marco tronchetti provera - mtp broader view, selective choices
TRANSCRIPT
AGENDA
3
TARGETS 2011-2013
WHY A NEW PLAN?
PIRELLI TODAY
WHAT WE WILL NOT DO
SCENARIO FOR THE 2011-2015 PLAN
PIRELLI IN 2015
4
TRANSITION TO A PURE TYRE COMPANY ACCOMPLISHED
Tyres: ~98% of 2010 revenues
Separation from the Real Estate Business in October accomplished
Disposal of non core investments (Broadband Solutions, Telecom Italia, Alcatel Lucent Submarine, Oclaro)
Pirelli & C transition to a “pure tyre” company accomplished:
PZero Moda/Fashion, sustain premium strategy and the Pirelli powerbrand
Eco-Tech + Ambiente: strengthen Pirelli’s commitment to “Green”
Revenues 2010E
Non Tyre2%
Tyre 98%
2010: TARGETS OF OLD PLAN ACHIEVEDONE YEAR IN ADVANCE
*Before dividends
Plan
2009-11
Actual results
3.9
4.1
5.0-5.5%
7.4%
~0.7*
0.5 <0.7~4.8 >7.5% >0.6
2009 actual results, 2010 FY estimates and 2011 targets (old plan) have been adjusted excluding Pirelli Real Estate and Pirelli Broadband
(<0.6 before
divid.)
€/bln
Leveraging these results, Pirelli has developed the new 2011-2013 industrial plan and the “2015 vision” for the next wave of profitable growth
5
2009A 2010E 2011E (Old Plan)
Rev. Rev. Ebit %Cum
capex 09-10
Rev. Ebit % NFPEbit % NFP NFPCum
Capex 09-11
<0.6*4.4-4.5 <8.0% ~0.7
AGENDA
6
TARGETS 2011-2013
WHY A NEW PLAN?
PIRELLI TODAY
WHAT WE WILL NOT DO
SCENARIO FOR THE 2011-2015 PLAN
PIRELLI IN 2015
KEY INDUSTRY TRENDS
Tyre industry dynamics different from automotive1
Rising role of emerging markets in a context of progressive economic recovery2
Evolving consumption patterns in mature markets widen the “premium” market3
Worldwide premium car park growing(also in emerging markets)4
World economy increasingly divided into trading blocks: rising importance of local-for-local sourcing5
7
TYRE DEMAND LESS DEPENDENT FROM AUTOMOTIVE CYCLE
Car & LCVs
Trucks
Yearly Sales
Mln vehicles
8
844
915936 964
1.023 1.0893.1%
2.7%
5.6%
-1.0%
39
44
3,2 2,9
45 46 50 54
3,2 3,4 4,1 4,5
3.7%
4.0%
7.1%
-3.2%
2010 2011 2013 20152006 2009
Park
2010 2011 2013 20152006 2009
66 64 69 74 84 90
Replacement
OEM
Car & LCV Tyre Sales(Avg Yearly)
Replacement
OEM
Truck Tyre Sales(Avg Yearly)
>80%
<20%
>70%
<30%
1
Source: Global Insight, Eurostat, Anfac, Pirelli estimates
TYRE: RESILIENT PROFITABILITY VS COST FACTORS
9
Avg top Tyre Manufacturers
PBIT margins (1)
Natural rubber price
Synthetic rubber price
100 = Average 2002 prices
(1) Weighted average Top 10 Tyre Companies, Bloomberg
1
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 9M 2010
6,8% 6,8%
8,2%8,7%
7,1%
8,8%
5,3%
5,5%
7,3%
448
203
-6%
-12%
15%
volume growth (2)
(2) Weighted average Michelin, Goodyear, Continental, Pirelli. Source: Company figures
Source: Bloomberg
Ebit %
4.9%
6.4%
2.5%
5.7%
4.6%4.4% 4.3% 4.6%
3.9%
3.1%
1.6%
0.8%
4.3%
8.7%8.8%
5.5%
7.3%
6.6%
3.0%
6.1%6.3%6.2%6.0%6.1%
5.3%
4.0%
5.3%
7.1%
6.8%
8.2%
5.4%
6.9% 6.8%
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010E
TYRE: HIGHER PROFITABILITY AND FASTER REACTIVITY
More profitability and reactivity vs. Auto Manufacturers
Top 10 Tyre Manufacturers Top 10 Autopart Manufacturers Top 10 Auto Manufacturers
10
1
RDE DRIVE GDP RECOVERY
11
Source: ONU, Global Insight
10.1 12.6
LATAM
3,000
4,000
2009 2015
5%
GDP (billion USD)
GDP/capita (‘000 US$ PPP)
33.0
EU
GDP/capita (‘000 US$ PPP)
GDP (billion USD)
18,400
2015
2%
16,400
2009
29.8
14,100
GDP (billion USD)
16,700
2009 2015
45.9 51.2
3%
USA
GDP/capita (‘000 US$ PPP)
10.8 13.8
Russia & CIS
GDP (billion USD)
1,600 2,100
2009 2015
4%
GDP/capita (‘000 US$ PPP)
9.3 11.2
MENA
2,200
2009 2015
3,000GDP (billion USD)
5%
GDP/capita (‘000 US$ PPP)
3.1 4.6
India
GDP (billion USD)
1,300 2,000
2009 2015
8%
GDP/capita (‘000 US$ PPP)
China
6.9 11.0
5,000
8,300
2009 2015
GDP (billion USD)
9%
GDP/capita (‘000 US$ PPP)
GDP real avg. rate of growth 2009-15
MATURE RDE
2
Mln Passenger + Light Commercial Vehicles
PREMIUM GLOBAL CAR PARK CONTINUE TO EXPAND
Source: Global Insight, Pirelli analysis
13
Non Premium Vehicle fitting Premium
8%
11%
10%
2.6%2.6%
5.0%
2.8%
3.1%
5.2%
2.8%2.8%
709
936964
1,023
1,089
2000 2010 2011 2013 2015
10%
4
India
China + ASEAN
COMESA
Brazil
USA
TRADING BLOCKS AND LOCAL-FOR-LOCAL SOURCING
* 35% in 2010, 30% in 2011 and 25% in 2012
2010-12 tariffs** on car & truck tyres from China
Anti-dumping duties levied on imported Chinese car and radial truck tyres
In China, high non tariff barriers
Asean tariffs on Chinese imports likely to last until 2018
Anti-dumping duties on radial tyres imported from China and Thailand (Feb. 010)
Relevant non tariff barriers Low end tyre mix (car+truck)
Preferential trading area forging free trade agree -ments with other African countries & trade blocks
EU Low import tariffs for
tyres … but rising non tariff barriers to low quality imports
Mercosur associate members Asean special partners
14
Russia + CIS High import duties (20%)
5
AGENDA
15
TARGETS 2011-2013
WHY A NEW PLAN?
PIRELLI TODAY
WHAT WE WILL NOT DO
SCENARIO FOR THE 2011-2015 PLAN
PIRELLI IN 2015
Competitive industrial footprint
75% of production made in low cost/high growth countries
Macro-regional player, leader in the high-growth Latam market
“1st Top of Mind brand in Brazil across all industries”
People
Unique and multinational company culture that delivers fast and integrated answers
“People management” through strong commitment at all organizational levels
PIRELLI TODAY
Leading Premium Segment with consolidated relationship
16
Exceptional brand value further enhanced by Formula 1
Wide range of high-end and Green Performance in products (Green 36% of revenues)
AGENDA
17
TARGETS 2011-2013
WHY A NEW PLAN?
PIRELLI TODAY
WHAT WE WILL NOT DO
SCENARIO FOR THE 2011-2015 PLAN
PIRELLI IN 2015
18
PIRELLI IN 2015
will further leverage and grow 3 “intangible assets”:
BRAND
PEOPLE
TECHNOLOGY
1
2
3
*Interbrand Brand Valuation Methodology: economic flows from brand discounted at a rate reflecting brand risk
TOP EXPLOITABLE POTENTIALS FOR OUR BUSINESS
Beyond the product, aspirational and cool
The most popular brand in Brazil for the second year in a row (Oct. 2010)
#1 by “the voice of the customer” JD POWER 2010
Estimate brand value (Oct. 2010): 1,8 bln euro*
PIRELLI IN 2015
19
1
2
3
4
PIRELLI IN 2015
20
“Breakthrough” materials (from renewables; from upstream alliances in rubber)
People
TechnologyIncreasingly flexible and fast processes (PTSM: leading edge stability and integration in compound mixing, next MIRS: from concept to product in < 18 months)
“Empowered” team: a new model of leadership development for the whole management built on 3 pillars:
Leading business
Leading people
Leading change
“Motivated” team (Long Term Incentive program based on cumulated PBIT and cash-flow, with annual MBO partially deferred…)
Young team (average age of 280 Managers < 46)
Multicultural team (15 different nationalities among Management)
People and Technology
2006-2010
1.5
90%
-13 mln low value tyres
PIRELLI IN 2015: LEVERAGING OUR TIMELY INVESTMENTS
€/Bln
21
Cumulated capex
Of which tyre
Rationalization, product mix improvement,
start ups
2011-2015
1.9
99%
+26 mln premium tyres
Premium growth
Year end Capacity (mln pcs)Consumer 55.0Industrial 5.4
2005
56.05.8
2010
70.07.0
2013
80.08.0
2015
+2%+7%
2010 /2005
+26%+21%
+44%+38%
2013 /2010 2015 /2010
- Product mix change
22
PIRELLI IN 2015
About 60% of volumes from our new production facilities mix
Major accomplishments
Specialized “Premium” plants, with top production capacity, in low-cost/high-growth countries
Full premium product range ready for customization and in constant renewal
1
2
3
Rebalanced profitability between regions
* Latam, APAC, Russia, MEA
2010 2015Key indicators
% Revenues in Premium/Specialty segments
66% 73%
% Revenues in RDE* 52% 57%
% Revenues from new production facilities mix
>30% >60%
23
PIRELLI IN 2015
% Revenues from Replacement 75% 76%
a premium player
AGENDA
24
TARGETS 2011-2013
WHY A NEW PLAN?
PIRELLI TODAY
WHAT WE WILL NOT DO
SCENARIO FOR THE 2011-2015 PLAN
PIRELLI IN 2015
Total Revenues
EBITDA%after continuous restructuring
EBIT%after continuous restructuring
€/bln
Green performance on revenues
(2)
~ 4.8 >5.15 >6.05
>8%
36% 39% 47%
>12%
>7.5%
13% ÷ 14%
8.5% ÷ 9.5%
15% ÷ 16%
10.5% ÷ 11.5%
Holding Costs & LTI provisions
Minor Business & other non recurring items
>20 <20 <20
<-10 close to break-even <10
(€/mln) 2010 2011 2013(2)
(1) Excluding Pirelli Re and Broadband
PIRELLI TARGETS: P&L 2011-2013
2010E 2011 2013(1)
25
Cagr 10 - 13
2010E NFP
DIVIDENDS
<0.7
<1.0>0.7
FINANCIAL & FISCAL
CHARGES
OPERATING CASH FLOW
0.30.3
€/bln
Lower tax rate thanks to higher growth in emerging countries(-1pp/-2pp by 2011; -3pp by 2013, -5pp by 2015 vs. 2010FY)
Shareholder remuneration: ~40% distribution of cumulated 2011-2013 Consolidated Net Profit
Fiscal & Dividend policy 2011-2013
PIRELLI TARGET 2013NET FINANCIAL POSITION & 2015 LEVERAGE
Net Debt/Ebitda*
FINANCIAL & FISCAL
CHARGES
1.1X ~1X ~0.6X
OPERATING CASH FLOW
(1.3)
0.7(0.8) 0.8
(1.3)
2013E NFP
2015E NFP
DIVIDENDS
26*After continuous restructuring
DEBT PROFILE
27
already sound today (Sept. 30, 2010) further strengthened by 2015
Liquidity Position 389
Total CommittedLines Not Drawn
1,070
1,459Liquidity Margin
LIQUIDITY PROFILE
€/mln
Other Borrowings MLT Debt Committed Line Drawdown
DEBT MATURITY(1)
Better diversification/optimization of
Gross debt (Capital Market)
Ongoing Debt maturity extension
(e.g. new committed revolving credit facilities)
Gross debt profile (Currency & Interest
Rate) already targeted to reduce volatility
in net financial charges (~65% Fixed and
~35% Floating)€/mln
1,207
Gross Debt 30 Sept.’10
405
628
2010 ye
165
2011 2012 2013 2014 & beyond
126
135
405
146
551 90
266
174
(1) Net of Pirelli RE
Sept. 30, 2010 – Cost of debt ~ 4% p.a.
AGENDA
28
TARGETS 2011-2013
WHY A NEW PLAN?
PIRELLI TODAY
WHAT WE WILL NOT DO
SCENARIO FOR THE 2011-2015 PLAN
PIRELLI IN 2015
WHAT PIRELLI WILL NOT DO IN THE PLAN
OE Vehicles on low pull-through platforms
Capacity investments in the Indian market
Multi-brand portfolio strategy
Big M&A transactions
Capital increase
29
DISCLAIMER
30
This presentation contains statements that constitute forward-looking statements based on Pirelli & C SpA’s current expectations and projections about future events and does not constitute an offer or solicitation for the sale, purchase or acquisition of securities of any of the companies mentioned and is directed to professionals of the financial community. These statements appear in a number of places in this presentation and include statements regarding the intent, belief or current expectations of the customer base, estimates regarding future growth in the different business lines and the global business, market share, financial results and other aspects of the activities and situation relating to the Company. Such forward looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve risks and uncertainties, and actual results may differ materially from those expressed in or implied by these forward looking statements as a result of various factors, many of which are beyond the ability of Pirelli & C SpA to control or estimate precisely. Consequently it is recommended that they be viewed as indicative only. Analysts are cautioned not to place undue reliance on those forward looking statements, which speak only as of the date of this presentation. Pirelli & C. SpA undertakes no obligation to release publicly the results of any revisions to these forward looking statements which may be made to reflect events and circumstances after the date of this presentation, including, without limitation, changes in Pirelli & C. SpA business or acquisition strategy or to reflect the occurrence of unanticipated events. The Manager mandated to draft corporate accounting documents of Pirelli & C. SpA. Francesco Tanzi, attests – as per art.154-bis. comma 2 of the Testo Unico della Finanza (D.Lgs. 58/1998) – that all the accounting information contained in this presentation correspond to the documented results, books and accounting of the Company.