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Food Security & Nutrition Working Group Eastern and Central African Region

Agenda March 20, 2014

Co-Chair: IGAD & FAO

09:30-10:30

Situation Analysis & Outlook:

Food security conditions, hotspots, prices, climate, nutrition & refugees

IPC Regional-Global Strategy Launch

ACF, FAO, FEWSNET, ICPAC, IPC, JRC, UNHCR,

UNICEF, WFP

IPC Global Support Unit

10:30 -11:30 Presentation: Seeing business opportunity where others don’t

Equity Bank

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Current Conditions: Regional Highlights

Mostly stable with specific areas in crisis or emergency (CAR/DRC/South Sudan) and pockets at risk of further deterioration (Burundi, Kenya, Djibouti,

Sudan)

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Current Conditions – Regional HighlightsUganda FEWSNET

The second season harvests from November to January have increased supplies on the market.

Staple food prices are for the most part not declining.

Most agricultural areas in bimodal areas remain at Minimal (IPC Phase 1).

Poor agro pastoral households in Karamoja have entered the lean season one-month early

No decline in IPC phase in due to planned humanitarian assistance from April to June and small ruminant sales

Karamoja stressed but good generally and expectations for good for March-September rains

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Current Conditions – Regional Highlights

Sudan FEWSNET Al JazeeraThe numbers in IPC 3 are expected to increase with the early onset of lean season in Mar/Apr. Unseasonal food-price increases reported as well as reduced labour opportunities Currency falling – unemployment rising and concerns civil stability may be undermined

Generally good conditions but South Kordofan biggest food security concern due to impacts of conflict

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Current Conditions – Regional Highlights

Eritrea JRC The 2013/2014 Bahri rains have been generally satisfactory in North Red Sea RegionNDVI seasonally normal for main pastoral areasPoor rainfall in some cropping areas may lead to below performance (main cropping season for the country occurs later in the year)

Likely - seasonally normal conditions

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Current Conditions – Regional Highlights

Djibouti FEWSNET FAO GoDThe severely food insecure, mainly in pastoral south-eastern areasAnnual inflation has increased slightly to 3.2% in January70% of rural households considered food insecure in Feb 2014, unchanged from 2 years earlier.The October to February Xays/Dadaa rains were mostly normal Decreasing amounts of food aid Southeast Pastoral-Border livelihood zone, Obock Region, and Northwest Pastoral livelihood zone will enter Crisis (IPC Phase 3) Larger food secure populations have been reported around Ville de Djibouti in the past

Most rural areas and households stressed some areas likely to fall into crisis by April

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Current Conditions – Regional Highlights

Burundi FEWSNET FAO GTTOngoing harvests are replenishing household food stocks Price fluctuations continue to be above the seasonal norm. Plant diseases are affecting banana and cassava across the country and are likely to impact on household stocks and increase market prices Most of the country is IPC phase 1 -poor households in the Plateaux Humides could slide into Stressed levels (IPC Phase 2) between March and May/June Chronic issues in Plateaux Humides have worsened as traditional farming is proving inadequate for subsistence let alone improvement for the most vulnerable

Minimal food insecurity, underlying chronic issues in Plateaux Humides may lead to stress

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Current Conditions – Regional HighlightsDRC GTT FAO Pronanut METTELSAT

Prices of staples were reported stable or lower in February than those reported in January. March to May rainfall is expected to be seasonally normal with the possibility of above normal rainfall in the north-eastThe national nutrition surveillance system reported 10 health zones out of 244 reporting as “alert” with the others as “watch” or “under control”conflict and displacement along the border of CAR (provinces of Equateur and Orientale Province), as well as armed groups in the Kivus continues to be cause of concern & food insecurity

Poor but stable conditions with CAR border conflict and displacement continuing to cause concern and food insecurity

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Current Conditions – Regional Highlights

Kenya GoK FEWSNET FAO ASAL Alliance OXFAMBelow average short-rains production affecting food security but most of the country remains stressed (IPC Phase 2)

Prices of maize firmed up in recent months despite the newly harvested crops.

The long rains are likely to be normal to above normal for the western half of the country and normal to below normal in the east.

Food markets in Turkana reported to be operating normally

Food security assessments in Turkana, Marsabit, Mandera and Wajir expose extreme levels of poverty and vulnerability in parts of these communities moreso than impacts of “drought” – the most vulnerable have no livestock and depend on charcoal/fire wood, petty trade and casual labour

Stable seasonal conditions for most of the country with chronic vulnerabilities (mostly poverty) leading to pockets of crisis.

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Current Conditions: Hotspots & Watch

HOTSPOTS

CAR (Conflict, Displacement, Access) FAO

millions at risk of a full-scale food and nutrition security crisis due to low production in 2013 coupled with prevailing chronic countrywide malnutrition, extreme poverty and inappropriate sanitation

South Sudan (Conflict, Displacement) AllAfrica FS Cluster

IGAD and Egypt sending troops. Concerns for displaced as rainy season looms.

Hotspots

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Outlook: April to June 2014

Seasonally normal lean period anticipated which should dissipate with the coming of the rains. Food & nutrition security crises

continue in South Sudan and CAR

Outlook

Easing of seasonal deterioration and improving with the onset of the rains• Key factors of food security performing as per seasonal norm • dry season and intensifying lean season conditions unlikely to vary from the

seasonal norm• Seasonal deterioration in the IPC phase classification in parts of Somalia,

Ethiopia, Sudan and Kenya is anticipated• The onset of March to May rains in the region will trigger seasonal food

security and nutrition improvements• Rains expected to be near normal for much of the region and below normal

in the eastern parts of the region

Concern remains focused on IDPs in South Sudan and CAR as well as refugees originating from those countries and housed in neighbouring countries

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Population in Food Insecurity Crisis or Emergency (IPC Phase 3 & 4)

Seasonal increase reported in Somalia.

Current Conditions

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Current Situation: Vegetation and AgricultureClimate

• Impact of abnormally good February rainfall visible in large parts of Kenya and Ethiopia. Pastoral areas in Turkana and close to border with Somalia still very dry.

• Below average NDVI in Uganda, linked to high temperatures?• Pastoral areas in North West and North East Somalia slightly better than seasonal

average

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Climate

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ENSO-neutral conditions are expected to continue through the Northern Hemisphere spring 2014

Climate

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Consensus Regional Climate Outlook for March to May 2014

Climate

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Projected global climate forcing processes beyond May 2014

Most computer model forecasts indicate likely development of a weak El Niño during the second half of the year 2014.

Updates will be released on regular basis and detailed climate outlook for the June to August 2014 rainfall season will be provided at the Thirty Seventh Greater Horn of Africa Climate Outlook Forum (GHACOF37) to be held in Khartoum, Sudan in May 2014

Climate

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Refugees

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Refugees

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South Sudan emergencyOutflow• Number of refugees crossing into Ethiopia, Kenya, Sudan and Uganda increased to over

217,911 since 15th December 2013.

IDPs • Number of IDPs, are currently 708,900 (14th March) ,UNMISS reported a drop in the

number of people seeking protection in its bases.Food Security.• April/May rainy season is arriving with full pre-positioning impossible• Most roads/routes to Upper Nile inaccessible. Few routes to Unity, but security challenges• IPC classification and livestock report from FAO very bleak (3.9-4.3 million facing food

insecurity)

Security• Situation remains tense with an increase in reported incidents by UN Security• UN agencies reporting increase in road blocks, searches and harassment• IGAD members have authorized the prompt deployment of the Protection and Deterrent

Force (PDF) as part of the IGAD Monitoring and Verification Mechanism in South Sudan

Fundraising• South Sudan Situation Refugee Appeal has been launched seeking $370.8 million through

December 2014 for an estimated 340,000 South Sudanese refugees.

Refugees

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Nutrition/Food security issuesUganda (81,345 since 15th December)The table below shows the MUAC screening results(as of February 2014) for Camps in

Uganda.

===>Malnutrition rates are increasing due to deteriorating conditions of new arrivals• New arrivals are mentioning that people are trapped in Malakal and Bor without

shelter, food or water• 892 new arrivals last week• All services are in place for protection and assistance, but challenged

Sudan(42,011 refugees).• WFP provided emergency assistance to about 18,000 new arrivals and seeking $3.5

million• About 350 new arrivals from S. Sudan per day in Alagaya and Kilo 10• Screening results show a proxy GAM of above 20%• Minimum Operating Standards are agreed but access remains a challenge

Refugees

Camp Adjumani Arua Kiriyandongo

%GAM 24.3 15.6 16.0

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Nutrition/Food security issuesSouth Sudan (234,304)• 1,634 refugees registered from CAR• Inaccessibility of Upper Nile and Unity camps hinders rainy season food pre-

positioning.• Full ration given in March and prepositioned for April in Unity• In upper Nile, partial ration was given for March and it is not clear if full basket

will be available for April.• Ajoung Thok population at 15,000 and all new arrivals to Yida are transported to

Ajoung for services• Increased tensions between refugees and host community in Maban (Yusuf

Batil) due to allegations of livestock theft

Refugees

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Nutrition/Food security issues

Ethiopia (65,389 since 15th December)• Rate of new arrivals has risen and more are reported to be on their way.• Space constraints and flooding are key concerns • Measles Vaccination and Vitamin A supplementation ongoing in Pagak with 22

suspected cases of measles identified in Pagak, Lare and Leitchuor.• Malnutrition rates in new arrivals to Pagak are critically high (39% GAM).

Relocation of 897 malnourished children and their families to the camps was completed

• Refugees report coming from far away from border and having sought refuge in other parts of South Sudan before finally crossing

Kenya (25,099 since 15th December)• Rate of new arrivals around 360 per day.• Registration done using biometrics and will contribute to efficient and accurate

distributions.• Negotiations still underway for land for new camp.• High number of unaccompanied minors and separated children in Kakuma

(13,437)• WFP reports pipeline stress from April, if more resources are not received or

number of new arrivals exceed planning figure there could be shortfalls

Refugees

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CARPopulation of concern (PoC)• 857,000 IDPs and 16,581 refugees (essentially of DRC and Sudan origin).• 296,164 CAR refugees in Cameroon, Chad, DRC.

Security• The situation still remains volatile.• Plans underway to deploy more international troops and relocation of populations at

risk (as the last resort).

Food security• Funding to ensure continued food distribution to all PoC still a concern;• Food crisis looming due to continued violence, IDPs in M’baiki lack food and water.

Chad(8,000 refugees since Dec 2013)• More influx foreseen if security and humanitarian situation continues to deteriorate.• The refugees lack decent shelter, water and food.• Malnutrition rates in Abgadam camp is deteriorating ,23% GAM as of February due to the

increasing food insecurity.

Cameroon(44,252 refugees since March 2013)• More than 20% of all children arriving are malnourished• Many have walked over a month, hiding in bushes without food or clean water and over 80%

are arriving ill (malaria, URTI, diarrhea). 16 have died in January and February including 6 from SAM.

Refugees

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Registered Refugees/Asylum Seekers & IDPs

Source: UNHCR

Country Refugees / Asylum Seekers IDPs

Burundi 50,641 78,948

CAR 20,336 206,000

Djibouti 23,412 0

DRC 184,472 2,607,407

Eritrea 3,457 0

Ethiopia 409,017 0

Kenya 600,148 0

Rwanda 73,405 0

Somalia 11,270 1,122,559

South Sudan 223,687 401,433

Sudan 163,937 1,873,300

Tanzania 103,179 0

Uganda 215,857 0

TOTAL 2,082,818 6,289,647

Displacement

Stable numbers from January 2014

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Building capacity for better food security programming in emergency and rehabilitation contexts

Workshop Feedback to FSNWG

BUILDING CAPACITIES FOR BETTER...

NUTRITION AND FOOD SECURITY PROGRAMMINGSEED SECURITY ASSESSMENTACCOUNTABILITY TO AFFECTED POPULATIONS

Nutrition

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Conceptual Framework of Malnutrition

Exp

osu

re t

o S

hock

s a

nd

Hazard

s

Capital/ Assets

NaturalPhysicalHuman

EconomicSocial

HH Food Production, Gifts, Exchange, Cash, Earnings, Loans, Savings, Transfers

Context / Framework

Food Availability / Markets

Basic Services and Infrastructure

Political, Economical, Institutional,

Security, Social, Cultural, Gender

Environment

Agro-Ecological Conditions / climate

Household Food Access

Health and Hygiene

Conditions

Care / Health Practices

Individual Food

Intake

Health Status / Disease

NutritionStatus / Mortality

Community / Household

Level

Livelihood Assets

Household Level

Livelihood Outcomes

Livelihood Strategies

Individual LevelFood security Nutrition

security

BUILDING CAPACITIES FOR BETTER...Nutrition

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Key messages

• Food Security and Nutrition are not sectors but common goals,• Need for joint comprehensive food security, nutrition and vulnerability

assessments based on well defined and measurable criteria, • Problem and solution trees (on malnutrition) can be used to clearly define

impact pathwayso There is need for a clear understanding of the livelihoods before building the

problem and solution trees for malnutrition. (Need for a gender focus too)

• A precise M&E system, with clear food security and nutrition indicators, help monitor and evaluate these pathways throughout project cycle,

• Coordination and advocacy should be enhanced at government and policy levels to ensure sustainability ( e.g, SUN Movement),

BUILDING CAPACITIES FOR BETTER...Nutrition

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• Cereal prices remained generally stable or declined in February compared to January 2014 due to improved internal availabilities (GIEWS, Food Price Monitor, Mar 2014)

• But white sorghum prices increased atypically across markets in Sudan and in South Sudan (Fewsnet, Mar 2015)

Uganda• Retail Prices of maize grain declined by 9% in February compared to January 2014

across the country, and by 3% in Karamoja (WFP, Mar 2013);

• Retail prices of sorghum fell by 4% compared, but increased by 12% in Karamoja over the same period.

Food Prices Trends in the Region

Kenya• Wholesale prices of maize in February

increased marginally in Eldoret and Nairobi (+1.65% and +0.3%) compared to Jan 2014 (WFP, Mar 2014).

• However, these prices were significantly higher than levels in Feb 2013 (by 11% in Eldoret, 6% in Kisumu and 8% in Nairobi) (WFP, Mar 2014).

Prices

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Ethiopia• Maize prices remained stable following a

favourable Meher harvest (WFP, Mar 2014).

• But wholesale prices of Teff in Addis increased by 4% due to growing export and increased domestic demand (WFP, Mar 2014).

• Meanwhile there were month-to-month price increases for the main staples across markets in southern, central and eastern Oromia, SNNPR and Tigray

Somalia • Local grain prices increased in February due

to reduced stock levels following below normal Deyr 2013/2014 production in southern regions (FSNAU, Feb 2014);

• But prices of maize and sorghum considerably above Feb 2013 levels (GIEWS, March 2014).

• Prices of imported commodities (rice, sugar, vegetable oil & wheat flour) continued declining on monthly and annual basis (FSNAU, Feb 2014).

CPI Monthly trends (CPI March 2007=100) – FSNAU, Feb 2014

Prices

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Regional Seasonal Calendar

Note: This calendar is for illustrations only as it is not yet updated to reflect current changes

Source: http://www.disasterriskreduction.net/east-central-africa/fsnwg

Response Analysis

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Current situation Feb/Mar 2014

Hazards • Insecurities/devolution• Rain delayed/early cessation• Longer/hotter dry season• Southern Turk. - abnormal migration• Locust (north-east areas)

Impact With typical levels of food aid – all wealth groups in all LZ will remain in IPC phase 2 (stressed)

• KAP – irrigation not working• TBP – very poor - dependent on aid

(42%) & food pipeline; • Family splitting• Levels of current cash transfer are

adequate (around Ksh1200 per month)

Assessment to determine current situation & forecast for the next season - ASAL Alliance

Response Analysis

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Predictive analysis: Next 6 months if LR fail - Impact on TCP & TBP• With typical levels of food/cash aid, the poorer groups are stressed but cope by

expanding on bush products & labour by 5-10%.• Interestingly the better-off groups will have small threshold deficits SD 4% and LD 15% as

they receive less aid and are more affected by drought• In the absence of food/cash transfers, the better-off groups cash equivalents to cover

deficits is around Ksh 4-5,000 per month

Response Analysis

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Response Options (Pros & Cons Analysis)Response Option Approp. for

expected risk level

Relevance to devel’p pathway

Impacts on other sectors

Cash transfer - Scale up of HSNP cash requirements to fill deficit gap for all wealth groups

Positive Negative Positive

Food Aid - Advanced information on WFP delivery plan for GFD

Neutral Negative? Negative

School lunches/milk Positive Positive PositiveWater trucking Neutral Negative NegativeWater surge at strategic water points

Positive Positive Positive

Public works (short-term job creation)

Positive Neutral Positive

Paid skills training Positive Positive PositiveHealth surge Positive Positive PositiveLivestock trade Neutral Positive Positive?Micro-finance Neutral Positive Positive

Response Analysis

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Longer-term considerations & advocacyLonger-term options/objectivesSupport NDMA to do better seasonal predictive analysis to improve early responseSupport County Government in planning for urbanization

Infra-structure – roads & irrigation schemes

Addressing environmental impacts of firewood and charcoal Mapping of appropriate water sources and maintenance needs – links to livelihoods & migration routesEducation for employment opportunities

Job creation/engagement with private sector

ADVOCACY ACTIONS1) Engagement with County Government, links with contingency plans 2) De-block markets3) De-block migration routes4) The role of food aid with functioning markets

Response Analysis

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RodentsMoulds

Agents of postharvest grain loss

Insects

What are cereal postharvest losses ?Technology

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What are postharvest losses? cont’d

Quality loss

Lost opportunityfor sales in higher

value markets

Weight loss

Lost from the PH chain

Health and

nutritional losses

Not fit for humans

to consume

The value of quality losses may be greater than weight losses

Response AnalysisTechnology

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Links in the postharvest chain considered by APHLISResponse AnalysisTechnology

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PHL profile figures

Seasonal factors

Annual data from APHLIS network

Data from published and ‘grey’ literature

APHLIS algorithmAPHLIS cereal weightloss estimates by province

Maps

Tables

What is APHLIS?Response AnalysisTechnology

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APHLIS offers the only overview of grain postharvest weight losses and is used in support of – agricultural policy formulation

identifying opportunities to improve value chains

improving food security (cereal supply estimates)

monitoring and evaluating loss reduction activities

providing recommendations on how to reduce weight and quality losses

How is APHLIS used?Response AnalysisTechnology

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Maps of % weight lossResponse AnalysisTechnology

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Maps of loss density

MT/km2

Response AnalysisTechnology

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1. Must seek sustainability as an established element of African agricultural information systems

2. Must find better approaches to data gathering from the ground and opportunities for automatic data gathering

3. Must continue to engage in research and to develop features that serve the needs of loss reduction

4. Must continue to develop relationships with institutions that are actually implementing loss reduction

Where next for APHLIS

http://www.aphlis.net/

Technology

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Technology & Innovation of FSNWG members work

Food Security Briefs• April WFP• May OXFAM• June FEWSNET

Response Options Working group• Begin work in March

FAOs Co-Chair• Stephen McDowell will finish his work with FAO/FSNWG end of March• Paul Opio will assume FAO’s responsibilities as co-chair

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Upcoming EventsNext FSNWG Meeting:ISS, Nairobi Thursday, April 17, 2014

Early Warning SystemsSouth Sudan March/April TBCCAR March/April TBCUganda (Karamoja) April TBC

MASMeeting 25 March

Whose Resilience?UNICEF – Situating Basic Services in the Resilience DiscussionNairobi (Southern Sun) 21 March

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March Presentation

FSNWG 2014/15 Whose Resilience?• Changing livelihoods – changes the pathways to “resilience”• Begin mapping future livelihoods and “life objectives/aspirations” – particularly with

youth• Understand how parents and children intend to realise (plans/strategies) their

“objectives/aspirations”• Traditional subsistence is giving to commercial production and urbanisation

o How can the transition to urbanisation/settlement occur successfully/safelyo How can people containing to live in rural areas do so with greater dignity,

security and success?

Seeing business opportunities where others don’tEsther Muiruri esther.muiruri@equitybank.co.ke General Manager Marketing-Agri Business, Equity Bank

There is enormous potential in rural areas – both for those currently farming as well as the youth who will likely move on to different ventures. We must only understand how to do business with them to unlock that potential