marek cierpiał-wolan, phd statistical office in rzeszów
TRANSCRIPT
Marek Cierpiał-Wolan, PhD
Statistical Office in Rzeszów
TOWARDS COHERENT STATISTICAL SYSTEMS OF TRANSBORDER AREAS
CASE STUDY OF INTERNAL AND EXTERNAL EASTERN BORDER OF THE EUROPEAN UNION
PRESENTATION PLAN
1. Towards coherent research system for transborder areas
2. The structure of comprehensive surveys
3. Comprehensive surveys - methodology and results
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3
SOCIO-ECONOMIC PROCESSES IN TRANSBORDER AREAS
INTEGRATION DISINTEGRATION
HIGHER INTENSITY OF NON-REGISTERED SOCIO-ECONOMIC PHENOMENA
DEEPENING FAILURES IN INFORMATION SYSTEMS(especially concerning transborder areas)
DIFFERENCES IN POTENTIALS
INCREASE IN INTERACTIONS BETWEEN OBJECTS
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TOWARDS COHERENT RESEARCH SYSTEM FOR TRANSBORDER AREAS
Delimitationof transborder
areas
Monitoringof socio-economic
phenomena
Comprehensivesurveys
Transborder
metadatabaseMethodology
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Household surveye.g. tourism, quality of life
Survey at the EU’s borderson the territory of Poland
External borders Internal borders
Questionnaire surveyat the border
Traffic intensity survey Questionnaire surveyin the vicinity of the border
(e.g. shopping centres,service centres,petrol stations)
Questionnaire survey(seaports, airports, railway)
common questionnaire
COMPREHENSIVE SURVEYS
Enterprise surveye.g. bussines tendency survey, financial health survey
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COMPREHENSIVE SURVEYSTYPOLOGY OF BORDER CROSSINGS
Border sections with particular countries are selected - within each of the section, the crossings whose participation in the movement of people is more than 1%.
Using Ward's method these crossings are grouped according to particular sections of the border into subsets with high internal similarity due to selected characteristics: size of total cross-border traffic, the percentage of foreigners crossing the border, the proportion of passenger cars in cross-border traffic of vehicles.
Border crossings for the survey are drawn within the groups.Choosing the border crossings, the geographical distance between the selected crossings is additionally included.
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COMPREHENSIVE SURVEYSQUESTIONNAIRE SURVEY AT THE BORDER
Survey of goods and services turnover at the European Union’s
external border
The purpose - expenses incurred by foreigners in Poland and the Poles abroad on the purchase of goods and services, purpose and duration of stay, frequency of crossing the border, etc.
The survey covers the turnover of goods not registered in customs documents.
It is conducted on a sample of about 1% (about 120 thousand people).
It is a non-frame survey (an elusive population).
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COMPREHENSIVE SURVEYSQUESTIONNAIRE SURVEY AT THE BORDER
The questionnaire survey is carried out in quarter periods, in selected days ofa week chosen from the total number of days in a given period (7 times in the quarter).
A stratified two-stage sampling is used• The strata were determined according to the days of the week as well as
border crossings and kind of traffic. • First, the days undergoing survey are drawn by simple random sampling
then, persons are drawn out of those who cross the border by systematic sampling.In case the selected person refuses to participate in the survey, the next person is surveyed.
The 24-hour traffic intensity of the target population was examined on the basis on the pilot survey to define representative survey intervals. For individual border crossings sampling intervals were determined taking into account the projected volume of traffic at individual crossings.
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SURVEY AT THE EUROPEAN UNION’S EXTERNAL BORDER
Expenses on the purchase of goods incurred by foreigners in Poland and Poles abroad who crossed the EU’s external border on the territory of Poland by countries in 2014
Ukraine
Belarus
Russia
0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000
51.0
26.3
133.5
1,861.7
874.0
459.2
Foreigners Poles
millions USD
Countries:
Expenses:
Ukraine
Belarus
Russia
01020304050
2.3
3.0
0.6
44.7
41.1
4.9
Foreigners expenses/export relation
Poles expenses/import relation
%
Countries:
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Expenses on the purchase of goods incurred by foreigners in Poland and Poles abroad who crossed the EU’s external border on the territory of Poland
SURVEY AT THE EUROPEAN UNION’S EXTERNAL BORDER
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 20140
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
Foreigners Poles
millions USD
Years
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EXPENSES OF FOREIGNERS IN POLAND AND POLES ABROAD WHO CROSSED THE EU’S EXTERNAL BORDER IN 2014
SPATIAL BREAKDOWN
Lubelskie Podlaskie Podkarpackie Warmińsko-mazurskie 0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
35.0
40.0
45.042.6
19.6
14.7
7.7
2.50.7 0.8
7.3
expanses-to-export ratio expanses-to-import ratio
%
Regions (NUTS 2)
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COMPREHENSIVE SURVEYSHOUSEHOLD SURVEY
The surveys covers expenses incurred by Poles and residents on the purchase of goods and services, purpose and duration of stay, frequency of crossing the border, booking of the trip, use of a tour operator or travel agency, number of residents not participating in tourism for personal purposes, etc.
The results will be used by the Central Statistical Office, the Polish National Bank, the Ministry of Sport and Tourism as well as for the needs of the balance of payments.
It is conducted on a sample of about 0.14%.(over 18 thousand households/13.5 million in whole country)
The questionnaire survey is carried out in quarter periods.
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COMPREHENSIVE SURVEYS HOUSEHOLD SURVEY - SAMPLE DESIGN
Households for the survey are selected at random from census sampling frame by two-step sampling with stratification on the first step (strata were defined by subregions and size classes of towns).
Strata which include border areas are divided into two parts: the border part (up to 30 km from the border) and the central part.
Units of the first step are census enumeration areas and units of the second step are dwellings (from each unit of the first step five dwellings are drawn).
Due to the nature of the survey half of the sample is allocated to the border part and the other half to the central part. Within each of these two parts the allocation is proportional to the number of households in the stratum.
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the population of people who travel abroad is a small subset of the population of all households in the border area - probability of selecting a household whose members travel abroad is small;
necessity of using a modified technique of collecting questionnaires, maintaining at the same time the principles of a representative selection of households for the survey;
the "random route" technique to collect questionnaires - when it is impossible to conduct the interview the interviewer goes to the next apartment to make an interview in accordance with the appropriate algorithm for the selection of subsequent flats, visiting a maximum of six households – why six?
COMPREHENSIVE SURVEYS
RANDOM ROUTE TECHNIQUE FOR COLLECTING QUESTIONNAIRES
algorithm
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How is this number calculated?
The number of maximum searches has been determined on the basis of the number of vehicles crossing the border and the number of households in border units on LAU level 1 (powiat).
Based on registration numbers, the households which participated in trips were selected, then they were compared with the total number of households in the border units. (The analyses showed that households which cross the border make it 4 times a week on average).
COMPREHENSIVE SURVEYS
RANDOM ROUTE TECHNIQUE FOR COLLECTING QUESTIONNAIRES
Th
ree
-pa
rt s
tru
ctu
reTraffic
intensity survey
Direct estimate
Modelling
Extrastatistical sources of information
and expertise
Final estimate of key
variables
Raking
DataBase
Final estimate of all variables
Constrained Least Squares
Method
Preliminaryweights
Finalweights
We
igh
ts c
alib
ratio
n
Questionnaire survey
in households
Questionnaire survey
(seaports, airports, railway)
Questionnaire surveyat the border and in the vicinity
of the border(e.g. shopping centres, service
centres, petrol stations)
SPECIAL PROCEDURE OF DATA PROCESSING
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COMPREHENSIVE SURVEYSRESULTS
Transborder balance of trade Share of transborder balance of tradein GDP
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
0.00.10.20.30.40.5
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COMPREHENSIVE SURVEYSRESULTS
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014100.0
101.0
102.0
103.0
104.0
105.0
106.0
104.9
101,5
103.8104,3
101.9101.5
103.3
0.20
0.06
0.10
0.15
0.04
0.08
0.12
The rate of economic growth
Growth rate of GDP - without transborder balance of trade
Growth rate of GDP - pure share of transborder balance of trade
103,9
101,6
105,1
101,6
104,5
102,0
103,4
QUALITY OF LIFE PILOT SURVEY
Carried out on around 2000 households in Poland and Ukraine including
transborder areas.
Questionnaire - 96 questions on Likert scale.
Subjective assessment of life domains such as social, economic and
intellectual aspects of life, health, activity, community, preferences, prospects
and expectations.
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SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE ASPECTS OF QUALITY OF LIFE SYNTHETIC INDICATORS
Selected objective indicators of quality of life
Average monthly gross wages and salaries Sold production of industry per 1 thous. population Average usable floor area of a dwelling per one inhabitant Registered unemployment rate Proportion of registered unemployed persons in population at
working age Population using wastewater treatment plants in % of total
population Proportion of waste recovered in waste generated Persons unemployed over 24 months per 1 thous. population Full-time and part-time paid teachers in terms of full-time
employment per 1 thous. population Percentage share of schools equipped with computers with the
Internet access Total nursery schools per 1 thous. population Total tertiary schools per 1 thous. population Total students per 1 thous. population Doctors and dental specialists per 1 thous. population Beds in general hospitals per 1 thous. population Nurseries and nursery wards per 1 thous. population Ascertained crimes per 1 thous. inhabitants Proportion of green areas in total area Total respiratory diseases per 100 thous. population Total deaths caused by neoplasms per 100 thous. population Deaths caused by circulatory system diseases per 100 thous.
population
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Subjective assessment of life domains
on Likert scale
Family life Financial situation Friendship Incomes Meeting basic needs Health Achievements General country situation Housing Neighbourhood Available goods and services Prospects Sex life Education level Leisure Job Children Marriage Safety
Polish households near Slovakian border
Polish households near Ukrainian border
Ukrainian households near Polish border
Polish and Ukrainian households in inner area
0,555 0,562 0,584 0,384
QUALITY OF LIFE - DISTORTION MEASURE
Formula
0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 10
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
Polish and Ukrainian households in inner area Ukrainian households along Polish border Ukrainian households along Polish borderPolish households along Slovakian border
Subjective Measure
Ob
ject
ive
Mea
sure
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SUMMARY OF THE METHODS
Frame Sampling Surveyed population
Research instrument
Household Survey Frame
Simple Random Sampling with Stratification
Sample survey Questionnaire
Internal / external border
No frame Systematic Sampling
Sample survey Questionnaire
Vicinity of the border No frame Purposive Sample survey Questionnaire
Border Traffic Survey - - Census survey Register
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Supranational and multidimensional nature and scale of transborder processes
– necessity for coherent research system
Multi-method survey – various sampling methods, research instruments and
techniques, surveyed population
Multi-stage estimation – combining various statistical and mathematical
procedures
Unexpected results of comprehensive surveys and possible use on local
regional, national and international level
Cooperation between countries (specification of the most important endo- and exogenous factors affecting the economy and regional development, standardization of methods and forms of monitoring and survey, etc.)
Creating a uniform information infrastructure of transborder areas – the base of knowledge on transborder areas.
CONCLUSIONS
where:
si - subjective unitarized synthetic index,
oi - objective unitarized synthetic index.
This measure takes values from 0 to 1. In the case of using unitarized indices for ranking units it has the following interpretation: it equals 0 if observed data is a perfect match with the model; it equals 1, otherwise.
It is based on unitarized subjective and objective indices of quality of life. Its construction allows one to measure the distance between observed data and the model.
DISTORTION MEASURE
"Random route" technique for collecting questionnaires
In the case of households not taking part in travelling, the interviewer moves to another one and conduct a survey to the last (eighth) step and proceeds to the next starting point.
In order to maintain the randomness of sampling the interviewer should keep to the following four rules:
always to the right; always in a clockwise direction; always from the top to the bottom; always within the surveyed territorial unit.
PILOT SURVEYS HOUSEHOLD SURVEY
CONSTRAINED LEAST SQUARES METHOD
Let x, w, c, D be a vector of initial weight, final weights, constraints and
variance-covariance matrix, respectively. The objective in least squares
problem with linear constarints is to provide a solution for minimizing a sum
of squares (w - x)T D (w - x) with respect to linear constarints Hw = c.Using method of Lagrange multipliers we obtain the solution o the form
w = x + D -1H’(HD -1H’) -1(c - Hx)
COMPREHENSIVE SURVEYS – HOUSEHOLD SURVEY SAMPLE DESIGN
Approximately 1600 address points were drawn by the European Union's external border on the territory of Poland. Using of the method employed in most surveys, information on only one one-day trip to Russia, two one-day trips to Belarus and 23 one-day trips to Ukraine was obtained during the collection of questionnaires.
Standard procedureThe method used in most surveys consists in drawing units from a given frame including a reserve sample. In the course of interviews the interviewer goes only to the drawn points where he implements the interview. In a situation when the interview cannot be carried out in a given place, the interviewer returns to this place twice.