MARCSMARCSMarine Accident Risk

Calculation System

Accidents Modelled

Ship-ship collisions Powered grounding Drift grounding Fire and explosion while underway Structural failure/foundering

Structure of MARCSAccident

Consequence DataAccident/IncidentFrequency Data

Accident FrequencyFactors

Accident ConsequenceFactors

AccidentFrequencies

AccidentConsequence

Calculator

Results

AccidentFrequencyCalculator

ShippingLane Data

EnvironmentalData

Event TreeAnalysis

Fault TreeAnalysis

OR OR

Tanker

GenCar

Bulk

Ferry

Oil Tanker Lanes - Case 1

< 0.1 Vessels / day0.1 - 0.5 Vessels / day0.5 - 1 Vessels / day1 - 5 Vessels / day5 - 10 Vessels / day> 10 Vessels / day

1,0e-1 - 1,0e-6Accidents per year

1,0e-6 - 1,0e-51,0e-5 - 1,0e-41,0e-4 - 1,0e-31,0e-3 - 1,0e-2>1,0 e-2

CollisionPowered

Grounding Drift GroundingFire and

Explosion Structuralfailure

Ferry

Bulk

Tanker

Gcar

0,0000

2,0000

4,0000

6,0000

8,0000

10,0000

12,0000

Num

ber o

f acc

iden

ts p

er y

ear

RATIO OF PREDICTED ACCIDENT FREQUENCIES TO

HISTORICAL ACCIDENT FREQUENCES

MARCS/Historical Collision StructuralFailure

Fire/Explosion

PoweredGrounding

DriftGrounding

Tanker 0.41 0.28 0.23 0.89 5.41

General Cargo 0.62 0.25 0.15 0.67 5.45

Bulk 0.23 0.10 0.06 0.60 4.57

Ferry 0.22 0.12 0.02 54.89 0.41