Maria Ritola, Demos Helsinki

Source: BBC

Varastot vähissä

Source:

SPREAD

Baseline

Research 2011

The Green Leap

Päästöt - 80 %

Energian-kulutus

Talous

Elintaso

Hyvinvointi

2012 2050

Lähde: VNK, Tulevaisuusselonteko 2009

Tänne pitäisi siis päästä

Kuinka paljonon kestävä elämäntapa?

’

Teksti: EEA Consumption and Environment (2010)

Consumption pressure per EUR spent

Kulutusperusteiset päästöt

Lähde: Suomen ympäristökeskus, Ari Nissinen, 2009

Lähde: Envimat -projekti

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Kuinka paljon on 27 tonnia?

= 13 700 km ajoa yksin autolla tai= 82 100 km julkisillatai= 164 m2 lämmitettyä pinta-alaatai= 2737 kg lihapullia

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Kestävä taso 2050: 8 tonnia

• laskettu per eurooppalainen

• 6–8t/ihminen/vuosi = 10t - julkinen kulutus

• n. 20 kg per päivä

• Kutsutaan myös ”ekologiseksi selkärepuksi” - tällä hetkellä kannamme keskimäärin 100 kg päivittäin.

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Mistä 8 tonnia koostuu?

• 3,0 t ravinto• 1,6 t asuminen • 0,5 t kodin laitteet• 2,0 t liikkuminen ja turismi• 0,4 t vapaa-aika• 0,5 t muut kulutustarpeet

Tämä on vain yksi esimerkki 8 tonnin jakautumisesta. Todellisuudessa osuudet vaihtelevat mm. ihmisten kulutustottumusten, elämäntilanteen ja preferenssien mukaan.

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8 tonnin elämäntapa

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Mitä hyötyä teknologian kehityksestä?

• 500 km yksin autolla

• 3000 km julkisilla liikennevälineillä

• 6 m2 lämmitettyä pinta-alaa

• 100 kg lihapullia

1 tonni tänään• 700 km yksin autolla

• 5000 km julkisilla liikennevälineillä

• 15 m2 lämmitettyä pinta-alaa

• 250 kg soija-kasvispullia

1 tonni 2050

Miksi teknologinen kehitys ei yksinomaan riitä?

”Technological efficiency may actually lead to increased net consumption of resources”

Wackernagel & Rees: Our ecological footprint

REBOUND

Source: Odyssee (Enerdata 2011)

Reboundin vaikutuksesta menetetään 60 %

tehokkuushyödyistä

Bernd, Germany

55,1t

Kirsti, Finland

38,7t

Iria, Spain

24,8t

Péter, Hungary

8,8t

On siis ymmärrettävä, kuinka elämäntavat muuttuvat

8 | SPREAD Sustainable lifestyles 2050 Counting Backwards Workshop 24th – 25th November 2011 in Tuusula, Finland | 9

Start here!The goal of the SPREAD 2050 Counting backwards workshop is to create four alternative scenarios on future of sustainable lifestyles. In order to make these scenarios differ from each other, we have defined four future landscapes through which the scenarios are constructed.

Starting point for your alternative futures

Pandemic technology

Endemic technology

Meritocracy Human-centrism

These landscapes are based on two fundamental assumptions of variables that define societies. The assumptions are:

Technology is either pandemic or endemic.The governing principle of the society is either human-centric or meritocratic.

We believe that sustainable societies are achievable within all the four alternative future landscapes (pre-sented on the next opening). Your task is to find out how.

Pandemic technologyGlobally there are a few dominant technologies for each task or human need. Building, transportation, energy, and communication exist everywhere in a similar man-ner. There’s fierce competition in global markets and commercial dominance yields huge rewards. Technol-ogy of 2011 could be called pandemic. Everyone’s on facebook and drives a car (produced by a few global manufacturers) running on petrol or diesel fuel (globally

exchanged goods).

Human-centrismA human-centric society circles around wid-ening the use of human capital in all its forms. Both civic and public use of skills is valued. Everyone has something valuable to give or to do. Society’s success depends on all of its members and their ability to be good citizens, family members, neighbours and profession-als. There is some division of labour, but self-improvement through leisure is also very much appreciated: e.g. family time, active consump-tion, civic activities, handicraft, arts. You do what you can – and feel motivated to.

MeritocracyA meritocratic society circles around profes-sional skills. The most commercially valu-able professional skills are engines of the economy. Holders of those professions are being paid accordingly. Policies and struc-tures of society are customized to facilitate work of the leading industries and profes-sions. Division of labour is at its extreme. You do only what you’re really good at.

Endemic technologyThe tools, infrastructures, and solutions we use are born and grown locally: technology harnesses local condi-tions, resources, and peculiarities. Local living condi-tions rule technology. Where there is wood, houses are built of logs – where days are extremely hot, people live in tents. The corpus of global science and technology is wide, yet applications are highly local. The economy is driven by efficiency and innovations gained through

thinking locally.

8 | SPREAD Sustainable lifestyles 2050 Counting Backwards Workshop 24th – 25th November 2011 in Tuusula, Finland | 9

Start here!The goal of the SPREAD 2050 Counting backwards workshop is to create four alternative scenarios on future of sustainable lifestyles. In order to make these scenarios differ from each other, we have defined four future landscapes through which the scenarios are constructed.

Starting point for your alternative futures

Pandemic technology

Endemic technology

Meritocracy Human-centrism

These landscapes are based on two fundamental assumptions of variables that define societies. The assumptions are:

Technology is either pandemic or endemic.The governing principle of the society is either human-centric or meritocratic.

We believe that sustainable societies are achievable within all the four alternative future landscapes (pre-sented on the next opening). Your task is to find out how.

Pandemic technologyGlobally there are a few dominant technologies for each task or human need. Building, transportation, energy, and communication exist everywhere in a similar man-ner. There’s fierce competition in global markets and commercial dominance yields huge rewards. Technol-ogy of 2011 could be called pandemic. Everyone’s on facebook and drives a car (produced by a few global manufacturers) running on petrol or diesel fuel (globally

exchanged goods).

Human-centrismA human-centric society circles around wid-ening the use of human capital in all its forms. Both civic and public use of skills is valued. Everyone has something valuable to give or to do. Society’s success depends on all of its members and their ability to be good citizens, family members, neighbours and profession-als. There is some division of labour, but self-improvement through leisure is also very much appreciated: e.g. family time, active consump-tion, civic activities, handicraft, arts. You do what you can – and feel motivated to.

MeritocracyA meritocratic society circles around profes-sional skills. The most commercially valu-able professional skills are engines of the economy. Holders of those professions are being paid accordingly. Policies and struc-tures of society are customized to facilitate work of the leading industries and profes-sions. Division of labour is at its extreme. You do only what you’re really good at.

Endemic technologyThe tools, infrastructures, and solutions we use are born and grown locally: technology harnesses local condi-tions, resources, and peculiarities. Local living condi-tions rule technology. Where there is wood, houses are built of logs – where days are extremely hot, people live in tents. The corpus of global science and technology is wide, yet applications are highly local. The economy is driven by efficiency and innovations gained through

thinking locally.

Super Champs Governing the Commons

Local Loops Empathetic Communities

Lyhyet työmatkat, asuminen kaupunkien ytimessä

Vahvat roolimallit

Rationaaliset valinnat käyttäjälähtöisesti muotoillulla datalla

Kestävien elämäntapojen ratkaisut

Learning, not earning

Avoin data ja toimiva hintamekanismi

Vertaistuotanto, joukkoistaminen, jakaminen, mikrotyö

Teknologialla varustetut laitteet ja rakennukset: ainutlaatuinen kulutusdata

Kulutuksen personointi 3D-printtauksella

Virtuaalinen turismi ja uuden sukupolven tietokonepelit

Ubiikki teknologia

Kestävien elämäntapojen ratkaisut

Liikkumisen kaikki vaihtoehdot samassa järjestelmässä

Kestävien elämäntapojen ratkaisut

Kiltatoiminta ja käyttäjälähtöiset ratkaisut: craftsmanship

Rikas palveluntarjonta, korjattavat laitteet

Jaetut yhteiset tilat ja laitteet

Vahva työyhteisö

Paikallinen resurssikierto, energiantuotanto ja cradle-to-cradle

Kestävien elämäntapojen ratkaisut

Public-private-people (PPP) yhteistyöJaetut tilat, ei uutta rakennustuotantoa

Yhteiskehittäminen innovaatiojärjestelmän ytimessä

DIY energian- ja ruoantuotanto sekä tilojen retrofittingFunktionaaliset, joustavat tilankäyttöratkaisut kodeissa

Rikas sosiaalinen elämä, aktiiviset yhteisöt

KIITOS!

Demos HelsinkiTutkija Maria Ritola

www.demos.fitwitter: @mariaritolamaria.ritola@demos.fi

www.slideshare.com/demoshelsinki