.91.62.4

2

22.8

2.8 2.3

1.9

3.2

1.4

3.5

1.81.2

1.9

1.9

2.4

1.41.8

2.7

2.73.5

2.5 1.9

3.62.6

2

1.9

1.2

2.2

1.9

1.9

1.7

2.4

1.8

1.7

1.7

2 1.7

2.2

1.2

2.2

2.11.9

1.6

2

1.9

1.7

1.3

2.2

1.5

2.6

1.4

1.5

0.9

1.8

1.5

0.8

49


0.0

1.5

3.4

5.4

7.9

10.7

13.8



−0.8

−0.5

−0.3

−0.6

−0.3−0.1

0.8−0.5

−0.8−0.6−2.1

−0.1

0

0.4

0.5

−0.3

−0.6

−0.2

0.9

−0.3

0.5

0.8

10.9

1.6

2.2

−1.71.3

0.3

−3.8

0.3

0.1

−0.2−0.2

00.6

0.70.8

0.1

−0.6

0

0.2

−0.5

1.5

0.1

−0.2

0.8

−0.5

0.6

−0.4

−0.1

−0.2

1.8

−0.6

0.6

1

−0.73.30.8

0.7−0.8

1.1

0.60.30.5

−0.8

0.9

0.4

1.8

−0.8

0.6−0.2

1.9

1.2

0.4

0.6

−0.31.1

0.5

−0.3

0.7−0.1

0

2

−0.40.7

−1

−0.1

0.7−2.4

−4

10.2

0.3−0.4

0.81.6

−1

0.5

0.4

−0.8

1.1

−1.7

0.4

−1.3

−0.8

2.1 1.3

1.5

0.7−1.5

0

−0.1

1.1−0.3

0.4

−0.4

0.7

0.7

0.4

1.6

1.3

2.6

1

50


0.0

1.5

3.4

5.4

7.9

10.7

13.8



2

0.9

1.4

1

1.11.1

1.71.3

1.20.91.4

0.8

0.9

0.9

0.9

1.3

1.2

1.2

1.5

1.4

1.2

2.8

2.42.7

2.2

2.4

3.92.4

1.1

2.7

1.7

1.1

2.21.5

2.42.7

1.11.2

0.9

0.9

1.2

1.2

2

2.91.5

1.1

2.1

1.3

1

1.91.1

1.1

1.9

0.8

1.3

1.5

2.83.42.2

1.31.6

1.1

1.81.21.8

1.7

1.7

2.6

2.6

1.4

1.62.3

2.3

2.2

2.2

2.3

2.62.2 1.4

2.9

2.8 2.3

1.9

3.2

1.81.2

1.9

1.9

1.41.8

2.7

2.73.5

2.51.9

3.62.6

2

1.9

1.2

2.2

1.9

1.7

1.8

1.7

1.7

2 1.7

2.2

2.11.9

1.5

1.1

11.8

1.5

1

0.8

0.8

1

2.9

2.5

2.3

1.7

51



0

5

10

15

20

25

idate

01.12.2018 − 31.12.2018

m/s


0

5

10

15

20

25

idate

01.01.2019 − 31.01.2019

m/s


0

5

10

15

20

25

idate

01.02.2019 − 28.02.2019

m/s

Min Mean Max Std N

synop: 00,06,12,18 0.4 6.3 19.8 3.2 360

AA25: 12+18,+24,+30,+36 0.3 6.4 27.3 3.7 360

ECMWF: 12+18,+24,+30,+36 0.2 3.6 11.5 1.7 360


AA25 − synop 0.2 2.8 2.8 2 11.4 360

ECMWF − synop −2.7 2.1 3.4 2.9 10.7 360

01.12.2018 − 28.02.2019

SVALBARD LUFTHAVN

52



0

5

10

15

20

idate

01.12.2018 − 31.12.2018

m/s


0

5

10

15

20

idate

01.01.2019 − 31.01.2019

m/s


0

5

10

15

20

idate

01.02.2019 − 28.02.2019

m/s

Min Mean Max Std N

synop: 00,06,12,18 0.9 8 22.4 3.4 360

AA25: 12+18,+24,+30,+36 0.6 8.4 22 3.6 360

ECMWF: 12+18,+24,+30,+36 1.1 7.9 20.2 3.3 360


AA25 − synop 0.3 2.4 2.4 1.8 10.8 360

ECMWF − synop −0.1 1.8 1.8 1.4 7 360

01.12.2018 − 28.02.2019

BJØRNØYA

53



0

5

10

15

idate

01.12.2018 − 31.12.2018

m/s


0

5

10

15

idate

01.01.2019 − 31.01.2019

m/s


0

5

10

15

idate

01.02.2019 − 28.02.2019

m/s

Min Mean Max Std N

synop: 00,06,12,18 0.1 3.9 11.3 2.4 360

MEPSctrl: 12+18,+24,+30,+36 0.1 4.8 15.6 3.2 360

AA25: 12+18,+24,+30,+36 0.2 4.1 13.8 2.7 360

ECMWF: 12+18,+24,+30,+36 0.3 2.5 7.5 1.2 360


MEPSctrl − synop 0.8 2.4 2.5 1.8 9.1 360

AA25 − synop 0.1 2.2 2.2 1.6 8.8 360

ECMWF − synop −1.5 1.9 2.4 1.8 6.8 360

01.12.2018 − 28.02.2019

TROMSØ

54



0

5

10

15

20

idate

01.12.2018 − 31.12.2018

m/s


0

5

10

15

20

idate

01.01.2019 − 31.01.2019

m/s


0

5

10

15

20

idate

01.02.2019 − 28.02.2019

m/s

Min Mean Max Std N

synop: 00,06,12,18 0 7.8 20.2 3.9 360

MEPSctrl: 12+18,+24,+30,+36 0.4 7.7 18.5 3.6 360

AA25: 12+18,+24,+30,+36 0.7 7.7 17.7 3.4 360

ECMWF: 12+18,+24,+30,+36 0.7 7.5 17 3.1 360


MEPSctrl − synop −0.1 2.9 2.9 2.2 11 360

AA25 − synop −0.1 2.9 2.9 2.2 10.3 360

ECMWF − synop −0.3 2.8 2.8 2.2 9.4 360

01.12.2018 − 28.02.2019

SLETTNES FYR

55



0

5

10

15

20

idate

01.12.2018 − 31.12.2018

m/s


0

5

10

15

20

idate

01.01.2019 − 31.01.2019

m/s


0

5

10

15

20

idate

01.02.2019 − 28.02.2019

m/s

Min Mean Max Std N

synop: 00,06,12,18 1.1 8.1 20.8 3.6 360

MEPSctrl: 12+18,+24,+30,+36 0.1 6.6 16.6 3.3 360

ECMWF: 12+18,+24,+30,+36 0.6 8.1 18.5 3.4 360


MEPSctrl − synop −1.5 2.2 2.6 2.1 7 360

ECMWF − synop 0 2 2 1.5 9.2 360

01.12.2018 − 28.02.2019

ØRLAND III

56



0

5

10

15

20

idate

01.12.2018 − 31.12.2018

m/s


0

5

10

15

20

idate

01.01.2019 − 31.01.2019

m/s


0

5

10

15

20

idate

01.02.2019 − 28.02.2019

m/s

Min Mean Max Std N

synop: 00,06,12,18 0.5 9.2 22.3 4.4 360

MEPSctrl: 12+18,+24,+30,+36 1.1 9.3 21 4 360

ECMWF: 12+18,+24,+30,+36 1 9.1 20.3 3.7 360


MEPSctrl − synop 0.1 2.8 2.8 2 12.8 360

ECMWF − synop −0.1 2.5 2.5 1.8 11.7 360

01.12.2018 − 28.02.2019

YTTERØYANE FYR

57



0

5

10

15

20

idate

01.12.2018 − 31.12.2018

m/s


0

5

10

15

20

idate

01.01.2019 − 31.01.2019

m/s


0

5

10

15

20

idate

01.02.2019 − 28.02.2019

m/s

Min Mean Max Std N

synop: 00,06,12,18 0.1 7 22.3 4.5 299

MEPSctrl: 12+18,+24,+30,+36 1.2 7.3 22.3 4.2 360

ECMWF: 12+18,+24,+30,+36 0.2 3.8 10.6 1.8 360


MEPSctrl − synop 0 2.6 2.6 2 8.4 299

ECMWF − synop −3.3 3.2 4.6 3.7 11.9 299

01.12.2018 − 28.02.2019

FINSEVATN

58



0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

idate

01.12.2018 − 31.12.2018

m/s


0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

idate

01.01.2019 − 31.01.2019

m/s


0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

idate

01.02.2019 − 28.02.2019

m/s

Min Mean Max Std N

synop: 00,06,12,18 0 0.9 6 1 360

MEPSctrl: 12+18,+24,+30,+36 0.1 1.2 6.9 0.8 360

ECMWF: 12+18,+24,+30,+36 0.1 1.5 5.5 1 360


MEPSctrl − synop 0.3 1 1 0.7 4.8 360

ECMWF − synop 0.6 0.9 1.1 0.8 3.9 360

01.12.2018 − 28.02.2019

NESBYEN − TODOKK

59



0

5

10

15

20

idate

01.12.2018 − 31.12.2018

m/s


0

5

10

15

20

idate

01.01.2019 − 31.01.2019

m/s


0

5

10

15

20

idate

01.02.2019 − 28.02.2019

m/s

Min Mean Max Std N

synop: 00,06,12,18 1 8.7 22.1 3.7 359

MEPSctrl: 12+18,+24,+30,+36 0.2 9.4 22.6 4.1 360

ECMWF: 12+18,+24,+30,+36 0.8 9.1 21.6 3.9 360


MEPSctrl − synop 0.7 1.9 2 1.5 9.7 359

ECMWF − synop 0.5 1.7 1.7 1.3 9.4 359

01.12.2018 − 28.02.2019

EKOFISK

60



0

5

10

15

20

idate

01.12.2018 − 31.12.2018

m/s


0

5

10

15

20

idate

01.01.2019 − 31.01.2019

m/s


0

5

10

15

20

idate

01.02.2019 − 28.02.2019

m/s

Min Mean Max Std N

synop: 00,06,12,18 0 5.6 19.3 3.3 360

MEPSctrl: 12+18,+24,+30,+36 0.1 4.2 15.3 2.7 360

ECMWF: 12+18,+24,+30,+36 0.2 4.7 14.1 2.4 360


MEPSctrl − synop −1.4 1.7 2.2 1.7 8.6 360

ECMWF − synop −0.9 1.6 1.8 1.5 5.6 360

01.12.2018 − 28.02.2019

SOLA

61



0

5

10

15

20

idate

01.12.2018 − 31.12.2018

m/s


0

5

10

15

20

idate

01.01.2019 − 31.01.2019

m/s


0

5

10

15

20

idate

01.02.2019 − 28.02.2019

m/s

Min Mean Max Std N

synop: 00,06,12,18 0.5 7.3 19.5 3.5 360

MEPSctrl: 12+18,+24,+30,+36 0.5 7 15.9 3.3 360

ECMWF: 12+18,+24,+30,+36 0.3 6.7 15.2 3.2 360


MEPSctrl − synop −0.2 2.1 2.1 1.6 9.1 360

ECMWF − synop −0.6 1.8 1.9 1.5 8.2 360

01.12.2018 − 28.02.2019

FÆRDER FYR

62

Dec 2018 to Feb 2019 Post processed maximum mean wind speed 10m (YrPP)

Lead time (hour)

Mean Error

3 9 15 24 33 42 51 60

−1.5

−1.0

−0.5

0.0

0.5

204 Nor. stations 00+3,+6,...,+66

MEPSctrlYrPP

Lead time (hour)


3 9 15 24 33 42 51 60

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

204 Nor. stations 00+3,+6,...,+66

Lead time (hour)

Mean Absolute Error

3 9 15 24 33 42 51 60

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

204 Nor. stations 00+3,+6,...,+66


3 5 8 11 14 17 21

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

Hit Rate

208 Nor. stations 00+18,+24,+30,+36


3 5 8 11 14 17 21

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

False Alarm Rate

208 Nor. stations 00+18,+24,+30,+36


3 5 8 11 14 17 21

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

False Alarm Ratio

208 Nor. stations 00+18,+24,+30,+36


3 5 8 11 14 17 21

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0


208 Nor. stations 00+18,+24,+30,+36

MEPSctrlYrPP


3 5 8 11 14 17 21

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0


208 Nor. stations 00+18,+24,+30,+36


3 5 8 11 14 17 21

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

Heidke Skill Score

208 Nor. stations 00+18,+24,+30,+36

63

Dec 2018 to Feb 2019 Wind gust (FG) and wind speed in 925 hpa (FF.925)

Lead time (hour)

Mean Error

3 9 15 24 33 42 51 60

−2

−1

0

1

2

3

205 Nor. stations 00+3,+6,...,+66

MEPSctrlFGMEPSctrlFF.925

Lead time (hour)


3 9 15 24 33 42 51 60

1

2

3

4

5

205 Nor. stations 00+3,+6,...,+66

Lead time (hour)

Mean Absolute Error

3 9 15 24 33 42 51 60

1

2

3

4

5

205 Nor. stations 00+3,+6,...,+66


3 5 8 11 14 17 21

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

Hit Rate

209 Nor. stations 00+18,+24,+30,+36


3 5 8 11 14 17 21

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

False Alarm Rate

209 Nor. stations 00+18,+24,+30,+36


3 5 8 11 14 17 21

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

False Alarm Ratio

209 Nor. stations 00+18,+24,+30,+36


3 5 8 11 14 17 21

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0


209 Nor. stations 00+18,+24,+30,+36

MEPSctrlFGMEPSctrlFF.925


3 5 8 11 14 17 21

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0


209 Nor. stations 00+18,+24,+30,+36


3 5 8 11 14 17 21

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

Heidke Skill Score

209 Nor. stations 00+18,+24,+30,+36

64

Dec 2018 to Feb 2019 12 hour precipitation

Lead time (hour)

Mean Error

18 30 42 54 66

−1.5

−1.0

−0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

175 Nor. stations 00+18,+30,...,+66

MEPSctrl ECMWF

Lead time (hour)


18 30 42 54 66

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

175 Nor. stations 00+18,+30,...,+66

Lead time (hour)

Mean Absolute Error

18 30 42 54 66

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

175 Nor. stations 00+18,+30,...,+66

Exceedance threshold (mm)

0 0.1 1 2 5 10 15 20

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

Hit Rate

183 Nor. stations 00+18,+30,+42,+54,+66

MEPSctrl ECMWF


0 0.1 1 2 5 10 15 20

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

False Alarm Rate

183 Nor. stations 00+18,+30,+42,+54,+66


0 0.1 1 2 5 10 15 20

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

False Alarm Ratio

183 Nor. stations 00+18,+30,+42,+54,+66


0 0.1 1 2 5 10 15 20

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0


183 Nor. stations 00+18,+30,+42,+54,+66

MEPSctrl ECMWF


0 0.1 1 2 5 10 15 20

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0


183 Nor. stations 00+18,+30,+42,+54,+66


0 0.1 1 2 5 10 15 20

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

Heidke Skill Score

183 Nor. stations 00+18,+30,+42,+54,+66

65

Dec 2018 to Feb 2019 Daily precipitation


−4

−2

0

2

4

00+30 UTC

ECMWF AM25 MEPSctrl



−4

−2

0

2

4

12 coastal stations


−4

−2

0

2

4

29 stations more than 500 m above sea level


−4

−2

0

2

4

16 stations with daily mean precipitation > 4 mm

Mean Error

66



0

2

4

6

8

10

00+30 UTC

ECMWF AM25 MEPSctrl



0

2

4

6

8

10

12 coastal stations


0

2

4

6

8

10



0

2

4

6

8

10



67



0

1

2

3

4

5

6

700+30 UTC

ECMWF AM25 MEPSctrl



0

1

2

3

4

5

6

712 coastal stations


0

1

2

3

4

5

6



0

1

2

3

4

5

6


Mean Absolute Error

68


012

4

7

10

15

20

25

30



0.4

0.2

0.7

0.4

1.1

0.3

0.7

0.3

0.3

−0.4

0.6

0.8

0.4

0.3

0.4

0

0.3

0.9

0.30.1

0

0

−0.20.7

0.2

0.8−1.8

0.10.2−0.1

0.3

0.60.30.5

0.2

0.21.1

0.4

0.2

−0.70.4

0.5

0.7−1.30.9

−0.8

0.61.2

2.70.3

−0.1

0.1

0.1

0.2−1.30

0.51.5

0−0.5−0.3

−0.1

0.5

0.10.10.2

0.4

0.4

0

0.2

0.4

0.1

2.5

−0.72.52

−0.6

−0.5

−0.3

−0.4

−0.1

−1.7

0.5

0

0.6

0.1 0.1

0.4

−0.4

0.71.50.1

0.3

−0.5

−1.3

0.1

−0.6

3.52.1

0.1−0.5

0

−0.9

0

−0.2

0.7

0.5

−0.4−0.9

1.8−1.1 0.2

0.3

0.5

−3.8

−0.2−1.9

−1.7

−0.6−1−1.2

−0.2

0.3

0.8

1.9

1

−1−0.3

0.5

0.4

0.5

0.5

0

0.3

0.6

0.4

0.3

0.4

0.1

0

−0.1

0.3

0.4

0.3

0.8

0.6

0.5

0.2

0.2

0.6

0.4

0.3

−0.5

0

0.5

0.2

3

69


012

4

7

10

15

20

25

30



1.1

1.7

1.8

1.6

2.2

1.1

1.2

0.9

0.8

2.1

0.9

1.8

1.2

1.3

1.1

1.8

2

1.52.5

1.3

1.8

22

1.3

2.13.61.51.61.9

1

1.21.61.3

0.8

1.42

1.5

1.7

1.61

2.4

1.32.31.5

3.4

2.42.9

6.40.9

1.1

1.4

1

12.21

1.22.9

1.31.91.9

1.3

1.5

11.41.9

2.3

1.5

2.1

1.4

1.7

1.5

5.2

5.17.25.5

8.5

3.2

2.63.2

2.2

5.2

1.3

2.9

1.3

1.82.4

2.4

1.9

2.833.1

2.3

3.4

53.5

2.8

5.6

5.2

2.32.9 3.6

4.1

3.6

2.4

2.8

3.53.7

3.4

3.13.5 2.8

2.4

3.5

5.9

2.85.8

3.8

3.33.74

3.1

2.3

2.2

3.4

2.4

2.73.4

1.4

0.9

1.1

1.4

3.6

1.3

0.9

1.2

2.7

1.1

1.5

1.2

1.2

1

1

1

1.8

1.8

1.4

2.5

1.9

1.5

0.8

1

1.7

1.7

1.5

1.4

5.3

70


012

4

7

10

15

20

25

30



0.3

0.9

0.1

0

0

−0.20.7

0.2

0.8−1.8

0.10.2−0.1

0.3

0.60.30.5

1.1

0.4

−0.7

0.4

0.5

0.7

−1.30.9

−0.8

0.6

1.2

2.70.3

−0.1

0.1

0.1

0.2−1.3

0

0.51.5

0−0.5

−0.3

−0.1

0.5

0.10.10.2

0.4

0.4

0

0.9

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.10.40.8

−10.8

0

0.8−1.80.9

0.3

−0.1

0.4

0.8

0.4−0.7

0

−0.5

0

0.2

0.4−0.2

0.5

−0.7

−0.9

−0.2

−0.5

0.20.2

−0.3

−1.3

2.2

3.4−0.1−0.3−0.4 1.7

−0.60.5

0.6

−1.1

0.9

0.2−0.3

−0.8

−1.4

1

−1.2

−0.4 0.60

−0.3

−2.1 2.5−1

−0.8−0.7

2.52

−0.6

−0.5

−0.3

−0.4

−0.1

−1.7

0.5

0

0.6

0.1 0.1

0.4

−0.4

1.50.1

0.2

71


012

4

7

10

15

20

25

30



1.5

3

2.5

1.3

1.8

22

1.3

2.13.61.51.6

1.9

1.21.61.3

2

1.5

1.6

1

2.4

1.3

2.31.5

3.4

2.42.9

6.40.9

1.1

1.4

1

12.2

1

1.22.9

1.31.91.9

1.3

1.5

11.41.9

2.3

1.5

2.12.4

1.4

1.6

1.7

1.52.12.4

3.43.2

2.6

2.88.62.5

1.8

2

2.6

2.9

2.72.8

2.4

3.32.6

3.1

3.63.13.2

3.4

2.9

3.33.4

3.73.9

3.6

3.9

2.6

4.43.13.82.5 2.6

3.34.5

3.9

5.8

3.9

42.6

3.3

5.1

2.2

3.9

4.8 3.62.6

4

5.7 5.27.5

4.15.17.25.5

8.5

3.2

2.6

3.2

2.2

5.2

1.3

2.9

1.3

1.8 2.4

2.4

1.9

2.833.1

1.5

72


012

4

7

10

15

20

25

30



0.3

0.9

0.1

0

0

−0.2

0.70.2

0.8

−1.80.1

0.2

−0.1

0.3

0.60.30.5

0.2

0.2

1.1

0.4

0.2

−0.7

0.4

0.5

0.7

−1.30.9

−0.8

0.6

1.2

2.70.3

−0.1

0.1

0.1

0.2−1.3

0

0.51.5

0−0.5

−0.3

−0.1

0.5

0.10.10.2

0.4

0.4

0

0.9

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.10.40.8

−10.8

0

0.8−1.8

0.9

0.3

−0.1

0.4

0.8

−0.7

0

−0.5

−0.9

−0.3

−1.3

2.2

3.4−0.1−0.3

−0.41.7

−0.6

−0.3

−0.8

−1.4

1

0.6

0

−0.3

−2.1 2.5−1

−0.8−0.7

2.52

−0.6

−0.5

−0.3

−0.4

−0.1

0.5

0

0.6

0.1 0.1

0.4

0.71.50.1

1

0.2

0.3

0.8

73


012

4

7

10

15

20

25

30



1.5

3

2.5

1.3

1.8

22

1.3

2.1

3.61.5

1.61.9

1

1.21.61.3

0.8

1.4

2

1.5

1.7

1.6

1

2.4

1.3

2.31.5

3.4

2.4

2.9

6.40.9

1.1

1.4

1

12.2

1

1.22.9

1.31.9

1.9

1.3

1.5

11.41.9

2.3

1.5

2.1

2.4

1.4

1.6

1.7

1.52.12.4

3.4 3.2

2.6

2.88.62.5

1.8

2

2.6

2.9

2.8

2.4

3.3

2.9

3.6

3.9

2.6

4.43.13.82.5

2.6

3.3

2.6

3.3

5.1

2.2

3.62.6

4

5.7 5.27.5

4.15.17.25.5

8.5

3.2

2.6

3.2

2.2

1.3

2.9

1.3

1.8 2.4

2.4

2.833.1

1.9

1.5

1

1.8

74


Dec 05 Dec 10 Dec 15 Dec 20 Dec 25 Dec 30

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

idate

01.12.2018 − 31.12.2018

mm


0

2

4

6

8

10

12

idate

01.01.2019 − 31.01.2019

mm


0

2

4

6

8

10

12

idate

01.02.2019 − 28.02.2019

mm

Min Mean Max Std N

AA25: 12+18,+30 0 0.7 11.6 1.7 180

ECMWF: 12+18,+30 0 0.8 10.9 1.5 180

01.12.2018 − 28.02.2019

SVALBARD LUFTHAVN

75



0

5

10

15

idate

01.12.2018 − 31.12.2018

mm


0

5

10

15

idate

01.01.2019 − 31.01.2019

mm


0

5

10

15

idate

01.02.2019 − 28.02.2019

mm

Min Mean Max Std N

synop: 06,18 0 0.7 16.6 1.9 180

AA25: 12+18,+30 0 1 16.5 2 180

ECMWF: 12+18,+30 0 1 14.8 1.7 180


AA25 − synop 0.3 1.9 2 0.8 15.3 180

ECMWF − synop 0.3 1 1 0.6 6.5 180

01.12.2018 − 28.02.2019

BJØRNØYA

76



0

5

10

15

idate

01.12.2018 − 31.12.2018

mm


0

5

10

15

idate

01.01.2019 − 31.01.2019

mm


0

5

10

15

idate

01.02.2019 − 28.02.2019

mm

Min Mean Max Std N

synop: 06,18 0 2.1 14.4 3 180

MEPSctrl: 12+18,+30 0 1.7 16.2 2.9 180

AA25: 12+18,+30 0 1.8 18 3 180

ECMWF: 12+18,+30 0 2.1 18 3.4 180


MEPSctrl − synop −0.4 2.4 2.4 1.4 9.5 180

AA25 − synop −0.3 2.4 2.4 1.4 13.2 180

ECMWF − synop 0 2.3 2.3 1.2 9.2 180

01.12.2018 − 28.02.2019

TROMSØ

77



0

5

10

15

20

25

30

idate

01.12.2018 − 31.12.2018

mm


0

5

10

15

20

25

30

idate

01.01.2019 − 31.01.2019

mm


0

5

10

15

20

25

30

idate

01.02.2019 − 28.02.2019

mm

Min Mean Max Std N

synop: 06,18 0 2 33.5 4.1 180

MEPSctrl: 12+18,+30 0 1.5 19.5 2.6 180

AA25: 12+18,+30 0 1.7 19.9 2.9 180

ECMWF: 12+18,+30 0 2.8 18 3.7 180


MEPSctrl − synop −0.5 2.3 2.4 1.1 14 180

AA25 − synop −0.4 2.5 2.5 1.2 13.9 180

ECMWF − synop 0.8 2.7 2.9 1.6 15.5 180

01.12.2018 − 28.02.2019

BODØ VI

78



0

5

10

15

20

idate

01.12.2018 − 31.12.2018

mm


0

5

10

15

20

idate

01.01.2019 − 31.01.2019

mm


0

5

10

15

20

idate

01.02.2019 − 28.02.2019

mm

Min Mean Max Std N

synop: 06,18 0 1.6 13.6 2.5 180

MEPSctrl: 12+18,+30 0 1.7 15.3 2.7 180

ECMWF: 12+18,+30 0 2.7 21.8 3.6 180


MEPSctrl − synop 0.1 1.7 1.8 1 8.2 180

ECMWF − synop 1.1 2.3 2.5 1.4 10.4 180

01.12.2018 − 28.02.2019

ØRLAND III

79



0

5

10

15

20

25

idate

01.12.2018 − 31.12.2018

mm


0

5

10

15

20

25

idate

01.01.2019 − 31.01.2019

mm


0

5

10

15

20

25

idate

01.02.2019 − 28.02.2019

mm

Min Mean Max Std N

synop: 06,18 0 2.4 26.7 4 180

MEPSctrl: 12+18,+30 0 2.3 22.7 4 180

ECMWF: 12+18,+30 0 2.5 19.3 3.7 180


MEPSctrl − synop −0.1 2.4 2.4 1.3 12.6 180

ECMWF − synop 0 2.2 2.2 1.2 11.2 180

01.12.2018 − 28.02.2019

BERGEN − FLORIDA

80



0

5

10

15

idate

01.12.2018 − 31.12.2018

mm


0

5

10

15

idate

01.01.2019 − 31.01.2019

mm


0

5

10

15

idate

01.02.2019 − 28.02.2019

mm

Min Mean Max Std N

synop: 06,18 0 0.6 11.4 1.5 180

MEPSctrl: 12+18,+30 0 1 17.5 2.2 180

ECMWF: 12+18,+30 0 1.7 16.9 2.6 180


MEPSctrl − synop 0.4 1.7 1.7 0.7 16.2 180

ECMWF − synop 1.1 1.9 2.2 1.3 13.4 180

01.12.2018 − 28.02.2019

LÆRDAL IV

81



0

5

10

15

idate

01.12.2018 − 31.12.2018

mm


0

5

10

15

idate

01.01.2019 − 31.01.2019

mm


0

5

10

15

idate

01.02.2019 − 28.02.2019

mm

Min Mean Max Std N

synop: 06,18 0 0.8 11 2 180

MEPSctrl: 12+18,+30 0 1.2 15.1 2.5 180

ECMWF: 12+18,+30 0 1.2 12.7 2.5 180


MEPSctrl − synop 0.4 1.4 1.5 0.7 7.5 180

ECMWF − synop 0.5 1.4 1.4 0.7 6.7 180

01.12.2018 − 28.02.2019

GARDERMOEN

82



0

10

20

30

40

50

idate

01.12.2018 − 31.12.2018

mm


0

10

20

30

40

50

idate

01.01.2019 − 31.01.2019

mm


0

10

20

30

40

50

idate

01.02.2019 − 28.02.2019

mm

Min Mean Max Std N

synop: 06,18 0 2.7 55 7.6 180

MEPSctrl: 12+18,+30 0 1.8 30.5 4 180

ECMWF: 12+18,+30 0 2 29.5 4.2 180


MEPSctrl − synop −0.9 5.7 5.7 1.4 51.2 180

ECMWF − synop −0.7 5.6 5.6 1.4 48.6 180

01.12.2018 − 28.02.2019

NELAUG

83

mariken homleid and frank thomas tveter · orbiting noaa and metop satellites. gnss were introduced...

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